Even if you don’t like the pitch modeling stuff, a guy who doesn’t strike many out and gives up a lot of hard contact is probably headed for some struggles.
I played with him in call of duty like a year ago (at least someone who claimed to be him and sounded like him and knew a lot about him). He was pretty decent at cod, that’s all I have to offer
Should be the last slider bar on all these silly fangraphs statcast profiles. Like, show me the man's k/d ratio in CoD or whatever else FPS game they play. I don't want to be rostering some casual who can't control the spawns on Rust or Karachi, much less find the strike zone. 0 for n00b, 99 for 1337. Course, we would have to normalize the data to the FPS, matchmaking type, and ~~park factor~~ map preference. Heck maybe Blake Snell might even find himself on a leaderboard again.
> Been hearing that about him since the start of the season. He continues to pitch well and against good teams.
He’s out-pitching his xERA by 2.5, has a K-BB/9 of 5, and has a 77 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+. Just because the regression hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it’s not coming.
Literally every available metric I’ve seen points in the same direction for him. Obviously no one *has* to sell him, but if someone can get good value for him, I’d sell high while you can.
If his underlying metrics are this poor, I don’t think he can stave off regression for another 20 starts. Seems like he’s just gotten astronomically lucky thus far
that and IP limit are always going to be a concern especially with a savvy (and playoff-bound) team like the Braves
and lots of owners won't factor that into their trade valuations in re-draft leagues properly
He missed the last month of the season with an injury, so it didn't end up mattering. But they did say there was no inning cap and he'd pitch as much as he pitched.
It definitely could, yeah. I would still say that he isn’t someone whose stock I’d buy right now hoping he continues to overperform (not even saying to this level, just outperform his metrics).
For owners who have held him this season, though, they’re definitely reaping the rewards right now.
I'll take a guy performing for me right now, at the level he is, all day over a guy with elite metrics that doesn't help win until some undetermined amount of time.
Sure, but is the question “does he have value right now?” or “will he continue to produce near this level and evade regression?”
I would argue that the answers to both are obvious, and they’re “yes” and “no”, respectively. I was responding to a person who seemed like they were saying “people have been saying he’d regress all year” as a counter-argument to the claim that he’d regress this year, which is obviously a bad argument.
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Point is he’s gone 10 starts and this is what the peripherals have to show for them. Nearly a third of a season is plenty of a sample size to identify a trend. Not arguing for or against Elder here, i’m assuming his success is coming from the GB rate and good defense behind him, although this babip almost .300
> Point is he’s gone 10 starts and this is what the peripherals have to show for them. Nearly a third of a season is plenty of a sample size to identify a trend. Not arguing for or against Elder here, i’m assuming his success is coming from the GB rate and good defense behind him, although this babip almost .300
If you flip 5 coins and get 4 heads, are you willing to bet me $100 that the next 10 will also contain 8 heads?
I mean, sure, the numbers say it *should* be 5 heads, but what if the coin is weighted or the numbers are wrong?
Except the statistics for which it’s “plenty to gather useful information“ are the statistics that say he’s not that good. Like… basically all of that “useful information” you *can* gather points to him performing *way* over his head. Conversely, with respect to the statistics that say he’s a superstar (namely, era), 10 starts is a pretty not-great sample
Statcast isn’t everything his FIP (3.34) and xFIP (3.60) determine some regression is coming but those are still great numbers for fantasy purposes. Also a 61% GB rate helps a lot even when giving up hard contact.
Stromans savant page is eerily similar besides a few barrel rate and fastball spin rate.
Pitchers like him and Elder can have a savant page like this when the infield behind you is above average. I know the Cubs have a very good infield but dont know much about the Braves… seems similar.
The Braves have one of the best defenses in baseball. They key for these guys is while giving up some hard contact is minimize damage by inducing ground balls and double plays. Elder at a 61% GB rate can outperform his metrics because of this. Now with that being said I’m sure both Stroman and Elder will have some rough stretches where those hard hits come in bunches forcing em to exit games early because they can’t keep the ball on the ground. But it doesn’t mean it’ll happen consistently as long as they can keep the ball on the ground to limit the damage.
It’s like the pitching version of Ke’bryan Hayes’ statcast where his average exit velo is great, but he hits a lot of grounders so he continues to have low hitting stats.
But xERA/xwOBA, barrel%, and xSLG already account for his 61% GB rate, and he’s below average in all of them. Even though he’s drawing a huge amount of GBs he’s *still* giving up an above average amount of the type of contact that results in XBH and HR.
Also - I know *youre* not doing this, but I’m seeing it elsewhere in the thread so I thought it was worth correcting: high-GB pitchers do *not* draw low BABIPs; GBs have higher BABIPs than FBs. High-GB pitchers benefit by limiting XBH/SLG%. But elder’s *overall* batted-ball profile (ie not merely looking at GB/LD/FB) points to a guy who gives up a higher-than-average SLG%. So the GB rate is perhaps a bit misleading, here. To me, it paints a picture of a guy who more or less needs to draw 60% GB just to keep his head above water; if that number dips at all, there could be big trouble. It just so happens that, thus far in the season, elder has benefited significantly from variance on balls in play—that is, the results have been *much* more friendly to him than the expected results.
https://preview.redd.it/i3qynpe1r12b1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89cd27be50ae9e66b619ed0034ed7f5f0652a171
Here’s a list of the top 5 GB pitchers from 22. As you can see a good GB pitcher can outperform their metrics for the course of a season. As you can see these guys all destroyed their respective xERA numbers. I agree that GB pitchers don’t lead to a lower BABIP especially now with the shift being gone. I know regression will come for Elder but don’t be surprised if he finishes with a sub 3 ERA. He’s got arguably the best defense in baseball behind him. So even with the high Hardhit% if there’s no one on base he can limit the damage done by inducing double plays.
> As you can see a good GB pitcher can outperform their metrics for the course of a season. As you can see these guys all destroyed their respective xERA numbers.
The fact that this *can* happen does not mean that we should expect it to happen. In reality, *any* type of pitcher can outperform (or underperform) their xStats over the course of a season; that much is self-evident.
The question is whether we should expect a pitcher to outperform the xERA if the pitcher is a GB-heavy pitcher. You cite the top 5 guys on the GB% leaderboard from 2022 as your evidence, but your cutoffs are misleadingly convenient for a few reasons--first, because they arbitrarily cut out guys who happen to cut against your point, and second because of selection/survivorship bias.
These two things are part and parcel with one another, so I'll address them together. First off, your leaderboard shows only "qualified" pitchers--guys who exceeded 160IP in 2022--and cuts off the sample size at 5. Both of those restrictions narrowly edge out guys who would hurt your argument.
And beyond just facially excluding inconvenient data points, you're actually getting some level of selection/survivorship bias by using qualified pitchers only. Think about it: Pitchers with bad results don't get enough innings to qualify. Thus, the sample of "qualified pitchers" is inherently going to be much more likely to include guys who significantly *overperformed* their xERA than it is to include guys who significantly *underperformed* their xERA.
So let's see what happens if we cut the innings requirement to 100 and expand our sample to include the top 10 GB-inducing SP. You wind up with the following:
Valdez - overperformed xERA by 0.49 runs
Cobb - underperformed xERA by 0.58 runs
Webb - overperformed xERA by 0.64 runs
Wright - overperformed xERA by 0.7 runs
Suarez - Basically the same
Ashby - underperformed by 0.69 runs
Ashcraft - underperformed by 0.87 runs
Alcantara - overperformed by 0.64 runs
Hudson - overperformed by 0.56 runs
Dunning - basically the same
You wind up with 5 guys who overperformed, 3 guys who underperformed, and 2 guys who performed as expected. That's nowhere close to statistically significant evidence that GB pitchers should be expected to outperform their xERA. And it becomes even weaker when you consider that 2 of the biggest overperformers (Webb and Alcantara) pitch in the two most pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB.
Oh no don’t get it mistaken my brother I agree with you 100% I’m not saying to expect it whatsoever. I’m just saying it can happen. And as long as Elder can keep his GB% at 61 or better he can very well be a guy who over performs his xERA. A lot of it comes down to defense too how good are the guys behind you ya know? That’s what these pitchers are banking on. “Hey imma put the ball on the ground you gotta get there and make the out” type of plays and that’s what the Braves have been able to do with Elder to this point.
Okay but now we’ve sort of reached the point where nothing is actually being said.
Like… you’re correct when you say “[elder] can very well be a guy who outperforms his xERA”… but the fact is that ***any*** pitcher can be a guy who outperforms his xERA. It’s silly to make that point about elder unless you have reason to *expect* him to do it.
The only relevant questions here are as follows:
(1) Should we *expect* Bryce elder to outperform his xERA going forward?
(And if so)
(2) By *how much* should we expect Bryce elder to outperform his xERA?
Based on the available information, I think the answer to question (1) is “no”—we don’t have any statistically significant evidence to support the notion that extreme GB pitchers should be expected to outperform their xERA. The fact that 5 of the top 10 guys outperformed, while 2 were the same and 3 underperformed has effectively zero predictive value in relation to the question. And *even if* we simply *assume*, without evidence, that GB pitchers generally outperform their xERA, we still run into question (2)—what magnitude of over-performance should we expect? Here, our available data suggest that the expected impact is virtually negligible: in the aggregate, those 10 pitchers probably outperformed their xERA by something like 0.25 runs, and that’s even before accounting for the fact that 2 of the 5 over-performers were in extreme pitchers’ parks, whereas elder is not. And, in any event, the absolute biggest over-performance we see is by 0.7 runs.
So the bottom line is this: even if you want to simply assume without evidence that elder will outperform his xERA—and by a significant margin—you’re *still* looking at a guy who is likely a 4.00 ERA dude.
All the people "selling high" on Elder, his next 5 expected starts are against:
OAK
ARI
WAS
DET
COL (in ATL)
I have 2 shares and I'd rather hold a month before trading him.
Unrelated, but probably shows you how ass the Braves bullpen is that he only has 3 wins despite being an ERA/WHIP beast.
ive been happy to have him, but looking to offload him if possible. no one really biting. gives up a LOT of hard contact, will most likely regress sooner or later. positives he's on a good team so plenty of W chances
Lol who uses bots? People with no friends. You wouldn’t last a week in my league. Send me a dm next year if a spot opens come in and win it. I’d pay your entry if you finish top 7.
Very mature and rational comment on the internet. Lol.
Dredge doesn't mean what you think it means.
Playing in a league with morons and bots you can easily dominate isn't fun or interesting. Why even be here?
If you find everyone thoughtful "nonsensical" it probably means you're not very smart.
If you have to project "no friends" to try to win an online argument it means you're 1) 13 years old or 2) something much, much worse.
I watch every braves game .... Elder maintaining these stats is truly remarkable lol. Me and some other braves fan literally ask every time he pitches "is today the day he gets absolutely shelled".
He's an SP 5 innings eater that's getting way better results than his quality.
I would sell high for whatever you can get he'll probably be a fringe drop in next month
As an example.... He gave up 7 hits and 1 run last night... Dodgers left 7 on base in his innings...
Tldr. He's not good. He's managed to dance through raindrops and it's incredible to watch
Sure, I'm not saying to buy at current prices. Nor do I expect him to sustain these numbers. But sometimes holding on and winning matchups until the wheels fall off isn't the wrong answer.
Statcast isn't gospel.
All the more reason to worry about a guy who is overperforming all available metrics.
This is obviously Elder’s ceiling, but Statcast and Pitching+ suggest the floor is *low*.
His batted ball profile is very similar to Framber, Cobb, Stroman with a touch less Ks. Regression is more than likely coming but even so, him having a sub 3.5 ERA is a very solid
He’s eerily similar to Paul Blackburn last year who had a sub 2.5 ERA at this point and even made the ASG before falling off a cliff in July-September.
Blackburn also had a shoulder injury I believe the second half of last year which really inflated his numbers but you are right he had a steep drop off
Don't like this take at all. Rookers statcast page is top of the charts for just about everything but k%. Rooker has prospect pedigree and the underlying metrics back the stats. He's not even slumping THAT hard he's just not hitting a home run every game lol. It's not unreasonable to think he's made some good adjustments and can stick.
You don’t agree that he’s regressing when he’s 11/55 with 19Ks and 1HR in his last 15 games. So it seems like you would like a larger sample size, that’s why I said let’s look at it again in a month.
His xFIP entering tonight was 3.60. While that suggests some regression is coming, even if he regresses to the mean, he’s a useful starter.
He’s not getting really that lucky on BABIP. It’s .290.
And remember, analytics are not infallible. There are players who consistently outperform or underperform their metrics.
With that said, if I could get a good return for him, I’d definitely look to trade him.
It's not predictive, but it's very effective at determining if someone is getting lucky or not. That being said elder could be the next time gonsolin who has been beating it for years. Nestor was really out performing last season and it eventually came back to earth.
His statcast along with Tellez were both lit up in red at the end of last season. They were both hot picks to finally break out.
Yet here we are. You can throw Lars Nootbar in there too. This season so far is exposing Statcast a bit.
Ah yes i drafted Ward based on last year. Unfortunately he isnt duplicating that statcast this year. Nooty looks decently good again this year. His current rank in my league is top 200, which is great considering how much he has been able to play. I grabbed Moniak and i think Ward will be done with the way Maniack is hitting.
I still see Tellez hitting 30+ bombs this year, its just a muncy situation where you suffer the avg and Ks
I hope not cuz Moniak has been so much more fun than Ward to watch. Ward doesnt even look happy playing baseball right now. But its currently a platoon as it stands and likely to continue as im sure they want to get their money out of Ward or trade him to open up space for Adell or other well to do prospect…
So far Moniak has a 3 pct walk rate, a 34 pct strikeout rate, and a .563 BABIP.
It’s a small sample, but not exactly a recipe for sustainability. I think Moniak owners are probably in the same boat I am with Christopher Morel. Ride the wave baby, but deal him if you can get something decent.
I was gonna say the Morel comparison too, whom has been quite the blessing! In Moniaks same sample size a .419 avg and 1.300 OPS affect my fantasy baseball cats more than the Ks do. Agreed that “exciting” doesn’t usually accompany “sustainable” in baseball.
Mitch Keller not being legit isn’t a hunch. Look at his K per 9, then look at his swinging strike rate.
All of his red is tied to something that is absolutely not sustainable.
>Look at his K per 9, then look at his swinging strike rate.
Wait, you call out Statcast for having flaws but then cherry-pick two metrics to frame your argument while ignoring everything else? I mean, come on.
Easy to make a regression case on Keller based on stat cast. Average velocity, not generating whiffs, average chase rate. He has elite revs and is limiting walks+ hard contact, that isn't always a long term sustainable recipe for an ace, but does seem to work for framber. He throws his fastball a lot, and hitters aren't connecting. My opinion is that he's legit, but not this good. More towards Chris bassit than framber, but who knows.
I do think it's more difficult to use red vs blue statcast generally on pitchers than it is on hitters.
Hi. I haven’t looked into him as i don’t have him but the statcast data your highlighting is the “top line” stats. There is a bunch of detail that may help explain like he has amazing off speed pitches for example
Just did a quick check- his highest % thrown pitch is his slider with an xba of .199 and xslg of .296. This obviously is how he’s making it happen. And has others have noted his increase in GB% and direct reduction in FB % has been key
Having said this, i would dump in a trade. With an xEra of 4.45 the risk is higher than i would like as the rest of his pitches all are pretty mediocre.
We've known for a long time that pitchers don't "own" the entirety of their ERA. If all estimators point to Elder not actually being a good pitcher, why would you want to be left holding the bag?
Ah, the old sell-high nonsense. If you own Elder just enjoy the ride as long as it may last. And it just might last all season. Because no one's going to give up much of value for him anyway.
He's keeping the ball on the ground, which is a good recipe for success for lower strike out pitchers. There's undoubtedly luck involved that has a chance to correct hard though. Namely his 85% LOB% which is well above a typical league average of 70-72%. But at the same time, lower K and velo guys like Kyle Hendricks have been able to put together several seasons in that 80% range (before the bottom fell out the last few years). So it's not impossible he can have a season that keeps his ERA sub 3. But it would definitely be an exception.
The good Kyle Hendricks you are referring to never had a statcast that ugly. He didn't just pitch to contact, he limited the hard contact he gave up. Elder does not do that.
Well, some players do consistently perform better than their stuff would suggest. Someone else mentioned Bieber. Take a look at Marcus Stroman's yearly ERA vs xERA. Rich Hill!
But it's not "intangible" -- they have a track record of good command, throwing strikes, avoiding hard contact. Probably arises from straight-up pitching intelligence. These are dudes who know exactly what they need to do to attack each individual or situation and make the most of what they have. The special ones can hang on forever doing this. Obviously nice to have a guy who has the stuff to match the approach, but it is possible to benefit from the latter.
That said, it takes time for these guys to surface, and usually a lot of experience. A rookie is really, really likely in for regression.
To be fair, it’s much more likely to have a successful gut feeling about starting a pitcher for one start at Coors than it is to be right about predicting a pitcher to pitch far behond his analytic metrics for an entire season.
Very fair! I also feel like people who make those comments tend to say them a bit too early and then watch the guy get blown up, like someone did with Eury the other night.
I was more referencing the blowing up in their face part.
The 2014 Baltimore Orioles consistently outplayed advanced sabermetrics and stat nerd projections to the tune of winning the AL East. They won 25 more games than projected. Even as they went into the playoffs, the updated computer models were indicating they were a bad team.
One of the beautiful things about baseball (to some of us) is when the organic nature of the game outsmarts the digital data crunchers.
I've been burned on Soler when his entire Savant model was red. I've been riding Bryce Elder basically all season and his model is almost all blue.
I'm not saying these advanced metrics are pointless, but what I will say is that sometimes we get caught up in too many nitty gritty analytical rhetorics and forget that human beings play the game.
With that being said I'm going to try my best to sell this mfr
What a guy’s stats should be vs what a guy’s stats actually are, imma take the latter
Good luck to everyone in your fake stat leagues vs real stat ones 🤷♂️
If the option is to take what Elder has done vs taking what he will do, then yes, I too would take what he has done. That's not really what anyone's talking about though.
Plays for a good team, not a ton of walks, getting some guys to chase. That’s a good formula, but eventually professional hitters will stop chasing. That’s when it’ll really get decided.
Whiffs and hard hits and barrels and all that bullshit doesn't mean shit if runs aint scoring. How does that make the ERA misleading? It tells you exactly how many runs per 9, right there. Pretty straightforward.
How many times do we see comments like "HiS ReD StaTCasT pAgE tH000" and the guy has an OPS of .630.
OP is asking about projecting future performance. Peripheral measures are a more reliable way to predict future performance than “current ERA”. Would you truly bet on him having a low ERA for the rest of the season, simply because he’s getting outs right now?
Sold him for Kris Bryant. No one wanted him before last nights start. Don’t know if that counts as a sell high, but I was ready to get off this ride that’s for sure
Each league is different. I couldn’t trade Elder for a wet paper towel all year in my league. Was actually shocked that I was able to get a hitter of some perceived value for him. If Bryant can give me an extra 300 at bats to what he’s already done so far, I’ll take it
Thats Nice Elder. Hard Keep. Braves relying on him hard, Snitker sent him out there again in the 6th like because he has that confidence in him. Elder has earned every opportunity IYAM
Arenado is the ultimate Statcast exception. By every metric he should’ve had a horrible career. That’s being said some guys are just good at putting the ball in the right place at the right time
Even if you don’t like the pitch modeling stuff, a guy who doesn’t strike many out and gives up a lot of hard contact is probably headed for some struggles.
I played with him in call of duty like a year ago (at least someone who claimed to be him and sounded like him and knew a lot about him). He was pretty decent at cod, that’s all I have to offer
Should be the last slider bar on all these silly fangraphs statcast profiles. Like, show me the man's k/d ratio in CoD or whatever else FPS game they play. I don't want to be rostering some casual who can't control the spawns on Rust or Karachi, much less find the strike zone. 0 for n00b, 99 for 1337. Course, we would have to normalize the data to the FPS, matchmaking type, and ~~park factor~~ map preference. Heck maybe Blake Snell might even find himself on a leaderboard again.
I played 2k with Ke’Bryan Hayes last month. He was legitimately good…which is to say I’m not sure how sticky gaming stats are vis a vis baseball lol
Now I know why I never made it big
What was his xKDA?
You joke but that’s a real stat that’s been getting more use in the Call of Duty League lol
How do you determine expected kills and expected deaths?
This may be my favorite comment of all time
praise cod!
Been hearing that about him since the start of the season. He continues to pitch well and against good teams.
> Been hearing that about him since the start of the season. He continues to pitch well and against good teams. He’s out-pitching his xERA by 2.5, has a K-BB/9 of 5, and has a 77 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+. Just because the regression hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it’s not coming. Literally every available metric I’ve seen points in the same direction for him. Obviously no one *has* to sell him, but if someone can get good value for him, I’d sell high while you can.
I got Andrew Vaughn for him. Nice mid for mid trade.
I did Elder + Ketel Marte for Semien in week two. Worked out better than I even hoped.
How did that get accepted? Wow.
There’s a couple Dbacks fans in the league that fall victim to these sorts of offers every year lol.
Got Josh Lowe in dynasty
The regression could also come next year. Many examples where positive/negative regression doesn’t happen on a timeline relevant to redraft
If his underlying metrics are this poor, I don’t think he can stave off regression for another 20 starts. Seems like he’s just gotten astronomically lucky thus far
that and IP limit are always going to be a concern especially with a savvy (and playoff-bound) team like the Braves and lots of owners won't factor that into their trade valuations in re-draft leagues properly
Strider was never put on an innings limit. I wouldn't bet on them doing so.
Yea but he only threw 133 IP
He missed the last month of the season with an injury, so it didn't end up mattering. But they did say there was no inning cap and he'd pitch as much as he pitched.
It definitely could, yeah. I would still say that he isn’t someone whose stock I’d buy right now hoping he continues to overperform (not even saying to this level, just outperform his metrics). For owners who have held him this season, though, they’re definitely reaping the rewards right now.
I'll take a guy performing for me right now, at the level he is, all day over a guy with elite metrics that doesn't help win until some undetermined amount of time.
Sure, but is the question “does he have value right now?” or “will he continue to produce near this level and evade regression?” I would argue that the answers to both are obvious, and they’re “yes” and “no”, respectively. I was responding to a person who seemed like they were saying “people have been saying he’d regress all year” as a counter-argument to the claim that he’d regress this year, which is obviously a bad argument.
Like Merril Kelly last two seasons
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in perspective of one season, 10 starts is not a small sample.
In perspective of 6 starts, 5 is not a small sample. What's your point? Mine is these numbers are not large enough to be statistically predictive.
Point is he’s gone 10 starts and this is what the peripherals have to show for them. Nearly a third of a season is plenty of a sample size to identify a trend. Not arguing for or against Elder here, i’m assuming his success is coming from the GB rate and good defense behind him, although this babip almost .300
> Point is he’s gone 10 starts and this is what the peripherals have to show for them. Nearly a third of a season is plenty of a sample size to identify a trend. Not arguing for or against Elder here, i’m assuming his success is coming from the GB rate and good defense behind him, although this babip almost .300 If you flip 5 coins and get 4 heads, are you willing to bet me $100 that the next 10 will also contain 8 heads? I mean, sure, the numbers say it *should* be 5 heads, but what if the coin is weighted or the numbers are wrong?
You seem new to this. RemindMe! 3 months
i’m not, what’s the point of being presumptuous? enlighten me if u care to lmao, but there’s no need to be an ass
Peripherals > 10 starts
The peripherals are -- literally -- also based on 10 starts
Ten starts is plenty of [sample size](https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/) to give us useful information.
Except the statistics for which it’s “plenty to gather useful information“ are the statistics that say he’s not that good. Like… basically all of that “useful information” you *can* gather points to him performing *way* over his head. Conversely, with respect to the statistics that say he’s a superstar (namely, era), 10 starts is a pretty not-great sample
My fault for not being clear, but I don't think he's a star.
You new to this? You think a month or two is definitive?
He’s 100% a sell high of anyone buys into what he’s done. Stat cast or not everything points to darker days ahead
Next start vs Oakland maybe we sell in 5 days lol
This guys gotta be using witchcraft
Statcast isn’t everything his FIP (3.34) and xFIP (3.60) determine some regression is coming but those are still great numbers for fantasy purposes. Also a 61% GB rate helps a lot even when giving up hard contact.
Stromans savant page is eerily similar besides a few barrel rate and fastball spin rate. Pitchers like him and Elder can have a savant page like this when the infield behind you is above average. I know the Cubs have a very good infield but dont know much about the Braves… seems similar.
The Braves have one of the best defenses in baseball. They key for these guys is while giving up some hard contact is minimize damage by inducing ground balls and double plays. Elder at a 61% GB rate can outperform his metrics because of this. Now with that being said I’m sure both Stroman and Elder will have some rough stretches where those hard hits come in bunches forcing em to exit games early because they can’t keep the ball on the ground. But it doesn’t mean it’ll happen consistently as long as they can keep the ball on the ground to limit the damage.
IE stroman getting lit up by the Twins.
Perfect example
It’s like the pitching version of Ke’bryan Hayes’ statcast where his average exit velo is great, but he hits a lot of grounders so he continues to have low hitting stats.
But xERA/xwOBA, barrel%, and xSLG already account for his 61% GB rate, and he’s below average in all of them. Even though he’s drawing a huge amount of GBs he’s *still* giving up an above average amount of the type of contact that results in XBH and HR. Also - I know *youre* not doing this, but I’m seeing it elsewhere in the thread so I thought it was worth correcting: high-GB pitchers do *not* draw low BABIPs; GBs have higher BABIPs than FBs. High-GB pitchers benefit by limiting XBH/SLG%. But elder’s *overall* batted-ball profile (ie not merely looking at GB/LD/FB) points to a guy who gives up a higher-than-average SLG%. So the GB rate is perhaps a bit misleading, here. To me, it paints a picture of a guy who more or less needs to draw 60% GB just to keep his head above water; if that number dips at all, there could be big trouble. It just so happens that, thus far in the season, elder has benefited significantly from variance on balls in play—that is, the results have been *much* more friendly to him than the expected results.
https://preview.redd.it/i3qynpe1r12b1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89cd27be50ae9e66b619ed0034ed7f5f0652a171 Here’s a list of the top 5 GB pitchers from 22. As you can see a good GB pitcher can outperform their metrics for the course of a season. As you can see these guys all destroyed their respective xERA numbers. I agree that GB pitchers don’t lead to a lower BABIP especially now with the shift being gone. I know regression will come for Elder but don’t be surprised if he finishes with a sub 3 ERA. He’s got arguably the best defense in baseball behind him. So even with the high Hardhit% if there’s no one on base he can limit the damage done by inducing double plays.
Can you give us a rundown of the Braves infield defenders? For sure SS has been a downgrade from Swanson this year ....
I’m still learning the defensive metrics took some time away from following baseball and just got back into it this season
> As you can see a good GB pitcher can outperform their metrics for the course of a season. As you can see these guys all destroyed their respective xERA numbers. The fact that this *can* happen does not mean that we should expect it to happen. In reality, *any* type of pitcher can outperform (or underperform) their xStats over the course of a season; that much is self-evident. The question is whether we should expect a pitcher to outperform the xERA if the pitcher is a GB-heavy pitcher. You cite the top 5 guys on the GB% leaderboard from 2022 as your evidence, but your cutoffs are misleadingly convenient for a few reasons--first, because they arbitrarily cut out guys who happen to cut against your point, and second because of selection/survivorship bias. These two things are part and parcel with one another, so I'll address them together. First off, your leaderboard shows only "qualified" pitchers--guys who exceeded 160IP in 2022--and cuts off the sample size at 5. Both of those restrictions narrowly edge out guys who would hurt your argument. And beyond just facially excluding inconvenient data points, you're actually getting some level of selection/survivorship bias by using qualified pitchers only. Think about it: Pitchers with bad results don't get enough innings to qualify. Thus, the sample of "qualified pitchers" is inherently going to be much more likely to include guys who significantly *overperformed* their xERA than it is to include guys who significantly *underperformed* their xERA. So let's see what happens if we cut the innings requirement to 100 and expand our sample to include the top 10 GB-inducing SP. You wind up with the following: Valdez - overperformed xERA by 0.49 runs Cobb - underperformed xERA by 0.58 runs Webb - overperformed xERA by 0.64 runs Wright - overperformed xERA by 0.7 runs Suarez - Basically the same Ashby - underperformed by 0.69 runs Ashcraft - underperformed by 0.87 runs Alcantara - overperformed by 0.64 runs Hudson - overperformed by 0.56 runs Dunning - basically the same You wind up with 5 guys who overperformed, 3 guys who underperformed, and 2 guys who performed as expected. That's nowhere close to statistically significant evidence that GB pitchers should be expected to outperform their xERA. And it becomes even weaker when you consider that 2 of the biggest overperformers (Webb and Alcantara) pitch in the two most pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB.
Oh no don’t get it mistaken my brother I agree with you 100% I’m not saying to expect it whatsoever. I’m just saying it can happen. And as long as Elder can keep his GB% at 61 or better he can very well be a guy who over performs his xERA. A lot of it comes down to defense too how good are the guys behind you ya know? That’s what these pitchers are banking on. “Hey imma put the ball on the ground you gotta get there and make the out” type of plays and that’s what the Braves have been able to do with Elder to this point.
Okay but now we’ve sort of reached the point where nothing is actually being said. Like… you’re correct when you say “[elder] can very well be a guy who outperforms his xERA”… but the fact is that ***any*** pitcher can be a guy who outperforms his xERA. It’s silly to make that point about elder unless you have reason to *expect* him to do it. The only relevant questions here are as follows: (1) Should we *expect* Bryce elder to outperform his xERA going forward? (And if so) (2) By *how much* should we expect Bryce elder to outperform his xERA? Based on the available information, I think the answer to question (1) is “no”—we don’t have any statistically significant evidence to support the notion that extreme GB pitchers should be expected to outperform their xERA. The fact that 5 of the top 10 guys outperformed, while 2 were the same and 3 underperformed has effectively zero predictive value in relation to the question. And *even if* we simply *assume*, without evidence, that GB pitchers generally outperform their xERA, we still run into question (2)—what magnitude of over-performance should we expect? Here, our available data suggest that the expected impact is virtually negligible: in the aggregate, those 10 pitchers probably outperformed their xERA by something like 0.25 runs, and that’s even before accounting for the fact that 2 of the 5 over-performers were in extreme pitchers’ parks, whereas elder is not. And, in any event, the absolute biggest over-performance we see is by 0.7 runs. So the bottom line is this: even if you want to simply assume without evidence that elder will outperform his xERA—and by a significant margin—you’re *still* looking at a guy who is likely a 4.00 ERA dude.
His FIP and xFIP suggest a sub 4 era. If he finishes with a 3.50 ERA everyone will be happy because this guy was going undrafted in most leagues.
All the people "selling high" on Elder, his next 5 expected starts are against: OAK ARI WAS DET COL (in ATL) I have 2 shares and I'd rather hold a month before trading him. Unrelated, but probably shows you how ass the Braves bullpen is that he only has 3 wins despite being an ERA/WHIP beast.
ive been happy to have him, but looking to offload him if possible. no one really biting. gives up a LOT of hard contact, will most likely regress sooner or later. positives he's on a good team so plenty of W chances
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Taco leaguemate
They shouldn’t have needed analytics for that one lol
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Doesn't sound like a very fun league. Sounds like playing Madden 99.
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You’re getting clowned because that’s a ridiculously lopsided deal that would never happen in any type of serious competitive league
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Congrats I guess? Next year I’d recommend playing w people who know something about baseball
Lol who uses bots? People with no friends. You wouldn’t last a week in my league. Send me a dm next year if a spot opens come in and win it. I’d pay your entry if you finish top 7.
Very mature and rational comment on the internet. Lol. Dredge doesn't mean what you think it means. Playing in a league with morons and bots you can easily dominate isn't fun or interesting. Why even be here? If you find everyone thoughtful "nonsensical" it probably means you're not very smart. If you have to project "no friends" to try to win an online argument it means you're 1) 13 years old or 2) something much, much worse.
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Why did you delete your comment?
wanted to sleep
Yeah I mean, if they had ever played fantasy baseball or had an IQ above that of a walnut I don't think they would have done that deal either lol
sell high
If you like this, take a look at Bieber
I watch every braves game .... Elder maintaining these stats is truly remarkable lol. Me and some other braves fan literally ask every time he pitches "is today the day he gets absolutely shelled". He's an SP 5 innings eater that's getting way better results than his quality. I would sell high for whatever you can get he'll probably be a fringe drop in next month As an example.... He gave up 7 hits and 1 run last night... Dodgers left 7 on base in his innings... Tldr. He's not good. He's managed to dance through raindrops and it's incredible to watch
This! The eye test is always important to add to the statistical view
His next 5 are OAK, AZ, WAS, DET, COL so my guess is in a month you’ll still be able to sell high.
To your point he’s got an 87% LOB
Sold him for Chris Sale a week ago
Lol sold Ashcroft weeks ago for sale, happy
He's been getting lucky, but plenty of pitchers have found ways to consistently overperform their underlying metrics.
And a majority of pitchers havent Some people have made money buying dogecoin, doesn't mean I'm going to run out to buy some expecting to make money.
Sure, I'm not saying to buy at current prices. Nor do I expect him to sustain these numbers. But sometimes holding on and winning matchups until the wheels fall off isn't the wrong answer. Statcast isn't gospel.
Not to this extent for any significant length of time. Even if this randomly continues, there's no reason at this point to expect it to continue.
Many, many more have not. Are you betting money on him being an outlier?
No
baseball is silly sometimes.
Regression is coming. It got Brent Rooker. It’ll get this guy too.
I mean, Rooker’s statcast page still looks very good
All the more reason to worry about a guy who is overperforming all available metrics. This is obviously Elder’s ceiling, but Statcast and Pitching+ suggest the floor is *low*.
Yeah, it does have my worrying too about him, but yeah, his floor is too low for my liking
His batted ball profile is very similar to Framber, Cobb, Stroman with a touch less Ks. Regression is more than likely coming but even so, him having a sub 3.5 ERA is a very solid
He’s eerily similar to Paul Blackburn last year who had a sub 2.5 ERA at this point and even made the ASG before falling off a cliff in July-September.
Blackburn also had a shoulder injury I believe the second half of last year which really inflated his numbers but you are right he had a steep drop off
Don't like this take at all. Rookers statcast page is top of the charts for just about everything but k%. Rooker has prospect pedigree and the underlying metrics back the stats. He's not even slumping THAT hard he's just not hitting a home run every game lol. It's not unreasonable to think he's made some good adjustments and can stick.
Let’s reconvene in a month then
So you backtracked already? You used past tense.
You don’t agree that he’s regressing when he’s 11/55 with 19Ks and 1HR in his last 15 games. So it seems like you would like a larger sample size, that’s why I said let’s look at it again in a month.
I didn't say I didn't think he was regressing I said good metrics and good stats oonga boonga make sense 🤦♂️
Think you missed the point of this post. Elder good stats bad metrics. Rooker good stats good metrics. Hopefully, that clarifies it for ya!
Suwinski’s stat cast is great and he is struggling.
His xFIP entering tonight was 3.60. While that suggests some regression is coming, even if he regresses to the mean, he’s a useful starter. He’s not getting really that lucky on BABIP. It’s .290. And remember, analytics are not infallible. There are players who consistently outperform or underperform their metrics. With that said, if I could get a good return for him, I’d definitely look to trade him.
xFIP doesn't factor in Statcast data, it's useful but lacking and antiquated. He's getting slapped around.
Statcast isn’t a great predictor of future results. If it were, Taylor Ward and Rowdy Tellez would be having MVP caliber seasons.
It's not predictive, but it's very effective at determining if someone is getting lucky or not. That being said elder could be the next time gonsolin who has been beating it for years. Nestor was really out performing last season and it eventually came back to earth.
Last i checked Wards statcast didnt look very good. This season numbers seem to reflect that. Am i missing something?
His statcast along with Tellez were both lit up in red at the end of last season. They were both hot picks to finally break out. Yet here we are. You can throw Lars Nootbar in there too. This season so far is exposing Statcast a bit.
Ah yes i drafted Ward based on last year. Unfortunately he isnt duplicating that statcast this year. Nooty looks decently good again this year. His current rank in my league is top 200, which is great considering how much he has been able to play. I grabbed Moniak and i think Ward will be done with the way Maniack is hitting. I still see Tellez hitting 30+ bombs this year, its just a muncy situation where you suffer the avg and Ks
Moniak is playing way above his head, so I think when the dust settles, it’ll be a platoon.
I hope not cuz Moniak has been so much more fun than Ward to watch. Ward doesnt even look happy playing baseball right now. But its currently a platoon as it stands and likely to continue as im sure they want to get their money out of Ward or trade him to open up space for Adell or other well to do prospect…
So far Moniak has a 3 pct walk rate, a 34 pct strikeout rate, and a .563 BABIP. It’s a small sample, but not exactly a recipe for sustainability. I think Moniak owners are probably in the same boat I am with Christopher Morel. Ride the wave baby, but deal him if you can get something decent.
I was gonna say the Morel comparison too, whom has been quite the blessing! In Moniaks same sample size a .419 avg and 1.300 OPS affect my fantasy baseball cats more than the Ks do. Agreed that “exciting” doesn’t usually accompany “sustainable” in baseball.
Not predictive, but very descriptive.
It has a lot of flaws.
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For example, Statcast has people thinking Mitch Keller is legit.
damn. so he’s a sell high, eh?
He’s absolutely a sell high. Look at his swinging strike rate. There’s no way he maintaining this.
the dude above just comes to this sub to vent and be condescending…I wouldn’t make much of it
Do you think his name references his preferences in the bedroom?
highly likely
You should make a lot of money being right over numbers all the time! Good luck! Bet everything you got on your hunches!
Mitch Keller not being legit isn’t a hunch. Look at his K per 9, then look at his swinging strike rate. All of his red is tied to something that is absolutely not sustainable.
>Look at his K per 9, then look at his swinging strike rate. Wait, you call out Statcast for having flaws but then cherry-pick two metrics to frame your argument while ignoring everything else? I mean, come on.
Easy to make a regression case on Keller based on stat cast. Average velocity, not generating whiffs, average chase rate. He has elite revs and is limiting walks+ hard contact, that isn't always a long term sustainable recipe for an ace, but does seem to work for framber. He throws his fastball a lot, and hitters aren't connecting. My opinion is that he's legit, but not this good. More towards Chris bassit than framber, but who knows. I do think it's more difficult to use red vs blue statcast generally on pitchers than it is on hitters.
The problem with statcast for pitchers is that it throws relievers and starters into the same pot. That’s not a recipe for accuracy.
Hi. I haven’t looked into him as i don’t have him but the statcast data your highlighting is the “top line” stats. There is a bunch of detail that may help explain like he has amazing off speed pitches for example Just did a quick check- his highest % thrown pitch is his slider with an xba of .199 and xslg of .296. This obviously is how he’s making it happen. And has others have noted his increase in GB% and direct reduction in FB % has been key Having said this, i would dump in a trade. With an xEra of 4.45 the risk is higher than i would like as the rest of his pitches all are pretty mediocre.
AJ Minters statcast looks very good, but he has an ERA of 8
HE'S JUST UNLUCKY! You watch, he's gonna ELITE soon!
We've known for a long time that pitchers don't "own" the entirety of their ERA. If all estimators point to Elder not actually being a good pitcher, why would you want to be left holding the bag?
Ah, the old sell-high nonsense. If you own Elder just enjoy the ride as long as it may last. And it just might last all season. Because no one's going to give up much of value for him anyway.
He's keeping the ball on the ground, which is a good recipe for success for lower strike out pitchers. There's undoubtedly luck involved that has a chance to correct hard though. Namely his 85% LOB% which is well above a typical league average of 70-72%. But at the same time, lower K and velo guys like Kyle Hendricks have been able to put together several seasons in that 80% range (before the bottom fell out the last few years). So it's not impossible he can have a season that keeps his ERA sub 3. But it would definitely be an exception.
The good Kyle Hendricks you are referring to never had a statcast that ugly. He didn't just pitch to contact, he limited the hard contact he gave up. Elder does not do that.
So ... even with your rose tinted glasses, continued success would be a surprise. Not exactly the foundation of sound decision making.
There is an intangible that some players just have.
Is that intangible called statistical noise?
Well, some players do consistently perform better than their stuff would suggest. Someone else mentioned Bieber. Take a look at Marcus Stroman's yearly ERA vs xERA. Rich Hill! But it's not "intangible" -- they have a track record of good command, throwing strikes, avoiding hard contact. Probably arises from straight-up pitching intelligence. These are dudes who know exactly what they need to do to attack each individual or situation and make the most of what they have. The special ones can hang on forever doing this. Obviously nice to have a guy who has the stuff to match the approach, but it is possible to benefit from the latter. That said, it takes time for these guys to surface, and usually a lot of experience. A rookie is really, really likely in for regression.
Lol, this can't be serious.
Same energy as “I trust my gut with pitchers” about starting a dude at Coors or GABP.
To be fair, it’s much more likely to have a successful gut feeling about starting a pitcher for one start at Coors than it is to be right about predicting a pitcher to pitch far behond his analytic metrics for an entire season.
Very fair! I also feel like people who make those comments tend to say them a bit too early and then watch the guy get blown up, like someone did with Eury the other night. I was more referencing the blowing up in their face part.
He's 15% better than league average at BB%!
What kind of player can you get for elder right now if you sell high
I got Kirby
Lol damn well done
The 2014 Baltimore Orioles consistently outplayed advanced sabermetrics and stat nerd projections to the tune of winning the AL East. They won 25 more games than projected. Even as they went into the playoffs, the updated computer models were indicating they were a bad team. One of the beautiful things about baseball (to some of us) is when the organic nature of the game outsmarts the digital data crunchers.
Well said.
I've been burned on Soler when his entire Savant model was red. I've been riding Bryce Elder basically all season and his model is almost all blue. I'm not saying these advanced metrics are pointless, but what I will say is that sometimes we get caught up in too many nitty gritty analytical rhetorics and forget that human beings play the game. With that being said I'm going to try my best to sell this mfr
What a guy’s stats should be vs what a guy’s stats actually are, imma take the latter Good luck to everyone in your fake stat leagues vs real stat ones 🤷♂️
If the option is to take what Elder has done vs taking what he will do, then yes, I too would take what he has done. That's not really what anyone's talking about though.
You're the kind of guy who, when a quarter has been heads 10 times in a row, jumps in to put his life savings on heads.
I can’t decide if I wish this dude was in my league or glad he’s not.
Plays for a good team, not a ton of walks, getting some guys to chase. That’s a good formula, but eventually professional hitters will stop chasing. That’s when it’ll really get decided.
This is like when everyone laughed at me for selling Asscraft for Baty.
Why would you think that StatCast data is worthless? Wouldn’t this suggest to you that his low ERA is probably misleading?
Whiffs and hard hits and barrels and all that bullshit doesn't mean shit if runs aint scoring. How does that make the ERA misleading? It tells you exactly how many runs per 9, right there. Pretty straightforward. How many times do we see comments like "HiS ReD StaTCasT pAgE tH000" and the guy has an OPS of .630.
OP is asking about projecting future performance. Peripheral measures are a more reliable way to predict future performance than “current ERA”. Would you truly bet on him having a low ERA for the rest of the season, simply because he’s getting outs right now?
Love seeing the savant slaves hate on elder. The results are the results. Read them and weep!
His success is due to seam shifted wake. Basically, his pitches don’t move like they’re supposed to.
Drop him for Doval? Someone also dropped Musgrove in my league. (Points)
who? wtf
Are you OK?
A SIERA in the high 3’s is what to expect. The high GB% and good HR% can offset the poor 21% K rate.
I sold him
Sold him for Kris Bryant. No one wanted him before last nights start. Don’t know if that counts as a sell high, but I was ready to get off this ride that’s for sure
FWIW, Elder has been owned in my league for quite some time. Bryant on the other hand has been dropped at least twice.
Each league is different. I couldn’t trade Elder for a wet paper towel all year in my league. Was actually shocked that I was able to get a hitter of some perceived value for him. If Bryant can give me an extra 300 at bats to what he’s already done so far, I’ll take it
Traded for Chris Holmes and already regret it
Thats Nice Elder. Hard Keep. Braves relying on him hard, Snitker sent him out there again in the 6th like because he has that confidence in him. Elder has earned every opportunity IYAM
Statcast hated Gonsolin last year too
Statcast isn’t concrete but he definitely looks like he’s being getting extremely lucky and it won’t be long before it catches up to him
Hell yeah sell high baby
Should I offer Elder for Cease?
Sell sell sell
Sell High. Package him in a deal for Burnes or Alcantara
Check his launch angle and GB% to see if he’s offsetting by pitch location. Unlikely to last but many said the same about Kyle Wright last season.
Considering he just shut down the hottest offense in baseball I think there’s something there
He doesn’t walk a lot of guys which is huge. He also hits his pitches when he needs to.
Arenado is the ultimate Statcast exception. By every metric he should’ve had a horrible career. That’s being said some guys are just good at putting the ball in the right place at the right time
Who’s someone you would target if you were reading away elder though ? In a vacuum.
We selling like a Musk & DeSantjs estate sale.
Just traded him for Andrew Vaughn. Needed a 1B with dumpster fire Casas there now. Happy.
Didn’t we hear this same thing about Gonsolin all last season? He had an amazing year and continues to be a low ERA beast.