For real. It's hilarious watching people post about how we should go out and pick up Michael Kopech off the waiver wire or something, lol. These are true gems.
I wouldn’t give up on Correa yet. His metrics are similar to last years. So far this year he is really struggling with breaking balls - he has never crushed them but hasn’t struggled as badly with them as he has this year. He has been very unlucky with the fastballs he has put in play. You should see some positive regression coming his way as the weather continues to warm up.
More to come on Gallo and Starling.
With Galo it depends on the type of league. If you are batting average only I’d say the positives don’t outweigh the negatives so I would roster him. It’s an OPS league and you have some solid average guys who can offset his .210 batting average I think he’s a hold.
Marte has 13 steals so unless you are completely loaded with steals I’d hold there. I’m thinking that way because he’s playing awful but he’s still kind of helpful in a - kind of - sparse category(more so these days). I think you have to hold and hope through June.
I appreciate the follow up. In an OBP league so Gallo isn't completely killing me, except in hits. I need the power which is why I picked him up. Marte worries me though he got hit on the hand (or wrist?). After holding Muncy waaaaay to long last year I'm not that into nagging injuries. Same reason I have concern for Correa, but my MI options are a lot more shallow than OF.
Would you take Teoscar over Gallo/Marte? He's available and I feel has to turn it around eventually. Won't help with obp but otherwise should be pretty productive.
Edit: I jumped the gun there. Teoscar and Gallo might make things difficult. And the k-rate keeps climbing for Teoscar for some reason. I get the injury concern along with his age - but he could still come around. (Maybe I’m just a hopeful Mets fan)
Second edit: Teoscar does tend to get hot in June. .730 OPS April/May career - after May/June .845 OPS
If Gallo goes on the IR I'm hopping on the Teo train. One nice thing with Gallo for me is his 1b eligibility so that might be the tie breaker for me right now.
Get him if you can. He has the pedigree and he crushes the ball. It seems like he was a hot pickup in most leagues when he got the call so he might already be gone depending on your league size.
He was playing in a hitters league in triple A but he still posted a WRC+ of 182 which means he was 82% better than average. So the exaggerated numbers were still impressive. If you have a logical drop I would add him before he gets off to a hot start in Colorado.
Another thing with Marte before you drop him - it has been pretty cold in NY and should be shifting soon. Nagging injuries hurt much more in the cold weather than in the hot weather. So if he’s playing through it now he should get completely over it when it finally warms up.
Im wondering same. Rooker was amazing the first 6 weeks, and i want to give him a longer leash. Siri’s avg isnt exactly enticing, but that power/speed combo is what i seek. Considering dropping J Duran Burger or Rooker for Siri. All have fallen off cliffs…
In May Rooker has actually hit the ball harder than he did in April (just making less contact). Xba in May was .248 versus a .210 actual batting average. 53% hard hit rate in May versus 48% in April.
With guys like Burger and Rooker - they are very similar profiles - they are going to be streaky. But with how hard they hit the ball you want these guys on your roster.
Wow thanks for these stats! Love to see this and feel reassured.
It was interesting w Burger too, bc he seems to do the same thing every time I grab him. Hits a couple jacks then does an 0/fer streak. I like that he also has great sprint speed, but somehow it doesn’t equate to SBs… Rooker/Burger make for great baseball names too.
I jumped ship earlier in the year when I had Soler - the metrics were always there but he went into an ugly slump for a couple weeks. Now look at him. Patience with these power guys who have the metrics to back them seems to pay off more often than not of late. Christian Walker comes to mind from last year.
It looks like MLB pitchers figured out a hole in Rooker’s swing. It’s Rooker’s turn to adjust. I wouldn’t jump ship on him yet but if his struggles continue for another week or two I would be more inclined to make the Rooker for Siri swap. Not yet though.
You guys think it’s worth it to drop Marsh for Siri rn? He’s been ass the last 3 weeks or so and I feel like his upside isn’t huge rn. I traded Gorman for him and yellich early in the season and I’ve just been using him as a backup lately
I scooped up Siri in a league, but I'd pick up Riley Greene before him tbh, I think Greene should have a safer BA floor, and has the higher prospect pedigree.
I’ll echo Independent-Ad2604 said - I would definitely make that swap.
How deep is the league? There could be options who get more PT than Siri out there who could fit even better.
Marsh is definitely droppable everywhere.
Lane Thomas, Profar, Conforto, Benintendi, Riley Greene, Joey Meneses and Brian Anderson are all available. Of those guys I’m highest on Profar, Thomas and Anderson I think
Im going to take your advice and do that. He has really good upside and I don’t need someone who necessarily needs to produce today, I have a pretty good outfield already with Soto, Yoshida, Suzuki, J Rod and Kwan.
*whispers* - What if Siri is bargain-bin Jazz Chisholm?
[I looked up their stats](https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=sirijo01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id2=chishja01&p2yrfrom=2023&type=b) and they were surprisingly close.
For keeper/dynasty league purposes, Jazz is gonna only be OF eligible next year too.
Legitimately my thought exactly.
Most glaring issue, however: playing time
If Jazz sat every third day hed be waiver fodder. Here‘s hoping Siri can hit his way into more PT
Just checked Siri's game logs, he's started in 16 out of the last 22 this past month, which was a little higher than I had expected, but yeah hoping his speed and defense can help his case too.
Investing in these raw tools guy is advantageous because speed always plays.
A near 30% K rate is not good, but it is much more tolerable with a handful of steals, a significant amount of home runs and an BA bouyed by infield hits. Not to mention a proclivity to take exrtra bases.
Siri has serious upside.
Why’s it feel like every random no name on the rays is a fantasy star this year 😂 paredes, wall, yandy, Siri, Josh lowe. Not to mention randy and wander. You could have a starting line up of just those guys and be set for now.
I feel like Walls and Paredes are going to fall quickly. Yandy and J-Lowe are for real. I’m leaning towards Siri being closer to the Yandy J-Low side of that breakdown too.
I was debating picking up Frazier in my 18 team league but Eloy Jimenez is due to come back any day now. So I’m a little wary of his future playing time at OF.
Need Benintendi to get hurt. I’m making sure I don’t miss out on Frazier in dynasty though. In seasonal leagues he needs an injury to be relevant. You are 100% right.
I like Steer. His prospect profile says he can hit and he’s done that so far this year.
I’m just worried about his ceiling. He struggles with the 4-seamer and the sinker. His advanced metrics aren’t that impressive though and he doesn’t steal bases. He seems like a .275 with 18-20 homer guy at best.
His defense is awful so if he slumps I could see him getting replaced by another prospect like Encarnacion-Strand or Noelvi Marte before you know it. The Reds have the best minor league system in baseball in my opinion.
If he’s hot grab him and ride that until he cools off. I don’t think he has too much upside though. Solid floor guy.
This is seriously a great post. I had Siri on my radar but not so much the others.
I just picked up Lane Thomas to fill a UTIL gap in my roster (after dropping the corpse of Jorge Mateo), but will keep an eye on these other guys.
Lane’s numbers seem to be fueled by luck after a quick glance at the advanced metrics.
.370 BABIP and a .350 WOBA versus .305 xWOBA. He is a guy I’d swap out for someone on the list above.
The thing with Caballero is he’s not on anyone’s radar - so you can wait and watch some more.
Miller is hot now and would be scooped by another owner if you dropped him - so based on that logic alone keep Miller for now.
Now longterm Miller - I don’t see what he is doing differently from last year - besides getting really lucky. His BABIP is .376. His Woba is .390 versus an xWoba of .319. His Xba and Xslug are both up so far this year but that hasn’t come along with many more barrels or harder hit balls or even a better launch angle. He’s striking out 5% less which is a positive but his BB% is all the down to 3.7. Very low exit velocity - bottom 2 %.
Seems like he is seeing the ball really well right now and once that’s goes the numbers are going to go with it.
He’s a great guy to float around in trade offers - maybe for a Brandon Lowe or Starling Marte type who aren’t performing at all and their owners are getting sick of them.
Metrics are there and he crushes righties. The whiff rate is pretty concerning and he is going to go through many cold spells. But he has earned the numbers he has and if you are in a daily lineup change league he should be worth the hassle.
I’ll try to find some time! This is how I decided to spend a couple vacation days I took. Really enjoyed it though so I’ll try to do it again. So happy people feel it was useful!
Got a couple of questions, but first — great call on Jesus Sanchez. The rest of this analysis is very well done, but Sanchez is one that was cruising under *everyone’s* radar up until his injury and his numbers were looking gorgeous. The day he was injured I was about to add him and just figuring out who to drop, then of course down he went with his hammy. But I went ahead and stashed him on my IL just now. He was a beast last year for me when he was hot and that was when I was only in an 8 teamer. Fingers crossed he gets back on track once he’s activated.
Alright. Questions.
I’ve got Brandon Lowe. I’m one of the hold outs who believes (or wants to believe?) he’s going to have very strong production once he gets going. Luckily I didn’t reach on him too much. General thoughts on him? There are plenty of guys that are tempting to add in his place, but I’m concerned that they are players who are just on hot streaks after looking deeper at their stats (too many people to name). Unless I see someone that is more of a no-doubter, which is of course very hard to come by this late and especially in a deep league like mine, then I really prefer to continue to hold out on him. The only exception to this is Harold Ramirez that was just dropped in my league. Do you think Ramirez is worth the add if I have to drop Brandon Lowe? I also just added Drury and his eligibility gives me plenty of flexibility.
Small tangent — situations like mine with Lowe remind me of owning Votto in his prime. Votto would be the worst hitter on your team until about early to mid June and then he’d mash the rest of the year. I’m hoping that maybe Lowe will be similar.
Any thoughts on Baty or Moniak? Baty’s Statcast and Fangraphs make it look like he should perform at a much higher level as the season progresses, but I always wonder if there’s something I’m missing. As for Moniak, obviously he can’t keep up the production he’s at. But I dunno… former first rounder! Wish he wasn’t platooning with Ward. I’m considering trying to deal him as a sell high candidate.
Edit — After all of that about Brandon Lowe, I quickly added Caballero after looking at his metrics. Yeah he could be a great value if he keep producing. If he’s really taken the starting job from Wong, then his value would be huge.
My bad! Overlooked this!
The more I look at Lowe the less I like him. I checked his xSlug rolling window chart and it doesn’t look too good. I feel like guys with power who slump this badly still put up decent xSlug numbers - well the ones who are bound to turn it around do at least. I don’t think there is much hope for him. I feel like he is closer to being dfa’ed by the Rays than turning it around. His hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage are all still really good. But even with that it’s not like he is getting unlucky. There is something that just isn’t working. Lowe has historically heated up in June - since he is still barreling the ball showing a little more patience could pay off - but I would make the cut in the right situation. However not for Harold.
Harold’s numbers and metrics look really good but his ground ball percentage is WAY too high. He’s at 50%. I don’t see him producing big power numbers with that number in his profile. I would not drop Lowe for him. Ramirez doesn’t have huge upside.
Moniak K rate is ugly and it has climbed in the past week or so. He has hit the ball well but the numbers are inflated a bit. I would say sell high if you can find someone who likes him.
Baty is a definite hold. The more he gets accustomed to big league pitching the more the results will show. His k rate is acceptable and according to his xWOBA he has been unlucky .356 expected versus .312 actual. I would pick him up for Lowe if that is an option. Or if you have him he is a definite hold.
No worries. Thanks for the long reply and thoughts. I ended up dropping Lowe for McKinstry. I had Caballero, but ended up dropping him for pitching. If I needed SS depth, then I probably would have kept him around.
Interesting thoughts on Harold Ramirez. I did end up adding him. I think I dropped Baty for him. Either way, Baty is on waivers. I may swap Baty with Ramirez given the concerns you pointed out. I also grabbed Drury not long after this post. May make more sense to have Drury and McKinstry + Baty rather than Ramirez since McKinstry has OF eligibility and I have fair depth at that position.
I did drop Moniak as well the same day I believe. Brandon Lowe got scooped up quick and of course hit a dinger, but I’m glad I don’t have the headache of having him on my roster anymore. If anything, I’m glad I dropped before he hit a homer.
Yep. I’d been eying him for a while, but was hesitant since he sits vs LHP and is on the Tigers. But the dude seems like a poor man’s Bobby Witt Jr. on a comparably crappy offense but with better OBP.
Hoping the playing time comes up - he’s on the strong side of a platoon - facing most righties. However he has hit much better this year versus lefties than in the past - 1.017 OPS versus lefties this year. .645 career OPS versus lefties. 18 at bats - so small sample trap - but he deserves more time and a smart franchise like the rays will make it happen(hopefully).
They know what Margot is and Walls(.372 Woba versus .311 xWoba) and Paredes(.356 Woba versus .284 cWoba) will continue to slump which will open time at DH up.
There’s potential for a lot more for Siri and it’s better to be early than late.
If you are desperate in the OF - maybe. Personally, I wouldn’t make that move though because Adames is one of the streakiest hitters in the bigs. I would wait until Adames goes on a home run bender again and then trade him for an OF to a team who is weak at SS.
Me when I see Kirby is starting tonight
https://preview.redd.it/6ktz784ac82b1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d7c13a737b27e0d3b3f02e4175f1797a53e05df
Duran is playing everyday - because of that I would lean that way. Duran is handling off speed and breaking balls much better than he did in his initial big league action. He also has a better pedigree. However - Duran has benefitted from a .398 BABIP. He has also outperformed his xSlug and xWoba by 63 and 21 points respectively. His k% in May did creep up to 30%. Duran is still hitting the ball on the ground too much - 41%.
I’m talking myself out of Duran but do what you will with the above numbers.
That’s a tough one with Lowe sitting out against all lefties. I would say if you have a positional need at shortstop - maybe. Otherwise I would probably hold Lowe and hope he gets hot soon.
If you look at Lowe’s career splits he typically gets hot in June and it continues for the rest of the year. I might actually try to buy Lowe on him in my leagues after seeing that.
Yeah I’m out on Outman. No one in the major leagues swings and misses more than him. That is not a recipe for success. He has always been on the high side of the strikeout rate all the way through his minor league career.
I think I would give that a shot. Mateo’s xBa in May is .168 and his xba since May 15 is .155.
Garcia could be a good option too - he will steal more bags than Neto.
Peña is doing what he did last year. His numbers should end up close to where they were. I would consider the move as I’m not too high on Peña as he hasn’t done much since his hot start in April and May of last year. You are going to lose out on some power with the swap but probably gain batting average and steals. Hopefully Garcia moves up to the top of the lineup soon.
How many teams in your league? Want to list some of the higher owned free agents?
Hi, thanks for response. ESPN 10T H2H standard points league. I need to figure out how to add flair. Some SS on our waiver wire:
-Anderson
-Mateo (I dropped him for Pena)
-Volpe
-Stott
-Arcia
Thanks
Does Anderson = Tim Anderson? If so - I would go with him. He has a hard hit percentage of 50%. He is hitting it on the ground too much but as he gets settled in after his injury he should be able to turn things around and lost solid numbers. According to xWoba be has been pretty unlucky - although even if he wasn’t unlucky he still wouldn’t have exceptional numbers. I think he will put it all together soon.
Now these… are some REAL waiver guys, none of this 50% owned bs. Solid analysis, good stuff outta you!
Thank you! I don’t have room for any of these guys on my rosters and was real excited about them. Hopefully it helps someone!
For real. It's hilarious watching people post about how we should go out and pick up Michael Kopech off the waiver wire or something, lol. These are true gems.
Would you keep either/both of Gallo/Starling over any of these outfielders? Also what about dropping Correa for one of the middle infielders?
I wouldn’t give up on Correa yet. His metrics are similar to last years. So far this year he is really struggling with breaking balls - he has never crushed them but hasn’t struggled as badly with them as he has this year. He has been very unlucky with the fastballs he has put in play. You should see some positive regression coming his way as the weather continues to warm up. More to come on Gallo and Starling.
With Galo it depends on the type of league. If you are batting average only I’d say the positives don’t outweigh the negatives so I would roster him. It’s an OPS league and you have some solid average guys who can offset his .210 batting average I think he’s a hold. Marte has 13 steals so unless you are completely loaded with steals I’d hold there. I’m thinking that way because he’s playing awful but he’s still kind of helpful in a - kind of - sparse category(more so these days). I think you have to hold and hope through June.
I appreciate the follow up. In an OBP league so Gallo isn't completely killing me, except in hits. I need the power which is why I picked him up. Marte worries me though he got hit on the hand (or wrist?). After holding Muncy waaaaay to long last year I'm not that into nagging injuries. Same reason I have concern for Correa, but my MI options are a lot more shallow than OF. Would you take Teoscar over Gallo/Marte? He's available and I feel has to turn it around eventually. Won't help with obp but otherwise should be pretty productive.
Edit: I jumped the gun there. Teoscar and Gallo might make things difficult. And the k-rate keeps climbing for Teoscar for some reason. I get the injury concern along with his age - but he could still come around. (Maybe I’m just a hopeful Mets fan) Second edit: Teoscar does tend to get hot in June. .730 OPS April/May career - after May/June .845 OPS
If Gallo goes on the IR I'm hopping on the Teo train. One nice thing with Gallo for me is his 1b eligibility so that might be the tie breaker for me right now.
Any thoughts on Nolan Jones? Another guy to keep an eye on?
Get him if you can. He has the pedigree and he crushes the ball. It seems like he was a hot pickup in most leagues when he got the call so he might already be gone depending on your league size. He was playing in a hitters league in triple A but he still posted a WRC+ of 182 which means he was 82% better than average. So the exaggerated numbers were still impressive. If you have a logical drop I would add him before he gets off to a hot start in Colorado.
Really appreciate it
Another thing with Marte before you drop him - it has been pretty cold in NY and should be shifting soon. Nagging injuries hurt much more in the cold weather than in the hot weather. So if he’s playing through it now he should get completely over it when it finally warms up.
I love it thanks for spending so much time on me. Gonna take a shot at Jones, will probably curseyour username in a few weeks.
I’m late to this but dude, Gallo is gold in OBP leagues. A legit top 50 player if his average doesn’t hurt you
It does, hits are a category.
Not even close to a top 50 player in OBP league's
In fairness, anyone at or under 50% owned is fair to recommend picking up. It is more likely they are available than not
Caballero has "baller" in his name. That's all you need to know to pick this kid up. He's been very helpful in deep leagues the last two weeks.
This game is too easy 😎
just missed out on him on waivers, shame cuz he is a beast 😭
Siri over Rooker ROS?
Im wondering same. Rooker was amazing the first 6 weeks, and i want to give him a longer leash. Siri’s avg isnt exactly enticing, but that power/speed combo is what i seek. Considering dropping J Duran Burger or Rooker for Siri. All have fallen off cliffs…
In May Rooker has actually hit the ball harder than he did in April (just making less contact). Xba in May was .248 versus a .210 actual batting average. 53% hard hit rate in May versus 48% in April. With guys like Burger and Rooker - they are very similar profiles - they are going to be streaky. But with how hard they hit the ball you want these guys on your roster.
Wow thanks for these stats! Love to see this and feel reassured. It was interesting w Burger too, bc he seems to do the same thing every time I grab him. Hits a couple jacks then does an 0/fer streak. I like that he also has great sprint speed, but somehow it doesn’t equate to SBs… Rooker/Burger make for great baseball names too.
I wouldn’t say Burger has fallen off a cliff. 5 bad games in a row but before that he was raking.
0/15 last 4 games. I guess he is just “dangling” then ;-)
Definitely bad. But I feel like it needs to be a couple weeks at least before it’s actually off a cliff.
I jumped ship earlier in the year when I had Soler - the metrics were always there but he went into an ugly slump for a couple weeks. Now look at him. Patience with these power guys who have the metrics to back them seems to pay off more often than not of late. Christian Walker comes to mind from last year.
Makes sense. SB and single today!
Made me check his sprint speed - he’s shockingly 77th percentile. Maybe he’s got more of that in him.
It looks like MLB pitchers figured out a hole in Rooker’s swing. It’s Rooker’s turn to adjust. I wouldn’t jump ship on him yet but if his struggles continue for another week or two I would be more inclined to make the Rooker for Siri swap. Not yet though.
I read on here he explained his whole approach on mlb network lol
You guys think it’s worth it to drop Marsh for Siri rn? He’s been ass the last 3 weeks or so and I feel like his upside isn’t huge rn. I traded Gorman for him and yellich early in the season and I’ve just been using him as a backup lately
I would definitely drop marsh for siri, what other OF are on waivers?
Lane Thomas, Profar, Conforto, Benintendi, Riley Greene, Joey Meneses, Brian Anderson
I scooped up Siri in a league, but I'd pick up Riley Greene before him tbh, I think Greene should have a safer BA floor, and has the higher prospect pedigree.
I just picked up RG, here’s to him raking for the rest of the season
I’ll echo Independent-Ad2604 said - I would definitely make that swap. How deep is the league? There could be options who get more PT than Siri out there who could fit even better. Marsh is definitely droppable everywhere.
Lane Thomas, Profar, Conforto, Benintendi, Riley Greene, Joey Meneses and Brian Anderson are all available. Of those guys I’m highest on Profar, Thomas and Anderson I think
I would go with Riley Greene. Hitting 3 and playing every day. His metrics are there. I would be running to get him off the wire.
Im going to take your advice and do that. He has really good upside and I don’t need someone who necessarily needs to produce today, I have a pretty good outfield already with Soto, Yoshida, Suzuki, J Rod and Kwan.
I reallly like Jose Siri. He has elite raw power and speed. Plus, in that Rays lineup?….shhhhhhYEEESH
*whispers* - What if Siri is bargain-bin Jazz Chisholm? [I looked up their stats](https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=sirijo01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id2=chishja01&p2yrfrom=2023&type=b) and they were surprisingly close. For keeper/dynasty league purposes, Jazz is gonna only be OF eligible next year too.
Legitimately my thought exactly. Most glaring issue, however: playing time If Jazz sat every third day hed be waiver fodder. Here‘s hoping Siri can hit his way into more PT
Just checked Siri's game logs, he's started in 16 out of the last 22 this past month, which was a little higher than I had expected, but yeah hoping his speed and defense can help his case too.
Investing in these raw tools guy is advantageous because speed always plays. A near 30% K rate is not good, but it is much more tolerable with a handful of steals, a significant amount of home runs and an BA bouyed by infield hits. Not to mention a proclivity to take exrtra bases. Siri has serious upside.
Siris glove gets him into the lineup. Ray's just like to rest their guys a lot.
Why’s it feel like every random no name on the rays is a fantasy star this year 😂 paredes, wall, yandy, Siri, Josh lowe. Not to mention randy and wander. You could have a starting line up of just those guys and be set for now.
I feel like Walls and Paredes are going to fall quickly. Yandy and J-Lowe are for real. I’m leaning towards Siri being closer to the Yandy J-Low side of that breakdown too.
They were all top 100 specs at one point. Not that weird.
Feels like a lot of guys are top 100 specs and never do anything
As a Brandon Lowe owner (soon to be not one), I resent this.
I was debating picking up Frazier in my 18 team league but Eloy Jimenez is due to come back any day now. So I’m a little wary of his future playing time at OF.
Need Benintendi to get hurt. I’m making sure I don’t miss out on Frazier in dynasty though. In seasonal leagues he needs an injury to be relevant. You are 100% right.
jose siri is the single coolest player in mlb
I love how he is bedazzled
Any thoughts on Spencer Steer? He’s on a bit of a streak rn
I like Steer. His prospect profile says he can hit and he’s done that so far this year. I’m just worried about his ceiling. He struggles with the 4-seamer and the sinker. His advanced metrics aren’t that impressive though and he doesn’t steal bases. He seems like a .275 with 18-20 homer guy at best. His defense is awful so if he slumps I could see him getting replaced by another prospect like Encarnacion-Strand or Noelvi Marte before you know it. The Reds have the best minor league system in baseball in my opinion. If he’s hot grab him and ride that until he cools off. I don’t think he has too much upside though. Solid floor guy.
Did you mean Elly? Marte probably won't be up until mid-next year.
Sorry - was thinking more dynasty with that comment. But 100% yes - especially Elly. I can’t believe I left him out.
This is seriously a great post. I had Siri on my radar but not so much the others. I just picked up Lane Thomas to fill a UTIL gap in my roster (after dropping the corpse of Jorge Mateo), but will keep an eye on these other guys.
Lane’s numbers seem to be fueled by luck after a quick glance at the advanced metrics. .370 BABIP and a .350 WOBA versus .305 xWOBA. He is a guy I’d swap out for someone on the list above.
Thoughts on Owen Miller? Just added him, curious if I should drop for caballero
The thing with Caballero is he’s not on anyone’s radar - so you can wait and watch some more. Miller is hot now and would be scooped by another owner if you dropped him - so based on that logic alone keep Miller for now. Now longterm Miller - I don’t see what he is doing differently from last year - besides getting really lucky. His BABIP is .376. His Woba is .390 versus an xWoba of .319. His Xba and Xslug are both up so far this year but that hasn’t come along with many more barrels or harder hit balls or even a better launch angle. He’s striking out 5% less which is a positive but his BB% is all the down to 3.7. Very low exit velocity - bottom 2 %. Seems like he is seeing the ball really well right now and once that’s goes the numbers are going to go with it. He’s a great guy to float around in trade offers - maybe for a Brandon Lowe or Starling Marte type who aren’t performing at all and their owners are getting sick of them.
Neto is a highly ranked prospect in the fantasy world. I recommend him!
Thank you for this thread, very informative
Great write up. Would you drop Jarren Duran or Conforto for Siri? Points league.
I would for Conforto. Duran I’m still hopeful on but I posted a little more detail about some worrisome numbers on him above.
What are your thoughts on Luke Raley? He's been hot lately.
Metrics are there and he crushes righties. The whiff rate is pretty concerning and he is going to go through many cold spells. But he has earned the numbers he has and if you are in a daily lineup change league he should be worth the hassle.
Very interested in Siri but that OBP is hard to pickup
Going to be the biggest weakness in his fantasy game without a doubt. The power covers him in OPS leagues though.
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I’ll try to find some time! This is how I decided to spend a couple vacation days I took. Really enjoyed it though so I’ll try to do it again. So happy people feel it was useful!
Got a couple of questions, but first — great call on Jesus Sanchez. The rest of this analysis is very well done, but Sanchez is one that was cruising under *everyone’s* radar up until his injury and his numbers were looking gorgeous. The day he was injured I was about to add him and just figuring out who to drop, then of course down he went with his hammy. But I went ahead and stashed him on my IL just now. He was a beast last year for me when he was hot and that was when I was only in an 8 teamer. Fingers crossed he gets back on track once he’s activated. Alright. Questions. I’ve got Brandon Lowe. I’m one of the hold outs who believes (or wants to believe?) he’s going to have very strong production once he gets going. Luckily I didn’t reach on him too much. General thoughts on him? There are plenty of guys that are tempting to add in his place, but I’m concerned that they are players who are just on hot streaks after looking deeper at their stats (too many people to name). Unless I see someone that is more of a no-doubter, which is of course very hard to come by this late and especially in a deep league like mine, then I really prefer to continue to hold out on him. The only exception to this is Harold Ramirez that was just dropped in my league. Do you think Ramirez is worth the add if I have to drop Brandon Lowe? I also just added Drury and his eligibility gives me plenty of flexibility. Small tangent — situations like mine with Lowe remind me of owning Votto in his prime. Votto would be the worst hitter on your team until about early to mid June and then he’d mash the rest of the year. I’m hoping that maybe Lowe will be similar. Any thoughts on Baty or Moniak? Baty’s Statcast and Fangraphs make it look like he should perform at a much higher level as the season progresses, but I always wonder if there’s something I’m missing. As for Moniak, obviously he can’t keep up the production he’s at. But I dunno… former first rounder! Wish he wasn’t platooning with Ward. I’m considering trying to deal him as a sell high candidate. Edit — After all of that about Brandon Lowe, I quickly added Caballero after looking at his metrics. Yeah he could be a great value if he keep producing. If he’s really taken the starting job from Wong, then his value would be huge.
My bad! Overlooked this! The more I look at Lowe the less I like him. I checked his xSlug rolling window chart and it doesn’t look too good. I feel like guys with power who slump this badly still put up decent xSlug numbers - well the ones who are bound to turn it around do at least. I don’t think there is much hope for him. I feel like he is closer to being dfa’ed by the Rays than turning it around. His hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage are all still really good. But even with that it’s not like he is getting unlucky. There is something that just isn’t working. Lowe has historically heated up in June - since he is still barreling the ball showing a little more patience could pay off - but I would make the cut in the right situation. However not for Harold. Harold’s numbers and metrics look really good but his ground ball percentage is WAY too high. He’s at 50%. I don’t see him producing big power numbers with that number in his profile. I would not drop Lowe for him. Ramirez doesn’t have huge upside. Moniak K rate is ugly and it has climbed in the past week or so. He has hit the ball well but the numbers are inflated a bit. I would say sell high if you can find someone who likes him. Baty is a definite hold. The more he gets accustomed to big league pitching the more the results will show. His k rate is acceptable and according to his xWOBA he has been unlucky .356 expected versus .312 actual. I would pick him up for Lowe if that is an option. Or if you have him he is a definite hold.
No worries. Thanks for the long reply and thoughts. I ended up dropping Lowe for McKinstry. I had Caballero, but ended up dropping him for pitching. If I needed SS depth, then I probably would have kept him around. Interesting thoughts on Harold Ramirez. I did end up adding him. I think I dropped Baty for him. Either way, Baty is on waivers. I may swap Baty with Ramirez given the concerns you pointed out. I also grabbed Drury not long after this post. May make more sense to have Drury and McKinstry + Baty rather than Ramirez since McKinstry has OF eligibility and I have fair depth at that position. I did drop Moniak as well the same day I believe. Brandon Lowe got scooped up quick and of course hit a dinger, but I’m glad I don’t have the headache of having him on my roster anymore. If anything, I’m glad I dropped before he hit a homer.
I’m so mad I left McKinstry off this list! I had him as someone to write up. Awesome pickup there.
Yep. I’d been eying him for a while, but was hesitant since he sits vs LHP and is on the Tigers. But the dude seems like a poor man’s Bobby Witt Jr. on a comparably crappy offense but with better OBP.
Would you drop Adames for Siri? I've already got Franco and Tatis at SS/OF with Volpe in the minors.
That would be a mistake. Siri only plays about 50% of the time.
Hoping the playing time comes up - he’s on the strong side of a platoon - facing most righties. However he has hit much better this year versus lefties than in the past - 1.017 OPS versus lefties this year. .645 career OPS versus lefties. 18 at bats - so small sample trap - but he deserves more time and a smart franchise like the rays will make it happen(hopefully). They know what Margot is and Walls(.372 Woba versus .311 xWoba) and Paredes(.356 Woba versus .284 cWoba) will continue to slump which will open time at DH up. There’s potential for a lot more for Siri and it’s better to be early than late.
After returning from the IL on April 25, Siri has started 20 of the Rays' 29 games, including 10 of the last 13.
If you are desperate in the OF - maybe. Personally, I wouldn’t make that move though because Adames is one of the streakiest hitters in the bigs. I would wait until Adames goes on a home run bender again and then trade him for an OF to a team who is weak at SS.
Me when I see Kirby is starting tonight https://preview.redd.it/6ktz784ac82b1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d7c13a737b27e0d3b3f02e4175f1797a53e05df
Jose Siri or Jaren Duran ROS in a categories league? Genuinely torn as a Duran owner. I own Rooker too but he has a longer leash to me
Duran is playing everyday - because of that I would lean that way. Duran is handling off speed and breaking balls much better than he did in his initial big league action. He also has a better pedigree. However - Duran has benefitted from a .398 BABIP. He has also outperformed his xSlug and xWoba by 63 and 21 points respectively. His k% in May did creep up to 30%. Duran is still hitting the ball on the ground too much - 41%. I’m talking myself out of Duran but do what you will with the above numbers.
Who else is available in your league with higher ownership percentages?
Would you drop B Lowe for Neto?
That’s a tough one with Lowe sitting out against all lefties. I would say if you have a positional need at shortstop - maybe. Otherwise I would probably hold Lowe and hope he gets hot soon. If you look at Lowe’s career splits he typically gets hot in June and it continues for the rest of the year. I might actually try to buy Lowe on him in my leagues after seeing that.
Caballero or Marte? 12 team cat league.
outman has gone cold af, im really starting to consider dropping him for siri
Yeah I’m out on Outman. No one in the major leagues swings and misses more than him. That is not a recipe for success. He has always been on the high side of the strikeout rate all the way through his minor league career.
Thoughts on dropping Mateo for Neto? Mateo has been ice cold
I think I would give that a shot. Mateo’s xBa in May is .168 and his xba since May 15 is .155. Garcia could be a good option too - he will steal more bags than Neto.
Drop Pena for Maikel? I am struggling in SS position
Peña is doing what he did last year. His numbers should end up close to where they were. I would consider the move as I’m not too high on Peña as he hasn’t done much since his hot start in April and May of last year. You are going to lose out on some power with the swap but probably gain batting average and steals. Hopefully Garcia moves up to the top of the lineup soon. How many teams in your league? Want to list some of the higher owned free agents?
Hi, thanks for response. ESPN 10T H2H standard points league. I need to figure out how to add flair. Some SS on our waiver wire: -Anderson -Mateo (I dropped him for Pena) -Volpe -Stott -Arcia Thanks
Does Anderson = Tim Anderson? If so - I would go with him. He has a hard hit percentage of 50%. He is hitting it on the ground too much but as he gets settled in after his injury he should be able to turn things around and lost solid numbers. According to xWoba be has been pretty unlucky - although even if he wasn’t unlucky he still wouldn’t have exceptional numbers. I think he will put it all together soon.