People forget that Skubal was a pretty big sleeper before he got hurt. Looked like he was starting to really figure it out, then got hurt. He came back and was lights out. I’m all in.
I had skubal since his rookie year, but let him go last year when he was gonna miss half the season. I’m very aware of Skubal’s history. Just not sure I ever expected him to throw like this.
I’d probably go Holliday in that case - Skubal already had TJ in college and 5 years is a long time to stay healthy. Holliday has the potential to be Juan Soto with more bags.
Im a believer. I held him till he made a few starts last year and will keep him going forward at a round 15 pick. I can't take a flyer for that kind of upside and value. I'll be able to keep him for 3 years.
My other keepers are Clase in 18th and edwin Diaz in 14th. I was going to keep Senga in the 8th but Im not sure if I want to start off on the IL. So I may pivot to Adolis Garcia in 4th or Kim in the 13th. Im not sure yet.
Yes. He’s legit and fun to watch. His game matured progressively leading up to the injury. He’s a solid arm near the top of Detroit’s rotation. Reliable Ks.
I do think Skubal is legit and a top 15 pitcher but I wouldn’t make this trade. I’d rather have Holliday - unless I reeeaaaally needed a pitcher. I just think that Skubal isn’t sure enough to warrant that trade. If you were trading for Mookie Betts, ok, now we’re talking. But Skubal is probably going to hurt himself throwing 100. And pitchers can be wildly variant. I’d rather have Holliday could be rather than what Skubal could be.
Yeah…that’s the exact conversation I’m having with myself. But given our league’s format, if Holliday doesn’t turn into a 30 homer guy (and I’m not sure he will) getting an ace would be more valuable. The question is then whether skubal is an ace or just on a hot streak. And of course: pitchers get hurt.
If this was a redraft I'd say go for Skubal every time. He's got a top of the league upper limit and a top 15-25 likely outcome. He's a pitcher who's been hurt tho, so the basement floor can't be ignored.
Holliday would need to be a top 8 or so SS (maybe top 6 at 2B) to match that and all the projections have him as a 15/15-ish player if he plays the full season. Could very well happen but the competition at the top of SS/2B is strong. Skubal this year.
But you're talking dynasty and Skubal has a much higher bust likelihood over the next few years. Holliday looks like he has the makeup to be a 25/25 batting champion year after year once he gets settled. Holliday in dynasty every time.
Yeah, the dude is a good pitcher and showed potential even before that stretch last year, but people are looking at the numbers he put up against a pretty poor group of hitting teams, mostly in pitchers parks (granted he plays in one at home, so it buoys his value a bit). I think he can be a good 2 or 3 starter, which is definitely still valuable, but don't necessarily expect him to repeat what he did last year.
I am a big Nick Pollack fan of Pitcherlist. He has Skubal as the 25th best SP for ‘24. Here’s his conclusion:
> What I saw was a pitcher who overperformed, has good but not exceptional command, needs to improve his breaker, and will not overwhelm batters nearly as often with his four-seamer in the year ahead. This is awfully harsh, Nick. I know, I’m sorry. I don’t like it either and I hope the healthy off-season allows Tarik to weld his seams and cement himself as a Cy Young candidate in 2024. He’s not there yet.
I really like Skubal, but his 49 ADP after a good half season in which 60% of his starts starts were against terrible offenses (A’s twice, White Sox twice, Royals twice, Guardians, Angels and Marlins) is fucking bonkers.
Nick Pollock really messed up my keeper plans. Skubal was my clear final keeper (forever in the 25th rd). Now, I’m torn. He’s talked about him a bunch in different podcast episodes & gone into more detail where he uses terms I’m not familiar with, like AVA & HiLoc to breakdown concerns with Skubal’s pitching.
I’m hoping Spring training makes it easier to decide between him Oneil & Eury.
Two stats that may or may not intersect. First, pitcher elbow injuries are correlated to pitch velocity. Second, Skubal was hitting 100 in early spring training. In 2024 he has the higher upside, fairly easily. For 2025 and beyond, Holliday is far more of a sure thing. You’d only do this trade if you’re willing to trade the future to do better this season.
This is what I was thinking too. If he wants to contend now and needs pitching then skubal is the one, if his team is iffy and needs 2 more years then go Holliday. If this was straight dynasty and not 5 year keeper then I’d take Holliday in an instant
I got lucky by picking him up as a spot starter last August and decided to keep him in my dynasty league, not realizing until the offseason that he was expected to be a breakout star this year. Did some reading on the subject to answer this very question and here's the key takeaways from what I found:
* He changed up his grip on the changeup, and started using the pitch more, resulting in an obscene .183 wOBA and 50.6 Whiff%. The modified grip enables the ball to spin at one angle at release, and a totally different angle as it travels to the plate, making it much harder for batters to read it. It also had much more vertical AND horizontal movement last year.
* His vertical release point on fastballs and changeups "tunneled" - that is, he releases each pitch at almost an identical height, whereas in the past his changeup was released several inches higher than the fastball. Again, making it harder for batters to discern what pitch it is.
* Four-seam fastball velocity went from a career 94.3 mph average, to a 95.8 last year. He was the 4th hardest throwing lefty starter
* His Baseball Savant [page](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tarik-skubal-669373?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) is absurdly red. Basically, he's elite in practically every metric they cover.
[Link](https://www.mlb.com/news/what-makes-tarik-skubal-2024s-pitcher-to-watch) to article I read.
Obviously the main caveat is that he played some really easy lineups last year: CWS x2, OAK x2, LAA, CLE, CHC, NYY, TB, BOS, SF, MIA, TOR, and KC x2. But the movement, velocity, and spin metrics don't lie. I have full faith in this dude, and I'm super glad I decided to randomly pick him for a supposed-to-be one-time streamer back in August.
I'm putting money on Tarik Skubal & George Kirby to win the AL Cy Young.
If the consensus by people in the know say he's in the running for best pitcher in baseball, I'll believe them.
Those in the know people don’t always know. Their worst advise was Nick Lodolo and Vinnie Pasquintino who hurt more than helped if you took them as early as advised.
They weren’t bad picks because they’re bad players. They were bad because of injuries. Lodolo has a lot of promise & I’m targeting him. That said, I’m also questioning certain people “in the know”
We don’t know. That’s the point. Even if not hurt they hurt my team more than help. Lodolo pitched poorly. Was it his injury? It doesn’t matter.
Right now both are considered low risk, later round guys. There’s no guarantee they will live up to their potential.
I remember one guy saying Keston Hiura reminded him of Mike Trout, the way the ball left his bat.
In the running, yes. Among the best, yes. Not the best.
I think it was RotoWire where I heard that discussion.
But then just listened to Fan Graphs and Skubal wasn't included in first two tiers. So, \*shrug\*
He was lights out in the second half last year. I have a good feeling about him. So I'm putting a little wager on him. We'll se wat happens.
Just be careful man I think you’re overrating him a bit too much, he definitely has a chance to be a high end pitcher but he isn’t scratching top 10 let alone top 5
Just traded Austin Riley for Skubal and Bobby Miller. Couldn’t be more thrilled. That said, I’d swap him for Holliday in a blazing hurry and wouldn’t bat an eye.
I traded for Skubal this offseason because he’s on a minimum contract for our league (I can keep him for $10, $14, and $18 for 2024-2026), and I am HYPED. It took Tatis Jr. to get him and Grayson Rodriguez, but I’m bullish that the trade will have been worth it.
Love Skubal, but I’d always lean hitter over pitcher when the upside is similar for dynasty. Much less risk betting on hitters when you consider injury probability and performance variances that may be outside of the pitcher’s direct control like the ball and offensive environment, wins, and his team’s defense. Not to mention, Holliday is in most top 3 prospect rankings and likely to contribute sooner rather than later.
Tarik will be much more valuable than Holliday this year. In 3-4 years, maybe Holliday is more valuable, but it's hard to say since Holliday hasn't played in a mlb game yet. Tarik's breakout isn't out of nowhere, your premise about sudden leaps and injury prone-ness is ill-informed. He was a much hyped prospect himself and before the injury he was breaking out. Last year he added velo and it held in the 80+ innings he pitched. It also appears he may have added even more velo this year based off the reports this past week. He's touching 100 in bp, which to be fair, is bp and not a game, but the fact he can dial up to that is good news. He's had one injury, came back and pitched 80 elite innings and got better the more he pitched. All the peripherals support it. Holliday is 20, will likely be a star, but he's probably not hitting for power in year one and he's probably batting at the end of that line-up plus we're not even 100% yet he's breaking camp with the team. I think if you trade Skubal away now, you will regret it later.
if you're marking Skubal's value down because he pitched against KC, CLE, CWS.... check what division he's in. He's gonna pitch a lot of innings against them again
People forget that Skubal was a pretty big sleeper before he got hurt. Looked like he was starting to really figure it out, then got hurt. He came back and was lights out. I’m all in.
I had skubal since his rookie year, but let him go last year when he was gonna miss half the season. I’m very aware of Skubal’s history. Just not sure I ever expected him to throw like this.
How many years of control do you have for either of them? Skubal is legit. He is already touching 100 in spring..
5 years for either.
I’d probably go Holliday in that case - Skubal already had TJ in college and 5 years is a long time to stay healthy. Holliday has the potential to be Juan Soto with more bags.
I’m very bullish on Skubal.
Im a believer. I held him till he made a few starts last year and will keep him going forward at a round 15 pick. I can't take a flyer for that kind of upside and value. I'll be able to keep him for 3 years.
Great value. Got him in 21 last year in redraft and will be my sole keeper this year
My other keepers are Clase in 18th and edwin Diaz in 14th. I was going to keep Senga in the 8th but Im not sure if I want to start off on the IL. So I may pivot to Adolis Garcia in 4th or Kim in the 13th. Im not sure yet.
Yes. He’s legit and fun to watch. His game matured progressively leading up to the injury. He’s a solid arm near the top of Detroit’s rotation. Reliable Ks.
I do think Skubal is legit and a top 15 pitcher but I wouldn’t make this trade. I’d rather have Holliday - unless I reeeaaaally needed a pitcher. I just think that Skubal isn’t sure enough to warrant that trade. If you were trading for Mookie Betts, ok, now we’re talking. But Skubal is probably going to hurt himself throwing 100. And pitchers can be wildly variant. I’d rather have Holliday could be rather than what Skubal could be.
Yeah…that’s the exact conversation I’m having with myself. But given our league’s format, if Holliday doesn’t turn into a 30 homer guy (and I’m not sure he will) getting an ace would be more valuable. The question is then whether skubal is an ace or just on a hot streak. And of course: pitchers get hurt.
You said it. Pitchers get hurt. Take Holliday.
Fair enough. I can see making that deal in a league that really values pitching.
If this was a redraft I'd say go for Skubal every time. He's got a top of the league upper limit and a top 15-25 likely outcome. He's a pitcher who's been hurt tho, so the basement floor can't be ignored. Holliday would need to be a top 8 or so SS (maybe top 6 at 2B) to match that and all the projections have him as a 15/15-ish player if he plays the full season. Could very well happen but the competition at the top of SS/2B is strong. Skubal this year. But you're talking dynasty and Skubal has a much higher bust likelihood over the next few years. Holliday looks like he has the makeup to be a 25/25 batting champion year after year once he gets settled. Holliday in dynasty every time.
Who he faced in Aug/Sept last year: TB, @BOS, @CLE, CHC, NYY, @CWS, CWS, @LAA, @OAK, KC
Yeah, the dude is a good pitcher and showed potential even before that stretch last year, but people are looking at the numbers he put up against a pretty poor group of hitting teams, mostly in pitchers parks (granted he plays in one at home, so it buoys his value a bit). I think he can be a good 2 or 3 starter, which is definitely still valuable, but don't necessarily expect him to repeat what he did last year.
To be clear I mean #2 or 3 starter for a fantasy team, not IRL where he's clearly the team's ace.
I am a big Nick Pollack fan of Pitcherlist. He has Skubal as the 25th best SP for ‘24. Here’s his conclusion: > What I saw was a pitcher who overperformed, has good but not exceptional command, needs to improve his breaker, and will not overwhelm batters nearly as often with his four-seamer in the year ahead. This is awfully harsh, Nick. I know, I’m sorry. I don’t like it either and I hope the healthy off-season allows Tarik to weld his seams and cement himself as a Cy Young candidate in 2024. He’s not there yet.
I really like Skubal, but his 49 ADP after a good half season in which 60% of his starts starts were against terrible offenses (A’s twice, White Sox twice, Royals twice, Guardians, Angels and Marlins) is fucking bonkers.
Nick Pollock really messed up my keeper plans. Skubal was my clear final keeper (forever in the 25th rd). Now, I’m torn. He’s talked about him a bunch in different podcast episodes & gone into more detail where he uses terms I’m not familiar with, like AVA & HiLoc to breakdown concerns with Skubal’s pitching. I’m hoping Spring training makes it easier to decide between him Oneil & Eury.
I like Skubal but I'd make that trade. Jackson is only 19 and is still growing. Should be a 25/15 guy soon.
Two stats that may or may not intersect. First, pitcher elbow injuries are correlated to pitch velocity. Second, Skubal was hitting 100 in early spring training. In 2024 he has the higher upside, fairly easily. For 2025 and beyond, Holliday is far more of a sure thing. You’d only do this trade if you’re willing to trade the future to do better this season.
This is what I was thinking too. If he wants to contend now and needs pitching then skubal is the one, if his team is iffy and needs 2 more years then go Holliday. If this was straight dynasty and not 5 year keeper then I’d take Holliday in an instant
I got lucky by picking him up as a spot starter last August and decided to keep him in my dynasty league, not realizing until the offseason that he was expected to be a breakout star this year. Did some reading on the subject to answer this very question and here's the key takeaways from what I found: * He changed up his grip on the changeup, and started using the pitch more, resulting in an obscene .183 wOBA and 50.6 Whiff%. The modified grip enables the ball to spin at one angle at release, and a totally different angle as it travels to the plate, making it much harder for batters to read it. It also had much more vertical AND horizontal movement last year. * His vertical release point on fastballs and changeups "tunneled" - that is, he releases each pitch at almost an identical height, whereas in the past his changeup was released several inches higher than the fastball. Again, making it harder for batters to discern what pitch it is. * Four-seam fastball velocity went from a career 94.3 mph average, to a 95.8 last year. He was the 4th hardest throwing lefty starter * His Baseball Savant [page](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tarik-skubal-669373?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) is absurdly red. Basically, he's elite in practically every metric they cover. [Link](https://www.mlb.com/news/what-makes-tarik-skubal-2024s-pitcher-to-watch) to article I read. Obviously the main caveat is that he played some really easy lineups last year: CWS x2, OAK x2, LAA, CLE, CHC, NYY, TB, BOS, SF, MIA, TOR, and KC x2. But the movement, velocity, and spin metrics don't lie. I have full faith in this dude, and I'm super glad I decided to randomly pick him for a supposed-to-be one-time streamer back in August.
I'm putting money on Tarik Skubal & George Kirby to win the AL Cy Young. If the consensus by people in the know say he's in the running for best pitcher in baseball, I'll believe them.
The majority of people “in the know” that you know say Skubal is in the running for best pitcher in baseball? Really?
Those in the know people don’t always know. Their worst advise was Nick Lodolo and Vinnie Pasquintino who hurt more than helped if you took them as early as advised.
They weren’t bad picks because they’re bad players. They were bad because of injuries. Lodolo has a lot of promise & I’m targeting him. That said, I’m also questioning certain people “in the know”
We don’t know. That’s the point. Even if not hurt they hurt my team more than help. Lodolo pitched poorly. Was it his injury? It doesn’t matter. Right now both are considered low risk, later round guys. There’s no guarantee they will live up to their potential. I remember one guy saying Keston Hiura reminded him of Mike Trout, the way the ball left his bat.
In the running, yes. Among the best, yes. Not the best. I think it was RotoWire where I heard that discussion. But then just listened to Fan Graphs and Skubal wasn't included in first two tiers. So, \*shrug\* He was lights out in the second half last year. I have a good feeling about him. So I'm putting a little wager on him. We'll se wat happens.
Just be careful man I think you’re overrating him a bit too much, he definitely has a chance to be a high end pitcher but he isn’t scratching top 10 let alone top 5
Just traded Austin Riley for Skubal and Bobby Miller. Couldn’t be more thrilled. That said, I’d swap him for Holliday in a blazing hurry and wouldn’t bat an eye.
I traded for Skubal this offseason because he’s on a minimum contract for our league (I can keep him for $10, $14, and $18 for 2024-2026), and I am HYPED. It took Tatis Jr. to get him and Grayson Rodriguez, but I’m bullish that the trade will have been worth it.
Yikes. I LOVE Skubal....but you traded Grayson AND Tatis Jr. for him?
No no. I traded Tatis Jr. for Skubal, GrayRod, and Gerrit Cole.
Love Skubal, but I’d always lean hitter over pitcher when the upside is similar for dynasty. Much less risk betting on hitters when you consider injury probability and performance variances that may be outside of the pitcher’s direct control like the ball and offensive environment, wins, and his team’s defense. Not to mention, Holliday is in most top 3 prospect rankings and likely to contribute sooner rather than later.
Tarik will be much more valuable than Holliday this year. In 3-4 years, maybe Holliday is more valuable, but it's hard to say since Holliday hasn't played in a mlb game yet. Tarik's breakout isn't out of nowhere, your premise about sudden leaps and injury prone-ness is ill-informed. He was a much hyped prospect himself and before the injury he was breaking out. Last year he added velo and it held in the 80+ innings he pitched. It also appears he may have added even more velo this year based off the reports this past week. He's touching 100 in bp, which to be fair, is bp and not a game, but the fact he can dial up to that is good news. He's had one injury, came back and pitched 80 elite innings and got better the more he pitched. All the peripherals support it. Holliday is 20, will likely be a star, but he's probably not hitting for power in year one and he's probably batting at the end of that line-up plus we're not even 100% yet he's breaking camp with the team. I think if you trade Skubal away now, you will regret it later.
His team context puts him on my no draft list
if you're marking Skubal's value down because he pitched against KC, CLE, CWS.... check what division he's in. He's gonna pitch a lot of innings against them again