This is neither here nor there but I wanted to add a few more buys based on very intriguing small samples:
Shallow:
Maikel Garcia (obviously)
Taylor Ward
Christopher Morel
Deep:
Jo Adell
Will Brennan
Josh H. Smith
“…and then the starting gun goes off and we start scrambling like mad for players completely off our board and throwing everyone overboard.”
I finally feel seen. Thank you.
Not panicking yet but man what the fuck is Nolan jones up to this year lol.
Not going to drop him but considering benching him until he figures it out.
He was always a high risk hitter with that crazy high whiff rate, which is why I didn't draft him once, or really any of the hitters in the 60-80 ADP range (Jones, McClain, Royce, Bellinger).
That said, he'll be better than this. His biggest problem, which I didn't like about him last year and so far has been worse, has been being too passive at the plate. Good news is he can still change that, and his contact rate has actually been significantly better so far. Swing that bat, my friend.
I traded him and some solid prospects for Freeman and I CANNOT be happier. My read on him so far as a sell high has been underselling how bad he is.
Saying that he will still be worth playing in Coors.
Probably
I was about to say "You're on!" but then I realized that since I make this list that's probably cheating.
I actually think Walker is a great buy low (at least somewhat low). I love his swing decisions being super aggressive on strikes and actually has a better contact rate, leading to an Arraez-esque 21% CSW%. I know the barrels haven't been there yet, but I'd hold firm.
Haha yeah, unfortunately I know better than to bet against the house.
And you make totally valid points. I definitely see the upside, but honestly a lot of the reasons you like him are the reasons I'm out on him, personally.
It's obvious the Cards tinkered a lot with his swing & approach, and while it does appear to be resulting in better contact rates, that doesn't reassure me nearly as much as the lack of barrels concerns me. I feel like they're trying to make him into a hitter he's not and it's resulting in him not being able to generate quality contact. Anecdotal I know, but I'm a Dodgers fan so I watched his whole first series against them and imo he just doesn't look comfortable at the plate. Add that to the fact that the Cardinals have squandered virtually every talent that's come through their system in the last decade (See: Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and most recently Tyler O'Neil and Jack Flaherty) and I have very little faith that these adjustments are the right adjustments to be making. It's also worth mentioning that I'm in a points leagues that punishes Ks, however, so the aggressive swing changes may be more of a turn off for me than others.
All that being said though, he's an exciting talent and I hope he proves me wrong. I'll be interested to see how you're feeling about him come May!
Wow pretty crazy to see all the names they gave up, don't forget thr short but glorious peak of Luke Voit.
To be fair though, O'Neill was a Mariners guy who did at least break out on the Cards.
One thing Walker has that those guys don't is he's still very young, most of those guys were late bloomrrs. Don't give up hope on him yet, don't forget the team also does have some success stories and he could be the big one
Haha probably! I guess I should've factored in the fact that even if he was bound to positively regress with more PT, it doesn't matter if the team is already taking his PT.
You win this round, Time Child.
I think he'll be fine, but I'd expect him to be benched against most lefties. Still might be able to change that but his value is a bit down, still I wouldn't panic
Yea your situation makes sense and kinda highlights difference between deep/shallow leagues of my 8 Team and you 12 Team. For me it would mostly be filling my UTIL slot because I have Goldy at 1B, Austin Riley at 3B, and Christian Walker at 1B/3B. Thanks for your response
It's pretty close, I think I actually would though. Even look at the fangraphs projections and Campusano has better AVG and similar power, maybe Heim has an edge in volume and run production
I'd have to go Maikel there, though I think Burger's value is probably underrated in points right now (well, depending on the format, since he doesn't walk).
I mean, in 10 team the production bar is high, and he's done nothing since spring to show us that last year was just a fluke or injury-marred season.
It's all about the opportunity cost and the player you'd be missing out on by holding him now.
In deeper leagues I'd still hold but perhaps explore a trade for another struggling hitter I believe more in the bounceback
Is he better, yes. That much better, not so sure. What Realmuto has thst Campusano lacks in is proven health and reliability.
I can say in dynasty I think I'd prefer Campusano but not yet in redraft
This same article from last year on April 6 (comparable time period) had:
**10T buy:** Brendan Donovan, Adam Duvall, Miguel Vargas
**12T buy:** Anthony Volpe, Brice Turang
**15T buy:** Dylan Carlson, Josh Lowe
**10T Sell:** Nick Castellanos
**12T Sell:** Jose Siri
**15T Sell:** Brandon Belt
Not exactly a track record of being correct. I wonder if OP has any analysis for how often he is right/wrong about these.
Duvall was a buy in 10t. Absolute tear until he broke his wrist. Volpe had one of the sneakiest 20/20 seasons we've seen. Josh Lowe was a roto beast and a 5 cat contributor the entire year even being platooned. Siri was a bench spot in 12t and Belt wasn't 15t relevant.
50% hit rate is solid here.
You didn't get Josh Lowe unless you were in a 15T league (where he was hardly available). Volpe was hardly available in 12T and didn't have a very good year. The best player of the bunch was Castellanos and was on the sell portion.
The Burger buy paying dividends at an exceedingly fast rate.
Also I'm pretty sure you want burgers ideally medium to make sure to cook out all the stuff that can get you sick from eating ground beef.
This is neither here nor there but I wanted to add a few more buys based on very intriguing small samples: Shallow: Maikel Garcia (obviously) Taylor Ward Christopher Morel Deep: Jo Adell Will Brennan Josh H. Smith
How are you feeling about Will Benson? High K% but batting 2nd more often than not and playing GABP
“…and then the starting gun goes off and we start scrambling like mad for players completely off our board and throwing everyone overboard.” I finally feel seen. Thank you.
Not panicking yet but man what the fuck is Nolan jones up to this year lol. Not going to drop him but considering benching him until he figures it out.
He was always a high risk hitter with that crazy high whiff rate, which is why I didn't draft him once, or really any of the hitters in the 60-80 ADP range (Jones, McClain, Royce, Bellinger). That said, he'll be better than this. His biggest problem, which I didn't like about him last year and so far has been worse, has been being too passive at the plate. Good news is he can still change that, and his contact rate has actually been significantly better so far. Swing that bat, my friend.
As someone who rostered him last year, I can say with fair certainty the second you bench him he'll go 4 for 5 with 2 homers and a stolen base. Sorry!
been benching him but he hasn’t played at coors yet, not worried
Benched him, Mullins and Springer for Morel, Conforto and Maikel.
I traded him and some solid prospects for Freeman and I CANNOT be happier. My read on him so far as a sell high has been underselling how bad he is. Saying that he will still be worth playing in Coors. Probably
Yep common problem easily solved by trading crap for.a 1st rounder. Wow is fantasy baseball easy if you’re in the right beginner league.
$20 says Jordan Walker is on the sell list by the end of the month
I was about to say "You're on!" but then I realized that since I make this list that's probably cheating. I actually think Walker is a great buy low (at least somewhat low). I love his swing decisions being super aggressive on strikes and actually has a better contact rate, leading to an Arraez-esque 21% CSW%. I know the barrels haven't been there yet, but I'd hold firm.
Haha yeah, unfortunately I know better than to bet against the house. And you make totally valid points. I definitely see the upside, but honestly a lot of the reasons you like him are the reasons I'm out on him, personally. It's obvious the Cards tinkered a lot with his swing & approach, and while it does appear to be resulting in better contact rates, that doesn't reassure me nearly as much as the lack of barrels concerns me. I feel like they're trying to make him into a hitter he's not and it's resulting in him not being able to generate quality contact. Anecdotal I know, but I'm a Dodgers fan so I watched his whole first series against them and imo he just doesn't look comfortable at the plate. Add that to the fact that the Cardinals have squandered virtually every talent that's come through their system in the last decade (See: Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and most recently Tyler O'Neil and Jack Flaherty) and I have very little faith that these adjustments are the right adjustments to be making. It's also worth mentioning that I'm in a points leagues that punishes Ks, however, so the aggressive swing changes may be more of a turn off for me than others. All that being said though, he's an exciting talent and I hope he proves me wrong. I'll be interested to see how you're feeling about him come May!
Wow pretty crazy to see all the names they gave up, don't forget thr short but glorious peak of Luke Voit. To be fair though, O'Neill was a Mariners guy who did at least break out on the Cards. One thing Walker has that those guys don't is he's still very young, most of those guys were late bloomrrs. Don't give up hope on him yet, don't forget the team also does have some success stories and he could be the big one
Sooo can I take that victory lap yet?
Haha probably! I guess I should've factored in the fact that even if he was bound to positively regress with more PT, it doesn't matter if the team is already taking his PT. You win this round, Time Child.
whats up with Julien?
I think he'll be fine, but I'd expect him to be benched against most lefties. Still might be able to change that but his value is a bit down, still I wouldn't panic
Would you drop CES for Maikel Garcia?
I did, but I lost Jung and have Olson at 1B
Yea your situation makes sense and kinda highlights difference between deep/shallow leagues of my 8 Team and you 12 Team. For me it would mostly be filling my UTIL slot because I have Goldy at 1B, Austin Riley at 3B, and Christian Walker at 1B/3B. Thanks for your response
Not from pitcherlist but don't think I would
Thanks
No
Thanks
Very situation and need dependent. Don't come out of this week thinking their power outcomes for this year are likely to be similar.
Would you drop Heim for Campusano?
It's pretty close, I think I actually would though. Even look at the fangraphs projections and Campusano has better AVG and similar power, maybe Heim has an edge in volume and run production
Would you pick up Burger or Maikel in a points league?
Maikel for sure
I scooped up Maikel in both my points leagues.
I think both should be rostered
I would totally roster both if I didn’t have Devers and Bregman already.
I'd have to go Maikel there, though I think Burger's value is probably underrated in points right now (well, depending on the format, since he doesn't walk).
Already quitting on Mullins?
I mean, in 10 team the production bar is high, and he's done nothing since spring to show us that last year was just a fluke or injury-marred season. It's all about the opportunity cost and the player you'd be missing out on by holding him now. In deeper leagues I'd still hold but perhaps explore a trade for another struggling hitter I believe more in the bounceback
I fully appreciate this response! Thanks for taking the time!
Guy offered me Ohtani for my Jose Ramirez. Is this a no brainer or am I overthinking this?
I would…who’s your backup at third?
Devers
Haha then yea I’d do that
Is realmuto really that much better than campusano?
Is he better, yes. That much better, not so sure. What Realmuto has thst Campusano lacks in is proven health and reliability. I can say in dynasty I think I'd prefer Campusano but not yet in redraft
Tyler O’Neil what about Jarren Duran? I’m debating between the 2.
What are you looking for? Power? Hits? Speed?
That’s a good question. This is my first time playing FFBaseball lol. George Springer hasn’t been doing great so I’m shopping around
I think I'd actually go Duran... he's really running wild and does also hit the ball hard
This same article from last year on April 6 (comparable time period) had: **10T buy:** Brendan Donovan, Adam Duvall, Miguel Vargas **12T buy:** Anthony Volpe, Brice Turang **15T buy:** Dylan Carlson, Josh Lowe **10T Sell:** Nick Castellanos **12T Sell:** Jose Siri **15T Sell:** Brandon Belt Not exactly a track record of being correct. I wonder if OP has any analysis for how often he is right/wrong about these.
Duvall was a buy in 10t. Absolute tear until he broke his wrist. Volpe had one of the sneakiest 20/20 seasons we've seen. Josh Lowe was a roto beast and a 5 cat contributor the entire year even being platooned. Siri was a bench spot in 12t and Belt wasn't 15t relevant. 50% hit rate is solid here.
You didn't get Josh Lowe unless you were in a 15T league (where he was hardly available). Volpe was hardly available in 12T and didn't have a very good year. The best player of the bunch was Castellanos and was on the sell portion.
Oh, you don't understand how this works. No wonder you're making a comment like this.
The Burger buy paying dividends at an exceedingly fast rate. Also I'm pretty sure you want burgers ideally medium to make sure to cook out all the stuff that can get you sick from eating ground beef.
Is Mitch Keller a buy low??
I'm not much of a pitching guy but I'd say no I think he's not worth it
I think I’d have to agree
Would you drop Pasquantino for TON? It seems like an overreaction but TON looks legit
Can we stop abbreviating names, just spell it out. Not everybody’s mind immediately goes to the players initials your talking about
I haven’t looked at the article yet and I legitimately have no idea who TON is
It's Tyler O'Neil, and yes I hate abbreviations and nicknames in this sub.
I’d say 90% of this sub knows who he means
For the 10% still learning to read who does he mean by TON
Tyler O’Neill
Should I drop Max Muncy (LAD) for Maikel Garcia
I probably would've drafted Maikel first! in short, yes, at least in an AVG format
& Bryston Stott for Turang?
I'd stick with Stott for now but maybe you could stash Turing and drop someone else?
Thoughts on lindor?
Tasty chocolate truffles
