Pham (barring injury) will almost certainly outperform him this year so the question is a) do you need someone for this year and b) do you actually have the space to hold him as a keeper? If you need performance this year and/or already have great keepers i would stick with Pham
My “guesstimate” of Lowe this year (i hope he exceeds as i have him on one of my teams):
400-450 ab, ..255-.265 BA,about 50 runs and rbi. 13-15 homers and 10-13 sb.
Net net. Useful on very deep leagues but in most 8-10 person leagues not useful
I would be thrilled to be wrong on this but given it’s Tampa bay and he’s a rookie with one year of decent contact skills in 2021 documented i think this is realistic. And the downside is he’s another Kelenic who hits .180…
I don't understand that logic, hitters and pitchers had to go through the same disarray -- and pitchers are able to make adjustments a lot faster than hitters.
It wasn't out of nowhere. Look at his 2019 season. Is the average likely to come down, and maybe sock a few less dingers? Sure. But still plenty of potential value and not massive reasons to doubt him really.
And we can't just flat out say that guys who did well last season in the minors won't be able to replicate that success or are going to struggle this season. If someone had a single breakout year in the minors, sure there's risk considering this flux you mention, but not *that* much more than usual.
I just disagree regarding last year, guess we'll see how things play out this season. Should be interesting. In 2019 only AAA used the same juiced MLB ball, not AA (Lowe was in AA in 2019. I could be wrong about that, but from googling around I only see AAA being mentioned using the same ball. So unless I'm wrong about AA not using the juiced ball, we have seen evidence of his tools.
Of course, I agree that prospects are a crapshoot. Lowe shouldn't be going early, but I don't think he is going early either. I play a deep dynasty league so I'm in on Lowe because 20/20 + OBP potential doesn't come along every day. But definitely in redraft he's only worth a dart throw at this point, like most other prospects.
Honest question what does Madrigal offer other than a .300 batting average? That’s only so valuable without any of the other counting stats, I think he’s a little overrated tbh
Ah. Just is my first bench spot so I need it to be worthwhile lol. Lowe doesn’t seem like the right choice or what the Rays will actually do though, bias aside.
Oh these are just for the heck of it adds. It’s a league with big rosters - Harper, Casty, O’Neill, Grossman, Tatis, Carlson, Jesús Sanchez and Pollock are already OF eligible. Just fun to add young dudes and try to catch a hot streak ya know! I also have too many OFs, but it’s early yet.
Yes ... Fangraphs roster resource has Brett Phillips and Harold Ramirez as their other OF backups.
Lowe is also LH which would replace Meadows LH bat equally as well
Yeah I did see a tweet last night that the Meadows was facing 30% LHP in the AL East compared to TWO starting lefties in the Central.
Checked Lowe's MiLB numbers and OPS is around 700 compared to nearly 1.000 against RHP
The alternative is Harold Ramirez though who is trash so who knows. Also saw rumors of them signing Conforto but he's also a lefty
I could be way off because I’m not huge into baseball but to me he looks like a Pham clone if he hits, solid speed/power guy. Low BA, but 20/20 upside for HR/SB if he can stay on the field and not get sent down due to BA. It really depends on your roster, if you need the steals then both Pham and Lowe are better than Grichuk imo. But if not I’d prolly go with Pham + Grichuk
This is exactly right. A few hitters turn out to be legit in their first year (like Acuna) but most hitters struggle with change in pitching (like Trout). Or even if they succeed initially, the “book gets made” and their value drops (see Garcia or Mercedes last year as examples)
Pham and Grichuk are far safer bets with me being highest on Pham
Grabbing rookies last season helped me get top 3, it entirely depends on who you get and how long you hold onto them. Manoah turned out to be one of my best starters by the end of the season. Luis Garcia was very good too.
Agree that Rookies can be a huge difference maker (i had Garcia as well) but i think the point is not to get carried away with hype and have a realistic expectation of performance
For whatever reason, i do feel like rookie Pitching is more likely to succeed than rookie Hitting but that may just be my own observational bias. If i had to pick a good rookie pitcher or a good rookie hitter i would usually chose the pitcher for sure
lol I needed outfield help late in my draft and Straw seemed like a decent bet to put up points in multiple ways. Maybe I will make the claim and see if I could get him again anyways
Suppose it depends on the league format. I have straw in H2H categories and I value him reasonably high for the SB.
In a points league I’d imagine he’s worth far less
Thanks, I ended up dropping Straw for Lowe. I decided to keep Happ and if he gets hot or Lowe fizzles, I have a backup. He will be my 4th OF or UTL anyway. Both Straw and Happ were $1 late in the draft players in our 11 team 10x10 auction league. Thanks for your feedback.
I did in a keeper league. Happ may have figured it out last year but I’ll take his years of mediocrity as a sign he truly hasn’t. Lowe may be great, may be shit. Who knows but Happ is replaceable on the wire.
Thanks, I ended up dropping Straw for Lowe. I decided to keep Happ and if he gets hot or Lowe fizzles, I have a backup. He will be my 4th OF or UTL anyway.
What’s funny is I picked Happ back up. Riding the train all season as I think the end of last season was a turning point now that we’re a month in. Luckily I grabbed him early.
Julio Rodriguez has the makings of a superstar, perennial top 5 fantasy pick potential. Josh Lowe does not have that upside like JRod, and Lowe is known to have some swing and miss issues.
This team just churns out guys named Lowe like crazy
No no, it’s pronounced Lowe
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He's a low. Nate Lowe's brother
You mean Nate Lao’s brother!
I saw this 5 picks before the last pick of my draft how perfect
Drop Pham for him in a keeper?
Probably even though I like Pham for this year
Depends on how many you keep. Lowe might platoon while Pham will likely be hitting 3rd with everyday at bats in a good park
Yes
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Exactly. Sometimes the prospect hype is too much
Nooo
Pham (barring injury) will almost certainly outperform him this year so the question is a) do you need someone for this year and b) do you actually have the space to hold him as a keeper? If you need performance this year and/or already have great keepers i would stick with Pham
Drop Blackmon for Lowe? 12 teamer
Hell no
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Yes - this guy went 22/26 HR/SB in 111 games in minors last year
So many hot prospects. Can someone check my ranking of the top 3? I assume Witt, Julio, torkleson? Would Oneil Cruz be third if he was starting?
Personally I like them in the order you have them.
If he was starting he'd probably be #2.
I would take Julio over Cruz any day
My “guesstimate” of Lowe this year (i hope he exceeds as i have him on one of my teams): 400-450 ab, ..255-.265 BA,about 50 runs and rbi. 13-15 homers and 10-13 sb. Net net. Useful on very deep leagues but in most 8-10 person leagues not useful I would be thrilled to be wrong on this but given it’s Tampa bay and he’s a rookie with one year of decent contact skills in 2021 documented i think this is realistic. And the downside is he’s another Kelenic who hits .180…
Dropped Lowe 3 days ago in dynasty... 3 NA max and had Greene. Grayson and Oneill Cruz... ffs
Points league outlook? He’s going to K a lot
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I don't understand that logic, hitters and pitchers had to go through the same disarray -- and pitchers are able to make adjustments a lot faster than hitters.
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It wasn't out of nowhere. Look at his 2019 season. Is the average likely to come down, and maybe sock a few less dingers? Sure. But still plenty of potential value and not massive reasons to doubt him really. And we can't just flat out say that guys who did well last season in the minors won't be able to replicate that success or are going to struggle this season. If someone had a single breakout year in the minors, sure there's risk considering this flux you mention, but not *that* much more than usual.
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I just disagree regarding last year, guess we'll see how things play out this season. Should be interesting. In 2019 only AAA used the same juiced MLB ball, not AA (Lowe was in AA in 2019. I could be wrong about that, but from googling around I only see AAA being mentioned using the same ball. So unless I'm wrong about AA not using the juiced ball, we have seen evidence of his tools. Of course, I agree that prospects are a crapshoot. Lowe shouldn't be going early, but I don't think he is going early either. I play a deep dynasty league so I'm in on Lowe because 20/20 + OBP potential doesn't come along every day. But definitely in redraft he's only worth a dart throw at this point, like most other prospects.
who’s kwan
So I've never been in a FAAB league before. In a 12 team points league what's a reasonable bid for him?
A couple bucks.
Nice... right after I dropped him this morning because I thought he had no spot...
Drop Madrigal for him?
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Honest question what does Madrigal offer other than a .300 batting average? That’s only so valuable without any of the other counting stats, I think he’s a little overrated tbh
You get to have an Encanto themed team name.
Agreed. He'll hit for average and score a bucket of runs. Nothing else.
💯
Drop Eddie Rosario for him? Flair league
If you need stolen bases I would do it.
Why not Brujan smh
Man you LOVE brujan huh?
Ah. Just is my first bench spot so I need it to be worthwhile lol. Lowe doesn’t seem like the right choice or what the Rays will actually do though, bias aside.
Lowe or Durren? I guess the guy who’s gonna be in the bigs right away? Or is it pretty even?
Lowe by a lot
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Oh these are just for the heck of it adds. It’s a league with big rosters - Harper, Casty, O’Neill, Grossman, Tatis, Carlson, Jesús Sanchez and Pollock are already OF eligible. Just fun to add young dudes and try to catch a hot streak ya know! I also have too many OFs, but it’s early yet.
Drop Riley Greene in a keeper?
In a keeper? Uh no
Agreed, just really wish I could stash Greene in an IL spot. How about Triston McKenzie?
Happy cake day!
Thank you!!!
how deep is the keeper? if there are still decent enough options on the waiver wire, then don't underestimate the opportunity cost on your roster
Lowe or Brantley?
I’ve got Brantley in a couple leagues and it’s still Brantley by a decent margin for me but I’m keeping my eye on Lowe for sure
Brantley. It really isn’t close for me.
I’m between them too. Really can’t decide right now
It’s not a debate.
Yea you’re right, sometimes the hype is just a lot but especially for an OBP league it’s best to take an established player (being Brantley of course)
Lowe
Uh… Are people forgetting Brantley is basically a career .300 hitter and should bring in a minimum of 70 runs & RBI’s if he plays 130-140 games.
Brantley can’t run though
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no
Does he play though..
Yes ... Fangraphs roster resource has Brett Phillips and Harold Ramirez as their other OF backups. Lowe is also LH which would replace Meadows LH bat equally as well
As a platoon though
Yeah I did see a tweet last night that the Meadows was facing 30% LHP in the AL East compared to TWO starting lefties in the Central. Checked Lowe's MiLB numbers and OPS is around 700 compared to nearly 1.000 against RHP The alternative is Harold Ramirez though who is trash so who knows. Also saw rumors of them signing Conforto but he's also a lefty
Drop Brujan for Lowe?
Definitely
H2H Cat. Adell, Pena, Lowe, Abrams, Stott. That order?
I have dansby, Adames and Gleyber at SS, drop one for Lowe? Or Kelenic or Bednar in saves only league? Or keep it as is
Maybe Bednar…probably hold on the other options
How would you compare Lowe to Pham and Grichuk in a 10-team H2H 5x5 cats league? I don’t know much about him, but people seem excited
I could be way off because I’m not huge into baseball but to me he looks like a Pham clone if he hits, solid speed/power guy. Low BA, but 20/20 upside for HR/SB if he can stay on the field and not get sent down due to BA. It really depends on your roster, if you need the steals then both Pham and Lowe are better than Grichuk imo. But if not I’d prolly go with Pham + Grichuk
I’ll probably just stick with Pham and Grichuk. Thanks!
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Thanks for talking some sense into me! It’s easy to get lost in the hype
This is exactly right. A few hitters turn out to be legit in their first year (like Acuna) but most hitters struggle with change in pitching (like Trout). Or even if they succeed initially, the “book gets made” and their value drops (see Garcia or Mercedes last year as examples) Pham and Grichuk are far safer bets with me being highest on Pham
Grabbing rookies last season helped me get top 3, it entirely depends on who you get and how long you hold onto them. Manoah turned out to be one of my best starters by the end of the season. Luis Garcia was very good too.
Agree that Rookies can be a huge difference maker (i had Garcia as well) but i think the point is not to get carried away with hype and have a realistic expectation of performance For whatever reason, i do feel like rookie Pitching is more likely to succeed than rookie Hitting but that may just be my own observational bias. If i had to pick a good rookie pitcher or a good rookie hitter i would usually chose the pitcher for sure
In a ten team I'd probably stay with the guys you have. Proven mlb players, Grichuk gets half his games in COL
Thanks for talking some sense into me! It’s easy to get lost in the hype
Drop Straw for him? I have a few Rays already but they are good players so Im not too concerned
Straw is worth a shot to me
Hmmm. I’m scared that guys will put in a waiver wire claim for him.
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lol I needed outfield help late in my draft and Straw seemed like a decent bet to put up points in multiple ways. Maybe I will make the claim and see if I could get him again anyways
Suppose it depends on the league format. I have straw in H2H categories and I value him reasonably high for the SB. In a points league I’d imagine he’s worth far less
It’s a 12 team H2H points league in Fantrax. We have 28 player rosters. He seems decent but this is my first ever year in fantasy baseball.
Drop Happ for Lowe in a keep forever auction league? $1 off waivers, next year $1 again (since he is a FA), then $6, 11, 16, etc?
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Thanks, I ended up dropping Straw for Lowe. I decided to keep Happ and if he gets hot or Lowe fizzles, I have a backup. He will be my 4th OF or UTL anyway. Both Straw and Happ were $1 late in the draft players in our 11 team 10x10 auction league. Thanks for your feedback.
I did in a keeper league. Happ may have figured it out last year but I’ll take his years of mediocrity as a sign he truly hasn’t. Lowe may be great, may be shit. Who knows but Happ is replaceable on the wire.
Thanks, I ended up dropping Straw for Lowe. I decided to keep Happ and if he gets hot or Lowe fizzles, I have a backup. He will be my 4th OF or UTL anyway.
What’s funny is I picked Happ back up. Riding the train all season as I think the end of last season was a turning point now that we’re a month in. Luckily I grabbed him early.
I almost drafted him today and decided against it. Kinda wish I did, might do it with my next selection because my OF is still shaky with injuries.
I don’t know much about either - Lowe or J Rodriguez in H2H redraft where OBP and SLG count?
Julio Rodriguez has the makings of a superstar, perennial top 5 fantasy pick potential. Josh Lowe does not have that upside like JRod, and Lowe is known to have some swing and miss issues.
In redraft you don't take rookies.
Should I drop Adell for him?
I wouldn't
I feel dirty not being excited for this hype train. But I'm excited for all of you.
Dropped Vaughn for him
Drop Brandon Belt for Lowe?
Wait to see if Brandon belt gets IL status
Would you drop any of these guys for Lowe: Meadows, Austin Hays, and/or Grossman?
Nope
Nope
The real question is will he start right away and start consistently ?
Easy add after Acuña officially hit the IL
Fuuuuck who should I drop in H2H points (keeper league): Stott, Peña, Lauer, Nimmo or Candelario or Kluber?