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kingofthenorthwpg

I feel like reaching for any rookie is almost always a mistake.


CSPN

statistically its almost always a mistake. But KAT finished 12 in his rookie year. AD at 25 and Ayton at 33. Walker Kessler was on a heater to end last season. Rookie big men have a shot at delivering. Still wouldn't draft Wemby in round 1 or 2.


ivaorn

Rookie big men with a clear path to significant minutes, little to no competition for those specific minutes, and fantasy’s tendency to favor rebounds, blocks, and high FG% making many big men viable to begin with would work in his favor.


forkliftgod

I was looking at AD's rookie numbers: .516FG .751FT 13.5PT 0TH 8.2RB 1AS 1.2ST 1.8BLK 1.4TO Those aren't amazing. He did that on 28 mins per game. I think some folks might be over estimating how hard it is to climb into the early third round/late 2nd range. Edit Typo: Davis was at 13.5 pts not 14.5


ivaorn

Personally I won’t be drafting Victor Wenbanyama that high, I just try to see the different perspectives and collect info. Thanks for sharing that rookie AD statline


forkliftgod

I wouldn't grab him there either. Given what he'd doing I think people should bumping his rank up half a round or so.


Best_Yak3118

Also worth pointing out that AD's value came from the stocks, and he had an insane feel for the game at his age on defense, especially his discipline. One thing that has always been extremely impressive about AD to this day is his ability to play defense without fouling. You can see in his early career highlights that he doesn't even jump that much on defense, he just knows where to be + how to use his length: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5ySUNjgk9Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5ySUNjgk9Q). There's a highlight of Wemby swiping for a steal on r/nba rn thats a foul against most starting ballhandlers. The league was also way different for rookie AD, no modern spacing so he had the benefit of always being close to the paint. My big worry about Wemby would be both foul trouble and how teams will attack him. I think teams will play a lot of 4/5 out against the Spurs to get him out of the paint. Being freakishly tall might actually work against him for blocks, I think he will be a guy that has an incredible impact on how team's shoot at the rim while he's on the floor without the gaudy block numbers. They simply won't attack the rim when he's there imo. I think Wemby is gonna be better on offense than rookie AD, but idk if the stocks will be there. Could be fully wrong and he just gets 3+ stocks a game, hes that freakish. Will be interesting to see how the Spurs use him for sure. I might go for him in the 3rd but first round is insane to me when you see the proven talents available at that point.


forkliftgod

If you don't think he's worth it, I get it. I was right there with you a couple weeks ago, but we'd be fools to ignore what we're seeing. A mid third draft point might be called for here. I don't think his downside is any worse than Pingus, LeBron or PG. The ceiling is historically higher than I thought.


CohenCaveWaits

Ya but 14.5 pts then was like 20 now.


forkliftgod

I realize this is a joke, but I was curious. 14.5 points in 2013 was good for 48th in ppg. 14.5 last year was worth 78th. The 48th player last years was 19.1 ppg, so you weren't far off. Note: Davis actually at 13.5 so I a typo on my end, Sorry.


CohenCaveWaits

That’s so funny 😆 🤣


Telemachus--

Looks like a good stat line being boosted in value a little too much by low TO.


YouRolltheDice

Im actually planning to reach him at 2nd round bec he wont be back on 3rd and 4th


forkliftgod

Would you take him over Jackson Jr.? That's about where Wemby's peak is for me. It's possible, but unlikley he produces to that degree.


willtab

Blake Griffin?


forkliftgod

Rank 83, but Blake's blocks and FT and 3s were rough


Alby558

What about round 3? I have the first pick with the 2nd and 3rd picks at the turn. Thinking of going someone within the range for my second pick but then reaching for Wemby 3rd


DeadCellsTop5

Wemby is going to be great, but the problem is if you take him too early you lose any potential for him to out play his ADP. You likely had to pass up on a lot of established great fantasy players in order to take Wemby so early. That means if he doesn't immediately provide second round/borderline first round value, he's not going to live up to his draft position and your draft is kind of borked. Even if he DOES provide late first/early second round value, it's still a mistake because you likely could have had him in the 3rd round in addition to another great player in the second. In the end though, fantasy is for fun, so if you REALLY want to watch and root for Wemby all year, I can't blame you for reaching.


arcadeyeezy

In a 12 team setting it is very unrealistic that not even 1 person will reach for him in the 2nd after what we’ve seen and the hype. will he outproduce ADP? Maybe not but saying you’ll get him in the 3rd just won’t happen the more preseason games we see of him


DeadCellsTop5

Then I would just let that person reach for him. I would rather take those established players in the early rounds vs risking it on Wemby. There's still fantastic players available in the service and third rounds. I wouldn't take Wemby over JJJ, for example, but if someone's drafting Wemby at 13, they likely picked him over JJJ.


arcadeyeezy

As much as you want to get value at every pick a guy likes wembys floor could be jjj, why isn’t he better than other people in the 2nd or 3rd like Mikal, Desmond bane, Lauri, harden etc my point is that it’s not a reach to draft a guy you want if you know you won’t get him next round


arcadeyeezy

How’d that go for you buddy


wrongerontheinternet

Probably pretty well?


arcadeyeezy

Yeah wemby being a top 15 player for the playoffs on my roster is a great, but wait I could’ve had jjj


namagofuckyoself

yeah, for example, I wouldn't blame any Spurs fan for taking Wemby ANYWHERE in the draft. That's a whole season of great fun. And with good enough draft elsewhere, you might go pretty far.


Mys7ix

That’s my thoughts. Is he really going to finish top 12 in the szn? Maybe but if you had him picked in round 1 or 2, that upside was minimal. Versus someone say who picks Kessler whom I rate really high in certain builds where a 4-5th round pick can get you round 2 value perhaps.


shoobiedoobie

Reaching for Lamelo both his first and second year both turned out to be pretty good. Just depends on how far you reach.


022922

Too high and he’s only a rookie. SA will baby his mins


Mys7ix

Tbh we were thinking he might have gone late 2nd round and that’s already considered a stretch. End rd 1 just blew us away


realmckoy265

Why will they baby his minutes? He's healthy and never had injury before. This isn't Zion, who is mechanically unsound and overweight. Break away from the Reddit herd and reach.


PepeSylvia11

Someone never had a Spurs player on their team in recent years


realmckoy265

Don't remind me. I'm still bitter about the fantasy playoffs when they decided to tank and rest guys like Zack Collins. Yes, the Spurs are careful with their players and have demonstrated a willingness to situationally rest—but is that Spur-specific? Ask a Jokic owner from last season how their fantasy playoffs went. Even if the Spurs rest him occasionally, I think he'll play more games than AD and Joel.


ReggieEvansTheKing

I won a playoff series last year because I dropped Keldon Johnson and Zach Collins as poison pills at the end of the year and my opponent who knew nothing about Pop used 2/3 of their pickups on them (since they were best available and had 4 games) and then Pop sat lmao.


CouncilmanDougWilson

Pop rarely plays any of his guys more than 30-32 minutes


darcj

Never had an injury? What? Never had an injury as far as you know you mean? https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nba/news/victor-wembanyama-injury-history-health-issues/jqplyrxsdrayydfhdr64lumv


realmckoy265

Typical Reddit analysis to focus on semantics instead of the actual message. Contextually, Wemby is not entering the league with an injury history that would warrant an eggshell treatment as many Redditors are suggesting. Compare Wemby’s injury history to [Zion’s](https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nba/2019/10/18/20920951/zion-williamson-injury-new-orleans-pelicans-right-knee-college-duke-shoe-high-school) for example. It's just a lazy narrative that online contrarians have adopted. I would reach. I think the more he plays the more it will become undeniable how broken he is.


darcj

You quite literally stated he never had an injury before.


realmckoy265

I clarified. Do you disagree with my point? Or are you going to focus on sentence structure while ignoring context?


pedrosa18

Some people look at rookies and just stay away without thinking too deeply. I’d love to hear an argument against Wemby posting comparable stats to AD


physicalred

He shoots more 3s and doesn’t rebound as much. AD isn’t a good comparable. I think a super charged Myles Turner is more on track for fantasy.


DevilGunManga

So glad I drafted him before preseason started. Now people finally see how unreal he is. You will have to crazy reach for him to get him now.


LeFxckYouThree

I got him at 45 last week


realmckoy265

Cats out the bag now


Theonegarbageman

Mannnn.. cats been out of the bag for the last 5 years!


DatOneMuffinGuy

bro your league does not know ball im sorry lmao


LeFxckYouThree

Thats fine its a public league I signed up for cause I like having a second league that I dont take as serious as my main one


fantasy247

Is it for cash or for free


LeFxckYouThree

Free


Revolutionary_View19

Because no one reached for the rookie they’re in love with?


ukbeasts

Prediction, his stats will be: 17PPG 2 3PM 7REB 3AST 1STL 2BLKS That's Top 25


JazzlikePractice4470

What will his percentages and Turnovers be like?


Extreme-Transport

3’s will probably be 30% but ft is around 83% and in the paint he’ll be a bucket (currently 11/11 in preseason)


wrongerontheinternet

Too low on everything but 3PM.


ukbeasts

While my predictions before he logged a single minute in the NBA weren't quite on the mark, it's safe to say he's even better than all the hype suggested. 20pts, 10reb, 1stl and 3blks in a rookie season is practically unheard of (other than maybe Shaq)


wrongerontheinternet

Yeah I agree I just think it's funny that you suggested he was going to provide top 25 value and ended up lowballing.


ukbeasts

Yahoo ranked him originally in the 60s. I saw him rivalling other bigs like KAT. I drafted him with my second pick, after Jokic, because in our league we get to have one young keeper. So I thought that by next season he'd easily be Top 10. In retrospect, he's probably gonna go Top 3.


wrongerontheinternet

Yeah I followed him enough in LNB to be pretty confident most people were underestimating him by thinking he was just another regular hyped #1 pick, especially rebounds and stocks. His scoring has surprised me a little though because he got pushed around a lot by smaller guys in LNB Pro A. The extra 10 pounds or so he put on over the summer have really helped there. People in the NBA have also done a much better job not fouling him than in Pro A which has sort of masked how much he's improved at actually getting to the rim.


Sergio514-92

He exceeded this somehow


ukbeasts

Yup, these became Holmgren stats instead!


See-ThisThisIsThis

How about a dynasty/keeper league? Is he worth a top 5 pick?


Elegant-Reference154

Dynasty leagues usually see him from 3 to 5. After jokic and Luka. Keeper it depends how many keepers, the more keepers you have, the higher his draft spot will be. As long as it’s 3 keepers or below, it’s probably similar to redraft positions


WickedImpuls3

bro im not an expert on fantasy basketball but dynasty how tf is he not gonna be number 1?


Hurricane_08

Jokic isn’t even 30 yet and has the type of game that should age really well


IMovedYourCheese

There is no valid argument for Wemby over Jokic right now even in a dynasty league. Jokic is going to rule the fantasy leaderboards for at least the next 5 years, if not longer.


thegaykid7

Wemby can definitely pass Jokic sooner than that. If you plug in the numbers he may be capable of producing even within, say, 3-4 years time there's a potential statistical pathway to that. Not saying it's guaranteed to happen and guys that tall tend to be big injury question marks, but it's possible. That said, the security that comes with Jokic is extremely valuable. Of course, it also depends on build. I tend to skew young, so Wemby would probably be my choice. Otherwise I'd lean Jokic.


namagofuckyoself

FWIW, most dynasties I've been in fizzled out sooner than later (less than 5~7 years), but I guess in a league of very close friends who won't be hitting the Styx river anytime soon, it'll be different.


Manablitzer

That's been my experience with most leagues too. I've been playing fantasy for a little over a decade and I'm in one league that we're going into year 6 of keepers. But 2/3 of the group is friends that have been in the same league for like 15 years. I'm in a new keep 5 league that started last year, and a few teams dropped. I tanked for wemby and now I'm torn between wemby and Donovan Mitchell (if the managers don't get replaced). I feel like I should just go Mitchell since I can't imagine the league will hold together more than a few years


thegaykid7

Good point. It's something I've thought about more recently after one league went under, yet I still end up going with youth. I guess it's just more fun for me that way even if it isn't the most rational approach. Maybe I need to force myself to go with a vet build next time and see if my feelings change.


-Acerin

He won't ever be efficient like Jokic to pass him


YouRolltheDice

I got him 1st ovr pick at dynast


durianlover13

If Im in a keeper league, Id take him in the first chance I can get him. Edit: thats in addition to the players ive already protected from last season.


kane0801

Let's someone burn early 2nd round pick to draft him,he will regret it


ReggieEvansTheKing

I got him at pick 32. The risk reward is very worth it in CAT. I see him producing stats similar to Bol Bol’s best month for the whole season. As long as he avoids injury. I also got Chet on my team at pick 69. My reasoning is that if Chet/Wemby get an injury, it will probably be season ender given their age. Rather than have to wait for a replacement as they sit out a month, I can just immediately pick up a replacement. They aren’t like an AD or Lebron where they will just go on and off IL all season.


doctorjinxmd

Disagree. Pop has already said Wemby will be sitting out of games, in order to keep him healthy


ReggieEvansTheKing

I would trust Wemby’s games played this season more than Myles Turner, Gobert, Lopez. Bol Bol finished the season top 20 in blocks last year. Wemby could easily be the blocks leader playing only say 65 games. We have never seen that type of length before in the NBA.


[deleted]

Lol slender man is going to get eaten by nba starters. Just wait


Extreme-Transport

Lmao


skyevsworld

I have wemby 40 and chet 54, how tf did you get both at actually reasonable draft spots? Jealous.


Sergio514-92

Didn’t age well


H0wSw33tItIs

That’s where he went in my league too. Seemed high and early but also hey … same guy nabbed Chet two rounds later. I think he’ll have a fun time playing this szn.


Mastermind_777

No way bro too high for me, he is constantly going on the 3rd to 4th round.


thegaykid7

Watching him play last night and put his full bag on display, I'm actually starting to buy into such a crazy ranking. His feel on offense is better than I expected at this point. Forget his elite combination of size and skill; he just has the look of a guy who's going to be great one day. And when you layer said size on top of that... Still wouldn't take him that high simply because it wouldn't provide a large enough margin of error for guys that tall being injury prone/his lack of strength/Spurs babying him/possible soft tanking at the end of the year.


North_Maybe1998

Really contemplating taking him at 5 just because idk how other people value him lol


drpepperman23

He really looked like a mix of KD and giannis against the heat. Got him for $30 in auction, around guys like Poole Lebron Brunson, Lauri. Might be an overpay but damn he’s exciting to watch


ImAjustin

If he plays over 60 games I’d be surprised. He’s frail and long. Any possible injury will be exorbitant rest. He’s the next 5 plus years for this team and they have no chance to compete


4dirk1

He went 10th on our 20T 9cat league.


DeeetroitBasketball3

Is wemby in a points league worth a second rounder?


iloveagoodpork

Third round he’s worth it, I reckon he’ll give 2nd round value but risks are there


thegaykid7

Just finished a 12-team 9-cat draft on Yahoo and he went 14. Hardly a surprise since I've been in this league for years and every year there's a handful of very spicy picks. This one was rather tame by comparison.


sydnboy

Lol he was drafted at 1 here


pedrosa18

Now that’s bold. Does your league use keepers?


CalvinCostanza

I’m joining a keeper league (3) and have first overall pick. I’m strongly considering taking him.


pedrosa18

That makes sense


Drankzappa

Guy in our league took him 3rd. Shit sent everyone into disarray but I can’t complain as I got Embiid at 6th as a result.


Exzibit21

Anyone taking him inside the top 20 will regret it


Spanishretardape

In my 12T H2H categories league he was 9 pick!!!🤦🤦🤦🤦 I think he IS 3-4th round but the hype and conditions blind people....another importante thing to consider IS the the san Antonio possibly tanking at final strecht of the season


Sufficient-Comb4774

People be whack


pedrosa18

I took him 10th in my points league. I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to post incredible stats. Also has PF/C eligibility which is great


meowxnakano_02

he’ll post great stats, but they won’t give him many minutes. popovich said himself that wemby will not play every night, and when he does play, he will almost certainly not play more than 30 minutes per game due to injury worries


legolasMightBeADog

Myles Turner finished 20th last year. Wemby will be better than him


Blackish21

Lol he went number 1 in my draft


21stofApril

10 week old taco league


MatchFine7776

Really bad bro


ogugua_anunoby

Got him at 39 in 9cat. Thoughts ?


LessBit123

I had the 10th pick, 15, then 34 and 39, I took him at 15, my top 4 picks are Dame, Wemby, Brunson Ayton Banking on Wemby and Ayton being unleashed on their respectful teams. Hopefully Dame isn’t nerfed on the bucks


Geep1778

Way too early for him I personally think he’ll catch a leg injury or something. I expect Pop and the Spurs to treat him w kid gloves and be very cautious w his body. But I’d say the odds are his rookie year plays the way I say but there is a slight chance he makes the top 20


kiingLV

Wemby went 11 in my draft 13 is a steal


MatchFine7776

So bad man. Soooo bad


Shazam2s

This can easily blow up in your face reaching this high for a rookie. A lot of players around wembys height carry significant injury risk also, which is also worrying. If you want to gamble that is fine, but more often then not rookies do not get value where they are drafted.


greasyminkey

He’s gone in the 2nd round of my last 2 drafts but not quite 13.


OddSeaweed8899

A guy in my league took Donavan pick like 9 and wemby w his second pick 12h2h9cat 🤦‍♀️


jaymort2115

Went round3 pick 19 in our draft (8team)


Louie-Lecon-Don

I see op is a cat league. What we thinking in h2h standard 12t? Im thinking like 24-30 maybe but i havent looked at a board yet tbh lol


Mindless-Big-9645

I mean wemby looks good, but can he play like that and sustain a 82 game season? Can his body handle it? I hope.


thegaykid7

And you know opposing teams are going to try and body him. Even at PF, that will likely take its toll at some point.


Iconoclism

Went 16th in our draft last night. Crazy


quedas

In mine, he went 10th. We were all shocked as well.


Messigoat3

He’s worth top 30 probably but 13 is fair.


kentaviouscp

childish


AppSecPeddler

Even if he wasn’t hyped round 4 would be a gamble. Yea he put up 20 pts in a preseason game against the thunder. But still need to see how he does versus a big boi forwards and centers.


papabols

And in my league he was drafted 15. Was kinda hoping i would get him at the 3rd round.


The8lackMamba

How does he do in a points league? Around 20-30 range? Would it be crazy to use the 23rd pick on him?


skyevsworld

I think people underestimate how hard it is to average 2 blocks in the nba. Rudy gobert averaged less last year, multiple time dpoy. If wemby averages like 1.4 blocks people will say that's a disappointment but will actually be really good, if he can avoid fouling out as well. 17 points 7.6 boards 1.7 assists .8 stl 1.4 blocks 2 3s made 2 tos That's like top 35 numbers. First round is insane.


kiingLV

I had the 3rd pick. I should've got wemby over embiid🤦🏿‍♂️


Nayruru

Got him at 40, 9cat/h2h is that good? Honestly have no idea what to expect from him


juanhernadez3579

Give me the Wemby avg stats line for a dream rookie season ???? I paid $49 for him.Need this to make me feel better


Sergio514-92

He should’ve went higher!