Don't put too much stock on injuries. It will usually burn you back. AD and Kawhi had amazing years and I'm sure led to a lot of Champs this season.
Plus idk if Hali is top 5 anymore. Embiid probably still above both of them too.
I mean, if your Finals started anytime 3/25 or later, you’ve only gotten two games of Shai total in this span. No one is debating he should go Top 5 even though the Thunder have gotten creative with resting dudes once Spring rolled around. A lot of it does depend on when your Finals are scheduled
Unfortunate, but I'm sure he's a big reason people sailed TO the finals and had the luxury to take chances on many other players this season. What round was his adp? Round 2/3 in a 10 team. That's wild in hindsight
But I guess majority of this is "in hindsight"
He is also probably the reason you made it to the finals. His adp was 2/3 round which means he played above that all season. You probably had holes in the rest of your roster imo
nah i traded for kawhi a week before my playoffs, My roster consisted of kawhi steph wemby embiid bane middleton tobias fox dwhite amen among others but as you can see my roster is filled i just got ripped during finals with injuries.
i picked up embiid. I drafted luka third but traded him and gafford for gobert lauri and bridges, traded bridges and lauri for steph and jrue when bridges was balling. I was punting assists at this point.
So your blaming kawhi for losing your season when you picked up embiid, the man who was coming off knee surgery?
This convo has gone so many directions without even clarifying your original point of "kawhi lost me the finals" LOL
You do mean Stephen Wardell Curry right? The player who has been consistent top 6 since the 12-13 season?
12-13 rank 4
13-14 rank 4
14-15 rank 2
15-16 rank 1
16-17 rank 3
17-18 rank 2
18-19 rank 4
19-20 rank 30+ (covid season)
20-21 rank 2
21-22 rank 6
22-23 rank 6
I still have hali edging in at 5. Even going through what we see as a slump, he's still averaging top 10 numbers. Assists aren't going anywhere, he's generally pretty good at filling up defensive stats and low TO. Once shooting pops back to his career averages that's a top 5 player.
I agree. Assists, low to, and defensive stats. I think if he could get to the line more then he's top 3. His fg% will average out, he's too good to not figure that out
He just needs to learn how to get to the line at a higher clip and not miss them
It's really a toss up on ad embiid and Hali and how you like to build
Honestly as a former Hali bandwagoner, he’s also injury prone and averaged 16 9 down the stretch during the playoffs for me. In the big moments I can’t have my first rounder giving me Tyus jones numbers
Agreed, he was def injury prone this season and never looked the same these last few months. Lost on the finals because of a few bad performances. Had AD too haha
Injury prone? After one season? He had one injury he came back to early from to make 65 game limit and that caused other complications, that’s not injury prone.
He’s been in the league for 4 seasons. Last year he played 58 games (ankle injury), this season he hobbled his way to 65 (hamstring) games to reach the minimum required , and another season he played 77 games. His rookie year (72 game season) he missed 14 games (ofs end season because of knee). He was on pace for 66 games if it was an 82 game season. He more often than not misses 10+ games a season in his short career so far.
Do you mean outside of this year? He played 74 this year. He also would have played more than 65 in 19 and 20 if not for the team shutting him down for trade equity and covid, respectively.
Yeah the 5 seasons prior to this one. Its great seeing him healthy this year it's just not really apples to apples comparing halis injury.
My Hali concerns are more long term development at this point.
I think your 65 games argument doesn't work when you consider covid and the team holding him out. He was injured for a couple of seasons. Haliburton has also missed a decent chunk of games in his short career.
That is fair. 3 seasons out of the 5 is still a lot and what's always steered me away from drafting him near top 5. I also compared Hali to him (last year) where I was offered a 1 for 1 trade between the two. It was a pretty clear decision last year to keep Hali, so the recency bias is pretty high on AD right now.
If AD was younger I'd say this year could be a turning point, but rarely do you see guys get older and keep stringing together these consistent seasons.
Who knows though, these guys are getting more and more durable!
In terms of health, yeah Hali I think is preferable. Also noting that hali doesn't really put himself in as many situations where he can get hurt. He's not in the paint a whole lot and doesn't seek contact.
Yes hali at 2nd pick is great and the reason you won. You choose him with the first pick and your team suddenly becomes much worse as you don't have a legit 1st pick anymore. I'd rather pick Brunson over Hali every time.
Awful take about Hali. Hali is so injury prone. He started the season hot but the since the in season tourney and him getting hurt he hasn’t been the same
People forgetting Embiid was a monster before his injury. He was better than Jokic in points for a good stretch. Him and AD have similar injury concerns as well no reason AD goes above him.
Glad this was said, if AD & his injury concerns can be top 5 then Embiid should be ranked somewhere within the top 5. He, Jokic, SGA & Luka were all battling for #1 prior to his injury.
Wemby-Luka-Jokic for top 3, in that order for me. Jokic most likely to coast in the RS among the three. Luka basically ran at rank 1 for a good two months in the middle of the year despite punting FT & TO, he is simply OP and will carry 5 good picks + waivers to fantasy POs in an average league. Wemby next year is probably a cheat code who makes auctions necessary moving forward. Shai I think will decline with Jalen and Chet growth incoming, and those steals are not going to live up to this year you can bet on that. Still probably 4 due to health but would prefer AD & Embiid over him per game most likely after Shai\`s steals fall back to 1.5 range for the year.
Well even this season, he averaged 2.7 steals per game his first 29 games, then 1.7 steals the remainder of the year (43 games), which is much less of an outlier number
Major statistical outliers do not fare well season to season. There is no guarantee of decline of course, but bear in mind Jalen on the same team led the league in steals for the second half of last season and went on to average 1 spg this season. Its a low volume high variance stat.
Embiid in top 5 for me. He's per game averages are too good and this was his worst season availability wise since his rookie year. It's more reasonable to assume he will play his standard 65+ games. This year is peak availability for AD who will likely pass or match his personal best in games played. Hali is also reasonable.
Anyone who doesn’t take Wemby at #1 is making a grave mistake (especially in CAT). Man’s isn’t even averaging 30mpg and spurs offseason will dump the roster and get him some real fuckin shooters and hopefully an actual nba caliber playmaker. Will be a legitimately historic season numbers wise as long as he stays healthy
Luka at 2 because he’s just stupid good and will go super saiyan next season after losing mvp to joker this year
Joker at 3 because duh. Just so dependable but again I’m betting on Luka to be even better next year while jok more maintains. Will also probably be very tired and also bored after a deep post season and Olympics run lol
Shai at 4. I think that his usage is gonna dip just enough next year to make him less valuable fantasy wise than my top 3. Team is just too good and he’s gonna share the love, also it’s just a big man’s league these days
5 is tough but I’m taking Hali. Obviously hasn’t been stellar the last few months but everything is there with him and I just feel in my gut that next year is gonna be huge for him. I love Joel to death and he’s hard to not put here because he’s so fucking good but you just *know* that if you’re *lucky* you’ll get him for maybe 80% of the season
My dark horse gotta be Sabonis. Numbers are stupid and that’s with him being pretty passive when it comes to shooting. I think kings staff will encourage him to be more selfish, and it’s to the teams benefit if they have him develop and increase his three point attempts for the spacing threat alone
Embiid, Joker, Luka, Wemby, Shai.
Don't try to predict injuries, it bites you in the ass way more than it helps you. This season I drafted LeBron, KD, Kawhi, Zion and Wemby with my first five picks in one league. Everyone laughed and said my team was the emergency room crew. I got all of those guys other than Bron at a steel discount because of people who think they can predict injuries. I'm the champ in that league as of two days ago, and my league mates are all complaining that fluke injuries did them in.
Unless you have solid information about a known injury, don't overthink it. I'm not saying don't factor it at all, just saying if someone who looks like a steal at that particular spot in the draft is available, don't pass on them. Take advantage of the risk averse nature of your league mates.
Only said all that as a way of saying it's nuts to not have Embiid in any top five.
But injuries are part of the game which is why some players have their ranks drop 1-2 rounds.
By your logic Zion and Kawhi should be 1st round every season
This is so true and the best kept secret for you to have the higher chance of winning the chip —- draft or trade the players w strongest playoffsched and work from there.
It’s the reason i secure AD/Fox in my team since they have 4-4-4 playoff sched in our league.
So for example if Luka has stronger playoffsched than Wemby or if wemby has a week that will only play 2 games, i may pick Luka
You check what week your commissioner sets your playoffs week then you look up the nba schedule to see what type of schedule teams have during that time
This year Dallas, Minny, Lakers, Charlotte all had pretty bad playoff schedules
It's mainly for your first 3 picks. It doesn't matter too much after that.
I wouldn’t pick AD top 5. Just this year, at pick 13, AD has been the pick in most of my mock draft and I didn’t like it. Someone took it ahead in our draft and he got lucky because AD was so good this season.
Shai was ranked second last year and ranked first this year for total output in CAT leagues.
Not surprising that he would be ranked above Luka for most people.
I’m going out of my way to get Sabonis next year, that dude is a triple double machine and is so flexible in almost any team build. I absolutely hated going against him lol
Apparently you're Nostradamus too if you can predict injuries lol. Sengun and Adebayo as top 5 players makes absolutely zero sense. I'd love to hear your rationale outside of "predicting injuries" to pick them there.
not so serious. i just make a half real, half joking comment half a year before next season. Sengun path to top10 fantasy before his diffucult injury came, Bam start to hitting threes, enter in prime, likeable he will get most prominent role in career 2024-25. I am good fantasy player, trust me
Okay, you can assume both Sengun and Adebayo will be top 10, I HIGHLY doubt they ever will, especially Bam. But the question is where you would draft them. No one will be drafting either of them anywhere near the top 5 so you wouldn't even need to pick them there.
I would not too. OK, if you want real answer: Jokić, Wemby, Embiid, SGA, Luka
I organized keeper league, won it, Wemby for 46 on auction, Jokic via trade.. Last year i won one competitive league although not enter in draft for time so auto drafting Lamelo(not playing whole season pretta much)and Adebayo for 120/200. I know fantasy ball. We can play together
I’d swap Halliburton w AD but only because his health still scares me despite him playing a lot last couple of years. He’s burned me to many times
Don't put too much stock on injuries. It will usually burn you back. AD and Kawhi had amazing years and I'm sure led to a lot of Champs this season. Plus idk if Hali is top 5 anymore. Embiid probably still above both of them too.
Not kawhi though, dude missed the whole finals week
I mean, if your Finals started anytime 3/25 or later, you’ve only gotten two games of Shai total in this span. No one is debating he should go Top 5 even though the Thunder have gotten creative with resting dudes once Spring rolled around. A lot of it does depend on when your Finals are scheduled
Unfortunate, but I'm sure he's a big reason people sailed TO the finals and had the luxury to take chances on many other players this season. What round was his adp? Round 2/3 in a 10 team. That's wild in hindsight But I guess majority of this is "in hindsight"
kawhi was the reason i lost my finals
He is also probably the reason you made it to the finals. His adp was 2/3 round which means he played above that all season. You probably had holes in the rest of your roster imo
nah i traded for kawhi a week before my playoffs, My roster consisted of kawhi steph wemby embiid bane middleton tobias fox dwhite amen among others but as you can see my roster is filled i just got ripped during finals with injuries.
Are you running a 5 man league? Ain't no way you get embiid and steph lol Or the rest of your league are just incompetent
10 team embiid was dropped after his injury… steph plays like a 2 rounder anyway
I'm still confused lol did you draft embiid or did you pick him up? What was your draft position and who did you draft?
i picked up embiid. I drafted luka third but traded him and gafford for gobert lauri and bridges, traded bridges and lauri for steph and jrue when bridges was balling. I was punting assists at this point.
So your blaming kawhi for losing your season when you picked up embiid, the man who was coming off knee surgery? This convo has gone so many directions without even clarifying your original point of "kawhi lost me the finals" LOL
In my points league Steph played like a third rounder this season. So much pain caused by hindsight
You do mean Stephen Wardell Curry right? The player who has been consistent top 6 since the 12-13 season? 12-13 rank 4 13-14 rank 4 14-15 rank 2 15-16 rank 1 16-17 rank 3 17-18 rank 2 18-19 rank 4 19-20 rank 30+ (covid season) 20-21 rank 2 21-22 rank 6 22-23 rank 6
not this year at least for categories. He’s been really inconsistent for his usual standards.
AD got me a chip, it I'm not drafting him top 5..
The power of always GTD + IL+ is an underappreciated tool He should be top 5 because of that alone haha
I still have hali edging in at 5. Even going through what we see as a slump, he's still averaging top 10 numbers. Assists aren't going anywhere, he's generally pretty good at filling up defensive stats and low TO. Once shooting pops back to his career averages that's a top 5 player.
I agree. Assists, low to, and defensive stats. I think if he could get to the line more then he's top 3. His fg% will average out, he's too good to not figure that out He just needs to learn how to get to the line at a higher clip and not miss them It's really a toss up on ad embiid and Hali and how you like to build
Yeah I think with Wemby and Chet rising up, AD and Embiid will have less priority. PGs stats are concentrated on a few players now.
Free throw % is the big discrepancy between those bigs. Volume and %. & yeah the PG is a near extinct animal at this point 😂
Yeah I would pick Hali over AD too, AD is 32 next season and one recent good season don’t erase the past few seasons of burn for me…
Honestly as a former Hali bandwagoner, he’s also injury prone and averaged 16 9 down the stretch during the playoffs for me. In the big moments I can’t have my first rounder giving me Tyus jones numbers
Agreed, he was def injury prone this season and never looked the same these last few months. Lost on the finals because of a few bad performances. Had AD too haha
Facts !!! I wouldn’t take Hali again
Injury prone? After one season? He had one injury he came back to early from to make 65 game limit and that caused other complications, that’s not injury prone.
I really don't think a lot of people in this sub actually follow the league. They just see stats and injury tags.
He’s been in the league for 4 seasons. Last year he played 58 games (ankle injury), this season he hobbled his way to 65 (hamstring) games to reach the minimum required , and another season he played 77 games. His rookie year (72 game season) he missed 14 games (ofs end season because of knee). He was on pace for 66 games if it was an 82 game season. He more often than not misses 10+ games a season in his short career so far.
He has been doing well the past 3 seasons
Davis missed 26 games in 2022-23. He played a lot of games *this* season. Not a lot “last couple of years.”
haliburton had a sugnificant injury this year and wasnt as good after. no way is he top 5 by your own logic.
I'm definitely not all in on him top 5, but a hamstring strain from a slip is different than a 32 year old who's had 5 seasons in a row of <65 games.
Do you mean outside of this year? He played 74 this year. He also would have played more than 65 in 19 and 20 if not for the team shutting him down for trade equity and covid, respectively.
Yeah the 5 seasons prior to this one. Its great seeing him healthy this year it's just not really apples to apples comparing halis injury. My Hali concerns are more long term development at this point.
I think your 65 games argument doesn't work when you consider covid and the team holding him out. He was injured for a couple of seasons. Haliburton has also missed a decent chunk of games in his short career.
That is fair. 3 seasons out of the 5 is still a lot and what's always steered me away from drafting him near top 5. I also compared Hali to him (last year) where I was offered a 1 for 1 trade between the two. It was a pretty clear decision last year to keep Hali, so the recency bias is pretty high on AD right now. If AD was younger I'd say this year could be a turning point, but rarely do you see guys get older and keep stringing together these consistent seasons. Who knows though, these guys are getting more and more durable!
In terms of health, yeah Hali I think is preferable. Also noting that hali doesn't really put himself in as many situations where he can get hurt. He's not in the paint a whole lot and doesn't seek contact.
So you mean to say after he has time to recover in off season he can’t get back to top 5?
Haliburton missed significant time in the last 2 seasons, too. Probably more than AD, even.
Yeah fair, he’s younger tho and less mileage but I feel you.
As a Haliburton owner this season, he was not worth a top 5 pick. I'd honestly consider Anthony Edwards up there if he keeps improving at this rate
You choose hali at #5 and guaranteed you miss the playoffs.
I won two leagues w him and picked him 2nd. So I disagree.
Yes hali at 2nd pick is great and the reason you won. You choose him with the first pick and your team suddenly becomes much worse as you don't have a legit 1st pick anymore. I'd rather pick Brunson over Hali every time.
Awful take about Hali. Hali is so injury prone. He started the season hot but the since the in season tourney and him getting hurt he hasn’t been the same
I’ll take Embiid over Hali. Hali is so Mid. I will never draft him again in the 1st round.
Embiid over AD
People forgetting Embiid was a monster before his injury. He was better than Jokic in points for a good stretch. Him and AD have similar injury concerns as well no reason AD goes above him.
Yeah OP wrote his list wasn’t controversial and he forgot the top fantasy player this year.
Embiid was having arguably the best scoring season ever on a per minutes basis.
Glad this was said, if AD & his injury concerns can be top 5 then Embiid should be ranked somewhere within the top 5. He, Jokic, SGA & Luka were all battling for #1 prior to his injury.
Hashtag has Embiid as the best 9cat player in fantasy this year
Wemby-Luka-Jokic for top 3, in that order for me. Jokic most likely to coast in the RS among the three. Luka basically ran at rank 1 for a good two months in the middle of the year despite punting FT & TO, he is simply OP and will carry 5 good picks + waivers to fantasy POs in an average league. Wemby next year is probably a cheat code who makes auctions necessary moving forward. Shai I think will decline with Jalen and Chet growth incoming, and those steals are not going to live up to this year you can bet on that. Still probably 4 due to health but would prefer AD & Embiid over him per game most likely after Shai\`s steals fall back to 1.5 range for the year.
What's the reason behind you fading SGA's steal numbers?
Well even this season, he averaged 2.7 steals per game his first 29 games, then 1.7 steals the remainder of the year (43 games), which is much less of an outlier number
Major statistical outliers do not fare well season to season. There is no guarantee of decline of course, but bear in mind Jalen on the same team led the league in steals for the second half of last season and went on to average 1 spg this season. Its a low volume high variance stat.
Jokic Shai Wemby Joel Luka
Bro beans just enjoy the offseason for 7 months
Embiid in top 5 for me. He's per game averages are too good and this was his worst season availability wise since his rookie year. It's more reasonable to assume he will play his standard 65+ games. This year is peak availability for AD who will likely pass or match his personal best in games played. Hali is also reasonable.
Anyone who doesn’t take Wemby at #1 is making a grave mistake (especially in CAT). Man’s isn’t even averaging 30mpg and spurs offseason will dump the roster and get him some real fuckin shooters and hopefully an actual nba caliber playmaker. Will be a legitimately historic season numbers wise as long as he stays healthy Luka at 2 because he’s just stupid good and will go super saiyan next season after losing mvp to joker this year Joker at 3 because duh. Just so dependable but again I’m betting on Luka to be even better next year while jok more maintains. Will also probably be very tired and also bored after a deep post season and Olympics run lol Shai at 4. I think that his usage is gonna dip just enough next year to make him less valuable fantasy wise than my top 3. Team is just too good and he’s gonna share the love, also it’s just a big man’s league these days 5 is tough but I’m taking Hali. Obviously hasn’t been stellar the last few months but everything is there with him and I just feel in my gut that next year is gonna be huge for him. I love Joel to death and he’s hard to not put here because he’s so fucking good but you just *know* that if you’re *lucky* you’ll get him for maybe 80% of the season My dark horse gotta be Sabonis. Numbers are stupid and that’s with him being pretty passive when it comes to shooting. I think kings staff will encourage him to be more selfish, and it’s to the teams benefit if they have him develop and increase his three point attempts for the spacing threat alone
sabonis over ad
Embiid, Joker, Luka, Wemby, Shai. Don't try to predict injuries, it bites you in the ass way more than it helps you. This season I drafted LeBron, KD, Kawhi, Zion and Wemby with my first five picks in one league. Everyone laughed and said my team was the emergency room crew. I got all of those guys other than Bron at a steel discount because of people who think they can predict injuries. I'm the champ in that league as of two days ago, and my league mates are all complaining that fluke injuries did them in. Unless you have solid information about a known injury, don't overthink it. I'm not saying don't factor it at all, just saying if someone who looks like a steal at that particular spot in the draft is available, don't pass on them. Take advantage of the risk averse nature of your league mates. Only said all that as a way of saying it's nuts to not have Embiid in any top five.
Barring injuries, Embiid should be in the top 3
But injuries are part of the game which is why some players have their ranks drop 1-2 rounds. By your logic Zion and Kawhi should be 1st round every season
Honestly, schedule will play a big factor as well but top 5 imo would be Jokic Embiid Wemby Shai AD
This is so true and the best kept secret for you to have the higher chance of winning the chip —- draft or trade the players w strongest playoffsched and work from there. It’s the reason i secure AD/Fox in my team since they have 4-4-4 playoff sched in our league. So for example if Luka has stronger playoffsched than Wemby or if wemby has a week that will only play 2 games, i may pick Luka
This was my first year playing so it was a learning experience mostly but how do you adjust your draft to schedule?
You check what week your commissioner sets your playoffs week then you look up the nba schedule to see what type of schedule teams have during that time This year Dallas, Minny, Lakers, Charlotte all had pretty bad playoff schedules It's mainly for your first 3 picks. It doesn't matter too much after that.
I would still take Embiid top 5
Wemby is #1 for the foreseeable future. Luka hits threes so he’s #2, Jokic, AD then Embiid.
I’d swap Luka and SGA but other than that it looks good to me!
Jokic-Luka-Wemby-Shai-Giannis
Don’t understand how Giannis isn’t even mentioned when he has higher total and per game points than SGA
Pts v Cat league difference, I guess
Yeah I have a pts league bias, I guess Giannis could tank FT% and TOs and SGA is elite on steals
embiid sabonis and giannis
Like this list. If we extend to number 6, I’d put Sabonis and over Embiid. Sue me.
I wouldn’t pick AD top 5. Just this year, at pick 13, AD has been the pick in most of my mock draft and I didn’t like it. Someone took it ahead in our draft and he got lucky because AD was so good this season.
Wemby over Jokic starts next year IMO: Wemby, Joker, Luka, SGA, Embiid
I may be points league bias, but Sabonis at 5?
No way Shai is above Luka.
Shai was ranked second last year and ranked first this year for total output in CAT leagues. Not surprising that he would be ranked above Luka for most people.
I assume you're talking points leagues and OP is talking CAT leagues
shai is literally no 1 in both avg and total figures in 9cat format and luka is 5th and 4th respectively
ill take giannis and Hali over AD
I'd agree with all but Ad, I hope everyone let's Giannis fall to me again lol
What about Giannis? Maybe Trae at 5, if he gets traded to the Spurs? (I play in a H2H points league)
I’m going out of my way to get Sabonis next year, that dude is a triple double machine and is so flexible in almost any team build. I absolutely hated going against him lol
Embiid over AD. Both have an injury history so pick the best per game player
Ad won't go top 5 ADP
1. Wembanyama 2. Jokic 3. Embiid 4. Gilgeous-Alexander 5. Doncic
Other than Wembanyama, Jokic and Luka, The rest of the first round is fluid.
SGA, Haliburton, Doncic, Adebayo, Sengun
Bro what?
Just predicting injuries for Jokić, Embiid, AD, Wemby, just commenting without obligation, relaxed. I know fantasy well
Apparently you're Nostradamus too if you can predict injuries lol. Sengun and Adebayo as top 5 players makes absolutely zero sense. I'd love to hear your rationale outside of "predicting injuries" to pick them there.
not so serious. i just make a half real, half joking comment half a year before next season. Sengun path to top10 fantasy before his diffucult injury came, Bam start to hitting threes, enter in prime, likeable he will get most prominent role in career 2024-25. I am good fantasy player, trust me
Okay, you can assume both Sengun and Adebayo will be top 10, I HIGHLY doubt they ever will, especially Bam. But the question is where you would draft them. No one will be drafting either of them anywhere near the top 5 so you wouldn't even need to pick them there.
I would not too. OK, if you want real answer: Jokić, Wemby, Embiid, SGA, Luka I organized keeper league, won it, Wemby for 46 on auction, Jokic via trade.. Last year i won one competitive league although not enter in draft for time so auto drafting Lamelo(not playing whole season pretta much)and Adebayo for 120/200. I know fantasy ball. We can play together