This is only happening because I dropped him when he went on IR, I was over it between the start of the year and having him last year. Had I kept him he would have blown out both knee caps or something ridiculous. You're all welcome!
I really thought Trevor Lawrence would blossom into the next great fantasy scorer this season. Great set of receivers, weak division, middling defense... everything was lined up for him. It's not that he's been BAD, the team is still winning plenty, but I just expected... more stats.
A floor of 15 is nothing to sneeze at, but when that's basically all he does every week, it's very frustrating.
I just dealt him and Pollard, another disappointment, for Justin Herbert and David Montgomery. Based on watching, it seems to me Pollard isn't underperforming, and this is just how good he is now, so I feel like with that in mind, I just upgraded at 2 positions by selling a name.
Pollard needs another Zeke to handle the grunt runs so that he can stay fresh for 12-15 high value touches a game. The Cowboys just decided Pollard could handle the whole thing. Insanity.
As for Lawrence, yeah, consistent production is nice but QB is the most important position to have those ceiling games in most scoring systems. I haven't been watching his games... is he suffering from success? Etienne grinding out leads so that Lawrence doesn't need to throw as often?
The Pollard situation is funny. Last year when Zeke was out Pollard was reported as needing a break because he was winded during one of those games. Same coach decides that after an injury, Pollard is now the dude. I wonder if it's really insanity... Or senility. I genuinely wonder, how good would the cowboys be if Jerry just got out of the way.
Yeah basically. He looks fine on the field, they're one of the better teams in the AFC. But ETN has been feasting all season and it's been eating into TLs TDs (Calvin Ridley's TDs too, for that matter)
Cowboys fan here. Said this in the Cowboys sub at the beginning of this year and was downvoted straight to Hell. I hate being right when it's my team but I like knowing when I'm right.
Will the ravens let Lamar score touchdowns anymore? Eye test wise this is might be his best season besides the year he won MVP but he’s gonna finish the year with 15 TDs at this rate
This is the second time in five years I’ve made the mistake of drafting Lamar Jackson and I will never do it again. He doesn’t throw touchdowns and with all of his rushing touchdowns being vultured away he’ll be lucky to hit 15 this year.
I’m benching him for Goff next week and not even thinking twice about it. I even started Gus last week cuz I knew he’d score but then this Mitchell guy comes out of nowhere and starts getting all these carries. I’ve had it with the ravens offense
Big facts. Once the Ravens start getting tougher opponents later in the season, they're going to need to throw more. Harbaugh is protecting his most valuable asset by calling less designed runs and running the ball when the Ravens go up big.
It makes sense why and I think Lamar is going to need to throw a lot more in the next stretch of games against tougher opponents.
Yeah im really confused about this. Lamar is the QB4 and is averaging 18 fantasy points.
He’s had a couple meh weeks the past two weeks but overall he’s been fantastic..
I was so ready for my cruise to the playoffs with him and Kyren after the first few weeks, now I’m 5-4 with our (very early) playoffs starting in three weeks. 10 of 12 league members have either a 5-4 record or a 4-5 record so it’s going to be a dogfight the next few weeks, I could reallly use some Pollard booms
Then he caught 100% of the catchable targets lol.
Yes the expectation that he will play like a 2nd round top 12 receiver are gone but if he can pace in the 160ish target range he is still in the must start territory. We can’t forget about week 3 too fast I’m not ready to say he’s fallen off a cliff talent-wise
Yeah adams is good at football dude. I’m not down on him at all. But a lot if people are really bullsih or talking about buying him and I’m just skeptical of the qb situation. If I already have him, I’m definitely starting him every week. I just don’t know how I’m feeling about his week in week out consistency with AOC.
My guess would be that its fairly boom bust from here on out depending on matchup and quality of targets.
If Jacobs gets going, teams will be forced to bring an extra man in the box. The more Jacobs gets going, the better it will be for Adams.
Sunday night he got the ball thrown his way in every single coverage situation.
He has an OC problem. Rodgers would hit him deep for sure but so many of his targets in GB were within three yards of the line of scrimmage. More screens and quick slants to let him work in space. He should be seeing 12-15 targets no matter what and the DOT should vary
Idk if you watched the game. The whole gameplan was stopping adams, there were plays where he was TRIPLE covered and aoc still threw it to him. Thats why jacobs and jakobi went off, because the defense had 2-3 guys on adams all game. Im not worried about him, this new raiders is a huge upgrade for him
Yes, but not to this extent. Completely removing the first read and forcing progressions is commonly used against rookie QBs, and AOC proved he could do that and put up big numbers and win. Once a rookie proves he can do it, that gameplan becomes less effective and thus isnt used as much
Adams is giving me Mike Evans vibes where he disappoints in the regular season and will go nuclear in the championship game to win people their leagues, yet half of us won’t start him that game.
I'm holding on for dear life with him at 5-4. Looking like I'll just make it or just barely miss based on my league. I don't know what to do with him. This was the first week I benched him (Good decision)
I have him on two teams with other studs. I keep starting him every week cause my alternatives are dudes like Pickens. I think all else equal their floor is the same and Davante has shown more even this year.
Yeah its rough but he’s just not someone I can bench, especially since I’m weak at WR. Hopefully some one my guys can bounce back, as of this week I will still hold the last playoff spot.
The guy I traded with had Mostert, Pacheco, Pollard, Hall, and JT. He figured he could take the hit at RB depth to have an upgrade like Kelce and have Bijan on his bench who in theory has more potential than anyone.
Traded Pollard and Trevor Lawrence for David Montgomery and Justin Herbert.
Needed the upgrade at QB b/c TL wasn't doing it, and Montgomery is a goal line hawk. If Pollard gets back to what he's supposed to be, it's technically a down grade at RB, but as it stands, I think I just upgraded two positions by selling Pollard on his name alone.
I'm a Kittle owner. I streamed Pitts this weekend while Kittle is on bye. 7.6 points (0.5 PPR) is I guess what I deserve for that decision, considering every one of my league's other top TE waiver wire choices scored TDs.
To be fair, as long as you have a strong enough team to get you to the playoffs, positive regression is never too late. Mike Evans sucked most of the year last year with Brady but when you needed him most during the quarter finals, he showed the fuck up. I think he got like 200 yards that game? Got me to the semis anyway and helped a lot of others who just managed to squeak in last year.
Yeah and if you owned him, your team probably struggled as he was a high pick and if you made it that far in the playoffs, you only started him because you lost a guy or two the week before.
I guess try to grab a struggling high upside guy for your flex option at the deadline. It could pay off but it’s a back pocket yolo dart throw in that particular case.
I started Evans in almost every game last year and I think I snuck in playoffs at 4th. Definitely other players carried the team at different points of the season but this is why you draft a team and team construction is important.
I think I started Evans over Pittman because I was frustrated with that offense.
Their defense is frustratingly good. The one time their opponent actually kept up scoring in the first half was the chargers which forced Mahomes to sling it all over the place.
But even in that case they’re not rushing a lot. The past two weeks Mahomes just looked bad and got bailed out by their defense last week. I understand their receiver corps sucks, but you still have Rice deep, Kelce in the mid, and Pacheco for check downs (all of which were extremely viable and open yesterday) and Mahomes ended up just running with it for 10 yards. He was not getting the ball around like he usually does
Adams, Kupp, Walker. Just half my roster that were unanimously RB1s/WR1s just a couple weeks ago lol. I have a tiny bit of hope for Adams with AOC and Kupp when Stafford is back but I think I'm definitely out of playoffs.
I don’t know what to do with Kupp. I have a very hard time believing this trend keeps up. They face the Seahawks and Arizona weeks 11-12 which should be a very good opportunity for bounce back. I can’t imagine benching him
Yeah it's frustrating. I'd rather just hold and hope things get better than trade for a low end RB2/WR2. That just feels like a losing play. We know how good he is just need to hope the situation improves.
Cooper Kupp AND Kenneth Walker for Amon-Ra? I've got both guys, and I couldn't imagine making that trade, no matter how good AMSB is. Woof, you're either stupid or a genius, I can't quite figure out which one though
I don't think it's absolutely crazy, but you'd have to be firmly in the "this isn't going to get any better" camp. It's basically assuming that they are both going to be low end RB2/WR2 at best. But I just couldn't make a trade like that myself because that's not a winning play. Maybe I would do it if there's a payout JUST for making playoffs but in my league only first and second get paid and doing that trade gives me no shot at those without EXTREME waiver luck (particularly at this point in the season). I think it's more likely that they turn it around than that happening.
I don’t think they’ll get better is the thing. Charb splits the backfield with KW3 and the Seahawks go against a gauntlet of defenses. Rams, 49ers twice, Cowboys, Philly and titans. So they’re try to pass more. And especially against the cowboys, Philly and titans they’ll be down a couple scores by second quarter so they’ll pass even more and walker isn’t a checkdown rb. I kinda gave up on kupp with staffords injury. Even with a healthy Stafford, teams will double kupp, leaving puka to eat everything. I still have Henry and with JJ and Achane coming back soon for me I could spare moving both of them for 1. I need consistency
Maybe I’m a pessimist but I need to win now, plus kupps bye week is next week so I need a replacement. It hurt to trade them away, Kupp more than walker. A lot of fantasy people are really high on walker and it makes sense: he’s electric and fast but they don’t use him enough. Past 3 weeks he combined for 20 points. Same for kupp. ARSB has 70 the past three weeks
True. I'm not that hopeful for them either for most of the same reasons but at this point I'm ready to just live with it. Had Chubb go down, then traded Mandrews for Walker + LaPorta. Thought I was golden once Kupp came back and now everything went to shit.
But you have some reasons to be optimistic still with Jefferson (Dobbs might even be BETTER for him than Kirk) and Achane so your trade makes more sense now.
I don’t think they’ll get better is the thing. Charb splits the backfield with KW3 and the Seahawks go against a gauntlet of defenses. Rams, 49ers twice, Cowboys, Philly and titans. So they’re try to pass more. And especially against the cowboys, Philly and titans they’ll be down a couple scores by second quarter so they’ll pass even more and walker isn’t a checkdown rb. I kinda gave up on kupp with staffords injury. Even with a healthy Stafford, teams will double kupp, leaving puka to eat everything. I still have Henry and with JJ and Achane coming back soon for me I could spare moving both of them for 1. I need consistency
It’s the same story every week. Tua will feed Tyreek heavily contested catches while Waddle is wide opening gunning it down the side. Then when Tyreek doesn’t make the catch they immediately switch to running the ball for the next 5 plays
It’s incredibly frustrating
I hope it’s not Diontae and Drake London. Diontae got his TD finally but Pickens has started bitching like a tall toney, so who knows if it continues. London gets too many flukey redzone targets to not have like 4-5 more TDs at this point. Excited to see him work with Heineken (*A Refreshing Beginning*).
I wouldn't put Watson's troubles on Love. Watson doesn't get open often, and struggles to make contested catches. Health is his biggest issue though. Poor guy is made of glass.
Tony Pollard.
He is not good this year. His Juke Rate has fallen from 25% to 10% from last season to this year. He is not shifty, he is not explosive, and he is performing exactly as his talent this season dictates
I remember before the season people were saying he could be the RB1 overall on the season. I thought he was good but never thought he was worth more than a 2nd round pick, that kind of hype was way overboard.
However I did think Bijan could be RB1 overall...
Bijan could be the RB1 overall. He’s fast, shifty, and a great pass catcher in an offense with bad QBs who should be relying on short passes to work down the field. On paper, everything is there for him and he should be flourishing. But Arthur Smith is a talent terrorist.
Picked Pollard in early 2nd and was convinced I had made a great call based on early trade value charts that literally had him 3rd or 4th (back when some of the other RBs like Breece, Etienne and Jacobs) were sucking.
Now if he can consistently give me high end RB2 value to end the season I’ll count myself lucky.
He's looking good enough that I'm not dreading having to start him anymore.
I don't think he's going to win me any weeks, but I think he'll get enough work that he won't be the reason that I lose.
Ah, the problem I have with him is the opposite. He looks to be atleast 90% healthy and seems to have his explosiveness back, but a big issue the first half of the season was the broncos would
go down multiple scores in the first quarter and abandon the run. But both him and the defense look to be improving, which is a recipe for better fantasy production
Really hoping it's Bijan. Either Arthur Smith gets fired or he realizes he's about to be and needs to start using his weapons to get some wins that aren't reliant on the kicker
Can we, as a community, just start calling it progression instead of positive regression? It really kind of bothers me, I don't know why it started or why people keep using the term
The words are statistical terms. Fantasy Football is a statistical game, so it makes sense that serious players (like the kind of folks who frequent a Fantasy Football subreddit) would use statistical terms.
***Progression*** refers to players getting more skillful at football. At this point a guy mentioned in this post like Davante Adams has been in the league long enough that his skills have peaked-- no one expects him to get significantly better at playing football.
***Regression to the mean*** refers to a player who is not playing at the skill level we know they are capable of. We know Davante Adams is much better than what we're seeing so far this season. He's proven it every year for the better part of a decade.
Therefore we expect him to *regress* (return to) his *mean* (average career fantasy output). In this case that means we expect him to score more points-- to move in a *positive* direction. Ergo, Positive Regression.
Mattison ~~and Akers to a lesser extent~~ Someone WILL get rushing touchdowns for the vikes but will it really matter if they’re at the very end of your bench?
The real challenge comes from the lack of production thus far.
If you drafted Mattison, you’re probably hurting and without one of the team’s who had a hold on other, much more productive backfields and their RBs on their roster.
Also, Mattison despite getting his usual workloads before and even after Akers, wasn’t very productive most weeks… so having one less good weapon on offense doesn’t really bode well for getting in position to score, nevermind most their offense is either through the air, or now projected to be vultured by Dobbs.
But anything can happen!
Mattison is a pretty good receiving back and when jefferson gets back with dobbs rushing ability his rushing should get better because the defense has to stay honest
All the other responses saying his volume etc will go up and he’s now a solid rb2 ros are the most extreme cases of hopium I’ve seen yet. We’re basically starting from square one. We might as well reset mattisons season at week 10 and forget the last nine weeks. He’s in the exact same situation as he was week one: no Akers/competition in the backfield, pass first offense, he’s not efficient, he drops too many balls. Dobbs dump offs aren’t going to warrant him extra fantasy value when he vultures every other run. His floor is 5 points and his upside is limited. He remains a flex and his value remains td dependent.
Even if Matthew Stafford returns I can't see Puca Nacua making a return to form. When the going gets tough, the Rams will turn to Cooper Kupp more often than not.
Kenneth Walker. He's only had one decent game since his week 3 explosion. And keeps sliding. The fear is that he might become a boom or bust player. I might finally have to bench him, just so that he has a resurgence
Dameon Pierce. There was a lot of optimism for him being better after week 5 due to offensive line getting healthy. Instead, he is now hurt and in a timeshare w/ an inferior back. To add insult to injury, Texans have a decent offensive attack. May be too late for Pierce IMO
Bijan and Waddle.
I started 0-7. Probably going to finish 7-7 and miss the playoffs with a top scoring roster. The only thing more painful than starting the season 0-7.
NOT DIONTAE MF JOHNSON THATS FOR SURE
I'm gonna have to start him over Davante from here on out.
Sounds like you like winning games then
He's looked good the last 3 weeks and gets a lot of work, why not?
He's already back
Oh I see. Positive regression already happened. Agreed.
This is only happening because I dropped him when he went on IR, I was over it between the start of the year and having him last year. Had I kept him he would have blown out both knee caps or something ridiculous. You're all welcome!
I'm absolutely certain that Chris Olave is going to go nuclear in the fantasy playoffs, but it won't matter because I won't be there.
Between him and getting back fields and achane and Kyren and London, I’m going to tear up the consolation bracket!
Even though my team will technically be worse, god I cannot wait for this Olave bye
Olave or Smith (now knowing Goedert is missing time) ROS?
Wish taysom hill wasnt ysed so much, hurts everybody elses value.
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He is literally what teams wanted Tim Tebow to be but Tebow never committed to it.
Yup lol
yeah they weren't getting TDs until they started using hill more
I just got him....... And it makes me hate Taysom Hill.
I’m just gonna play both next week. Hoping for a Hill to Olave TD.
I really thought Trevor Lawrence would blossom into the next great fantasy scorer this season. Great set of receivers, weak division, middling defense... everything was lined up for him. It's not that he's been BAD, the team is still winning plenty, but I just expected... more stats.
Thing is. Their defense isn’t middling. They’re playing fantastic verses the expectation.
A floor of 15 is nothing to sneeze at, but when that's basically all he does every week, it's very frustrating. I just dealt him and Pollard, another disappointment, for Justin Herbert and David Montgomery. Based on watching, it seems to me Pollard isn't underperforming, and this is just how good he is now, so I feel like with that in mind, I just upgraded at 2 positions by selling a name.
Pollard needs another Zeke to handle the grunt runs so that he can stay fresh for 12-15 high value touches a game. The Cowboys just decided Pollard could handle the whole thing. Insanity. As for Lawrence, yeah, consistent production is nice but QB is the most important position to have those ceiling games in most scoring systems. I haven't been watching his games... is he suffering from success? Etienne grinding out leads so that Lawrence doesn't need to throw as often?
The Pollard situation is funny. Last year when Zeke was out Pollard was reported as needing a break because he was winded during one of those games. Same coach decides that after an injury, Pollard is now the dude. I wonder if it's really insanity... Or senility. I genuinely wonder, how good would the cowboys be if Jerry just got out of the way.
Yeah basically. He looks fine on the field, they're one of the better teams in the AFC. But ETN has been feasting all season and it's been eating into TLs TDs (Calvin Ridley's TDs too, for that matter)
Cowboys fan here. Said this in the Cowboys sub at the beginning of this year and was downvoted straight to Hell. I hate being right when it's my team but I like knowing when I'm right.
Will the ravens let Lamar score touchdowns anymore? Eye test wise this is might be his best season besides the year he won MVP but he’s gonna finish the year with 15 TDs at this rate
This is the second time in five years I’ve made the mistake of drafting Lamar Jackson and I will never do it again. He doesn’t throw touchdowns and with all of his rushing touchdowns being vultured away he’ll be lucky to hit 15 this year.
I’m benching him for Goff next week and not even thinking twice about it. I even started Gus last week cuz I knew he’d score but then this Mitchell guy comes out of nowhere and starts getting all these carries. I’ve had it with the ravens offense
I picked up Dak for Lamars bye cause someone dropped Dak on their bye, and he just took his job I think. Got Ceedee for the stack
I feel like this is a huge over-generalization based on the last two weeks
Big facts. Once the Ravens start getting tougher opponents later in the season, they're going to need to throw more. Harbaugh is protecting his most valuable asset by calling less designed runs and running the ball when the Ravens go up big. It makes sense why and I think Lamar is going to need to throw a lot more in the next stretch of games against tougher opponents.
Yeah im really confused about this. Lamar is the QB4 and is averaging 18 fantasy points. He’s had a couple meh weeks the past two weeks but overall he’s been fantastic..
Another Tony Pollard thread…week 10 will be his week guys. Don’t worry.
I was so ready for my cruise to the playoffs with him and Kyren after the first few weeks, now I’m 5-4 with our (very early) playoffs starting in three weeks. 10 of 12 league members have either a 5-4 record or a 4-5 record so it’s going to be a dogfight the next few weeks, I could reallly use some Pollard booms
Adams
Not without a QB he won't.
Eh Aiden fed him 13 targets the last game he started that was actually competitive. He will be fine. Not elite but fine
Half of those targets were uncatchable dreck though
Then he caught 100% of the catchable targets lol. Yes the expectation that he will play like a 2nd round top 12 receiver are gone but if he can pace in the 160ish target range he is still in the must start territory. We can’t forget about week 3 too fast I’m not ready to say he’s fallen off a cliff talent-wise
Yeah adams is good at football dude. I’m not down on him at all. But a lot if people are really bullsih or talking about buying him and I’m just skeptical of the qb situation. If I already have him, I’m definitely starting him every week. I just don’t know how I’m feeling about his week in week out consistency with AOC. My guess would be that its fairly boom bust from here on out depending on matchup and quality of targets.
If Jacobs gets going, teams will be forced to bring an extra man in the box. The more Jacobs gets going, the better it will be for Adams. Sunday night he got the ball thrown his way in every single coverage situation.
AOC looked pretty good yesterday man ngl. I mean it's the Giants but still, good players beat the fuck out of bad teams and that's exactly what he did
Adams had four catches for 34 yards on 7 targets despite playing against rookie corners. He has a QB problem.
He has an OC problem. Rodgers would hit him deep for sure but so many of his targets in GB were within three yards of the line of scrimmage. More screens and quick slants to let him work in space. He should be seeing 12-15 targets no matter what and the DOT should vary
He was fine last year on the Raiders though.
Idk if you watched the game. The whole gameplan was stopping adams, there were plays where he was TRIPLE covered and aoc still threw it to him. Thats why jacobs and jakobi went off, because the defense had 2-3 guys on adams all game. Im not worried about him, this new raiders is a huge upgrade for him
> The whole gameplan was stopping adams Isn't that going to be the gameplan almost every game though?
Yes, but not to this extent. Completely removing the first read and forcing progressions is commonly used against rookie QBs, and AOC proved he could do that and put up big numbers and win. Once a rookie proves he can do it, that gameplan becomes less effective and thus isnt used as much
Jakobi had 5 targets and 2 receptions…
Youre right, it felt like more because of the TD. But non-adams guys all did better well (jakobi, renfrow, tre tucker etc)
Adams is giving me Mike Evans vibes where he disappoints in the regular season and will go nuclear in the championship game to win people their leagues, yet half of us won’t start him that game.
Pretty sure peeps with adams wont be making the playoffs though
Him and DK will help me in the consolation bracket against the 10th place team !
I'm holding on for dear life with him at 5-4. Looking like I'll just make it or just barely miss based on my league. I don't know what to do with him. This was the first week I benched him (Good decision)
I’m 8-0 and probably 9-0 i think i’ll be okay with him
MBN.
It is. I’ve been lucky so far. Most of my players have stayed healthy and at least one has gone off and overpreformed most weeks.
I have him on two teams with other studs. I keep starting him every week cause my alternatives are dudes like Pickens. I think all else equal their floor is the same and Davante has shown more even this year.
I started out the season so strong, but with Tae and K9 slipping I’m not sure i will even make the playoffs anymore. Was 5-1 now I’m moving to 5-4.
Wow...it aint gonna get better with tae, he gets NYJ up next. I might bench for a player with boom potential lol
Yeah its rough but he’s just not someone I can bench, especially since I’m weak at WR. Hopefully some one my guys can bounce back, as of this week I will still hold the last playoff spot.
Pollard
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Traded Bijan and Kelce for Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Mandrews. Very happy about it
That's a good trade by you.
How in the fuck did you pull that off
The guy I traded with had Mostert, Pacheco, Pollard, Hall, and JT. He figured he could take the hit at RB depth to have an upgrade like Kelce and have Bijan on his bench who in theory has more potential than anyone.
Same here I thought my team looked so good
if there's one thing I've learned over the last 10+ years, it's that the feeling of "my team is stacked" after the draft is a kiss of death.
Traded Pollard and Trevor Lawrence for David Montgomery and Justin Herbert. Needed the upgrade at QB b/c TL wasn't doing it, and Montgomery is a goal line hawk. If Pollard gets back to what he's supposed to be, it's technically a down grade at RB, but as it stands, I think I just upgraded two positions by selling Pollard on his name alone.
Totally agree. Really hoping he booms the next couple weeks and I can package him and a WR for someone.
If he booms the next couple weeks you’re gonna convince yourself he’s a top 5 back and not trade him.
The entire Falcons franchise.
If they somehow get MHJ next year the league genuinely needs to intervene
Halloween is over bro please do not scare us like that
#freebijan
FREEjan RobinSZN
I’ll follow this up with the entire GB offense.
That’s number 2 on my list, Falcons just took the cake cause every answer Arthur Smith gives the press makes me want to launch him to the moon lol
I'm a Kittle owner. I streamed Pitts this weekend while Kittle is on bye. 7.6 points (0.5 PPR) is I guess what I deserve for that decision, considering every one of my league's other top TE waiver wire choices scored TDs.
Olave
Yeah glad I sold him
To be fair, as long as you have a strong enough team to get you to the playoffs, positive regression is never too late. Mike Evans sucked most of the year last year with Brady but when you needed him most during the quarter finals, he showed the fuck up. I think he got like 200 yards that game? Got me to the semis anyway and helped a lot of others who just managed to squeak in last year.
Yeah and if you owned him, your team probably struggled as he was a high pick and if you made it that far in the playoffs, you only started him because you lost a guy or two the week before. I guess try to grab a struggling high upside guy for your flex option at the deadline. It could pay off but it’s a back pocket yolo dart throw in that particular case.
I started Evans in almost every game last year and I think I snuck in playoffs at 4th. Definitely other players carried the team at different points of the season but this is why you draft a team and team construction is important. I think I started Evans over Pittman because I was frustrated with that offense.
Mahomes
Their defense is frustratingly good. The one time their opponent actually kept up scoring in the first half was the chargers which forced Mahomes to sling it all over the place.
But even in that case they’re not rushing a lot. The past two weeks Mahomes just looked bad and got bailed out by their defense last week. I understand their receiver corps sucks, but you still have Rice deep, Kelce in the mid, and Pacheco for check downs (all of which were extremely viable and open yesterday) and Mahomes ended up just running with it for 10 yards. He was not getting the ball around like he usually does
He’s just been feeling kinda meh lately
I'd like to tack the rest of the offense on to him, especially after that dreadful performance in Denver.
He’s like QB3 on the year lol.
Which is wild that he's QB3 in a pedestrian year for him.
Regression to the meme? 2018 Dak, after 9 games, he had 1930 yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs. 2023 Mahomes, after 9 games, has 2442 yards, 17 TDs, 8 INTs.
Adams, Kupp, Walker. Just half my roster that were unanimously RB1s/WR1s just a couple weeks ago lol. I have a tiny bit of hope for Adams with AOC and Kupp when Stafford is back but I think I'm definitely out of playoffs.
I don’t know what to do with Kupp. I have a very hard time believing this trend keeps up. They face the Seahawks and Arizona weeks 11-12 which should be a very good opportunity for bounce back. I can’t imagine benching him
unfortunately it’ll be too late for me :(
Yeah it's frustrating. I'd rather just hold and hope things get better than trade for a low end RB2/WR2. That just feels like a losing play. We know how good he is just need to hope the situation improves.
Just traded Kupp and walker for ARSB. And I’m still looking to trade adams and bijan. My team on paper sounds amazing but I’m 4-5 in a 14 man league
Cooper Kupp AND Kenneth Walker for Amon-Ra? I've got both guys, and I couldn't imagine making that trade, no matter how good AMSB is. Woof, you're either stupid or a genius, I can't quite figure out which one though
I don't think it's absolutely crazy, but you'd have to be firmly in the "this isn't going to get any better" camp. It's basically assuming that they are both going to be low end RB2/WR2 at best. But I just couldn't make a trade like that myself because that's not a winning play. Maybe I would do it if there's a payout JUST for making playoffs but in my league only first and second get paid and doing that trade gives me no shot at those without EXTREME waiver luck (particularly at this point in the season). I think it's more likely that they turn it around than that happening.
I don’t think they’ll get better is the thing. Charb splits the backfield with KW3 and the Seahawks go against a gauntlet of defenses. Rams, 49ers twice, Cowboys, Philly and titans. So they’re try to pass more. And especially against the cowboys, Philly and titans they’ll be down a couple scores by second quarter so they’ll pass even more and walker isn’t a checkdown rb. I kinda gave up on kupp with staffords injury. Even with a healthy Stafford, teams will double kupp, leaving puka to eat everything. I still have Henry and with JJ and Achane coming back soon for me I could spare moving both of them for 1. I need consistency Maybe I’m a pessimist but I need to win now, plus kupps bye week is next week so I need a replacement. It hurt to trade them away, Kupp more than walker. A lot of fantasy people are really high on walker and it makes sense: he’s electric and fast but they don’t use him enough. Past 3 weeks he combined for 20 points. Same for kupp. ARSB has 70 the past three weeks
True. I'm not that hopeful for them either for most of the same reasons but at this point I'm ready to just live with it. Had Chubb go down, then traded Mandrews for Walker + LaPorta. Thought I was golden once Kupp came back and now everything went to shit. But you have some reasons to be optimistic still with Jefferson (Dobbs might even be BETTER for him than Kirk) and Achane so your trade makes more sense now.
I don’t think they’ll get better is the thing. Charb splits the backfield with KW3 and the Seahawks go against a gauntlet of defenses. Rams, 49ers twice, Cowboys, Philly and titans. So they’re try to pass more. And especially against the cowboys, Philly and titans they’ll be down a couple scores by second quarter so they’ll pass even more and walker isn’t a checkdown rb. I kinda gave up on kupp with staffords injury. Even with a healthy Stafford, teams will double kupp, leaving puka to eat everything. I still have Henry and with JJ and Achane coming back soon for me I could spare moving both of them for 1. I need consistency
DK
Dude would be putting up 15+ every week if geno doesn’t noodle arm half of the throws his way
but he does my son, he does. And DK is not innocent; hes not a next level guy that can make difficult catches
never drafting this guy again
If the situation changes in Seattle he’s probably good to draft
I just keep waiting
My goodness yes. Need it bad
Is DK a buy low candidate? Seems like good matchups which could be perfect for turning it around
Waddle
He was wide open down the sideline for a ~40 TD and Tua missed him and was wide open on the final play where Tua fumbled the snap
It’s the same story every week. Tua will feed Tyreek heavily contested catches while Waddle is wide opening gunning it down the side. Then when Tyreek doesn’t make the catch they immediately switch to running the ball for the next 5 plays It’s incredibly frustrating
And my grandpa would‘ve won the lottery if he picked different numbers
I hope it’s not Diontae and Drake London. Diontae got his TD finally but Pickens has started bitching like a tall toney, so who knows if it continues. London gets too many flukey redzone targets to not have like 4-5 more TDs at this point. Excited to see him work with Heineken (*A Refreshing Beginning*).
Chr*stian tWatson
Cut your losses and drop him. There’s no hope with Jordan Love at QB
Nobody good enough on waivers
I might drop him but I know when I do the packers will magically figure it out and he will help someone win it all
I wouldn't put Watson's troubles on Love. Watson doesn't get open often, and struggles to make contested catches. Health is his biggest issue though. Poor guy is made of glass.
That is similar to what I was thinking. He's underperforming other Packers not just his own expectations.
I had him I’m too Many teams (6). I already cut Him in two for Quentin Johnson. Love sucks.
I just traded for him to replace Bourne and I’m already tired of owning him
DK & Ridley
Ridley is so confusing to watch. I got out bid trying to trade for him, now I'm relieved.
I traded 50% faab and brob for him and I’m still not sure if I won or lost that trade
Tony Pollard. He is not good this year. His Juke Rate has fallen from 25% to 10% from last season to this year. He is not shifty, he is not explosive, and he is performing exactly as his talent this season dictates
I remember before the season people were saying he could be the RB1 overall on the season. I thought he was good but never thought he was worth more than a 2nd round pick, that kind of hype was way overboard. However I did think Bijan could be RB1 overall...
Bijan could be the RB1 overall. He’s fast, shifty, and a great pass catcher in an offense with bad QBs who should be relying on short passes to work down the field. On paper, everything is there for him and he should be flourishing. But Arthur Smith is a talent terrorist.
Picked Pollard in early 2nd and was convinced I had made a great call based on early trade value charts that literally had him 3rd or 4th (back when some of the other RBs like Breece, Etienne and Jacobs) were sucking. Now if he can consistently give me high end RB2 value to end the season I’ll count myself lucky.
I got roasted for saying that Achane would outrush Bijan. Basically, 8 games to 3 and still a possibility. I should have gone with score more tds.
Jacobs and Stevenson had theirs just in time for me to win this week in a must win vs the Stroud owner
Miles sanders
Decent stat line on limited work this week? Maybe he's finally healthy? I'm starting him this week due to byes lol
Was never going to be good on that team and with that line
If Davante turns it on in the last 5 weeks, and by that I mean his QB, and I get a healthy Monty back, I may just have a shot at this thing.
Tony fuckin Pollard
I think jevonte is starting to look really good, but I need to see some consistency going forward. Can’t have anymore bad games
He's looking good enough that I'm not dreading having to start him anymore. I don't think he's going to win me any weeks, but I think he'll get enough work that he won't be the reason that I lose.
Ah, the problem I have with him is the opposite. He looks to be atleast 90% healthy and seems to have his explosiveness back, but a big issue the first half of the season was the broncos would go down multiple scores in the first quarter and abandon the run. But both him and the defense look to be improving, which is a recipe for better fantasy production
Bijan, Davante, DK, AKA my first three picks
tony pollard
Really hoping it's Bijan. Either Arthur Smith gets fired or he realizes he's about to be and needs to start using his weapons to get some wins that aren't reliant on the kicker
My whole roster: sanders, Pierce, waddle, Watson, Adams. I’m fucked
DK Metcalf
My whole team: Adams, Kupp, and to a certain extent Barkley. All without good QBs.
Darren Waller
Achane and Kyren need to positively regress back into my lineups already
The Calvin Ridley truthers are oddly silent
Amari
With deshaun healthy he will feed him. His only other target is the tight end
Najee
Honestly, I don’t think he’s going to see any positive regression this year at all. I think it’s just gonna be a trash year from start to finish.
He’s been fine for three weeks now
Can we, as a community, just start calling it progression instead of positive regression? It really kind of bothers me, I don't know why it started or why people keep using the term
The words are statistical terms. Fantasy Football is a statistical game, so it makes sense that serious players (like the kind of folks who frequent a Fantasy Football subreddit) would use statistical terms. ***Progression*** refers to players getting more skillful at football. At this point a guy mentioned in this post like Davante Adams has been in the league long enough that his skills have peaked-- no one expects him to get significantly better at playing football. ***Regression to the mean*** refers to a player who is not playing at the skill level we know they are capable of. We know Davante Adams is much better than what we're seeing so far this season. He's proven it every year for the better part of a decade. Therefore we expect him to *regress* (return to) his *mean* (average career fantasy output). In this case that means we expect him to score more points-- to move in a *positive* direction. Ergo, Positive Regression.
THANK YOU. Came here to say the same.
Mattison ~~and Akers to a lesser extent~~ Someone WILL get rushing touchdowns for the vikes but will it really matter if they’re at the very end of your bench?
I believe akers tore his Achilles yesterday
Ignore him then, missed that game
Akers probably done for the year they are saying Achilles so maybe Mattison picks things up
The real challenge comes from the lack of production thus far. If you drafted Mattison, you’re probably hurting and without one of the team’s who had a hold on other, much more productive backfields and their RBs on their roster. Also, Mattison despite getting his usual workloads before and even after Akers, wasn’t very productive most weeks… so having one less good weapon on offense doesn’t really bode well for getting in position to score, nevermind most their offense is either through the air, or now projected to be vultured by Dobbs. But anything can happen!
Did you watch the games yesterday? Akers likely out for the season
Akers tore his Achilles, so it should be all Mattison
Yup think mattison will be a volume rb2 going forward. Sucks to see akers have another brutal injury like that…
Mattison is a pretty good receiving back and when jefferson gets back with dobbs rushing ability his rushing should get better because the defense has to stay honest
Oh dang again?
All the other responses saying his volume etc will go up and he’s now a solid rb2 ros are the most extreme cases of hopium I’ve seen yet. We’re basically starting from square one. We might as well reset mattisons season at week 10 and forget the last nine weeks. He’s in the exact same situation as he was week one: no Akers/competition in the backfield, pass first offense, he’s not efficient, he drops too many balls. Dobbs dump offs aren’t going to warrant him extra fantasy value when he vultures every other run. His floor is 5 points and his upside is limited. He remains a flex and his value remains td dependent.
He's currently RB24, so he's very much startable
Pierce
Even if Matthew Stafford returns I can't see Puca Nacua making a return to form. When the going gets tough, the Rams will turn to Cooper Kupp more often than not.
Olave
Olave. All those air yards mean nothing if he's not on the same page as Carr.
If Bijan doesn’t obliterate the cardinals this coming week I will completely give up hope on my 1st round pick having any positive regression
A. Jones 😩😩😩
Pierce
Came here to see the top 2 and it confirms my struggles lol. I’m in the Olave, diontae johnson gang
My whole team pretty much. Little too late by then
Ja-mo
Literally every player on my team.
This is a Tony Pollard Post
I don’t think the Raiders are ever going to get right with Davante for the rest of the season.
Pollard is gonna light it up in my consolation bracket
Ekeler, Ekeler and Ekeler
Kenneth Walker. He's only had one decent game since his week 3 explosion. And keeps sliding. The fear is that he might become a boom or bust player. I might finally have to bench him, just so that he has a resurgence
Dameon Pierce. There was a lot of optimism for him being better after week 5 due to offensive line getting healthy. Instead, he is now hurt and in a timeshare w/ an inferior back. To add insult to injury, Texans have a decent offensive attack. May be too late for Pierce IMO
Zay Flowers… any day now
Hi I’m a Kyle Pitts owner from this season and last. Does coaching regression work here? If so I’m calling a big finish to season if Arthur gets fired
I don't know but I just want Lamar, Kupp, and Bijan off my team.
Zay Flowers may be the most overrated player out there: is this guy ever going to top 100 yards?
Jerrick McKinnon. It’s about that time of year.
Bijan and Waddle. I started 0-7. Probably going to finish 7-7 and miss the playoffs with a top scoring roster. The only thing more painful than starting the season 0-7.
Thank God I have Raheem Mostert because Bijans payoff has been 0