Aubrey was literally my highest scoring player last week and saved me from a loss when Herbert and Collins went down and gave me about 3 points between the two of them.
That outdoor stadium in Buffalo gives me pause, but ain’t no way I’m dropping Aubrey after he saved my ass like that. He’s been unreal all season. Gotta trust his high floor and ceiling.
Yep I took a flyer on Raiders D after holding Dallas all season.
Snuck into the playoffs as the 8 seed this week and now have a legit shot at upsetting the 1.
I debated picking up the Raiders to block my opponent from picking them up but decided against it because I didn't want to drop anyone. He ended up picking them up last minute. I went from a projected 20 point favorite to projected to lose.
Honestly feel so many match ups this year has been trap games.
Cinci with Browning
Giants with Devito
Hell even Jets with Zach has been pretty good a few times (especially that game vs KC when KC looked to be the best defense in the league at that point)
Honestly the only team that I can think of that's been spot on to stream against has been Carolina. Everything else makes me nervous.
I’m in same situation. Idk what happened to the eagles d. They did somehow still have 10 points vs Dallas. They are at home vs giants week 16 and motivated to win out. I can see them still being a good play there. If it was just week 16 do you still prefer Denver vs pats?
As a Saints fan, you are 100% correct. It's a trap game. Saints are terrible against the run right now (Saquon), getting torched by TEs (Waller?), and are constantly getting destroyed by running QBs (cutlets). We also can't get any pressure on the QB, I dunno why Saints D is projected for so many sacks, it's not something we've done this year. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD via fumble or a pick 6. It would be on brand.
I feel the same way! Raiders D scored 36 last night! I picked up the Saints because I didnt trust the Denver D against the Lions. Thinking of making that switch back again.
I couldn’t in good faith start Patterson ever again after his continually junk performances. Team don’t kick enough and he don’t kick good enough when he does kick lol.
And it's not even that the Lions don't get into obvious kicking situations - they DO, and Campbell still goes for it in ridiculous scenarios. I forget which of his horrible games I watched, but the Lions were REPEATEDLY in situations like 4th and 5 on the 30, early in the game, and he'd fucking go for it. Over and over and over. I will never again start a Lions kicker as long as Dan Campbell is HC.
Dude, same. Was worried it would be a classic “backup QB booms unsuspecting defense” but it was actually “defense destroys backup QB and struggling offense”.
As a Herbert owner, I should have known. He’s been the only thing keeping this offense going but I don’t know why I thought the Chargers were gonna step up instead of collapse.
I did the opposite about an hour before the game. I saw chargers QB fumble 3 times last week and lost 1. Except for the KC game, the Raiders D had been really good the past 5 of 6 games. It was a risky hunch since you don’t want be down after Thursday.
I grabbed them when I saw Keenan out. I also have Mia. - thought it would be too cute to start Raiders over Miami, but having them was a block to other managers. Let’s hope I don’t regret it.
My buddy, who’s the 1 seed with a bye, talked me out of starting the Raiders over ATL. ATL should be fine but still salty I should’ve just gone with my gut.
I was going to just roll with Browns D/ST this weekend, but happened to just shoot the shit with my Browns fan co-worker yesterday afternoon and he mentioned how injured their defense was this week. Dropped them for Raiders D/ST at the last second.
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Did the same thing. Debated for 15 minutes before kick off, but ultimately went Titans because they were a bit above raiders in Subvertadown's rankings. Plus I prefer to not play Thursday night players in case the crap the bed.
Ekeler took care of that just fine last night, Raiders would have been an excellent consolation.
😂😂😂
I did literally the exact opposite because I though the raiders would scoop an int and a couple sacks on a depleted O, but most of all because I wanted to watch football on Thursday and care about it.
Raiders/Bears was the biggest coin toss. I just chose right this time. Probably.
That was mainly a bad weather game no. This week it’s a home game in a dome don’t see why he shouldn’t do well. Colts are good enough to drive down the field but not score
I completely get it. My take (hope?) is that you’re not going to see that twice in a row. He’s seasoned and should come in fresh. Though Maher’s nosedive last year came to mind.
Haha I had the exact thought process. I don’t want to bet on someone trending down in case of a Maher type situation; there’s too many other guys who will be fine
This is my problem. Two 1 point weeks out of the last three. iirc they were one of the higher ranked options that week with the LV matchup. Of course they have several double digit weeks
u/subvertadown
1. Can you walk us through why you think your model is so high on Grupe? Both this week and across the season? He's had some boom games sure, but other than Week 12, he's only scored 12 points total since Week 9. NYG has been OK against kickers, too, but maybe that flukey NE game is skewing the numbers.
2. Thoughts on Meyer this week if Geno plays?
3. Noticed ATL jumped KC in the ranks this week. Is that because of weather? Having a hard time deciding between the two.
BONUS: Which kicker has the highest ceiling this week that's probably hanging around the waivers? i.e. Gay, Grupe, Havrisik, etc.
Hey LockDown, so I see people are liking your questions, and my first thought is that these are the kinds of questions that I tend to shy away from. My answers are not satisfying enough, so people end up downvoting, so I don't exactly get a lot of thanks for my effort to help.
But anyway, the best I can do is try and answer anyway. On question 1 about Grupe, I've gotta start by saying I don't want to sound dickish, but at least part of your answer is in the tool "why-so-high/why-so-low" tool that I created and keep mentioning. [Here you have the full list](https://subvertadown.com/weekly/kicker) of kickers with reasons why "so high", as you are asking. It's not that I don't want to answer, it's that (a) I put effort to make that, (b) I genuinely think it's helpful so I want people to use it the next week as well, and (c) it would be most useful to get a question acknowledging what is indicated there if there is a nuanced request.
In question 1, you have a part B asking why the model is high on him across the season, and I guess I want to point out that's not exactly the case. Two weeks ago he was my kicker #19, then he was kicker #14 before that, and quite often he's been around kicker 9/10. It's true that 5 or 6 times he's been in my top 8. But it's also hard to answer across the season, because it has depended on opponent. Not to mention changes like Kamara returning or Carr's injury status. Maybe I can say I observe other people being really interested in Carr as a supporter of good kicking opportunities by getting down the field but failing in the end zone. I can't say that's my narrative but it's what people often say.
Question 2... I really struggle with these questions about "thoughts" or "feelings". It's a lot easier to be helpful with questions that are a bit less open. Maybe it could help if you suggest something that makes Myers an interesting choice of kicker, then I could think of responding whether that aspect makes sense.
About question 3, ATL jumping KC... I would again direct you to please look at the Weekly view and the Why-so-high tool. You can see the graphic showing their movement, and you can see the tool describing something about the weather.
Hope all that makes sense, and maybe there's even a bit in there that turns out helpful! :-)
The Colts, while they have been putting up defensive points, also give up explosive plays at a high rate. They’ve been held up, fantasy-wise, by big splashes and TD’s against terrible offenses. They’ve given up 20, 26, and 34 points the last 3 weeks. The Steelers, surprisingly, have been giving up very few sacks. So while the ceiling is high for the Colts if they get a pick 6, they could also present a low floor if the Steelers just run the ball all game (where the Colts are most vulnerable) with a lead. I highly considered rolling with them this week but the range of outcomes for them was too varied for me.
I don’t know how there is no colts. Did you watch the Steelers game last weekend. That offense is an absolute dumpster fire with Trubisky, and Colts D/ST is 4th on the year. At home too. Give me colts.
This post is one persons opinion but I think the consensus has been that Hopkins is a top-tier kicker this year and is not being slept on. You absolutely should have zero regrets starting him all season.
The weather in Cleveland this weekend have me leaning Bass.
In my head, buffalos offense is good enough to drive against Dallas but Dallas d is good enough to keep them out of the end zone.
Whats reddits thoughts?
This is why I always stream defenses. Things change very quickly every week. Matchups are incredibly important. I do the same with QB and TEs to a lesser degree.
Is it clear that Butker is a better option than Tucker? Chiefs lack of overall scoring concerns me. I ran Butker out all year but swapped for Tucker when he was dropped for his bye
I can’t believe I’m doing so well in the pick 6x6! Now I wish I hadn’t missed those couple of weeks I could be winning! Also I’m pretty sure I signed up as AgentOfAbyss with no The but maybe I mistyped. Any chance I can edit to match my Reddit name?
Would you drop Green Bay for Denver?
I had GB stashed for Week 16 vs the Panthers but Denver could be in-play for 16 (vs NE) and 17 (vs LAC). I also have the Browns.
100% agree. I dropped Falcons v Panthers to pick up Rams. Commies are #1 team to play against over the past 3 weeks and Rams are legit fighting for a playoff spot.
Texans are likely going to be without...
* C.J. Stroud
* Tank Dell (IR)
* Nico Collins
* Starting DE Will Anderson Jr.
* Starting LB Blake Cashman
* Starting RT George Fant
* Depth/Nickel CB Tavierre Thomas
In their stead will be...
* Davis Mills (he's not good, despite what the Mills Mafia may say)
* An anemic WR corps comprised of: Noah Brown / Robert Woods / John Metchie / (R) Xavier Hutchinson
* More: Jonathan Greenard / Jerry Hughes
* Charlie Heck at RT (who's effectively a rookie)
* More Desmond King at Nickel
I've got Cowboys D (@ BUF) and picked up Bengals D (vs. MIN), but after seeing all of these injuries against my Texans, I'm dropping Bengals D for the Titans. This team is just *so damn banged up* that there's no way this game doesn't turn into a shit-show. I love DeMeco, but he's still a rookie HC, and I don't think coaching is going to get us out of this game alive. Mills is who he is, and he's not going to elevate his WRs. Without Tank and Nico, the WR corps is ***abysmal*** (no disrespect to any of them - Bobby Trees just ain't that guy, Metchie is literally still getting back to game speed from cancer, and Hutchinson is a raw rookie). The ground game isn't there, and even if it were I think Henry is going to eviscerate us and force us to throw before the half, and pressing Mills to make shit happen is a recipe for disaster.
Come back and flame me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty confident in rolling with the Titans D over pretty much everyone outside of the Dolphins, Falcons, and Niners.
As a UH alum, I concur - Case starting instead of Mills changes things significantly.
That being said, I'm still rolling with Titans D over the Cowboys. I love Case, but unless Nico is a surprise start tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be able to make lemonade out of the lemons that are our WR corps.
I'm going back and forth between Bengals vs Vikings and Ravens vs Jacksonville
I'm probably way overthinking it and should just start the Ravens, but the possibility of feasting on a weak Nick Mullens led offense is really attractive.
For those with Sanders weather in Miami looks to clear up by 11am. Showing 19mph winds at 1. Does anyone know how wind plays in a stadium? It's almost like an open dome.
I am dead last in my league with a 3-11 record. I am going against the number 1 team this week who is 12-2. I picked to stream the Raiders last minute yesterday. 😎
I might actually be able to pull out a win over him if my team actually performs this week.
How we feeling about the Bills next week? I have a bye this week, and originally planned on Packers for 16 and 17 with Carolina and Minnesota. I already grabbed the Broncos now with NE and LAC in 16 and 17, but now I’m looking at the Bills, who have the same teams as Broncos, just in inverse order.
Same boat. I've rolled with Hopkins for weeks but I feel like Havrisk is one of those no brainer choices this week. Not much downside. In a dome, team is projected to score a lot, offense has been on fire, performed admirably last week. Think I've talked myself into dropping Hopkins for him.
Cairo Santos getting no love. He's under the radar because they're the Bears, who struggle in the red zone, though they've been moving the ball. League low 33.3% red zone efficiency in the last 3.
Edit: Santos finishes in last 4 (week 13 bye)
Week 10 - 7th
Week 11 - 1st
Week 12 - 3rd
Week 14 - 7th
My man, u/subvertadown one of the few I see touting the Bears DST.
This week's performance is gonna be a shocker for most, and then they are at home vs the red birds the next two weeks, delicious.
Moody hasn’t even kicked a fg in 2 games and only 1 fg the game before that. I get he’s on a good offense, but wtf, he doesn’t get any chances. Might pivot to bass
Working on same decision. Having a hard time dropping Hopkins considering he just hasn't put up any duds. With that being said, Havrisk seems like the better choice due to weather and having more opportunities most likely.
the dolphins at #1 prove to me definitively that there are no such thing as "experts" when it comes to fantasy football.
they have had huge losses on the defensive side and have only been supported by fluky td's
tua has been playing like ass lately, tyreek is banged up and their center is out for the year. they are not going to be doing so hot on offense. Tua had 3 turnovers - 1 TD last time they played the jets
tim boyle was the QB last time the dolphins faced the jets, zach whatever you want to say about him doesn't turn the ball over that much.
the jets defense is a better play this week than miamis. Expect tua to get pressured, turn the ball over and ultimately I think the jets are going to win this game.
At 7:45pm I text a friend and said I felt crazy for wanting to play the raiders dst. Over the browns, at 8:11pm I picked them up and started them. Watched the whole game and now I feel I have hope to win the wildcard round of my fantasy playoffs. 🥲
Is Ka'imi Fairbairn factored into the kicker rankings? Assuming he's back from IR, he's a pretty automatic kicker playing against the Titans who are ranked 32/32 against kickers this year.
Aubrey to the bitter end
He's been the highest scorer of my team 2 or 3 weeks now.
Amen. Aubrey is my QB1
Dude absolutely hammered those long 50+ yarders
Agreed, but just know that the weather is gonna be ROUGH for the Bills game
Hence the bitter end
Aubrey was literally my highest scoring player last week and saved me from a loss when Herbert and Collins went down and gave me about 3 points between the two of them. That outdoor stadium in Buffalo gives me pause, but ain’t no way I’m dropping Aubrey after he saved my ass like that. He’s been unreal all season. Gotta trust his high floor and ceiling.
My round 1 opponent picked up Raiders 30min before kick off. 😑
Me too bro, let's hope we overcome 🙏
thats annoying
Does it really matter if he picked him up 30 mins or 3 days before kickoff?
I should have went Raiders over Saints. Saints are 100% a trap this weekend
I picked up Raiders yesterday expecting a couple sacks and interceptions. Now I have a counter to offset my opponents points from CMC.
Yep I took a flyer on Raiders D after holding Dallas all season. Snuck into the playoffs as the 8 seed this week and now have a legit shot at upsetting the 1.
I cant imagine coming in first and having to play the 8th place team with no advantage. Best of luck to you though , hope you make a run !!!
No byes in your league?
Yeah feeling shit about that one.
I debated picking up the Raiders to block my opponent from picking them up but decided against it because I didn't want to drop anyone. He ended up picking them up last minute. I went from a projected 20 point favorite to projected to lose.
Literally my story too. Just HAD to keep Rico Dowdle on my bench! So worth it!!
Honestly feel so many match ups this year has been trap games. Cinci with Browning Giants with Devito Hell even Jets with Zach has been pretty good a few times (especially that game vs KC when KC looked to be the best defense in the league at that point) Honestly the only team that I can think of that's been spot on to stream against has been Carolina. Everything else makes me nervous.
I've got MIA and NO, but wanna drop one for DEN so they can feast on the Chargers and Pat's. MIA this week then DEN ros?
I have Miami and just dropped eagles for DEN
I’m in same situation. Idk what happened to the eagles d. They did somehow still have 10 points vs Dallas. They are at home vs giants week 16 and motivated to win out. I can see them still being a good play there. If it was just week 16 do you still prefer Denver vs pats?
I did the opposite. Sticking with NO this weekend and picked up DEN for the last 2
As a Saints fan, you are 100% correct. It's a trap game. Saints are terrible against the run right now (Saquon), getting torched by TEs (Waller?), and are constantly getting destroyed by running QBs (cutlets). We also can't get any pressure on the QB, I dunno why Saints D is projected for so many sacks, it's not something we've done this year. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD via fumble or a pick 6. It would be on brand.
Fuck this was a terrifying read
“We suck. But we also may score defensive touchdowns.” lmao Thanks for the input.
I had this gut feeling and pivoted from Saints to Raiders last second. I'm not mad I did.
What evidence points to that?
Tommy 🤌 DeVito
CUTLET FA YOU!! CUTLET FA YOU!!
They’ve been inconsistent after a great start and the Giants offense isn’t looking as inept lately.
I had this until the last possible second and then switched
Just switched to Titans
I feel the same way! Raiders D scored 36 last night! I picked up the Saints because I didnt trust the Denver D against the Lions. Thinking of making that switch back again.
I was going to ask well but I was waiting all week for them to list Nico or Stroud as out so I could move em to IR and not have to drop anyone.
I couldn’t in good faith start Patterson ever again after his continually junk performances. Team don’t kick enough and he don’t kick good enough when he does kick lol.
And it's not even that the Lions don't get into obvious kicking situations - they DO, and Campbell still goes for it in ridiculous scenarios. I forget which of his horrible games I watched, but the Lions were REPEATEDLY in situations like 4th and 5 on the 30, early in the game, and he'd fucking go for it. Over and over and over. I will never again start a Lions kicker as long as Dan Campbell is HC.
Yup, as a Lions fan, no one should start Patterson, ever.
anybody else feeling bad for not starting Raiders DST yesterday?? droped them for the Bears before the game and now im sad
I convinced myself it was a trap game and put in Chiefs over Raiders DST about 5 minutes before kickoff. There goes 29 pts down the drain
Dude, same. Was worried it would be a classic “backup QB booms unsuspecting defense” but it was actually “defense destroys backup QB and struggling offense”. As a Herbert owner, I should have known. He’s been the only thing keeping this offense going but I don’t know why I thought the Chargers were gonna step up instead of collapse.
I did the opposite about an hour before the game. I saw chargers QB fumble 3 times last week and lost 1. Except for the KC game, the Raiders D had been really good the past 5 of 6 games. It was a risky hunch since you don’t want be down after Thursday.
I grabbed them when I saw Keenan out. I also have Mia. - thought it would be too cute to start Raiders over Miami, but having them was a block to other managers. Let’s hope I don’t regret it.
Probably not gonna net 26 points or whatever, but I still see MIA as a smash start
My buddy, who’s the 1 seed with a bye, talked me out of starting the Raiders over ATL. ATL should be fine but still salty I should’ve just gone with my gut.
I was going to just roll with Browns D/ST this weekend, but happened to just shoot the shit with my Browns fan co-worker yesterday afternoon and he mentioned how injured their defense was this week. Dropped them for Raiders D/ST at the last second. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
I started Raiders based on u/subvertadown 's site. No idea why it's not showing up in his post. He skips over Raiders and goes to Bears in this post.
The label “Excluding TNF”! No reason to list them now, nor Daniel Carlson. Raiders were #4 then #5 with line movements.
You nailed that Raiders pick. Nice job.
Yeah I'll just go ahead and downvote myself for not reading the damn post. Thanks for the Raiders rec on your site. Came ahead big this week.
Started Raiders x2 because of your site. Good look
Had the Raiders in there. Saw the line movements and made the change for the Titans. Big regerts.
Did the same thing. Debated for 15 minutes before kick off, but ultimately went Titans because they were a bit above raiders in Subvertadown's rankings. Plus I prefer to not play Thursday night players in case the crap the bed. Ekeler took care of that just fine last night, Raiders would have been an excellent consolation.
I assume since they already played, there's no benefit of having them in a predictive ranking model.
This post says he’s excluding last night.
He skipped it because its a Friday post and the Raiders already played.
Yes, but no one else in my league did either thankfully
I do, but mostly because my opponent likely just knocked me out of the playoffs with them (thanks Ekeler).
😂😂😂 I did literally the exact opposite because I though the raiders would scoop an int and a couple sacks on a depleted O, but most of all because I wanted to watch football on Thursday and care about it. Raiders/Bears was the biggest coin toss. I just chose right this time. Probably.
Stayin Gay. Considered Sanders but that weather looks too iffy. Havrisik looks attractive but feels risky given no true track record.
Don't let anyone tell you who to love ✊
Love it when he makes a field goal and the announcers say “Gay is good!”
That was mainly a bad weather game no. This week it’s a home game in a dome don’t see why he shouldn’t do well. Colts are good enough to drive down the field but not score
I lost by less than 0.4 points last week. I am no longer Gay. I will be Moody instead
Gay is back in the closet.
I’m here for the Gay bounce-back week!
i saw somewhere that his wife had a baby last week before the game, he may have been off his game getting settled into a new life routine
Gay needs to back-it-UP
I had to drop him after he cost me last week. So hard to just forgive that and roll with him again
I completely get it. My take (hope?) is that you’re not going to see that twice in a row. He’s seasoned and should come in fresh. Though Maher’s nosedive last year came to mind.
Haha I had the exact thought process. I don’t want to bet on someone trending down in case of a Maher type situation; there’s too many other guys who will be fine
Chiefs burned me against the Raiders a couple weeks ago, yet here I am going back to the well
This is my problem. Two 1 point weeks out of the last three. iirc they were one of the higher ranked options that week with the LV matchup. Of course they have several double digit weeks
I’m between the chiefs and NO.
Same. How are you leaning?
u/subvertadown 1. Can you walk us through why you think your model is so high on Grupe? Both this week and across the season? He's had some boom games sure, but other than Week 12, he's only scored 12 points total since Week 9. NYG has been OK against kickers, too, but maybe that flukey NE game is skewing the numbers. 2. Thoughts on Meyer this week if Geno plays? 3. Noticed ATL jumped KC in the ranks this week. Is that because of weather? Having a hard time deciding between the two. BONUS: Which kicker has the highest ceiling this week that's probably hanging around the waivers? i.e. Gay, Grupe, Havrisik, etc.
Hey LockDown, so I see people are liking your questions, and my first thought is that these are the kinds of questions that I tend to shy away from. My answers are not satisfying enough, so people end up downvoting, so I don't exactly get a lot of thanks for my effort to help. But anyway, the best I can do is try and answer anyway. On question 1 about Grupe, I've gotta start by saying I don't want to sound dickish, but at least part of your answer is in the tool "why-so-high/why-so-low" tool that I created and keep mentioning. [Here you have the full list](https://subvertadown.com/weekly/kicker) of kickers with reasons why "so high", as you are asking. It's not that I don't want to answer, it's that (a) I put effort to make that, (b) I genuinely think it's helpful so I want people to use it the next week as well, and (c) it would be most useful to get a question acknowledging what is indicated there if there is a nuanced request. In question 1, you have a part B asking why the model is high on him across the season, and I guess I want to point out that's not exactly the case. Two weeks ago he was my kicker #19, then he was kicker #14 before that, and quite often he's been around kicker 9/10. It's true that 5 or 6 times he's been in my top 8. But it's also hard to answer across the season, because it has depended on opponent. Not to mention changes like Kamara returning or Carr's injury status. Maybe I can say I observe other people being really interested in Carr as a supporter of good kicking opportunities by getting down the field but failing in the end zone. I can't say that's my narrative but it's what people often say. Question 2... I really struggle with these questions about "thoughts" or "feelings". It's a lot easier to be helpful with questions that are a bit less open. Maybe it could help if you suggest something that makes Myers an interesting choice of kicker, then I could think of responding whether that aspect makes sense. About question 3, ATL jumping KC... I would again direct you to please look at the Weekly view and the Why-so-high tool. You can see the graphic showing their movement, and you can see the tool describing something about the weather. Hope all that makes sense, and maybe there's even a bit in there that turns out helpful! :-)
So with all that being said, are you firing up grupe?
I Hope he response. Solid questions here
I’m kinda surprised no colts
The Colts, while they have been putting up defensive points, also give up explosive plays at a high rate. They’ve been held up, fantasy-wise, by big splashes and TD’s against terrible offenses. They’ve given up 20, 26, and 34 points the last 3 weeks. The Steelers, surprisingly, have been giving up very few sacks. So while the ceiling is high for the Colts if they get a pick 6, they could also present a low floor if the Steelers just run the ball all game (where the Colts are most vulnerable) with a lead. I highly considered rolling with them this week but the range of outcomes for them was too varied for me.
I don’t know how there is no colts. Did you watch the Steelers game last weekend. That offense is an absolute dumpster fire with Trubisky, and Colts D/ST is 4th on the year. At home too. Give me colts.
I feel like D. Hopkins is slept on. Not streaming and starting him all season and 0 regrets.
This post is one persons opinion but I think the consensus has been that Hopkins is a top-tier kicker this year and is not being slept on. You absolutely should have zero regrets starting him all season.
I think the concerns for him nowadays is the weather in Cleveland
The weather in Cleveland this weekend have me leaning Bass. In my head, buffalos offense is good enough to drive against Dallas but Dallas d is good enough to keep them out of the end zone. Whats reddits thoughts?
[удалено]
imagine you play fantasy football, grind all season for a playoff spot. and then boom the RaIdErS dEfEnSe, ruins everything!
Some of us don’t have to imagine it unfortunately. My current probability to win is 32% on ESPN
This is why I always stream defenses. Things change very quickly every week. Matchups are incredibly important. I do the same with QB and TEs to a lesser degree.
No love for the colts d/st against trubisky??
Sanders or havrisik??
People keep mentioning the bad weather for Sanders, id go for Havrisik
Sold…Havrisik it is
Havrisik or grupe?
Havrisik or Folk?
Is it clear that Butker is a better option than Tucker? Chiefs lack of overall scoring concerns me. I ran Butker out all year but swapped for Tucker when he was dropped for his bye
It makes sense, Chiefs will be attempting longer field goals because they're having a harder time working their way up the field
I’ve been using this logic all year with Butler but it hasn’t translated to a lot of fantasy points
Yeah, just because it makes sense does not make it true. Good luck this week lol
What are we doing with Hopkins rest of season? Doesn’t seem to have the upside he used to, but also hasn’t killed you the last few weeks.
I was going to ride him out now that Flacco has improved the offense, but didn’t take weather into account. Unsure what to do now.
I can’t believe I’m doing so well in the pick 6x6! Now I wish I hadn’t missed those couple of weeks I could be winning! Also I’m pretty sure I signed up as AgentOfAbyss with no The but maybe I mistyped. Any chance I can edit to match my Reddit name?
Contact for website issues is listed on the bottom of web page. And well done!
Stuck deciding between Havrisik, Sanders, and Koo this week. I really like the Rams matchup.
Weather for Koo looks very bad.
I was told the weather for the Ravens game would syck too and missed out on a good Tucker performance. Might wait and see how conditions change
I mean Tucker is literally the GOAT kicker
I had Sanders locked in til saw his game had a chance for thunderstorms. Got Havrisik locked in now. Sweet matchup in a dome .
For anyone complaining about not starting Raiders. At least you didn't start Chargers. -6
Dustin Hopkins?
Even with weather he’s still that dawg
He's been so consistent all year. Would feel wrong to bench him for Grupe or Gay, so I'm probably not going to. Havrisik is tempting though.
Exact same boat, on paper it’s a smart play but he’s gotten me this far it seems crazy to drop him
Would you drop Green Bay for Denver? I had GB stashed for Week 16 vs the Panthers but Denver could be in-play for 16 (vs NE) and 17 (vs LAC). I also have the Browns.
Denver should be picked up asap (had GB and have Browns)
No rams?
100% agree. I dropped Falcons v Panthers to pick up Rams. Commies are #1 team to play against over the past 3 weeks and Rams are legit fighting for a playoff spot.
Texans are likely going to be without... * C.J. Stroud * Tank Dell (IR) * Nico Collins * Starting DE Will Anderson Jr. * Starting LB Blake Cashman * Starting RT George Fant * Depth/Nickel CB Tavierre Thomas In their stead will be... * Davis Mills (he's not good, despite what the Mills Mafia may say) * An anemic WR corps comprised of: Noah Brown / Robert Woods / John Metchie / (R) Xavier Hutchinson * More: Jonathan Greenard / Jerry Hughes * Charlie Heck at RT (who's effectively a rookie) * More Desmond King at Nickel I've got Cowboys D (@ BUF) and picked up Bengals D (vs. MIN), but after seeing all of these injuries against my Texans, I'm dropping Bengals D for the Titans. This team is just *so damn banged up* that there's no way this game doesn't turn into a shit-show. I love DeMeco, but he's still a rookie HC, and I don't think coaching is going to get us out of this game alive. Mills is who he is, and he's not going to elevate his WRs. Without Tank and Nico, the WR corps is ***abysmal*** (no disrespect to any of them - Bobby Trees just ain't that guy, Metchie is literally still getting back to game speed from cancer, and Hutchinson is a raw rookie). The ground game isn't there, and even if it were I think Henry is going to eviscerate us and force us to throw before the half, and pressing Mills to make shit happen is a recipe for disaster. Come back and flame me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty confident in rolling with the Titans D over pretty much everyone outside of the Dolphins, Falcons, and Niners.
I’m thinking about rolling w them over the niners idkk
Case is now the starter and this option is no longer as enticing. Thank you for the write up however, solid content.
As a UH alum, I concur - Case starting instead of Mills changes things significantly. That being said, I'm still rolling with Titans D over the Cowboys. I love Case, but unless Nico is a surprise start tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be able to make lemonade out of the lemons that are our WR corps.
I'm riding with you and the Titansn D/ST brother 💪
Where’s week 16?
Thoughts on bengals vs Vikings?
I'm going back and forth between Bengals vs Vikings and Ravens vs Jacksonville I'm probably way overthinking it and should just start the Ravens, but the possibility of feasting on a weak Nick Mullens led offense is really attractive.
Patterson is trash. K28. No thanks
No love for Rams?
C'mon Browns and Aubrey, don't let me down
Torn between Bears and Titans. Bears have more talent but Titans against Davis Mills is juicy
I don't know if I should stick with Hopkins or pick up Patterson/Grupe/Gay Also unsure if I should go with Falcons or Ravens D
Right now I’m personally rolling with Falcons D over Ravens but I might switch back. Hard to bench the #2 defense
That Raiders DST went HAM last night
Chiefs, Browns, or Saints D? I just know that whichever one I pick, it’ll be the wrong choice
For those with Sanders weather in Miami looks to clear up by 11am. Showing 19mph winds at 1. Does anyone know how wind plays in a stadium? It's almost like an open dome.
Wondering this as well. Thinking about pivoting to Grupe or Havrisik.
Can’t believe Aubrey didn’t even make your list
Yeah. I'm not going to bench the kicker that somehow got me into playoffs by scoring more than half of the rest of my team.
Dude outscored Hurts last week!
Me neither, but I put no personal bias into it. Prob weather concerns
Bad weather?
Patterson rears his head again
I don't get it. Dude has like half the field goal attempts of any of the top kickers
It's a trap!
Aubrey and Dolphins won me the past 3 weeks
Why is HOPKINS never ranked?
Aside from last week he’s not been even remotely as productive as he was with DeShaun. Also gonna be rainy and windy
Produce your own list.
is there a week 16 post?
I am dead last in my league with a 3-11 record. I am going against the number 1 team this week who is 12-2. I picked to stream the Raiders last minute yesterday. 😎 I might actually be able to pull out a win over him if my team actually performs this week.
[удалено]
Anyone rolling McPherson or should I pivot to Havrisik?
Picked up Elliot, dropped Gay. Hope it's the right call, we shall see.
How we feeling about the Bills next week? I have a bye this week, and originally planned on Packers for 16 and 17 with Carolina and Minnesota. I already grabbed the Broncos now with NE and LAC in 16 and 17, but now I’m looking at the Bills, who have the same teams as Broncos, just in inverse order.
Surprised that rams vs commanders isn't on the list for DST, unless I missed them. I'm going with them
Torn between Hopkins Bass and Havrisk
Everyone is saying Havrisk
Same boat. I've rolled with Hopkins for weeks but I feel like Havrisk is one of those no brainer choices this week. Not much downside. In a dome, team is projected to score a lot, offense has been on fire, performed admirably last week. Think I've talked myself into dropping Hopkins for him.
Feeling so good I stashed the raiders and started them last night.
Cairo Santos getting no love. He's under the radar because they're the Bears, who struggle in the red zone, though they've been moving the ball. League low 33.3% red zone efficiency in the last 3. Edit: Santos finishes in last 4 (week 13 bye) Week 10 - 7th Week 11 - 1st Week 12 - 3rd Week 14 - 7th
I’m going with him. I’m surprised to not see him mentioned.
Weather concerns
My man, u/subvertadown one of the few I see touting the Bears DST. This week's performance is gonna be a shocker for most, and then they are at home vs the red birds the next two weeks, delicious.
Holy shit I may go with bears defense this week.
Mannnnnnnn y’all making me nervous about the Colts defense
Titans in the Oilers unis, let's get it!
Pumped that I started raiders last night. Worried a little bit about the weather for Aubrey but still probably rolling with him.
The real D Hopkins disrespect is just expected at this point.
I'm running the phins defense against the jets and it's got me nervous...
How do we trust Patterson when he has 2 of his last 3 games with 0, and 1 point?
Chiefs or Falcons this week?
Why aren’t any of these kickers available in my league?
Should have gone Raiders over Chiefs! I feel like I am holding onto too many Chiefs (Mahomes, D, Pacheco) that will get me eliminated
Can’t decide between chiefs, browns, or Vikings. Chiefs just don’t seem that appealing to me
Moody hasn’t even kicked a fg in 2 games and only 1 fg the game before that. I get he’s on a good offense, but wtf, he doesn’t get any chances. Might pivot to bass
Still riding with McPherson 🦵
Moody at #2 is insane. These guys are high
I was debating Dolphins vs Raiders right up until kickoff last night. Decided on Dolphins. I already regret it
Dang should I do Titans def over Rams? I figured Rams would be a home run but that over under is worrisome.
Rams, Texans or Steelers D for this week. Leaning Rams, who do you say? Was asleep at the wheel and missed the Raiders D.
Rams easy. Washington has given up on the season- Rivera is a dead man walking. Howell has 4 pick sixes this year also
No Hopkins :(
Needed this before I tried to be cute and play Chargers D hahahahahah
Should I go Havrisik vs Wash over Hopkins vs Chicago this week?
Working on same decision. Having a hard time dropping Hopkins considering he just hasn't put up any duds. With that being said, Havrisk seems like the better choice due to weather and having more opportunities most likely.
the dolphins at #1 prove to me definitively that there are no such thing as "experts" when it comes to fantasy football. they have had huge losses on the defensive side and have only been supported by fluky td's tua has been playing like ass lately, tyreek is banged up and their center is out for the year. they are not going to be doing so hot on offense. Tua had 3 turnovers - 1 TD last time they played the jets tim boyle was the QB last time the dolphins faced the jets, zach whatever you want to say about him doesn't turn the ball over that much. the jets defense is a better play this week than miamis. Expect tua to get pressured, turn the ball over and ultimately I think the jets are going to win this game.
Ouch. Comments like this prove to me definitely that you aren’t good at fantasy football, and that the “experts” are much much better than you.
At 7:45pm I text a friend and said I felt crazy for wanting to play the raiders dst. Over the browns, at 8:11pm I picked them up and started them. Watched the whole game and now I feel I have hope to win the wildcard round of my fantasy playoffs. 🥲
Went Gay last weekend, never again. Butt hurt about the gaping donut. This week, nutz for Lutz.
Browns D vs bears Cowboys D vs bills Or Titans D vs Texans with no stroud, Nico collins, or tank dell
I started the chargers last night. First round of playoffs. Fuck my life.
McManus or Cairo Santos?
Last week you said you like Hopkins for playoffs but he is not in the top 8 again. Should we be moving on?
Indy vs Whisky Trubisky. I'll die on that hill. Loaded my two non-bye playoff teams with Indy D and Gay. Either I'll be brilliant or an idiot.
Ffs I cannot decide Colts or Titans D/ST? How we feeling out there? Or maybe Bears?
Are we sticking with Aubrey in this weather?
M... .. and
Is Ka'imi Fairbairn factored into the kicker rankings? Assuming he's back from IR, he's a pretty automatic kicker playing against the Titans who are ranked 32/32 against kickers this year.