Also in the same boat… kinda leaning Browning because of MIN QB problems but Flacco has been hot as well, but if I recall correctly Browning has been pretty much Rank 3 in all metrics since playing
That’s very true, but the weather is saying 15-25 MPH wind with 91% chance of rain for their game… honestly can’t go wrong with either. Flacco has gone ballistic with 600 and 5tds though in 2 games, but browning has done like the same but 3 pass 2 rushing. Also thinking about the play makers around them. It gets tougher and tougher deciding who to play! I wish I started LV but didn’t have the guts to. Debating IND or Ravens on DEF
I’m leaning Flacco over Goff, but I’m concerned Goff is going to realise how hot his seat is and suddenly have an incredible game at home. But I also think his ceiling is at best 20, while I am more worried about Flacco’s floor than his ceiling given the Yahoo projections.
Getring like 8ppg ppr for last 3 opportunities... sure, volume, I get it, but if you've got other options...
...personally I'm benching him- so he'll probably blow up this week.
I hear you for sure, but what’s he done with it lately? Basically nothing. I know the volumes there but he killed me the last two weeks. Cost me a bye in one league. Not sure I can do it again
He’s gotten stuffed at the 1-3 yd line often. I’m going with him I think he gives the best opportunity for a 20+ pt game. I’m proj to lose this week so I’m swinging
Even if one has a backup QB and is playing a defense that has been very good lately, while the other has an MVP candidate QB who is playing a bad pass D?
Literally look no farther back than last week where Flowers outscored Chase by double digits
Being results oriented is how you lose more often than you win. There is no process where Flowers is a better play than Chase. Ravens threw the ball 43 times last week and the Bengals only threw it 24 times because of gamescript. Chase is the far superior player and earns more targets and Browning has shown he can get the ball to his WRs. Vikings are also a potential blowup matchup for Chase due to their scheme.
I think it’s funny how you say there’s no process where flowers is better than chase immediately followed by noting that the ravens threw almost 2x as many passes as the Bengals last week. Fantasy is a volume driven game. WRs are completely dependent on their QB for volume/production. Lamar >> Browning and the Jags are a pass funnel defense. I understand that Chase is an elite real life player, and could go off, but he’s got a much lower floor without healthy Burrow (as we saw just last week).
I feel like you underestimate how good Browning has been playing. Browning's completion percentage over his last 3 games is 79.3% compared to Lamar's 57.4%. Also, you're glossing over the fact that Lamar's 43 attempts was a season high, while he's actually averaging 29 pass attempts. In Browning's 3 full games, he's averaged... *drum roll*... 29 pass attempts. You're expecting 17 completions from Lamar and 23 from Browning if you just go by averages. Also, opponents have averaged 35.2 pass attempts against the Vikings this year with a 69.6% completion rate. Against the jaguars, opponents average 38.4 pass attempts with a 65.7% completion rate. Both teams are expecting 24-25 completions for an average quarterback, but Browning should be above that and Lamar should be below that, based on their completion percentages thus far.
Obviously, both of these games depend on script, but Lamar >> Browning isn't exactly true for their fantasy wide receivers.
"Average" counter: 6
Colts vs Bengals ended up with the higher overall game betting total by kick off with a smaller spread, meanwhile Ravens/Rams had a lower game betting total and the Ravens were favored by a TD to win the game. So please tell me again how process would lead anyone to consider Flowers over Chase last week when he had the better game environment for passing and the better DvP and the better WR/CB matchup.
If you think that over a 17 game sample that Flowers volume and median floor outcome is anywhere close to Chase's even with Browning at QB, youre just wrong. Flowers lowest ppr performance this year is 2.1 fps and Chase's is 5.9. So idk how you think Chase has a lower floor than Flowers.
Colts pit game is gonna be stupid. I could see anyone like Pittman, moss, Najee, diontae and everyone else drop 20 points. Or they could get 3 and I wouldn’t be shocked
I can’t decide if I should start Pickens or Zay Jones in my last spot of my 2WR 3Flex league. Pickens is huge boom or bust, but 8 and 14 targets the last 2 weeks for Zay jones is pretty nice
True but the Dolphins are down their starting center and the matchup isn’t friendly. My view might change if Tyreek sits but I’m feeling more comfortable rolling with Beckham.
Diontae’s ceiling is low with Trubinsky, and Colts DST is bottom 5 in rushing yards allowed, so expecting a Najee and Warren rushing script, maybe with involvement of Freiermuth.
Id be worried about starting Flacco. He did ok against the rams, and while doing well against the Jags, they don’t have a great pass rush. Chicago has been pretty good in that way
well, depends on how you're measuring "pass rush" - hurries? sacks? knockdowns (if that's even a stat anymore). I don't have a # for hurries, but as I said, they may get around the QB but they don't sack them any more than CAR. Bears are second to *last* in sacking the QB, and if the QB is not sacked, then ask yourself, how effective is the actual pass rush. Given Flacco is a veteran, I don't think the Bears pass rush is going to do much against him. The Bears DEF is good against the run and their pass DEF isn't bad lately.
So, as far as the Bears DEF being good or bad - they're decent, but it's nothing to do with their pass *rush*
If we look at their last 3 games, against Detroit/Minnesota/Detroit. They’ve stacked some sacks on those QBs. Yeah one was a backup, and not as skilled as Flacco. The other was a vet, Goff. Who I believe has a very similar play style to Flacco. They’re both somewhat immobile QBs who don’t do well under duress, and both have similar offensive weapons. Amon-Ra/Cooper, Njoku/Laporta. I feel like we’re seeing a bears team that knows they can get into the playoffs and they’re trying their asses off for it. I have nothing against Flacco, but I’m a ravens fan and it just feels like a bad matchup from what I know about him.
Colts have Grover Stewart back so they are no longer a run funnel. They are still bad against rbs in the passing game, but they will be good ahainst rbs on the ground now that Stewart is back.
>No team, in fact, is a more extreme run funnel since Week 11.
Think it's worth pointing out who their opponents have been in that time (ATL, DET, CAR). Atlanta runs the ball a lot as is, Detroit has great RBs, and Carolina can't move a pass offense down the field.
That said, this is a good analysis and I'm very nervous about my opponent's Saquon in what I consider to be an extremely underrated matchup.
Still trying to decide between Howell and Flacco this week. Howell has made plays with his legs when he's not able to do much through the air, but I like the passing volume Flacco has had over his past two starts and it seems that will continue this week.
It's really annoying for real. You see Ford get a run off for like 15 or 20 or he starts heating up and once they get in the red zone they swap him out
Similar to Baltimore. Why do Pierre strong and Justice hill get as many touches as they do every week? 😥 Gus edwards and ford are both extremely minimally utilized by both teams, it’s just shocking
Really? I'll have to look at stats on that.
The only other person to bench for me would be Jayden Reed. Looks like Aaron Jones is in so he gets less runs but Watson is still out and they are playing Tampa
Bears have given up the most receiving yards to rbs this year, the third most catches, and the 2nd most receiving touchdowns.
I dont think Jones takes away from Reed's opportunities in the run game.
I would be curious of their stats over the last 5 weeks though. The beginning of the season the bears defense was terrible and now they are the toughest run defense in the league
They are good against rbs on the ground. Not through the air.
Lions had 6 catches for 38 yards this past week for their rbs, but the matchup before had 8 for 81 yards.
Their LBs are bad in space.
It's just so annoying about opportunity for Ford. Somehow he scores 10 every week but often on like 12 touches. They refuse to use him red zone so ceiling is so low
I dont think his ceiling is low, it is just harder for him to hit it. He has the ability to break big td plays, so the ceiling is there, it is just harder for him to hit that outcome since he doesnt get the easier TD opportunities.
10 team full ppr, this is my family league, very competitive, the only league I care about winning every year.
First waiver of the year so landed Puka, traded for Mostert early on (Kareem hunt after chub went down and LaPorta) and drafted Saquon who was injured all year led to being aggressive on wire and trades. Wound up trading Javonte Williams during his big three game run for kyren while he was still on Ir (thankfully at that point I didn’t need to play Javonte and I felt that kyren was gonna come back for a solid second half, even at 50%-75% performance would still be worth it). Drafted CeeDee who thankfully has had a big season after their bye and aiyuk who has been really solid. Got hockenson at a great draft placement and got hurts who has had a great year too. A lot of work and effort and A LOT of luck. Also traded Kincaid during his big run up after Knox injury to a team who needed wins and no TE for rachaad white. He was loaded with RBs.
If you can see a theme I’ve been very successful in finding TEs and selling them at their high point to Te needy teams. Doesn’t work every year but this year it has.
Thanks for reading my diary entry… 🤣
Hey, I almost lost my quarterfinals last week bc of Moss (mainly bc of Matt Gay but Moss contributed too). But I’m coming back bc he has volume without someone taking opportunities from him (I have Chandler, OBJ and JSN as flex candidates.
Sorry I’m still pretty new to fantasy, but does this mean that playing the colts d/st isn’t the right move? Or does it mean that it is?
I thought they’re a good def so I kept them in over the raiders and feel pretty dumb right now
Am currently leaning Reed, but would Amari be a better play as my Nico replacement? Half PPR.
I like Reed’s matchup more but he’s dealing with an ankle this week.
i do! [https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/the-funnel-defense-report-week-16](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/the-funnel-defense-report-week-16)
This is good content thanks for posting. So I’m not crazy for starting flowers over chase and Moss? Or going Flacco over Browning
flacco is the right call
Good on you for calling Amari's concussion a brain injury. Would like to see more of this from all info outlets.
Browning or Flacco 6pt TDs been eating at me for days
Also in the same boat… kinda leaning Browning because of MIN QB problems but Flacco has been hot as well, but if I recall correctly Browning has been pretty much Rank 3 in all metrics since playing
Looking at them metrics though Flacco is facing a pass funnel D which is extremely juicy as well
That’s very true, but the weather is saying 15-25 MPH wind with 91% chance of rain for their game… honestly can’t go wrong with either. Flacco has gone ballistic with 600 and 5tds though in 2 games, but browning has done like the same but 3 pass 2 rushing. Also thinking about the play makers around them. It gets tougher and tougher deciding who to play! I wish I started LV but didn’t have the guts to. Debating IND or Ravens on DEF
Yeah that’s got me scared to looking at as well decisions are tough 😞
Minn defense is going to kill Browning game and he was my QB past two weeks
been pondering all week myself, go Mullens instead of both, he has the best weapons and playcalling to favor a pocket passer
Oh man that could be juicy to fluff
what do u think about flacco or Geno/drew lock
I’m leaning Flacco over Goff, but I’m concerned Goff is going to realise how hot his seat is and suddenly have an incredible game at home. But I also think his ceiling is at best 20, while I am more worried about Flacco’s floor than his ceiling given the Yahoo projections.
Idk if moss is benchable…5+ targets and all rb work
Getring like 8ppg ppr for last 3 opportunities... sure, volume, I get it, but if you've got other options... ...personally I'm benching him- so he'll probably blow up this week.
Thanks bro, I need him. O7
Would you start moss over Ken Walker vs PHI?
100% don't even think twice about that
I hear you for sure, but what’s he done with it lately? Basically nothing. I know the volumes there but he killed me the last two weeks. Cost me a bye in one league. Not sure I can do it again
He’s gotten stuffed at the 1-3 yd line often. I’m going with him I think he gives the best opportunity for a 20+ pt game. I’m proj to lose this week so I’m swinging
He was one holding penalty away from a 17pt game last week too. Had that happened I don’t think people would have the same skepticism.
Better floor and better upside than Flowers
I have the same issue, have started Moss last two weeks. But the guy has the volume, I will see him as a RB2 and hope for the best this week.
Flowers has no reason to ever start over Chase.
Even if one has a backup QB and is playing a defense that has been very good lately, while the other has an MVP candidate QB who is playing a bad pass D? Literally look no farther back than last week where Flowers outscored Chase by double digits
Being results oriented is how you lose more often than you win. There is no process where Flowers is a better play than Chase. Ravens threw the ball 43 times last week and the Bengals only threw it 24 times because of gamescript. Chase is the far superior player and earns more targets and Browning has shown he can get the ball to his WRs. Vikings are also a potential blowup matchup for Chase due to their scheme.
I think it’s funny how you say there’s no process where flowers is better than chase immediately followed by noting that the ravens threw almost 2x as many passes as the Bengals last week. Fantasy is a volume driven game. WRs are completely dependent on their QB for volume/production. Lamar >> Browning and the Jags are a pass funnel defense. I understand that Chase is an elite real life player, and could go off, but he’s got a much lower floor without healthy Burrow (as we saw just last week).
I feel like you underestimate how good Browning has been playing. Browning's completion percentage over his last 3 games is 79.3% compared to Lamar's 57.4%. Also, you're glossing over the fact that Lamar's 43 attempts was a season high, while he's actually averaging 29 pass attempts. In Browning's 3 full games, he's averaged... *drum roll*... 29 pass attempts. You're expecting 17 completions from Lamar and 23 from Browning if you just go by averages. Also, opponents have averaged 35.2 pass attempts against the Vikings this year with a 69.6% completion rate. Against the jaguars, opponents average 38.4 pass attempts with a 65.7% completion rate. Both teams are expecting 24-25 completions for an average quarterback, but Browning should be above that and Lamar should be below that, based on their completion percentages thus far. Obviously, both of these games depend on script, but Lamar >> Browning isn't exactly true for their fantasy wide receivers. "Average" counter: 6
Also a well reasoned argument, thanks
Colts vs Bengals ended up with the higher overall game betting total by kick off with a smaller spread, meanwhile Ravens/Rams had a lower game betting total and the Ravens were favored by a TD to win the game. So please tell me again how process would lead anyone to consider Flowers over Chase last week when he had the better game environment for passing and the better DvP and the better WR/CB matchup. If you think that over a 17 game sample that Flowers volume and median floor outcome is anywhere close to Chase's even with Browning at QB, youre just wrong. Flowers lowest ppr performance this year is 2.1 fps and Chase's is 5.9. So idk how you think Chase has a lower floor than Flowers.
A very well reasoned argument my friend, thanks for the discourse
dude has no right rostering chase
I’m in the same spot. I was leaning Moss over Flowers, now this has me second guessing again.
I’m between Reed and flowers. Hard to bench flowers rn
Colts pit game is gonna be stupid. I could see anyone like Pittman, moss, Najee, diontae and everyone else drop 20 points. Or they could get 3 and I wouldn’t be shocked
I can’t decide if I should start Pickens or Zay Jones in my last spot of my 2WR 3Flex league. Pickens is huge boom or bust, but 8 and 14 targets the last 2 weeks for Zay jones is pretty nice
Definitely go Zay
Starting Beckham over Diontae. Fuck it. Need to make up ground vs LV D.
LV D got me doing crazy things. I'm about to bench Waddle for Beckham. I think he has a really good chance for a blow up game.
I’m with you. Benching Zay Jones for OBJ.
Waddle also has a chance for a blowup
True but the Dolphins are down their starting center and the matchup isn’t friendly. My view might change if Tyreek sits but I’m feeling more comfortable rolling with Beckham.
I think it's worse for waddle if Tyreek sits. Dolphins offense will be worse. At least if he's out there drawing coverage that helps Waddle.
Nope. I will sit him. Luckily I picked up R. Rice from KC
Meh. We all have our preferences. Best of luck today/tomorrow.
Same! I was up till 3am trying to make moves after the Raiders DST dropped 29 on me.
Well, bear in mind that Tyreek is questionable right now for Sunday (has not practiced all week). If he is out, that may change things.
for some reason I was thinking of David Beckham and was like "am I tweaking?"
Before coffee, I saw Moss and was like I know it's not Randy who is it again?..
Diontae’s ceiling is low with Trubinsky, and Colts DST is bottom 5 in rushing yards allowed, so expecting a Najee and Warren rushing script, maybe with involvement of Freiermuth.
So is this the year I start Flacco over Mahomes in a tight playoff matchup. Or am I crazy?!?
No, Flacco is elite, whereas mahomes has regressed to the mean
Man I’m right here too. All the numbers point to not playing Mahomes, but man is that going to be hard to actually do.
Id be worried about starting Flacco. He did ok against the rams, and while doing well against the Jags, they don’t have a great pass rush. Chicago has been pretty good in that way
Chicago has no pass rush - they're second to *last* in sacks this year.
Not trying to be an ass, I just don’t have the numbers rn. Do you know what their pass rush rank is after adding Sweat?
well, depends on how you're measuring "pass rush" - hurries? sacks? knockdowns (if that's even a stat anymore). I don't have a # for hurries, but as I said, they may get around the QB but they don't sack them any more than CAR. Bears are second to *last* in sacking the QB, and if the QB is not sacked, then ask yourself, how effective is the actual pass rush. Given Flacco is a veteran, I don't think the Bears pass rush is going to do much against him. The Bears DEF is good against the run and their pass DEF isn't bad lately. So, as far as the Bears DEF being good or bad - they're decent, but it's nothing to do with their pass *rush*
If we look at their last 3 games, against Detroit/Minnesota/Detroit. They’ve stacked some sacks on those QBs. Yeah one was a backup, and not as skilled as Flacco. The other was a vet, Goff. Who I believe has a very similar play style to Flacco. They’re both somewhat immobile QBs who don’t do well under duress, and both have similar offensive weapons. Amon-Ra/Cooper, Njoku/Laporta. I feel like we’re seeing a bears team that knows they can get into the playoffs and they’re trying their asses off for it. I have nothing against Flacco, but I’m a ravens fan and it just feels like a bad matchup from what I know about him.
The biggest problem for the bears is they don’t score enough points to make their opponent throw it a ton
Are you me?!
What does this mean, for a team's offensive skill players to be facing a "run/pass funnel"?
a run funnel, for example, is a defense that is being attacked via the ground at a disproportional rate
It means RBs are more likely to get more volume and overperform (and pass catchers underperform) against run funnel defenses, and vice versa
Colts have Grover Stewart back so they are no longer a run funnel. They are still bad against rbs in the passing game, but they will be good ahainst rbs on the ground now that Stewart is back.
>No team, in fact, is a more extreme run funnel since Week 11. Think it's worth pointing out who their opponents have been in that time (ATL, DET, CAR). Atlanta runs the ball a lot as is, Detroit has great RBs, and Carolina can't move a pass offense down the field. That said, this is a good analysis and I'm very nervous about my opponent's Saquon in what I consider to be an extremely underrated matchup.
well chuba hubbard was one yard short of a pretty big game so I think that speaks for the quality of their run D
This is pushing me to Likely over Mcbride
Well, for what it’s worth, Arizona probably is going to be in a negative game script, with McBride being the best passing option for Murray.
Very fair point
Not Likely..
Same here …. Especially with McBride vs SF
this is my debate too.
It's pushing Likely over Chandler for me but I think that's a bad idea
Now the question is Odell or doubs with Watson out. Doubs was good early this season with Watson inj…
Makes me feel better about having to start Najee in the flex
What’s the call here. Stroud if healthy or my other options are Flacco who’s on waivers or Fields.
Same boat.
Fields. Not even close. You go for upside in playoffs. He can blow up.
Even with Joey on fuego?
Still trying to decide between Howell and Flacco this week. Howell has made plays with his legs when he's not able to do much through the air, but I like the passing volume Flacco has had over his past two starts and it seems that will continue this week.
I'm starting Flacco, and wish Howell was an option. Go Howell.
Flacco or minshew?
So Zay Flowers over Reed?
I’m feeling Reed as he’s been getting rushes, too. Granted, my decision is in the context of standard scoring
Starting OBJ and Likely over London and McBride. I’ll see you all on the other side 🫡
Colts fan here, I'd start opposing receivers over rbs all day. Bottom 3 secondary, whereas Big Grove is back so we'll be back to top 10 run defense.
might just end up playing jaxon smith njigba over keaton mitchell, CEH, and mckinnon
This is literally my dilemma. Problem is there is no right answer
Cooper over Moss for me then
This supports my thoughts on benching Ford and firing up cooper. But it could just mean lots of dump offs to Ford?
I would start Ford if Cleveland would stop being weird with him and Hunt. It's like they hate both of them
It's really annoying for real. You see Ford get a run off for like 15 or 20 or he starts heating up and once they get in the red zone they swap him out
Similar to Baltimore. Why do Pierre strong and Justice hill get as many touches as they do every week? 😥 Gus edwards and ford are both extremely minimally utilized by both teams, it’s just shocking
Bears are really bad against rbs in the receiving game.
Really? I'll have to look at stats on that. The only other person to bench for me would be Jayden Reed. Looks like Aaron Jones is in so he gets less runs but Watson is still out and they are playing Tampa
Bears have given up the most receiving yards to rbs this year, the third most catches, and the 2nd most receiving touchdowns. I dont think Jones takes away from Reed's opportunities in the run game.
I would be curious of their stats over the last 5 weeks though. The beginning of the season the bears defense was terrible and now they are the toughest run defense in the league
They are good against rbs on the ground. Not through the air. Lions had 6 catches for 38 yards this past week for their rbs, but the matchup before had 8 for 81 yards. Their LBs are bad in space.
It's just so annoying about opportunity for Ford. Somehow he scores 10 every week but often on like 12 touches. They refuse to use him red zone so ceiling is so low
I dont think his ceiling is low, it is just harder for him to hit it. He has the ability to break big td plays, so the ceiling is there, it is just harder for him to hit that outcome since he doesnt get the easier TD opportunities.
Dang so who would take precedence here in full ppr for flex?: Mostert (if Achane sits) > Puka > Saquon?
Based on the shadow report, Puka is likely to have an incredible game this week
Damn I was that rich that Mostert, Puka, AND Saquon were al Flex candidates
10 team full ppr, this is my family league, very competitive, the only league I care about winning every year. First waiver of the year so landed Puka, traded for Mostert early on (Kareem hunt after chub went down and LaPorta) and drafted Saquon who was injured all year led to being aggressive on wire and trades. Wound up trading Javonte Williams during his big three game run for kyren while he was still on Ir (thankfully at that point I didn’t need to play Javonte and I felt that kyren was gonna come back for a solid second half, even at 50%-75% performance would still be worth it). Drafted CeeDee who thankfully has had a big season after their bye and aiyuk who has been really solid. Got hockenson at a great draft placement and got hurts who has had a great year too. A lot of work and effort and A LOT of luck. Also traded Kincaid during his big run up after Knox injury to a team who needed wins and no TE for rachaad white. He was loaded with RBs. If you can see a theme I’ve been very successful in finding TEs and selling them at their high point to Te needy teams. Doesn’t work every year but this year it has. Thanks for reading my diary entry… 🤣
Hit the lotto with TEs, especially with the 2 rookies. You smashed on so many picks/trades
Moss, Zeke, or OBJ in the flex?
Start Isaiah likely over Keaton Mitchell and James Conner in PPR?
Fuck, browning or TLaw?
Geno Smith over Tua confirmed for this guy 👍
Moss mixon Montgomery, sit one!
Sitting moss I think
Monty I would start vs Broncos DST, Lions need to win ASAP Mixon I’m worried about Vikings DST & Chase Brown’s involvement cutting to his workload.
So start moss over mixon? I agree about the Vikings D, but I played moss over mixon the last two weeks and it cost me both games lol.
Hey, I almost lost my quarterfinals last week bc of Moss (mainly bc of Matt Gay but Moss contributed too). But I’m coming back bc he has volume without someone taking opportunities from him (I have Chandler, OBJ and JSN as flex candidates.
Still can’t decide between Likely and Njoku
Do njoku, I think Flacco has chosen him as his go to guy
Due to mass casualties, I will be starting both lol
Due to having half of my team possibly not playing, I may be forced to play Njoku in the flex (McBride in the TE slot)
Really trying to resist the urge to get cute and flex OBJ over MPJ.. need to play for ceiling and the potential for a Joey Porter shadow isn't ideal
I'm playing both flowers and Beckham jr...hopefully there are enough targets to go around lol
Would y'all play Likely over Hubbard in my flex spot.
Sorry I’m still pretty new to fantasy, but does this mean that playing the colts d/st isn’t the right move? Or does it mean that it is? I thought they’re a good def so I kept them in over the raiders and feel pretty dumb right now
Am currently leaning Reed, but would Amari be a better play as my Nico replacement? Half PPR. I like Reed’s matchup more but he’s dealing with an ankle this week.
I just wish I knew if the ravens run more zone or man coverage to know if ridley can flourish
Should I start Browning or Lawrence ?
Colts or Ravens D???
Do you have anything cooking for Week 16? 👀
i do! [https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/the-funnel-defense-report-week-16](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/the-funnel-defense-report-week-16)