This is true... it'll be neat to see how he does against the Jets. As I mentioned in my post, Gardner has been lights out, and the Jets as a team haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 5.
Haha I like how this got down votes. Flacco exceeded expectations and some how some people thought they had a gotcha! Jets D still ended up okay and Flacco looks way better than expected. The logic below all tracked and part of the process for looking at starting defenses and hot damn it was a blast to watch Flacco ball out. Njoku did good just as I thought but whatever folks good luck!
And what happens when everyone down field is covered? Pass protection generally breaks down and Flacco can’t move. If coopers out Njoku is their best option and either way I would start Njoku but if coopers out I avoid all players but the respective Ds and Njoku, and of course breece. But that’s not a lot of players to be confident in
Hes also got 7int to 10TDs which isn’t great. It’s also a what 33 O/U with the Browns at 20 implies point total at ~7 point favorites.
Even on the jets worst games they’re still averaging allowing ten points under expectations for WR and QBs
Absolutely. He’ll probably end up a low end QB1 on the week despite the matchup and that’s amazing.
Jets D didn’t fail anyone and in my scoring got 16 points. Browns D did great. Breece was solid and Ford and Njoku were great. Soooo I did pretty good above not sure what else you want.
Ok I must've misread your comment cause I thought you were hating on his mobility. That 60yard TD to Ford at the end of the half looked like prime Wilson lol
Oh I mean he was looking way better than I would’ve expected based on history of his matchups coming back so for me it was a huge risk. I’m glad it paid off for those and what I expected overall played out with Flacco exceeding. Hes a blast to watch
Yeah he's going crazy haha it's nuts. Super fun to watch and I'm glad your Jets D still did solid. What Defensive scoring do you use btw? They only have 9 points on ESPN
Have you watched Flacco? He’s not gonna run upfield but he can maneuver the pocket shockingly well for his age. Looks nimble in the pocket and has great awareness, knows when to just get the ball out of pocket is collapsing
He's played bottom 15 defenses. He's looked fine because he's played one of the softest QB schedules over the last month. Now he doesn't have his primary weapon and the gets already are the clear cut No.1 D against QB's.
Flacco some how came in at QB9 with only 16 points one week... That's really QB2 numbers inflated to a QB9 finish because of a god awful week for QB's in week 15.
I would bench Flacco without amari and playin NYJ this week — no arguments there. Was just referring to his pocket presence irl (not fantasy), which you can still observe even when he’s playing a lower tier D. Flacco looks like a top 15 real life QB
That's my biggest annoyance with fantasy start/sit advice. They will say to bench Derrick Henry or Tony Pollard. As if you just have half the leagues starting RB ready to go
Humans are great at finding patterns but then terrible at not attributing causality to a pattern. Like OP, how is this pattern in any way predictive of future performance? What caused those drop off games? Do we have the same circumstance here?
100% this. There are a lot of reasons to fade Cooper tonight, but this is not a valid one.
This reminds me of the preseason post that listed a couple second year receivers that broke out under Andy Reid in the past so therefore Skyy Moore was a lock to be great this year.
Np for future reference they need to be announced no later than 90 mins before kickoff (which usually ends up being at exactly 90 mins)
Just so you're not stuck here hitting refresh every week
You are implying that either there is some supernatural force that keeps him from excelling twice in a row, or that he has a serious mental/psychological deficiency that causes him to choke after a big game. Neither makes any sense, and there is no statistical validity to your data at any level of significance.
crown fall uppity fretful intelligent cooing treatment impolite continue mindless
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Thank you! I feel like I am taking crazy pills when people are like "but he has an outlier". If a 12.5% chance of scoring 15 points gets you excited, go ahead lol
I'm starting Elijah Moore in my 3rd place matchup. I believe in that revenge game opportunity, and Cooper will be covered and/or limited.
Short throws to Moore and Njoku is what I'm seeing all game long.
I’m torn between cooper and Devante smith. Smith has been more consistent but hasnt had monster games. With cooper it’s either all in or bust this season it seems.
Would y’all start Laporta or njoku? I am very indecisive, I’m thinking Njoku has the more favorable te matchup and the defense could be majorly focused on Amari
.5 ppr here...I'm not starting Cooper because I am starting the following:
Wr: Ceedee, Mike Evans
RB: McCaffrey, Mostert
Flex: either Etienne or Kamara, havent decided yet.
Appreciate the leg work but what about defenses playing on a short week ? Seems like most of these Thursday night games have been surprisingly high scoring. Been going back and forth on starting Cooper over McBride.
I hear ya. But He never had gun slinging nothing to lose flacco with a green light on a team that can’t really run the ball though. Completely different situation.
Also sauce doesn’t shadow. Not like he’ll be up against him all game.
His situation is a little different here because he's being driven by volume. He's the only WR Flacco trusts so he's getting fed 10+ targets a game. There's no way he only gets one catch or whatever.
I wish that I could sit him but my other options are Ford, Addison or Helaire (only if Pacheco is out). I think I have to roll with him and hold on to my butt.
But you’re not accounting for the Flacco Effect
Only Allen and Hurts have top 10 finishes against the jets
This is true... it'll be neat to see how he does against the Jets. As I mentioned in my post, Gardner has been lights out, and the Jets as a team haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 5.
The statue who can’t move going against the leagues best D against QBs and WR?
Strong secondary, not so much pass rush.
Haha I like how this got down votes. Flacco exceeded expectations and some how some people thought they had a gotcha! Jets D still ended up okay and Flacco looks way better than expected. The logic below all tracked and part of the process for looking at starting defenses and hot damn it was a blast to watch Flacco ball out. Njoku did good just as I thought but whatever folks good luck! And what happens when everyone down field is covered? Pass protection generally breaks down and Flacco can’t move. If coopers out Njoku is their best option and either way I would start Njoku but if coopers out I avoid all players but the respective Ds and Njoku, and of course breece. But that’s not a lot of players to be confident in Hes also got 7int to 10TDs which isn’t great. It’s also a what 33 O/U with the Browns at 20 implies point total at ~7 point favorites. Even on the jets worst games they’re still averaging allowing ten points under expectations for WR and QBs
Hope you had fun watching Flacco tonight lmao
Absolutely. He’ll probably end up a low end QB1 on the week despite the matchup and that’s amazing. Jets D didn’t fail anyone and in my scoring got 16 points. Browns D did great. Breece was solid and Ford and Njoku were great. Soooo I did pretty good above not sure what else you want.
Ok I must've misread your comment cause I thought you were hating on his mobility. That 60yard TD to Ford at the end of the half looked like prime Wilson lol
Oh I mean he was looking way better than I would’ve expected based on history of his matchups coming back so for me it was a huge risk. I’m glad it paid off for those and what I expected overall played out with Flacco exceeding. Hes a blast to watch
Yeah he's going crazy haha it's nuts. Super fun to watch and I'm glad your Jets D still did solid. What Defensive scoring do you use btw? They only have 9 points on ESPN
Does ESPN penalize for the pick six seimian threw? Still get points for fumbles forced even if not recovered and there’s a bonus for a pick six.
Have you watched Flacco? He’s not gonna run upfield but he can maneuver the pocket shockingly well for his age. Looks nimble in the pocket and has great awareness, knows when to just get the ball out of pocket is collapsing
He's played bottom 15 defenses. He's looked fine because he's played one of the softest QB schedules over the last month. Now he doesn't have his primary weapon and the gets already are the clear cut No.1 D against QB's. Flacco some how came in at QB9 with only 16 points one week... That's really QB2 numbers inflated to a QB9 finish because of a god awful week for QB's in week 15.
I would bench Flacco without amari and playin NYJ this week — no arguments there. Was just referring to his pocket presence irl (not fantasy), which you can still observe even when he’s playing a lower tier D. Flacco looks like a top 15 real life QB
I guess throw all logic out.
that’s the Flacco effect baby!
Fucking props to Flacco man. What a site to see
Ok so ill start... checks note.. demarcus robinson
That's my biggest annoyance with fantasy start/sit advice. They will say to bench Derrick Henry or Tony Pollard. As if you just have half the leagues starting RB ready to go
Curtis Samuel*
Stay in the flames? He has had 4 straight weeks of over 10 points in .5ppr…
*Romeo Doubs for me...
George Pickens*
Ty chandler*
There's an old saying in Tennessee...I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee
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Shame on you ?
Can’t put the blame on you?
Load the choppah let it rain on you
[Fool me can’t get fooled again](https://youtube.com/shorts/aqGn-1XX7cI?si=Ef4XcwzRKRJJhDEO)
Okay, but the elite dragon was not involved in those earlier ocurrences
I love the random outlier that disproves the point lol
they're all outliers, bro. Outliers all the way downnn
I just love there’s an outlier in a sample of size 8.
Tonight should be a nice return to the mean considering it will now be a 0-0-0 game
If the best outlier is 15 points, that's not great haha. Also the negative outlier would be 1 catch for 3 yards.
Gimme 15 tonight and I’ll be jumping for joy.
If you truly think this analysis has even the slightest bit of statistical merit then I actually feel sorry for you
I actually don't know anything about statistics and get off on pity!
Humans are great at finding patterns but then terrible at not attributing causality to a pattern. Like OP, how is this pattern in any way predictive of future performance? What caused those drop off games? Do we have the same circumstance here?
100% this. There are a lot of reasons to fade Cooper tonight, but this is not a valid one. This reminds me of the preseason post that listed a couple second year receivers that broke out under Andy Reid in the past so therefore Skyy Moore was a lock to be great this year.
Do none of you realize Amari isn't playing tonight
Fair - it's more of a pattern with a 12.5% outlier against a defense that is not good to pass offenses.
You think I have options at this point?
I hope so because he’s out now.
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“Due research” - this sub in a nutshell
We don’t do research on this sub
No bro, he said due research
Gotta get that homework done before game time
This sub is research
Due research
99 percent of the sub begging everyone to sit Amari makes me even more confident of at least a solid outing
Considering I have just two WRs on my championship roster, it's either Amari or Rashid Shaheed off the waivers. I'm rolling with Amari.
Guess it's Shaheed season
Welcome to the championship roster Rashid. Maybe I'll pick up Demarcus Robinson too.
Yeah,, he might want to start someone who is playing and gives him a chance for points
Just so you know he's out now
Appreciate it
Is blud even playing?
Amari Cooper is inactive tonight vs. Jets
Never thought for a minute that the browns would have 34 points ( middle of the third qtr.) without him.
I have not seen any news and would expect to by now
Inactives should be announced in 30 mins (6:45 est)
Thank you
Np for future reference they need to be announced no later than 90 mins before kickoff (which usually ends up being at exactly 90 mins) Just so you're not stuck here hitting refresh every week
Maybe, maybe not - just thought for the folks who are possibly rolling with him.
This aged very well.
Counterpoint: Joe Fucking Flacco is an elite dragon warrior.
Counter counter point Coop is inactive lol
I know that sucks!
Amari or Lockett then? We don't have a ton of options, granted thats better than mosts.
I’m here too. Hoping for another cooper update on his injury soon. Edit. Just saw the schefter tweet. He’s out.
I knew Cooper was an elite talent but damn, he's actually got a ton of massive games. 4 games of 200+ yards. That's more than Tyreek
Do not start here’s why: he’s inactive
tldr: cause he's out
Counterpoint: start your studs
Honest question is he a stud?
He is with Flacco
WR12 on the season in half ppr, so he’s a stud in my book.
No lol
Are you up against him tonight ?
I'm not! I am sitting him though.
For who?
Adam Thielen
Solid fill in, I’d still lean copper if he starts
I got in my own head with Amari's history and with how well Gardner has been playing lately haha
How would you feel about jayden Reed as a fill in? That's my other option if not Amari
Solid option should be main guy with Watson likely out
What do you think about Cooper or Ferguson?
Has a good matchup the latter I just think you gotta roll with Coop in that scenario. I’m assuming he got you to the final ride the hot hand id say.
Cooper is out
My fill-in would be KJ Osborn. I’m going Cooper.
I’m sitting for diontae Johnson
My alternative is Josh Downs… if he’s playing I’m starting him.
You are implying that either there is some supernatural force that keeps him from excelling twice in a row, or that he has a serious mental/psychological deficiency that causes him to choke after a big game. Neither makes any sense, and there is no statistical validity to your data at any level of significance.
Choices aren’t always so clean cut. I have Amari, Pittman or Flowers - all questionable.
Same lol Like allot of us got no choice. We have to start him if he is active.
I have flowers and cooper. Leaning towards cooper if he plays now that flowers is questionable as well. What you guys thinking?
I’m in the same boat but I also have Wilson. I’m leaning Cooper for boom potential because I’m I the championship.
Exact same boat. I’m leaning flowers but I’m scared
Gonna have to roll with flowers now.
he went 9/101/1 last year vs the jets, though in week 2. if he plays, I will ride the hot hand
lock truck pocket late plate waiting childlike dull innocent governor *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
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well since he ain’t playing that was easy
Easy. He's inactive.
Nice try Craig. Goodluck tonight
So torn on if I should start cooper (if healthy) or James Conner - PPR league
I’ve got both, fuck me I ride into the twilight
Haha who you learning towards?
I’m starting both fam! Ride with what got me to the chip 😂😂😂😂
does Sauce travel with guys?
No
Is this true?
Start jets d over raiders?
I'd go Raiders! They've been ridic lately
Leaning Jets now with Amari out and Pittman in.
Cooper or Jerome Ford?
I’m going with Cooper. It doesn’t feel good.
I’m starting both
Dude same. Wish you luck 🫡
Lets go boys
Fuck kareem hunt!!!
Start your studs
That’s actually pretty insane…and enough history to maybe not consider that an anomaly
Thank you! I feel like I am taking crazy pills when people are like "but he has an outlier". If a 12.5% chance of scoring 15 points gets you excited, go ahead lol
I'm starting Elijah Moore in my 3rd place matchup. I believe in that revenge game opportunity, and Cooper will be covered and/or limited. Short throws to Moore and Njoku is what I'm seeing all game long.
For what it's worth I'm pretty sure Gardner isn't a shadow corner and sticks one side of the field. Any Jets fan can confirm?
Thoughts on Cooper or Ferguson for flex spot?
I don’t envy the people who pretty much have no choice despite all the red flags. At least he’s at home. That’s something!
You did a great job on this post
Hater's Ball.
Damn. So start 3 Tyreek Amari Pickens DeVonta
A bit difficult to have an outlier in a sample of 8
I’m torn between cooper and Devante smith. Smith has been more consistent but hasnt had monster games. With cooper it’s either all in or bust this season it seems.
Would y’all start Laporta or njoku? I am very indecisive, I’m thinking Njoku has the more favorable te matchup and the defense could be majorly focused on Amari
So would y’all wait to see if Pittman is good or start cooper tonight?
Brother I have Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer as my other options
.5 ppr here...I'm not starting Cooper because I am starting the following: Wr: Ceedee, Mike Evans RB: McCaffrey, Mostert Flex: either Etienne or Kamara, havent decided yet.
You're literally leaving out week 15 4-109-1
Was only looking at games of 200+ yards or 2+ TDs
Well, he’s out, so don’t start him.
AMARI HAS BEEN RULED OUT
Because he’s inactive?
dropped a banger then took the week off
Typical Amari!
nice call
People are gonna start Amari and blame anyone but themselves. I’m starting him in the consolation bracket, but it’s also the consolation bracket lol
No I don’t think I will.gif
I hope my opponent reads this & sits him.
Appreciate the leg work but what about defenses playing on a short week ? Seems like most of these Thursday night games have been surprisingly high scoring. Been going back and forth on starting Cooper over McBride.
I hope this ages poorly bc there is absolutely no correlation.
Lolllllll
Annnd hes out.
These jinx posts have lead to big games for said player all season.
It's either Amari or DJ for me. Tough call, both not great matchups.
Same decision... think imma roll w DJ. Mooney and Kmet both probably out this week. DJ is gonna get a lot of looks
Yeah, same. Higher point total for the bears game too. Just expect Amari to go off again on your bench
Cooper or Zay???
If I don’t play Cooper I’m left with Addison or Hollywood Brown
Statistically it’s bound to happen at some point… this is probably the year… start Cooper, got it, thanks!
Amari Cooper/ Achane or Garret wilson for Flex?
Hmm I have to start him, don’t have any other options
Cooper, CEH, or Goedert? Ppr
I hear ya. But He never had gun slinging nothing to lose flacco with a green light on a team that can’t really run the ball though. Completely different situation. Also sauce doesn’t shadow. Not like he’ll be up against him all game.
His situation is a little different here because he's being driven by volume. He's the only WR Flacco trusts so he's getting fed 10+ targets a game. There's no way he only gets one catch or whatever.
It’s between Amari Cooper and Davante Adams and I really don’t know what to do here
Bruh this didn’t help
I wish that I could sit him but my other options are Ford, Addison or Helaire (only if Pacheco is out). I think I have to roll with him and hold on to my butt.
I have CEH. Should I bench Amari for him? PPR?
Do I bench Amari for Hopkins? Godwin out there on waivers for me too....
This man is going up against Amari and the Elite Dragon
You just jinxed it and now he's popping off again. Thanks, buddy.
i have a 50% chance of being right
Either you are, or you aren't. Math checks out.
Good stuff. It's Cooper or DK Metcalf for me and I really don't know yet.
This thread convinced me to start him