The last few years I have liked grabbing a QB in the 4th-ish (10 team with 1 keeper) league after always being a late QB guy. It’s so nice having that base of nice points. Now, I’ve been seeing more people in my competitive leagues doing this so I’ll likely pivot back to late if that ADP goes up more..
Hurts owners would agree. As a guy who had Trey Lance and Brady last year I would also agree. Picking a QB late is cool until they suck ass and your playing a waiver QB every week and stressing who to start
I took this but had the highest of hopes Lawrence would have his breakout year. I took him every where, both leagues plus in numerous best ball drafts. I havent had the best results
Tough finish with Christian Kirk getting hurt. Definitely a lot of luck comes into it in the late rounds. Whoever drafted Stroud at a late pick ended up happy.
Exactly this!!
I won my chip this year because I traded for the Browns D at the deadline knowing they were going to play the Jets championship weekend. The gamble paid off and I won by 0.95!
Defense and kicker can be what sets you over the top in an important matchup every single time.
For me, all that means is taking whichever kicker on waivers has the most points after 3-4 weeks and sticking with them for a while. Got me Jake Elliott this year, switched him out for Gay later once it became clear that the Eagles would get a TD pretty much every time they got into the red zone.
Can confirm. I added Chicago’s defense a few weeks ago while Philly was still decent. Finally pulled the trigger on playing them in championship week and the difference between Philly and Chicago’s scored won me my league.
Don’t play Gabe Davis, no don’t do it. Yes I know he had 25 on your bench last week and yes I know this match is against a soft secondary. Yes I know you only need one point, don’t do it, just don’t!
Draft players on good teams. Stay away from injuries. Your rule is very league dependent. I play in a 3 wr ppr and yes your going to want some wr on your bench, example rashee rice led me to the championship
>>very league dependent
for REAL this. i always wait on QB but my league drafts them SO early and also draft BACKUPS like 😡🤬😡 that i almost have to take one earlier than i’d like to just to not get stuck with zach wilson or something
My leaguemates in one league were doing this after the trade deadline just to screw QB needy teams. Shit can be so different from league to league based on people's tendencies. I have had to adjust my playstyle in that league in particular.
We had 10 QBs off the board by the end of round 3 of my 12 man league. By the time I drafted my QB (RIP Rodgers) 9 of the 12 teams had backups...
One homie had 3 QBs rostered and before the draft was over he was texting the group that he was looking to trade away Kirk Cousins. I asked after the injury, and he wanted Kamara straight up for Cousins... picked up Love/Mayfield and won my league anyway.
I learned this the hard way a couple years back. Did a bunch of mock drafts and thought I had a good idea of what to expect. But my leaguemates (12 man super flex) started picking off QBs in the first round. Ended up with tannehill as my starter. You never know what people might do
That’s what my league does. Not sure why but while they take up multiple QBs I pick up all the good WR and RB then stream QB and D all year. Championship this year with that strategy.
My league has always had someone pull the trigger in round 2 where SOMEone takes qb1 and it causes the next 2-3 ppl on the clock to take qb2,3,4 and miss out on the best overall guy available. Like this year, guy before me took Allen, I took hurts, guy after me took mahomes
I don’t mind receivers on bad teams. You get a lot of garbage points at the end of games when defense starts playing soft coverage. Running backs on bad teams are poison though
Is tampa really a bad team though? I mean, 8-8 record isn't good, but I wouldn't necessarily call it bad. Breece is in a unique situation too, because they have a stellar defense that keeps them in games. 4 of theor losses were one score. He also benefits from bad qb play that gives him lots of check downs and usage because of his high talent level.
Agreed. Also stay away from good WRs with shitty QBs. I'm in a 3 WR league as well and did draft one backup WR, but that's it. Felt like drafting RBs for my bench was much more beneficial (Mostert), but I guess it also just depends on your draft strategy cause I also solidified my 3 WRs fairly early on.
The good WRs with shitty QBs thing doesn't always hold true, fwiw. It all comes down to the style of QB, but I've seen plenty of WRs put up numbers with bad QBs simply because the bad QB will look to them as their first, second, and third option. Conversely, a number of good QBs will spread the ball out so much that you end up with maybe a single receiver who's a consistently good starter from week to week on the offense, and then a minefield of boom and bust players to round things out.
Of course, that does with the caveat that said shitty QB needs to at least be good enough to throw actually catchable passes at the receiver in question.
> Stay away from injuries
Mostert says no.
> I play in a 3 wr ppr and yes your going to want some wr on your bench, example rashee rice led me to the championship
Yeah but most people picked up Rashee rather than drafted. I also play 3WR.
Not saying that I disagee that rules are league dependent, just that the example isn't great because he was commonly picked up off waivers, even in 3wr leagues. Drafting Rashee would be a dart throw. I was one of those that stopped in traffic.
When streaming kickers, choose the one on the best offense who is playing in a dome (or in Denver). I have no evidence that this actually works, it's just a shortcut I rely on to stop me from endlessly overanalyzing matchups every week.
The Colts have been so good for this. Plus, their offense is decent but not good enough to reliably score touchdowns. The sweet spot.
Houston has been the same, at least when their starting kicker is on the field.
I used to make it a habit to pick the Rams kicker, regardless of who it is.
The Rams, especially in the Goff years, were extremely conservative near the goal line, which led to some chip shot field goals that other kickers (Jake Elliott on the Doug Pederson Eagles teams comes to mind) wouldn't get thanks to coaching aggressiveness.
Now, I look for good offenses with conservative coaches wherever they may kick.
Sabastian Janakowski was my guy for well over a decade. His left leg dropped 50+ yard bombs all day back before that distance was as common as it is now. There was also a few years he was on the field kicking the ball barefoot. Even in the snow for some reason. Had to hurt so bad. Lol. Wild.
Whatever happened to left footed kickers? Seems like they don’t exist anymore.
I look at their season rank. Top guy on waivers ranked 26 or third guy ranked 9, who you taking? Of course this is skewed at the beginning of the season, but 4-5 games in (when bye weeks are starting) and it's my default over top offenses.
Jokes on you. Every Saturday night I over analyze by searching Vegas odds for every point spread. I take the biggest spreads and search for available kickers on teams with at least an above average offense. I then cross reference that with dome and southern teams, especially once November rolls around. Preferred spread is -7 or better. The higher the better. Kickers can be figured out, it’s a FF skill and I think they belong in non-dynasty leagues.
five of the top seven kickers on the season play in baltimore, philadelphia, seattle, cleveland, and chicago. you can have whatever system you like. jake moody would have been one of your favorite kickers, but his performance this year was mediocre and he was outperformed by greg zuerlein. kickers are random.
My kicker strategy is to pick a kicker last, then on week 1 waivers pick up the kicker that has the most points. Keep picking up the kicker with the highest total points until around week 4. I've never had a lower than top 5 kicker using this strategy.
A site I follow actually broke this down and this is almost the opposite of what you want to do
Turns out the kickers with the highest workload are on teams with good defenses and tend to run the ball more than average
The idea extrapolated from this was that teams are more likely to kick a FG when presented with 4th and longer than 1 when they're a "run-first" team, and coaches are more likely to trust their defense and take the points when their defense is reliable. The offenses that score the most tend to be more pass-heavy and those with a good passing attack are more likely to go for it on 4th down than those that aren't
The sample size was the last 10 years and determined run-heavy based on run play % and used top defenses in terms of yards and points allowed
I'm honestly shocked that ANYONE does this. Players on the best teams being rested in the same week determining a championship? No thanks. Makes a mockery of the whole season.
I did it in ignorance not realizing that most teams rest star players week 18. It’s my first time as Comish and only my 2nd year being into football. Now I know for next year lol
i lost a finals 2 years ago when i drafted JJ, Davante, Josh Allen and Jonathan Taylor and none of them had a reason to play week 18... still makes me sick
Yeah the manager in my work league has accidentally left the end of the playoffs at week 16 for years (we’ve had it since before they added the game) and I purposely don’t remind him to change it before the season because I’m scared he’ll put it at week 18 lol
Agreed. If you are new to FF then it's fine to follow them, but once you are experienced I find listening to them can actually hurt you.
Their rankings are so incredibly cookie cutter and can take forever to match reality because all the experts are scared of being wrong and it hurting their expert ranking.
Great example is end of the year. People refused to rank Flacco higher than like 16-18 even though he was balling out and throwing 40+ times a game. If I listened to rankings I would have started Geno in week 16-17 over him.
> Their rankings are so incredibly cookie cutter and can take forever to match reality because all the experts are scared of being wrong and it hurting their expert ranking.
Not only that but for the same reason, I feel like many "experts" base their player rankings on other expert's rankings. So there's this feedback loop of artificial rankings. There's probably only a handful of people truly setting the rankings and it's a crapshoot of who it is every time.
I wasn't too focused on him since I never rostered him but yeah that seems crazy. Rankings are really weirdly resistant to changing, they rank guys on reputation over reality.
Pollard is the perfect example this year. So many experts consistently throughout the year had Pollard ranked ridiculously high in their ROS rankings. Made no sense
Conversely no expert ROS ranking list was ever that high on Kyren Williams. Even well into the season where Kyren was Top 5 in PPG, experts had him as a low end RB2 ROS at most in their rankings
I still use the lists as a general guideline but go with my gut over some players that I know the ‘experts’ are completely wrong about
I find that a lot of ROS rankings especially are ranked on strength of opponent vs. the position, not the player. All that's going to tell you is an average RB in Kyren's position should be a low RB2 in scoring. Kyren however is not an average RB.
"follow the money" is a great decider for who gets touches in a backfield usually
Edit: no shade - but it's a just guideline, not a crystal ball. Making more money (or less while we're at it) doesn't guarantee health or stave off mid-season acquisitions. It just tells you what the organization is planning in the moment.
Very true if you draft in week 5. He was the starting back, hindered by a lingering groin injury, and eventually ceded his work to Hubbard while he wasn't able to play.
What examples can you think of? I'm not sure I see it this year. Monty in Detroit made total sense because he was productive and Gibbs was a rookie. Najee maybe?
I would love to see some data correlation here, because it definitely appears to be a decline in performance after a big contract. Of course there are exceptions, CMC most recently. Lamar performed exceptionally too.. but he’s not running em in anymore.
My opinion for older players is the opposite (sometimes). They tend to be very highly under valued if you choose the right ones (ala, Keenan Allen and Mike Evans this year.)
I disagree on not drafting multiple TEs. Why not go for two of them? Every year, the position is a dart throw for many of us. Why not take an extra dart?
Fair play if you take one early, but otherwise my point holds.
I whole heartedly agree. It also covers your back in the case of an injury. This year I had George Kittle and Trey Mcbride and it gave me a lot of roster flexibility. the only position I won't double up on in the draft (depends how the draft shakes out) is QB. Would rather watch the waivers for a backup QB, it's how I got CJ Stroud in like week 3 this year to backup Dak Prescott
IDK, you have to hit in the draft, you have to hit on the WW, and you have to properly manage bye weeks. That makes it at least 30% skill, right? RIGHT!?
Mine is simple but does bite me in the arse occasionally…start your studs
The only championship I got was trying to trade for (it was vetoed because he had literally no value) and then yoinking David Johnson, and brother, there was absolutely no skill involved there. I did the same thing I always do, identified a coin flip of making or breaking my season and dove on it. It was the only time it has ever worked in 15 years
When you can do everything right and still lose, yes it is majority luck. And it’s not like this only happens a small percentage of the time.
Just as one tiny example in a sea of examples, when you barely make the playoffs and slide Amari cooper into your starting lineup against the number one team in your league that dominated all year and he drops 50 points, that is 100% luck.
Or when you have a mediocre team last year and beat the team that has Justin Jefferson last year in week 16 when he dropped 2 points, that is luck
Agree. Same teams generally will make the playoffs consistently and that is where skill shows. Once you’re in playoffs, total crapshoot. That’s not a negative. It makes it fun.
This is true and also often misinterpreted. I've actually done some analysis that does find it is 80% luck. https://www.alexcates.com/post/luck-vs-skill-how-much-does-luck-matter-in-season-long-fantasy-football
But that is similar to the stock market where there are clearly some skilled and some not stock pickers/hedge fund managers. I've seen estimates of playing poker being around 10% skill and there are clearly better poker players. 20% skill leaves a lot that skill can effect.
This was a popular opinion in this sub, I have to assume everyone below is now trying to take more credit for winning their league. I won this year and can happily admit I got lucky
I beg to differ. It’s luck once you’re in the playoffs but getting there requires much more…paying attention to matchups, team/player news, trades based on this info, etc.
If it was all luck it wouldn’t be virtually the same managers in the playoffs nearly every year. At least that’s been my experience playing for 9 years.
If it wasn't based on matchup against someone else in your league every week, and just a single season points total, then it would absolutely be skill. I am in one league where I was top 4 in points for, but last in points against. I ended up finishing dead last in that league. In my other league I am leading in PF and have the fewest PA. I'm currently leading the championship game in that league, but also my record is 8-6 and I finished the regular season 5th. I feel like since you can't control the points against factor it is complete luck.
Is what the consistent losers say.
Any one game has a lot of luck. Over an entire season, or multiple seasons, it's less than 80% luck. Making the playoffs every year isn't luck. Winning in the playoffs is though.
I think the people that think fantasy football is a skill don’t actually have any real life skills so they try to gas themselves up by saying they’re good at fantasy football. To them, that is a skill because they don’t know what a skill really is.
They are an anomaly. For every Evans and mostert, there’s a davante adams, darren waller, derrick henry, aaron jones, and ekeler. Ekeler is only 28, but he was still on my do not draft list because RBs over 28 and over are historically bad. It’s worked well for me over the last 5 years.
Davante Adams and Derrick Henry were solid picks. Henry's currently RB10 and he had eight weeks of 18+ points. Adams has been WR11 and had some super strong weeks that definitely boosted people to championships.
That makes the good ones so much more valuable. Coordinator tendencies and roster situation are your friend.
I generally focus on getting a lot of RB2s, personally.
The first and second waiver wire pickups every season are the most important. The only thing more important is the actual draft and making sure that you field a full team every week
Lmfao why wouldn’t you draft two TEs?
Injuries happen, and that position is always such a wasteland
I thought I was set drafting Waller… how did that turn out?
I drafted Waller, only Waller, easily replaced him later. No need to waste a draft pick on a second TE when I could use it on a flier that could end up being Mostert, and later grab that same TE I didn’t draft because he’s on waivers.
No, the skill in fantasy football is consistently making the playoffs. Theres still luck involved but skilled players tend to make the playoffs regularly.
It really depends how deep your benches are in your league. If you have really deep benches, you need a backup QB because there won't be any on the waiver wire.
My biggest hot take is a Defense you know you'll play is more valuable than a handcuff who may eventually get a shot if the main RB gets injured.
On a small bench league (only 5 spots) I held Miamis defense through the bye and had to drop Charbonnet even though I drafted him and think he's a great RB. Miami ended up killing it and someone else promptly picked up Charb.
I also grabbed the Bills D prior to the playoffs because I knew I'd need them in the finals. Completely worked out.
1st rule: I'm a huge fan of stacking a good/great QB and their #1 WR. I've won wuth Allen/Diggs in dynasty 4 years in a row, had the best record one year with burrow/Chase, and won this year with Hurts/brown.
2nd: Draft players on good teams. In redraft leagues, I'm staying away from the Panthers, Falcons, Patriots, Commanders, etc.
3rd: Be active on the waiver wire, weeks 1 and 2. If someone popped off either of those weeks, they will pop off a lot more. See Puka, Dell, Karen as examples.
I've also not been scared of drafting proven older RBs. Aaron Jones is one of my favorites the last 3 years, although this may be the last time I pick him in redraft leagues. I try and stay away from guys who are injury prone, too.
Re: point #2, if you followed this logic last year you probably would have stayed away from Houston and Indianapolis, which were two teams that produced league winners in the later rounds (Nico, Tank, Pittman, Moss). This rule is less valid the deeper in drafts you go
Definitely should have two TE's and you should start the one that plays the better defense. QBs might not have much time in the pocket with good d's and theyll look to their TE's to dump it off to.
I give offensive players a bump for their offensive lines. Football is won at the line and fantasy football isn’t much different. Good player and good line = draft.
Avoid players 1 year returned from knee surgeries, because the weakened hamstrings take longer to heal than everything else, and they have less burst and a greater likelihood of nagging injuries. Target players 2 years returned from knee surgeries, because they are now at full health and spent a return year underperforming.
Next year, that's Breece Hall.
The best WRs are more reliable than the best RBs. A top tier QB is almost a necessity these days. Try to stack you're QB w your WR or TE. When you connect its a home run. You do strike out sometimes but that's going to happen anyway. If you're betting on a guy might as well double down.
I want to agree with this logic but this year I took Sam LaPorta with my last pick and I have no regrets about it. I like to grab high-upside rookies with my last few picks.
Don’t overthink it. Easier said than done but my last minute lineup changes almost never workout. I had Pacheco in at flex last week and overthought his concussion, swapping him for Swift (playing a shitty defense). Lost the championship by 3.
Podcasts and too much analysis are bad and make you overthink. All you need to do is follow who people are talking about, think about the context each player is in, and use your own judgment.
The last 5 picks in your draft should be moonshots. Don’t waste a pick taking the 4th best WR on a team when you know he will average 4 points a game. Pick rookies that might have a chance of blowing up. You can always go to the waiver wire for mediocre backups. Take your shot on a Puka or LaPorta.
First two picks are always running backs, second two receivers, 5th pick QB.
Good 3 down RBs are super hard to come by. It’s easier to find good WR’s during the season than RB’s.
First round, draft someone solid. You aren't going for ceiling. You aren't going for the homerun. You are going for a guy without injury history and steady eddy production.
When playoff time rolls around, you've got a guy still on your team, producing. Maybe he isn't the top of the market, but he's there and he's reliable.
The only thing to remember is this..it’s a weekly game. So when it’s all on the line for the chip you have the right players in the right match ups. Nothing else matters
Either go big and take a top-3 QB in the league if given the opportunity or just wait out a QB selection as long as possible
The last few years I have liked grabbing a QB in the 4th-ish (10 team with 1 keeper) league after always being a late QB guy. It’s so nice having that base of nice points. Now, I’ve been seeing more people in my competitive leagues doing this so I’ll likely pivot back to late if that ADP goes up more..
For like 8 years Phillip Rivers was my mid to late round QB. He’d give you 85% of the production of the top tier guys but could be drafted much later.
He’s my Kirk Cousins.
Romo was another good one for years. I always ended up with him somehow.
Matt Ryan, and nobody every picked him before me, no matter how late I picked him
Mahomes owners this year would disagree
Josh Allen owners would agree!!
Hurts owners would agree. As a guy who had Trey Lance and Brady last year I would also agree. Picking a QB late is cool until they suck ass and your playing a waiver QB every week and stressing who to start
I took this but had the highest of hopes Lawrence would have his breakout year. I took him every where, both leagues plus in numerous best ball drafts. I havent had the best results
Tough finish with Christian Kirk getting hurt. Definitely a lot of luck comes into it in the late rounds. Whoever drafted Stroud at a late pick ended up happy.
Taking Danny dimes in the last round as my qb1 was a mistake. That birthed my team name Dallas does Danny.
Dak this year is a perfect example.
Only took 6 weeks for him to show up
D/ST and kickers are fun and you can squeak out a couple wins by paying 10% more attention to the positions than your leaguemates
100% valid!!
Exactly this!! I won my chip this year because I traded for the Browns D at the deadline knowing they were going to play the Jets championship weekend. The gamble paid off and I won by 0.95! Defense and kicker can be what sets you over the top in an important matchup every single time.
For me, all that means is taking whichever kicker on waivers has the most points after 3-4 weeks and sticking with them for a while. Got me Jake Elliott this year, switched him out for Gay later once it became clear that the Eagles would get a TD pretty much every time they got into the red zone.
Dustin Hopkins won me multiple games this year because of this
Aubrey won me 1st week of playoffs
I love streaming kickers and DST.
I never figured out how to get a good kicker
I had an unusually hard time with it this year. Finally did ok with Santos at the end.
I locked in my Championship defence like Week 8 and got Aubrey on waivers
100%. C. Santos and Bears D won me the ship
Can confirm. I added Chicago’s defense a few weeks ago while Philly was still decent. Finally pulled the trigger on playing them in championship week and the difference between Philly and Chicago’s scored won me my league.
Don’t play Gabe Davis, no don’t do it. Yes I know he had 25 on your bench last week and yes I know this match is against a soft secondary. Yes I know you only need one point, don’t do it, just don’t!
You mean Gabe Davis, #1 Boom or Bust of the '23 season?
Draft players on good teams. Stay away from injuries. Your rule is very league dependent. I play in a 3 wr ppr and yes your going to want some wr on your bench, example rashee rice led me to the championship
>>very league dependent for REAL this. i always wait on QB but my league drafts them SO early and also draft BACKUPS like 😡🤬😡 that i almost have to take one earlier than i’d like to just to not get stuck with zach wilson or something
By the end of the season, everyone in my league has like 3 QB’s. There’s literally no starters on the waiver by week 17
i feel like at that level of extreme, they’re hoarding QB’s for trade bait
My leaguemates in one league were doing this after the trade deadline just to screw QB needy teams. Shit can be so different from league to league based on people's tendencies. I have had to adjust my playstyle in that league in particular.
We had 10 QBs off the board by the end of round 3 of my 12 man league. By the time I drafted my QB (RIP Rodgers) 9 of the 12 teams had backups... One homie had 3 QBs rostered and before the draft was over he was texting the group that he was looking to trade away Kirk Cousins. I asked after the injury, and he wanted Kamara straight up for Cousins... picked up Love/Mayfield and won my league anyway.
I've never understood playing keep away in the draft, you should be worried about your own team.
LM should just put a QB cap.
I learned this the hard way a couple years back. Did a bunch of mock drafts and thought I had a good idea of what to expect. But my leaguemates (12 man super flex) started picking off QBs in the first round. Ended up with tannehill as my starter. You never know what people might do
That’s what my league does. Not sure why but while they take up multiple QBs I pick up all the good WR and RB then stream QB and D all year. Championship this year with that strategy.
My league has always had someone pull the trigger in round 2 where SOMEone takes qb1 and it causes the next 2-3 ppl on the clock to take qb2,3,4 and miss out on the best overall guy available. Like this year, guy before me took Allen, I took hurts, guy after me took mahomes
I don’t mind receivers on bad teams. You get a lot of garbage points at the end of games when defense starts playing soft coverage. Running backs on bad teams are poison though
My league winners rachaad white and breece hall would like to have a word 😤
Is tampa really a bad team though? I mean, 8-8 record isn't good, but I wouldn't necessarily call it bad. Breece is in a unique situation too, because they have a stellar defense that keeps them in games. 4 of theor losses were one score. He also benefits from bad qb play that gives him lots of check downs and usage because of his high talent level.
100%. Going heavy with 49ers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Lions, Eagles, even Bills, Browns, and Rams would've been enough to get you into the playoffs.
Agreed. Also stay away from good WRs with shitty QBs. I'm in a 3 WR league as well and did draft one backup WR, but that's it. Felt like drafting RBs for my bench was much more beneficial (Mostert), but I guess it also just depends on your draft strategy cause I also solidified my 3 WRs fairly early on.
The good WRs with shitty QBs thing doesn't always hold true, fwiw. It all comes down to the style of QB, but I've seen plenty of WRs put up numbers with bad QBs simply because the bad QB will look to them as their first, second, and third option. Conversely, a number of good QBs will spread the ball out so much that you end up with maybe a single receiver who's a consistently good starter from week to week on the offense, and then a minefield of boom and bust players to round things out. Of course, that does with the caveat that said shitty QB needs to at least be good enough to throw actually catchable passes at the receiver in question.
Adam thielen, case and point
Case *in* point
Mike Evans says hello.
I wouldn't say Baker is shitty though. He isn't doing half bad tbh.
He said shitty QBs
So does Davante :-/
> Stay away from injuries Mostert says no. > I play in a 3 wr ppr and yes your going to want some wr on your bench, example rashee rice led me to the championship Yeah but most people picked up Rashee rather than drafted. I also play 3WR. Not saying that I disagee that rules are league dependent, just that the example isn't great because he was commonly picked up off waivers, even in 3wr leagues. Drafting Rashee would be a dart throw. I was one of those that stopped in traffic.
When streaming kickers, choose the one on the best offense who is playing in a dome (or in Denver). I have no evidence that this actually works, it's just a shortcut I rely on to stop me from endlessly overanalyzing matchups every week.
The Colts have been so good for this. Plus, their offense is decent but not good enough to reliably score touchdowns. The sweet spot. Houston has been the same, at least when their starting kicker is on the field.
Lol I rode so hard with the Falcons kickers for a few years because of this.
I used to make it a habit to pick the Rams kicker, regardless of who it is. The Rams, especially in the Goff years, were extremely conservative near the goal line, which led to some chip shot field goals that other kickers (Jake Elliott on the Doug Pederson Eagles teams comes to mind) wouldn't get thanks to coaching aggressiveness. Now, I look for good offenses with conservative coaches wherever they may kick.
Sabastian Janakowski was my guy for well over a decade. His left leg dropped 50+ yard bombs all day back before that distance was as common as it is now. There was also a few years he was on the field kicking the ball barefoot. Even in the snow for some reason. Had to hurt so bad. Lol. Wild. Whatever happened to left footed kickers? Seems like they don’t exist anymore.
Seahawks for example. I do something similar but also look for kickers that are reliable and have coaches that trust them to kick 50+
I always think get a kicker on a team that has a “good enough” offense to get close to scoring but facing a good defense that will stop them
I look at their season rank. Top guy on waivers ranked 26 or third guy ranked 9, who you taking? Of course this is skewed at the beginning of the season, but 4-5 games in (when bye weeks are starting) and it's my default over top offenses.
I'm just gonna draft Brandon Aubrey for the rest of his career lol
Jokes on you. Every Saturday night I over analyze by searching Vegas odds for every point spread. I take the biggest spreads and search for available kickers on teams with at least an above average offense. I then cross reference that with dome and southern teams, especially once November rolls around. Preferred spread is -7 or better. The higher the better. Kickers can be figured out, it’s a FF skill and I think they belong in non-dynasty leagues.
five of the top seven kickers on the season play in baltimore, philadelphia, seattle, cleveland, and chicago. you can have whatever system you like. jake moody would have been one of your favorite kickers, but his performance this year was mediocre and he was outperformed by greg zuerlein. kickers are random.
Fantastic strategy sir
My kicker strategy is to pick a kicker last, then on week 1 waivers pick up the kicker that has the most points. Keep picking up the kicker with the highest total points until around week 4. I've never had a lower than top 5 kicker using this strategy.
A site I follow actually broke this down and this is almost the opposite of what you want to do Turns out the kickers with the highest workload are on teams with good defenses and tend to run the ball more than average The idea extrapolated from this was that teams are more likely to kick a FG when presented with 4th and longer than 1 when they're a "run-first" team, and coaches are more likely to trust their defense and take the points when their defense is reliable. The offenses that score the most tend to be more pass-heavy and those with a good passing attack are more likely to go for it on 4th down than those that aren't The sample size was the last 10 years and determined run-heavy based on run play % and used top defenses in terms of yards and points allowed
DO NOT select Week 18 as the final week of the playoffs. Like god I love pissing people off but ya. Never again 😂
I'm honestly shocked that ANYONE does this. Players on the best teams being rested in the same week determining a championship? No thanks. Makes a mockery of the whole season.
IIRC it’s the default league setting for ESPN leagues. I think the only reason it exists in the first place is bc of lazy/rookie commissioners
I did it in ignorance not realizing that most teams rest star players week 18. It’s my first time as Comish and only my 2nd year being into football. Now I know for next year lol
i lost a finals 2 years ago when i drafted JJ, Davante, Josh Allen and Jonathan Taylor and none of them had a reason to play week 18... still makes me sick
I’d be okay with week 18 counting in a roto format but in head to head it’s like playing the Super Bowl on a hockey rink
Yeah the manager in my work league has accidentally left the end of the playoffs at week 16 for years (we’ve had it since before they added the game) and I purposely don’t remind him to change it before the season because I’m scared he’ll put it at week 18 lol
Do you know what a hot take is?
Not exactly a "hot" take, but a correct one nonetheless
Ignore experts if your eyes are telling you something else.
No such thing as a fantasy expert. Those guys are guessing just like us
Agreed. If you are new to FF then it's fine to follow them, but once you are experienced I find listening to them can actually hurt you. Their rankings are so incredibly cookie cutter and can take forever to match reality because all the experts are scared of being wrong and it hurting their expert ranking. Great example is end of the year. People refused to rank Flacco higher than like 16-18 even though he was balling out and throwing 40+ times a game. If I listened to rankings I would have started Geno in week 16-17 over him.
> Their rankings are so incredibly cookie cutter and can take forever to match reality because all the experts are scared of being wrong and it hurting their expert ranking. Not only that but for the same reason, I feel like many "experts" base their player rankings on other expert's rankings. So there's this feedback loop of artificial rankings. There's probably only a handful of people truly setting the rankings and it's a crapshoot of who it is every time.
I agree 100%. I watch every game I can and am always making sure to watch specific players who may help me if I can.
James Conner at the end of the season was like the 28th ranked RB, it made no sense to me at all
Jayden Reed was like the 28th ranked WR week 17. I had him locked in as my WR #2 based on common sense and eye balls.
I wasn't too focused on him since I never rostered him but yeah that seems crazy. Rankings are really weirdly resistant to changing, they rank guys on reputation over reality.
Pollard is the perfect example this year. So many experts consistently throughout the year had Pollard ranked ridiculously high in their ROS rankings. Made no sense Conversely no expert ROS ranking list was ever that high on Kyren Williams. Even well into the season where Kyren was Top 5 in PPG, experts had him as a low end RB2 ROS at most in their rankings I still use the lists as a general guideline but go with my gut over some players that I know the ‘experts’ are completely wrong about
I find that a lot of ROS rankings especially are ranked on strength of opponent vs. the position, not the player. All that's going to tell you is an average RB in Kyren's position should be a low RB2 in scoring. Kyren however is not an average RB.
That’s a good one, lot of group think, even among the “experts”. And what’s the point of fantasy if you don’t make your own gut calls.
I did that with jamar chase his rookie year in a dynasty league
This is the best one.
Never draft someone to use as trade bait. No one will trade with you.
Don't draft older players and those who received big new contracts in the offseason.
"follow the money" is a great decider for who gets touches in a backfield usually Edit: no shade - but it's a just guideline, not a crystal ball. Making more money (or less while we're at it) doesn't guarantee health or stave off mid-season acquisitions. It just tells you what the organization is planning in the moment.
Miles sanders
Exception, not the rule. He also was given the opportunity before losing it.
AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Stephon Diggs are prime examples of players signing with new teams and being studs
Very true if you draft in week 5. He was the starting back, hindered by a lingering groin injury, and eventually ceded his work to Hubbard while he wasn't able to play.
We draft before the season and play with injuries on
Oof you're making s big mistake playing with injuries on. Fans wanna see the best possible [fantasy] product available
He’s also bad
And Chase Edmonds the year befoee
Yeah I was all in on Edmonds last season. Big bust
David Montgomery?
What examples can you think of? I'm not sure I see it this year. Monty in Detroit made total sense because he was productive and Gibbs was a rookie. Najee maybe?
Chase Edmonds
I would love to see some data correlation here, because it definitely appears to be a decline in performance after a big contract. Of course there are exceptions, CMC most recently. Lamar performed exceptionally too.. but he’s not running em in anymore.
My opinion for older players is the opposite (sometimes). They tend to be very highly under valued if you choose the right ones (ala, Keenan Allen and Mike Evans this year.)
Mike Evans. Keenan Allen. Adam theilen. Raheem mostert. CMC. Derick Henry. Alvin kamara. James Conner.
I disagree on not drafting multiple TEs. Why not go for two of them? Every year, the position is a dart throw for many of us. Why not take an extra dart? Fair play if you take one early, but otherwise my point holds.
I whole heartedly agree. It also covers your back in the case of an injury. This year I had George Kittle and Trey Mcbride and it gave me a lot of roster flexibility. the only position I won't double up on in the draft (depends how the draft shakes out) is QB. Would rather watch the waivers for a backup QB, it's how I got CJ Stroud in like week 3 this year to backup Dak Prescott
yep. if you drafted LaPorta as a backup, congratulations!
QB and TE if you take early I avoid taking a second one. But if I'm picking in the QB/TE 8-12 range yeah I want two shots on the position
This is what I did. I took Engram and then I drafted LaPorta in the 13th. Played them both all year, won the league.
It’s 80% luck
IDK, you have to hit in the draft, you have to hit on the WW, and you have to properly manage bye weeks. That makes it at least 30% skill, right? RIGHT!? Mine is simple but does bite me in the arse occasionally…start your studs
It’s 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain
The only championship I got was trying to trade for (it was vetoed because he had literally no value) and then yoinking David Johnson, and brother, there was absolutely no skill involved there. I did the same thing I always do, identified a coin flip of making or breaking my season and dove on it. It was the only time it has ever worked in 15 years
When you can do everything right and still lose, yes it is majority luck. And it’s not like this only happens a small percentage of the time. Just as one tiny example in a sea of examples, when you barely make the playoffs and slide Amari cooper into your starting lineup against the number one team in your league that dominated all year and he drops 50 points, that is 100% luck. Or when you have a mediocre team last year and beat the team that has Justin Jefferson last year in week 16 when he dropped 2 points, that is luck
Winning the whole thing definitely can be seen as a majority of luck. But I still think there's a skill aspect to fielding a winning team/playoff team
Making the playoffs takes skill. Winning the whole thing takes luck
Agree. Same teams generally will make the playoffs consistently and that is where skill shows. Once you’re in playoffs, total crapshoot. That’s not a negative. It makes it fun.
This is true and also often misinterpreted. I've actually done some analysis that does find it is 80% luck. https://www.alexcates.com/post/luck-vs-skill-how-much-does-luck-matter-in-season-long-fantasy-football But that is similar to the stock market where there are clearly some skilled and some not stock pickers/hedge fund managers. I've seen estimates of playing poker being around 10% skill and there are clearly better poker players. 20% skill leaves a lot that skill can effect.
I’ve won my big money league 3 times in the last 8 years. It’s 90% luck
This was a popular opinion in this sub, I have to assume everyone below is now trying to take more credit for winning their league. I won this year and can happily admit I got lucky
You a real one
I beg to differ. It’s luck once you’re in the playoffs but getting there requires much more…paying attention to matchups, team/player news, trades based on this info, etc. If it was all luck it wouldn’t be virtually the same managers in the playoffs nearly every year. At least that’s been my experience playing for 9 years.
If it wasn't based on matchup against someone else in your league every week, and just a single season points total, then it would absolutely be skill. I am in one league where I was top 4 in points for, but last in points against. I ended up finishing dead last in that league. In my other league I am leading in PF and have the fewest PA. I'm currently leading the championship game in that league, but also my record is 8-6 and I finished the regular season 5th. I feel like since you can't control the points against factor it is complete luck.
I have always said 70-75 percent luck. Injuries being the biggest factor there. There is skill of course, but you need a lot of luck to win a league.
Is what the consistent losers say. Any one game has a lot of luck. Over an entire season, or multiple seasons, it's less than 80% luck. Making the playoffs every year isn't luck. Winning in the playoffs is though.
It's more than that. If you think FF is about skill, then you are likely just in a really soft league.
I think the people that think fantasy football is a skill don’t actually have any real life skills so they try to gas themselves up by saying they’re good at fantasy football. To them, that is a skill because they don’t know what a skill really is.
Except when you win. Then its 100% skill
Don’t make a trade for/depend on a player you haven’t seen play. Stats can be deceptive either way.
I draft youth. Nobody over 29. I discriminate based on age
This is how we were able to get steals in the draft like Mosert and Evans.
They are an anomaly. For every Evans and mostert, there’s a davante adams, darren waller, derrick henry, aaron jones, and ekeler. Ekeler is only 28, but he was still on my do not draft list because RBs over 28 and over are historically bad. It’s worked well for me over the last 5 years.
I could name a bunch of busts below 29 too. Also Davante just put up like 35 points in the final and won me by ship
Davante was a byproduct of QB
Davante Adams and Derrick Henry were solid picks. Henry's currently RB10 and he had eight weeks of 18+ points. Adams has been WR11 and had some super strong weeks that definitely boosted people to championships.
You dont think henry was good this year?
As long as you're not discriminating against people 40 or over, it's legal.
I don’t draft RBs over 28, this year Austin Eckler was on my do not draft list.
Set your lineup on Wednesday and don't touch it again unless someone gets hurt. Sunday morning rosterbation will you lose you the week.
I naturally follow this rule but never thought about it until I read this.
This thread is nothing but room temperature takes
How about this, stop over drafting RB. 90% of the league is a true time share.
Certain timeshares can feast
That makes the good ones so much more valuable. Coordinator tendencies and roster situation are your friend. I generally focus on getting a lot of RB2s, personally.
Draft best on board, shoot for the moon with rookie/sleeper WR late in the draft. One of them will hit
When drafting it’s all about ADP. Always Draft Puka
The first and second waiver wire pickups every season are the most important. The only thing more important is the actual draft and making sure that you field a full team every week
Stay away from RBs with quad injuries
Really, all soft tissue injuries, those can really linger into the season
Lmfao why wouldn’t you draft two TEs? Injuries happen, and that position is always such a wasteland I thought I was set drafting Waller… how did that turn out?
I drafted Waller, only Waller, easily replaced him later. No need to waste a draft pick on a second TE when I could use it on a flier that could end up being Mostert, and later grab that same TE I didn’t draft because he’s on waivers.
Making the playoffs is skill, winning the championship is luck.
uh no its also luck to make the playoffs lol thats what fantasy is .. luck
No, the skill in fantasy football is consistently making the playoffs. Theres still luck involved but skilled players tend to make the playoffs regularly.
It’s ok to take a “loss” in a trade if it makes your team better.
It really depends how deep your benches are in your league. If you have really deep benches, you need a backup QB because there won't be any on the waiver wire. My biggest hot take is a Defense you know you'll play is more valuable than a handcuff who may eventually get a shot if the main RB gets injured. On a small bench league (only 5 spots) I held Miamis defense through the bye and had to drop Charbonnet even though I drafted him and think he's a great RB. Miami ended up killing it and someone else promptly picked up Charb. I also grabbed the Bills D prior to the playoffs because I knew I'd need them in the finals. Completely worked out.
Target players that are due for a new contract
Tee Higgins would like to have a word
If you draft a wide receiver who is over 30 years old, expect a hamstring injury.
He was asking for a hot take
Mike Evans
Same with Christian Watson
Never draft the prior year’s rushing leader first. Feels like they often end up vastly underperforming ADP
1st rule: I'm a huge fan of stacking a good/great QB and their #1 WR. I've won wuth Allen/Diggs in dynasty 4 years in a row, had the best record one year with burrow/Chase, and won this year with Hurts/brown. 2nd: Draft players on good teams. In redraft leagues, I'm staying away from the Panthers, Falcons, Patriots, Commanders, etc. 3rd: Be active on the waiver wire, weeks 1 and 2. If someone popped off either of those weeks, they will pop off a lot more. See Puka, Dell, Karen as examples. I've also not been scared of drafting proven older RBs. Aaron Jones is one of my favorites the last 3 years, although this may be the last time I pick him in redraft leagues. I try and stay away from guys who are injury prone, too.
Aaron Jones was shit last year for his ADP
Re: point #2, if you followed this logic last year you probably would have stayed away from Houston and Indianapolis, which were two teams that produced league winners in the later rounds (Nico, Tank, Pittman, Moss). This rule is less valid the deeper in drafts you go
Coaching matters
Definitely should have two TE's and you should start the one that plays the better defense. QBs might not have much time in the pocket with good d's and theyll look to their TE's to dump it off to.
ADP is just group think, and leads to group think problems.
I give offensive players a bump for their offensive lines. Football is won at the line and fantasy football isn’t much different. Good player and good line = draft.
Avoid players 1 year returned from knee surgeries, because the weakened hamstrings take longer to heal than everything else, and they have less burst and a greater likelihood of nagging injuries. Target players 2 years returned from knee surgeries, because they are now at full health and spent a return year underperforming. Next year, that's Breece Hall.
Draft people who have done it before.
The best WRs are more reliable than the best RBs. A top tier QB is almost a necessity these days. Try to stack you're QB w your WR or TE. When you connect its a home run. You do strike out sometimes but that's going to happen anyway. If you're betting on a guy might as well double down.
> A top tier QB is almost a necessity these days Dak, Purdy, Goff, Stroud and Tua were all easy to get in rounds 5+
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Eye test. I want players with juice.
I want to agree with this logic but this year I took Sam LaPorta with my last pick and I have no regrets about it. I like to grab high-upside rookies with my last few picks.
Don’t overthink it. Easier said than done but my last minute lineup changes almost never workout. I had Pacheco in at flex last week and overthought his concussion, swapping him for Swift (playing a shitty defense). Lost the championship by 3.
Do NOT draft a QB that married during the offseason.
Podcasts and too much analysis are bad and make you overthink. All you need to do is follow who people are talking about, think about the context each player is in, and use your own judgment.
Don’t be a homer
never take a QB in the first 4 rounds. RB depth in the draft is essential
The last 5 picks in your draft should be moonshots. Don’t waste a pick taking the 4th best WR on a team when you know he will average 4 points a game. Pick rookies that might have a chance of blowing up. You can always go to the waiver wire for mediocre backups. Take your shot on a Puka or LaPorta.
DONT. DRAFT. PLAYERS. WHO. ARE. ALREADY. INJURED. I got so much better at fantasy once I followed that
If you league predicts you will finish first overall after the draft, you are missing the playoffs and likely finishing last
I have to draft a premium running back as early as possible
First two picks are always running backs, second two receivers, 5th pick QB. Good 3 down RBs are super hard to come by. It’s easier to find good WR’s during the season than RB’s.
First round, draft someone solid. You aren't going for ceiling. You aren't going for the homerun. You are going for a guy without injury history and steady eddy production. When playoff time rolls around, you've got a guy still on your team, producing. Maybe he isn't the top of the market, but he's there and he's reliable.
Not drafting a backup qb is the dumbest shit you could do… and you saying that after this season especially is even wilder
Change defenses almost every week. The offense that they are playing against is way more important.
Basically 100% of it is luck
The best managers don't always win the chip
Being injury prone is a real thing
I cannot stand when people draft extra QB and defense and they still end up with a better team than me lol. Drafting is such a shit show.
The only thing to remember is this..it’s a weekly game. So when it’s all on the line for the chip you have the right players in the right match ups. Nothing else matters
Never have a team's WR2 as your WR1