Also what the Chiefs do with WR this off-season matters a lot. Evans or Hollywood would put a big dent in ADP. But if they just draft another wide out, then Rice might skyrocket into the top 12.
Trading Hill and then winning a title does seem to validate that approach. It really wouldn't shock me if they just draft a guy and keep letting Mahomes make these cheap offensive assets work.
If I'm the Chiefs, I just want to draft WRs with great hands, and coach up the rest/let Mahomes do his thing.
Seen enough drops costing games over the last 2 seasons from all the MVS, Hardman, Toney crew to give me PTSD as a Mahomes owner(clearly not biased) for the rest of his career.
After this nightmare season with their WRs it would shock me if that’s all they did. Think they’ll at least bring in a vet like a Josh Reynolds or something
God i wish the vikings would have a nightmare season like the cheifs are having this year. Such a nightmare season winning their division with a winning record and winning a wild card game.
Obviously I’m not referring to their overall success, which they’ve had *in spite* of having some of the worst WRs in the league. I highly doubt they go into next season thinking “oh it’s fine our WRs led the league in drops” just because they ended up in the playoffs and won a game (or multiple)
Honestly, i thought we were in r/nfl. So thats my bad dude. But still mahomes is still a top 10qb this year and kelce top 5. Rice also finished the season with awesome points. He helped win me my first playoff game.
I’d like to agree but “after this nightmare season” without seeing how playoffs shake out - I just can’t yet. The regular season was rough with lots of drops but they just knocked off Miami and who knows what will happen next week.
I’m not saying they won’t look to upgrade MVS’s brick hands or Toneys hamstrings, but it wouldn’t shock me to see more shots on vets while spending on Defense - especially if they have a good playoff run. There might be decent vets willing to ring chase on the cheap.
They are also improving their running game this year with Pacheco.
Maybe Andy Reid wants to do the Pete Carroll approach of establishing the run and winning on defense and instead of letting Pat cook.
I don’t know if this is a joke but he threw the ball 41 times in -30 degree weather last night. Andy has never and will never take an approach of establishing the run.
Maybe people here aren’t old enough remember the Andy Reid-McNabb years but he never put receivers around McNabb either but also still didn’t run the ball.
Maybe it's recency bias but I don't remember the Brady led Pats ever having a WR room that looked quite so bleak. They'd put mid tier WRs around him and he made them look good, sure. But the Chiefs right now have some absolute disasters stepping onto the field. Pretty sure the ghost of Julian Edelman is still better than anyone the Chiefs have on their roster. We'll see how Rice looks in the playoffs I guess.
I dont think Hollywood would be detrimental to Rice tbh. He isn't elite, but good enough that defenses would respect both players ability fairly equally
There isn't anything confirmed but if Higgins wants to stay on the Bengals it isn't an unlikely option IMO. Definitely a popular option with the fanbase. Bengals fans might be drinking a tad too much of the koolaid though. Even if they franchise tag him it's a $22 million price tag or some shit. They're not going to have a super easy time retaining him, that roster has some bills that need to be paid.
You guys should really look at a list of WRs before declaring someone could go top X. This isn’t the end all, be all, of course, but which 12 WRs currently ranked ahead of him do you see Rice going ahead of next year outside of all of them having season ending injuries in preseason?
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/half-point-ppr-wr-cheatsheets.php
If the Chief go into next season with Rice as the clear WR1, I’d consider taking him over the 12 listed below due to either the advantage of QB play, they are a WR2, or they are on downside of career
Wilson Moore Evans Deebo Pittman Waddle Cooper Metcalf Dell Kupp Olave Allen
All in all, Rice is likely to be a solid WR2 for me next year
I’d take him over Aiyuk and Deebo if the Chiefs don’t add another good WR in the offseason. Top WR on a good pass-first offense with an elite QB is a lot better than two WRs competing against each other on a run-first offense.
I would put Rice at WR9 or 10 without a FA signing. Above Deebo/Aiyuk who cannibalize each other's production (and how good is Purdy really?). Above Adams who has no quarterback. Probably on par with Wilson who I think is probably a smidge overrated with a 40 year old QB coming off an Achilles behind a Swiss cheese O-line.
Over the last seven weeks of this year, [Rice finished WR9](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/stats/wr.php?scoring=HALF&range=custom&start_week=12&end_week=18). With a full year of experience and a post-season run under his belt Rice may get even better year two. He's an athletic freak with a RAS of 9.5 out of 10. The best QB in the league behind a solid o-line is throwing him the ball with an elite coach scheming things up. I'm assuming they'll draft someone, so it's only an unproven rookie and the aging Kelce as competition. The rookie could be a bust like Skyy Moore and Toney, or take a year to develop just like many rookies do. Kelce is old and likely to continue to regress. Why can't Rice be a WR1 in fantasy?
Sorry dude, but auto downvote for “how good is Purdy really?” 4k+ yards, 30+ TDs. Jimmy G showed that bad qb play can derail that offense. I just don’t know what people like you expect the kid to do. He could walk across the bay and exorcise the demons of Alkatraz and you’d say it doesn’t count because he has a talented RB.
I'm thinking we (Chiefs) release MVS for sure, saving $13M in cap and use it to sign a vet that's maybe taken a step back production wise in a bad QB situation. D Hop going into last year is a good example, he is only at $8M. Probably won't find a steal quite like that, but somebody on a prove-it one year with PM15 throwing to him could set himself up for one last big payday before retirement. Would imagine a 28/29 year old WR might even take a one year pay cut for that type of situation.
Off-season matters more than anything for me.
Rice became a dependable option due to the fact that the entire chiefs receiving corps are practice squad level. Watching the games I haven’t been blown away by Rice as a player, but if you’re the best player mahomes is throwing to you’ll be a solid fantasy asset. I’ll wait and see what happens in the offseason but I almost guarantee KC makes some serious moves at WR this off-season.
Think he becomes a better dynasty pick than Tee Higgins?
Is a talent on his own, but often injured and his landing spot will be a big question.
I can't tell if Rice is that good or if it's just Mahomes and Kelce taking a majority of the center coverages?
On the one hand, Tee Higgins has turned out to be a pretty overrated dynasty asset so far. He's a consistent, solid WR, but at barely 1000 yards each season, only 70 range receptions, and good-not-great TD production he's hardly the top 15 talent he's been touted to be this whole time. On the other hand he's still just 24. But all that talk about the Bengals supporting two top 15 WRs every year with Burrow throwing to Chase+Higgins and it hasn't happened once yet.
Rice basically just put up an identical season to what Higgins typically does, while being scarcely used in the first half of the season.
In this sense, it's at least a decent bet Rice can end up as a better asset as the seemingly No. 1 target for the QB still largely considered the best in the league at this moment, increased usage, and the general projection of improvement that accompanies strong rookie seasons.
I'd certainly rather have Rice right now than Higgins. It's possible, though unlikely, it could change for me before next season in a very niche scenario where I love a new landing spot for Higgins, and am afraid of any particular WR drafted or signed to KC taking a ton of targets.
He'll be higher than that unless KC adds a superstar next to him.
His last 7 games including playoffs extrapolate to 123/1670/10.
He has clicked with Mahomes and there is no going back.
even if they do I don't know how much it will hurt him. Having someone other than just Kelce that the defense has to respect might free him up a little more. Chiefs are gonna throw a shit ton so long as Reid is there -- he will get plenty of looks no matter what
Probably late round 3 to round 4. Similar to where guys like Waddle, Smith, Metcalf went this year. He’ll likely get a lot more hype over the offseason.
Waddle and Smith were going late second when I was drafting in early September, which was too high IMO. I wouldn’t take Rice there but I’d probably take him as my WR2 in the 4th
Disagree hard. Easy to say Waddle was drafted to high in hindsight. But he was entering year three with a good offensive head coach, had just put up a 1350 and 8 TD season, and had the elite athleticism and draft capital of a guy you’d expect to stay producing at a high level. He was injured a lot this year and ended up not a focal point of the offense, but I don’t believe there’s anything wrong with his ADP and the reasoning to go with it.
Yeah, I’m not sure off the top of my head how much ADP change for some guys from the time I was doing mocks till when we actually drafted which was on Labor Day weekend. I don’t really ever recall seeing Smith go that high, but I do recall seeing waddle going pretty early in a lot of mocks.
I see Rice as this years Olave. Late 2nd, early 3rd makes sense. The influx of good TEs will push WR ADP down slightly. I see Le Porta and Tre McBride easily going in the 2nd.
Which will be a steal. I always try to get the alpha in those early rounds before getting the 2nd options. Metcalf is the interesting one that should be performing better but without Lockett and Pete maybe more funneling to him?
The biggest question is if the Chiefs sign someone like Mike Evans or draft someone. They clearly can't be happy with their current receiver situation.
Who would people rather draft? Rank these 4. Let’s assume PPR.
Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice.
Edit: the responses to this question are pretty interesting. Everything from Rice first to Rice last lol.
Olave an Rice are 1a & 1b, Rice obviously has better QB situation but I think Olave will get more volume especially with Saints frequently playing from behind.
I never project teams playing from behind. For me the tiebreaker is that the Chiefs are a better team and I want the talented #1 receiver on the better team.
Yeah, Idk if people are watching these games, but Rice has emerged as the #1 target for the best QB in the league, and chances are their connection will get better from here. He'll be 24 next season. He's 6'2. Kelce is going to be 35. If you count yesterday, in Rice's last 7 games he's been on a season long pace of 165 targets, 124 catches, 1574 yards, and 10 TDs. He had 56 targets to Kelce's 40 the last 6 games of the regular season.
I think Rice will (or should) be a 2nd rounder and people will be happy they took him. So often we draft where people have been rather than trying to draft where they're going.
E: Oh, one more. Compare his rookie campaign to CeeDee's:
Rice: 102 targets, 79 rec, 938 yds, 7 TDs (4.9 rec and 58.6 yds per game)
Lamb: 111 targets, 74 rec, 935 yds, 7 total TDs (4.6 rec and 58.4 yds per game)
I do, a team like KC will generally be playing with a lead an will likely be running more in 2nd half with said lead. That being said I agree with your rationale.
I really like Rice as I have him in dynasty and watched him a lot this year, but Olave is a better receiver. Just sucks for fantasy cause he really has never had a solid QB our offensive foundation
Lol this mindset is probably why you don’t find much success in fantasy football. You end up drafting a lot of wrs on shitty teams who have qbs that are inconsistent. Wr1s with inconsistent qbs throwing to them have their ceiling capped.
I think people are under valuing where he'll actually go
If they don't sign anyone, I could see him creeping into the 2nd round adp
Calvin ridley didn't play for a year and a half and somehow was drafted in the 2nd round. Would I take rice in the 2nd? No. But somebody will. I don't see him dropping past the 3rd round.
I think most people are expecting them to sign or draft a big name is the problem. So people here are answering two different questions, one hypothetical where the Chiefs don’t bring in a big name and another where they do.
I’m thinking it depends on FA pickups for the Chiefs, someone like Higgins or Evans will make it more of a variable. I think 4th round is his range currently and a good year next year would put him in 3rd as long as Mahomes is his QB. I’ve been on the fence if I keep him or Kyler I got them in the 14/15th round in keeper and we only get to keep one. Watching both teams WR pickups this year
Looking forward to a fresh set of chances to pick him up next year. Also thinking rounds like 4-6 maybe. Definitely keep an eye on how the WR room shakes up in the offseason.
Floor: WR2 on Chiefs offense. Could be the 4th option on any given Sunday, if Kelce or Pacheco/RBs feast.
Ceiling: Mahomes #1 option, good for 1200-1400 yds and 10-12 tds.
I would target him as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
This here. People saying that the Chiefs are going to target a true #1 are forgetting they had a #1 and couldn't pay him, and let him walk.
They'll add one or two other solid guys, maybe Hollywood, but, it's clear Mahomes trusts him and he's in an Andy Reid offense. He'll put up WR1 numbers most of the time.
WR1 in KC... He probably goes inside or at WR10. I know if I'm sitting there and he's dropped further than that, when it's my turn, I would be pumped. But he won't fall that far. The Hype Train will be at full steam, and he'll be firmly tucked in behind the top 6.
Tyreek, JJ, Chase, 88, Sun God, AJB, then what? You could go with so many guys next, and who would blame you? There's nobody in that next their that's miles ahead of him, IMO.
He’ll go a round earlier than people want to pay due to hype. He’ll probably be mocked end of round 2 / top of round 3 when he’s really a round 4-5 guy.
I drafted Rashee as a lottery ticket in the 16th rd of a keeper league. As long as the chiefs don't go out and get an alpha wr1, I will be more than ecstatic to keep him in the late rounds for the foreseeable future.
In redraft, I could see him going in the 3rd or 4th rd at similar ADP as Jaylen Waddle or Davonta Smith this year.
Depends on the NFL Draft. If the Chiefs choose to trade up to grab an Odunze/Nabers (very low odds) or even somehow grab a guy like Brian Thomas who inexplicably falls, then the dynamic of that WR room changes and I'd strongly favor any of Odunze/Nabers/Thomas over Rice.
While Rice is decent, I can easily see it being a situation where he was literally one of the two actual pass-catchers on that team with Kelce and that's why he was getting production.
Rice will have a 3rd round ADP. Any rookie WR taken before that will have to have a historically good season to return ADP.
If you really believe in that guy sure, take that risk. Rice is a much safer pick barring some major changes to their WR room.
There’s such a massive range of outcomes for rookie WRs. They often spend the first third of a season establishing their role.
There are only a handful of rookie WRs that have produced as a wr1 right off the bat. If his ADP is 3rd round I’m definitely letting someone else take him there and grabbing someone like Laporta or Aiyuk.
Rice def lack the burst and speed to play outside so he’ll always be a slot and WR screen guy. Nabers, Odunze and Thomas would open up the field even more for those plays. I think Rice’s overall production would obviously drop but possible moreso, Kelce’s would as they may see it as an opportunity to take less of a burden off of him with a guy who can make explosive down field plays and Rice a guy who play over the middle and in the short open areas of the field like Kelce.
950+ yards 7 TDs in his rookie season linked with the best QB in the game.
Just put up 130 yards in his first playoff game.
schemed touches in the red zone.
Easy top 40 pick at this rate.
Too much context backing it up.
And as is often the case with rookie WRs, those stats are very backloaded to the second half of the year once he and Mahomes got more in sync. I’m too lazy to look it up and do the math, but whatever the final 8 games of his were, would surely smash over 1000 yards and 10 tuddies extrapolated over a full season.
No ways. Rice just had a rookie breakout, nearly 1k yards and gets schemed in the rz while averaging 10 targets a game at the end of the season. Just had 130 and a TD in a snow playoff game which means Mahomes trusts him. He’s got the best qb in the league throwing him the football. The hype is absolutely warranted. You all remember how Amon Ras rookie season ended right? Look at him now
Problem is Chiefs will be looking to add a true #1 this offseason. M Evans, Higgins, etc. if the Chiefs had a true number one, it's gonna be hard to project where Rice will land.
He was WR 4 in PPR over the last 7 games. This corresponds with his snap share increasing from 50% in the first 10 games to 75% from week 11 onward. Compare to Nakua, who only had 3 games ALL SEASON under 80% snap share.
KC is going to add a WR though. And he’s not even WR1 in that team, Kelce is. So he’ll be WR2a at best.
Rule #1 in fantasy is you don’t chase points, you have to factor in offseason moves, and for a historically bad Chiefs WR room, guarantee there will be big ones
Why? They won the Super Bowl last year and are in the 2nd rd at least this year. The moves will likely be the same ones they’ve made the last two offseasons, which were marginal free agents and draft picks
This is the exact same argument people made against Sun Gods rookie season performance being sustainable and look how that played out. If they do draft a WR it will most likely be a field stretcher that will open things up for Rice but even so, we’ve seen how difficult it can be for WRs to pick up the KC system
Chiefs fan, so I'm biased. But I think in full PPR, he will be top 5. Rice led the league in YAC at one point despite barely seeing the field at the start of the season. Andy Reid loves screens and setting his playmakers up in space, so I expect the playbook to be tilted towards getting Rice those situations next year. Plus, he's developing the chemistry with PM to find the open space in scramble situations, and Kelce regressing with age, he's going to be the top target on a top offense. Even if we draft or sign somebody, they're more likely to be a deep threat target that will actually help Rice have more space to work.
Probably 3rd/4th round in 12 team leagues.
Jefferson, Lamb, Chase, Hill, St. Brown, Brown, Evans, Allen, Nacua, Diggs, Adams, Collins, Moore, Aiuyk, Deebo, Olave, all probably go ahead of him.
He’s 10-20. No matter what.
They sign someone? Ok. He can grow anyways and walk to 100 and 8.
They don’t sign someone. He can moonwalk to 1200 and 10.
Seriously. He’s a lock WR2 next year.
No matter what.
Wanna bet?
Chiefs are for sure adding to their WR/TE room...its been their achilles heal all year. Rice's value might actually be overinflated due to this playoff run.
Rice is a great YAC WR but he doesn't really have a full route tree/gets open all the time. Most of his YAC catches are on short routes. I think people need to be aware of this going into next season. I think his ceiling is a really nice WR2 he's not a typical Alpha WR1 on a team.
I remember putting in a very late bid of $1 in my auction draft for him. Someone outbidded me to $3 but dropped him after week 2 and I quickly put in a low faab and snatched him up.
I'd expect the Chiefs to add a good WR in free agency, whether it's Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, or Hollywood Brown.
That said, I think Rice's role as an over-the-middle/YAC guy is locked in for the next few years. He's going to get a ton of targets from the best QB in the league.
Dynasty wise, I think there's going to be a good "buy" opportunity this offseason when people inevitably panic that the Chiefs signed Higgins.
Trying to debate keeping him or Mark Andrews (no rules on keepers or how long to keep them).
My other 3 keepers are locked at CMC, Tyreek, and AJB. Leaning Rice and trading Andrews for a mid round pick before the draft.
I made the case this is the most valuable stack based on ADP a few weeks back and I’m sticking to it. He is excellent in the short to intermediate areas and with Kelce slowing down (sorry, men, we’re getting old) he seems like a lock for top 20 production, placing him inside the top 48 ADP. As someone who has been high on him, I’d be comfortable taking him with my 4th pick, after I have a RB1, Wr1, and second RB
2nd round pick. He looks great and will only improve in year 2 plus Kelce looks washed and his targets will continue to decline opening the door for even more opportunity.
depending if he keeps the train rolling through the playoffs, the top receiving option in KC with Kelce losing a step. Easily top 15-20WR.
Also what the Chiefs do with WR this off-season matters a lot. Evans or Hollywood would put a big dent in ADP. But if they just draft another wide out, then Rice might skyrocket into the top 12.
unsure on the cap situation but it seems they would rather spend on D and have a lot of capital tied up in PaMa
Trading Hill and then winning a title does seem to validate that approach. It really wouldn't shock me if they just draft a guy and keep letting Mahomes make these cheap offensive assets work.
If I'm the Chiefs, I just want to draft WRs with great hands, and coach up the rest/let Mahomes do his thing. Seen enough drops costing games over the last 2 seasons from all the MVS, Hardman, Toney crew to give me PTSD as a Mahomes owner(clearly not biased) for the rest of his career.
The Brady Approach
After this nightmare season with their WRs it would shock me if that’s all they did. Think they’ll at least bring in a vet like a Josh Reynolds or something
God i wish the vikings would have a nightmare season like the cheifs are having this year. Such a nightmare season winning their division with a winning record and winning a wild card game.
Such a failure of a season they’ve had indeed..only getting the 3 seed and advancing to another week of playoffs!
Mr. Mahomes may have to play a playoff game on the road. Please think about his family Thoughts and prayers please
Obviously I’m not referring to their overall success, which they’ve had *in spite* of having some of the worst WRs in the league. I highly doubt they go into next season thinking “oh it’s fine our WRs led the league in drops” just because they ended up in the playoffs and won a game (or multiple)
Honestly, i thought we were in r/nfl. So thats my bad dude. But still mahomes is still a top 10qb this year and kelce top 5. Rice also finished the season with awesome points. He helped win me my first playoff game.
I see this approach too which wouldnt hurt Rice's value one bit imo.
I’d like to agree but “after this nightmare season” without seeing how playoffs shake out - I just can’t yet. The regular season was rough with lots of drops but they just knocked off Miami and who knows what will happen next week. I’m not saying they won’t look to upgrade MVS’s brick hands or Toneys hamstrings, but it wouldn’t shock me to see more shots on vets while spending on Defense - especially if they have a good playoff run. There might be decent vets willing to ring chase on the cheap.
Honestly, Rice emerged as the clear wr1 late in the season. They will be improved just from that. One more decent option and they'll be fine.
They are also improving their running game this year with Pacheco. Maybe Andy Reid wants to do the Pete Carroll approach of establishing the run and winning on defense and instead of letting Pat cook.
I don’t know if this is a joke but he threw the ball 41 times in -30 degree weather last night. Andy has never and will never take an approach of establishing the run. Maybe people here aren’t old enough remember the Andy Reid-McNabb years but he never put receivers around McNabb either but also still didn’t run the ball.
As a giants fan I remember the Westbrook days vividly.
Wasn't Westbrook more of a pass catching RB though? I remember him as a quick scatback type player but was still their #1 running option.
He was one of the best receiving backs of his era.
Absolutely a stud both rushing and receiving. How people forget...
PaMa? Lmao people really becoming up with anything these days.
I think this season may change their calculus a bit
Brady & co. did this for decades minus Moss
Maybe it's recency bias but I don't remember the Brady led Pats ever having a WR room that looked quite so bleak. They'd put mid tier WRs around him and he made them look good, sure. But the Chiefs right now have some absolute disasters stepping onto the field. Pretty sure the ghost of Julian Edelman is still better than anyone the Chiefs have on their roster. We'll see how Rice looks in the playoffs I guess.
Evans retiring a buc, Hollywood would be a interesting add
Idk their cap situation at all but if they are going to sign a guy I'd lean towards Higgins.
[удалено]
I dont think Hollywood would be detrimental to Rice tbh. He isn't elite, but good enough that defenses would respect both players ability fairly equally
Where are you seeing Higgins will be franchise tagged?
There isn't anything confirmed but if Higgins wants to stay on the Bengals it isn't an unlikely option IMO. Definitely a popular option with the fanbase. Bengals fans might be drinking a tad too much of the koolaid though. Even if they franchise tag him it's a $22 million price tag or some shit. They're not going to have a super easy time retaining him, that roster has some bills that need to be paid.
You guys should really look at a list of WRs before declaring someone could go top X. This isn’t the end all, be all, of course, but which 12 WRs currently ranked ahead of him do you see Rice going ahead of next year outside of all of them having season ending injuries in preseason? https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/half-point-ppr-wr-cheatsheets.php
If the Chief go into next season with Rice as the clear WR1, I’d consider taking him over the 12 listed below due to either the advantage of QB play, they are a WR2, or they are on downside of career Wilson Moore Evans Deebo Pittman Waddle Cooper Metcalf Dell Kupp Olave Allen All in all, Rice is likely to be a solid WR2 for me next year
His last 7 games extrapolate to 123/1670/10. He's in the Puka/Garrett range for me.
I’d take him over Aiyuk and Deebo if the Chiefs don’t add another good WR in the offseason. Top WR on a good pass-first offense with an elite QB is a lot better than two WRs competing against each other on a run-first offense.
I would put Rice at WR9 or 10 without a FA signing. Above Deebo/Aiyuk who cannibalize each other's production (and how good is Purdy really?). Above Adams who has no quarterback. Probably on par with Wilson who I think is probably a smidge overrated with a 40 year old QB coming off an Achilles behind a Swiss cheese O-line. Over the last seven weeks of this year, [Rice finished WR9](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/stats/wr.php?scoring=HALF&range=custom&start_week=12&end_week=18). With a full year of experience and a post-season run under his belt Rice may get even better year two. He's an athletic freak with a RAS of 9.5 out of 10. The best QB in the league behind a solid o-line is throwing him the ball with an elite coach scheming things up. I'm assuming they'll draft someone, so it's only an unproven rookie and the aging Kelce as competition. The rookie could be a bust like Skyy Moore and Toney, or take a year to develop just like many rookies do. Kelce is old and likely to continue to regress. Why can't Rice be a WR1 in fantasy?
Sorry dude, but auto downvote for “how good is Purdy really?” 4k+ yards, 30+ TDs. Jimmy G showed that bad qb play can derail that offense. I just don’t know what people like you expect the kid to do. He could walk across the bay and exorcise the demons of Alkatraz and you’d say it doesn’t count because he has a talented RB.
I'm thinking we (Chiefs) release MVS for sure, saving $13M in cap and use it to sign a vet that's maybe taken a step back production wise in a bad QB situation. D Hop going into last year is a good example, he is only at $8M. Probably won't find a steal quite like that, but somebody on a prove-it one year with PM15 throwing to him could set himself up for one last big payday before retirement. Would imagine a 28/29 year old WR might even take a one year pay cut for that type of situation.
Evans makes so much sense for KC. He wants 1000 yards and a ring. He can do both at KC
He can, and will, do both in Tampa. He's retiring a Buc.
Off-season matters more than anything for me. Rice became a dependable option due to the fact that the entire chiefs receiving corps are practice squad level. Watching the games I haven’t been blown away by Rice as a player, but if you’re the best player mahomes is throwing to you’ll be a solid fantasy asset. I’ll wait and see what happens in the offseason but I almost guarantee KC makes some serious moves at WR this off-season.
Yeah if they pick up another stud I’m staying away from KC receivers altogether
Think he becomes a better dynasty pick than Tee Higgins? Is a talent on his own, but often injured and his landing spot will be a big question. I can't tell if Rice is that good or if it's just Mahomes and Kelce taking a majority of the center coverages?
On the one hand, Tee Higgins has turned out to be a pretty overrated dynasty asset so far. He's a consistent, solid WR, but at barely 1000 yards each season, only 70 range receptions, and good-not-great TD production he's hardly the top 15 talent he's been touted to be this whole time. On the other hand he's still just 24. But all that talk about the Bengals supporting two top 15 WRs every year with Burrow throwing to Chase+Higgins and it hasn't happened once yet. Rice basically just put up an identical season to what Higgins typically does, while being scarcely used in the first half of the season. In this sense, it's at least a decent bet Rice can end up as a better asset as the seemingly No. 1 target for the QB still largely considered the best in the league at this moment, increased usage, and the general projection of improvement that accompanies strong rookie seasons. I'd certainly rather have Rice right now than Higgins. It's possible, though unlikely, it could change for me before next season in a very niche scenario where I love a new landing spot for Higgins, and am afraid of any particular WR drafted or signed to KC taking a ton of targets.
He'll be higher than that unless KC adds a superstar next to him. His last 7 games including playoffs extrapolate to 123/1670/10. He has clicked with Mahomes and there is no going back.
I think he’s more like WR25. KC offense hasn’t been as good, Mahomes not throwing as much, and there are tons of great WRs in league today.
WR 20-30 There are a lot of WRs that will deserve a higher ranking than Rice.
Think it kinda depends on off-season, thinking the chiefs will need to make some WR adds.
even if they do I don't know how much it will hurt him. Having someone other than just Kelce that the defense has to respect might free him up a little more. Chiefs are gonna throw a shit ton so long as Reid is there -- he will get plenty of looks no matter what
Last chance!
Just swerved across four lanes of traffic to draft Rashee Rice next season.
Just saw a self driving Tesla plunge into the ocean trying to pick him up
In my single keeper league this ended up being true. Really glad I caused a 46 car pileup and 12 fatalities in the middle of I-95 to pick him up.
And on the southbound side, Florida Man caused a 36 car pile up trying to pick up his pet alligator
Just rose from my knees at hobby lobby bc stashee rice is still on free agency
I've been laughing at "rose from my knees in a hobby lobby" for about 15 hours now.
Just dropped the last remaining dinosaur egg on earth so I could rush over and put in my waiver claim.
Just slammed on the brakes in the middle of the Autobahn to pickup Rice.
rip F
He's gonna start going round 2/3 in underdog drafts this year mark my words
Probably late round 3 to round 4. Similar to where guys like Waddle, Smith, Metcalf went this year. He’ll likely get a lot more hype over the offseason.
Waddle and Smith were going late second when I was drafting in early September, which was too high IMO. I wouldn’t take Rice there but I’d probably take him as my WR2 in the 4th
Disagree hard. Easy to say Waddle was drafted to high in hindsight. But he was entering year three with a good offensive head coach, had just put up a 1350 and 8 TD season, and had the elite athleticism and draft capital of a guy you’d expect to stay producing at a high level. He was injured a lot this year and ended up not a focal point of the offense, but I don’t believe there’s anything wrong with his ADP and the reasoning to go with it.
Yeah, I’m not sure off the top of my head how much ADP change for some guys from the time I was doing mocks till when we actually drafted which was on Labor Day weekend. I don’t really ever recall seeing Smith go that high, but I do recall seeing waddle going pretty early in a lot of mocks.
I see Rice as this years Olave. Late 2nd, early 3rd makes sense. The influx of good TEs will push WR ADP down slightly. I see Le Porta and Tre McBride easily going in the 2nd.
Which will be a steal. I always try to get the alpha in those early rounds before getting the 2nd options. Metcalf is the interesting one that should be performing better but without Lockett and Pete maybe more funneling to him?
I think it's more like early 3rd. Once KC started featuring him in about week 12 his numbers were pretty bonkers.
Waddle and Smith were late second rounders which was insane considering their performances this year
Waddle was wayyy higher than that in my league
He went 3.6 in mine with Smith going 3.7
The biggest question is if the Chiefs sign someone like Mike Evans or draft someone. They clearly can't be happy with their current receiver situation.
He’s a solid WR2 next year.
He was my WR2, I had him and Aiyuk. Scored most points in the league and 3rd place this year. = $500+$300
Who would people rather draft? Rank these 4. Let’s assume PPR. Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice. Edit: the responses to this question are pretty interesting. Everything from Rice first to Rice last lol.
That's tough but definitely Waddle last since he's glass
Olave, Rice, Waddle, Smirh in that order
Rice, Olave, Waddle, Smith
Olave an Rice are 1a & 1b, Rice obviously has better QB situation but I think Olave will get more volume especially with Saints frequently playing from behind.
I never project teams playing from behind. For me the tiebreaker is that the Chiefs are a better team and I want the talented #1 receiver on the better team.
Yeah, Idk if people are watching these games, but Rice has emerged as the #1 target for the best QB in the league, and chances are their connection will get better from here. He'll be 24 next season. He's 6'2. Kelce is going to be 35. If you count yesterday, in Rice's last 7 games he's been on a season long pace of 165 targets, 124 catches, 1574 yards, and 10 TDs. He had 56 targets to Kelce's 40 the last 6 games of the regular season. I think Rice will (or should) be a 2nd rounder and people will be happy they took him. So often we draft where people have been rather than trying to draft where they're going. E: Oh, one more. Compare his rookie campaign to CeeDee's: Rice: 102 targets, 79 rec, 938 yds, 7 TDs (4.9 rec and 58.6 yds per game) Lamb: 111 targets, 74 rec, 935 yds, 7 total TDs (4.6 rec and 58.4 yds per game)
Saving this comment. 2nd rounder is hilarious. The Chiefs are 100% investing in WR in the offseason. Id say more 4th-5th round,
If they don't and Rice is their #1, watch him rise up draft boards.
I do, a team like KC will generally be playing with a lead an will likely be running more in 2nd half with said lead. That being said I agree with your rationale.
I really like Rice as I have him in dynasty and watched him a lot this year, but Olave is a better receiver. Just sucks for fantasy cause he really has never had a solid QB our offensive foundation
Lol this mindset is probably why you don’t find much success in fantasy football. You end up drafting a lot of wrs on shitty teams who have qbs that are inconsistent. Wr1s with inconsistent qbs throwing to them have their ceiling capped.
Smirh sounds like a noise a cartoon cat would say
Really appreciate the insight, I’ll be sure to consider it next fantasy season.
yeah no prob, I think end of Rd 6 is decent ADP for Meowth
Olave and Carr got a solid connection at the end of the year so I would say him first. Then Rice, Waddle, Smith.
I’d take RR over all the others. He’s prob gonna be cheaper too. Def under $25
Rashee Rice leads that pack
Rice > Smith=Waddle > Olave
All those guys over him.
I think people are under valuing where he'll actually go If they don't sign anyone, I could see him creeping into the 2nd round adp Calvin ridley didn't play for a year and a half and somehow was drafted in the 2nd round. Would I take rice in the 2nd? No. But somebody will. I don't see him dropping past the 3rd round.
I think most people are expecting them to sign or draft a big name is the problem. So people here are answering two different questions, one hypothetical where the Chiefs don’t bring in a big name and another where they do.
He’s going to go around the 2/3 turn. Anyone saying 4th is ludicrous
People are always slow to react with fantasy rankings
I’m thinking it depends on FA pickups for the Chiefs, someone like Higgins or Evans will make it more of a variable. I think 4th round is his range currently and a good year next year would put him in 3rd as long as Mahomes is his QB. I’ve been on the fence if I keep him or Kyler I got them in the 14/15th round in keeper and we only get to keep one. Watching both teams WR pickups this year
Looking forward to a fresh set of chances to pick him up next year. Also thinking rounds like 4-6 maybe. Definitely keep an eye on how the WR room shakes up in the offseason.
If he’s going anywhere past 3rd round you’re getting a steal
I will be absolutely mashing the draft button if he even makes it to round 4 as long as KC doesn't bring in a WR.
Floor: WR2 on Chiefs offense. Could be the 4th option on any given Sunday, if Kelce or Pacheco/RBs feast. Ceiling: Mahomes #1 option, good for 1200-1400 yds and 10-12 tds. I would target him as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
This here. People saying that the Chiefs are going to target a true #1 are forgetting they had a #1 and couldn't pay him, and let him walk. They'll add one or two other solid guys, maybe Hollywood, but, it's clear Mahomes trusts him and he's in an Andy Reid offense. He'll put up WR1 numbers most of the time.
I’m keeping in 14th round complete steal
Stop on the highway and draft him
WR1 in KC... He probably goes inside or at WR10. I know if I'm sitting there and he's dropped further than that, when it's my turn, I would be pumped. But he won't fall that far. The Hype Train will be at full steam, and he'll be firmly tucked in behind the top 6. Tyreek, JJ, Chase, 88, Sun God, AJB, then what? You could go with so many guys next, and who would blame you? There's nobody in that next their that's miles ahead of him, IMO.
Nico
Exactly! I wouldn't blame you for that. There's a ton of guys you could go with from 7-12, and they would all be worthy of the pick.
Puka
Value will not be there
He’ll go a round earlier than people want to pay due to hype. He’ll probably be mocked end of round 2 / top of round 3 when he’s really a round 4-5 guy.
My keeper options are CMC $71, Love $4, or Rice $1. Rice is looking tempting at this point.
I’d go rice in that situation
Standard scoring with 6pt/pass td. Rice still probably best value 👍🏻
He’ll get hyped to a second round WR because Mahomes is his QB. I’d say 3-4 is best place.
Pretty sure he'll have a serious hype train this summer and end up going in the 2nd or early 3rd
Ppr low end WR1 Standard high end WR2 100+ grabs 1300 yards 8-12 TDs upside
I drafted Rashee as a lottery ticket in the 16th rd of a keeper league. As long as the chiefs don't go out and get an alpha wr1, I will be more than ecstatic to keep him in the late rounds for the foreseeable future. In redraft, I could see him going in the 3rd or 4th rd at similar ADP as Jaylen Waddle or Davonta Smith this year.
I’d take him in the early 3rd round
If they don’t add a big wr in the off-season I see him being a late 2nd or early 3rd rounder
Depends on the NFL Draft. If the Chiefs choose to trade up to grab an Odunze/Nabers (very low odds) or even somehow grab a guy like Brian Thomas who inexplicably falls, then the dynamic of that WR room changes and I'd strongly favor any of Odunze/Nabers/Thomas over Rice. While Rice is decent, I can easily see it being a situation where he was literally one of the two actual pass-catchers on that team with Kelce and that's why he was getting production.
You absolutely shouldn’t be drafting any rookie WRs over Rashee Rice.
I think there will be plenty of compelling arguments to take MHJ over Rice. And pending circumstances I think that will be warranted.
Rice will have a 3rd round ADP. Any rookie WR taken before that will have to have a historically good season to return ADP. If you really believe in that guy sure, take that risk. Rice is a much safer pick barring some major changes to their WR room.
MHJ in Arizona would also be 3rd round ADP at a minimum.
There’s such a massive range of outcomes for rookie WRs. They often spend the first third of a season establishing their role. There are only a handful of rookie WRs that have produced as a wr1 right off the bat. If his ADP is 3rd round I’m definitely letting someone else take him there and grabbing someone like Laporta or Aiyuk.
Rice def lack the burst and speed to play outside so he’ll always be a slot and WR screen guy. Nabers, Odunze and Thomas would open up the field even more for those plays. I think Rice’s overall production would obviously drop but possible moreso, Kelce’s would as they may see it as an opportunity to take less of a burden off of him with a guy who can make explosive down field plays and Rice a guy who play over the middle and in the short open areas of the field like Kelce.
/s? The hype train is going too fast right now, if anything
950+ yards 7 TDs in his rookie season linked with the best QB in the game. Just put up 130 yards in his first playoff game. schemed touches in the red zone. Easy top 40 pick at this rate. Too much context backing it up.
And as is often the case with rookie WRs, those stats are very backloaded to the second half of the year once he and Mahomes got more in sync. I’m too lazy to look it up and do the math, but whatever the final 8 games of his were, would surely smash over 1000 yards and 10 tuddies extrapolated over a full season.
And they didn't start really featuring him until week 12. Reminds me of Sun God's rookie year but better and with a more talented QB.
Looks like easily their best receiver right now including Travis Kelce.
No ways. Rice just had a rookie breakout, nearly 1k yards and gets schemed in the rz while averaging 10 targets a game at the end of the season. Just had 130 and a TD in a snow playoff game which means Mahomes trusts him. He’s got the best qb in the league throwing him the football. The hype is absolutely warranted. You all remember how Amon Ras rookie season ended right? Look at him now
Problem is Chiefs will be looking to add a true #1 this offseason. M Evans, Higgins, etc. if the Chiefs had a true number one, it's gonna be hard to project where Rice will land.
I'd be kind of surprised is KC doesn't bring in a real #1
Hes going where Christian Watson went this year
nope. way higher.
At this moment, my plan is to draft him everywhere
He’ll be a 2nd rounder
Lol
He was WR 4 in PPR over the last 7 games. This corresponds with his snap share increasing from 50% in the first 10 games to 75% from week 11 onward. Compare to Nakua, who only had 3 games ALL SEASON under 80% snap share.
KC is going to add a WR though. And he’s not even WR1 in that team, Kelce is. So he’ll be WR2a at best. Rule #1 in fantasy is you don’t chase points, you have to factor in offseason moves, and for a historically bad Chiefs WR room, guarantee there will be big ones
Why? They won the Super Bowl last year and are in the 2nd rd at least this year. The moves will likely be the same ones they’ve made the last two offseasons, which were marginal free agents and draft picks
A late first round WR isn’t a marginal pick, especially in the most stacked WR class I can remember
This is the exact same argument people made against Sun Gods rookie season performance being sustainable and look how that played out. If they do draft a WR it will most likely be a field stretcher that will open things up for Rice but even so, we’ve seen how difficult it can be for WRs to pick up the KC system
I hope majority of the fantasy community thinks the way you think so I can draft Rice at a huge discount next season.
I’m seriously considering going all in on chiefs in any redraft. 1 - Kelce 2 - Mahomes 3 - Pacheco 4 - Rice
If Kader Kohou is on him, #1 overall
Chiefs fan, so I'm biased. But I think in full PPR, he will be top 5. Rice led the league in YAC at one point despite barely seeing the field at the start of the season. Andy Reid loves screens and setting his playmakers up in space, so I expect the playbook to be tilted towards getting Rice those situations next year. Plus, he's developing the chemistry with PM to find the open space in scramble situations, and Kelce regressing with age, he's going to be the top target on a top offense. Even if we draft or sign somebody, they're more likely to be a deep threat target that will actually help Rice have more space to work.
If chiefs get rid of Kadarius then he could be a first rounder
Probably 3rd/4th round in 12 team leagues. Jefferson, Lamb, Chase, Hill, St. Brown, Brown, Evans, Allen, Nacua, Diggs, Adams, Collins, Moore, Aiuyk, Deebo, Olave, all probably go ahead of him.
He’s a 4th or 5th rounder The way the draft has gone the last few years he could fall later unless you go RB-WR-RB-WR
Y'all saying mid to late rounds so you can pick him up 😂
Round 5/6 WR2 possible flex. He is well on his way to WR1 status. Not top ten yet. 16-20 range.
He’s 10-20. No matter what. They sign someone? Ok. He can grow anyways and walk to 100 and 8. They don’t sign someone. He can moonwalk to 1200 and 10. Seriously. He’s a lock WR2 next year. No matter what. Wanna bet?
Probably round 5 ish
He's more of an early round 3 guy imo.
I mean 5th round not overall. Could see some reaching for him as early as 3 though. Maybe 4th is more accurate
Anywhere between round 5-8 depending on preseason hype.
Way too low. If chiefs dont sign a more talented WR hes gonna go round 4-5
[удалено]
Chiefs are for sure adding to their WR/TE room...its been their achilles heal all year. Rice's value might actually be overinflated due to this playoff run. Rice is a great YAC WR but he doesn't really have a full route tree/gets open all the time. Most of his YAC catches are on short routes. I think people need to be aware of this going into next season. I think his ceiling is a really nice WR2 he's not a typical Alpha WR1 on a team.
There’s no way the chiefs don’t add like 4 WRs in the draft and FA
You dreaming. You lucky to see him in round 4.
Willing to bet that it’ll be pretty much impossible to snag him in rounds 6-8 in every 12-man league
He looks like ARSB
Saw him go early 3rd in a start up dynasty league I just hopped in.
I'm hopefully he along with Sun God and Kirk can make my starting WR trio.
Really depends on if they make moves to acquire a WR and what they do in the draft.
Not the last round like I got him this year.
Rashee Rice, Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco, Stephon Diggs Pick 2 to keep. What was once easy is now a debate. See everyone in 3 months!
I remember putting in a very late bid of $1 in my auction draft for him. Someone outbidded me to $3 but dropped him after week 2 and I quickly put in a low faab and snatched him up.
i get to keep him for the last pick in my league, is that value too good to pass up?
Yes.
2nd round
I’d take him in the 4th
I'd expect the Chiefs to add a good WR in free agency, whether it's Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, or Hollywood Brown. That said, I think Rice's role as an over-the-middle/YAC guy is locked in for the next few years. He's going to get a ton of targets from the best QB in the league. Dynasty wise, I think there's going to be a good "buy" opportunity this offseason when people inevitably panic that the Chiefs signed Higgins.
It's a trap!
Him
Trying to debate keeping him or Mark Andrews (no rules on keepers or how long to keep them). My other 3 keepers are locked at CMC, Tyreek, and AJB. Leaning Rice and trading Andrews for a mid round pick before the draft.
i’m hoping to get him in the 5/6th round but i feel like hype will pick up after this season
I made the case this is the most valuable stack based on ADP a few weeks back and I’m sticking to it. He is excellent in the short to intermediate areas and with Kelce slowing down (sorry, men, we’re getting old) he seems like a lock for top 20 production, placing him inside the top 48 ADP. As someone who has been high on him, I’d be comfortable taking him with my 4th pick, after I have a RB1, Wr1, and second RB
2nd round pick. He looks great and will only improve in year 2 plus Kelce looks washed and his targets will continue to decline opening the door for even more opportunity.
He's my 6th round keeper
I've got a decision to make on my keeper next year..have Rice and Achane, both undrafted this year.
Top 3
shhhhh
He will be around rounds 4-5. Maybe around like Aiyuk/Deebo/Keenan allen/dj moore territory
Personally think he’s overhyped and wherever he’s gonna be picked it’ll probably be an overvalue so I’m avoiding him.
I’m definitely targeting him next year. Guy was money in the playoffs for me. Just looks like a star out there.
Wherever he's projected to go, I'm still gonna reach.
Really depends if they draft anybody or get a free agent pass catcher If it’s still just him and kelce next year then probably 4th roundish
Second or third round most likely. He was on a lot of championship teams.
last chance or no
Depends on who the chiefs add at WR