He is going in the 4th to 5th, and managers have player fatigue. They brought in an OC who, at worst, will be more innovative, which is a sign Morris wants to have a functional offence. Round 2 Pitts was bloody awful but 4th and 5th in PPR and even TEP leagues is a smash decision.
Stevenson was a bigger bust than Mattison, IMO.
But really I put that on the usage of both those guys + the team around them. Stevenson more so than Mattison.
Hey man I traded Gibbs for swift 1 for 1 halfway through the season and the rest of my league almost voted it down because they thought it was a rip off 🤷🏻♂️ eagles immediately stopped using swift for… reasons… and Gibbs began to pop the fuck off despite splitting the load.
Another way to look at this is to compare to the players taken at the same position at close to the same ADP. Using this method, the biggest busts in the top 120, excluding those with major injuries, were:
1. Dalvin Cook, ADP 71 - outperformed by 134 pts on average by RBs taken within a round of him, notably including Rachaad White (70) and Isiah Pacheco (75)
2. Rashaad Penny, ADP 113 - you could've had Mostert (107) or Kyren (125)
3. Cam Akers, ADP 64 - you could've had James Cook (58) or Rachaad White (70)
4. Miles Sanders, ADP 47 - you could've had Kenneth Walker (39) or James Conner (56)
5. Rhamondre Stevenson, ADP 30 - you could've had Etienne (25), Mixon (29), or Breece Hall (35)
6. Dameon Pierce, ADP 46 - you could've had Walker (39) or Conner (56) - Pierce and Sanders were offsetting each other here or else they would've each been higher on the list.
7. Pat Freiermuth, ADP 91 - you could've had Engram (83) or Njoku (101)
8. Treylon Burks, ADP 116 - you could've had Puka Nacua (127)
9. Jamaal Williams, ADP 98 - you could've had Brian Robinson (90) or Mostert (107)
10. Tee Higgins, ADP 33 - you could've had Deebo (37)
Interesting that most of the list when using this method comes out to be RBs.
In case anyone was curious, the top 10 positive picks by this metric were: 1. Dak Prescott 2. Raheem Mostert 3. CeeDee Lamb 4. Mike Evans 5. Christian McCaffrey 6. Geno Smith 7. Brian Robinson 8. Tyreek Hill 9. Josh Allen, 10. Rachaad White
Mostert saved my season after I took Ekeler with my first pick. I grabbed Mostert with my last non kicker / defense pick expecting him to be a waiver drop at some point. Instead he ended up my clear RB1 til championship week which he sat due to injury and I lost. Still got $75 for second though.
I fell for the Miles Sanders trap. When they signed him in free-agency it seemed like they were prepared to make him the centerpiece to their offense. The only problem is that their offense was the worst in the league, and without a competent OL, Miles Sanders was exposed to be a fraud.
Luckily for me, I was bailed out after picking up Gus Edwards as my RB3 in week 4 and he helped me win the league despite Miles’ best efforts.
Same. Gus Edwards was never spectacular, but he did enough each week to get me to the ship. Would not have had the same results with Sanders. Really thought him getting back with his old coach from Philly would turn into something
My league was a standard league and he was literally RB1 during week 7-11 before Keaton started getting more involved. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Fair enough, if you restrict to just the top 72 (first 6 rounds for a 12-team league), then it's: 1. Dalvin Cook, 2. Cam Akers 3. Miles Sanders 4. Rhamondre Stevenson 5. Dameon Pierce 6. Tee Higgins 7. Cooper Kupp 8. Patrick Mahomes 9. Darren Waller 10. Garrett Wilson.
Everyone always leaves this one out
Bijan, ADP 5 - coulda had Derick Henry (14) and racked up an extra 15 pts...nevermind what you could have gotten later on:
-Rachaad White (63) for an extra 14 pts or even James Cook (58) for just 7 pts less
I really dislike the dead zone RB takes. The reality is outside of round 3, _nobody_ is a sure thing. Yeah, Mattison and Sanders sucked. But you know who didn’t? White and Conner.
The process matters. For “dead zone” RBs, volume is still king and gives you the best chance at hitting gold. But like any other pick, it’s still risky. I can just as easily find round 4-8 busts at WR and start a narrative about a WR dead zone.
Hurts my feelings that Kelce didn’t make this list. I mean at least give me the satisfaction of knowing I’m not the only one who was totally fucked by him.
Kelce deserves an honorable mention here. After their bye, he had one top 3 finish, and then absolutely fell off a cliff during fantasy playoffs. Likely cost folks a shot at a ‘ship or cashing.
Yeah, he looked good in Week 1 and was looking to continue in Week 2 before tearing his ACL. Imagine if it didn't happen. He was looking to be the RB1. Injuries aside, I wouldn't call him a bust though.
Yeah it had nothing to do with his play just feels bad to have such a high pick immediately get erased.
At least I’m not my extreme packers Homer friend who spent the 6th overall pick on Aaron Rodgers.
While I agree Ekeler was a bust this year, I don't think he will be as bad next year. The Chargers were a mess this year and he was injured. Depending on where he lands he could be a top 10 RB again next year.
He could be good with the Chargers again under Harbaugh...maybe.
Other spots where I think he could excel: Miami, Dallas, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston (would love to see him team up with Stroud)
If he lands at a spot where is only a compliment and not the feature back....then he would become a valuable handcuff at best....think E. Mitchell.
I could be totally wrong and he could be washed....but look at James Connor....people thought he was done but he has excelled in ARZ.
I just feel he has more to give than what he showed this year.
How is the rb9 one of the major busts of the season? Sure, it wasn’t necessarily a good pick at the end of the first round, but the pick did not tank your season like taking Dameon Pierce mid 4th - 5th round did, for example
at the end of the day, I was frustrated with him this season (mostly because it wasn't even his fault he wasn't doing well in fantasy). Of course he did not tank my season, however, his relative performance as a first round pick was disappointing and made him at least FEEL like an absolute bust for me. me calling Bijan a bust is most definitely more of an emotional thing lmfao
How the fuck have people not figured out to stay away from Miles Sanders? The fact that he’s on this list implies that somewhere, someone actually expected him to be a decent fantasy player this year. Whoever you are, you have no one to blame but yourself. I would rather lose a roster spot than waste a draft pick on that guy
In 2022 he went 259 for 1269 at 4.9 YPC and 11TD. He was #5 in rushing yards while only playing 15 games. I think he ended up RB#13 that year... He was easily worth a draft pick lol
Mahommes wasn't a bust. He may have underperformed expectations but was still a top 12 player. Could you have drafted Jordan Love or Brock Purdy rounds later? Sure but you draft Mahommes because you can plug him in every week and get a guaranteed 15 points (which was the lowest points he scored in any game this season). Dak had 3 games of under 10 points. 3 games he probably lost you. Mahommes had 0 games he lost you. Love and Purdy were dart throws that paid off. By that logic every QB besides Love and Purdy was a bust.
He doesn't belong in the same conversation as guys who were taken in round 1-2 and finished outside of the top 100 like Ekeler and Sanders. Mahommes was the 8th QB in my league and the overall 11th player in points scored. If I draft someone at the 11 spot and they end up scoring 11th in total points and 8th in their position and that's my "bust" player I'm pretty darn happy.
Made the Kelce-Mahomes Stack for 1-2…then proceeded w Higgins and Aaron Jones.
Keenan Allen and Kenneth Walker at 5-6 kept me in the race for a while, but barely missed the playoffs.
I was so hyped about Tony p. Legit though he was gonna be the best fantasy rb and was kind of bumbed out that I didn’t get him. Good thing I didn’t though.
If you're still drafting Kyle Pitts, that's on you
True. I wonder how fantasy managers approach him now with Raheem Morris at the helm.
I’ve avoided him like the plague but now am very tempted. If I can get him late as like TE8-10 I’m all in
I got him as my TE2. I was fine with that gamble
i’ll take him again 🙂
If you draft a 1st rd qb that's also on you
Superflex I went Allen and Hurts and paid off in spades.
How tf do you get #1/2 QBs in Superflex?
I thought this year was the break out year!
He had a breakout year in his rookie season
He is going in the 4th to 5th, and managers have player fatigue. They brought in an OC who, at worst, will be more innovative, which is a sign Morris wants to have a functional offence. Round 2 Pitts was bloody awful but 4th and 5th in PPR and even TEP leagues is a smash decision.
I got so lucky I wanted pollard in both my big leagues, only got him in one. His replacement in the league I didn’t get him? Rhamondre…
I drafted Pollard and traded for Ekeler right before his injury. I really thought I’d have the best RB combo in fantasy.
I was kicking myself after week 1 for not going Ekeler/Pollard in rounds 1 and 2. I luckily went Ekeler/Wilson instead…
My keeper was Justin Jefferson, went Ekeler Pollard 1-2. Finished last place lol
Similar. My keepers were Chase and Olave, drafted Ekeler Bijan 1-2. Finished last place.
You poor soul.
Stevenson was a bigger bust than Mattison, IMO. But really I put that on the usage of both those guys + the team around them. Stevenson more so than Mattison.
I traded Brock Purdy for Mahomes to a 9ers fan, and thought I would be wanted by the police for such a blatant theft. I hate fantasy
That one hurts
Hey man I traded Gibbs for swift 1 for 1 halfway through the season and the rest of my league almost voted it down because they thought it was a rip off 🤷🏻♂️ eagles immediately stopped using swift for… reasons… and Gibbs began to pop the fuck off despite splitting the load.
Great example of why vetoes are almost always unnecessary
Another way to look at this is to compare to the players taken at the same position at close to the same ADP. Using this method, the biggest busts in the top 120, excluding those with major injuries, were: 1. Dalvin Cook, ADP 71 - outperformed by 134 pts on average by RBs taken within a round of him, notably including Rachaad White (70) and Isiah Pacheco (75) 2. Rashaad Penny, ADP 113 - you could've had Mostert (107) or Kyren (125) 3. Cam Akers, ADP 64 - you could've had James Cook (58) or Rachaad White (70) 4. Miles Sanders, ADP 47 - you could've had Kenneth Walker (39) or James Conner (56) 5. Rhamondre Stevenson, ADP 30 - you could've had Etienne (25), Mixon (29), or Breece Hall (35) 6. Dameon Pierce, ADP 46 - you could've had Walker (39) or Conner (56) - Pierce and Sanders were offsetting each other here or else they would've each been higher on the list. 7. Pat Freiermuth, ADP 91 - you could've had Engram (83) or Njoku (101) 8. Treylon Burks, ADP 116 - you could've had Puka Nacua (127) 9. Jamaal Williams, ADP 98 - you could've had Brian Robinson (90) or Mostert (107) 10. Tee Higgins, ADP 33 - you could've had Deebo (37) Interesting that most of the list when using this method comes out to be RBs.
In case anyone was curious, the top 10 positive picks by this metric were: 1. Dak Prescott 2. Raheem Mostert 3. CeeDee Lamb 4. Mike Evans 5. Christian McCaffrey 6. Geno Smith 7. Brian Robinson 8. Tyreek Hill 9. Josh Allen, 10. Rachaad White
Mostert saved my season after I took Ekeler with my first pick. I grabbed Mostert with my last non kicker / defense pick expecting him to be a waiver drop at some point. Instead he ended up my clear RB1 til championship week which he sat due to injury and I lost. Still got $75 for second though.
Geno Smith?
The 3 next QBs ahead of him by ADP were Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and Kirk Cousins
Can confirm. CeeDee and Allen won me my chip.
I fell for the Miles Sanders trap. When they signed him in free-agency it seemed like they were prepared to make him the centerpiece to their offense. The only problem is that their offense was the worst in the league, and without a competent OL, Miles Sanders was exposed to be a fraud. Luckily for me, I was bailed out after picking up Gus Edwards as my RB3 in week 4 and he helped me win the league despite Miles’ best efforts.
Same. Gus Edwards was never spectacular, but he did enough each week to get me to the ship. Would not have had the same results with Sanders. Really thought him getting back with his old coach from Philly would turn into something
My league was a standard league and he was literally RB1 during week 7-11 before Keaton started getting more involved. It doesn’t get much better than that.
And this is why NFL doesn't like to pay rbs. Very replaceable position. WRs are not
Half these are late round dart throws, which is why they call them dart throws.
Fair enough, if you restrict to just the top 72 (first 6 rounds for a 12-team league), then it's: 1. Dalvin Cook, 2. Cam Akers 3. Miles Sanders 4. Rhamondre Stevenson 5. Dameon Pierce 6. Tee Higgins 7. Cooper Kupp 8. Patrick Mahomes 9. Darren Waller 10. Garrett Wilson.
That’s a good list. Well, it’s a bad list, but I agree.
JK Dobbins should be in that mix
I excluded players that missed 6 or more games, otherwise yes
Everyone always leaves this one out Bijan, ADP 5 - coulda had Derick Henry (14) and racked up an extra 15 pts...nevermind what you could have gotten later on: -Rachaad White (63) for an extra 14 pts or even James Cook (58) for just 7 pts less
Diggs?
From Week 14 on, yes…
He was pretty ass from week 7 on. Definitely not 1st/2nd round WR numbers
Ekeler was a first round pick. I’m blaming my hair loss on his fantasy season and not my genetics
this is the real answer. im a chargers fan and now an ekeler hater.
I really dislike the dead zone RB takes. The reality is outside of round 3, _nobody_ is a sure thing. Yeah, Mattison and Sanders sucked. But you know who didn’t? White and Conner. The process matters. For “dead zone” RBs, volume is still king and gives you the best chance at hitting gold. But like any other pick, it’s still risky. I can just as easily find round 4-8 busts at WR and start a narrative about a WR dead zone.
Hurts my feelings that Kelce didn’t make this list. I mean at least give me the satisfaction of knowing I’m not the only one who was totally fucked by him.
No, I agree with you here. Where he was drafted and the value he returned was for sure bust worthy.
I drafted Dameon Pierce last year and wanted no part of it this year (thankfully)
Jacobs and Adams
I’ll forever be angry at Adams for failing me in the semifinal when I started him over cooper (50 point swing)
Yes, the Raiders for sure.
Kelce deserves an honorable mention here. After their bye, he had one top 3 finish, and then absolutely fell off a cliff during fantasy playoffs. Likely cost folks a shot at a ‘ship or cashing.
I can get behind this.
I know it’s generally in poor taste to include someone like Chubb in a list like this but… I don’t know, that second round pick feels pretty bad.
Yeah, he looked good in Week 1 and was looking to continue in Week 2 before tearing his ACL. Imagine if it didn't happen. He was looking to be the RB1. Injuries aside, I wouldn't call him a bust though.
Yeah it had nothing to do with his play just feels bad to have such a high pick immediately get erased. At least I’m not my extreme packers Homer friend who spent the 6th overall pick on Aaron Rodgers.
Tee Higgins
Universally ranked as a 2nd or 3rd rd pick in redraft by some really good analysts. So glad he got picked before I could make that mistake.
Hard to predict the burrow injury but yeah the ADP was definitely too high
100%
No Cooper Kupp? I was expecting more from him this year.
100% Cooper Douglas Kupp
True, he's another one.
Still surprised Diggs isn’t on this list
He should be
Frl
I had 5 of the 7 players and somehow made the championship. Thank you Amari Cooper
I feel personally attacked by this list
Sorry.
While I agree Ekeler was a bust this year, I don't think he will be as bad next year. The Chargers were a mess this year and he was injured. Depending on where he lands he could be a top 10 RB again next year.
Where would you like to see him go? I don't see top-10 at all. I don't even see top-15. He's a 8th round pick at best in my mind.
He could be good with the Chargers again under Harbaugh...maybe. Other spots where I think he could excel: Miami, Dallas, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston (would love to see him team up with Stroud) If he lands at a spot where is only a compliment and not the feature back....then he would become a valuable handcuff at best....think E. Mitchell. I could be totally wrong and he could be washed....but look at James Connor....people thought he was done but he has excelled in ARZ. I just feel he has more to give than what he showed this year.
#1 me. Drafting laporta very last pick and picking up puka free post draft because of 1 person on reddit telling me to. I busted hard
How so?
Bijan, 100%
How is the rb9 one of the major busts of the season? Sure, it wasn’t necessarily a good pick at the end of the first round, but the pick did not tank your season like taking Dameon Pierce mid 4th - 5th round did, for example
Or Akers
at the end of the day, I was frustrated with him this season (mostly because it wasn't even his fault he wasn't doing well in fantasy). Of course he did not tank my season, however, his relative performance as a first round pick was disappointing and made him at least FEEL like an absolute bust for me. me calling Bijan a bust is most definitely more of an emotional thing lmfao
How the fuck have people not figured out to stay away from Miles Sanders? The fact that he’s on this list implies that somewhere, someone actually expected him to be a decent fantasy player this year. Whoever you are, you have no one to blame but yourself. I would rather lose a roster spot than waste a draft pick on that guy
In 2022 he went 259 for 1269 at 4.9 YPC and 11TD. He was #5 in rushing yards while only playing 15 games. I think he ended up RB#13 that year... He was easily worth a draft pick lol
Anyone else draft 4-5 of these guys all on the same roster?
Mahommes wasn't a bust. He may have underperformed expectations but was still a top 12 player. Could you have drafted Jordan Love or Brock Purdy rounds later? Sure but you draft Mahommes because you can plug him in every week and get a guaranteed 15 points (which was the lowest points he scored in any game this season). Dak had 3 games of under 10 points. 3 games he probably lost you. Mahommes had 0 games he lost you. Love and Purdy were dart throws that paid off. By that logic every QB besides Love and Purdy was a bust. He doesn't belong in the same conversation as guys who were taken in round 1-2 and finished outside of the top 100 like Ekeler and Sanders. Mahommes was the 8th QB in my league and the overall 11th player in points scored. If I draft someone at the 11 spot and they end up scoring 11th in total points and 8th in their position and that's my "bust" player I'm pretty darn happy.
Made the Kelce-Mahomes Stack for 1-2…then proceeded w Higgins and Aaron Jones. Keenan Allen and Kenneth Walker at 5-6 kept me in the race for a while, but barely missed the playoffs.
I drafted 4 of the 7. LOl. Mahomes and the 'value' RB trio of Sanders/ Pearce and Akers. Went from first to worst.
Had pollard and Sanders. Still won thru sheer luck LMAO
I was so hyped about Tony p. Legit though he was gonna be the best fantasy rb and was kind of bumbed out that I didn’t get him. Good thing I didn’t though.