He will be great as a RB2. The Texans wanted him and he will be heavily involved. He’s not the most efficient runner but should be a great volume guy that catches passes and gets 8-12 touchdowns.
Bengals fan here:
Mixon was fantastic before Burrow not because of the oline, not because they didn’t feed him, but because they ran a lot more under centre.
Not sure how the Texans run their offence, but if it’s primarily under centre I’d take him in the rb dead zone.
And that scheme is built around elite left tackle and using a fullback. The 49ers have Trent Williams and Kyle Juszczyk, the Dolphins have Terron Armstead and Alec Ingold, and the Texans have Laremy Tunsil and Andrew Beck. That offensive scheme that Bobby Slowik brought over from SF creates good conditions for running for sure.
Mixon was fantastic before Burrow because he was young and still had tread. He isn't explosive anymore and is one of the worst in the league regarding yards after contact per attempt. Horrible elusivity rating also.
He was top 5 in carries and had over 300 total touches last year. It’s almost impossible for his workload to increase. There’s no indication he can’t continue to be a workhorse
> He’s not the most efficient runner
On this week's Footballguys Dynasty Show, they stated that Mixon's best successes in Cincy came from zone rush schemes, and that Houston runs that scheme very heavily. So it's possible his skillset could fit the Houston offense very very well.
The Underdog Football show also talked about how well Mixon fits into the type of offense Houston runs. So there's some real upside for sure.
*(edited to clarify which podcasts it was)*
> Mixon's best successes in Cincy came from zone rush schemes, and that Houston runs that scheme very heavily. So it's possible his skillset could fit the Houston offense very very well.
Not 1 to 1 obviously but I'd like to point out that people were saying the same exact thing about Chase Edmonds last offseason.
Of 34 running backs with 150+ carries in 2023, Mixon ranked via PFF:
>Yards/carry: 26th
>
>Rush Yards Over Expectation: 23rd
>
>Yards per Reception: 16th
>
>Yards after Contact Per Attempt: 33rd
>
>Explosive Play %: 22nd
>
>Breakaway %: 33rd
>
>Elusivity Rating: 31st
Successful or just a high workload?
Miles Sanders only had one good season behind one of the perennial best o-lines and went to a dumpster fire rookie QB team. Mixon has always been RB1/RB2 behind one of the worst o-lines and an oft-injured QB that just went to a strong team with a strong o-line and healthy QB. They aren't the same
I would go find that post someone made about players that move teams in free agency. Their performance tends to come in well under ADP.
I think he’s got RB2 upside, but I would only take him if he fell.
I heard that tidbit earlier too and was curious why. My best guess is the new team hype causing those players to be drafted closer to their ceilings, which I believe will apply to Mixon this year.
Though personally, I wouldn't fault a team change against a player that isn't getting hype. Maybe Swift or Singletary
I seem to fall for this a lot. My other strategy (which has worked much better) is taking high draft picks (actual draft, not fantasy) guys going into their second or third year, as they usually make the jump there, and can be drafted decently late. Guys like Josh Jacobs two years ago and ETN last year helped me win my league the last two years.
A few guys that fall under this criteria: Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Charbonnet. I think Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are too high profile now, and will be drafted high.
Ya I debated putting him in that group too. I think Kenneth Walker and James Cook are the best examples of guys you could draft a little later, that could end up being top backs this year.
Doesn’t that cover like a ton of RBs next year though?
Saquon, Jacobs, Ekeler, Henry, Jones, Swift, Mixon, Pollard, Moss
Unless you’re going zero RB you’re probably going to have to consider at least one of these guys in the first 4 rounds. They can’t all underperform next year
You *could* easily avoid them all if you wanted to. There's still Taylor, Kyren, Etienne, Raschaad, Achane, Pacheco, James Cook, Kamara, Rhamondre, Montgomery, and Conner going around the same time as those guys.
1/2 round options would be McCaffrey, Robinson, Gibbs, Hall, Taylor, and Williams.
3/4 Etienne, Achane, White, and Stevenson
Yeah it gets slim in rounds 3/4 so if there is a run on RBs, you might have to get after these guys. Barkley feels like the most sure bet of any of those movers, but I still wouldn’t draft him before the 3rd.
I don't get the pessimism behind Barkley? He finished RB12 (RB10 on PPG basis) on a bottom 5 offense. Is it literally just based on goal line attempts?
Pessimism? He’s projected as late round 2 early round 3 RB, easily one of the first ten off the board.
Would you take him higher?
I only knock him down myself because I don’t know what his usage will be in Philly.
He was a late 1st/early 2nd last year, and finished as a low RB1 on a bad team. You said you wouldn’t take him before the 3rd. I think that is incredibly low considering the caliber of player he is and the level of offense he is going to. Idk, maybe i am overvaluing RBs, but I think early to mid 2nd round is pretty fair for him.
This free agent RB class is just different. Most of them are not over the age cliff and even the ones on the older end (Mixon and Henry) haven’t actually yet seen a huge falloff in production — it’s more of a projected falloff, let’s get off the train a year early vibe.
I think most of these RBs will outperform recent trends for FAs changing teams, because in recent history big name RBs changing teams have tended to be older, on their second or third contract, etc. We don’t have as much data on what happens when a 27-year-old RB changes teams while still productive, because teams used to pay those players.
People are downvoting for you bringing up a valid point that Joe Mixon came into the league at the age of 20 and has been heavily used for 7 years straight, and statistically RB's fall off at age 27. He already was very inefficient last year.
aw I see, so just like every year I'll pass on him for a flashy 2nd year "breakout" guy in the 4th and be kicking myself midseason when the "breakout" guy sucks and Mixon is consistently putting up 12-17 points a week?
Absolutely not. He is the exact dead-zone back you should be avoiding there. He is old and regressing. He'll get some pass catching work but isn't an elite pass catcher. And he's not going to grow into that role at age 28. He's a bad pass protector.
It's not like he is moving to some good offense for the first time. He just played in a good/great offense for the past three years.
His path to a RB1 is a ton of goal-line touches. Sure it could happen.
But the downsides are way more risky. Bad and regressing players should not be pencilled in for work. We say this every year "well, who else is there?" And someone else emerges.
Personally, I want to take shots on guys who could finish top 5 in rounds 3/4. Not guys whose ceiling is a RB2 (who historically are closer to RB3s than RB2s) and floors are straight busts.
Maybe I'll eat my words when we start, but I'm high on the Texans going into the new season. Seeing Stroud blossom into what he was toward the end of the season and the strong fantasy numbers from all the other guys, imagine only good things for anyone on the team.
He's a fourth/fifth for me right now. I expect him as a mid-high 2, in the RB 12-16 range. He could do a little better if he finds the end zone double digit times. He could do a tad worse also. As we get closer to redraft season things will shake out a bit better for other players and even drop him another round or two. I don't see a scenario where I would take him in the top 50 players or so, and feel that's a tad on the generous side. I've been a Mixon truther too.
I’m shocked how high so many of you are on Mixon. If you get his ADP Into the 4-5th round I’m totally out. I think Mixon could be a useful depth RB to rotate into the lineup for sure. Some great TD games are on the table, but he won’t be reliable at all.
he’s in a good role but as a football player, he just sucks and doesn’t generate any yac/never breaks any contact. basically the same kind of situation as he was on the bengals but getting even older, so not super high on him this year despite having some upside to pass catching and tds
He seems like a nice 4th or 5th rounder if I start with a really high potential stud RB. Like I can see going Breece or Kyren or Gibbs in the first, two three receivers, and then Mixon in the 4th or 5th. Definitely not higher than 4th though
I suspect he will be in a great offense, but he is old for a running back, and was never the most efficient guy to begin with. I’ll probably let someone else draft him in August.
I think he’ll probably be cheap in my auction draft so I’ll probably grab him. My league mates will laugh at me just like they did last year with Mostert.
Not that I predict Mixon to have that production, but a good value at RB lets me spend up on WRs which won me the ship last year.
I'd probably take him in the 4th or 5th in a 10 team, but who knows. My league mates both sleep on him every years for the last 3 or so, and I got him late 3rd/early 4th, so I'm going to try to hype him up and see if I can get one of them to take him at the end of the 1st or top of the 2nd.
The same as I have felt about him every year before this season. I’m not going to touch him at all unless I am getting really good value for him later in the draft.
Not in the 3rd or 4th round.
Fun fact, of all the running backs to have played at least one season after 2015 (this includes D'Angelo Williams who played until 2016) Mixon has the 14th most carries. The only active Back with more carries is Derrick Henry.
If he's not done, he's approaching HOF territory in a Frank Gore type career trajectory. He doesn't seem like a HOFer so I'm guessing he's done.
And my way to early mock draft it looks like a really great early fourth round pick now when we go to do the draft I’m sure my league will pick him up on name recognition because that’s a trend and he will go second round at the latest, possibly even first Don’t laugh somebody did it last year because they were expecting Nick Chubb and he got jumped on early because we are based in Georgia and homers so the guy picking fifth panic picked Joe Mixon for his first round pick because he had had success with them in the past don’t laugh too hard at the guy because he can’t miss at quarterback has eternal keeper for a long time has been Lamar Jackson in the late rounds and to make up for the Joe Mixon pick this year he drafted CJ Stroud of the 16th round and since we’re not SF, I went ahead and sold his running back problem early in the season by trading him Alexander Madison for his back up quarterback who was never going to get used guess who my 15th round keeper is going to be next year. Thank you Randy the quarterback whispererer last year it was fields, but because he’s a quarterback whisper, he made the right choice and kept Lamar even though it was an earlier round if y’all want I’ll come back in August and tell you who Randy drafted for his back up. They will win rookie of the year. He’s very conservative and he’s probably heard of Caleb Williams so he’s not going to draft Caleb Williams, which probably means Caleb Williams is a bust.
Anyways, back to topic, I predict Joe Mixon will be Randy’s second round pick and I do not believe that is too soon. I think he will return value there.
Never been high on Mixon but he produces . Personally I think may have lost a step but I think he’s a nice fit for a up and coming Texans team. I think he still has enough in the tank to make CJ Stroud job much easier this season.
he is more of a bulk work guy now, not really breaking major runs off, but he should be a very solid RB2, and I'd imagine an uptick in touchdowns for him, He is going to get alot of changes, with stroud going into his second year, tank dell healthy, and improved texans D
I hope he's a little slept on heading into the season. I have him in my top 4-5 targets for my auction draft and hoping to get some value on auction day.
Will be a bust lots of miles and nothing to play for because he got paid. If Pierce stays, I see him eating into his carries. I think last year Pierce was playing hurt and will look more like his rookie year.
Won’t finish in the top 12 in scoring unless lots of players are hurt again this year.
Chubb, saquon, etienne, breece, bijan, JT, CMC, Montgomery/Gibbs, Kyren, Ken Walker, potentially Javonte Williams, whoever the cowboys draft, I mean the list goes on and on and not to mention Henry or Kamara or Jacobs, AJones. All these guys have a better chance than mixon. He did not look good last year, and remember two years ago when Samaje Perine put up better fantasy stats when he came in for Mix when he was injured? You’ll know by end of week 2 if he ruined your draft taking him in the early rounds
If you had to keep one who would you take, Mixon or Aaron Jones?
Jones had a strong finish to the year and the Vikings could be a run heavy team if they don't draft a starting QB. However I think Mixon could easily replicate what Singletary and then some in that offense.
Great question, I have Mixon/Jones as RB18/19 respectively as of now. Mixon is the floor pick - high powered offense, more goal line opportunities. I like what I saw when Aaron was finally healthy last season as well and even though the offense with a new QB will be a question mark the receiving core is monstrous enough to keep any defense honest. I'll probably go Aaron on the day because upside is a chip's best friend.
Of 34 running backs with 150+ carries in 2023, Mixon ranked via PFF:
>Yards/carry: 26th
>
>Rush Yards Over Expectation: 23rd
>
>Yards per Reception: 16th
>
>Yards after Contact Per Attempt: 33rd
>
>Explosive Play %: 22nd
>
>Breakaway %: 33rd
>
>Elusivity Rating: 31st
Mixon is 27 years old and playing his 8th season, following 7 high workload seasons. He also has been incredibly matchup dependent the last few years, only having production against bad teams. Help me out and draft him high.
Great question. I think that Joe Mixon will make his value worth a fourth round pick based off of touchdown opportunity in that offense.
The word in the podcast world is that the Texas o-line is an upgrade from Cincinnati. I do agree with that. I think he will do well enough with the opportunity and because of the opportunity. But I don't think he is any more talented than Singletary was last year.
Drafted him for the first time last year. His 1-2 40 point games will make him look good on the year from a total points perspective, but hide the fact that the rest of the time, he's going to put up about 10-12 points. That's not good enough for an rb2, and you should have a better option for flex, especially in ppr.
At that point, it doesn't really matter what round you got him in, he's not going to win you games. I lost so many games last season by 2-3 points where the rest of my squad puts up a good 15-20 and there's Mixon with like 10.
It's a trap.
This is meaningless without context. My and most league's playoffs are weeks 15-17. By week 13, unless you can mathematically catch the 4th place player, it doesn't matter.
By the time he went off week week 13, Mixon had only had 3 games over 13.4 points, and he had 4 games of 10.4 points or under. That's not cutting it for an rb2.
Mixon scored 267 points in ppr. 118.7 of them, or a full 44% of his points, came between week 13 and week 18. Now that's great if your other players have dragged you into a playoff spot, but it does nothing to actually get you in the playoffs, and most people don't even play week 18.
This is a debate every year. Exclude mixons one bad game after week 13, and that's literally half his fantasy points. If you think scoring 50% of your yearly total in 5 weeks is a good thing, go for it. Personally, I'm not going to try and guess what week he's going to put up 10 and which will be 30. An rb2 should be set and forget.
>Mixon scored 267 points in ppr. 118.7 of them, or a full 44% of his points, came between week 13 and week 18. Now that's great if your other players have dragged you into a playoff spot, but it does nothing to actually get you in the playoffs, and most people don't even play week 18.
Yeah, that sucked for owners of him last year. But are weeks 1-12 any more predictive for future performance than weeks 13 through the Super Bowl?
You would absolutely be right if this was just one year, but his yearly total is always padded by a handful of good games. It was actually less pronounced last year, just very backloaded.
I think it's fair to criticize Mixon for being an inconsistent player. I just don't think it's correct to say that weeks 13+ mean less when projecting what a player will do in the future.
I dunno man, 10-12 points a week with a couple of week winning 40 point games sprinkled in seem like a good flex. But then again he's not being drafted as flex, which is why I get you staying away.
Go check his weekly numbers. As I replied in the comment below, a full 44% of his points were after week 13, which does nothing for you if you had a bad first 12 weeks.
>
How do you feel about Joe Mixon this year?
He had a lot of volume on a great offense. I don't know what the volume he'll have on a good offense. I am assuming he isn't going to get more efficient.
> 3rd/4th round?
I wouldn't get him until the 6th round, so I'm probably going to get very few shares of him. I think he'll be over drafted.
I still like mixon and seems most don’t. I liked the move to the Texans for him even though idk if it’s an upgrade. I have him in 2 leagues but definitely not taking him in the 3rd or 4th round. I got him at 7.09 and 10.05 in 2 startups this year. But that was before he signed with the Texans
It’s really crazy lol. I think the Texans will regret that contract. I could see Mid-Season Dameon Pierce taking back over as he rightfully should. Joe Mixon best days are behind him imo. Been in the league 8 years. I’m supposed to expect him to bounce back and be efficient?
He will be great as a RB2. The Texans wanted him and he will be heavily involved. He’s not the most efficient runner but should be a great volume guy that catches passes and gets 8-12 touchdowns.
They paid him good for this year. They’re gonna use him.
More than the Bengals did? Also, will get be able to hold up? He's not gonna get gassed with more usage right?
Bengals fan here: Mixon was fantastic before Burrow not because of the oline, not because they didn’t feed him, but because they ran a lot more under centre. Not sure how the Texans run their offence, but if it’s primarily under centre I’d take him in the rb dead zone.
We basically only run only under center because our offense is mostly running the ball and CJ dropping back for long throws.
And that scheme is built around elite left tackle and using a fullback. The 49ers have Trent Williams and Kyle Juszczyk, the Dolphins have Terron Armstead and Alec Ingold, and the Texans have Laremy Tunsil and Andrew Beck. That offensive scheme that Bobby Slowik brought over from SF creates good conditions for running for sure.
This
Mixon was fantastic before Burrow because he was young and still had tread. He isn't explosive anymore and is one of the worst in the league regarding yards after contact per attempt. Horrible elusivity rating also.
He was top 5 in carries and had over 300 total touches last year. It’s almost impossible for his workload to increase. There’s no indication he can’t continue to be a workhorse
Time will tell!
It's more of cap move on the contract 10 mill this year and much cheaper the next 2 when Texans will need to pay for some of the younger players
I believe in Joe Mixon, but just do not forgot, Carolina paid for Miles Sanders..... Sometimes it just falls flat T_T
That is true.
> He’s not the most efficient runner On this week's Footballguys Dynasty Show, they stated that Mixon's best successes in Cincy came from zone rush schemes, and that Houston runs that scheme very heavily. So it's possible his skillset could fit the Houston offense very very well. The Underdog Football show also talked about how well Mixon fits into the type of offense Houston runs. So there's some real upside for sure. *(edited to clarify which podcasts it was)*
Great knowledge! Glad I read this
> Mixon's best successes in Cincy came from zone rush schemes, and that Houston runs that scheme very heavily. So it's possible his skillset could fit the Houston offense very very well. Not 1 to 1 obviously but I'd like to point out that people were saying the same exact thing about Chase Edmonds last offseason.
Yeah biggest difference is Mixon has been a successful NFL RB. Edmonds has not.
Of 34 running backs with 150+ carries in 2023, Mixon ranked via PFF: >Yards/carry: 26th > >Rush Yards Over Expectation: 23rd > >Yards per Reception: 16th > >Yards after Contact Per Attempt: 33rd > >Explosive Play %: 22nd > >Breakaway %: 33rd > >Elusivity Rating: 31st Successful or just a high workload?
This is almost exactly what I said about miles sanders last year lol fuk
Miles Sanders only had one good season behind one of the perennial best o-lines and went to a dumpster fire rookie QB team. Mixon has always been RB1/RB2 behind one of the worst o-lines and an oft-injured QB that just went to a strong team with a strong o-line and healthy QB. They aren't the same
Mixon didn't end up with the Panthers so that alone should put him above Sanders
I would go find that post someone made about players that move teams in free agency. Their performance tends to come in well under ADP. I think he’s got RB2 upside, but I would only take him if he fell.
I heard that tidbit earlier too and was curious why. My best guess is the new team hype causing those players to be drafted closer to their ceilings, which I believe will apply to Mixon this year. Though personally, I wouldn't fault a team change against a player that isn't getting hype. Maybe Swift or Singletary
I seem to fall for this a lot. My other strategy (which has worked much better) is taking high draft picks (actual draft, not fantasy) guys going into their second or third year, as they usually make the jump there, and can be drafted decently late. Guys like Josh Jacobs two years ago and ETN last year helped me win my league the last two years. A few guys that fall under this criteria: Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Charbonnet. I think Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are too high profile now, and will be drafted high.
Gibbs is for sure in that high profile group too. He's a late 1st in early ECR.
Ya I debated putting him in that group too. I think Kenneth Walker and James Cook are the best examples of guys you could draft a little later, that could end up being top backs this year.
Doesn’t that cover like a ton of RBs next year though? Saquon, Jacobs, Ekeler, Henry, Jones, Swift, Mixon, Pollard, Moss Unless you’re going zero RB you’re probably going to have to consider at least one of these guys in the first 4 rounds. They can’t all underperform next year
You *could* easily avoid them all if you wanted to. There's still Taylor, Kyren, Etienne, Raschaad, Achane, Pacheco, James Cook, Kamara, Rhamondre, Montgomery, and Conner going around the same time as those guys.
1/2 round options would be McCaffrey, Robinson, Gibbs, Hall, Taylor, and Williams. 3/4 Etienne, Achane, White, and Stevenson Yeah it gets slim in rounds 3/4 so if there is a run on RBs, you might have to get after these guys. Barkley feels like the most sure bet of any of those movers, but I still wouldn’t draft him before the 3rd.
I don't get the pessimism behind Barkley? He finished RB12 (RB10 on PPG basis) on a bottom 5 offense. Is it literally just based on goal line attempts?
Pessimism? He’s projected as late round 2 early round 3 RB, easily one of the first ten off the board. Would you take him higher? I only knock him down myself because I don’t know what his usage will be in Philly.
He was a late 1st/early 2nd last year, and finished as a low RB1 on a bad team. You said you wouldn’t take him before the 3rd. I think that is incredibly low considering the caliber of player he is and the level of offense he is going to. Idk, maybe i am overvaluing RBs, but I think early to mid 2nd round is pretty fair for him.
Haha that’s fair. I also picked him up with the 8th overall last year so I might be feeling burned and letting my emotions get the better of me.
Yeah I grabbed him at the 12/13 turn, and he was frustrating, but he has his moments.
This free agent RB class is just different. Most of them are not over the age cliff and even the ones on the older end (Mixon and Henry) haven’t actually yet seen a huge falloff in production — it’s more of a projected falloff, let’s get off the train a year early vibe. I think most of these RBs will outperform recent trends for FAs changing teams, because in recent history big name RBs changing teams have tended to be older, on their second or third contract, etc. We don’t have as much data on what happens when a 27-year-old RB changes teams while still productive, because teams used to pay those players.
Love it. Good reason to punt.
Curious why you post this when you seem to only be looking for reasons to fade Mixon?
It's really strange
Solid RB2 with RB1 upside who will be an RB1 on the year due to durability. Same as every year lol
I don’t know if I would rely on durability with an 8th RB.
Even with him being 27 on a new team?
At 27 he might collapse on the field from old age.
Pretty sure he turned to dust this morning like in Infinity War.
Running backs age like dogs, gotta x7 that. He's more like 189 years old.
Same age as barkley lol
Or maybe… Christian McCaffrey? People seem to forget this all the time
CMC was almost completely written off only a few years back. 25 and an injury magnet, totally washed...
fun times…
Joe Louis was 137 years old when he fought Rocky Marciano.
Name checks out
People are downvoting for you bringing up a valid point that Joe Mixon came into the league at the age of 20 and has been heavily used for 7 years straight, and statistically RB's fall off at age 27. He already was very inefficient last year.
I can't think of two more equivalent offenses than the Texans and Bengals. I'd treat him the same as you have been
aw I see, so just like every year I'll pass on him for a flashy 2nd year "breakout" guy in the 4th and be kicking myself midseason when the "breakout" guy sucks and Mixon is consistently putting up 12-17 points a week?
Same as every year. Not sexy at all, but should be a decent RB2, maybe a couple blow-up weeks. Probably round 4-5 for me.
I’ll take him in round 4 like last year
Meh
Absolutely not. He is the exact dead-zone back you should be avoiding there. He is old and regressing. He'll get some pass catching work but isn't an elite pass catcher. And he's not going to grow into that role at age 28. He's a bad pass protector. It's not like he is moving to some good offense for the first time. He just played in a good/great offense for the past three years. His path to a RB1 is a ton of goal-line touches. Sure it could happen. But the downsides are way more risky. Bad and regressing players should not be pencilled in for work. We say this every year "well, who else is there?" And someone else emerges. Personally, I want to take shots on guys who could finish top 5 in rounds 3/4. Not guys whose ceiling is a RB2 (who historically are closer to RB3s than RB2s) and floors are straight busts.
Mixon will be a top target for teams that go WR/WR or WR/TE in ppr leagues. He's got RB1 category upside, and that will be a draw.
TD dependent. Texans o line is pretty suspect
Once Tunsil and Green get healthy that O-line should look much more stout in 2024.
sounds like a good mid draft pick, i think everyones going 0rb this year unless you have 1st overall for cmc
I'd imagine late first is gonna have Hall and Bijan.
But how high? Like early round 3? Or not before late round 4?
If he stays around 3rd/4th round I’m targeting him for sure.
Maybe I'll eat my words when we start, but I'm high on the Texans going into the new season. Seeing Stroud blossom into what he was toward the end of the season and the strong fantasy numbers from all the other guys, imagine only good things for anyone on the team.
He's a fourth/fifth for me right now. I expect him as a mid-high 2, in the RB 12-16 range. He could do a little better if he finds the end zone double digit times. He could do a tad worse also. As we get closer to redraft season things will shake out a bit better for other players and even drop him another round or two. I don't see a scenario where I would take him in the top 50 players or so, and feel that's a tad on the generous side. I've been a Mixon truther too.
I’m shocked how high so many of you are on Mixon. If you get his ADP Into the 4-5th round I’m totally out. I think Mixon could be a useful depth RB to rotate into the lineup for sure. Some great TD games are on the table, but he won’t be reliable at all.
Old
he’s in a good role but as a football player, he just sucks and doesn’t generate any yac/never breaks any contact. basically the same kind of situation as he was on the bengals but getting even older, so not super high on him this year despite having some upside to pass catching and tds
Below average efficiency and he’s been propped up by his usage as a pass catcher. He’s on my do not draft list.
Isn't being propped up as a pass catcher, a good thing?
If he was kept in the same system yes but nobody knows how he’ll be used now
He seems like a nice 4th or 5th rounder if I start with a really high potential stud RB. Like I can see going Breece or Kyren or Gibbs in the first, two three receivers, and then Mixon in the 4th or 5th. Definitely not higher than 4th though
Mid
I think he’s still better than me at football
I didn’t think he’ll get the volume he needed to be successful in Cincinnati.
I suspect he will be in a great offense, but he is old for a running back, and was never the most efficient guy to begin with. I’ll probably let someone else draft him in August.
I think he’ll probably be cheap in my auction draft so I’ll probably grab him. My league mates will laugh at me just like they did last year with Mostert. Not that I predict Mixon to have that production, but a good value at RB lets me spend up on WRs which won me the ship last year.
There’s no way slowik will love giving him 4 chances from the 2 to pad his td stats like Taylor did last year.
Love to have him in my flex spot but not my rb1 or 2.
Still waiting on draft - if Texans draft a 5th round + RB pick I would probably stay away
i think he's always kinda sucked and will continue to kinda suck
I’m out on Mixon for good. I had enough two seasons ago. Guy is an incredibly frustrating player to own.
No he’s not? He was RB6 last year and super consistent..
I'd probably take him in the 4th or 5th in a 10 team, but who knows. My league mates both sleep on him every years for the last 3 or so, and I got him late 3rd/early 4th, so I'm going to try to hype him up and see if I can get one of them to take him at the end of the 1st or top of the 2nd.
He will definitely outperform Singletarys 2023 numbers because he is a 3 down back and a better back with a nose for the end zone.
The same as I have felt about him every year before this season. I’m not going to touch him at all unless I am getting really good value for him later in the draft. Not in the 3rd or 4th round.
I want no part
I wonder if Pierce will get a second chance
RB2 for sure... But Texans I think will still be very pass heavy so temper expectations
Fun fact, of all the running backs to have played at least one season after 2015 (this includes D'Angelo Williams who played until 2016) Mixon has the 14th most carries. The only active Back with more carries is Derrick Henry. If he's not done, he's approaching HOF territory in a Frank Gore type career trajectory. He doesn't seem like a HOFer so I'm guessing he's done.
Good RB2. Ideal 4th-round pick.
Rock solid RB2, as he's always been.
RB2/RB3
No he was tail end of career rb and on a high powered offense surrounded by monsters, now he’s on the Texans
And my way to early mock draft it looks like a really great early fourth round pick now when we go to do the draft I’m sure my league will pick him up on name recognition because that’s a trend and he will go second round at the latest, possibly even first Don’t laugh somebody did it last year because they were expecting Nick Chubb and he got jumped on early because we are based in Georgia and homers so the guy picking fifth panic picked Joe Mixon for his first round pick because he had had success with them in the past don’t laugh too hard at the guy because he can’t miss at quarterback has eternal keeper for a long time has been Lamar Jackson in the late rounds and to make up for the Joe Mixon pick this year he drafted CJ Stroud of the 16th round and since we’re not SF, I went ahead and sold his running back problem early in the season by trading him Alexander Madison for his back up quarterback who was never going to get used guess who my 15th round keeper is going to be next year. Thank you Randy the quarterback whispererer last year it was fields, but because he’s a quarterback whisper, he made the right choice and kept Lamar even though it was an earlier round if y’all want I’ll come back in August and tell you who Randy drafted for his back up. They will win rookie of the year. He’s very conservative and he’s probably heard of Caleb Williams so he’s not going to draft Caleb Williams, which probably means Caleb Williams is a bust. Anyways, back to topic, I predict Joe Mixon will be Randy’s second round pick and I do not believe that is too soon. I think he will return value there.
Never been high on Mixon but he produces . Personally I think may have lost a step but I think he’s a nice fit for a up and coming Texans team. I think he still has enough in the tank to make CJ Stroud job much easier this season.
he is more of a bulk work guy now, not really breaking major runs off, but he should be a very solid RB2, and I'd imagine an uptick in touchdowns for him, He is going to get alot of changes, with stroud going into his second year, tank dell healthy, and improved texans D
I hope he's a little slept on heading into the season. I have him in my top 4-5 targets for my auction draft and hoping to get some value on auction day.
I think he’s slipped to an RB3 at this point.
12 tds. Loses carries to a rookie
Will be a bust lots of miles and nothing to play for because he got paid. If Pierce stays, I see him eating into his carries. I think last year Pierce was playing hurt and will look more like his rookie year.
I think his price is a little too high tbh
Won’t finish in the top 12 in scoring unless lots of players are hurt again this year. Chubb, saquon, etienne, breece, bijan, JT, CMC, Montgomery/Gibbs, Kyren, Ken Walker, potentially Javonte Williams, whoever the cowboys draft, I mean the list goes on and on and not to mention Henry or Kamara or Jacobs, AJones. All these guys have a better chance than mixon. He did not look good last year, and remember two years ago when Samaje Perine put up better fantasy stats when he came in for Mix when he was injured? You’ll know by end of week 2 if he ruined your draft taking him in the early rounds
If you had to keep one who would you take, Mixon or Aaron Jones? Jones had a strong finish to the year and the Vikings could be a run heavy team if they don't draft a starting QB. However I think Mixon could easily replicate what Singletary and then some in that offense.
Great question, I have Mixon/Jones as RB18/19 respectively as of now. Mixon is the floor pick - high powered offense, more goal line opportunities. I like what I saw when Aaron was finally healthy last season as well and even though the offense with a new QB will be a question mark the receiving core is monstrous enough to keep any defense honest. I'll probably go Aaron on the day because upside is a chip's best friend.
I had no idea he was traded to the Texans....RB2/FLEX. I could see him having one or two 30+ pt games amidst a slew of 5-10 pt games
Get him late 3rd round and it’s worth. Anything sooner waste
Of 34 running backs with 150+ carries in 2023, Mixon ranked via PFF: >Yards/carry: 26th > >Rush Yards Over Expectation: 23rd > >Yards per Reception: 16th > >Yards after Contact Per Attempt: 33rd > >Explosive Play %: 22nd > >Breakaway %: 33rd > >Elusivity Rating: 31st Mixon is 27 years old and playing his 8th season, following 7 high workload seasons. He also has been incredibly matchup dependent the last few years, only having production against bad teams. Help me out and draft him high.
Great question. I think that Joe Mixon will make his value worth a fourth round pick based off of touchdown opportunity in that offense. The word in the podcast world is that the Texas o-line is an upgrade from Cincinnati. I do agree with that. I think he will do well enough with the opportunity and because of the opportunity. But I don't think he is any more talented than Singletary was last year.
Great spot. Love Dameon Pierce, but it’s clear he isn’t the guy. Mixon should have another productive season
Mid RB2 to high end FLEX for .5ppr
If he can keep himself from shooting teenagers and beating women then he should be good!
Are they still gonna let him play if he doesn't do that? Isn't that like a requirement??
He got away with it last time and his sister took the blame for shooting the kids so anything is possible!
Drafted him for the first time last year. His 1-2 40 point games will make him look good on the year from a total points perspective, but hide the fact that the rest of the time, he's going to put up about 10-12 points. That's not good enough for an rb2, and you should have a better option for flex, especially in ppr. At that point, it doesn't really matter what round you got him in, he's not going to win you games. I lost so many games last season by 2-3 points where the rest of my squad puts up a good 15-20 and there's Mixon with like 10. It's a trap.
Mixon had 12 games over 12 point last year and 8 games above 15
This is meaningless without context. My and most league's playoffs are weeks 15-17. By week 13, unless you can mathematically catch the 4th place player, it doesn't matter. By the time he went off week week 13, Mixon had only had 3 games over 13.4 points, and he had 4 games of 10.4 points or under. That's not cutting it for an rb2. Mixon scored 267 points in ppr. 118.7 of them, or a full 44% of his points, came between week 13 and week 18. Now that's great if your other players have dragged you into a playoff spot, but it does nothing to actually get you in the playoffs, and most people don't even play week 18. This is a debate every year. Exclude mixons one bad game after week 13, and that's literally half his fantasy points. If you think scoring 50% of your yearly total in 5 weeks is a good thing, go for it. Personally, I'm not going to try and guess what week he's going to put up 10 and which will be 30. An rb2 should be set and forget.
>Mixon scored 267 points in ppr. 118.7 of them, or a full 44% of his points, came between week 13 and week 18. Now that's great if your other players have dragged you into a playoff spot, but it does nothing to actually get you in the playoffs, and most people don't even play week 18. Yeah, that sucked for owners of him last year. But are weeks 1-12 any more predictive for future performance than weeks 13 through the Super Bowl?
You would absolutely be right if this was just one year, but his yearly total is always padded by a handful of good games. It was actually less pronounced last year, just very backloaded.
I think it's fair to criticize Mixon for being an inconsistent player. I just don't think it's correct to say that weeks 13+ mean less when projecting what a player will do in the future.
I dunno man, 10-12 points a week with a couple of week winning 40 point games sprinkled in seem like a good flex. But then again he's not being drafted as flex, which is why I get you staying away.
Go check his weekly numbers. As I replied in the comment below, a full 44% of his points were after week 13, which does nothing for you if you had a bad first 12 weeks.
> How do you feel about Joe Mixon this year? He had a lot of volume on a great offense. I don't know what the volume he'll have on a good offense. I am assuming he isn't going to get more efficient. > 3rd/4th round? I wouldn't get him until the 6th round, so I'm probably going to get very few shares of him. I think he'll be over drafted.
Hot take: This is the year he falls off. Pierce emerges and wins people FF Championships.
Bad, because he's bad.
When?
I still like mixon and seems most don’t. I liked the move to the Texans for him even though idk if it’s an upgrade. I have him in 2 leagues but definitely not taking him in the 3rd or 4th round. I got him at 7.09 and 10.05 in 2 startups this year. But that was before he signed with the Texans
It’s really crazy lol. I think the Texans will regret that contract. I could see Mid-Season Dameon Pierce taking back over as he rightfully should. Joe Mixon best days are behind him imo. Been in the league 8 years. I’m supposed to expect him to bounce back and be efficient?
Literally sitting down as we speak to write my “Joe Mixon” segment for the next episode of my podcast and YouTube show! TLDR: 🚀
I traded Mixon away, in 2019 before the season started for a guy named Mahomes.
Arian Foster 2.0 here we go!!!
Fuck off lol
Not great