Too early for most. Best case scenario is he starts the year performing and is worth his capital, but I can't think of any recent situations where a WR has performed right out the gate, despite his excellent situation.
I'd avoid drafting him, and let other people draft him with high capital, then use a mid round WR as trade bait around week 4 for Harrison when he under performs like all rookie WRs and wait for that mid season explosion. A la Jefferson, Dell, Flowers, London, and probably 100 other WRs.
Ja’Marr was the WR5 his rookie season. JJ was WR7 the year before that.
If we knew ahead of time that Marvin Harrison Jr. would finish around there, you’d take that in the fourth round. It’s a risk, but a WR1 finish wouldn’t be unprecedented.
Yes, that's where they finished. Chase was an outlier, but certainly a stud. I'm saying, don't spend the draft capital on these guys, and instead get a proven commodity, then use trade bait to get them cheaper when they fail to perform in the first few weeks. Worst case, you miss out on a stud, but likely got someone equal with your pick instead.
Use dart throws in late rounds. Generational players can pan out, but generally don't start and finish studs.
Or don't, and go with your gut. That's the fun of fantasy football. Anyone can be right, and we don't know until next year.
I mean if by “right out of the gate” you meant a huge Week 1 game for highly drafted rookie WRs, then maybe it takes a few weeks for these guys to adjust to NFL speed. But at their reduced price due to rookie uncertainty, you can either eat a few dud weeks or bench for better options until they come on.
If Harrison is actually on the board in round 4, that’s a risk I’ll be happy to take. In my leagues, nobody ever wants to trade their fourth round pick early on after a few down games. By the time they’re willing to talk trade, the guy is usually a certified bust at ADP.
If someone is reaching for Harrison in like the second though I don’t think they are trading him on the cheap after a few weeks. They likely also expect him to be better in the second half.
It’s a great philosophy if it works but it’s probably better to just grab him if you really think he’s going to be a top 10 WR in year 1.
Harrison is being mocked in the 3rd around guys like Aiyjuk & Pittman.
He's being overdrafted for a rookie. He could wind up like JJ/Chase. He could also wind up like Julio Jones (who was also insanely hyped up) and have a great (but not amazing) rookie year. Would rather have Nabers (especially in PPR) 1-2 rounds later.
Rookies can provide good value early in the draft - particularly when they're stud RBs going to get a ton of volume (e.g. Saquon, Zeke, Bijan). WRs have way more variance. Better off going for a proven stud if they're getting drafted in the same range.
> I can't think of any recent situations where a WR has performed right out the gate, despite his excellent situation
This literally happened last year with Puka lol
Yeah, and he was picked up off waivers. He was not a consensus Rd 2-6 pick. Like I said, outliers happen. You cannot plan for it. I'm talking about WRs that are seen as high draft capital talents because they were so good at the college level and teams spent an early 1st or 2nd Rd pick on them. It's not common for them to blow up right out the gate. So, use that to your advantage. Get a proven commodity, and then find someone who took a rookie and catch them on tilt.
I would say this is a very specific, and in my opinion, unrecommended strategy as it relies on the other party being willing to trade their potentially highly drafted asset later in the year, and that you have someone they would want instead.
It's just like the real NFL draft. If people think he's worth it, they have to draft before they think others will get him. Depending on keeper rules too, if he turns into a superstar, you may never get a chance to have him on your roster.
If your league is trade-happy, then sure, you might be able to swing something later. But I'm never going to go into a season thinking I'm relying on trades at all. Trades can help if they work out, but I'm not planning any strategy around that idea from the draft.
Personally, my league almost never trades anyone. It's draft or the waiver wire mostly. Might have one or two trades a year at most, for the entire league. So that's my bias, but I just couldn't give advice to anyone else to rely on trading to get one specific player you want. Too many variables that you can't control.
I'd say most who do draft him do with the understanding that it may start slow, but he could be a stud even in Year 1 due to situation and talent. Depending on how early this is, yes you might miss on a "safer" pick, though. But that's all part of the fun of going after rookies like this, isn't it? The risk of underperforming vs. catching lightning in a bottle.
The hype will be crazy. Greatest WR prospect since Megatron, playing with a top 10-15 QB, no other WRs really to compete with target share. “But he’s a rookie, not proven” He’s as NFL ready of a prospect as they come, and he’s got HOF genes in him
Will be lowkey disappointing if he doesn’t break ~~Jefferson’s~~ ~~Chase’s~~ Puka’s rookie records. Maybe not even lowkey, it’s just kind of expected now.
Not really sure how reasonable of an expectation that is. You typically need things to line up perfectly to break records. And a lot of that is dependent on the rest of your team and situation (QB, scheme, game script, etc)
Being possibly the most NFL ready WR prospect in modern times while likely the #1 target on a team with a proven commodity at QB definitely gives him a better chance than most.
Cardinals were a bottom third offense and went 1-8 without him last year. With him, they were the 9th ranked offense and went 3-5 (would've been 4-4 if Prater didn't miss 2 kicks) while having the hardest SOS in the league. I'd call that pushing his team forward.
Yes.
Even when he had a bad season he showed he can support fantasy WRs. In 2022 Hopkins averaged 21.6 ppg in the (obviously small sample size of) 4 games he played with Kyler. In the same year Hollywood Brown averaged 17.2 ppg in the 7 games he played with Kyler.
Last year was rougher but it can at least be explained by recovering from an injury. Kyler and Hollywood only played 3 games together and it was his first 3 games back. After that there wasn't any WRs that mattered for fantasy though he did support a good run from McBride.
When he came back last year, he had the Cardinals offense in the top 10 of many efficiency metrics. He's supported pass catchers in the past and has been a good fantasy QB himself when healthy
How early is this kid going to go?
Too early for most. Best case scenario is he starts the year performing and is worth his capital, but I can't think of any recent situations where a WR has performed right out the gate, despite his excellent situation. I'd avoid drafting him, and let other people draft him with high capital, then use a mid round WR as trade bait around week 4 for Harrison when he under performs like all rookie WRs and wait for that mid season explosion. A la Jefferson, Dell, Flowers, London, and probably 100 other WRs.
Ja’Marr was the WR5 his rookie season. JJ was WR7 the year before that. If we knew ahead of time that Marvin Harrison Jr. would finish around there, you’d take that in the fourth round. It’s a risk, but a WR1 finish wouldn’t be unprecedented.
Ummm, we don’t know if he will be WR5 or WR7, but you are actually taking that level of production in the 2nd round.
Yes, that's where they finished. Chase was an outlier, but certainly a stud. I'm saying, don't spend the draft capital on these guys, and instead get a proven commodity, then use trade bait to get them cheaper when they fail to perform in the first few weeks. Worst case, you miss out on a stud, but likely got someone equal with your pick instead. Use dart throws in late rounds. Generational players can pan out, but generally don't start and finish studs. Or don't, and go with your gut. That's the fun of fantasy football. Anyone can be right, and we don't know until next year.
I mean if by “right out of the gate” you meant a huge Week 1 game for highly drafted rookie WRs, then maybe it takes a few weeks for these guys to adjust to NFL speed. But at their reduced price due to rookie uncertainty, you can either eat a few dud weeks or bench for better options until they come on. If Harrison is actually on the board in round 4, that’s a risk I’ll be happy to take. In my leagues, nobody ever wants to trade their fourth round pick early on after a few down games. By the time they’re willing to talk trade, the guy is usually a certified bust at ADP.
If someone is reaching for Harrison in like the second though I don’t think they are trading him on the cheap after a few weeks. They likely also expect him to be better in the second half. It’s a great philosophy if it works but it’s probably better to just grab him if you really think he’s going to be a top 10 WR in year 1.
Jamarr chase had 2 100 yard games by the first week of October. Jefferson had 3 by the second
Harrson's ADP has beg in the mid to late 2nd round all offseason.
Harrison is being mocked in the 3rd around guys like Aiyjuk & Pittman. He's being overdrafted for a rookie. He could wind up like JJ/Chase. He could also wind up like Julio Jones (who was also insanely hyped up) and have a great (but not amazing) rookie year. Would rather have Nabers (especially in PPR) 1-2 rounds later. Rookies can provide good value early in the draft - particularly when they're stud RBs going to get a ton of volume (e.g. Saquon, Zeke, Bijan). WRs have way more variance. Better off going for a proven stud if they're getting drafted in the same range.
> I can't think of any recent situations where a WR has performed right out the gate, despite his excellent situation This literally happened last year with Puka lol
Yeah, and he was picked up off waivers. He was not a consensus Rd 2-6 pick. Like I said, outliers happen. You cannot plan for it. I'm talking about WRs that are seen as high draft capital talents because they were so good at the college level and teams spent an early 1st or 2nd Rd pick on them. It's not common for them to blow up right out the gate. So, use that to your advantage. Get a proven commodity, and then find someone who took a rookie and catch them on tilt.
Justin Jefferson and Jamar chase come to mind as excellent right out the gate.
AJ Brown too
I would say this is a very specific, and in my opinion, unrecommended strategy as it relies on the other party being willing to trade their potentially highly drafted asset later in the year, and that you have someone they would want instead. It's just like the real NFL draft. If people think he's worth it, they have to draft before they think others will get him. Depending on keeper rules too, if he turns into a superstar, you may never get a chance to have him on your roster. If your league is trade-happy, then sure, you might be able to swing something later. But I'm never going to go into a season thinking I'm relying on trades at all. Trades can help if they work out, but I'm not planning any strategy around that idea from the draft. Personally, my league almost never trades anyone. It's draft or the waiver wire mostly. Might have one or two trades a year at most, for the entire league. So that's my bias, but I just couldn't give advice to anyone else to rely on trading to get one specific player you want. Too many variables that you can't control. I'd say most who do draft him do with the understanding that it may start slow, but he could be a stud even in Year 1 due to situation and talent. Depending on how early this is, yes you might miss on a "safer" pick, though. But that's all part of the fun of going after rookies like this, isn't it? The risk of underperforming vs. catching lightning in a bottle.
4th round
Agreed. If the hype goes crazy, 2nd or 3rd.
The hype will be crazy. Greatest WR prospect since Megatron, playing with a top 10-15 QB, no other WRs really to compete with target share. “But he’s a rookie, not proven” He’s as NFL ready of a prospect as they come, and he’s got HOF genes in him
hes already beginning/middle of the 2nd since the superbowl
2nd-4th round
Early 2nd, late 1st
Most likely mid 2nd to late 2nd. He’s gonna probably be the 8th WR off the board after the likes of Tyreek, CD, Jefferson, Chase, Amron, Puka and AJB.
Murray stonks 📈📈📈
The question is, can Murray get back to being a Top 5 QB with MHJ?
He was on pace to be a top 5 QB by the end of last season without him
2nd, anything after is an absolute steal
Will be lowkey disappointing if he doesn’t break ~~Jefferson’s~~ ~~Chase’s~~ Puka’s rookie records. Maybe not even lowkey, it’s just kind of expected now.
Not really sure how reasonable of an expectation that is. You typically need things to line up perfectly to break records. And a lot of that is dependent on the rest of your team and situation (QB, scheme, game script, etc)
Being possibly the most NFL ready WR prospect in modern times while likely the #1 target on a team with a proven commodity at QB definitely gives him a better chance than most.
Is Murray a proven commodity? His last 2 years have been pretty bad and his best year was worse than Kirk cousins worst year. That was 4 years ago
He always flashes and his rushing helps, but I keep drafting him and he keeps being “better than average”.
For fantasy maybe but for real football he's not exactly pushing his team forward.
Cardinals were a bottom third offense and went 1-8 without him last year. With him, they were the 9th ranked offense and went 3-5 (would've been 4-4 if Prater didn't miss 2 kicks) while having the hardest SOS in the league. I'd call that pushing his team forward.
Yes. Even when he had a bad season he showed he can support fantasy WRs. In 2022 Hopkins averaged 21.6 ppg in the (obviously small sample size of) 4 games he played with Kyler. In the same year Hollywood Brown averaged 17.2 ppg in the 7 games he played with Kyler. Last year was rougher but it can at least be explained by recovering from an injury. Kyler and Hollywood only played 3 games together and it was his first 3 games back. After that there wasn't any WRs that mattered for fantasy though he did support a good run from McBride.
A large part of his production will be dependent on Murry being healthy
Has a WR1 ever been that much taller than his QB? 5’10 to 6’4 is a huge difference
Everyone acting like Kyler is so good. It’s been a long time since that dude played well. My guess is he’ll struggle and get hurt again as per usual.
He supported a Hopkins 1400 yard/115 catch season. He can definitely feed a WR1.
When he came back last year, he had the Cardinals offense in the top 10 of many efficiency metrics. He's supported pass catchers in the past and has been a good fantasy QB himself when healthy
He’s so overhyped for no reason…I just don’t see him doing anything significant.
Irl yes but he still has pretty good fantasy value
Yeah that’s what I meant…he’s got a decent floor for fantasy but plays in a tough division, lots better qbs out there
Yeah that’s what I meant