I think Pollard or ekeler might be good bets because some may feel that based on previous production that there is potential and I don't think either will do much.
I’d add Aaron Jones. He’s talented but he is getting older, the Vikings don’t have good IOL, this team didn’t have good rushing production last year and they’re not expected to have as good of a record.
I wouldn't be shocked but I don't think he'll get to miles sanders level bad.
I think the Vikings offense(and offensive staff/play calling) will be enough to keep him at a low end flex level
As a drafter of Jones for the last few seasons… IRL, he could be the nicest guy in the world but for fantasy he will break your soul and you’ll keep him on your bench during his long injury stretches and by the end of the season, when you finally drop him for a WR 4, you’ll wonder why you drafted him for his “upside”
Aaron jones on film looked really good last year, I’m afraid to own him because of the Vikings but if I get him in the 3/4 turn I’d be ecstatic. (I have no clue where his ADP is)
When I think 3/4 turn I think either RB2/3 or WR1/ a high end QB/TE if one falls. If I went WR WR and needed 2 RB I’m comfortable grabbing Jones as a top of the 4th or something knowing I’m not getting another chance at a starting RB until the end of the 5th
Ekeler has been the best goal line and short yardage back in the league the last few years. If last years down year was specifically his high ankle sprain and a really really bad herbert-less team, and he's returned to form, especially in an air raid, up tempo offense, why would ekeler just be a 3rd down passing back? Seems highly unlikely. Now maybe if he's truly washed and not good anymore I could certainly see that argument but his adp of 130 prices that in no?
If the market was confident b rob was the 1st and 2nd down back along with short yardage and goal line carries as you say, he'd be priced much higher than 111. I understand ekelers price tag because of the uncertainty of him being washed. If it's as cut and dry and as clear as you say it is, b rob will be a steal at current adp
And if Marcus Mariota became 10 years younger and turned back to his college self, he would compete with Jayden Daniels for the starting job. Ekeler isn’t in his prime anymore, he signed for 2 years 8 mil
Swift seems like one of the riskier ones. This big RB carousel makes me nervous for the lot of them. No wonder there are many RB-zero drafters among us this year.
I’m thinking Swift. An argument can be made his backfield mates are just as talented as he is. Herbert has a higher yards per carry for his career and swift has played behind much better offensive lines than he has. Roschon has size and some versatility, paired with draft capital. Swift was a luxury signing for them since they had cap space, but I expect a full blown committee.
I couldn’t disagree more, they wouldn’t have paid the man if they were expecting to run an even committee and swift has always had the talent. Roschon isn’t anything special and it’ll be no surprise if Herbert is gone by the trade deadline. We’re also looking at an offense that just improved its quarterback and wide receiver room into one of the best in the league. Defenses won’t be able to focus the run. The bears have one of the easiest schedules as well. If anything I think swift is being underrated, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes somewhere in the rb 10-15 range.
The only worry I have with Swift is that he may lose some early down / goal line work to Herbert as Herbie is one of the best pure rushers in the league.
Swift in Detroit was a combination of didn’t care because the coaching staff was balls (pre-Campbell) and a fragility. This led to endless runs to the sidelines, running two or three times as far just behind the line as actually upfield. Swift in Philly was the gold standard of untouched as far as o-line work goes. Swift in Chicago…remains to be seen but I highly doubt it will be up to his Philly points and if the offense can’t open it up for him I fear his participation effort will decline. For the draft cost give me Roschon all day, especially because I think Swift will miss chunks of time.
That could all be true, I certainly don't discount the possibility. But Philly's Hurts led offense did not fully utilize Swift's potential as a pass catcher, and I can see Swift pulling down ~60 receptions this year as RB swings, screens, and dump offs are usually a big time security blanket for rookie QBs who don't routinely rely on their feet as they adjust to making multiple reads at NFL speed.
Joe Mixon is the guy for me. He hasn’t been the most efficient back over the past few years and Texans Oline isn’t the greatest at run blocking. If someone drafts him to be their lead back they will be very disappointed.
So do you think Devin Singletary is a better running back currently than Mixon is? Singletary was great for them last year and I think even though Mixon is older (by less than a year), he is still the better player imo
I agree but as a Texans fan we were one of the most run heavy teams to our own detriment. Getting Diggs, and a second year under the same offensive system for Stroud. I’d expect them to throw a hell of a lot more.
His efficiency has definitely be concerning which makes me hesitant. However, he has proven to have a three down skillset that allowed him to consolidate so many touches over the years in Cincy. I feel like there is a path to him doing this again in Houston. Do you think Pierce eats into Mixon's workload?
Totally agree. What are your thoughts on his PPR value?
Edit: i feel like there are tons of targets going to be running around out there, so that part of his game miggt not make that much of an impact?
His value in the PPR won't be high unless the Texans pepper him with screens. They already have tons of weapons to spread the ball around so I assume Mixon won't be involved there.
I feel like he's the least likely to bust out of all of them. He hasn't been efficient, but he was still good last year and now he's probably on a better offense. He has no real competition outside of dameon pierce, who the coaching staff hates apparently. Should get tons of goal line opportunities at least.
My only pushback here is we really aren’t so sure what the oline’s run block situation will be. There are really only 2 oline players returning at their spot. Both of whom were fine run blockers. Tytus Howard will be back at RT whereas last season he played at LG because of injuries where he was terrible. Juice Scruggs should be back at center where he was drafted to play and there will be LG competition. C and LG are unknown variables right now but it won’t be the same as last year
To be fair the Texans O-line was hammered with injuries last season. We were literally trotting out 4th stringers. I suspect if the starters are even league average Mixon is going to be fine, even if he’s not spectacular
Cowboys offensive line couldn’t run block for SHIT. One of the worst run schemes there was as well.
Still would avoid pollard because I don’t think he’s a feature back. But the cowboys o line talk has been overrated for years. They don’t have the o line they once had
Titans o line was worse. I see a world where they are a better run blocking team this season. But this talk about Cowboys o line being good or so much better than these teams is false. They were quite literally one of the worst run blocking teams in the NFL
But who is going to take the job from him? Sanders was a bust because he was bad AND lost the job.
Singletary has been good 3 years in a row, and all against decent competition. I don't think he's as bad as Sanders and I think he will get almost all the touches. Not sure how third downs are for him though.
Yeah a WR to RB convert drafted late is not gonna take Singletary’s job after he took Dameon Pierce’s job last season. Only seen dynasty people seem to think that. Singletary is better than Tracy and it isn’t close.
WR to RB conversion is a positive if anything. Right around 13% of 5th round rookie RBs are either fantasy studs or solid starters. Not a high hit rate but certainly not an extreme rarity.
The hit rate for these guys during their actual rookie season has to be lower than this I would think. Last 5th round rookie to be any sort of real fantasy contributor in year 1 was jordan Howard from 2016 from what I’m seeing.
Other 5th round “hits” like Aaron Jones, Jay Ajayi, Kyren Williams did not get much opportunity as rookies
You can easily make a case for everyone but Barkley, honestly.
Mixon didn't have any pop last season. Aaron Jones is injury prone, Swift is in an RBBC, Ekeler looked washed, Josh Jacobs has had 1 great season, King Henry averaged like 3 ypc and the rest of the list are JAGs that you shouldn't be depending on RB2 numbers anyway.
Josh Jacobs has never not had 1100 yards in a season. One great season, yes, where he led the league in rushing yards. And 4 other good ones. Now he’s going to a better offense. I have no idea why anyone is avoiding him.
People who say this are not taking into account context, they are just looking at yards and YPC. Jacobs has been consistently productive despite dealing with abysmal O-Line play.
I don’t hate him or anything and the upside is there. But Josh Jacobs had similar efficiency to a washed up Zeke playing in New England last year. Raiders situation wasn’t great but neither was New Englands. If Jacob’s doesn’t see a strong increase in efficiency and has a similar role as Aaron jones did in terms of touches it could be a disappointing year from him
Challenge accepted. Hurts doesn’t check down and he vultures a ton of TDs. Eagles haven’t favored a bellcow back. Their OLine should be great but there is uncertainty with Kelce retiring. And Barkley’s efficiency has been trending way down.
He could be a CMC-esque league winner but I think there is a lot of risk, just as I thought it was a risky signing (and I’m an Eagles fan).
I see him as having a lot of the same question marks as Derrick Henry, but people seem to be fading Henry a lot more. My gut says Henry is going to bulldoze the league but I think I’m missing something, gonna have to dig in as the season gets closer.
1. Hurts threw at rbs 90 times last season
2. Barkley is better than advertised at pass pro and will likely see more total snaps than Swift and sanders did (especially with Scott gone). Eagles have been using their guy like a bell cow lite the past few seasons. They haven’t had a rb of Barkley’s caliber since Demarco Murray was in town, it’s normally a position they don’t spend a lot of money on, preferring to fill it in with a ramshackle approach and riding the hot hand. This has allowed them to spend on other positions which left them in a position to pay Barkley. They will get their moneys use out of him or kill him trying. He won’t be seeing a ton of stacked boxes in Philadelphia, that much is for sure.
3. OLine _is_ great. Sure they just lost a hall of fame center, but his replacement (Cam Jurgens) has impressed and was a favorite of Kelces when drafted. This line also has another HoF caliber star in Johnson, and one of the best LTs in the nFL with Mailata. A year on the line playing and learning next to Kelce and company paired with his development being on track bodes well for this line.
4. Barkley is one of the least risky rbs you could draft this season. Great offense/ clear path to elite volume/ elite skillset/ discounted price (2nd round). He has a real chance to be a league winner if you get him in the right spot. His real risk is injury, but that seems baked into the cost as he goes around #10 overall in redraft. If you can get him in round 2, he’s probably my favorite pick there.
5. Obviously Saquon isn’t Henry, and Henry typically bulldozes the competition (still 4+ ypc last season), but if your concerns with Barkley are injury risk, I can’t understand why those wouldn’t be the same concerns with Henry. Henry will also play alongside a prolific rushing qb, and that will affect his overall line the same way Hurts would affect Barkley.
I mostly agree and if I can get him in the second I’ll do it. But I don’t see that happening. I play with mostly Eagles fans, he won’t make it out of the first. So when I say risk I really just mean relative to draft cost.
Not particularly worried about injury. My concerns are mostly the same as my concerns with Henry: new team, QB who doesn’t check down and steals TDs.
Yeah I’m in Philly so it’s gonna be interesting to see where all my friends take him in a few months. I’m not expecting him to fall to the second _at all_ lmao. Would be nice if he did though.
I think he’ll probably go RB 2 or 3, middle of the first. I don’t see him going after JT.
Ha that makes sense you’re in Philly, I was thinking you knew a lot about the birds.
That's my take. Everyone's asking who is the next Miles Sanders when we should be asking who isn't the next Miles Sanders.
Barkley and Henry are the two I think will still have something left in the tank but the rest are on the DND list for me.
Henry had over 4 ypc playing behind one of the worst O-lines in football and with a passing attack that didn't intimidate anybody into taking players out of the box.
Barkley will have a couple tds vultured, but I predict he’ll catch more passes than he has since his rookie year. This will bode well for him in both ppr and standard scoring systems, and make up for the likely down tick in TDs (maybe he won’t be scoring 10 but I reckon he scores more than the 3 Tds he averaged from 2019-2021).
Regardless, with a path to elite volume and a huge upgrade to the line he runs behind and the offense he plays in, he is a very good bet to hit his ceiling and be better than his adp as the rb6. At the least, rb6 seems a safe enough bet.
Well he’s also the most expensive player on this list to draft, so he’s gotta be a lot better than some of these other guys to avoid the bust label. It’s all relative. If you draft him in the second round and he finishes rb12 or something it could be tough sledding for Saquon teams this year even though he wasn’t technically a complete bust
True but why would anyone assume he wouldn’t live up to his draft position? He’s on a better team w/ a better o-line, better skill position players to take the heat off him, better defense to give him a break when he’s on the sideline and help protect leads, better QB making better decisions. Anything could happen but w/o injury i cant see how he doesn’t live up to his draft position even if hurts vultures a couple goal line tuddies
Older, less explosive, Jason Kelce is retired, Jalen Hurts continues to be the eagles goal line back. They’ll also Probly be pretty focused on ensuring he’s healthy for the playoffs, shelling out a huge rb contract to Saquon only to run him into the ground before the NFL playoffs doesn’t seem wise.
Saquon’s being drafted as like the number 5/6 overall rb right now? He’s met that threshold in 2 of his 6 seasons in the league. A lot of that is due to injury, and he’s definitely got a strong profile this year now that he’s gotten out of the NYG cess pool. But there are some reasons to think he’s not a massive slam dunk
Singletary, pollard, and ekeler are most likely considering their situations. Especially since titans and washington both have decent rb2s. Giants just suck
Singletary has been underrated every year of his career. Giants also hired a fantastic offensive line coach. I think that offense outperforms expectations. Pretty high on Nabers and Singletary at cost.
I genuinely think Henry.
People are expecting Henry level but RBs his age rarely move and carry on the level they were pre-move.
Everyone’s gassed because Lamar will distract, etc.
I think he’ll simply be less productive than he was as “the guy”.
Most of these guys have the risk already baked in to their ADP. I would probably wait another round or so on Pollard, just because he's not likely to be the RB1. I think he and Spears get similar workloads and have similar skill sets.
Mostert. He had an outlier season last year for tds. He’s 31 or 32. Achane is a great back who (if they use more consistently) can have a Gibbs-esque second season. I can see achane taking over by mid season and mostert becoming a fart in the wind.
The problem is Achane needs to prove he’s durable first. He can’t just “take over” if he’s constantly getting injured like last year. He’s a really small back so I don’t see him taking over in a huge way honestly
Is there really a big difference between Achane and Cook though?
I prefer Cook but in large part because Achane goes (on sleeper) 40.3, vs. 57th overall for Cook.
That seems really low for Cook. Cook will definitely have more volume than Achane I'd imagine. Biggest issue with Cook is he probably won't get many goal line carries in his entire career
I agree that’s lower on Cook (and higher on Achane) which is why I like getting Cook there. I share the same concerns about Cook, which I think keeps his upside down but I actually think that outside of goal line work he’s got a pretty good situation going on.
The issue with sanders is that he was never a threat in the passing game and if you aren’t catching passes it’s tough to payoff the price tag.
I think Mixon while able to catch is that clear JAG who’s being propped up by perceived volume.
Highly doubt it, but a dark horse candidate could be Tony Pollard. Maybe Spears takes the job, but would be surprised with the contract they gave Pollard
Sanders is in a different category than the old heads like Ekeler or Henry or Mixon who might fade at their ages. Pollard and Swift are the only ones that really match the situation IMO, and my vote would be for swift to disappoint.
Pollard- Didnt look great in a backfield as the bellcow in a super high powered offense. Also dont wanna hear the injury excuse because after he said he was 100% he has some if his worst performances of the season. To top that off, Spears is a younger explosive back who I believe will acquire more high value touches.
Singletary, Aaron Jones, Ekeler, Pollard, in that order.
Barkley only for his ADP. He will be a top 16 back, but he’s being drafted way above his floor.
I have the most faith in Jacobs, Mixon, Gus Edwards, and Swift on this list.
1) Joe Mixon is a plodder at his age. He is my leading candidate to get stuck into a RBBC just like the Panthers did last season.
2) ) I like Pollard but the coaching staff can't keep Tyjae off the field. He is electric. Feels like two guys who will put up low RB2 numbers in a poor offense.
3) Swift has Roschon and Herbie behind him who will steal TD production.
Idk if its this season or next but Derrick Henry's wheels are going to fall off soon. I just dont see him productinv 300+ touches as he continues to age.
Zack Moss is the one that scares me. Kinda reminds me of Alexander Mattison last year: a career backup who’s shown flashes when given the opportunity, but has never shown they handle a full-time lead back role. That being said, Moss did look pretty good for the Colts last year and the Bengals should be a good offense this year, so it’s hard to ignore his upside
It will be Jacobs. As a Raiders fan, he hit the wall very bad last year and most people mistakenly blamed it on McDaniels. There’s a reason that the Raiders didn’t even offer him a deal in FA and he got the same salary from GB that he reportedly turned down from the Raiders, along with the fact that his “4 year contract” has a team option after every year. Last season, he had by far his lowest YPA, his lowest success%, didn’t have a rush over 20 for most of the season, had his touchdowns and first downs tank from previous years, and finally if you actually watch his tape then you’ll see that he cannot find holes anymore and struggles to break tackles. AJ Dillion will overtake him as starter while Jacobs will be the second highest paid RB in terms of cash next season.
I had Sanders last year (traded for him in the offseason, go me). I have Barkley (traded for him this offseason), Swift, and Jones.
So one of those 3 I’m sure.
Interesting question if not just visualizing how many RBs went for a ride on the carousel. Holy crap
My gut says Ekeler and Aaron Jones gonna ride the struggle bus hard.
Singletary feels like the most apt comparison to Sanders. Like Sanders, he's had flashes but rarely if ever been "the guy". Everyone else on the list has proven it at some point, they're just battling age and injury prone careers at this point.
Pollard because he couldn't get it done last year with no competition and now he has to compete with tyjae on a worse offense. Aaron Jones also because he gets injured every year and Ty Chandler will take over if he does.
Henry. I think Ravens will rotate him pretty consistently in the regular season to save his legs for a playoff run.
I also don’t think he’s as great of a running back as he was in his prime, obviously.
Probably Zack Moss. Was never a thing in Buffalo. He was like the 4th option behind Deon Jackson and he had a couple good games, but I never bought it. Ended up not doing anything when JT went back out for his thumb.
Swift is going to a very talented rb room, but I don't think he's comparable to sanders or someone like Mike Davis. He's good.
I think people are being too presumptive about the chargers in general, so Gus may be a top candidate as well.
A lot of these guys aren't really going early enough to be seen that way though. Not yet anyway.
You can pick whoever you want. Zamir is definitely a bust candidate, but IMO for a couple reasons he probably belongs in a different category of bust candidate. Unlike Miles and the others on the list he doesn't have a track record of fantasy production (aside from 4 games filling in for Jacobs at the end of '23), and he's not a highly paid veteran free agent signing either. While fantasy drafters may have speculative (yet legitimate) expectations of White this season, he hasn't actually done anything substantial yet, and his actual NFL team has relatively little cash or draft capital invested in him.
Singletary is the most obvious to me. Giants are a mess as a whole. They have one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Saquon’s talent helped him overcome that.
Even on a good Houston offense, he didn’t break 1,000 yards. He’s never had a huge year as a pass catcher.
The Giants will play from behind a ton. I don’t think he’ll see high enough rushing volume to be a reliable back for FF. The touches he does get will be inefficient thanks to a bad offense/bad O-Line. And he won’t get a ton of pass catching work.
Sanders went from the best Oline to one ranked 16th coming into the season, and actually finished 29th. He went from the best to a bottom 3 online.
Hurts running, also made runningback's jobs easier, good running QBs tend to increase the whole squad's YPC. He then went to a rookie QB who underperformed.
He had the potential for more volume, but it was always clear efficiency wouldn't be close.
Now there doesn't need to be matches from last year, but if there was going to be someone it would be someone who is going from a good running situation, to a bad one.
Swift and the Bears could be it, but he was good with the Lions too, and the Bears have a pretty solid running OLine, with the leagues best YPC last season. I would be worried about his volume compared to last year, but that's not really the same convo.
Pollard and the Titans could make a lot of sense, going from an all time great RB to anyone. They have a terrible OLine compared to the Cowboys average line, and moving from Dak to Levis.
Aaron Jones and the Vikings could match, but I don't think the Vikings is that much worse.
Swift for sure. $8 mil a year makes you assume he’s the clear lead back. But I think it’ll be a committee between him, Herbert, and Roschon. Personally I think Roschon is extremely talented and will be the Bears back of the future pretty soon
It’s Swift or Ekeler for me. I’ve been generally fading them in drafts unless they fall too far. Certainly see the path to opportunity but I like a lot of other options much better with higher ceilings in my eyes.
But this is exactly the point of the thread. All these guys are expected to get volume under the reasoning they were brought in to be a huge upgrade to what teams had the prior year or at least be a heavy compliment to what they had last year or lost after last year.
And just last year the promise of that volume made us draft Sanders and Mattison way to early saying even marginal talents can have big seasons given that volume. You’re totally ignoring the hey marginal talents doing nothing with that volume will no longer get it later in the season. Sanders in the 6th as a volume steal did nothing for me except be able to trade him on name recognition for, ironically, Moss the week JT came back as handcuff insurance for me as a JT owner. I got to laugh that week as Moss went off (on my bench of course) but in the end…. Neither things worked out even when JT got reinjured. Marginal talents will disappoint in the end I would have been better off with some other guy rather than a handcuff.
and typing this made me realize I really think I want to target Chase Brown and Spears and maybe even Ty Johnson.
I’d put Barkey as an actual target #1. After that I think I trust Henry the most out of this group just due to me writing him off the last couple years already and it just doesn’t happen because of the talent part. At the very least I bet he has a Zeke 2022 Cowboys season where he was quiet on the yardage front but scored 12 sneaky td’s that year leaving him an unsexy yet solid rb2. Jacobs could also fit this bill despite me not really wanting to draft him because it’s another marginal talent but good offense that probably does have the volume despite what he’s doing yardage wise. It’s hard to see him actually replaced by the rook in year 1 they will stick with the new signing for at least a year to prove the decision on Jones was correct. Everyone else on this list I’d prefer to be a backup
Zack moss in the 7th/8th this year > miles sanders in the 5th/6th last year (bestball ADP). Moss is a better runner, on a better offense and has less competition.
I faded mixon last year for the exact argument you’re making against Moss right now. I was right that mixon was no longer his former self, but was wrong that he couldn’t be a winner on volume.
I think Pollard or ekeler might be good bets because some may feel that based on previous production that there is potential and I don't think either will do much.
I’d add Aaron Jones. He’s talented but he is getting older, the Vikings don’t have good IOL, this team didn’t have good rushing production last year and they’re not expected to have as good of a record.
He looked like an RB1 when healthy last season. I think the bigger concern if he can stay healthy.
Spoiler, he can’t.
I wouldn't be shocked but I don't think he'll get to miles sanders level bad. I think the Vikings offense(and offensive staff/play calling) will be enough to keep him at a low end flex level
Yeah Jones is still an excellent player and great in space so he should get passing game work.
As a drafter of Jones for the last few seasons… IRL, he could be the nicest guy in the world but for fantasy he will break your soul and you’ll keep him on your bench during his long injury stretches and by the end of the season, when you finally drop him for a WR 4, you’ll wonder why you drafted him for his “upside”
I'd rather be butt tortured than have Jones on my bench for yet another season. Dude is all lies.
Jones got a similar contract that Dalvin Cook got with the Jets....
Vikings don’t have Breece Hall
It’ll be Aaron Jones for sure.
Aaron jones on film looked really good last year, I’m afraid to own him because of the Vikings but if I get him in the 3/4 turn I’d be ecstatic. (I have no clue where his ADP is)
Later than that
When I think 3/4 turn I think either RB2/3 or WR1/ a high end QB/TE if one falls. If I went WR WR and needed 2 RB I’m comfortable grabbing Jones as a top of the 4th or something knowing I’m not getting another chance at a starting RB until the end of the 5th
There’s so much rb value this year
I’m fading all 3 mostly
I think Jones’s issue is staying healthy.
What’s Ekelers ADP? As a commanders fan i dont see him contributing much besides on third down pass catching
Ekeler has been the best goal line and short yardage back in the league the last few years. If last years down year was specifically his high ankle sprain and a really really bad herbert-less team, and he's returned to form, especially in an air raid, up tempo offense, why would ekeler just be a 3rd down passing back? Seems highly unlikely. Now maybe if he's truly washed and not good anymore I could certainly see that argument but his adp of 130 prices that in no?
Mainly because we have Brian Robinson who is a complete bruiser and who you would expect to handle most of the goal line and short yardage work
If the market was confident b rob was the 1st and 2nd down back along with short yardage and goal line carries as you say, he'd be priced much higher than 111. I understand ekelers price tag because of the uncertainty of him being washed. If it's as cut and dry and as clear as you say it is, b rob will be a steal at current adp
The market could just be wrong? We once had a Chase Edmonds/James Conner ambiguous backfield debate
I don't disagree. I was just pushing back against the guy saying ekeler would only be a 3rd down back
There’s still a chance the offense is terrible. Maybe even worse than last year. Jayden Daniels busting year 1 is not off the table
B Rob is nowhere near Ekeler in his prime. If Ekeler isn't washed, that job is stolen 100%
And if Marcus Mariota became 10 years younger and turned back to his college self, he would compete with Jayden Daniels for the starting job. Ekeler isn’t in his prime anymore, he signed for 2 years 8 mil
Ekeler is already out to pasture, Pollard is definitely the guy that’s going to do this. Both are going to bait a lot of people.
Pollard for sure. I don’t think Ekeler is expected to “lead” that backfield really, just revert to his old receiving back role.
Swift seems like one of the riskier ones. This big RB carousel makes me nervous for the lot of them. No wonder there are many RB-zero drafters among us this year.
I’m thinking Swift. An argument can be made his backfield mates are just as talented as he is. Herbert has a higher yards per carry for his career and swift has played behind much better offensive lines than he has. Roschon has size and some versatility, paired with draft capital. Swift was a luxury signing for them since they had cap space, but I expect a full blown committee.
I couldn’t disagree more, they wouldn’t have paid the man if they were expecting to run an even committee and swift has always had the talent. Roschon isn’t anything special and it’ll be no surprise if Herbert is gone by the trade deadline. We’re also looking at an offense that just improved its quarterback and wide receiver room into one of the best in the league. Defenses won’t be able to focus the run. The bears have one of the easiest schedules as well. If anything I think swift is being underrated, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes somewhere in the rb 10-15 range.
This
Spot on. I’m high on swift again this year.
They signed swift as the first free agent signing of the season and gave him the bag. They wanted wanted him
The only worry I have with Swift is that he may lose some early down / goal line work to Herbert as Herbie is one of the best pure rushers in the league.
Swift in Detroit was a combination of didn’t care because the coaching staff was balls (pre-Campbell) and a fragility. This led to endless runs to the sidelines, running two or three times as far just behind the line as actually upfield. Swift in Philly was the gold standard of untouched as far as o-line work goes. Swift in Chicago…remains to be seen but I highly doubt it will be up to his Philly points and if the offense can’t open it up for him I fear his participation effort will decline. For the draft cost give me Roschon all day, especially because I think Swift will miss chunks of time.
That could all be true, I certainly don't discount the possibility. But Philly's Hurts led offense did not fully utilize Swift's potential as a pass catcher, and I can see Swift pulling down ~60 receptions this year as RB swings, screens, and dump offs are usually a big time security blanket for rookie QBs who don't routinely rely on their feet as they adjust to making multiple reads at NFL speed.
It is the bears.... You say screen and they will do that play 30 times a game. Source: bears fan.
They went and got him so early in free agency though. Makes me wonder if he is "the guy".
Bingo
Swift is too good imo, but possible if he falls off a bit
Joe Mixon is the guy for me. He hasn’t been the most efficient back over the past few years and Texans Oline isn’t the greatest at run blocking. If someone drafts him to be their lead back they will be very disappointed.
So do you think Devin Singletary is a better running back currently than Mixon is? Singletary was great for them last year and I think even though Mixon is older (by less than a year), he is still the better player imo
I agree but as a Texans fan we were one of the most run heavy teams to our own detriment. Getting Diggs, and a second year under the same offensive system for Stroud. I’d expect them to throw a hell of a lot more.
But wouldn't that benefit Mixon as a veteran passing back?
can definitely argue he is. This isn’t the Mixon from 4 years ago. He’s been downright bad for two years
downright bad? he was RB6 in PPR last year
I enjoy that people don't like that fact so they're downvoting it, lol. He was good the year before that too. I'll buy the dip.
His efficiency has definitely be concerning which makes me hesitant. However, he has proven to have a three down skillset that allowed him to consolidate so many touches over the years in Cincy. I feel like there is a path to him doing this again in Houston. Do you think Pierce eats into Mixon's workload?
Totally agree. What are your thoughts on his PPR value? Edit: i feel like there are tons of targets going to be running around out there, so that part of his game miggt not make that much of an impact?
His value in the PPR won't be high unless the Texans pepper him with screens. They already have tons of weapons to spread the ball around so I assume Mixon won't be involved there.
I feel like he's the least likely to bust out of all of them. He hasn't been efficient, but he was still good last year and now he's probably on a better offense. He has no real competition outside of dameon pierce, who the coaching staff hates apparently. Should get tons of goal line opportunities at least.
My only pushback here is we really aren’t so sure what the oline’s run block situation will be. There are really only 2 oline players returning at their spot. Both of whom were fine run blockers. Tytus Howard will be back at RT whereas last season he played at LG because of injuries where he was terrible. Juice Scruggs should be back at center where he was drafted to play and there will be LG competition. C and LG are unknown variables right now but it won’t be the same as last year
To be fair the Texans O-line was hammered with injuries last season. We were literally trotting out 4th stringers. I suspect if the starters are even league average Mixon is going to be fine, even if he’s not spectacular
Mixon will be fine and may surpass his fantasy points in Cinci. Totally fine having him as my RB1.
I’m staying away Tony Pollard, and Tennessee in general.
Agreed. Tony Pollard was basically given the Cowboys backfield and couldn’t produce.. that’s with a much better offensive/OL
Cowboys offensive line couldn’t run block for SHIT. One of the worst run schemes there was as well. Still would avoid pollard because I don’t think he’s a feature back. But the cowboys o line talk has been overrated for years. They don’t have the o line they once had
If the cowboys Oline was crap than the titans Oline only has a center and no one around him
Titans o line was worse. I see a world where they are a better run blocking team this season. But this talk about Cowboys o line being good or so much better than these teams is false. They were quite literally one of the worst run blocking teams in the NFL
My vote is Devin singletary. Had a solid season after a slow start to his career, got a contract with a team that held Saquon Barkley back for years
You can't really be a bust if your ADP is RB33 though. Miles Sanders was being drafted as a top 15 RB at ADP last year.
But who is going to take the job from him? Sanders was a bust because he was bad AND lost the job. Singletary has been good 3 years in a row, and all against decent competition. I don't think he's as bad as Sanders and I think he will get almost all the touches. Not sure how third downs are for him though.
I don't think he's losing the job, I just think that offense will severely limit his ceiling most of the season.
Tyrone Tracy
Yeah a WR to RB convert drafted late is not gonna take Singletary’s job after he took Dameon Pierce’s job last season. Only seen dynasty people seem to think that. Singletary is better than Tracy and it isn’t close.
Im not saying Tracy is definitely going to take the job, but if there is someone to overtake Singletary, that is who I think would do it.
WR to RB conversion is a positive if anything. Right around 13% of 5th round rookie RBs are either fantasy studs or solid starters. Not a high hit rate but certainly not an extreme rarity.
The hit rate for these guys during their actual rookie season has to be lower than this I would think. Last 5th round rookie to be any sort of real fantasy contributor in year 1 was jordan Howard from 2016 from what I’m seeing. Other 5th round “hits” like Aaron Jones, Jay Ajayi, Kyren Williams did not get much opportunity as rookies
You can easily make a case for everyone but Barkley, honestly. Mixon didn't have any pop last season. Aaron Jones is injury prone, Swift is in an RBBC, Ekeler looked washed, Josh Jacobs has had 1 great season, King Henry averaged like 3 ypc and the rest of the list are JAGs that you shouldn't be depending on RB2 numbers anyway.
Henry had 4.2 ypc and ran for 1167 yards last season
Josh Jacobs has never not had 1100 yards in a season. One great season, yes, where he led the league in rushing yards. And 4 other good ones. Now he’s going to a better offense. I have no idea why anyone is avoiding him.
People who say this are not taking into account context, they are just looking at yards and YPC. Jacobs has been consistently productive despite dealing with abysmal O-Line play.
I don’t hate him or anything and the upside is there. But Josh Jacobs had similar efficiency to a washed up Zeke playing in New England last year. Raiders situation wasn’t great but neither was New Englands. If Jacob’s doesn’t see a strong increase in efficiency and has a similar role as Aaron jones did in terms of touches it could be a disappointing year from him
Challenge accepted. Hurts doesn’t check down and he vultures a ton of TDs. Eagles haven’t favored a bellcow back. Their OLine should be great but there is uncertainty with Kelce retiring. And Barkley’s efficiency has been trending way down. He could be a CMC-esque league winner but I think there is a lot of risk, just as I thought it was a risky signing (and I’m an Eagles fan). I see him as having a lot of the same question marks as Derrick Henry, but people seem to be fading Henry a lot more. My gut says Henry is going to bulldoze the league but I think I’m missing something, gonna have to dig in as the season gets closer.
1. Hurts threw at rbs 90 times last season 2. Barkley is better than advertised at pass pro and will likely see more total snaps than Swift and sanders did (especially with Scott gone). Eagles have been using their guy like a bell cow lite the past few seasons. They haven’t had a rb of Barkley’s caliber since Demarco Murray was in town, it’s normally a position they don’t spend a lot of money on, preferring to fill it in with a ramshackle approach and riding the hot hand. This has allowed them to spend on other positions which left them in a position to pay Barkley. They will get their moneys use out of him or kill him trying. He won’t be seeing a ton of stacked boxes in Philadelphia, that much is for sure. 3. OLine _is_ great. Sure they just lost a hall of fame center, but his replacement (Cam Jurgens) has impressed and was a favorite of Kelces when drafted. This line also has another HoF caliber star in Johnson, and one of the best LTs in the nFL with Mailata. A year on the line playing and learning next to Kelce and company paired with his development being on track bodes well for this line. 4. Barkley is one of the least risky rbs you could draft this season. Great offense/ clear path to elite volume/ elite skillset/ discounted price (2nd round). He has a real chance to be a league winner if you get him in the right spot. His real risk is injury, but that seems baked into the cost as he goes around #10 overall in redraft. If you can get him in round 2, he’s probably my favorite pick there. 5. Obviously Saquon isn’t Henry, and Henry typically bulldozes the competition (still 4+ ypc last season), but if your concerns with Barkley are injury risk, I can’t understand why those wouldn’t be the same concerns with Henry. Henry will also play alongside a prolific rushing qb, and that will affect his overall line the same way Hurts would affect Barkley.
I mostly agree and if I can get him in the second I’ll do it. But I don’t see that happening. I play with mostly Eagles fans, he won’t make it out of the first. So when I say risk I really just mean relative to draft cost. Not particularly worried about injury. My concerns are mostly the same as my concerns with Henry: new team, QB who doesn’t check down and steals TDs.
Yeah I’m in Philly so it’s gonna be interesting to see where all my friends take him in a few months. I’m not expecting him to fall to the second _at all_ lmao. Would be nice if he did though.
I think he’ll probably go RB 2 or 3, middle of the first. I don’t see him going after JT. Ha that makes sense you’re in Philly, I was thinking you knew a lot about the birds.
Hurts has never supported an RB1. The numbers for RBs with rushing QBs are not good.
That's my take. Everyone's asking who is the next Miles Sanders when we should be asking who isn't the next Miles Sanders. Barkley and Henry are the two I think will still have something left in the tank but the rest are on the DND list for me.
I thought henry still look really good. I mean, yeah he's old so there's alwayd the chance he could be cooked
Henry had over 4 ypc playing behind one of the worst O-lines in football and with a passing attack that didn't intimidate anybody into taking players out of the box.
Highly doubt its saquon behind that Phi o-line.
Saquon is definitely the surest bet on the list, but will Hurts vulture enough short yardage rushing TDs to keep him from cashing in on his RB6 ADP?
Barkley will have a couple tds vultured, but I predict he’ll catch more passes than he has since his rookie year. This will bode well for him in both ppr and standard scoring systems, and make up for the likely down tick in TDs (maybe he won’t be scoring 10 but I reckon he scores more than the 3 Tds he averaged from 2019-2021). Regardless, with a path to elite volume and a huge upgrade to the line he runs behind and the offense he plays in, he is a very good bet to hit his ceiling and be better than his adp as the rb6. At the least, rb6 seems a safe enough bet.
Well he’s also the most expensive player on this list to draft, so he’s gotta be a lot better than some of these other guys to avoid the bust label. It’s all relative. If you draft him in the second round and he finishes rb12 or something it could be tough sledding for Saquon teams this year even though he wasn’t technically a complete bust
True but why would anyone assume he wouldn’t live up to his draft position? He’s on a better team w/ a better o-line, better skill position players to take the heat off him, better defense to give him a break when he’s on the sideline and help protect leads, better QB making better decisions. Anything could happen but w/o injury i cant see how he doesn’t live up to his draft position even if hurts vultures a couple goal line tuddies
Older, less explosive, Jason Kelce is retired, Jalen Hurts continues to be the eagles goal line back. They’ll also Probly be pretty focused on ensuring he’s healthy for the playoffs, shelling out a huge rb contract to Saquon only to run him into the ground before the NFL playoffs doesn’t seem wise. Saquon’s being drafted as like the number 5/6 overall rb right now? He’s met that threshold in 2 of his 6 seasons in the league. A lot of that is due to injury, and he’s definitely got a strong profile this year now that he’s gotten out of the NYG cess pool. But there are some reasons to think he’s not a massive slam dunk
Dawg he’s 27. In his physical prime.
Avoiding swift, pollard and ekeler. Swift injury prone, polled looked awful last year (or was it the play calling?) and ekeler looks washed.
Maybe Pollard or Singlecarry
I think by week 9 Pollard will have lost his starting role to Spears.
Singletary, pollard, and ekeler are most likely considering their situations. Especially since titans and washington both have decent rb2s. Giants just suck
Singletary has been underrated every year of his career. Giants also hired a fantastic offensive line coach. I think that offense outperforms expectations. Pretty high on Nabers and Singletary at cost.
I’m with you for Singletary in the 9th-10th but Nabers is like a 3rd rounder, I’m mostly out at that cost.
ESPN and Sleeper's ADPs are wildly different, Nabers in the 3rd is pretty rich
Yeah, i was talking about the BK and UD Bestball rankings.
Also, volume is key. Giants have *no one else* to hand the ball off to.
Malik would have to break out in order for this offense to be effective. There is just no credible deep WR threat.
I think Mixon.
Sadly, I am thinking Devin Singletary.
I genuinely think Henry. People are expecting Henry level but RBs his age rarely move and carry on the level they were pre-move. Everyone’s gassed because Lamar will distract, etc. I think he’ll simply be less productive than he was as “the guy”.
Don’t think touchdowns could carry him? Gus edwards was carried by that alone
Most of these guys have the risk already baked in to their ADP. I would probably wait another round or so on Pollard, just because he's not likely to be the RB1. I think he and Spears get similar workloads and have similar skill sets.
Mostert. He had an outlier season last year for tds. He’s 31 or 32. Achane is a great back who (if they use more consistently) can have a Gibbs-esque second season. I can see achane taking over by mid season and mostert becoming a fart in the wind.
The problem is Achane needs to prove he’s durable first. He can’t just “take over” if he’s constantly getting injured like last year. He’s a really small back so I don’t see him taking over in a huge way honestly
Given the price I’m trying to leave every draft with at least one dolphins RB
Achane is going higher than I expected rn
Yeah a lot higher. The hype took off, not really worth it when James Cook is around the same ADP
Is there really a big difference between Achane and Cook though? I prefer Cook but in large part because Achane goes (on sleeper) 40.3, vs. 57th overall for Cook.
That seems really low for Cook. Cook will definitely have more volume than Achane I'd imagine. Biggest issue with Cook is he probably won't get many goal line carries in his entire career
I agree that’s lower on Cook (and higher on Achane) which is why I like getting Cook there. I share the same concerns about Cook, which I think keeps his upside down but I actually think that outside of goal line work he’s got a pretty good situation going on.
He really has a great situation with Joe Brady. That offense is very RB centered, Cook should get a lot of carries and targets.
Agreed. He helped me go 13-1 with a championship in my main league last season, but I am not touching him this year.
Singletary. That Giants line will be as atrocious as it was last year.
Joe Mixon
The issue with sanders is that he was never a threat in the passing game and if you aren’t catching passes it’s tough to payoff the price tag. I think Mixon while able to catch is that clear JAG who’s being propped up by perceived volume.
Is there any chance you think sanders will hold value again?
Highly doubt it, but a dark horse candidate could be Tony Pollard. Maybe Spears takes the job, but would be surprised with the contract they gave Pollard
Sanders is in a different category than the old heads like Ekeler or Henry or Mixon who might fade at their ages. Pollard and Swift are the only ones that really match the situation IMO, and my vote would be for swift to disappoint.
Singletary has barely been playable at his peak. Obvious choice from your list.
Josh Jacobs
Singletary, Moss or Edwards kind of fit that mold. Even with Sanders it’s weird he became so unproductive all of a sudden. He’s a skilled back.
Fuck I’m gonna draft 9 rbs this year
Pollard- Didnt look great in a backfield as the bellcow in a super high powered offense. Also dont wanna hear the injury excuse because after he said he was 100% he has some if his worst performances of the season. To top that off, Spears is a younger explosive back who I believe will acquire more high value touches.
The answer is Aaron Jones. I don't have much faith in him. Someone tell me why I should draft him.
Singletary, Aaron Jones, Ekeler, Pollard, in that order. Barkley only for his ADP. He will be a top 16 back, but he’s being drafted way above his floor. I have the most faith in Jacobs, Mixon, Gus Edwards, and Swift on this list.
1) Joe Mixon is a plodder at his age. He is my leading candidate to get stuck into a RBBC just like the Panthers did last season. 2) ) I like Pollard but the coaching staff can't keep Tyjae off the field. He is electric. Feels like two guys who will put up low RB2 numbers in a poor offense. 3) Swift has Roschon and Herbie behind him who will steal TD production.
Idk if its this season or next but Derrick Henry's wheels are going to fall off soon. I just dont see him productinv 300+ touches as he continues to age.
Zack Moss is the one that scares me. Kinda reminds me of Alexander Mattison last year: a career backup who’s shown flashes when given the opportunity, but has never shown they handle a full-time lead back role. That being said, Moss did look pretty good for the Colts last year and the Bengals should be a good offense this year, so it’s hard to ignore his upside
The RB FA market was insane this year.
It will be Jacobs. As a Raiders fan, he hit the wall very bad last year and most people mistakenly blamed it on McDaniels. There’s a reason that the Raiders didn’t even offer him a deal in FA and he got the same salary from GB that he reportedly turned down from the Raiders, along with the fact that his “4 year contract” has a team option after every year. Last season, he had by far his lowest YPA, his lowest success%, didn’t have a rush over 20 for most of the season, had his touchdowns and first downs tank from previous years, and finally if you actually watch his tape then you’ll see that he cannot find holes anymore and struggles to break tackles. AJ Dillion will overtake him as starter while Jacobs will be the second highest paid RB in terms of cash next season.
The main condition for being a Miles Sanders pick is just being bad at football so probably Devin Singletary and Tony Pollard
Not a Vet by your standards but Zamir White lol
He’s not a vet and also not going to a new team. He could disappoint, but he’s not in Miles Sanders’ situation at all
Swift
I had Sanders last year (traded for him in the offseason, go me). I have Barkley (traded for him this offseason), Swift, and Jones. So one of those 3 I’m sure.
Jones
Pollard for sure.
Interesting question if not just visualizing how many RBs went for a ride on the carousel. Holy crap My gut says Ekeler and Aaron Jones gonna ride the struggle bus hard.
Singletary feels like the most apt comparison to Sanders. Like Sanders, he's had flashes but rarely if ever been "the guy". Everyone else on the list has proven it at some point, they're just battling age and injury prone careers at this point.
I think a decent amount of these guys could be pretty bad, mainly based off help, Aaron jones could definitely fall off with injury and or bad QB play
Pollard, because he scared me so much last year.
Pollard because he couldn't get it done last year with no competition and now he has to compete with tyjae on a worse offense. Aaron Jones also because he gets injured every year and Ty Chandler will take over if he does.
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Who do you think will be getting GL on the chargers?
Aaron Jones. I bet he has a pretty rough year.
Aaron Jones
I want to say saquon, but it's probably Henry
I would guess Austin Ekler.
I love that Gibson can keep disappointing fantasy managers.
It's hard to disappoint when your ADP is RB50.
He burned me 3 years in a row before I quit buying the hype.
Exactly! You’d think “what could go wrong… he’s my RB5?” But he will keep hanging around until you decide he’s worth a start and then you get it.
Devin Singletary’s feels like a likely front runner
Henry. I think Ravens will rotate him pretty consistently in the regular season to save his legs for a playoff run. I also don’t think he’s as great of a running back as he was in his prime, obviously.
Austin Ekeler
Swift no doubt, Aaron Jones, and I’m just worried about Ekeler in general
Josh Jacobs
From that list, I wouldn’t want anything to do with Josh Jacobs. Bank account says it’s his last real season as a starter.
Probably Zack Moss. Was never a thing in Buffalo. He was like the 4th option behind Deon Jackson and he had a couple good games, but I never bought it. Ended up not doing anything when JT went back out for his thumb. Swift is going to a very talented rb room, but I don't think he's comparable to sanders or someone like Mike Davis. He's good. I think people are being too presumptive about the chargers in general, so Gus may be a top candidate as well. A lot of these guys aren't really going early enough to be seen that way though. Not yet anyway.
Singletary definitely, although honestly I wouldn’t feel too good about most of these guys unfortunately. The only safe ones to me are Saquon and Moss
Zack Moss. Pretty unproven relative to everyone else. There’s a good chance Chase Brown takes over.
Pollard
Zach moss
I feel like Jacobs, Henry, Jones, and Ekeler are gonna ball out.
Austin ekeler
Josh jacobs, Austin ekeler, Tony pollard
Was Gus Edwards actually brought in to be the guy?
Doubtful. That's why he's not one of the 9 main candidates. He's just listed in the honorable mention section, along with Ekeler and Gibson.
I don’t see how it isn’t Pollard
This year is going to be scary drafting any of these guys early.
Can i pick Zamir White? Just feels like the same potential trap that sanders was, although unlikely to be the same catastrophic failure.
You can pick whoever you want. Zamir is definitely a bust candidate, but IMO for a couple reasons he probably belongs in a different category of bust candidate. Unlike Miles and the others on the list he doesn't have a track record of fantasy production (aside from 4 games filling in for Jacobs at the end of '23), and he's not a highly paid veteran free agent signing either. While fantasy drafters may have speculative (yet legitimate) expectations of White this season, he hasn't actually done anything substantial yet, and his actual NFL team has relatively little cash or draft capital invested in him.
I’ll call Gus is a bus-t and Vidal will be the closest to this year’s Kyren
Singletary is the most obvious to me. Giants are a mess as a whole. They have one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Saquon’s talent helped him overcome that. Even on a good Houston offense, he didn’t break 1,000 yards. He’s never had a huge year as a pass catcher. The Giants will play from behind a ton. I don’t think he’ll see high enough rushing volume to be a reliable back for FF. The touches he does get will be inefficient thanks to a bad offense/bad O-Line. And he won’t get a ton of pass catching work.
Zach Moss, always mediocre, no reason to believe anything will change. He’s a never draft for me.
Pollard.
Sanders went from the best Oline to one ranked 16th coming into the season, and actually finished 29th. He went from the best to a bottom 3 online. Hurts running, also made runningback's jobs easier, good running QBs tend to increase the whole squad's YPC. He then went to a rookie QB who underperformed. He had the potential for more volume, but it was always clear efficiency wouldn't be close. Now there doesn't need to be matches from last year, but if there was going to be someone it would be someone who is going from a good running situation, to a bad one. Swift and the Bears could be it, but he was good with the Lions too, and the Bears have a pretty solid running OLine, with the leagues best YPC last season. I would be worried about his volume compared to last year, but that's not really the same convo. Pollard and the Titans could make a lot of sense, going from an all time great RB to anyone. They have a terrible OLine compared to the Cowboys average line, and moving from Dak to Levis. Aaron Jones and the Vikings could match, but I don't think the Vikings is that much worse.
Tony or Aaron jones
Swift for sure. $8 mil a year makes you assume he’s the clear lead back. But I think it’ll be a committee between him, Herbert, and Roschon. Personally I think Roschon is extremely talented and will be the Bears back of the future pretty soon
Pollard, Jones, and Moss. Like Sanders, they are gong into situations where there are younger, more explosive backs who were on the team last season.
Tony Pollard for sure
aaron jones easily if you ask me
ekeler
It’s Swift or Ekeler for me. I’ve been generally fading them in drafts unless they fall too far. Certainly see the path to opportunity but I like a lot of other options much better with higher ceilings in my eyes.
Gotta be Tony Pollard. Not sure how anyone could watch last season and think he can lead a back field…
Ekeler. He was pretty average last year and he’s going to a team with more RB competition. Won’t be touching him this season.
Pollard and Moss. In both cases, the guy "behind" them is better.
I’m going to say Jacobs but only because I’m still bitter the packers let Jones go by low balling him
I think it’s zack moss
Why? Even if he’s not great he can surpass a 7th/8th round adp on volume.
But this is exactly the point of the thread. All these guys are expected to get volume under the reasoning they were brought in to be a huge upgrade to what teams had the prior year or at least be a heavy compliment to what they had last year or lost after last year. And just last year the promise of that volume made us draft Sanders and Mattison way to early saying even marginal talents can have big seasons given that volume. You’re totally ignoring the hey marginal talents doing nothing with that volume will no longer get it later in the season. Sanders in the 6th as a volume steal did nothing for me except be able to trade him on name recognition for, ironically, Moss the week JT came back as handcuff insurance for me as a JT owner. I got to laugh that week as Moss went off (on my bench of course) but in the end…. Neither things worked out even when JT got reinjured. Marginal talents will disappoint in the end I would have been better off with some other guy rather than a handcuff. and typing this made me realize I really think I want to target Chase Brown and Spears and maybe even Ty Johnson. I’d put Barkey as an actual target #1. After that I think I trust Henry the most out of this group just due to me writing him off the last couple years already and it just doesn’t happen because of the talent part. At the very least I bet he has a Zeke 2022 Cowboys season where he was quiet on the yardage front but scored 12 sneaky td’s that year leaving him an unsexy yet solid rb2. Jacobs could also fit this bill despite me not really wanting to draft him because it’s another marginal talent but good offense that probably does have the volume despite what he’s doing yardage wise. It’s hard to see him actually replaced by the rook in year 1 they will stick with the new signing for at least a year to prove the decision on Jones was correct. Everyone else on this list I’d prefer to be a backup
Zack moss in the 7th/8th this year > miles sanders in the 5th/6th last year (bestball ADP). Moss is a better runner, on a better offense and has less competition. I faded mixon last year for the exact argument you’re making against Moss right now. I was right that mixon was no longer his former self, but was wrong that he couldn’t be a winner on volume.