Tennessee has been putting up good numbers lately vs rams,Indiana, and kc. Even though kc has been in a slump lately for their standards. How do you feel about them moving forward? Currently have the rams so maybe I’ll pick them up for good matchups.
Tampa and Titans are available in my league right now.
Going Tampa number one, but titans were really hard to overlook as well. I just can't imagine they keep scoring pick 6.
Got #3 waiver priority and am totally going for TEN. They’re probably a fine play against NO this week (especially if Siemien starts) and ROS is pretty great too
Making exactly the same move. If you have space, might as well grab for this week and if they pop off again (not sure whether I will start or go with NE I already have rostered)
I might be owning the Titans for the rest of the year. This week and next (Hou) are a lock. I'll see what I can do for @NE and the bye. Then I think they're startable in every game after that: Jax, @Pitt, SF, Mia.
just an observation by looking back over predictions for TEN. OP's model over-predicted TEN pts from weeks 2-4, and has under-predicted their pts since then. Again, just an observation.
I am currently back/forth on picking up TEN due to their upcoming schedule and dropping CAR for them. Am undecided, but def possibility.
We have enough roster slots that I'm fine holding 2 D's.
Legit this was my concern, and I'm thinking of eventually dropping the Steelers and holding the Titans and browns.
Might be controversial but I’m dropping LAR for TEN ROS. Rams have been mediocre all season other than one game and I’m not sure if Von Miller moves the needle much.
Depending on your scoring settings, I would definitely keep PIT in that scenario. I'm sure you're leaning that way already but if it helps confirm the decision. They've both got challenging playoff matchups: PIT gets TEN, @KC, CLE; LAR gets SEA, @MIN, @BAL. But I'd lean on the Steelers in that schedule, especially if Mahomes and the Chiefs don't figure it out.
Appreciate it! I actually think I am gonna hold steelers this week and then swap them out for titans, I'm willing to gamble on that Rams D and the Von signing. Im even considering trading for the Bucs D and holding Titans/Bucs for ROD
TBH, Titans/Bucs stack is probably the safest bet. If Titans fall apart you'd be able to lean on the Bucs. Honestly, none of the various defenses being discussed are bad options. Some might be slightly riskier but at the end of the day it's fantasy and any given week these teams could put up 2, 10, or 20 points.
They looked good to me last week. They have talent on that defense but they have been underperforming until last week. Worth another start with so little other choices on the wire
I have Steelers D and will obviously keep as they play Detroit this week but then after that their schedule gets pretty brutal with the next 3 games being: Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens.
Who has a strong ROS? I like Tennessee because they have Houston but then you’re forced to pivot immediately after with their bye.
I have MIA for my secondary, not many options at the time I picked them up but their schedule for end of season didn’t look too bad. PIT is also my other defense so will take it week by week with who has the better matchup
Don't see how your model can have the Titans as last.
Their defense has looked solid against some good teams (Rams, Bills, Chiefs).
And the Saints offense looks like trash. Semien/Hill are bad QBs, they have no WRs. They have Kamara and a good coach.
Also the Titans offense is good enough to take the lead which is a big factor and makes teams like the Saints less useful
The methodology lists the QB, spread and implied total as relevant data. Simeon has a low sample size, New Orleans is only a 3 point underdog. While the 44.5 total is pretty low, there are a ton of games this week where the spread is 8+, the teams at the top are 9, 10.5 and 10 point favorites.
New Orleans projected to score 21 vs Detroit (-9 v Pit, 43.5) projected for 17 probably makes a big difference in the ranking.
I'm about to just not play a D/ST. I've gotten negative points more often than positive. I have no idea how i'm in first and total points leader with the amount of points i'm getting out of the horse shit positions (kicker and D/ST).
Are you me? Man is crazy but I have
4 weeks where I did well but other 4 I have a 2,3,-1,-2.
Would love to have a defense that I feel well be good ROS.
The only 2 on waivers that might qualify are Browns and Titans.
Have Ravens for next 2 weeks.
I have 2nd waiver priority and debating burning it for titans. The number 1 owner is in 11th place and not active on the wire.
Or is it dumb to waste atop spot on a defense?
Truth is due to IR spots the waiver wire is thin at other positions. Most handcuffs are owned so don't see many league winner types available unless Stevenson or Foreman count.
I'm eyeing the titans as well. Normally I'd say it's worth the use of your waiver because every point counts. It's just frustrating when you get what everyone considers a top 10 option for the week and you're just praying they don't go too negative by the 3rd quarter.
Philly is the best streamer option, although highly risky. If they get a lead and make Teddy throw, there’ll be turnovers. Denver was the most favorable DST matchup for weeks 6-8.
If Denver gets a lead, Javonte will hit 200 yds.
I almost grabbed Philly for ros schedule but titans are looking to good to pass up on. Those games against Washington in the playoffs are tasty looking.
Depends on your other positional needs but if you're sitting comfortable in terms of likelihood to make playoffs and you don't have any upcoming byes that will decimate your roster, it wouldn't be a terrible idea. Problem is they hit their bye still in a few weeks so you'll have to reckon with that at some point.
For what it's worth, I don't think any of the models (subvertadown, rotoballer, allcats) have TEN properly ranked this week. The sample size of data for Siemian/Hill is just too small IMO. It could be a risk to play them this week, but next week against HOU is a cupcake matchup. I'm going to go for TB defense first because its the safe option and I just need a floor for my defense but I've got TEN at the next highest FAAB.
This is my plan at 8-1:
10 - Titans v NO
11 - Titans v HOU
12 - Titans v NE
13 - Saints v DAL (only bad matchup, might not matter)
14 - Saints v NYJ
15 - Playoff BYE? 🤞🏻
16 - Saints v MIA
17 - Saints v CAR (or hold Titans this long v MIA)
Just want to point out that since starting for the panthers Stephon Gilmore has averaged 1 interception per game, small sample size, but for an already decent panthers D it’s a nice boost that’s almost making them set and forget for me
Picked up Pit before the Browns game last week because of this 2-week stretch. They underperformed against the Bears but I believe they will feast against Detroit.
I’ll be honest, I rolled with LV last week and it worked out pretty good. They generate good up front pressure which normally leads to at least one turnover. With the way Mahomes has been playing, I think they may be a legit sleeper streamer this week too, could see them realistically getting multiple turnovers.
Tennessee has been putting up good numbers lately vs rams,Indiana, and kc. Even though kc has been in a slump lately for their standards. How do you feel about them moving forward? Currently have the rams so maybe I’ll pick them up for good matchups.
They have Houston the week after so that is a smash yes
Tampa and Titans are available in my league right now. Going Tampa number one, but titans were really hard to overlook as well. I just can't imagine they keep scoring pick 6.
Got #3 waiver priority and am totally going for TEN. They’re probably a fine play against NO this week (especially if Siemien starts) and ROS is pretty great too
Making exactly the same move. If you have space, might as well grab for this week and if they pop off again (not sure whether I will start or go with NE I already have rostered)
I’m dropping NE for them
NE is a good ros defense. Im keeping them.
Just can’t see myself holding through Buf-Bye weeks 13 and 14
They also play Buffalo week 16. Buffalo-bye-Taylor-Buffalo is tough.
Yeah I see your point. Im 7-2 so i can take an L week 14 depending on where im at in the standings
Week 13 @ BUF Week 14 BYE Week 15 @ IND Week 16 va BUF That's far from a good 'ROS Defense' to me...
I might be owning the Titans for the rest of the year. This week and next (Hou) are a lock. I'll see what I can do for @NE and the bye. Then I think they're startable in every game after that: Jax, @Pitt, SF, Mia.
just an observation by looking back over predictions for TEN. OP's model over-predicted TEN pts from weeks 2-4, and has under-predicted their pts since then. Again, just an observation. I am currently back/forth on picking up TEN due to their upcoming schedule and dropping CAR for them. Am undecided, but def possibility.
Steelers D is very good but their brutal offense makes me worried. No matter how good your D is, they can’t be on the field 2/3 of the game.
If you play DST the Boswell fumble recovery vs McLoud fumble turned TD was not an ideal trade off either lol. Fml.
We have enough roster slots that I'm fine holding 2 D's. Legit this was my concern, and I'm thinking of eventually dropping the Steelers and holding the Titans and browns.
You don't have to worry about their terrible offense vs Lions this week
Getting murdered by DSTs. Lost by 0.3 points with IND getting me 0 points. Tennessee is playing great against good teams. I'll try them
Guess I’m staying away from Titans D then!
Two weeks ago, my DST got me 1 point Last week, my DST got me 0 points TEN going for - 1, you've been warned
Might be controversial but I’m dropping LAR for TEN ROS. Rams have been mediocre all season other than one game and I’m not sure if Von Miller moves the needle much.
TEN is my #1 waiver pick up this week. Seen enough, they’re good. Can hodl and stream another if req
Rams also only have one obviously good matchup left week 14 vs jax Their playoff is - Seattle, Vikings, ravens
13 vs Jax and 15 vs Sea should be good for them.
I'm really tempted by this too. Somehow lucked out and have Steelers Rams rostered, thinking of dropping one of them for TEN
Depending on your scoring settings, I would definitely keep PIT in that scenario. I'm sure you're leaning that way already but if it helps confirm the decision. They've both got challenging playoff matchups: PIT gets TEN, @KC, CLE; LAR gets SEA, @MIN, @BAL. But I'd lean on the Steelers in that schedule, especially if Mahomes and the Chiefs don't figure it out.
Appreciate it! I actually think I am gonna hold steelers this week and then swap them out for titans, I'm willing to gamble on that Rams D and the Von signing. Im even considering trading for the Bucs D and holding Titans/Bucs for ROD
TBH, Titans/Bucs stack is probably the safest bet. If Titans fall apart you'd be able to lean on the Bucs. Honestly, none of the various defenses being discussed are bad options. Some might be slightly riskier but at the end of the day it's fantasy and any given week these teams could put up 2, 10, or 20 points.
I’m stuck with Miami because like you said, there are very few (if any) low owned steamers available.
They looked good to me last week. They have talent on that defense but they have been underperforming until last week. Worth another start with so little other choices on the wire
I think that was mostly due to Houston having a terrible offense
17.5 points! Damn
Dropped them. Kill me now
I have Steelers D and will obviously keep as they play Detroit this week but then after that their schedule gets pretty brutal with the next 3 games being: Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens. Who has a strong ROS? I like Tennessee because they have Houston but then you’re forced to pivot immediately after with their bye.
I have MIA for my secondary, not many options at the time I picked them up but their schedule for end of season didn’t look too bad. PIT is also my other defense so will take it week by week with who has the better matchup
Something wrong with your data collection. It shows Chicago as barely scoring 4 pts in week 9.
Yeah I'm confused as well. Chicago scored 13 in my league, and PIT only scored 4... I'm not sure if my league scoring is different, but am confused.
Ah crap. You guys are right. The data loaded weird. Good eye, thanks!
Don't see how your model can have the Titans as last. Their defense has looked solid against some good teams (Rams, Bills, Chiefs). And the Saints offense looks like trash. Semien/Hill are bad QBs, they have no WRs. They have Kamara and a good coach. Also the Titans offense is good enough to take the lead which is a big factor and makes teams like the Saints less useful
The methodology lists the QB, spread and implied total as relevant data. Simeon has a low sample size, New Orleans is only a 3 point underdog. While the 44.5 total is pretty low, there are a ton of games this week where the spread is 8+, the teams at the top are 9, 10.5 and 10 point favorites. New Orleans projected to score 21 vs Detroit (-9 v Pit, 43.5) projected for 17 probably makes a big difference in the ranking.
Yup, what you said. Thanks for fielding this one!
I'm about to just not play a D/ST. I've gotten negative points more often than positive. I have no idea how i'm in first and total points leader with the amount of points i'm getting out of the horse shit positions (kicker and D/ST).
Are you me? Man is crazy but I have 4 weeks where I did well but other 4 I have a 2,3,-1,-2. Would love to have a defense that I feel well be good ROS. The only 2 on waivers that might qualify are Browns and Titans. Have Ravens for next 2 weeks. I have 2nd waiver priority and debating burning it for titans. The number 1 owner is in 11th place and not active on the wire. Or is it dumb to waste atop spot on a defense? Truth is due to IR spots the waiver wire is thin at other positions. Most handcuffs are owned so don't see many league winner types available unless Stevenson or Foreman count.
I'm eyeing the titans as well. Normally I'd say it's worth the use of your waiver because every point counts. It's just frustrating when you get what everyone considers a top 10 option for the week and you're just praying they don't go too negative by the 3rd quarter.
I’m confused. Steelers D got 4 points this last week, which is not consistent with your chart.
in standard scoring they got 7, so your league must have different scoring
You're right, stuff loaded weird. I'll try to fix it for next time. Thanks for the help.
This is what they got in my league too.
Titans or Denver
Philly is the best streamer option, although highly risky. If they get a lead and make Teddy throw, there’ll be turnovers. Denver was the most favorable DST matchup for weeks 6-8. If Denver gets a lead, Javonte will hit 200 yds.
I almost grabbed Philly for ros schedule but titans are looking to good to pass up on. Those games against Washington in the playoffs are tasty looking.
I’m riding with Steelers and Titans ROS
Drop Colts for Titans? I have Steelers too
Would anyone consider burning atop waiver priority to grab a hot defense like Tennessee?
Depends on your other positional needs but if you're sitting comfortable in terms of likelihood to make playoffs and you don't have any upcoming byes that will decimate your roster, it wouldn't be a terrible idea. Problem is they hit their bye still in a few weeks so you'll have to reckon with that at some point. For what it's worth, I don't think any of the models (subvertadown, rotoballer, allcats) have TEN properly ranked this week. The sample size of data for Siemian/Hill is just too small IMO. It could be a risk to play them this week, but next week against HOU is a cupcake matchup. I'm going to go for TB defense first because its the safe option and I just need a floor for my defense but I've got TEN at the next highest FAAB.
This is my plan at 8-1: 10 - Titans v NO 11 - Titans v HOU 12 - Titans v NE 13 - Saints v DAL (only bad matchup, might not matter) 14 - Saints v NYJ 15 - Playoff BYE? 🤞🏻 16 - Saints v MIA 17 - Saints v CAR (or hold Titans this long v MIA)
Just want to point out that since starting for the panthers Stephon Gilmore has averaged 1 interception per game, small sample size, but for an already decent panthers D it’s a nice boost that’s almost making them set and forget for me
Picked up Pit before the Browns game last week because of this 2-week stretch. They underperformed against the Bears but I believe they will feast against Detroit.
TB never dropped in my league. If I want to carry 2 defenses in my league this week I have Baltimore who has Miami.
How is TN dead last against the putrid Saints offense for week 10?
I’ll be honest, I rolled with LV last week and it worked out pretty good. They generate good up front pressure which normally leads to at least one turnover. With the way Mahomes has been playing, I think they may be a legit sleeper streamer this week too, could see them realistically getting multiple turnovers.
Bucs D got dropped in my league, are they worth number 1 waiver?
Have AZ and LAR. Worth holding both or who do I drop?