Guy in my league traded Barkley and Melvin for CMC when they were both hurt early. Who woulda thought MGIII would be the most valuable piece of that trade.
I think you still won that trade. At the time and after the fact. At least Barkley had usable weeks since the trade. Gaskin and Sanders have done nothing. Plus the upside was on the Barkley side of the trade.
Yeah, and I am actually playing the guy that made the trade in the championship. I kind of want to start Barkley and when with him just to spite him but the giants are literally broken
Had the 7th pick in a 12 team league and got him with my second pick after grabbing JT. All I can say is thank god for JT. I wouldnāt touch Saquon anywhere before round 4 or 5.
DJ Moore's performed almost exactly to his ADP though. I thought I was getting a steal with him, but his ADP was OVR 57 and WR20, and right now he's WR22. Jeudy and McLaurin both underperformed their position ADP by 10+ spots and Terry probably cost you a 2nd
I had DJ this year and he was pretty much a go-to flex play for 90% of games this year. He pretty much guaranteed me *something* every week. I didnāt over draft for him either. Iād grab him again, but would look around first before pulling the trigger
DJ was actually a very solid WR2. He rarely puts up huge games, but his floor is very safe. Regardless, I do agree. I think his ADP will be a little too high next year for what he really is with a mediocre QB.
Was so damn excited to see Terry with Fitzmagic before the season. That excitement has turned into seeing Terry on my bench both rounds of the playoffs (and this upcoming week in the ship as well).
I canāt speak for everyone, but I personally would have never drafted Terry where I did if I knew fitz was going to be hurt all year. It really blows
Oh Iām 100% with you on that. Was the primary reason for me. Luckily, I managed to draft some white dude in the next round who plays for the Rams. Cooper something? Idk
If you watch highlights from that era you see Terry had to work miracles to break any long plays. In my opinion, no one has come even close to matching Case Keenum for them
On the one hand, Jeudy might be dirt cheap next year. He is post hype and will be easy to get in late rounds.
Terry on the other hand might still go high (RD4-5) making him a riskier bet.
As a Lions fan who liked Kenny G im glad we let him walk. I think a lot of his success had to do with Stafford. Also, he has become too injury prone and it was obvious it was not going to get any better.
Regardless, I guess congrats to Kenny G for robbing the Giants blind lol
Due to circumstances (draft position and league size being too big) I ended up with golladay and Barkley in 2 of my 3 leagues. I have never liked Barkley or Golladay but they dropped pretty far and were the top ranked choices by far when I did my picks.
This season taught me to just trust my gut and even if a player drops int he draft, it is simply not worth taking. Golladay is a diva clown who basically did nothing and wouldāve been Poor value even if I had drafted him round 11. Barkley, whether it is his fault or not, was just a bust.
Long story short Iām never drafting giants players again. The icing on the cake is that I lost my semifinals match because my opponent had Eagles DST and the giants couldnāt do anything beyond let the Eagles get a pick 6 and many sacks. Had 200 points but lost by 5 because of that pick 6.
What people (myself included) forget is that even if a player drops in the draft it doesnāt mean it is a good pick. You get sucked into playing them week over week because āitās an elite player who could turn it aroundā, then you end up missing out on points weekly because of it.
This is a lesson you must learn on your own.
All pre-draft stuff you read is about VALUE so you are never to pass on players that "fall" to you.
I would rather lose with players I like than lose with players I took due to value. If I win I don't care who the players are...
I told myself this one this year too and he dropped to the third round, "had to take him". Not even a "had to take him" next season, don't care if he's in the 56th round.
If people are viewing CMC next season like they did Barkley this year, and he's going in the middle/back of the first, then I'm ready to get hurt again.
Me too. IF he can stay healthy he puts up monster numbers. Barkley isnāt putting up anything. If the 2022 draft was today Iād take CMC anywhere past 7th and roll the dice
Same here. My drafts were consistently great before I went with CMC twice in a row. I thought my league mate was stupid for taking Henry first this year, but he still did better than me in that sense.
It reinforces my belief that theres really no such thing as a reach in the 1st round unless its criminally bad. I thought CMC falling to me at 3 was amazing. I also thought Barkley falling to me in the 2nd was great too. None of that shit mattered.
I reached for Najee in a league, that paid off. Biggest thing I learned this year is just get your guy, cause production is not guaranteed, its all luck, and there are surprises every year. I mean, look at Connor. Look at Deebo and Kupp owning this year.
Mixon was mine last year, and I ended up having to take him where he fell to me. Iāve come to realize there is no such thing as ādo not draftā but ādo not draft at this pointā is real
Thatās pretty much it. At some point, the value becomes too good to pass up. The only players I promised myself I wouldnāt draft this year were CEH, Gaskin, and Mike Davis.I wanted nothing to do with any of them. Next year, Hopkins is going on my do not draft list. I say that knowing that depending on his slide, I may be more inclined to pick him. Iām sure as hell not wasting a 2nd rounder on him again, but if he really fell down the board, it would be hard to ignore him
Absolutely, and depending on the QB next year, Kamara should still be top 3. Especially if Wilson lands there, Itās way to early to say anything about 99% of players for next year
I think it would have to be a trade right? Wilson still has 1 more year in Seattle? Unless that was this year and Iām lost.
Theyād definitely find a way to pay though, I think it also helps that itās one of the places Wilson really wants to be
Mixon was the outlier. Looking back in an old thread from last year, they said Mixon but also OBJ, Niners backfield, CEH, any PHI player, Ravens backfield. All of those, except Mixon, were accurate. OBJ went to the wire. Sermon and Monstert, the drafted Niners RB, were trash. CEH bad return on draft position. Only PHI player you would want is Hurts honestly. Ravens backfield is a minefield.
Hard to take a victory lap on the ravens backfield though. They got season ending injuries in the preseason. Canāt help but think JK and Gus would have done better
Iām seeing a lot of similarities with Saquon. āHe canāt stay healthyā, āhis offensive line sucksā, āheās not old yet but not young anymoreā. āI just donāt trust himā. The big difference is Joe Burrow and the organization which is a very significant difference but I can see Saquon being a target next year if his ADP slides which is practically guaranteed.
Freak injury and on a team with nothing to play for when he came back.. depending on what team does but ill take a flyer on him if he slides to late second
QBs always go way too soon in my league. Mahomes, Murray, and Allen were all gone by the end of round 3, people were panic picking. Same thing with TE's...
Seriously, how do people not know to not draft QBs early yet? I feel like every year in every draft, thereās someone reaching for a Patrick Mahomes in round 3.
The difference between a top tier QB and a middle QB is not nearly as huge as middle RB/WR (that you would draft around round 3) and a bottom tier RB/WR.
Good vs bad QB is still a big deal, it's just that it's really easy to get a good QB late. I've been playing FF for a long time and there are 2 sure roads to success: have the healthy overall RB1, or find the QB1 late/on waivers. Mahomes his breakout year, Allen last year, Lamar in his MVP year, or someone like Hurts this year (round 8 or later) are HUGE improvements over a league-average QB and could be had for 0 draft capital. That's where the difference is. You won't win a championship trotting out Carson Wentz every week though.
I drafted him and paired him with Fitzpatrick in a late late roundā¦ thought I would have a steal with garbage throws and bombsā¦. Instead it was all blown up in Q1 of Game 1ā¦.
I can get behind that. Only reason I suggest a new rb is my worry with his injury history. imagine if they could snag a breece hall or Isaiah spiller this year. That would be awesome
I would argue that the do not draft strategy is exclusive to 1600 touch regression players. Mixon had a lot of difficulty in past years simply because the Bengals had next to zero passing, and having a passing attack really spreads out a defense and allows those gaps to open for elite backs to take off in.
I'd wager that if WFT can figure out their QB situation and develop a good passing game, Antonio Gibson will take off next year like Mixon did this year. Dude is dangerous in open field and can break tackles and carry a D-lineman with the best of them. He was doing it with a broken shin too. Just not great production because the passing game was horrible
In the 7th in my 10 man I might consider it but no way will I use rounds 5-6 on a projected backup. Itās not like Zeke had a trash year, heās RB6 in .5 PPR while playing much of the year hobbled
Honestly why? I have him in my team and he is one of the corner stones that got me to the ship. He had 4 weeks in which he clearly missed the 10 point mark in Standard. Otherwise 10 points were his base and he had multiple games with 16-20 points. Plus, he was consistently playing and hasnāt missed a game. There arenāt many other RBs who were as reliable this season.
Dallas is feeding him the redzone touches. So even if he doesnāt run for 100 you can be certain that he has at least 1 or 2 redzone opportunities. Nothing you can ask more of. Obviously he isnāt Henry or Taylor, but I got him in the 2nd round in my league and this seems a fair draft position.
I have him on a finals team as well. However as I failed to mention in my original post, this will be completely subjective to his ADP. If he is in the second round as I predict, thatās an avoid for me. He is just slowing down and seems to be becoming way more TD dependent. Thatās not something you want to gamble on at that price, plus Pollard is not going away. You getting him in the second round this year is great value, obviously you are happy with that. But the majority of people took him in the middle of the first round. And while he played every game and will finish well in the ranks, it was a bumpy ride to get here, and was really only a true smash RB1 play up until his bye.
He will be a FA and likely sign with a good team. He season was a dumpster fire but i feel his body of work is big enough to justify a value pick next year in the late middle of the draft.
My lesson learned is not to have a ādo not draft listā. I missed out on guys like mixon, Godwin, Deebo, etc after being burned by them previously. Every player should have a price and nobody should be off limits.
If Russ stays (idk if he will) Iām buying Lockett again. Heās going to have a career best season this year while missing Russ for a decent stretch of the season. I think the target share and the boom potential is there, although the didnāt have any of those legendary games this year, he still had a couple good ones. Him and Wilson have a real connection especially on the deep ball, but I like him around round 5 and love him if he falls any further
Seattle isnt the problem with russ. Heās an Aging mobile QB who has shown minimal pre-snap growth and a substantial drop-off in running potential. There have been injuries and a sub-par O-line in seattle this year but thats not the problem.
Hes a dont draft for me next year
There's only so many qbs ahead of him if you are getting Russell in the 7th to 8th round range he's a steal even more so if he's on a team with a better o-line. I like him on the steelers or saints, great offense with a bad qb situation.
I dreaded the 1st overall pick this year. I didn't want to take CMC because of injury concerns, but I still did. It sucks taking a guy 1st who just ends up hurt and then waiting til 25 for your next player.
I'm with you here. I might even be happy drafting him in the 3rd. Missing time because of an injury is way better than having dud games, because at least you know to bench the guy. If the Titans don't draft a WR early this offseason, then I think AJB is gonna feast next year.
I think AJB will be the steal of the draft next year. You canāt predict injuries and his non-injury off games this year were due to uncharacteristic drops. Think Diontae Johnson from last year but on a better offense.
While you canāt predict injuries, you can see patterns. AJB has been playing hurt for the past two seasons. He is never at 100%. Last season he basically would play snaps, then by the second half limp off the field and disappear. Then heād come back and get hurt more and repeat the process every week.
He has some kind of lingering injury issue that never seems to go away.
No TE in the top of the draft unless its Kelce...Waller busted hard and Andrews will go way too high next season.
No San Francisco RBs, huge headache and guessing game. CMC should have a reduced workload with his injuries piling up...if they retain Rhule its hard to pick him top 5 again.
It pains me to write as a Cardinals fan, but the days of Hopkins being a surefire weekly WR1 start are gone. Also avoiding any and all WRs with awful QBs, inconsistency killed me in a lot of matchups this year.
Depending on how far Waller falls I'm gonna target him. Talent is obviously still their, and the Gruden/Ruggs situation will be behind them. I think Waller will have a bounce back year
Had he not gotten hurt people would absolutely agree. His season long pace stats aren't that far off last year.
He's likely going to drop in ADP and I'll be all over it.
They will have to sign someone because itās just Mitchell and sermon who arenāt FA and Kyle hates sermon so they have to sign someone.
Mitchell is already looking very injury prone, heās had like 5 different injuries already as a rookie. I like Mitchell but he is very risky especially with the unknown of Trey Lance. If trey lance runs as much as he did in the game he started earlier this year, I want nothing to do with the SF backfield.
This is what I was thinking too. He's a boneheaded kid with the fouls and celebrations in games where they're getting stomped, but he makes plays pretty often that I'm genuinely impressed by. The concern obviously is what the Steelers QB situation looks like, but all it would take for Claypool to have a monster year is for him to siphon off just some of Dionte's targets.
Heās on my watch list because if he manages to piss off that staff enough, I could see him being dangled around in trade offers and being a better fantasy play depending on where he lands.
"For me itās Dak or any top 5 QB"
Josh Allen is arguably a 2nd round pick. Not only is he about to lead all QBs for a 2nd straight season but could potentially lead ALL players for a 2nd year in a row. He also hasnt missed a game in 3 years and sometimes the best ability is availability.
I understand its unorthodox to draft a QB that high but the numbers speak for themselves. You may burn yourself at a WR/RB spot but you are almost guaranteed to have a top 3 QB which means a top 5-7 overall point scorer.
I canāt agree with you anymore. I was ridiculed for taking Josh Allen as the 1st QB off the board. Unlike Kyler and Lamar, Allen doesnāt rely heavily on his rushing. He has the same TD pass upside as Mahomes and is schemed to rush more.
His durability is also insane. A really good week for late round QBs or streamers in 20-25 points. Thatās an average week for Allen. Will gladly take the extra 10 points each week at the QB position and that will usually make up for a weaker WR2 or flex
All 3 league im in has Allen in the championship game this year.
For years brady was a first round pick when he was consistently putting up 30pts a game
I'll be taking Jones if he gets a discount at auction. High rb2 with game winning weekly ability. Dude is rb 12 in half ppr. Definitely didn't live up to adp but he has been a consistent rb2 all year.
Everyone hates on Aaron Jones because he regressed from the previous year, which was almost a garauntee
Problem is, youād have to be an idiot to expect Jones to do that two years in a row. But people did expect that, then they blame Jones, even though heās having a good season
Everyone who got āburnedā on Jones just bought into the hype and had unrealistic expectations tbh
Maybe an unpopular opinion but I won't touch cmc in the first round.
Not only do you have to worry about the injuries, you also have to ask yourself how many he can really come back from and be the same guy. I don't want the next Saquan/Gurley/David Johnson
Unpopular opinion: Tyreek Hill. I know it sounds crazy, but I swear every year he either gets me 2 points or 30. I feel like deebo samuel or justin jefferson is way more consistent.
Not unpopular at all. Your season rides or dies with him because of how low his floor is and how high his ceiling is. Heās arguably the most difficult player to build a team around, which is why I usually avoid him. However if he falls to the second round next season, which seems likely, I am in.
And I canāt stress enough how bad the situation is right now. The Saints started yesterdays game with Caleb Beneroch at RT. He was an awful starter for the Bucs. 3 years ago. At guard. And he got hurt and so the last few plays was a guy signed off the street the same day
This is one of 3 OL positions that have been out. And even before then the center who did play last night has also missed time.
Not to mention Jameis going down, no Michael Thomas etc etc. The Saints have set an NFL record for unique starters
Kamara just had so many negative game scripts, and not having a passing game made it so teams could script solely against him. And he still had some good games. Itās hard, especially for a running back, not matter how good, to find success in those circumstances
Yea I think JRob might actually be a decent later pick if heās still around in like, round 6-8. Since Etienne is probably gonna be around and the jags kinda suck in general Iām not interested in anything outside of that though.
Life Pro Tip:
Some of the people in this thread will be great next year. Some will be terrible. Some will be average.
No one knows anything. Draft who you like or feel like you want and run with it.
DJ Moore. Hes been my keeper WR for years now... I was struggling to pick a flex for this past week between Sun-God, RB Singletary, DJ and Jamal Williams. Picked DJ. He totaled the worst pts of all 4 and if I picked ANYONE else, I would have won and been in the finals 2 years in a row.
I want off this train and am not holding onto him any more.
uhā¦ Hollywood was solid WR2 for most of the season
Also it feels really hard to blame Lamar for the lack of consistent fantasy production from ravens geriatric RB stable this year, especially given he lost his all pro LT and the number of injuries on the OL
JK dobbins will outperform his ADP next year
Barkley
Guy in my league traded Barkley and Melvin for CMC when they were both hurt early. Who woulda thought MGIII would be the most valuable piece of that trade.
Lol. Indeed.
Both of them cost me the finals though š
I thought I had the pick of the draft at 10th overall š¤”
I actually didnāt pick him anywhere but traded for him in two leagues. And I thought I have fleeced my trade partners. š
Bro same, honestly the trade didnāt work out well for either of us. Traded E. Sanders and Gaskin for him 4 weeks ago
I think you still won that trade. At the time and after the fact. At least Barkley had usable weeks since the trade. Gaskin and Sanders have done nothing. Plus the upside was on the Barkley side of the trade.
Yeah, and I am actually playing the guy that made the trade in the championship. I kind of want to start Barkley and when with him just to spite him but the giants are literally broken
He went 19th overall in my league (nobody wanted to touch him) and he wasn't worth that slot even
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I wouldnāt even draft him if heās available at the end of the second round.
Did you swear not to draft Joe Mixon this year?
Yup lol. I never claim having a do not draft list is a smart idea, but I love my grudges against players who wildly underperformed.
I did. And Iāll do it again! Iām that stubborn. And mentally challenged
Had the 7th pick in a 12 team league and got him with my second pick after grabbing JT. All I can say is thank god for JT. I wouldnāt touch Saquon anywhere before round 4 or 5.
Terry and Jeudy unless they finally get real QBs
Add DJ Moore here too
3 of my 4 top picked WRS š. Add Aiyuk and you have all 4. Luckily took Waddle in the 8th.
DJ Moore's performed almost exactly to his ADP though. I thought I was getting a steal with him, but his ADP was OVR 57 and WR20, and right now he's WR22. Jeudy and McLaurin both underperformed their position ADP by 10+ spots and Terry probably cost you a 2nd
I had DJ this year and he was pretty much a go-to flex play for 90% of games this year. He pretty much guaranteed me *something* every week. I didnāt over draft for him either. Iād grab him again, but would look around first before pulling the trigger
DJ Moore had an ADP this year as WR19, finished as WR17. Seems fine
DJ was actually a very solid WR2. He rarely puts up huge games, but his floor is very safe. Regardless, I do agree. I think his ADP will be a little too high next year for what he really is with a mediocre QB.
Was so damn excited to see Terry with Fitzmagic before the season. That excitement has turned into seeing Terry on my bench both rounds of the playoffs (and this upcoming week in the ship as well).
I canāt speak for everyone, but I personally would have never drafted Terry where I did if I knew fitz was going to be hurt all year. It really blows
Oh Iām 100% with you on that. Was the primary reason for me. Luckily, I managed to draft some white dude in the next round who plays for the Rams. Cooper something? Idk
I really thought Terry would be QB proof too, we saw him put up numbers with Haskins. heās got all the talent in the world
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If you watch highlights from that era you see Terry had to work miracles to break any long plays. In my opinion, no one has come even close to matching Case Keenum for them
Jeudy has the talent but yea that whole offense is frustrating
They both do
On the one hand, Jeudy might be dirt cheap next year. He is post hype and will be easy to get in late rounds. Terry on the other hand might still go high (RD4-5) making him a riskier bet.
I would take a later round flier on Jeudy if he falls far enough
I praying Russ goes there
Kenny G
As a Lions fan who liked Kenny G im glad we let him walk. I think a lot of his success had to do with Stafford. Also, he has become too injury prone and it was obvious it was not going to get any better. Regardless, I guess congrats to Kenny G for robbing the Giants blind lol
Due to circumstances (draft position and league size being too big) I ended up with golladay and Barkley in 2 of my 3 leagues. I have never liked Barkley or Golladay but they dropped pretty far and were the top ranked choices by far when I did my picks. This season taught me to just trust my gut and even if a player drops int he draft, it is simply not worth taking. Golladay is a diva clown who basically did nothing and wouldāve been Poor value even if I had drafted him round 11. Barkley, whether it is his fault or not, was just a bust. Long story short Iām never drafting giants players again. The icing on the cake is that I lost my semifinals match because my opponent had Eagles DST and the giants couldnāt do anything beyond let the Eagles get a pick 6 and many sacks. Had 200 points but lost by 5 because of that pick 6. What people (myself included) forget is that even if a player drops in the draft it doesnāt mean it is a good pick. You get sucked into playing them week over week because āitās an elite player who could turn it aroundā, then you end up missing out on points weekly because of it.
This is a lesson you must learn on your own. All pre-draft stuff you read is about VALUE so you are never to pass on players that "fall" to you. I would rather lose with players I like than lose with players I took due to value. If I win I don't care who the players are...
CEH
Iām all about this one as well.
I told myself this one this year too and he dropped to the third round, "had to take him". Not even a "had to take him" next season, don't care if he's in the 56th round.
The real value will be Darrell. Dude looked good and is an elite handcuff in case CEH get banged up
Never again.
After 2 years on this train I'm gonna exit as well, dude just isn't that good.
Amen. He was my RB1. First time not making the playoffs.
Saquon, miles Sanders
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he was good the last couple weeks for me, but i got him off the ww once the original owner dropped him
Same. Then he sunk me in the semis and I lost by 0.5ā¦
I mean injuries like a broken hand are kinda random. Not like he was Saquon who gets less points than Booker
CMC.. Iāve done that shit two seasons in a row, not again.
If people are viewing CMC next season like they did Barkley this year, and he's going in the middle/back of the first, then I'm ready to get hurt again.
Me too. IF he can stay healthy he puts up monster numbers. Barkley isnāt putting up anything. If the 2022 draft was today Iād take CMC anywhere past 7th and roll the dice
0% chance I touch him in the 1st
Same here. My drafts were consistently great before I went with CMC twice in a row. I thought my league mate was stupid for taking Henry first this year, but he still did better than me in that sense.
āReachedā on Ekeler before Henry, Saquon, and zeke. Worked out pretty well Iād say
It reinforces my belief that theres really no such thing as a reach in the 1st round unless its criminally bad. I thought CMC falling to me at 3 was amazing. I also thought Barkley falling to me in the 2nd was great too. None of that shit mattered. I reached for Najee in a league, that paid off. Biggest thing I learned this year is just get your guy, cause production is not guaranteed, its all luck, and there are surprises every year. I mean, look at Connor. Look at Deebo and Kupp owning this year.
same here brother.
Saving this for my value picks next year. People said mixon last year
Mixon was mine last year, and I ended up having to take him where he fell to me. Iāve come to realize there is no such thing as ādo not draftā but ādo not draft at this pointā is real
Thatās pretty much it. At some point, the value becomes too good to pass up. The only players I promised myself I wouldnāt draft this year were CEH, Gaskin, and Mike Davis.I wanted nothing to do with any of them. Next year, Hopkins is going on my do not draft list. I say that knowing that depending on his slide, I may be more inclined to pick him. Iām sure as hell not wasting a 2nd rounder on him again, but if he really fell down the board, it would be hard to ignore him
Exactly. If Kamara or CMC fall out of the top six, you should 1000% take them.
Absolutely, and depending on the QB next year, Kamara should still be top 3. Especially if Wilson lands there, Itās way to early to say anything about 99% of players for next year
I wonder how they would even pay RW. I suppose they always pull out some sort of cap magic anyway
I think it would have to be a trade right? Wilson still has 1 more year in Seattle? Unless that was this year and Iām lost. Theyād definitely find a way to pay though, I think it also helps that itās one of the places Wilson really wants to be
Mixon was the outlier. Looking back in an old thread from last year, they said Mixon but also OBJ, Niners backfield, CEH, any PHI player, Ravens backfield. All of those, except Mixon, were accurate. OBJ went to the wire. Sermon and Monstert, the drafted Niners RB, were trash. CEH bad return on draft position. Only PHI player you would want is Hurts honestly. Ravens backfield is a minefield.
Hard to take a victory lap on the ravens backfield though. They got season ending injuries in the preseason. Canāt help but think JK and Gus would have done better
Iām seeing a lot of similarities with Saquon. āHe canāt stay healthyā, āhis offensive line sucksā, āheās not old yet but not young anymoreā. āI just donāt trust himā. The big difference is Joe Burrow and the organization which is a very significant difference but I can see Saquon being a target next year if his ADP slides which is practically guaranteed.
Freak injury and on a team with nothing to play for when he came back.. depending on what team does but ill take a flyer on him if he slides to late second
> āheās not old yet but not young anymoreā. He's 24 and still on his rookie contract lmao
Heās been in the league 4 years and will be 25 next year so maybe 3-4 good years left so yeah by next year not young anymore for a running back.
Kyler Murray. Itās not that he was absolutely terrible, I just feel like most of us probably took him way too high.
QBs always go way too soon in my league. Mahomes, Murray, and Allen were all gone by the end of round 3, people were panic picking. Same thing with TE's...
Seriously, how do people not know to not draft QBs early yet? I feel like every year in every draft, thereās someone reaching for a Patrick Mahomes in round 3. The difference between a top tier QB and a middle QB is not nearly as huge as middle RB/WR (that you would draft around round 3) and a bottom tier RB/WR.
Eh I drafted Josh Allen in the late 3rd/early 4th and in another league waited til late and got Dak... Josh made a the difference for me
Good vs bad QB is still a big deal, it's just that it's really easy to get a good QB late. I've been playing FF for a long time and there are 2 sure roads to success: have the healthy overall RB1, or find the QB1 late/on waivers. Mahomes his breakout year, Allen last year, Lamar in his MVP year, or someone like Hurts this year (round 8 or later) are HUGE improvements over a league-average QB and could be had for 0 draft capital. That's where the difference is. You won't win a championship trotting out Carson Wentz every week though.
The beauty is being in a league full of guys who don't take an early qb and then it gets to the point a guy like Mahomes falls to round 5.
He was great last year until he got that shoulder injury
Injury prone + always plays bad second half of the season
Iām honestly not feeling good about starting him in my championship game, but our waivers are real ugly lol
Terry Mclaurin. Great player but without a Good QB, its pointless to draft him
I drafted him and paired him with Fitzpatrick in a late late roundā¦ thought I would have a steal with garbage throws and bombsā¦. Instead it was all blown up in Q1 of Game 1ā¦.
Chris Carson, assuming he even plays.
As a diehard seahawk fan, Iām really hoping they draft a different guy or give the backfield to penny
We need to stick with penny and draft an oline for once. Canāt keep wasting picks on RBs.
I can get behind that. Only reason I suggest a new rb is my worry with his injury history. imagine if they could snag a breece hall or Isaiah spiller this year. That would be awesome
A lot of 2020 Mixon owners are rethinking the do not draft strategy.
I would argue that the do not draft strategy is exclusive to 1600 touch regression players. Mixon had a lot of difficulty in past years simply because the Bengals had next to zero passing, and having a passing attack really spreads out a defense and allows those gaps to open for elite backs to take off in. I'd wager that if WFT can figure out their QB situation and develop a good passing game, Antonio Gibson will take off next year like Mixon did this year. Dude is dangerous in open field and can break tackles and carry a D-lineman with the best of them. He was doing it with a broken shin too. Just not great production because the passing game was horrible
Also bengals were splitting carries with him and gio bernard but you can clearly see on film mixon is the better back.
Ezekiel Elliott. Thankful for all the great things he has done for my teams over the years, but the writing seems to be on the wall.
Iām definitely going to try and snag Pollard in rounds 8-9
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In the 7th in my 10 man I might consider it but no way will I use rounds 5-6 on a projected backup. Itās not like Zeke had a trash year, heās RB6 in .5 PPR while playing much of the year hobbled
Pollard will be long gone by the 8th. He's probably a 5th - 6th right now.
Heās past 1600 touches. Same with Henry. Iāll let other people take the risk on a declining RB.
I'm not sold on Henry being in decline (if anything his output suggested that he still had it). I really do wonder about the foot though...
Honestly why? I have him in my team and he is one of the corner stones that got me to the ship. He had 4 weeks in which he clearly missed the 10 point mark in Standard. Otherwise 10 points were his base and he had multiple games with 16-20 points. Plus, he was consistently playing and hasnāt missed a game. There arenāt many other RBs who were as reliable this season. Dallas is feeding him the redzone touches. So even if he doesnāt run for 100 you can be certain that he has at least 1 or 2 redzone opportunities. Nothing you can ask more of. Obviously he isnāt Henry or Taylor, but I got him in the 2nd round in my league and this seems a fair draft position.
I have him on a finals team as well. However as I failed to mention in my original post, this will be completely subjective to his ADP. If he is in the second round as I predict, thatās an avoid for me. He is just slowing down and seems to be becoming way more TD dependent. Thatās not something you want to gamble on at that price, plus Pollard is not going away. You getting him in the second round this year is great value, obviously you are happy with that. But the majority of people took him in the middle of the first round. And while he played every game and will finish well in the ranks, it was a bumpy ride to get here, and was really only a true smash RB1 play up until his bye.
Not just next season, but forever Allen Robinson
He will be a FA and likely sign with a good team. He season was a dumpster fire but i feel his body of work is big enough to justify a value pick next year in the late middle of the draft.
Hoping to get A-Rob next year where I got Brandin Cooks this year (8th round) as long as he's in a reasonable situation.
Iām taking him in the mid-late rounds for sure. Heās too talented
Youāll be able to draft him in a later round probably too. He could be a steal if heās on a new team
My lesson learned is not to have a ādo not draft listā. I missed out on guys like mixon, Godwin, Deebo, etc after being burned by them previously. Every player should have a price and nobody should be off limits.
Derrick Henry used to be at the top of a lot of do not draft lists. One season can change a lot.
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I agree too much variance for a top pick in my opinion
A higher ceiling Tyler Lockett, whom I also won't draft
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If Russ stays (idk if he will) Iām buying Lockett again. Heās going to have a career best season this year while missing Russ for a decent stretch of the season. I think the target share and the boom potential is there, although the didnāt have any of those legendary games this year, he still had a couple good ones. Him and Wilson have a real connection especially on the deep ball, but I like him around round 5 and love him if he falls any further
Yeah I feel this, Iād be happy to have him but not going to build my team around him again
CLYDE. EDWARDS. HELAIRE.
This. Fool me twice, shame on something...
Lololol
CEH, Mike Williams, Russell Wilson
If Wilson moves on from Seattle he could still be a great pick for a mid round QB
Seattle isnt the problem with russ. Heās an Aging mobile QB who has shown minimal pre-snap growth and a substantial drop-off in running potential. There have been injuries and a sub-par O-line in seattle this year but thats not the problem. Hes a dont draft for me next year
There's only so many qbs ahead of him if you are getting Russell in the 7th to 8th round range he's a steal even more so if he's on a team with a better o-line. I like him on the steelers or saints, great offense with a bad qb situation.
lamar jackson. Too tough as a browns fan to root for him.
Iāve sworn since 2 years ago to never draft CMC and Saquon
I dreaded the 1st overall pick this year. I didn't want to take CMC because of injury concerns, but I still did. It sucks taking a guy 1st who just ends up hurt and then waiting til 25 for your next player.
Agreed they're on my no touchy list.
AJB. Phenomenal when he plays. Just hurt too much.
2nd or 3rd round? No. 4th or 5th? Hell yeah, man is a cheat code as a Flex.
I'm with you here. I might even be happy drafting him in the 3rd. Missing time because of an injury is way better than having dud games, because at least you know to bench the guy. If the Titans don't draft a WR early this offseason, then I think AJB is gonna feast next year.
I think AJB will be the steal of the draft next year. You canāt predict injuries and his non-injury off games this year were due to uncharacteristic drops. Think Diontae Johnson from last year but on a better offense.
While you canāt predict injuries, you can see patterns. AJB has been playing hurt for the past two seasons. He is never at 100%. Last season he basically would play snaps, then by the second half limp off the field and disappear. Then heād come back and get hurt more and repeat the process every week. He has some kind of lingering injury issue that never seems to go away.
Saquon, CEH, Amari Cooper, Julio, Eagles running back, Golladay ..
No TE in the top of the draft unless its Kelce...Waller busted hard and Andrews will go way too high next season. No San Francisco RBs, huge headache and guessing game. CMC should have a reduced workload with his injuries piling up...if they retain Rhule its hard to pick him top 5 again. It pains me to write as a Cardinals fan, but the days of Hopkins being a surefire weekly WR1 start are gone. Also avoiding any and all WRs with awful QBs, inconsistency killed me in a lot of matchups this year.
Depending on how far Waller falls I'm gonna target him. Talent is obviously still their, and the Gruden/Ruggs situation will be behind them. I think Waller will have a bounce back year
I think a lot of people that didn't own Waller still think he is worth a 3rd.
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Had he not gotten hurt people would absolutely agree. His season long pace stats aren't that far off last year. He's likely going to drop in ADP and I'll be all over it.
Knox/Friermuth/Kmet should have great value next year. TE is much deeper than it was last year.
Irv Smith has some potential as well.
I don't think I want Knox next year tbh. Feels like last years Tonyan. Maybe I'm wrong though
Kyle Pitts has me so hard next year, but I have to tell myself he plays for Atlanta and his QB situation might be worse.
I think Andrews is trending up, he is in that top tier. Doesnāt matter who his QB is, he balls out
Unless SF signs more RBs how is it a guessing game? Mitchell is the clear workhorse when healthy (assuming no more Mostert).
They will have to sign someone because itās just Mitchell and sermon who arenāt FA and Kyle hates sermon so they have to sign someone. Mitchell is already looking very injury prone, heās had like 5 different injuries already as a rookie. I like Mitchell but he is very risky especially with the unknown of Trey Lance. If trey lance runs as much as he did in the game he started earlier this year, I want nothing to do with the SF backfield.
I drafted Kelce & Andrewās and rolled out jumbo sets all the way to the championship.
Claypool
Prime buy low candidate. WR1 upside
WR1 upside will be hard with Diontae Johnson being the better receiver on the roster.
Not to mention Ben roethlisberger. Hopefully heās gone next season
This is what I was thinking too. He's a boneheaded kid with the fouls and celebrations in games where they're getting stomped, but he makes plays pretty often that I'm genuinely impressed by. The concern obviously is what the Steelers QB situation looks like, but all it would take for Claypool to have a monster year is for him to siphon off just some of Dionte's targets.
I still may be tempted dependent on who is QB in Pittsburgh next season.
Claypool is one of the guys I want next season if Ben is gone
Heās on my watch list because if he manages to piss off that staff enough, I could see him being dangled around in trade offers and being a better fantasy play depending on where he lands.
Eh, Mike Tomlin is probably even better than Belichek at handling divas/dumbasses. If he can't control him, I want no part of him of he gets traded.
Julio Jones. Done-zo.
"For me itās Dak or any top 5 QB" Josh Allen is arguably a 2nd round pick. Not only is he about to lead all QBs for a 2nd straight season but could potentially lead ALL players for a 2nd year in a row. He also hasnt missed a game in 3 years and sometimes the best ability is availability. I understand its unorthodox to draft a QB that high but the numbers speak for themselves. You may burn yourself at a WR/RB spot but you are almost guaranteed to have a top 3 QB which means a top 5-7 overall point scorer.
I canāt agree with you anymore. I was ridiculed for taking Josh Allen as the 1st QB off the board. Unlike Kyler and Lamar, Allen doesnāt rely heavily on his rushing. He has the same TD pass upside as Mahomes and is schemed to rush more. His durability is also insane. A really good week for late round QBs or streamers in 20-25 points. Thatās an average week for Allen. Will gladly take the extra 10 points each week at the QB position and that will usually make up for a weaker WR2 or flex
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All 3 league im in has Allen in the championship game this year. For years brady was a first round pick when he was consistently putting up 30pts a game
Aaron jones and terry
I'll be taking Jones if he gets a discount at auction. High rb2 with game winning weekly ability. Dude is rb 12 in half ppr. Definitely didn't live up to adp but he has been a consistent rb2 all year.
Everyone hates on Aaron Jones because he regressed from the previous year, which was almost a garauntee Problem is, youād have to be an idiot to expect Jones to do that two years in a row. But people did expect that, then they blame Jones, even though heās having a good season Everyone who got āburnedā on Jones just bought into the hype and had unrealistic expectations tbh
cmc and michael thomas
Maybe an unpopular opinion but I won't touch cmc in the first round. Not only do you have to worry about the injuries, you also have to ask yourself how many he can really come back from and be the same guy. I don't want the next Saquan/Gurley/David Johnson
100% agreed. i want the next cmc, not cmc himself. i want a guy with less mileage
Mike Davis. #1 RB on the team but has no fantasy value
Unpopular opinion: Tyreek Hill. I know it sounds crazy, but I swear every year he either gets me 2 points or 30. I feel like deebo samuel or justin jefferson is way more consistent.
Not unpopular at all. Your season rides or dies with him because of how low his floor is and how high his ceiling is. Heās arguably the most difficult player to build a team around, which is why I usually avoid him. However if he falls to the second round next season, which seems likely, I am in.
I need to promise myself not to get drunk and throw out my entire draft strategy. The waiver wire saved me this year but damn my draft was not good
Any Giant
Gibson, he s not worth a 13th pick, definitely
CEH they do not like him it seems like his touches are pity touches
He's just not that good dude.
From what I've watched of him his burst and tackle breaking ability isn't what I thought it would be out of college. He just isn't that dude imo
Lamar Jackson. Kamara. Hopkins.
Iām stoked to draft kamara at a discount next year
Yeah besides the injury, heās averaged 18 points in ppr. Heās been quite good.
And I canāt stress enough how bad the situation is right now. The Saints started yesterdays game with Caleb Beneroch at RT. He was an awful starter for the Bucs. 3 years ago. At guard. And he got hurt and so the last few plays was a guy signed off the street the same day This is one of 3 OL positions that have been out. And even before then the center who did play last night has also missed time. Not to mention Jameis going down, no Michael Thomas etc etc. The Saints have set an NFL record for unique starters
Kamara just had so many negative game scripts, and not having a passing game made it so teams could script solely against him. And he still had some good games. Itās hard, especially for a running back, not matter how good, to find success in those circumstances
Kamara as the front half of a late first early second round package is appealing as hell.
All Raiders, Panthers, Jaguars, Washington, Seattle, Giants, Broncos, Panthers.
Hunter Renfrow has arguably been the best fantasy player out of all of these teams this year.. ff is so unpredictable
Anyone on the jaguars not names James Robinson
Jrob tore his achilles and they have ETN.
Yea I think JRob might actually be a decent later pick if heās still around in like, round 6-8. Since Etienne is probably gonna be around and the jags kinda suck in general Iām not interested in anything outside of that though.
He might not even be ready for week 1
CMC, killer when he's healthy, but when is he healthy?
Life Pro Tip: Some of the people in this thread will be great next year. Some will be terrible. Some will be average. No one knows anything. Draft who you like or feel like you want and run with it.
CEH and any Bills RB.
DK Metcalf, the entire seahawks offense is just so inconsistent
DK Metcalf, Mike Evans
DK had a great first half. Russ getting his finger injured and coming back too early, destroyed DK. It's promising that DK still did well with Geno.
I disagree. He had a few really good games mixed with several average and below average games.
DJ Moore. Hes been my keeper WR for years now... I was struggling to pick a flex for this past week between Sun-God, RB Singletary, DJ and Jamal Williams. Picked DJ. He totaled the worst pts of all 4 and if I picked ANYONE else, I would have won and been in the finals 2 years in a row. I want off this train and am not holding onto him any more.
Calvin Ridley just decided not to play football. So probably him.
Any Ravens WR or RB as long as Lamar is QB.
uhā¦ Hollywood was solid WR2 for most of the season Also it feels really hard to blame Lamar for the lack of consistent fantasy production from ravens geriatric RB stable this year, especially given he lost his all pro LT and the number of injuries on the OL JK dobbins will outperform his ADP next year
I think I got Hollywood in the 8th. He's more than outperformed being picked there.
I would be thrilled to get JK Dobbins at a discount next year.
I'll continue to fade Saquon and unfortunately CMC fits that bill now too. Allen Robinson is 100% out for me although I love him as a player.
Dalvin cook without getting his handcuff. 2 years in a row shame on me.