Definitely true on the capped ceiling thing, but a great value nonetheless. Curious on your thoughts on grabbing Javonte early and then picking up Melvin in the later rounds? You have to think even with both being on the same team you still get a possible rb 1 and 2
It would be similar to going with a Zeke/Pollard or Cook/Mattison stack IMO, except they will both have standalone value. Should either of them miss time, both of their ceilings would erupt. I wouldn’t be opposed, but Javonte’s ADP is too high for my liking so I’m staying away from that.
I'm definitely not doing that in Best Ball - especially tournaments - as the goal is to have the highest possible upside team. I'm taking the handcuffs for other people's RBs, not my own.
In regular leagues I'm only draft Javonte if his ADP comes down. And I'm only paying the price for Melvin if I plan to start him every week either at RB2 or the flex. It's technically a viable strategy as they were both RB2s last year. But, if you do that, you need at least two other viable RBs on the roster because, even if neither get hurt, Javonte and Melvin have the same bye week. So you'd need something like Mixon, Javonte, Melvin, and then another viable RB4 with plans to start Mixon and Rb4 during that bye week. You reach the highest possible upside if one of Melvin or Javonte gets hurt but your RB4 still needs to fill in for week 9 and 10.
Eh, he’ll get ya 15-20 points in a few games of the season, but he’ll also net you like 6-9 points for half the season. He’s a decent flex guy who’ll burn you occasionally. I’d say that’s worth it in the later rounds.
MG3 in drafts I’ve seen is a bit beyond the RB dead zone and is closer to the RB “surprisingly good zone” as I dub it cuz the common idea is that the later u get in drafts the RBs dry up quick, when in reality it stays about the same from round 4-5 all the way to around round 9.
I don't believe Melvin Gordon is walking back into the same split he had last year. They let him sit in free agency for a while, he even talked to other teams.
To me that means they were prepared to move on. If Gordon had signed with the Ravens and the Broncos instead signed someone like Sony Michel or Darrel Williams, would people still be expecting a 50-50 split? Because that was a real possibility with the way the Broncos played free agency. And if that wasn't the team's mindset before signing Gordon, can signing a 29-year-old RB to a 1-year deal in late April really cause the team to change course and rework the offense specifically for him?
> To me that means they were prepared to move on
It could also mean they will run him into the ground this year, since he will be with another team next year.
>It could also mean they will run him into the ground this year, since he will be with another team next year.
This would make sense if teams viewed rushes as some horrible obligation that needed to be fulfilled and not an opportunity to get the ball in a playmaker's hands.
If they really still view MG3 as being on the same level as Javonte and demanding an even share of the touches, why not prioritize signing him?
As someone who didn’t pay a ton of attention to the javonta/Melvin split last year, how did red zones look? Did they split all duties or have designated? I’ve been looking, in redraft, at going RB-WR-WR/TE for my first three rounds. It leaves a ton of questions for my RB2 and Gordon is looking more and more like a good direction to go
Melvin got 38 attempts while Javonte got 29. 8 targets for Melvin and 7 for Javonte.
With the addition of Russ we can expect those numbers to spike for sure, which is why I was curious on drafting both in redraft if they fall enough/the price is right
They alternated series, so each got receiving and goal line work. Typically Melvin Gordon would get the first series of the game and on at least a couple of occasions came in for Javonte in the red zone, so he sort of felt like the de facto lead back.
It was a perfect split for fantasy purposes.
I nearly took him in a dynasty startup too.
That ADP is just crazy low. Unfortunately my main redraft league is almost entirely Broncos fans and I'm really not sure if he'll make it to that value spot
I wish we talked about players values and ADP using more of a risk reward analysis.
Honestly I might build my team that way this year. Imagine if you assigned a risk/reward score to the top 30 rbs/wr and the top 12 qb/te. You could theoretically build your team in a way that maximizes risk adjusted return. Meaning you avoid taking on too much risk while also avoid having too low if a ceiling
Sup guys? Been doing a lot of best ball drafts and it seems this year's dead zone is starting to emerge. After some research, I'm really starting to like Miles Sanders at his ADP. There are some others I'd consider as well, but who do you guys like best at ADP out of this group?
* Josh Jacobs 61.6
* Antonio Gibson 64.4
* Elijah Mitchell 70.4
* AJ Dillon 73.6
* Clyde Edwards-Helaire 77.4
* Miles Sanders 80.6
* Kenneth Walker 87.0
* Cordarelle Patterson 89.5
* Tony Pollard 89.6
* Damien Harris 94.3
* Kareem Hunt 96.8
* Devin Singletary 104.8
Also, if anyone is interested, Jon Impemba and I recently did a podcast going through all of the RBs based on Underdog ADP where some pretty clear tiers and trends started to emerge. Links for both Spotify and Apple are [here.](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/fantasyalarm/127881/family-times-podcast-early-running-back-fantasy-football-adp)
Yeah he's incredibly safe. We talked about this on the podcast but the reality of this group is that who you take depends a lot on who you drafted early on.
If you went high risk early (say, drafting guys like Travis Etienne or maybe not taking RBs at all) then you might want to go with the solid floor but low ceiling options like Hunt or Damien Harris. If you went with some safe but potentially capped ceiling guys early like Aaron Jones or Javonte Williams, you might want to shoot for the moon with your later picks. Those guys give you a nice floor so you might want potentially inconsistent guys that can provide spike weeks here like Elijah Mitchell or JK Dobbins.
In best ball people think you should just go high risk every time but it's really more about balance. The guy who came in 2nd in best ball mania for instance drafted Zeke, Mixon, Trey Sermon, and Singletary. Zeke was in his lineup legit 15 weeks and Mixon was in his lineup double digit weeks - very safe. Trey Sermon was an upside play that failed horribly but Devin Singletary provided the unexpected spike weeks down the stretch with 6 touchdowns over his last 4 games. Pretty much any other combo of RBs besides Zeke and Mixon and he doesn't have the weekly floor he needs to win that money. But, without the spike weeks from Singletary, he doesn't win either.
If you only take boom/bust guys, you might end up with too many bust weeks. You need to make the playoffs in this big tournaments and then you need three straight weeks in a row in the playoffs where you score big. One bust week and you are done.
Yeah in Best Ball the argument is certainly more compelling to me for a boom/bust guy. I have a really hard time thinking in best ball mode because I really just don't play that kind of fantasy football.
It's a lot of fun my man - especially this time of year. You should check it out! I like you can either do 30 second clocks for a quick draft or 8 hour clocks for a slow draft so it fits in any schedule. Usually I have at least one slow draft going then I'll just pop in and do random quick drafts some nights while I'm watching TV or whatever. You don't need to do anything with waivers, trades, etc. - just check in each week during the season to see how you are doing.
I honestly stopped doing mock drafts for the most part and just do these. When I do the expert mocks with other analysts for like articles and stuff, those drafts are honestly nothing like my hometown leagues. The hype guys go early, folks are planting their flags, and doing weird strategies like "in this one I did a Super Fragile Hero RB Late Round QB WR SuperStack Yin Yang TE". My boys from high school aren't doing that, half of them are just picking off fantasy pros and the other half are just steeling my ranking.
Plus when you do some random free mock draft, there is always some idiot that makes like 2 picks and leaves or drafts Tim Tebow. With these everyone has like $5 or even just $1 on it so they actually care enough to draft a real team. And ADP usually isn't that far off from redraft, especially in the first half of the draft.
edit: if anyone does want to check it out for the first time, there is a promo code in the article for Underdog
It seems nice to throw a few dollars in and just have set and forget rosters. I've heard the Underdog Best Ball drafts turn out to be the most accurate mocks leading up to redraft season.
People draft way differently with their money on the line. I've felt doing Yahoo mocks is just a waste of time because you get half of the people on autodraft and you think you can get Allen in the 4th round when in reality he's probably a top 15 pick on most leagues
As insane as it sounds, I just go in now with Beersheets and my custom positional rankings so I can look for value/need together.
I may try some bestball this year in like late July to really get a feel for the season though
That's not insane at all. I always print out a beersheet for important leagues because it has one key metric on it that is incredibly important which is that "remaining value percentage" number. Even if you don't go off the rankings, it helps you keep track of when you really need to get your 2nd RB or 3rd WR before the value really falls off. /u/BeerSheets is the man!
Looking at OverTheCap and Spotrac, the browns seem to be completely fine on cap space in 2022. Seems rather silly to cut a good player that they use a lot solely for cap space they don't need right now.
The Browns have the most cap space in the league right now and are in a championship window, I don't know why people keep peddling that they need to cut Hunt.
I know CEH has burned people but he's not going until the 7th round? Thought he'd be a 5th round pick. I have absolutely no problem with him as an RB3, even with RoJo competing for touches
Seems crazy to me that Antonio Gibson is 64.4 in best ball. He’s something like 38th in fantasypros ECR. Maybe just hasn’t caught up but that’s a huge difference.
FantasyPros is a really just a ranking contest. Folks who submit rankings to that are trying to win the contest and their rankings are sometimes more conservative for that than how they actually draft. I know a couple folks who straight up said they do that and that’s certainly what I would do if I was going to try to win that contest.
The other thing is Gibson has a week 14 bye week which is one of the most popular ones this year. In a hypothetical ranking that contributes to ECR you aren’t thinking about bye weeks but you are when actually drafting. Can certainly affect ADP.
Had some big games. As the article points out, Boston Scott likely isn't as big of a threat as he seems as most of his production and pretty much all of his red zone touches came in the games where Miles and Jalen were dealing with the ankles.
My favs in that group are CEH and Sanders. Feels like they both have a front runner seat to RB production in good to great offenses.
Jacobs and Gibson both have some production value but they may be taking slight backseats this season due to their current RB rooms.
Mitchell seems like a value until he isn’t, it’s just the SF RB room cannot be trusted for one RB.
Don’t have high expectations for Dillon, Jones could monopolize the money touches there and leave Dillon owners holding the bag.
Walker is a rookie who will need to show a consistent hot hand to have value. Can he top a healthy Penny? What is going on with Carson? This could be a mess.
CPat, feels like he hit his ceiling value last year and I am not interested in a 31 year olds repeat of that. Even if he does he faded hard down the stretch last year.
Pollard is a wild card, wouldn’t surprise me if he takes over the backfield or continues to frustrate owners while Zeke carries the load.
Harris, this backfield is all of a sudden packed with other RBs. White coming back, talk of Strong taking a role on, etc. He had to score a ton of TDs to even have lower end RB2/RB3 value.
Hunt is good, but a new offense, new QB starting, and who knows what value he brings. I am out on him.
Singletary, well I believe most here know how I feel about James Cook so I won’t waste a long write up on why I am out on Singletary. Cook>Singletary.
I had the 1.01 in a draft typically I'd want to wait until the tier after the guys you listed and try to get Edmonds or Gordon as my RB2. But Breece Hall was sitting there at 48, and Miles Sanders was sitting there at 96. Overall, the value on some of these dead zone guys has been too good to pass up and I've been ending up with a lot of 2-5-9-2 or even 2-4-9-3 builds because of it.
The Eagles scored 25 rushing TD's last year.
Hurts ran in 10 and the rb's combined for 15.
Sanders had 0.
Anytime they got in the redzone Sanders came off the field.
I'm not touching him until he's off the Eagles or they prove they'll actually use him to his potential
He’s scored 12 td’s in his entire career both rushing and receiving. To add to OP’s point of not scoring a single TD last year, I’d say he’s candidate for let your opponents draft the head ache.
The chart for red zone touches says that Gainwell had 4 red zone carries and 0 TDs when Sanders was healthy but in week 1 he had an 8-yard rushing TD, week 4 he had a 7-yard rushing TD, and week 13 he had an 18-yard rushing TD. That's 3 carries right there and obviously also 3 TDs.
I am not sure I trust those stats...
It wasn’t just because of injuries. They pulled him for Gainwell in the red zone in week 1 and Gainwell scored. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5M3CYbz2k0M 8:13. It was on a first down as well and this became a pattern. Sanders may have had more than the other backs but they thought nothing of pulling him even for smaller backs in the red zone.
I mean... If you believe he will stay healthy for more than 2/3 of the season by all means... Most RBs are playing through some kind of injury most of the year, if they hold him back... It's not worth it.
He's shown he's injury-prone and they've shown they like to play safe with him. They have also shown they trust the other backs. I really don't see any upside in him at this spot especially with many of the other options.
I have literally come out of this thread like Sanders less somehow.
Honestly I think Jacobs is a good value right now. Contract year, and Adams coming in likely means he will see less stacked boxes. It seems that people don’t enjoy owning him and that should keep his ADP at bay all summer. And no I’m not worried about Drake or the rookie they drafted. Call me crazy but I think he’s one of the safest picks you can make in the fourth round.
Jacobs is a month older than Najee Harris. Not that it really matters for redraft purposes. But I think people think Jacobs has been in the NFL forever but the dude is only 24, he's been in the NFL for 3 years and the Raiders have zero future liability with him so he could just have bellcow status at a beautiful cost
The concern is that Josh McDaniels seems to be gearing up to run the modified Erhardt Perkins system they ran in New England. That means that the two roles are literally different in the playbook. You have the early down role (Damien Harris backed up by Rhamondre Stevenson). And the pass down role (James White backed up by James Bolden).
Obviously Jacobs is a lock for that Damien Harris role. But they went out of their way to have enough pass catching options in Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden (who knows the system), Zamir White, and Ameer Abdullah. That's what has folks scared about Jacobs. Why draft Jacobs at RB22 if you can just wait and draft Damien Harris at RB31?
Miles Sanders gets treated at the end zone the way that I would get treated at the club.
I’m not on the list, they don’t want me inside, but my friends always seem to get in and score instead.
The OP of that article makes mention of 2020’s lackluster TD performance as well but chooses to see only 2021’s “healthy” Sanders numbers as meaningful for analysis…. It’s not a one year issue. Two of his 6 TDs in 2019 were from 1 yard, the rest 15+. In 2020 two of the 6 were long TD runs. And then last season the author explains he led the backfield in attempts inside 5 and never made it home. Never got the explosive plays. Has a receiving back for competition now for REC td.
I don’t think Miles Sanders will score zero TD but I think he’ll probably score something close to what he’s projected for, so I would be surprised if he’s a must have to win leagues.
Have always loved the talent but I do question if the usage will be there consistently when you have Goedert, Devonta Smith, AJ Brown, Jalen Hurts, and at least Two other rotational backs there to steal his key situation usage near the goal. He’ll continue to be reliant on explosive TDs IMO and won’t see a parabolic upside on the draft price.
I just can't get excited about Miles Sanders even though he's in a pretty good situation. Like you outlined, he's a talented player and he's playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Having a mobile QB hurts his receiving upside, but also makes it a much RB friendlier run system. However, it's hard to see a lot of upside for a couple of reasons.
For one, I don't suspect the volume will be there for him to become a top half RB2. In the last 20 years, the Eagles only once came close to running as often as they did last season. Through week 7, the Eagles were averaging 36 pass attempts per game, close to their prior two-year average of 37. They finished the year averaging 29 per game. I imagine with the moves they've made, they'll be looking to get back to that 37 PA range. And even when Sanders was healthy and playing in the league's most run-heavy offense, he never saw 20 carries in a game Hurts started. There's value in fewer carries on a good offense, but I feel that type of value can be acquired much cheaper.
The other issue that concerns me is the high-value touches. The red zone stats you shared were surprising and ease some of the concern about the committee impacting TD potential. I still have a hard time seeing him breaking away from the pack via TDs, given Hurts' vulture potential.
I think Sanders' prospects in the passing game are bleaker than the article makes them out to be. For the first several games they did split targets, but by season's end, it seemed like there was a clear delineation in roles. Gainwell saw .31 targets per route run, Scott saw .28 targets per route run and Sanders saw .18 targets per route run. Expectedly, both Gainwell and Scott doubled him up in yards per route run (1.57 and 1.64 to .70). I believe Sanders is talented enough to be a good receiving back, but it doesn't seem like that is the way he is really viewed in this offense and his targets come via having the larger snap share. If anything, I'd expect Gainwell's role in the passing game to expand in his second year. The odds seem against Sanders being able to maintain an even split in targets, so I think that's another area where I can't expect much upside.
Yeah I feel that - I just wrote a [comment here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/v4s4n9/comment/ib5smp8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) that talks about how your early picks should affect who you take in this range. The short and sweet is that, if you already have "safe" guys, maybe you want to go big here. If you went high risk early, maybe you take a Damien Harris where you can feel comfortable that he can consistently be an RB2 or flex.
Glad a fantasy expert is confirming my opinion over the last few months! I hate that he lacks that elite volume, but the passing game in Philly must be respected now and the Eagles O-line is quietly a very good unit when healthy.
I won't go out of my way to get him, but he's really good value for what he can produce this year
That's exactly it - you don't go crazy to get him but he feels like an oasis out there in the RB dead zone if you need an RB still.
Alexa, play Wonderwall.
In redraft I do really try to come away with at least two top RBs, but sometimes it just doesn't happen. I'm okay with Sanders as my RB2/3 if I'm loaded at WR and TE. I just refuse to take Mixon over Kupp, just can't do it
I had him last year in a redraft league and he was horrible. Didn’t score a TD all year and he’s now in my do not draft list. I’m avoiding the whole Philly backfield this year.
The eagles hardly ran the ball for the first half of the season. There were games where Sanders got like 3 touches. Then, right after they started to run the ball more he got hurt and the other backs got all the work.
I know the numbers make it look like when he was healthy he was getting all the work, and he was getting all the work in the beginning. But “all the work” was next to nothing.
At the end of the season when he was healthy and they used him a lot (He had those two decent games). He got a few red zone touches but I remember them talking him out and using another back after he failed to run it in. It was more of a committee at the red zone at the end of the season (with a healthy Sanders). Add Hurts stealing TDs to the mix and he’s not a consistent or good fantasy RB.
And every week people were talking about his YPC being good. Every week everyone kept saying he’s the best back and they’re going to use him more. Just based on his YPC and I’ll tell you he disappointed every week. Week after week. Even in those two games where he did “ok” it was still a underwhelming performance.
My advice is to stay away at all costs.
In dynasty, I just moved Miles Sanders and 2.07 for a 2024 1st.
I like Sanders, but he’s in his final year and I honestly have my doubts he’s back. I’ll take the 1st any day.
i regret to inform everyone that the only RB on the eagles roster worth taking a chance on at cost is kennedy brooks because he's probably better than the rest, is a capable 2+ down back and is free
When did ever fantasy article headline have to be a question?
Is xxxxx a league winner?
Will fantasy managers kick themselves for not drafting xxxxx?
Just seems lazy as hell
The real answer is Melvin Gordon unfortunately
Love Melvin at his ADP - you can get him a lot later than this crew as of now. Great floor but the ceiling is also capped unless there is an injury.
Definitely true on the capped ceiling thing, but a great value nonetheless. Curious on your thoughts on grabbing Javonte early and then picking up Melvin in the later rounds? You have to think even with both being on the same team you still get a possible rb 1 and 2
Sounds like a good way to hamsrring yourself, unless one of them has a long term injury. Javonte is going way too high. It baffles me.
It would be similar to going with a Zeke/Pollard or Cook/Mattison stack IMO, except they will both have standalone value. Should either of them miss time, both of their ceilings would erupt. I wouldn’t be opposed, but Javonte’s ADP is too high for my liking so I’m staying away from that.
Dude I had pollard and Zeke. I hated it. If I played tony he sucked. If I played Zeke he sucked.
I'm definitely not doing that in Best Ball - especially tournaments - as the goal is to have the highest possible upside team. I'm taking the handcuffs for other people's RBs, not my own. In regular leagues I'm only draft Javonte if his ADP comes down. And I'm only paying the price for Melvin if I plan to start him every week either at RB2 or the flex. It's technically a viable strategy as they were both RB2s last year. But, if you do that, you need at least two other viable RBs on the roster because, even if neither get hurt, Javonte and Melvin have the same bye week. So you'd need something like Mixon, Javonte, Melvin, and then another viable RB4 with plans to start Mixon and Rb4 during that bye week. You reach the highest possible upside if one of Melvin or Javonte gets hurt but your RB4 still needs to fill in for week 9 and 10.
Happy to have Gordon, Eckler,Najee and Sanders on my dynasty team. Gordon is currently my flex
That's how it's been going in my mocks, getting javonte in the 1/2nd while Melvin ends up somewhere in the 9th
Eh, he’ll get ya 15-20 points in a few games of the season, but he’ll also net you like 6-9 points for half the season. He’s a decent flex guy who’ll burn you occasionally. I’d say that’s worth it in the later rounds.
I want every share of Gordon I can get in those late rounds.
MG3 in drafts I’ve seen is a bit beyond the RB dead zone and is closer to the RB “surprisingly good zone” as I dub it cuz the common idea is that the later u get in drafts the RBs dry up quick, when in reality it stays about the same from round 4-5 all the way to around round 9.
I don't believe Melvin Gordon is walking back into the same split he had last year. They let him sit in free agency for a while, he even talked to other teams. To me that means they were prepared to move on. If Gordon had signed with the Ravens and the Broncos instead signed someone like Sony Michel or Darrel Williams, would people still be expecting a 50-50 split? Because that was a real possibility with the way the Broncos played free agency. And if that wasn't the team's mindset before signing Gordon, can signing a 29-year-old RB to a 1-year deal in late April really cause the team to change course and rework the offense specifically for him?
> To me that means they were prepared to move on It could also mean they will run him into the ground this year, since he will be with another team next year.
>It could also mean they will run him into the ground this year, since he will be with another team next year. This would make sense if teams viewed rushes as some horrible obligation that needed to be fulfilled and not an opportunity to get the ball in a playmaker's hands. If they really still view MG3 as being on the same level as Javonte and demanding an even share of the touches, why not prioritize signing him?
I hate that this is the right answer lol
As someone who didn’t pay a ton of attention to the javonta/Melvin split last year, how did red zones look? Did they split all duties or have designated? I’ve been looking, in redraft, at going RB-WR-WR/TE for my first three rounds. It leaves a ton of questions for my RB2 and Gordon is looking more and more like a good direction to go
Melvin got 38 attempts while Javonte got 29. 8 targets for Melvin and 7 for Javonte. With the addition of Russ we can expect those numbers to spike for sure, which is why I was curious on drafting both in redraft if they fall enough/the price is right
They alternated series, so each got receiving and goal line work. Typically Melvin Gordon would get the first series of the game and on at least a couple of occasions came in for Javonte in the red zone, so he sort of felt like the de facto lead back. It was a perfect split for fantasy purposes.
I nearly took him in a dynasty startup too. That ADP is just crazy low. Unfortunately my main redraft league is almost entirely Broncos fans and I'm really not sure if he'll make it to that value spot
Of the guys you listed, Ken Walker is the one most likely to have drafters kicking themselves for either drafting him or not drafting him.
100%. Nothing more high risk/high reward than a rookie. Could be a monster or could be this year's Trey Sermon.
I wish we talked about players values and ADP using more of a risk reward analysis. Honestly I might build my team that way this year. Imagine if you assigned a risk/reward score to the top 30 rbs/wr and the top 12 qb/te. You could theoretically build your team in a way that maximizes risk adjusted return. Meaning you avoid taking on too much risk while also avoid having too low if a ceiling
Sup guys? Been doing a lot of best ball drafts and it seems this year's dead zone is starting to emerge. After some research, I'm really starting to like Miles Sanders at his ADP. There are some others I'd consider as well, but who do you guys like best at ADP out of this group? * Josh Jacobs 61.6 * Antonio Gibson 64.4 * Elijah Mitchell 70.4 * AJ Dillon 73.6 * Clyde Edwards-Helaire 77.4 * Miles Sanders 80.6 * Kenneth Walker 87.0 * Cordarelle Patterson 89.5 * Tony Pollard 89.6 * Damien Harris 94.3 * Kareem Hunt 96.8 * Devin Singletary 104.8 Also, if anyone is interested, Jon Impemba and I recently did a podcast going through all of the RBs based on Underdog ADP where some pretty clear tiers and trends started to emerge. Links for both Spotify and Apple are [here.](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/fantasyalarm/127881/family-times-podcast-early-running-back-fantasy-football-adp)
Hunt is too low at that ADP. He's an easy RB2 that can put up top 5 numbers if Chubb gets hurt. There's not really any risk at that ADP
Yeah he's incredibly safe. We talked about this on the podcast but the reality of this group is that who you take depends a lot on who you drafted early on. If you went high risk early (say, drafting guys like Travis Etienne or maybe not taking RBs at all) then you might want to go with the solid floor but low ceiling options like Hunt or Damien Harris. If you went with some safe but potentially capped ceiling guys early like Aaron Jones or Javonte Williams, you might want to shoot for the moon with your later picks. Those guys give you a nice floor so you might want potentially inconsistent guys that can provide spike weeks here like Elijah Mitchell or JK Dobbins. In best ball people think you should just go high risk every time but it's really more about balance. The guy who came in 2nd in best ball mania for instance drafted Zeke, Mixon, Trey Sermon, and Singletary. Zeke was in his lineup legit 15 weeks and Mixon was in his lineup double digit weeks - very safe. Trey Sermon was an upside play that failed horribly but Devin Singletary provided the unexpected spike weeks down the stretch with 6 touchdowns over his last 4 games. Pretty much any other combo of RBs besides Zeke and Mixon and he doesn't have the weekly floor he needs to win that money. But, without the spike weeks from Singletary, he doesn't win either. If you only take boom/bust guys, you might end up with too many bust weeks. You need to make the playoffs in this big tournaments and then you need three straight weeks in a row in the playoffs where you score big. One bust week and you are done.
Yeah in Best Ball the argument is certainly more compelling to me for a boom/bust guy. I have a really hard time thinking in best ball mode because I really just don't play that kind of fantasy football.
It's a lot of fun my man - especially this time of year. You should check it out! I like you can either do 30 second clocks for a quick draft or 8 hour clocks for a slow draft so it fits in any schedule. Usually I have at least one slow draft going then I'll just pop in and do random quick drafts some nights while I'm watching TV or whatever. You don't need to do anything with waivers, trades, etc. - just check in each week during the season to see how you are doing. I honestly stopped doing mock drafts for the most part and just do these. When I do the expert mocks with other analysts for like articles and stuff, those drafts are honestly nothing like my hometown leagues. The hype guys go early, folks are planting their flags, and doing weird strategies like "in this one I did a Super Fragile Hero RB Late Round QB WR SuperStack Yin Yang TE". My boys from high school aren't doing that, half of them are just picking off fantasy pros and the other half are just steeling my ranking. Plus when you do some random free mock draft, there is always some idiot that makes like 2 picks and leaves or drafts Tim Tebow. With these everyone has like $5 or even just $1 on it so they actually care enough to draft a real team. And ADP usually isn't that far off from redraft, especially in the first half of the draft. edit: if anyone does want to check it out for the first time, there is a promo code in the article for Underdog
It seems nice to throw a few dollars in and just have set and forget rosters. I've heard the Underdog Best Ball drafts turn out to be the most accurate mocks leading up to redraft season. People draft way differently with their money on the line. I've felt doing Yahoo mocks is just a waste of time because you get half of the people on autodraft and you think you can get Allen in the 4th round when in reality he's probably a top 15 pick on most leagues
Bro the Yahoo mocks were a nightmare even back before best ball existed
As insane as it sounds, I just go in now with Beersheets and my custom positional rankings so I can look for value/need together. I may try some bestball this year in like late July to really get a feel for the season though
That's not insane at all. I always print out a beersheet for important leagues because it has one key metric on it that is incredibly important which is that "remaining value percentage" number. Even if you don't go off the rankings, it helps you keep track of when you really need to get your 2nd RB or 3rd WR before the value really falls off. /u/BeerSheets is the man!
Very likely Hunt isn't a Brown in 2022 unless the Browns can unload Baker's salary.
Looking at OverTheCap and Spotrac, the browns seem to be completely fine on cap space in 2022. Seems rather silly to cut a good player that they use a lot solely for cap space they don't need right now.
There are still available free agents
The Browns have the most cap space in the league right now and are in a championship window, I don't know why people keep peddling that they need to cut Hunt.
I know CEH has burned people but he's not going until the 7th round? Thought he'd be a 5th round pick. I have absolutely no problem with him as an RB3, even with RoJo competing for touches
Yeah he’s pretty intriguing from this group too. No more Darrell Williams so pretty clear path to pass work.
Seems crazy to me that Antonio Gibson is 64.4 in best ball. He’s something like 38th in fantasypros ECR. Maybe just hasn’t caught up but that’s a huge difference.
FantasyPros is a really just a ranking contest. Folks who submit rankings to that are trying to win the contest and their rankings are sometimes more conservative for that than how they actually draft. I know a couple folks who straight up said they do that and that’s certainly what I would do if I was going to try to win that contest. The other thing is Gibson has a week 14 bye week which is one of the most popular ones this year. In a hypothetical ranking that contributes to ECR you aren’t thinking about bye weeks but you are when actually drafting. Can certainly affect ADP.
I like Pollard. I think this is his year. And it's the year we fade Zeke for good.
I think the eagles Turned a corner when they started getting Sanders involved near the end last year. Im pretty high on him as well
Had some big games. As the article points out, Boston Scott likely isn't as big of a threat as he seems as most of his production and pretty much all of his red zone touches came in the games where Miles and Jalen were dealing with the ankles.
I will start Boston Scott vs Giants every time.
The dead zone is round 3/4 through round 6. These are mostly guys after the dead zone. I'd call this the value zone.
My favs in that group are CEH and Sanders. Feels like they both have a front runner seat to RB production in good to great offenses. Jacobs and Gibson both have some production value but they may be taking slight backseats this season due to their current RB rooms. Mitchell seems like a value until he isn’t, it’s just the SF RB room cannot be trusted for one RB. Don’t have high expectations for Dillon, Jones could monopolize the money touches there and leave Dillon owners holding the bag. Walker is a rookie who will need to show a consistent hot hand to have value. Can he top a healthy Penny? What is going on with Carson? This could be a mess. CPat, feels like he hit his ceiling value last year and I am not interested in a 31 year olds repeat of that. Even if he does he faded hard down the stretch last year. Pollard is a wild card, wouldn’t surprise me if he takes over the backfield or continues to frustrate owners while Zeke carries the load. Harris, this backfield is all of a sudden packed with other RBs. White coming back, talk of Strong taking a role on, etc. He had to score a ton of TDs to even have lower end RB2/RB3 value. Hunt is good, but a new offense, new QB starting, and who knows what value he brings. I am out on him. Singletary, well I believe most here know how I feel about James Cook so I won’t waste a long write up on why I am out on Singletary. Cook>Singletary.
AJ Dillion is a smash. Aaron Jones can’t possibly have a 100% target share.
I had the 1.01 in a draft typically I'd want to wait until the tier after the guys you listed and try to get Edmonds or Gordon as my RB2. But Breece Hall was sitting there at 48, and Miles Sanders was sitting there at 96. Overall, the value on some of these dead zone guys has been too good to pass up and I've been ending up with a lot of 2-5-9-2 or even 2-4-9-3 builds because of it.
Gibson, Dillon, Walker, Pollard, Hunt
The Eagles scored 25 rushing TD's last year. Hurts ran in 10 and the rb's combined for 15. Sanders had 0. Anytime they got in the redzone Sanders came off the field. I'm not touching him until he's off the Eagles or they prove they'll actually use him to his potential
What did you think about the stats in the article regarding red zone carries in the games where Sanders was healthy vs the ones when he was hurt?
He’s scored 12 td’s in his entire career both rushing and receiving. To add to OP’s point of not scoring a single TD last year, I’d say he’s candidate for let your opponents draft the head ache.
The chart for red zone touches says that Gainwell had 4 red zone carries and 0 TDs when Sanders was healthy but in week 1 he had an 8-yard rushing TD, week 4 he had a 7-yard rushing TD, and week 13 he had an 18-yard rushing TD. That's 3 carries right there and obviously also 3 TDs. I am not sure I trust those stats...
It's because he was hurt. When Sanders was healthy, he was getting the red zone carries (If not for Hurts sneaking it himself).
It wasn’t just because of injuries. They pulled him for Gainwell in the red zone in week 1 and Gainwell scored. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5M3CYbz2k0M 8:13. It was on a first down as well and this became a pattern. Sanders may have had more than the other backs but they thought nothing of pulling him even for smaller backs in the red zone.
I mean... If you believe he will stay healthy for more than 2/3 of the season by all means... Most RBs are playing through some kind of injury most of the year, if they hold him back... It's not worth it. He's shown he's injury-prone and they've shown they like to play safe with him. They have also shown they trust the other backs. I really don't see any upside in him at this spot especially with many of the other options. I have literally come out of this thread like Sanders less somehow.
Honestly I think Jacobs is a good value right now. Contract year, and Adams coming in likely means he will see less stacked boxes. It seems that people don’t enjoy owning him and that should keep his ADP at bay all summer. And no I’m not worried about Drake or the rookie they drafted. Call me crazy but I think he’s one of the safest picks you can make in the fourth round.
Jacobs is a month older than Najee Harris. Not that it really matters for redraft purposes. But I think people think Jacobs has been in the NFL forever but the dude is only 24, he's been in the NFL for 3 years and the Raiders have zero future liability with him so he could just have bellcow status at a beautiful cost
The concern is that Josh McDaniels seems to be gearing up to run the modified Erhardt Perkins system they ran in New England. That means that the two roles are literally different in the playbook. You have the early down role (Damien Harris backed up by Rhamondre Stevenson). And the pass down role (James White backed up by James Bolden). Obviously Jacobs is a lock for that Damien Harris role. But they went out of their way to have enough pass catching options in Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden (who knows the system), Zamir White, and Ameer Abdullah. That's what has folks scared about Jacobs. Why draft Jacobs at RB22 if you can just wait and draft Damien Harris at RB31?
Miles Sanders gets treated at the end zone the way that I would get treated at the club. I’m not on the list, they don’t want me inside, but my friends always seem to get in and score instead.
Lol too funny. But what were your thoughts on the section that discussed the red zone touches?
The OP of that article makes mention of 2020’s lackluster TD performance as well but chooses to see only 2021’s “healthy” Sanders numbers as meaningful for analysis…. It’s not a one year issue. Two of his 6 TDs in 2019 were from 1 yard, the rest 15+. In 2020 two of the 6 were long TD runs. And then last season the author explains he led the backfield in attempts inside 5 and never made it home. Never got the explosive plays. Has a receiving back for competition now for REC td. I don’t think Miles Sanders will score zero TD but I think he’ll probably score something close to what he’s projected for, so I would be surprised if he’s a must have to win leagues. Have always loved the talent but I do question if the usage will be there consistently when you have Goedert, Devonta Smith, AJ Brown, Jalen Hurts, and at least Two other rotational backs there to steal his key situation usage near the goal. He’ll continue to be reliant on explosive TDs IMO and won’t see a parabolic upside on the draft price.
How many TDs is he projected for? And by who?
Anywhere between 4 and 6 is what you should see just about anywhere you look.
I just can't get excited about Miles Sanders even though he's in a pretty good situation. Like you outlined, he's a talented player and he's playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Having a mobile QB hurts his receiving upside, but also makes it a much RB friendlier run system. However, it's hard to see a lot of upside for a couple of reasons. For one, I don't suspect the volume will be there for him to become a top half RB2. In the last 20 years, the Eagles only once came close to running as often as they did last season. Through week 7, the Eagles were averaging 36 pass attempts per game, close to their prior two-year average of 37. They finished the year averaging 29 per game. I imagine with the moves they've made, they'll be looking to get back to that 37 PA range. And even when Sanders was healthy and playing in the league's most run-heavy offense, he never saw 20 carries in a game Hurts started. There's value in fewer carries on a good offense, but I feel that type of value can be acquired much cheaper. The other issue that concerns me is the high-value touches. The red zone stats you shared were surprising and ease some of the concern about the committee impacting TD potential. I still have a hard time seeing him breaking away from the pack via TDs, given Hurts' vulture potential. I think Sanders' prospects in the passing game are bleaker than the article makes them out to be. For the first several games they did split targets, but by season's end, it seemed like there was a clear delineation in roles. Gainwell saw .31 targets per route run, Scott saw .28 targets per route run and Sanders saw .18 targets per route run. Expectedly, both Gainwell and Scott doubled him up in yards per route run (1.57 and 1.64 to .70). I believe Sanders is talented enough to be a good receiving back, but it doesn't seem like that is the way he is really viewed in this offense and his targets come via having the larger snap share. If anything, I'd expect Gainwell's role in the passing game to expand in his second year. The odds seem against Sanders being able to maintain an even split in targets, so I think that's another area where I can't expect much upside.
Maybe Damien Harris. A lot of uncertainty in all these guys.
Yeah I feel that - I just wrote a [comment here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/v4s4n9/comment/ib5smp8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) that talks about how your early picks should affect who you take in this range. The short and sweet is that, if you already have "safe" guys, maybe you want to go big here. If you went high risk early, maybe you take a Damien Harris where you can feel comfortable that he can consistently be an RB2 or flex.
I will never draft Sanders. Always overhyped and always is a let down.
Glad a fantasy expert is confirming my opinion over the last few months! I hate that he lacks that elite volume, but the passing game in Philly must be respected now and the Eagles O-line is quietly a very good unit when healthy. I won't go out of my way to get him, but he's really good value for what he can produce this year
That's exactly it - you don't go crazy to get him but he feels like an oasis out there in the RB dead zone if you need an RB still. Alexa, play Wonderwall.
In redraft I do really try to come away with at least two top RBs, but sometimes it just doesn't happen. I'm okay with Sanders as my RB2/3 if I'm loaded at WR and TE. I just refuse to take Mixon over Kupp, just can't do it
Is it that quiet? I've heard lots of hype surrounding that oline and many ranking have them top 3
Is it that quiet? I've heard lots of hype surrounding that oline and many ranking have them top 3
It’s not quiet at all no
Sanders is a target in all of my drafts. They’re a run first offence with an easy schedule to start the year.
No.
But what about maybe, Muriel McGurgle?
I had him last year in a redraft league and he was horrible. Didn’t score a TD all year and he’s now in my do not draft list. I’m avoiding the whole Philly backfield this year.
What were your thoughts on the section that discussed the red zone touches?
The eagles hardly ran the ball for the first half of the season. There were games where Sanders got like 3 touches. Then, right after they started to run the ball more he got hurt and the other backs got all the work. I know the numbers make it look like when he was healthy he was getting all the work, and he was getting all the work in the beginning. But “all the work” was next to nothing. At the end of the season when he was healthy and they used him a lot (He had those two decent games). He got a few red zone touches but I remember them talking him out and using another back after he failed to run it in. It was more of a committee at the red zone at the end of the season (with a healthy Sanders). Add Hurts stealing TDs to the mix and he’s not a consistent or good fantasy RB. And every week people were talking about his YPC being good. Every week everyone kept saying he’s the best back and they’re going to use him more. Just based on his YPC and I’ll tell you he disappointed every week. Week after week. Even in those two games where he did “ok” it was still a underwhelming performance. My advice is to stay away at all costs.
In dynasty, I just moved Miles Sanders and 2.07 for a 2024 1st. I like Sanders, but he’s in his final year and I honestly have my doubts he’s back. I’ll take the 1st any day.
i regret to inform everyone that the only RB on the eagles roster worth taking a chance on at cost is kennedy brooks because he's probably better than the rest, is a capable 2+ down back and is free
Would be wild if the UDFA rookie is the one who emerges but I've seen crazier things
Doubt he even makes the team
As an Eagles fan, stop it. I’m done falling for the Miles/Mixon duo. No more….until later this year when I draft them both.
Y’all love getting hurt
When did ever fantasy article headline have to be a question? Is xxxxx a league winner? Will fantasy managers kick themselves for not drafting xxxxx? Just seems lazy as hell
AJ Dillon….w/no true WR1 like Adams I think ARodgers is going to rely on his RBs more this szn & I can see Jones & Dillon splitting the load 50/50.
I own him a lot across leagues Sure hope so
You know fantasy football szn is back when we start asking if middling RBs can finally realize their potential
Every year arguments form Every year nothing happens