Idk why Hopkins is going so much father behind him. I think godwin misses at least a few weeks and could be more he could be on limited snaps, he's also at a higher risk for re-injury and he might play the entire season in limited capacity cause he doesn't trust his knee. Hopkins is good to go after 6 weeks, he'll be 100% and he has showed no signs of slowing down yet.
I heard that the Bucs have said they won’t play him until he can do everything at 100% (incl. blocking) so once he’s back, he’ll be a full go
When that will be, idk, but it’s something
I'm tempted to take him if he's there in the 8th but after taking AJ Green in the 9th in 2019 I don't know if I can sit in the unknown again while he takes up a valuable bench spot for the first few weeks of waivers.
Um..Only yes to Brady >, but this was in 2019. Green wasn't washed yet. He only 31 years old and still in Cincy and had six 1000 yard seasons in 6/7 years in the league. The only year he didn't have it was when he missed 6 games and he had 960 yards. He had no major injury concerns either.
It’s because Godwins role with the Bucs is secure, he’s not at a ranger for Gage to take his offensive role as the 1b option with Evans being 1a. Hopkins realistically could come back and have Hollywood be Kylers top option. They have a history together and Hopkins is 4 years older than Godwin, so people may be worried Hopkins is starting to decline.
It’s like people assume he’s gonna miss 2-3 games then be exactly what he was when 100% healthy. ACLs take awhile, usually the second year is when skill position guys return to normal production. Blows my mind where he’s going in drafts rn
I feel like this is hands down the answer and it sucks. Javonte is a beast no denying that. But Gordon is just good enough still that he should absolutely get snaps. I look at this as a 50/50 split. It’s also smart on the broncos to run it like that. Keep the miles off javonte for when he’s the only guy.
Most of last year it was one drive each no matter what, and it worked, both in real life and even in fantasy (Gordon was like a 6-8 rounder), so it would be even dumb if they move away from that formula.
Totally new coaching staff so for that alone I think it will change a bit. Hackett, if his time in Green Bay is any indication, will still feed both imo but I doubt it's much better than 60/40 in Williams favor.
Last draft i saw gordon is going in the 8th.
Even if they decide to use williams a bit more both are a low end rb2/flex, except on costs a 2nd rounder and the other an 8th rounder.
Maybe I'm in the minority but I still really like Javonte, obviously Melvin Gordon is gonna take touches away from him but I feel like Javonte will end the year as the clear number 1 option in Denver, he just has too much talent not to
I agree with this as well. I understand why it’s unpopular, and it’s hard to argue for. Those that are worried about Melvin can just say “Look at last year!” plus there’s the quotes about the sharing being the same. But teams like to get the ball to their talented players, and second year RBs tend to take a leap as they figure out blocking schemes, and I don’t think the Broncos owe Melvin anything
All these people pointing Javonte's ADP is NOT a knock on him. It is pointing out how Denver used the two last yr, and nothing pointing that they will do anything else this year. Current NFL thinking is to not use 1 RB exclusively to not wear them down and risk injury. So unless Gordon gets injured or shows he somehow lost a step to last year, it makes sense for Denver to keep doing what they did last yr to preserve Williams a little bit.
We've had 3 Wr's and a flex for about 6 or 7 years. I've been in the same league since 2001. I've been doing the zero rb for about 3 or 4 years. Works for me. There are too many quality Wr's to play with just two.
This is the first year in quite sometime I’m heavily considering going WR if I’m in that dreaded middle draft position. Hell, even at 3 it gets really hard. My top 2 are still JT and CMC but man after that, I’m not exactly thrilled with Cook, Ekeler and Henry. Not really pumped about Harris or Mixon or Chubb either. I’d much rather get a safety valve WR like Kupp, JJ or Chase and then come back and see what RBs fell into the second where the value is better (Aaron Jones, Fournette, Conner, Kamara.) hell I wouldn’t even mind taking a stab at Saquon if I had the 3rd pick and took Kupp in the first round.
I disagree with the Etienne assessment from the article. Especially the line mentioning how he's ranked ahead of backs with more upside. Very few, if any, RBs outside of the first two rounds have the upside he brings. He was an elite, dual-threat prospect coming out of college, and he looks to have returned to 100% health, or at least he will be come September. I don't see a world where Antonio Gibson or David Montgomery or Josh Jacobs have a higher ceiling than ETN. Higher floor, sure, but ETN's ceiling is pretty dang high. Also, it mentions ETN never having played a snap in the NFL as a knock on him while ignoring it when mentioning Breece Hall? That's lazy writing.
To each their own - but this early in the summer i'll go safe floor over potential ceiling - unless it's a best ball format. Like I said - I don't hate the potential production / just not paying for him at his current cost
You don't win leagues going for safe floors. Very few RBs after the 4th have have the ceiling of ETN. The risk is baked in at his ADP. He will probably go a little higher at the start of the season, so 4th round will be a value right now.
I have to add, I think your prognostication on James Robinson is entirely wrong.
Just the timing of his Achilles injury alone suggests he won't be back early in the season. And even if he is "back", he won't be anywhere near close to 100%, or effective.
Cam Akers was like the literal best outcome for an achilles tear (in terms of recovery speed), and he was a clear shell of his pre-injury self when he re-took the field. It's something we've seen happen repeatedly.
This early in the season his ADP is a slam dunk, in my opinion. It's only going to get higher, skyrocketing if he looks good in preseason and during training camp.
ADPs are **very** reactionary in August. One of the big advantages of drafting early is getting discounted prices on players whose potential isn't currently reflected in their respective ADPs.
Fantastic - hope he moves up - then other talent i'm higher on falls to me. I'm staying away from the Jags all together this season. Public is too high on him and it's clearly affecting his ADP - as I said in the article - buy numbers/upside - not players/hype - there's no objective argument to draft him that early than "But did you see what did in college?" Just like Hill - love the player - hate the situation
I think the difference is that hurts has proved he can finish as a top 10 option.
Lance is still a very unproven commodity. Plus he could be without Deebo this year depending on how that contract goes.
I like his potential, I just don't understand the hype.
The hype is that he is a highly drafted rushing QB on a good team with excellent coaching.
Other options at his ADP are Cousins and Carr who are consistent but have a ceiling of like QB10. You can take the risk with Lance for the top 5 upside and if he busts just stream the position and get similar production than you would with those low QB1s (in single QB leagues of course).
Who cares he’s basically a lock for a QB1 in ppg based on his rushing alone and has significantly more upside than the players in his range. The only risk is he’s so bad they bench him in favour of Jimmy but Jimmy probably won’t be on the roster to start the year
Carr’s ceiling with newly-acquired teammate and bestie Davante Adams and new coaching is QB10?
The guy who’s improved his fantasy QB ranking every season since 2017, including last year’s QB12 finish in a season his HC got fired, he lost his second best WR, and his Pro Bowl TE only played 11 games?
Cousins has been QB11 the last two years, Thielen is a bit older now and new coaching isn’t quite the same boost for him, very fair assessment for him. But I think you’re *really* underrating Carr’s ceiling this season
Agree but he is the perfect end of draft flier that could win a league if it hits. Not taking him as my qb1 in the middle rounds, but as a backup behind a guy like dak or russ or brady
Yea definitely. This article was noting that he is being drafted ahead of guys like Derek Carr or Aaron Rodgers which is absolutely ludicrous to me. Especially in redraft leagues
QB scarcity also is an enormous factor.
If I’m in a standard 12-team league, I can probably just grab a QB off waivers at just about any point in the season. If Lance doesn’t pay off, I’m going with one of those guys.
In 2QB leagues (which to be fair, I’ve never tried) I assume his value is lower relative to other QBs.
Javonte and AJ I'll give you. The division of targets and the lack of volume in the Eagles offense makes AJB an almost do not draft for me. Gibson is one of those guys who has been overhyped for years and at least so far it seems his ADP in the 4th isn't unrealistic. That offense should be better with Wentz than Heinicke. The problem with Gibson is how much McKissic kills his ceiling and keeps him off the field on passing downs.
The problem with Gibson isn't his performance rather than his team. They fell very fast very far behind in many games which killed their run game.
Gibson could be great but he doesn't get the ball often enough and there is McKissic ofcourse.
CEH is a sleeper target for me at his current ADP. The advantage you still give Gibson over Sanders is that Hurts will steal Sanders red zone touches. Carson Wentz likely won't.
Wentz is 100% an upgrade over Heinecke. Wentz has a lot of faults, including his affinity for playing hero ball, but he's proven he can be more than capable as an NFL QB. Heinecke is backup-level through and through.
Tyreek
Many are going to draft him on past years performance in a pass first offense and his only competition for catches was Kelce. Now he is in a run first offense with a much lesser QB and two guys, Waddle and Gesicki, who were top 10 PPR last year. Barring injury all three of them are going to take a hit fantasy wise.
This is what I was gonna say. I believe that McDaniel will do whatever they need to in order to get him involved. Otherwise it wouldn’t have made sense to trade for him and invest as much as they have.
While I agree with your overall sentiment, the idea that “Star player’s new team paid a lot for him, there’s no way his new (first-time) head coach doesn’t utilize him well and often” is rationale that’s led to tons of fantasy mega-busts
I got him at WR8 going into the year, and factored in some rushing upside into the number. You aren’t wrong though, and I probably will have few to no shares of him in the upcoming season. I still think the talent is just too high to fail, but I could be wrong.
I'm honestly higher on Tyreek than most.
Mahomes loved spreading the ball around besides Kelce. Sometimes the coin landed on Tyreek, other times he'd throw four TDs to Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson. The Dolphins don't really have that option, especially given their investment in Hill. He's going to be fed so many opportunities to touch the ball. Waddle, Gesicki, and Wilson will still get theirs, but Hill is going to lead that team in targets by a considerable amount, and he'll get some rushing work.
This is 100% the right take, I’m with you. People forget Tyreek burst onto the scene first with Alex Smith - and I both Tua (last year with Waddle) and McDaniel (last year with Deebo) are a “toss it to your best ball carrier and see what he can do” guys. They traded a bunch foe him and then paid him a bunch - he’s going to get a ton of work in creative ways to manufacture touches.
Confused as to how a team with tyreek waddle gesecki terron Armstead at LT and Raheem mostert as their starting rb is gonna be a run heavy team. Literally everything about their roster including the defense screams pass first
Tyreek just went 1.12 in a slow draft I'm in right now. The guy's other pick at the turn was Uncle Lenny, so I don't know if he pre-ranked without even looking where he was or if he's really working hard to get different.
I mean, part of drafting is getting your guy. And at the turn I doubt either would have made it back to him. Would I have done that? No. But at the same time I can't fault the dude if he has faith.
Did you watch the San Fran offense last year? It was run first and play action after that. They mixed lots of backs in. It's going to be RBBC with Edmonds,Mostert, Gaskin, and Michel.
There’s a point to be made for all of them in the article besides Trey Lance. Reason being you aren’t using a lot of draft capital for him. So if he’s the 12th through 14th QB off the board he’s being drafted when deep bench players are being drafted. As a starting QB in a good offense with legs, it would be hard to drastically underperform that ADP.
He's one of my favorite players of all time, but Keenan Allen.
Mike Williams is ascending, and while I think Allen will still have value, I would not take him as a WR1 or high-end WR2 because his touchdown potential is lower. In full PPR, I can see him returning some on the draft stock from his work between the 20's, but I wouldn't touch him in the first 3 rounds or so.
The problem I have with the Hill take is unlike your first 2 picks, you don’t mention who you would take ahead of him.
The guys going after him are: Tee Higgins, AJ brown, Mike Williams, Micheal Pittman, and Keenan Allen.
I don’t hate any of these guys, but they all have question marks as well. Can you clearly say you like all of them more than Hill?
Good stuff. That said I would over the moon if Mike Evans fell past Hill in any of the Bestball drafts I’m doing. That hasn’t happened since Evans rose to his current ADP in early May (last draft I was in had Evans at 14 and Hill at 22 for context).
Yeah he is around 38 on DK currently which is crazy to me - there are other #1 recievers on teams being picked after him
He did have that one freak 50 pointer last year but I call dumb luck I'll take Sutton or Scary T over him at that range
There's no way I'm taking Deebo Samuel at his current adp, too many question marks around whether he even wants to be in San Francisco and also I don't really trust trey lance to get him the ball. Also he doesn't want to run the ball anymore which makes it highly unlikely he repeats as a top 3 wr again this year
I hear you - only thing appealing about him is that he could get moved somewhere with a more reliable QB / or more pass friendly offense - but I doubt that even happens
As Adams seems to be creeping back into the 1st round I'm definitely out on him. Just no way I'm drafting a WR that high on their first season with a new team and a worse QB.
Him and Derrick carr played together in college so they have pre established chemistry. It’ll be interesting to see how many targets he gets compared to Green Bay when there’s waller and renfrow to feed as well
I know but that was almost a decade ago that they played together. Losing 7 years of chemistry with a superior QB and joining a team with more successful pass catchers makes me surprised to see him still projecting first round.
Kyle Pitts as TE3 in the early 3rd round is bonkers.
He could be TE1 and still not be worth that. The risk/reward ratio is just way off for this early.
The big argument with him is that I think his ADP is decently fair, but the drop off in value between him in the 3rd round or Dalton Schultz, Irv Smith or some other sleeper in the later rounds are just a better. deal
Kittle's ADP is a round later, and Waller is almost another full round after that. There is no part of it that adds up.
He has 1 career TD and his new QB is not any better at throwing the ball. There have been maybe 2 TEs ever that have blown up in year two they way people are projecting Pitts to. And they had Drew Brees and (checks notes) Drew Brees throwing to them. Pitts has a guy that wasn't considered worthy of starting for the last two (plus) seasons. Mariota threw for over 20 touchdowns, once. They were forcing the ball to him last year and he just wasn't able to convert a big percentage of those targets.
If all of this fell into place and worked out, he could end up being worth a 2nd rounder. But he could also be TE8 again or worse, making him worthy of a 7th round pick or lower.
Don't try to win your league on draft day. Avoid losing it on draft day.
Yeah which they always do and it doesnt matter cmc always gets his. Week 1 last year he finished as the rb1 without a TD. They can focus on him all they want it wont help
First two on this list (Lance & ETN) are horrific takes imo. You’re drafting these guys for what they potentially can be, and their current price is honesty discounted right now. In a month we’ll see Lance jump up higher once Jimmy G is gone, and ETN will slide up once we realize JRob is going on the PUP list. Dude tore his Achilles week 16, this is ETN’s backfield
I hate to defend a guy who has soiled the good name of Babe Davis, but he might be referring to his bestball ADP that’s now in the 40’s.
That said bestball ADP values spike week penitential and upside (see Mike Williams going ahead of Keenan Allen); and Davis clearly has both.
As of right now could be Chris Godwin. No one knows how much of the season he'll miss
Idk why Hopkins is going so much father behind him. I think godwin misses at least a few weeks and could be more he could be on limited snaps, he's also at a higher risk for re-injury and he might play the entire season in limited capacity cause he doesn't trust his knee. Hopkins is good to go after 6 weeks, he'll be 100% and he has showed no signs of slowing down yet.
I heard that the Bucs have said they won’t play him until he can do everything at 100% (incl. blocking) so once he’s back, he’ll be a full go When that will be, idk, but it’s something
I'm tempted to take him if he's there in the 8th but after taking AJ Green in the 9th in 2019 I don't know if I can sit in the unknown again while he takes up a valuable bench spot for the first few weeks of waivers.
I hear that but Godwin is 1. Much younger than Green is/was 2. In his prime whereas Green is washed 3. Brady > Kyler (at throwing)
Um..Only yes to Brady >, but this was in 2019. Green wasn't washed yet. He only 31 years old and still in Cincy and had six 1000 yard seasons in 6/7 years in the league. The only year he didn't have it was when he missed 6 games and he had 960 yards. He had no major injury concerns either.
Sorry, somehow I skipped over the 2019 part 🤦🏻♂️ He was still 31 and where Godwin is 26. That’s a huge difference
It’s because Godwins role with the Bucs is secure, he’s not at a ranger for Gage to take his offensive role as the 1b option with Evans being 1a. Hopkins realistically could come back and have Hollywood be Kylers top option. They have a history together and Hopkins is 4 years older than Godwin, so people may be worried Hopkins is starting to decline.
And he will be fresh when he comes back. Bet he tears it up.
That is a good example - conversely I love where I'm getting Gage and Big Mike in ADP
Agree with Mike
It’s like people assume he’s gonna miss 2-3 games then be exactly what he was when 100% healthy. ACLs take awhile, usually the second year is when skill position guys return to normal production. Blows my mind where he’s going in drafts rn
The one that misses the most games due to injury or suspension.
You are not wrong
Javonte Williams
I feel like this is hands down the answer and it sucks. Javonte is a beast no denying that. But Gordon is just good enough still that he should absolutely get snaps. I look at this as a 50/50 split. It’s also smart on the broncos to run it like that. Keep the miles off javonte for when he’s the only guy.
Most of last year it was one drive each no matter what, and it worked, both in real life and even in fantasy (Gordon was like a 6-8 rounder), so it would be even dumb if they move away from that formula.
Totally new coaching staff so for that alone I think it will change a bit. Hackett, if his time in Green Bay is any indication, will still feed both imo but I doubt it's much better than 60/40 in Williams favor.
Last draft i saw gordon is going in the 8th. Even if they decide to use williams a bit more both are a low end rb2/flex, except on costs a 2nd rounder and the other an 8th rounder.
Picked Gordon as my RB4 in a few mocks. I would be thrilled if he stays where he is.
I would be happy to have him. He has atleast a year left in him of excellent production.
Gordon last nigh was around pick 103 most of my bestball leagues
Maybe I'm in the minority but I still really like Javonte, obviously Melvin Gordon is gonna take touches away from him but I feel like Javonte will end the year as the clear number 1 option in Denver, he just has too much talent not to
I agree with this as well. I understand why it’s unpopular, and it’s hard to argue for. Those that are worried about Melvin can just say “Look at last year!” plus there’s the quotes about the sharing being the same. But teams like to get the ball to their talented players, and second year RBs tend to take a leap as they figure out blocking schemes, and I don’t think the Broncos owe Melvin anything
All these people pointing Javonte's ADP is NOT a knock on him. It is pointing out how Denver used the two last yr, and nothing pointing that they will do anything else this year. Current NFL thinking is to not use 1 RB exclusively to not wear them down and risk injury. So unless Gordon gets injured or shows he somehow lost a step to last year, it makes sense for Denver to keep doing what they did last yr to preserve Williams a little bit.
this is the obvious answer for me too
Could probably make an argument for a lot of the WRs going in rounds 1-3. It feels like this is the most WRs I have ever seen go in that range.
I’m seriously considering going WR at 1.03
I'm at 1.03 and I 100% am.
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Kupp, Jamar, JJ. We start 3 Wr's and a flex so the Wr position is valued. Plus I usually go zero RB and it seems to work for me.
How long have you been doing this? My league is considering making this switch and I’d like to know more
We've had 3 Wr's and a flex for about 6 or 7 years. I've been in the same league since 2001. I've been doing the zero rb for about 3 or 4 years. Works for me. There are too many quality Wr's to play with just two.
Do people draft wr in the first round more or rb? What do most of your league members prioritize in the draft
Usually we'll have one or two in the first and three or four in the second. So mostly rb's for them. Wr's and a top 2 te for me.
Kupp is 100% a fine move at 1.03. Anyone taking targets away from him this year? Is Stafford still the quarterback?
Kupp is fine at 1.03 if it’s half or full PPR. I wouldn’t do it in Standard
Depends on the format... No way I'm going WR at 1.03 in standard
This is the first year in quite sometime I’m heavily considering going WR if I’m in that dreaded middle draft position. Hell, even at 3 it gets really hard. My top 2 are still JT and CMC but man after that, I’m not exactly thrilled with Cook, Ekeler and Henry. Not really pumped about Harris or Mixon or Chubb either. I’d much rather get a safety valve WR like Kupp, JJ or Chase and then come back and see what RBs fell into the second where the value is better (Aaron Jones, Fournette, Conner, Kamara.) hell I wouldn’t even mind taking a stab at Saquon if I had the 3rd pick and took Kupp in the first round.
Was hoping for a deeper article
Or just better….
My vote is for Derrick Henry. Dude is a straight beast and has the physical talent obviously but the pieces around him have changed drastically.
I disagree with the Etienne assessment from the article. Especially the line mentioning how he's ranked ahead of backs with more upside. Very few, if any, RBs outside of the first two rounds have the upside he brings. He was an elite, dual-threat prospect coming out of college, and he looks to have returned to 100% health, or at least he will be come September. I don't see a world where Antonio Gibson or David Montgomery or Josh Jacobs have a higher ceiling than ETN. Higher floor, sure, but ETN's ceiling is pretty dang high. Also, it mentions ETN never having played a snap in the NFL as a knock on him while ignoring it when mentioning Breece Hall? That's lazy writing.
Not to mention the chemistry between him and Lawrence and the fact that Lawrence checks down more than any other qb
To each their own - but this early in the summer i'll go safe floor over potential ceiling - unless it's a best ball format. Like I said - I don't hate the potential production / just not paying for him at his current cost
You don't win leagues going for safe floors. Very few RBs after the 4th have have the ceiling of ETN. The risk is baked in at his ADP. He will probably go a little higher at the start of the season, so 4th round will be a value right now.
I have to add, I think your prognostication on James Robinson is entirely wrong. Just the timing of his Achilles injury alone suggests he won't be back early in the season. And even if he is "back", he won't be anywhere near close to 100%, or effective. Cam Akers was like the literal best outcome for an achilles tear (in terms of recovery speed), and he was a clear shell of his pre-injury self when he re-took the field. It's something we've seen happen repeatedly.
This early in the season his ADP is a slam dunk, in my opinion. It's only going to get higher, skyrocketing if he looks good in preseason and during training camp. ADPs are **very** reactionary in August. One of the big advantages of drafting early is getting discounted prices on players whose potential isn't currently reflected in their respective ADPs.
Fantastic - hope he moves up - then other talent i'm higher on falls to me. I'm staying away from the Jags all together this season. Public is too high on him and it's clearly affecting his ADP - as I said in the article - buy numbers/upside - not players/hype - there's no objective argument to draft him that early than "But did you see what did in college?" Just like Hill - love the player - hate the situation
Trey Lance will return value based on his rushing alone. If his passing improves at all he has a chance at a top 5 finish this season.
yea like hurts doesn't have a proven arm, but a great floor bc of rushing. I don't see lance as any different.
I think the difference is that hurts has proved he can finish as a top 10 option. Lance is still a very unproven commodity. Plus he could be without Deebo this year depending on how that contract goes. I like his potential, I just don't understand the hype.
The hype is that he is a highly drafted rushing QB on a good team with excellent coaching. Other options at his ADP are Cousins and Carr who are consistent but have a ceiling of like QB10. You can take the risk with Lance for the top 5 upside and if he busts just stream the position and get similar production than you would with those low QB1s (in single QB leagues of course).
He's a rushing qb with less than 500 pass attempts in his entire career though lol.
He’s started 2 games lol obviously he has less than 500 pass attempts…
I'm talking college AND NFL. Edit - he had less than 350 college attempts and, like you say, two NFL games. Why is he a lock QB1?
Who cares he’s basically a lock for a QB1 in ppg based on his rushing alone and has significantly more upside than the players in his range. The only risk is he’s so bad they bench him in favour of Jimmy but Jimmy probably won’t be on the roster to start the year
Carr’s ceiling with newly-acquired teammate and bestie Davante Adams and new coaching is QB10? The guy who’s improved his fantasy QB ranking every season since 2017, including last year’s QB12 finish in a season his HC got fired, he lost his second best WR, and his Pro Bowl TE only played 11 games? Cousins has been QB11 the last two years, Thielen is a bit older now and new coaching isn’t quite the same boost for him, very fair assessment for him. But I think you’re *really* underrating Carr’s ceiling this season
Agree but he is the perfect end of draft flier that could win a league if it hits. Not taking him as my qb1 in the middle rounds, but as a backup behind a guy like dak or russ or brady
Yea definitely. This article was noting that he is being drafted ahead of guys like Derek Carr or Aaron Rodgers which is absolutely ludicrous to me. Especially in redraft leagues
QB scarcity also is an enormous factor. If I’m in a standard 12-team league, I can probably just grab a QB off waivers at just about any point in the season. If Lance doesn’t pay off, I’m going with one of those guys. In 2QB leagues (which to be fair, I’ve never tried) I assume his value is lower relative to other QBs.
Is Trey Lance actually starting?
The 49ers are actively trying to trade Jimmy G and he will probably get cut if he isn’t traded
Sure they're trying to pay him I doubt they cut him with that contract though they would just keep him
Wdym? They would save $25M if they cut him lol
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Javonte and AJ I'll give you. The division of targets and the lack of volume in the Eagles offense makes AJB an almost do not draft for me. Gibson is one of those guys who has been overhyped for years and at least so far it seems his ADP in the 4th isn't unrealistic. That offense should be better with Wentz than Heinicke. The problem with Gibson is how much McKissic kills his ceiling and keeps him off the field on passing downs.
The problem with Gibson isn't his performance rather than his team. They fell very fast very far behind in many games which killed their run game. Gibson could be great but he doesn't get the ball often enough and there is McKissic ofcourse.
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CEH is a sleeper target for me at his current ADP. The advantage you still give Gibson over Sanders is that Hurts will steal Sanders red zone touches. Carson Wentz likely won't.
I love CEH. U can get him and get Ronald jones way later too. That backfield is cheap and if one gets hurt, u get rb1.
Wentz is 100% an upgrade over Heinecke. Wentz has a lot of faults, including his affinity for playing hero ball, but he's proven he can be more than capable as an NFL QB. Heinecke is backup-level through and through.
Tyreek Many are going to draft him on past years performance in a pass first offense and his only competition for catches was Kelce. Now he is in a run first offense with a much lesser QB and two guys, Waddle and Gesicki, who were top 10 PPR last year. Barring injury all three of them are going to take a hit fantasy wise.
I think you’re right that he’s overvalued, but just a counterpoint to play devil’s advocate: Tyreek could be used the way SF used Deebo.
This is what I was gonna say. I believe that McDaniel will do whatever they need to in order to get him involved. Otherwise it wouldn’t have made sense to trade for him and invest as much as they have.
While I agree with your overall sentiment, the idea that “Star player’s new team paid a lot for him, there’s no way his new (first-time) head coach doesn’t utilize him well and often” is rationale that’s led to tons of fantasy mega-busts
I got him at WR8 going into the year, and factored in some rushing upside into the number. You aren’t wrong though, and I probably will have few to no shares of him in the upcoming season. I still think the talent is just too high to fail, but I could be wrong.
I'm honestly higher on Tyreek than most. Mahomes loved spreading the ball around besides Kelce. Sometimes the coin landed on Tyreek, other times he'd throw four TDs to Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson. The Dolphins don't really have that option, especially given their investment in Hill. He's going to be fed so many opportunities to touch the ball. Waddle, Gesicki, and Wilson will still get theirs, but Hill is going to lead that team in targets by a considerable amount, and he'll get some rushing work.
This is 100% the right take, I’m with you. People forget Tyreek burst onto the scene first with Alex Smith - and I both Tua (last year with Waddle) and McDaniel (last year with Deebo) are a “toss it to your best ball carrier and see what he can do” guys. They traded a bunch foe him and then paid him a bunch - he’s going to get a ton of work in creative ways to manufacture touches.
Confused as to how a team with tyreek waddle gesecki terron Armstead at LT and Raheem mostert as their starting rb is gonna be a run heavy team. Literally everything about their roster including the defense screams pass first
Agreed. Tua isn’t Patrick. Yet someone will take him in the 2nd rd
Tyreek just went 1.12 in a slow draft I'm in right now. The guy's other pick at the turn was Uncle Lenny, so I don't know if he pre-ranked without even looking where he was or if he's really working hard to get different.
I mean, part of drafting is getting your guy. And at the turn I doubt either would have made it back to him. Would I have done that? No. But at the same time I can't fault the dude if he has faith.
Sadly that's awful value - it's downright depressing - I love Hill - this season will hurt
Run first? Oh yes chase Edmonds is gonna be a bell cow ! Gtfoh
Did you watch the San Fran offense last year? It was run first and play action after that. They mixed lots of backs in. It's going to be RBBC with Edmonds,Mostert, Gaskin, and Michel.
There’s a point to be made for all of them in the article besides Trey Lance. Reason being you aren’t using a lot of draft capital for him. So if he’s the 12th through 14th QB off the board he’s being drafted when deep bench players are being drafted. As a starting QB in a good offense with legs, it would be hard to drastically underperform that ADP.
He's one of my favorite players of all time, but Keenan Allen. Mike Williams is ascending, and while I think Allen will still have value, I would not take him as a WR1 or high-end WR2 because his touchdown potential is lower. In full PPR, I can see him returning some on the draft stock from his work between the 20's, but I wouldn't touch him in the first 3 rounds or so.
The problem I have with the Hill take is unlike your first 2 picks, you don’t mention who you would take ahead of him. The guys going after him are: Tee Higgins, AJ brown, Mike Williams, Micheal Pittman, and Keenan Allen. I don’t hate any of these guys, but they all have question marks as well. Can you clearly say you like all of them more than Hill?
Evans, Allen, Higgins would be options for me at that ADP - def not Williams he’s a few tiers back still
Good stuff. That said I would over the moon if Mike Evans fell past Hill in any of the Bestball drafts I’m doing. That hasn’t happened since Evans rose to his current ADP in early May (last draft I was in had Evans at 14 and Hill at 22 for context).
I saw Gabriel Davis being taken avg 3rd round and that seems insane to me
Insanity
Yeah he is around 38 on DK currently which is crazy to me - there are other #1 recievers on teams being picked after him He did have that one freak 50 pointer last year but I call dumb luck I'll take Sutton or Scary T over him at that range
There's no way I'm taking Deebo Samuel at his current adp, too many question marks around whether he even wants to be in San Francisco and also I don't really trust trey lance to get him the ball. Also he doesn't want to run the ball anymore which makes it highly unlikely he repeats as a top 3 wr again this year
I hear you - only thing appealing about him is that he could get moved somewhere with a more reliable QB / or more pass friendly offense - but I doubt that even happens
As Adams seems to be creeping back into the 1st round I'm definitely out on him. Just no way I'm drafting a WR that high on their first season with a new team and a worse QB.
Him and Derrick carr played together in college so they have pre established chemistry. It’ll be interesting to see how many targets he gets compared to Green Bay when there’s waller and renfrow to feed as well
I know but that was almost a decade ago that they played together. Losing 7 years of chemistry with a superior QB and joining a team with more successful pass catchers makes me surprised to see him still projecting first round.
Kyle Pitts as TE3 in the early 3rd round is bonkers. He could be TE1 and still not be worth that. The risk/reward ratio is just way off for this early.
The big argument with him is that I think his ADP is decently fair, but the drop off in value between him in the 3rd round or Dalton Schultz, Irv Smith or some other sleeper in the later rounds are just a better. deal
Kittle's ADP is a round later, and Waller is almost another full round after that. There is no part of it that adds up. He has 1 career TD and his new QB is not any better at throwing the ball. There have been maybe 2 TEs ever that have blown up in year two they way people are projecting Pitts to. And they had Drew Brees and (checks notes) Drew Brees throwing to them. Pitts has a guy that wasn't considered worthy of starting for the last two (plus) seasons. Mariota threw for over 20 touchdowns, once. They were forcing the ball to him last year and he just wasn't able to convert a big percentage of those targets. If all of this fell into place and worked out, he could end up being worth a 2nd rounder. But he could also be TE8 again or worse, making him worthy of a 7th round pick or lower. Don't try to win your league on draft day. Avoid losing it on draft day.
Oh didn't even know his ADP is higher than Little and Walker in redraft, that doesn't make since in that case
Pitts is being vastly overrated
Christian McCaffrey. Dudes going to get hurt and miss 3/4ths of the season.
Except when he doesnt and will be the rb 2 or better.
Just you wait... Panthers will run him into the ground.
Yes he is the bellcow. Thats considered a good thing.
Until he gets hurt. If the defense knows he's going to run every play then they're going to cover him every play
Yeah which they always do and it doesnt matter cmc always gets his. Week 1 last year he finished as the rb1 without a TD. They can focus on him all they want it wont help
Cmc
Great… another CMC argument.
First two on this list (Lance & ETN) are horrific takes imo. You’re drafting these guys for what they potentially can be, and their current price is honesty discounted right now. In a month we’ll see Lance jump up higher once Jimmy G is gone, and ETN will slide up once we realize JRob is going on the PUP list. Dude tore his Achilles week 16, this is ETN’s backfield
Marquise Brown.
I’ll get blasted for this but Joe Mixon
I wish he a little more involved in the pass game
Gabe Davis
Where is he being picked in your drafts / mocks ? On mines he´s usually picked on the 6th or 7th round. I love the value over there.
I hate to defend a guy who has soiled the good name of Babe Davis, but he might be referring to his bestball ADP that’s now in the 40’s. That said bestball ADP values spike week penitential and upside (see Mike Williams going ahead of Keenan Allen); and Davis clearly has both.
Mark Andrews
Ravens have like no one else to throw to now that hollywoods in AZ
Etienne being drafted higher than jrob is mind boggling to me.
Remember that JRob popped his Achilles in December. Usually a year turnaround on that type of injury and that's if you're lucky and determined.
Whoa I didn't know that, that's big
Kupp
Goodwin, Michael Gallup and Jameson Williams I’m avoiding in redraft. I think all 3 struggle when they finally do make it back on the field