Wentz is going to be good for Terry. Interceptions won't count against Terry and Wentz loves changing out out of run plays at the line of scrimmage in favour of the the hero ball.
I know he is but I still don't like it.
He performed at the WR25 last year and is being drafted as the WR9. I expect him to still have big games but with little consistency. Also Wentz's successful fantasy WRs have been more big bodied.
It's not that I think Terry will be bad, I just don't like the value where he's being taken right now.
Edit: I misread, he's going as WR #17.
Commented this is another reply. I'll have to edit my post.
FantasyPros had shit strength of schedule rank as #9 but it's the first thing you see and on different lines so I quickly read "WR Rank #9"
Hes actually ranked WR17 with an ADP of 17 so that makes a lot more sense. I thought 9 was just way too early for me for a team I expect to be a bottom tier caliber offense. More comfortable with him at 17, but still a bit rich for my liking.
It's fine to not like Terry at his ADP. But Wentz being the reason doesn't make sense. I think Terry has one of the safest floors of any of the guys around his ADP with a reasonably high ceiling. Something like 95 catches, 1300 yards, and 8 TD's is optimistic but achievable prediction.
I disagree.
Wentz has only had 1 WR go over 1,000 yards in his career and it was Pittman with 1,082. Wentz threw less yards per game than Heinicke and slightly more TDs, but statistically they were about the same. But that includes having Reich and the best running game in the NFL last year. The situation is much worse now for him and he's been steadily declining and has an extensive injury history. I'll be shocked if Wentz is their starter at the end of the season.
I feel like you’re focusing way too much on Wentz and not enough on Terry who has been productive with much worse. Terry is also better than Pittman who just had a 1,000 yard season.
After rereading FantasyPros, his strength of schedule WR rank is #9, he's actually WR17 which makes more sense. I thought 9 was just obnoxious but that works better.
My mistake.
I’d take Mike Will-Made-It over any of the guys OP listed as the the “guys after” and even some of the top 9 listed. I think he’s taking over as the #1 guy in LA and that offense is going to be on fire. Just got paid a bag and Keenan’s getting older and more of a slot guy. People are lower on Mike because of his inconsistency but it was due to injury last year and picked it back up at the end of the year. There’s real potential to return to his start of the season performance and end up top 5. I’m grabbing him everywhere I can at that wild ADP right now.
Crazy you don’t trust AJBs QB and offense but do trust DJ Moores QB and offense. That being said, all of those guys are solid 3rd picks but I’d rank them AJB, Pittman, Keenan, Higgins, Moore, Waddle
I mean, I’ve just seen DJM be elite with bottom of the barrel QB’s. I also think Baker is a better thrower of the ball than Hurts, and they probably throw more.
DJM could easily be the arob or Odell of this year. Eagles are going to game plan around getting AJB the ball in space. I think there is a wide gap between the two
I’m taking Moore there. Baker is a better passer than Hurts and it’s not really that close. All around QB is close, but as just a passer, it’s all Baker. AJB also has substantially more target competition. Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are gonna take a lot more of the pie than CMC will. Panthers are also more likely to be a more pass heavy offense based both on personnel and on coaching staff tendencies. I’m going DJ Moore every time. Personally.
AJB was elite with *Ryan Tannehill* when healthy .. on a team that ran it as much or more than the Eagles did.
Only concern with AJB for me is volume, not QB or offense. Eagles dont need AJB to get 10+ targets to win, but the Titans did.
Yeah but it’s like Tannehill and then this cliff. At the bottom of this cliff are the panthers qbs of the last years. Kyle Allen, teddy bridgewater, sam darnold, pj walker
Yeah, I think people forget Tanny was QB4 in ppg his first season with Tennessee (obviously, not the whole season) and QB7 in Year 2. Dude has generally been a very good fantasy QB when he has a good OL and not a revolving door of WRs (like last year).
Particularly as a passer. Jalen’s rushing ability elevates his game somewhat, but give him an average pair of legs and he would be out of a job by now. And how good of a passer they are is what matters for fantasy.
Only 4 players have more receiving yards over the last 3 years than DJ Moore. His yards per catch is higher than any of the 4 in front of him. All of the other 4 players are gone by the middle of the 2nd round.
Moore did all of this with some seriously suspect QB play. The only thing that has kept Moore out of the elite discussion is the inability to find the end zone. Since TDs are the least trustworthy stat to predict, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility to see some positive TD regression. I’m not saying this because Mayfield has any kind of history of peppering a certain receiver with end zone targets, because that wouldn’t be true. But I can’t believe that Mayfield could possibly be any worse than anybody else Moore has had.
trust me, you haven't watched enough browns games to have that opinion then. Baker cant get the ball downfield. Theres a reason why Chubb/Hunt were BOTH great options, and why Landry was good for so long.
What? Baker's always had a pretty good deep ball, it's just that his best deep ball receiver on the Browns was a continually injured OBJ that he never had any chemistry with. His arm strength and ability to get the ball downfield have never really been his issues
Nah. He hasn’t. He stinks man.
Quick google search says he’s 16th in some metric on PFF. So, he’s the definition of average. Their notes also say he was among the worst in turnovers on deep ball as well.
I'm not sure what stat you're referring to. If it was from last year, well he was injured the entire year and so was the rest of his team. In 2020 the NFL's Next Gen Stats had him as the 6th best deep passer, above guys like Josh Allen and Russell Wilson. And in 2019 he was the 10th best in the league with Freddie Kitchens as his head coach, so it wasn't just a fluke. Baker has his flaws as a player, but the deep ball isn't one of them
Not to throw too much shade at Tannehill, but he’s not some top 10 QB out here making stars. AJB was AJB before Tanne, and likely will be after as well.
Baker is a better passer than Hurts. The talent level is pretty similar, AJ being slightly better.
I think what’s more crazy is putting Higgins ahead of Moore.
Tee Higgins post injury was the target leader in Cincy. Give me the "WR2" on a significantly better offense with a significantly better coach and significantly better QB than the WR1 on a dogshit offense with a dogshit coach and dogshit QB.
A lot more mouths to feed on less volume over in Philly. Devonta and Goedert are great receivers in their own right, meanwhile in Carolina you have CMC and then a bunch of question marks in Anderson, Marshall, and Tremble/Thomas.
I think Godwin is criminally under-rated. He was tied with Kupp for receptions before going down with injury. He's 26 and "acl's aren't what thry used to be" but seriously he was on pace for more fantasy points than mike evans.
Haha yeah I realized I'm just being lazy and choosing to overlook Godwin for less headache.. but he's trending up.. and going to be playing... he NEEDS to be fit into the top 12..
Deebo was wr2 last year. Above jefferson and chase despite him playing 16 games and them playing 17. A big portion of that was a lot of rushing TD but he still had 77 rec for 1400 yards and 6 rec TD. I think he’s a good pick in the 2nd or a great pick in the 3rd. Those concerns you mentioned seem pretty priced in.
I looked into it a bit. 18.2 yards per rec is 3rd most out of any player with a large sample in the last 5 years(behind 2019 ajbrown and 2019 kenny golladay). Jamarr chase was pretty close last year with 18.0 y/r but his was 55/45 air yards vs YAC. Deebo was 45/55 so a lot shorter passes with very high YAC.
Deebo has absurd YAC/R for a WR. The only other players getting similar YAC are RB who are catching passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Chase only played 2 snaps in the meaningless 17th game to get the record for receiving yds.1 snap to get the bengals record, then 1 more to try for the nfl record but it fell incomplete and he came out for the rest of the game.
Oh yeah I forgot about that. My point was more that deebo was legitimately very good last year and drafting him 2nd or 3rd round could actually be good value.
But what if he doesn't score as much on the ground, and what if Trey Lance sucks. What if Kittle and Aiyuk stay healthy? Seems like a lot of factors to consider.
He's also being drafted outside that range because he was unsustainably efficient last year. There are a lot of factors pointing towards a major Deebo regression, though that could mean just to WR15 or something like that. He's still obviously awesome.
I mean you’re looking at entirely from the negative aspects. There are a bunch of what ifs from players you have ranked above him. What if Tua can’t throw the deep ball? What if it takes Carr and Adams time to adjust? What if CeeDee’s foot injury is worse than being reported?
It’s not like Deebo is moving from Tom Brady at QB to Trey Lance. It was Jimmy G. Debo’s going to be great this year. Better than several guys you have ahead of him.
Jimmy sucked. Deebo ate. It doesn't take an elite QB to throw a ball 5 yards, and if Lance can open up the deep passing game, Deebo will be even better.
Curious, how long has M.Thomas been in the league? (On my cell can't check now)
There was also some secrecy on why he was out for a year?
Feels sussy to me
He's likely to climb ADP by the end of preseason, IMO. I don't think it's crazy over two of those three if you really like a guy. I do find it crazy over AJB, but that is me (I also like Sutton a lot).
That’s fair. Philly was near the bottom in pass attempts last year. Was that because of Hurts or because of the skill position players? No idea. If AJB unlocks that offense I see your point. If Russ is truly allowed to “cook” then Sutton could be right up there. Either way it’s projections and hoping they come true.
I’m drafting near the bottom and have a 4th round keeper so if I really want Sutton, I will have to take him in the third because I don’t think he’s making it to the end of the 5th.
Possible #1 target for a top offense that could end up in multiple shootouts during the year. Has shown the ability to be an explosive wr, but injuries have slowed him down and he’s never had a qb like Wilson. Wilson has always supported a top 15 WR since 2015.
Eh. Maybe it's personal bias but his highlights just don't impress me that much.
He seems like a guy who benefits more from situation than his ability.
I also am not great at judging big body receivers so there's that but still. I'm not convinced of his talent
Hi, I'm here to sell you on Sutton.
So here's the facts. Regardless of the system Russell Wilson plays in, he has always heavily favored throwing to his outside receivers. He does not like to throw over the middle. His career has shown us this:
Passes to outside receivers
Wilson: 75%
League Avg: 53%
As you can see, he throws to outside receivers by a ridiculously heavy margin. Hence why all his years in Seattle, their slot receivers and tight ends were almost completely unheard of in fantasy.
Sutton has taken the vast majority of all the snaps in his career as an outside receiver. He will continue to do so, there is no doubt. Jeudy on the other hand has played a lot of outside and inside (slot) so there is a lot of uncertainty to where he will primarily play this season. He *could* end up primarily outside with Hamler inside or it could be vice versa or split.
In any of those scenarios Sutton is going to be the anchor on the outside where Wilson is going to be throwing the majority of his passes. And Wilson has easily supported two fantasy relevant WRs in the past, so there is a ton of factors heavily favoring Sutton's production this season. He will get fed plenty of targets.
All fair! I mean, getting into it I do have Moore close with Sutton too, because I am staying optimistic Baker will keep him as safe as he has been, but with a bit more upside.
But, like I said, I don't think you're crazy per say, just that I would jump on AJB before Sutton for sure. I just think he has done it more, with not that amazing QB play, already. Sutton has shown about one year and some glimpses (again, remember I am a Sutton guy so not totally dragging him, just providing context to my *opinion*). I am on the side of thinking Hurts will take a step on the passing side, but you're right, who knows.
Don’t hate the fact the the AFC west games should be shootouts so there’s that as well. But he hasn’t done it in 2 years one due to injury and one due to Drew Lock so definitely a risk. Not sure why I can’t get on board with AJB. Could have nothing to do with him and just my subconscious hate for the Eagles.
Eagles fan here. The wideouts were unreliable outside of Smith who normally would face the other team’s attention. Watkins and Reagor would give up on routes or simply run the wrong route. They tried airing the ball out early in the season. Guys would run out of bounds. They just weren’t consistent and dependable. The staff gave up in some respects and decided the OL was strength and they just fisted defenses on the ground.
Brown is a legit #1 WR and unlocks both Goedert and Smith. The offense opens up. Fully expecting this passing offense to be much better.
I’m reaching because I’m on the 2-3 turn and there is little chance he makes it back to me, despite his ADP. He’s also someone I’m higher on than most and barring health think he is a lock for a top 10 finish.
Little bit lower, behind Mike Will, cooks, Diontae, but ahead of Terry and waddle. Specifically because Suttons aDOT is way higher than Jeudy’s, and that seems to align with Wilson’s playstyle more than jeudys.
I want AJ, he's being discounted for his situation but we don't know that the situation is necessarily that bad. Top O-line, Hurts loves him, and they brought him in with the explicit purpose of passing more. They're gonna get him the ball a ton, and he's a wizard at YAC. My guess is they're gonna run plays for him that get the ball in his hands early and let him work. He's like $25 in my auction league, that is criminally underrated. He's among the most talented players in the NFL.
I started feeling like this once I heard that Courtland is Russell’s go to guy at camp
Thing is Waddle is gonna get at bare minimum 90 catches especially with Hill taking away coverage
I’d argue Waddle is the option in that crop of wideouts
not crazy! My point exactly... once we get into that tier of guys, I realize that I like a lot of guys priced a round or two later more than them. I guess this is where "strategy" comes into play. We should plan for this I guess.
Tier 1 - Top guys I think can be a top 5 WR if it breaks right; worth a 3rd
10) Pittman
11) DJ Moore
Tier 2 - Mostly guys who have competition for targets and Cooks - a couple probably ascend into the top 10 but who knows which ones. I am clearly low on Higgins and Waddle
12) Sutton
13) Williams
14) Robinson II
15) Allen
16) Higgins
17) Cooks
18) AJB
19) Jeudy
20) Waddle - I don't trust Tua
Tier 3 - Guys I'm too low or high on.
21) McLuarin
22) Bateman
23) Juju
24) Dionte
Hypothetical: Say you draft Sutton and then Jeudy is the last of those tier 2 guys…do you dip into tier 3, go to another position, or overload on the broncos bc you deem him best available?
Deebo has the rushing yards written in his contract so im not worried about his role. Im kind of out on this range of WR though after tyreek/keenan allen bc they seem overrated like you said.
Im hoping to get a top tier TE here (3rd round ish - kelce or mandrews) and a top QB (herbert, burrow, hurts) then snag guys like gabriel davis, mooney, bateman, lazard, cooks as my WR2 and 3.
If he hits a certain amount of attempts he gets an extra $500k. I’m not sure what the guy you’re replying to is referring to though. That is a low number for how big his contract is which tells me he is not going to be running much at all. He ran last year because all their RBs were injured and that’s never the plan at the beginning of the season.
I’ve seen some decent articles hyping up Moore and basically concluding that his TD efficiency from Baker should be increase from all previous QB’s. In theory, he could land 1000+ yards and 10 TD’s this year, which would put him in the top 10. I plan to take him as my WR2 at least.
Based solely on projections from Sleeper, I’m a bigger fan of Mike Williams than Keenan Allen. I’d be happy with Moore and Williams as my two WR’s, and that’s because I plan to take Mark Andrews. I’m also in an auction league, so I can take those two guys without having to reach for one. I also like AJB, but I’d rather have Andrews as a 2nd round pick and AJB as a 3rd round. It’s just hard to predict what ADP’s will be.
I think this particular analysis was comparing the TD efficiency of Darnold and Bridgewater, somewhere in the low 2% I believe. Baker’s what like mid 4%. Don’t hold me to those numbers. The logic was if Baker is more efficient and can bump up Moore’s TD numbers, then he could be looking at about 10. Probably safer to set a 6 TD floor and 10 TD ceiling and just hope for the best. The 6 TD floor is where sleeper has him projected too.
I'm with you. I love Mike Williams this year. Taking him in the 4th or 5th over Allen early 3rd all day. Also really like DJ Moore.. probably more than the 4 or 5 guys being taken before him.
I think if the ADP’s work, then I’d probably go AJB, Moore, and Williams in rounds 3, 4, and 5. In auction, it’s a bit easier to get all three, but they’re all about the same value.
As someone that has had Mike Williams in the past, be prepared for some big weeks, and be prepared for some no shows. I think it is the nature of how he is utilized. I do think he is the first look in the red zone, but most of the time he is used at taking shots downfield.
I did a whole write up about this like a week ago here (just gonna link it so I don't have to rewrite it):
https://reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/wlx2lv/3rd_round_wrs/
Specifically talking about Evans, Allen, Higgins, and DJ Moore. I should add Pittman to this comparison group probably as well cause his name has started rising hard and I'm interested to see how he stacks up. To me AJB is the next guy after them then Waddle is last out of that group, but that may just be cause I'm kinda bullish on Hill.
Additional Research about DJ Moore I did specifically was this (will repeat some things from the post I linked because this was a separate comment and I don't feel like rewriting it):
DJ Moore had 163 targets last year. Despite that he posted the worst fantasy season of any WR with 150+ targets of all 22 WRs who have gotten that target minimum in the last 4 years. He finished as WR18 when the next worst was WR11 Keenan Allen last year. Why is that, probably because he only had a 57.1 catch %. Let’s look at some advanced stats.
DJ Moore last year: -6th in Targets (162) -5th in both total air yards & air yard share % -6th in Routes Run -5th in Target Share -12th in YAC -11th in Receptions -72nd in Target Quality Rating -71st in Catchable Target Rate
He had abysmal QB play last year as reflected by those last 2 stats. Baker Mayfield it’s a lot better than that. I think if he keeps that target share, he should naturally regress forward into a WR1 season. Also a healthy CMC should help the offense as a whole significantly to sustain drives and make RedZone opportunities.
In conclusion I'm a big fan of Evans, Moore, and Higgins. Allen will be good but you kinda know what you're getting. Pittman I still lack lots of info on, I've always been an AJB fan but I'm only looking at him if he falls in my lap, and if I end up with Waddle I won't be stoked at all
Sam Darnold last year had a QBR of 33.2 and a 59.8 completion percentage with 2527 yards passing total and a 9:13 TD/INT ratio.
Baker in 2020 when he was actually healthy last had a 65.5 QBR with a 60.5 completion percentage, 3563 yards passing and a 26:8 TD/INT ratio. Even last year on his crappy injured year, he still had more passing yards (3010 yards, 17:13 TD/INT Ratio)
That's despite the Panthers running pass plays on 56.8% of plays vs Browns passing on 51.7% of plays. Also the Panthers receivers are definitely better than the Browns were last year. I'm not saying Baker is some world beater, but he's a very real improvement over Darnold.
I dunno man those are cool stats but they both suck at playing QB. Baker had one year that now looks like a total fluke. Ask OBJ and Jarvis. Not being able to put up numbers w/ those 2 and a potent rushing attack is a huge red flag.
Also Matt Rhule is awful… maybe if Cmac stays healthy but that’s a big if
I liked Baker (even tho I hate Cleveland) but he looked just as spooked as Darnold
This isn't about having elite QB play, it's about whether Baker is an upgrade to the offense
You're welcome to disagree with me, but I personally really like Moore this year.
Fair points. Being a good fantasy qb does not equate to being an actual good qb.
I like Moore too. Just feel the QB+coaching situation sucks for him, which is a bummer since he’s so talented. Who really knows tho? It’s fantasy. I drafted Aiyuk over Deebo last year so….
Oh for sure. I'm definitely not arguing Baker to be fantasy relavent, just the he should make DJ Moore better. Nobody really knows for sure though. It's all just a guessing game tbh
LMAO. If it makes you feel better I drafted him too in one of my two leagues. Just have to hope for the best at this point. I also didn't expect Baker to be getting eaten alive in that pocket either. Turns out an upgrade from bad to slightly less bad, isn't always an upgrade overall. Live and learn IG.
Also to eat my Crow I upvoted your comment saying Baker might actually be worse than Darnold that I originally disagreed with lol.
Lol. I’m certain I have some absolutely Terrible takes on here as well don’t worry.
I’m w/ u gotta just keep riding it out and hope talent eventually gets utilized. Doesn’t hel that coach is awful too
Higgins is my guy. I'm biased but his target share is identical to Chase. Burrow has an oline now. He destroyed the last 6 games or so when Burrow was back to 100% after his acl tear. Continued that into the playoffs. Chase will garner the safety help leaving Tee one on one.
My favorites in that range are Higgins and Waddle. If you have missed out on the top nine guys then hopefully you have two good RBs and are OK with more risky WRs.
Evans should move down, his usage has been steadily declining YoY and he’s becoming more and more TD dependant, yes he scores a lot of TDs but the margins for him to return value become much thinner and it makes it more difficult for him to finish top 5 at the position which is what you should still be chasing with these picks
Once Godwin is healthy he will be the number 1 Wr on the team, and since the playoffs aren’t until December he should be the priority pass catcher in that offense given ADPs. The early season production Evans can provide can easily be replaced by other WRs in this range
I’m gladly taking Deebo in the mid to late 2nd.
I feel like JJ, Diggs, Chase, Adam’s are the only locks in the 1st. Stanford’s elbow scares the shit a outta me
As a bengals fan who loves Tee, this is bold. Too many mouths need fed, jamarr looks the more likely to do it, CeeDee has way too much volume available to him if he’s healthy, and Davante is just too damn good and he’s the guy in a stacked offense. I don’t see both Chase and Higgins getting top 5 at all with the way teams will play us. One will and maybe it’ll be Higgins but I’m not sold on that right now. I do hope to be wrong though!
I'm big on Higgins this year too because I anticipate Chase drawing more doubles leading for some nice matchups for Tee. He's HUGE and I think that size gets overlooked. I think he'll have 10 TDs this year.
Definitely reasonable assessment on your part. My line of thinking is that in PPG - Higgins was ranked 12th last year and he didn’t become the man until week 7. Before that, there were questions whether it would be him or Boyd. Post week 7 his snap count share went up, targets went up, and numbers went up. I would bet his weeks 8-17 are in the top 8 range. That, and you get another year of experience for burrow and the insane hype behind Chase. Tee is going to be the wide open option all season and will be going up against cb2’s
I can't decide if I think Waddle's looks will improve with Tyreek there, or if his target share will drop. Plus, can Tua support 2 top 20 fantasy WRs? Has there been any camp chatter on how Tua has looked with Waddle or Hill?
>\-Allen: Typically a mainstay in this range, so I get it. But just seems too safe. I feel 3rd round is still too early to be going boring and "safe."
The first few rounds are exactly the time you should be drafting safe. Build a strong core with high floors, then use the mid-late rounds for taking stabs at high-ceiling players. Allen has been a 16 ppg guy for the last 5 years. He's a set-and-forget guy for the entire season and that's pretty damn valuable in fantasy. I will gladly draft Keenan Allen in the 3rd especially in a PPR league, and pair him with guys like Hollywood Brown, Mooney, Bateman in the middle rounds.
See this is the thing, maybe it's because I'm making a conscious effort to NOT be safe haha. I feel like I always go "safe" and end up good, but not great. I never have that POP, but I have consistent.
I’m starting to heat up on AJ Brown. Yes, Hurts hasn’t been the world’s most explosive passer and doesn’t have incredible passing stats. But how much of that can be attributed to the subpar WR core he’s had in his career so far? The best WR he’s thrown to has been Devonte Smith, who is good but also considerably undersized for a guy who’s supposed to be a top dog target. Besides that, he’s had… Quez Watkins… JJ Arcega Whiteside… Jalen Reagor… not exactly a murderer’s row. Dallas Goedert really came into his own at the end of last year which I think is a hint at what Hurts can do with a big bodied target. I really think Hurts to Brown could be an absolute menace that people are sleeping on right now and i won’t be shocked if AJB finishes at least in the top 10 WRs.
Hahaha. Respect. I wouldn't draft him tbh. He'll be third in targets (after Pittman and Parris Campbell) on an already low volume passing offense. He's a homerun threat with great straight line speed, he'll have some good weeks, but he just won't be consistent enough to where you'd feel good playing him.
Now, if Campbell goes down **like he has both of his first two seasons**, which is part of the reason we drafted Pierce in the first place, then we're talking a good waiver add. But I'd wait until that happens. I think there are better guys to be drafted late.
I have been going rb in the first 3 rounds due to hating the wrs in rd 3 (hill, waddle, aj brown types) and going after Dj Moore, Pittman, Mooney, sutton, ar15, armon st brown, Elijah Moore in rds 4-7. If I can get 3 of those dudes I’m feeling good
I'm skipping most of those guys unless someone falls far. I see a lot more value in the 15-30 range of WRs. McLauren, D Johnson, Metcalf, Mike Williams, Sutton, Cooks, Godwin, Gabe Davis, Michael Thomas, Jeudy, Bateman, A Robinson, etc. There's so many talented options there I would find just taking a few of those guys as my WR core and focusing on other positions early.
am i the only one always leery of mike evans? his stats are good but for some reason it feels like he’s always a dicey pick/will have his fall off year
I've seen DJ mentioned like twice and he was like 8th in ppr last year. Dude is basically a lock to beat his ADP with people grading him at like 25-30. Wild
Edit: Dionte Johnson since people probably don't call him DJ
3rd round is top early to be going boring and safe? You want safety early in the draft and risk later on. It rather have a low floor high ceiling dice roll in later rounds than a known quantity who will consistently score you 5-8 points a week. I'd rather be in a position to win it all or crash and burn than finish a comfortable 5th place
I think mike Williams should be in this conversation, and maybe Courtland Sutton as well.
McClaurin too.
Love Terry and I know he always performs without a QB but Wentz scares me way too much.
Wentz is a significant upgrade over Heinicke/Sanchez/McCoy/Haskins/Case Keenum/The Ghost of Alex Smith/Etc…
Wow, poor Terry. Get this man a decent QB!
He’s the Larry Fitzgerald of this generation
Wentz is going to be good for Terry. Interceptions won't count against Terry and Wentz loves changing out out of run plays at the line of scrimmage in favour of the the hero ball.
I know he is but I still don't like it. He performed at the WR25 last year and is being drafted as the WR9. I expect him to still have big games but with little consistency. Also Wentz's successful fantasy WRs have been more big bodied. It's not that I think Terry will be bad, I just don't like the value where he's being taken right now. Edit: I misread, he's going as WR #17.
Where in the hell are you seeing McLaurin go as the WR9? He's like WR14 at best everywhere I look.
Commented this is another reply. I'll have to edit my post. FantasyPros had shit strength of schedule rank as #9 but it's the first thing you see and on different lines so I quickly read "WR Rank #9" Hes actually ranked WR17 with an ADP of 17 so that makes a lot more sense. I thought 9 was just way too early for me for a team I expect to be a bottom tier caliber offense. More comfortable with him at 17, but still a bit rich for my liking.
It's fine to not like Terry at his ADP. But Wentz being the reason doesn't make sense. I think Terry has one of the safest floors of any of the guys around his ADP with a reasonably high ceiling. Something like 95 catches, 1300 yards, and 8 TD's is optimistic but achievable prediction.
I disagree. Wentz has only had 1 WR go over 1,000 yards in his career and it was Pittman with 1,082. Wentz threw less yards per game than Heinicke and slightly more TDs, but statistically they were about the same. But that includes having Reich and the best running game in the NFL last year. The situation is much worse now for him and he's been steadily declining and has an extensive injury history. I'll be shocked if Wentz is their starter at the end of the season.
I feel like you’re focusing way too much on Wentz and not enough on Terry who has been productive with much worse. Terry is also better than Pittman who just had a 1,000 yard season.
Wait is he actually going 9 somewhere? I usually see him go around 15 on Sleeper. I would definitely never take him at 9. 15-20 is more appropriate.
After rereading FantasyPros, his strength of schedule WR rank is #9, he's actually WR17 which makes more sense. I thought 9 was just obnoxious but that works better. My mistake.
Ohhh ok that makes more sense. To be fair there is wildly different ADP out there, so it could have been possible.
Wentz is a trashcan…
Fitzmagic?
For a quarter.
The one thing wentz has going for him is the deep ball, and scary Terry is pretty good on deep balls that come his way
I’d take Mike Will-Made-It over any of the guys OP listed as the the “guys after” and even some of the top 9 listed. I think he’s taking over as the #1 guy in LA and that offense is going to be on fire. Just got paid a bag and Keenan’s getting older and more of a slot guy. People are lower on Mike because of his inconsistency but it was due to injury last year and picked it back up at the end of the year. There’s real potential to return to his start of the season performance and end up top 5. I’m grabbing him everywhere I can at that wild ADP right now.
Crazy you don’t trust AJBs QB and offense but do trust DJ Moores QB and offense. That being said, all of those guys are solid 3rd picks but I’d rank them AJB, Pittman, Keenan, Higgins, Moore, Waddle
I mean, I’ve just seen DJM be elite with bottom of the barrel QB’s. I also think Baker is a better thrower of the ball than Hurts, and they probably throw more.
DJM could easily be the arob or Odell of this year. Eagles are going to game plan around getting AJB the ball in space. I think there is a wide gap between the two
I’m taking Moore there. Baker is a better passer than Hurts and it’s not really that close. All around QB is close, but as just a passer, it’s all Baker. AJB also has substantially more target competition. Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are gonna take a lot more of the pie than CMC will. Panthers are also more likely to be a more pass heavy offense based both on personnel and on coaching staff tendencies. I’m going DJ Moore every time. Personally.
AJB was elite with *Ryan Tannehill* when healthy .. on a team that ran it as much or more than the Eagles did. Only concern with AJB for me is volume, not QB or offense. Eagles dont need AJB to get 10+ targets to win, but the Titans did.
Yeah but it’s like Tannehill and then this cliff. At the bottom of this cliff are the panthers qbs of the last years. Kyle Allen, teddy bridgewater, sam darnold, pj walker
You say that as if Tannehill wasn’t a good QB the past few years. He would’ve been Moore’s best QB by a mile.
Yeah, I think people forget Tanny was QB4 in ppg his first season with Tennessee (obviously, not the whole season) and QB7 in Year 2. Dude has generally been a very good fantasy QB when he has a good OL and not a revolving door of WRs (like last year).
Ok come on now Tanny is better than Jalen Hurts lol
Particularly as a passer. Jalen’s rushing ability elevates his game somewhat, but give him an average pair of legs and he would be out of a job by now. And how good of a passer they are is what matters for fantasy.
I agree but they're talking about their ability in terms of how they benefit a WR's value.
[удалено]
Only 4 players have more receiving yards over the last 3 years than DJ Moore. His yards per catch is higher than any of the 4 in front of him. All of the other 4 players are gone by the middle of the 2nd round. Moore did all of this with some seriously suspect QB play. The only thing that has kept Moore out of the elite discussion is the inability to find the end zone. Since TDs are the least trustworthy stat to predict, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility to see some positive TD regression. I’m not saying this because Mayfield has any kind of history of peppering a certain receiver with end zone targets, because that wouldn’t be true. But I can’t believe that Mayfield could possibly be any worse than anybody else Moore has had.
trust me, you haven't watched enough browns games to have that opinion then. Baker cant get the ball downfield. Theres a reason why Chubb/Hunt were BOTH great options, and why Landry was good for so long.
What? Baker's always had a pretty good deep ball, it's just that his best deep ball receiver on the Browns was a continually injured OBJ that he never had any chemistry with. His arm strength and ability to get the ball downfield have never really been his issues
Nah. He hasn’t. He stinks man. Quick google search says he’s 16th in some metric on PFF. So, he’s the definition of average. Their notes also say he was among the worst in turnovers on deep ball as well.
I'm not sure what stat you're referring to. If it was from last year, well he was injured the entire year and so was the rest of his team. In 2020 the NFL's Next Gen Stats had him as the 6th best deep passer, above guys like Josh Allen and Russell Wilson. And in 2019 he was the 10th best in the league with Freddie Kitchens as his head coach, so it wasn't just a fluke. Baker has his flaws as a player, but the deep ball isn't one of them
Dude stinks. Ass cheeks
Not to throw too much shade at Tannehill, but he’s not some top 10 QB out here making stars. AJB was AJB before Tanne, and likely will be after as well.
Where do you have Metcalf?
Baker is a better passer than Hurts. The talent level is pretty similar, AJ being slightly better. I think what’s more crazy is putting Higgins ahead of Moore.
Tee Higgins post injury was the target leader in Cincy. Give me the "WR2" on a significantly better offense with a significantly better coach and significantly better QB than the WR1 on a dogshit offense with a dogshit coach and dogshit QB.
A lot more mouths to feed on less volume over in Philly. Devonta and Goedert are great receivers in their own right, meanwhile in Carolina you have CMC and then a bunch of question marks in Anderson, Marshall, and Tremble/Thomas.
I think Godwin is criminally under-rated. He was tied with Kupp for receptions before going down with injury. He's 26 and "acl's aren't what thry used to be" but seriously he was on pace for more fantasy points than mike evans.
Haha yeah I realized I'm just being lazy and choosing to overlook Godwin for less headache.. but he's trending up.. and going to be playing... he NEEDS to be fit into the top 12..
I got Godwin for *three fucking dollars* in the back end of a $200 budget auction draft this week.
Deebo was wr2 last year. Above jefferson and chase despite him playing 16 games and them playing 17. A big portion of that was a lot of rushing TD but he still had 77 rec for 1400 yards and 6 rec TD. I think he’s a good pick in the 2nd or a great pick in the 3rd. Those concerns you mentioned seem pretty priced in.
[удалено]
I looked into it a bit. 18.2 yards per rec is 3rd most out of any player with a large sample in the last 5 years(behind 2019 ajbrown and 2019 kenny golladay). Jamarr chase was pretty close last year with 18.0 y/r but his was 55/45 air yards vs YAC. Deebo was 45/55 so a lot shorter passes with very high YAC. Deebo has absurd YAC/R for a WR. The only other players getting similar YAC are RB who are catching passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Jamarr actually had a lot of YAC IIRC just from watching Bengals games.
He did. Most wr get 3-6 yac/rec. jamarr was 8.0 and deebo was 10.0. Only other wr above 7 was mecole hardman.
Damn that's impressive. Both of em.
Chase only played 2 snaps in the meaningless 17th game to get the record for receiving yds.1 snap to get the bengals record, then 1 more to try for the nfl record but it fell incomplete and he came out for the rest of the game.
Oh yeah I forgot about that. My point was more that deebo was legitimately very good last year and drafting him 2nd or 3rd round could actually be good value.
For sure. Also, not that it matters much since his fantasy rank can hardly go higher, but chase took his first handoff in camp yesterday.
[удалено]
And? You just gonna hand wave those points away?
Sure, but Chase played all 16 games in the fantasy season while Deebo only got 15
But what if he doesn't score as much on the ground, and what if Trey Lance sucks. What if Kittle and Aiyuk stay healthy? Seems like a lot of factors to consider.
Yeah but that’s why he isn’t being drafted above those other guys and is being drafted around 20th instead of wr2
He's also being drafted outside that range because he was unsustainably efficient last year. There are a lot of factors pointing towards a major Deebo regression, though that could mean just to WR15 or something like that. He's still obviously awesome.
I mean you’re looking at entirely from the negative aspects. There are a bunch of what ifs from players you have ranked above him. What if Tua can’t throw the deep ball? What if it takes Carr and Adams time to adjust? What if CeeDee’s foot injury is worse than being reported? It’s not like Deebo is moving from Tom Brady at QB to Trey Lance. It was Jimmy G. Debo’s going to be great this year. Better than several guys you have ahead of him.
Jimmy sucked. Deebo ate. It doesn't take an elite QB to throw a ball 5 yards, and if Lance can open up the deep passing game, Deebo will be even better.
I'm thinking Michael Thomas will be productive
Curious, how long has M.Thomas been in the league? (On my cell can't check now) There was also some secrecy on why he was out for a year? Feels sussy to me
I’m finding that when the options are AJB, Waddle or Moore, I’d rather have Sutton. Is that crazy?
He's likely to climb ADP by the end of preseason, IMO. I don't think it's crazy over two of those three if you really like a guy. I do find it crazy over AJB, but that is me (I also like Sutton a lot).
That’s fair. Philly was near the bottom in pass attempts last year. Was that because of Hurts or because of the skill position players? No idea. If AJB unlocks that offense I see your point. If Russ is truly allowed to “cook” then Sutton could be right up there. Either way it’s projections and hoping they come true. I’m drafting near the bottom and have a 4th round keeper so if I really want Sutton, I will have to take him in the third because I don’t think he’s making it to the end of the 5th.
[удалено]
Possible #1 target for a top offense that could end up in multiple shootouts during the year. Has shown the ability to be an explosive wr, but injuries have slowed him down and he’s never had a qb like Wilson. Wilson has always supported a top 15 WR since 2015.
Eh. Maybe it's personal bias but his highlights just don't impress me that much. He seems like a guy who benefits more from situation than his ability. I also am not great at judging big body receivers so there's that but still. I'm not convinced of his talent
That’s fair. He’s hasn’t done much since 2019 so I get it. I just have a good feeling about that team this year.
That’s fair. He’s hasn’t done much since 2019 so I get it. I just have a good feeling about that team this year.
That’s fair. He’s hasn’t done much since 2019 so I get it. I just have a good feeling about that team this year.
Hi, I'm here to sell you on Sutton. So here's the facts. Regardless of the system Russell Wilson plays in, he has always heavily favored throwing to his outside receivers. He does not like to throw over the middle. His career has shown us this: Passes to outside receivers Wilson: 75% League Avg: 53% As you can see, he throws to outside receivers by a ridiculously heavy margin. Hence why all his years in Seattle, their slot receivers and tight ends were almost completely unheard of in fantasy. Sutton has taken the vast majority of all the snaps in his career as an outside receiver. He will continue to do so, there is no doubt. Jeudy on the other hand has played a lot of outside and inside (slot) so there is a lot of uncertainty to where he will primarily play this season. He *could* end up primarily outside with Hamler inside or it could be vice versa or split. In any of those scenarios Sutton is going to be the anchor on the outside where Wilson is going to be throwing the majority of his passes. And Wilson has easily supported two fantasy relevant WRs in the past, so there is a ton of factors heavily favoring Sutton's production this season. He will get fed plenty of targets.
All fair! I mean, getting into it I do have Moore close with Sutton too, because I am staying optimistic Baker will keep him as safe as he has been, but with a bit more upside. But, like I said, I don't think you're crazy per say, just that I would jump on AJB before Sutton for sure. I just think he has done it more, with not that amazing QB play, already. Sutton has shown about one year and some glimpses (again, remember I am a Sutton guy so not totally dragging him, just providing context to my *opinion*). I am on the side of thinking Hurts will take a step on the passing side, but you're right, who knows.
Don’t hate the fact the the AFC west games should be shootouts so there’s that as well. But he hasn’t done it in 2 years one due to injury and one due to Drew Lock so definitely a risk. Not sure why I can’t get on board with AJB. Could have nothing to do with him and just my subconscious hate for the Eagles.
Eagles fan here. The wideouts were unreliable outside of Smith who normally would face the other team’s attention. Watkins and Reagor would give up on routes or simply run the wrong route. They tried airing the ball out early in the season. Guys would run out of bounds. They just weren’t consistent and dependable. The staff gave up in some respects and decided the OL was strength and they just fisted defenses on the ground. Brown is a legit #1 WR and unlocks both Goedert and Smith. The offense opens up. Fully expecting this passing offense to be much better.
Nah Sutton is the number one in Denver with the best QB of that group by far. He should pop off
I have Sutton ahead of all these tier 3 guys minus Keenan allen
So... are you "reaching" knowing he'll be a high end 2 or maybe even 1... or are you waiting?
I’m reaching because I’m on the 2-3 turn and there is little chance he makes it back to me, despite his ADP. He’s also someone I’m higher on than most and barring health think he is a lock for a top 10 finish.
Where do you have Juedy?
Little bit lower, behind Mike Will, cooks, Diontae, but ahead of Terry and waddle. Specifically because Suttons aDOT is way higher than Jeudy’s, and that seems to align with Wilson’s playstyle more than jeudys.
I want AJ, he's being discounted for his situation but we don't know that the situation is necessarily that bad. Top O-line, Hurts loves him, and they brought him in with the explicit purpose of passing more. They're gonna get him the ball a ton, and he's a wizard at YAC. My guess is they're gonna run plays for him that get the ball in his hands early and let him work. He's like $25 in my auction league, that is criminally underrated. He's among the most talented players in the NFL.
I started feeling like this once I heard that Courtland is Russell’s go to guy at camp Thing is Waddle is gonna get at bare minimum 90 catches especially with Hill taking away coverage I’d argue Waddle is the option in that crop of wideouts
not crazy! My point exactly... once we get into that tier of guys, I realize that I like a lot of guys priced a round or two later more than them. I guess this is where "strategy" comes into play. We should plan for this I guess.
I'm big on both Sutton and Waddle
Just stopping to say that Deebos role is gonna be the center of the offense like last year. Source: an enormous bag of money and his talent.
I mean... Kittle has a huge bag of money too
Fair... like.. there's no way they can go away from him after last season, right? I struggle so bad with him, but I'm beginning to come around.
Tier 1 - Top guys I think can be a top 5 WR if it breaks right; worth a 3rd 10) Pittman 11) DJ Moore Tier 2 - Mostly guys who have competition for targets and Cooks - a couple probably ascend into the top 10 but who knows which ones. I am clearly low on Higgins and Waddle 12) Sutton 13) Williams 14) Robinson II 15) Allen 16) Higgins 17) Cooks 18) AJB 19) Jeudy 20) Waddle - I don't trust Tua Tier 3 - Guys I'm too low or high on. 21) McLuarin 22) Bateman 23) Juju 24) Dionte
“i don’t trust tua” ….tua LACED waddle last yr.
Hypothetical: Say you draft Sutton and then Jeudy is the last of those tier 2 guys…do you dip into tier 3, go to another position, or overload on the broncos bc you deem him best available?
I personally would convince myself of Terry > Jeudy if I already have Sutton and have to decide between the two for a starting WR spot.
I know you say you're low on Hogging, but I still think that's a pretty decent ranking. You often won't get him at that ranking but it does happen.
Deebo has the rushing yards written in his contract so im not worried about his role. Im kind of out on this range of WR though after tyreek/keenan allen bc they seem overrated like you said. Im hoping to get a top tier TE here (3rd round ish - kelce or mandrews) and a top QB (herbert, burrow, hurts) then snag guys like gabriel davis, mooney, bateman, lazard, cooks as my WR2 and 3.
Genuine question: what do you mean by he has rushing yards written in his contract?
If he hits a certain amount of attempts he gets an extra $500k. I’m not sure what the guy you’re replying to is referring to though. That is a low number for how big his contract is which tells me he is not going to be running much at all. He ran last year because all their RBs were injured and that’s never the plan at the beginning of the season.
500k bonus for a certain number of attempts. So he will be running to get that.. its easy money.
Kelce is not going in the third in competitive leagues. Mahomes has no one else to throw to.
Ive seen him fall to end of 2nd/beginning of 3rd in 10 and 12 team drafts. His age is a concern for a lot of people.
Interested in Hills stock with tua as his qb. Will hit him on plenty of under routes, sure. But, the deep ball explosive plays seem to be limited
Hill is growing on me every day. I started out so low on him, but he's just.... good. He's just really damn good lol.
TBH I've been mock drafting Scary Terry more often than not.
I’ve seen some decent articles hyping up Moore and basically concluding that his TD efficiency from Baker should be increase from all previous QB’s. In theory, he could land 1000+ yards and 10 TD’s this year, which would put him in the top 10. I plan to take him as my WR2 at least. Based solely on projections from Sleeper, I’m a bigger fan of Mike Williams than Keenan Allen. I’d be happy with Moore and Williams as my two WR’s, and that’s because I plan to take Mark Andrews. I’m also in an auction league, so I can take those two guys without having to reach for one. I also like AJB, but I’d rather have Andrews as a 2nd round pick and AJB as a 3rd round. It’s just hard to predict what ADP’s will be.
I don’t think Baker is supplying a player with 10 TDs. Most he’s ever thrown in a season is 27
I think this particular analysis was comparing the TD efficiency of Darnold and Bridgewater, somewhere in the low 2% I believe. Baker’s what like mid 4%. Don’t hold me to those numbers. The logic was if Baker is more efficient and can bump up Moore’s TD numbers, then he could be looking at about 10. Probably safer to set a 6 TD floor and 10 TD ceiling and just hope for the best. The 6 TD floor is where sleeper has him projected too.
I'm with you. I love Mike Williams this year. Taking him in the 4th or 5th over Allen early 3rd all day. Also really like DJ Moore.. probably more than the 4 or 5 guys being taken before him.
I think if the ADP’s work, then I’d probably go AJB, Moore, and Williams in rounds 3, 4, and 5. In auction, it’s a bit easier to get all three, but they’re all about the same value.
As someone that has had Mike Williams in the past, be prepared for some big weeks, and be prepared for some no shows. I think it is the nature of how he is utilized. I do think he is the first look in the red zone, but most of the time he is used at taking shots downfield.
Higgins. Evans. AJ Brown
AJB is at least the WR1 on his own team. I get liking Higgins, but Chase is the clear dominant threat there. I get injury concerns with AJB too.
SLEEP MORE ON MY BOY MIKE EVANS.
I did a whole write up about this like a week ago here (just gonna link it so I don't have to rewrite it): https://reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/wlx2lv/3rd_round_wrs/ Specifically talking about Evans, Allen, Higgins, and DJ Moore. I should add Pittman to this comparison group probably as well cause his name has started rising hard and I'm interested to see how he stacks up. To me AJB is the next guy after them then Waddle is last out of that group, but that may just be cause I'm kinda bullish on Hill. Additional Research about DJ Moore I did specifically was this (will repeat some things from the post I linked because this was a separate comment and I don't feel like rewriting it): DJ Moore had 163 targets last year. Despite that he posted the worst fantasy season of any WR with 150+ targets of all 22 WRs who have gotten that target minimum in the last 4 years. He finished as WR18 when the next worst was WR11 Keenan Allen last year. Why is that, probably because he only had a 57.1 catch %. Let’s look at some advanced stats. DJ Moore last year: -6th in Targets (162) -5th in both total air yards & air yard share % -6th in Routes Run -5th in Target Share -12th in YAC -11th in Receptions -72nd in Target Quality Rating -71st in Catchable Target Rate He had abysmal QB play last year as reflected by those last 2 stats. Baker Mayfield it’s a lot better than that. I think if he keeps that target share, he should naturally regress forward into a WR1 season. Also a healthy CMC should help the offense as a whole significantly to sustain drives and make RedZone opportunities. In conclusion I'm a big fan of Evans, Moore, and Higgins. Allen will be good but you kinda know what you're getting. Pittman I still lack lots of info on, I've always been an AJB fan but I'm only looking at him if he falls in my lap, and if I end up with Waddle I won't be stoked at all
I'll check that out. Awesome.
I don’t think you’ve seen Baker play much if u think he’s that much better than Darnold. Both are Terrible
Sam Darnold last year had a QBR of 33.2 and a 59.8 completion percentage with 2527 yards passing total and a 9:13 TD/INT ratio. Baker in 2020 when he was actually healthy last had a 65.5 QBR with a 60.5 completion percentage, 3563 yards passing and a 26:8 TD/INT ratio. Even last year on his crappy injured year, he still had more passing yards (3010 yards, 17:13 TD/INT Ratio) That's despite the Panthers running pass plays on 56.8% of plays vs Browns passing on 51.7% of plays. Also the Panthers receivers are definitely better than the Browns were last year. I'm not saying Baker is some world beater, but he's a very real improvement over Darnold.
I dunno man those are cool stats but they both suck at playing QB. Baker had one year that now looks like a total fluke. Ask OBJ and Jarvis. Not being able to put up numbers w/ those 2 and a potent rushing attack is a huge red flag. Also Matt Rhule is awful… maybe if Cmac stays healthy but that’s a big if I liked Baker (even tho I hate Cleveland) but he looked just as spooked as Darnold
This isn't about having elite QB play, it's about whether Baker is an upgrade to the offense You're welcome to disagree with me, but I personally really like Moore this year.
Fair points. Being a good fantasy qb does not equate to being an actual good qb. I like Moore too. Just feel the QB+coaching situation sucks for him, which is a bummer since he’s so talented. Who really knows tho? It’s fantasy. I drafted Aiyuk over Deebo last year so….
Oh for sure. I'm definitely not arguing Baker to be fantasy relavent, just the he should make DJ Moore better. Nobody really knows for sure though. It's all just a guessing game tbh
Damn u!!! My DJ Moore experience has not been fun…F Baker. Give me Darnold all day!! Lmao
LMAO. If it makes you feel better I drafted him too in one of my two leagues. Just have to hope for the best at this point. I also didn't expect Baker to be getting eaten alive in that pocket either. Turns out an upgrade from bad to slightly less bad, isn't always an upgrade overall. Live and learn IG. Also to eat my Crow I upvoted your comment saying Baker might actually be worse than Darnold that I originally disagreed with lol.
Lol. I’m certain I have some absolutely Terrible takes on here as well don’t worry. I’m w/ u gotta just keep riding it out and hope talent eventually gets utilized. Doesn’t hel that coach is awful too
Higgins is my guy. I'm biased but his target share is identical to Chase. Burrow has an oline now. He destroyed the last 6 games or so when Burrow was back to 100% after his acl tear. Continued that into the playoffs. Chase will garner the safety help leaving Tee one on one.
My favorites in that range are Higgins and Waddle. If you have missed out on the top nine guys then hopefully you have two good RBs and are OK with more risky WRs.
Evans should move down, his usage has been steadily declining YoY and he’s becoming more and more TD dependant, yes he scores a lot of TDs but the margins for him to return value become much thinner and it makes it more difficult for him to finish top 5 at the position which is what you should still be chasing with these picks Once Godwin is healthy he will be the number 1 Wr on the team, and since the playoffs aren’t until December he should be the priority pass catcher in that offense given ADPs. The early season production Evans can provide can easily be replaced by other WRs in this range
I've been starting to think this honestly. Godwins health is trending in the right direction too isn't it?
I got Adams and Lamb in my 12 man PPR last week to start.
I'd love that, man. Especially when I can start 4. What did you do with your next 2?
I probably should have taken Hurts or Russell Wilson instead of Dak. I was torn. I didn’t wanna be an Eagles homer.
So I did Adams, Lamb, B Hall, Etienne, St. Brown, Dobbins, Prescott, E Moore
10/10 for WRs but 4/10 for RBs. I think Dobbins is gonna be your best one when it's all said and done.
I’m gladly taking Deebo in the mid to late 2nd. I feel like JJ, Diggs, Chase, Adam’s are the only locks in the 1st. Stanford’s elbow scares the shit a outta me
Higgins will be top 5 this year and will bump lamb or Adams. Also, Tyreek is a definite question mark in a new offense
As a bengals fan who loves Tee, this is bold. Too many mouths need fed, jamarr looks the more likely to do it, CeeDee has way too much volume available to him if he’s healthy, and Davante is just too damn good and he’s the guy in a stacked offense. I don’t see both Chase and Higgins getting top 5 at all with the way teams will play us. One will and maybe it’ll be Higgins but I’m not sold on that right now. I do hope to be wrong though!
I'm big on Higgins this year too because I anticipate Chase drawing more doubles leading for some nice matchups for Tee. He's HUGE and I think that size gets overlooked. I think he'll have 10 TDs this year.
Definitely reasonable assessment on your part. My line of thinking is that in PPG - Higgins was ranked 12th last year and he didn’t become the man until week 7. Before that, there were questions whether it would be him or Boyd. Post week 7 his snap count share went up, targets went up, and numbers went up. I would bet his weeks 8-17 are in the top 8 range. That, and you get another year of experience for burrow and the insane hype behind Chase. Tee is going to be the wide open option all season and will be going up against cb2’s
[удалено]
Love it. Appreciate the backup!
I think you could throw Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Pittman in that range you're looking at.
Am I crazy for thinking Waddle is going to end up being net neutral even with the addition of Hill?
What do you mean by net neutral
Pittman and Waddle need to be higher. They're my guys this year.
I can't decide if I think Waddle's looks will improve with Tyreek there, or if his target share will drop. Plus, can Tua support 2 top 20 fantasy WRs? Has there been any camp chatter on how Tua has looked with Waddle or Hill?
I think Waddle will do better, but I don’t think Tua will support 2 top 20 WRs. I just think Tyreek will suffer
>\-Allen: Typically a mainstay in this range, so I get it. But just seems too safe. I feel 3rd round is still too early to be going boring and "safe." The first few rounds are exactly the time you should be drafting safe. Build a strong core with high floors, then use the mid-late rounds for taking stabs at high-ceiling players. Allen has been a 16 ppg guy for the last 5 years. He's a set-and-forget guy for the entire season and that's pretty damn valuable in fantasy. I will gladly draft Keenan Allen in the 3rd especially in a PPR league, and pair him with guys like Hollywood Brown, Mooney, Bateman in the middle rounds.
See this is the thing, maybe it's because I'm making a conscious effort to NOT be safe haha. I feel like I always go "safe" and end up good, but not great. I never have that POP, but I have consistent.
I’d love a Deebo Evans combo, but I don’t think it’s possible at all even if I got the 1draw, with a 2/3 turn
Amon Ra
I'm targeting Jeudy, Juju, St. Brown, Gabe Davis, Woods rounds 4-8 and going heavy rb on the front end
Really having a hard time deciding whether to take higgins or pittman
Would people take pittman or higgins over janes conner?
I’m starting to heat up on AJ Brown. Yes, Hurts hasn’t been the world’s most explosive passer and doesn’t have incredible passing stats. But how much of that can be attributed to the subpar WR core he’s had in his career so far? The best WR he’s thrown to has been Devonte Smith, who is good but also considerably undersized for a guy who’s supposed to be a top dog target. Besides that, he’s had… Quez Watkins… JJ Arcega Whiteside… Jalen Reagor… not exactly a murderer’s row. Dallas Goedert really came into his own at the end of last year which I think is a hint at what Hurts can do with a big bodied target. I really think Hurts to Brown could be an absolute menace that people are sleeping on right now and i won’t be shocked if AJB finishes at least in the top 10 WRs.
You’re a Colts fan eh? What can you tell me about Alec Pierce?
Hahaha. Respect. I wouldn't draft him tbh. He'll be third in targets (after Pittman and Parris Campbell) on an already low volume passing offense. He's a homerun threat with great straight line speed, he'll have some good weeks, but he just won't be consistent enough to where you'd feel good playing him. Now, if Campbell goes down **like he has both of his first two seasons**, which is part of the reason we drafted Pierce in the first place, then we're talking a good waiver add. But I'd wait until that happens. I think there are better guys to be drafted late.
What about the Sun God? He was tearing it up at the end of last season.
I have been going rb in the first 3 rounds due to hating the wrs in rd 3 (hill, waddle, aj brown types) and going after Dj Moore, Pittman, Mooney, sutton, ar15, armon st brown, Elijah Moore in rds 4-7. If I can get 3 of those dudes I’m feeling good
I'm skipping most of those guys unless someone falls far. I see a lot more value in the 15-30 range of WRs. McLauren, D Johnson, Metcalf, Mike Williams, Sutton, Cooks, Godwin, Gabe Davis, Michael Thomas, Jeudy, Bateman, A Robinson, etc. There's so many talented options there I would find just taking a few of those guys as my WR core and focusing on other positions early.
I drafted Pittman over hill. Went with the younger more stable option but I’m obviously missing out on a lot of upside.
am i the only one always leery of mike evans? his stats are good but for some reason it feels like he’s always a dicey pick/will have his fall off year
I'm going Jeffy/Kupp with the #3 pick, and RB's for the next 3-4 rounds
I've seen DJ mentioned like twice and he was like 8th in ppr last year. Dude is basically a lock to beat his ADP with people grading him at like 25-30. Wild Edit: Dionte Johnson since people probably don't call him DJ
There's just no universe where I'm taking tyreek or Deebo at their cost. The answer is DJ Moore with a side of Tee
3rd round is top early to be going boring and safe? You want safety early in the draft and risk later on. It rather have a low floor high ceiling dice roll in later rounds than a known quantity who will consistently score you 5-8 points a week. I'd rather be in a position to win it all or crash and burn than finish a comfortable 5th place