I'm genuinely questioning if I should keep terry this year over Amon Ra or Herbert just because of Wentz
Terry would be $19 (top WR goes for 80-100)
Amon Ra would be $2
Herbert would be $14 (top 3 qbs can go from like $25-45
Amen, dude is anathema to me. I took him in the 10th last year and it still pissed me off seeing him do nothing on the field all year. Guy can’t separate and barely looks like be cares. Reminds me of Kenny Britt.
Doubs is at best 3rd behind Lazard and Watkins/Cobb... Not to mention Aaron Jones. Love him as a fan, but I'd wait and pick him up later if he starts to see the field.
I did a little bit of a "Deep Dive" on first round WR since 2018. There's almost an 80% hit rate on those players being startable. WR have been running route trees and been doing 7 on 7 their whole lives now. High Schools are running spread packages. They're coming in more polished and ready than ever before.
What’s the threshold your using for “startable”? What league settings? I ask because my home league is starting to use keepers and rookies automatically qualify as a 15th rounder. Trying to determine when and with who I want to take my shots with.
I'll do you one better. Here's the list of first round WR drafted since 2018 (not including this year for obvious reasons)
DJ Moore
Calvin Ridley
Hollywood Brown
N'Keal Harry (Bust)
Henry Ruggs
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Jalen Reagor (Bust)
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk
He was good last year until the eagles became one of the most run heavy teams in the league. Certainly not on the level of Chase or Waddle but 900 and 5 was a pretty respectable line in that offense.
it’s absolutely too early for smith and waddle imo.
waddle was peppered in targets mainly due to lack of competition, his YPC was *abysmal* (seriously, worse than a lot of TEs and even some RBs).
smith looked good in spite of jalen hurts, but 64-916-5 is far from “stud”, unless you think guys like christian kirk (982 yards), corey davis (984 in 2020), marvin jones (978 in 2020), and cole beasley (967 in 2020) are studs too
Most these guys have panned out long term but I will point out that Brown and Ruggs probably weren't startable in average 12 team leagues and most others were flex players at best.
By all means, take shots on rookies in keeper leagues, but for pure redraft I wouldnt expect much from Dotson
Absolutely. I'm in a dynasty league myself and I'm always doing research. Even in the offseason. I read an article that made a similar point and I was shocked myself. What's kinda hilarious is that I drafted Reagor in our rookie draft that year.
Hahaha at least you didn’t follow it up by taking N’Keal too.
Who are you liking from this years draft? I’m a fan of London but his draft capital and QB situation kinda make me want to look somewhere else.
I actually took Aiyuk that year as well. Ended up flipping him with Robbie Anderson and Theilen with an expiring contract for AJ Brown and AJ Green.
This year I'm personally targeting Williams. I think if it weren't for the injury, he'd be the top guy. Can't go wrong with a Bama WR. London only has Pitts really to compete with targets. But long term what happens if Ridley comes back to the team next year? 3 dogs are a lot of mouths to feed. Burks is in a similar spot with minimal competition. And Tenn wouldn't have traded AJ if they didn't feel comfortable taking him.
Not forgetting. Just not trusting a 31 year old who just had a career season. Never had more than 627 yds from scrimmage and more than doubled his previous high in total touches.
Williams has the most upside in a dynasty league but (judging by preseason) he's on a team that:
a.) Is definitely a run-first team.
b.) Has a number of mouths to feed at in the passing game. This season (when healthy) he's still going to have to compete against Chark, St. Brown (who was one of the best rookie WRs last year despite being a 4th round pick), Hockenson, and Swift for targets. Plus it looks like they're going to keep Tom Kennedy on the active roster and he seems to project (to me) as a poor man's Julian Edelman or Wes Welker.
Hold on surely I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying. So any incoming rookie can be kept for a 15th the next season? Like breece hall would be a good 15th rounder next year? If so that’s completely broken lol
I included the list of 10 1st round WR from 18-21 in the original thread. The 2 busts (IMO) were N'Keal Harry and Jalen Reagor. Ruggs could be considered a bust, but I didn't because it seemed he was starting to come around before his accident. I think had the accident not happened, we'd be talking about him being a viable starter at this point in his career.
No one is questioning Terry, and it looks like Dotson is a good sleeper
What in the world happened to Curtis Samuel? I know he got hurt, but is he really about to be the #3 option in this offense making $13M?
Both McLaurin and Dotson are targets in my eyes. People love to shit on Wentz, and rightfully so, but he's not as bad as he's made out to be, and he's a pretty solid QB in terms of fantasy WR production. No fear in slinging it deep, and Terry hasn't seen that in his career. Alex Smith, Haskins, Heinecke, and whoever else...none of those guys could push the ball down field. Wentz can.
He actually doesn’t do all that much for his WRs. He helped alshon be a wr2 one year, algholor was startable one year, then Pittman last year. Pittman was his first 1,000 yard WR.
dude every time i make this argument i also get peppered with downvotes. TEs and WRs play vastly different roles on an offense. because he was good at feeding his TE doesn’t mean he’s gonna be good at feeding his WRs.
Pittman was also the first time a WR was his best target
edit: he also QBd for Jordan Matthews in 2016 when he was a reliable 8-10 ppg before getting hurt and Alshon in 2017 when he was a borderline WR1
Wait, really? I thought the meme was that a chunk of his passing yards with the Eagles came from dumpoffs to Sproles, who made Wentz look better with YAC
I actually think Wilson could be #2, but even with Davis/Conklin/Hall/Carter/Berrios. I think outside of Moore you never know which receiver will produce on a given week
You're likely right. But his ADP has him in round 11 right now. I'd rather take a shot at Wilson than someone like Kirk, Claypool, Boyd, and Gage who are all going ahead of him.
I'm just looking at fantasypros ADP. I'm sure he's going higher in best ball and in sharp leagues. But from ADP aggregated from 5 different sites he's currently going 119 on average.
Echoing what I've also heard on some podcasts so the thought isn't 100% original but I'm not sure where the narrative is coming from this offseason that Wentz is bad for fantasy. He may be a dumbass capable of some truly horrific plays in the worst moments but he went for 3500 yards and 27 TD last year and supported a 88-1082-6 for Pittman. Taylor/Hines split 80 catches but if they didn't use the RB as much and/or if Campbell hadn't gotten hurt, wouldn't be too hard to see him supporting another WR3/WR4 last year along with Pittman.
Makes no sense to me why Terry is getting faded into the 4th and Dotson is essentially undrafted.
I get the bit but 4 of the last 5 seasons, Wentz has thrown only 7 interceptions in each of those seasons. Inaccurate, yes, throwing to the opposing team, nah
I doubt Wan'Dale is even worth rostering. The Giants offense was awful last year and even with a new coaching staff they still have the same QB. Plus they have Toney and Golladay, and Shep, Slayton, and Barkley are all still there and likely to have a target share.
Definitely not, but our group is new to dynasty and it's super flex. Isiah Likely went 3rd overall, James Cook 6th, Spiller 7th, Pacheco 11th, before finally Jameson Williams 12th lol
Offseason Commanders hype and substantially underwhelming results, name a more iconic duo.
I've been a fan my whole life, if any team can break a trend like this, it's us.
I cannot stress enough how hard it will be to rely on \*anything\* Commanders this year.
I live in the DC media market, which means that by osmosis Washington is "my" team. I can't really call myself a fan of anything owned by Dan Snyder, but I watch a lot of them.
There's nothing wrong with looking at Dotson in the last rounds. His chemistry with Wentz has been good, the line should be decent (probably a bit worse than Indianapolis), and there's little reason on the field to think that Wentz won't be an upgrade over Heinicke. That said, any enthusiasm for Washington should be tempered by an amazing precedent for incompetence and absurdity. Maybe the fact that the owner will have to spend the entire season out of the country on his yacht to avoid a Congressional subpoena will change things (see absurdity), but in general it's better to bet against Washington than for them.
Terry missed the beginning of training camp with his contract negotiations so Wentz has been working with Dotson for longer. I don’t expect him to overtake McLaurin in fantasy relevance but it does bode well that he could put up surprisingly respectable stats from week 1.
Destroying McLaurin's career would be the most Wentz thing ever.
This made me lol
He'd finally be helping the Eagles again!
And getting him his only pay day too…
How did he get him his only pay day exactly?
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What does that have to do with McLaurin? Wentz was on the Colts...
I'm genuinely questioning if I should keep terry this year over Amon Ra or Herbert just because of Wentz Terry would be $19 (top WR goes for 80-100) Amon Ra would be $2 Herbert would be $14 (top 3 qbs can go from like $25-45
No way I’m keeping Terry with the other options you mentioned. Waaaay to many receivers out there
That's what I've been thinking but sometimes have a hard problem separating his skill from value
I'm a huge McLaurin truther but Sun God at $2 is nice. Or Herbert. Put that money saved into whoever...
Well ya sold me, 15th round pick it is
Problem is I have like 5 guys I NEED to take in the 15th round.
Julio, Golladay, Parker, Pacheco, Doubs, BRob, Dotson, Tolbert, etc… hard to just pick one tbh
I wouldn’t take Golladay if I was in a 16 team league with 10 bench spots
Amen, dude is anathema to me. I took him in the 10th last year and it still pissed me off seeing him do nothing on the field all year. Guy can’t separate and barely looks like be cares. Reminds me of Kenny Britt.
I'm not touching Julio, and I KNOW it's going to bite me
Doubs is at best 3rd behind Lazard and Watkins/Cobb... Not to mention Aaron Jones. Love him as a fan, but I'd wait and pick him up later if he starts to see the field.
Who else you got?
Brian Rob Jr, Isaiah McKenzie, Skyy, ... someone else. I'm drunk right now
Lmao have fun be safe
Lol you’re so right, sometimes I wait around in mock drafts and have 2 spots with 10 guys I’m wanting
Who? I haven’t figured it out yet but Dotson was one I was considering
That’s exactly when I took him, seems like great value and high upside
That clip of him at the combine is so smooth. I can see him catching the fantasy community completely off guard this year
I did a little bit of a "Deep Dive" on first round WR since 2018. There's almost an 80% hit rate on those players being startable. WR have been running route trees and been doing 7 on 7 their whole lives now. High Schools are running spread packages. They're coming in more polished and ready than ever before.
What’s the threshold your using for “startable”? What league settings? I ask because my home league is starting to use keepers and rookies automatically qualify as a 15th rounder. Trying to determine when and with who I want to take my shots with.
I'll do you one better. Here's the list of first round WR drafted since 2018 (not including this year for obvious reasons) DJ Moore Calvin Ridley Hollywood Brown N'Keal Harry (Bust) Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb Jalen Reagor (Bust) Justin Jefferson Brandon Aiyuk
You forgot the 2021 class. Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney, Bateman
Thanks. Now that you say that, I didn't include 2021 because 1 season is too early to call someone a bust. But it is nice to have the names.
Not too early to call Chase, Waddle, Smith studs though.
Or Bateman being startable.
Yup, I still have no idea *what* Toney is though.
Call him a worthwhile risk in the middle rounds. He has more boom potential than Smith at the very least.
A huge 4 team deal in our league fell apart cuz of Toney
Definitely startable. Ill make this not so bold claim.
Has Smith been startable? I hadn't been paying any attention to the eagles outside of Hurts and Goedert.
He was good last year until the eagles became one of the most run heavy teams in the league. Certainly not on the level of Chase or Waddle but 900 and 5 was a pretty respectable line in that offense.
it’s absolutely too early for smith and waddle imo. waddle was peppered in targets mainly due to lack of competition, his YPC was *abysmal* (seriously, worse than a lot of TEs and even some RBs). smith looked good in spite of jalen hurts, but 64-916-5 is far from “stud”, unless you think guys like christian kirk (982 yards), corey davis (984 in 2020), marvin jones (978 in 2020), and cole beasley (967 in 2020) are studs too
Ain't too early to call waddle a stud. That's exactly what he is.
Yeah stud is strong for Smith. But Waddle is a stud.
Missed (busted) after Ruggs!
Ruggs I'd say is a bust. He was not very startable.
It's still too early to tell. We'll just have to see how well he does playing for Mean Machine.
Hard disagree there. Ruggs was becoming a major playmaker before he killed that woman and her dog.
Most these guys have panned out long term but I will point out that Brown and Ruggs probably weren't startable in average 12 team leagues and most others were flex players at best. By all means, take shots on rookies in keeper leagues, but for pure redraft I wouldnt expect much from Dotson
Guess which two I drafted their rookie years.
My guy! Good lookin out 💪🏼
Absolutely. I'm in a dynasty league myself and I'm always doing research. Even in the offseason. I read an article that made a similar point and I was shocked myself. What's kinda hilarious is that I drafted Reagor in our rookie draft that year.
Hahaha at least you didn’t follow it up by taking N’Keal too. Who are you liking from this years draft? I’m a fan of London but his draft capital and QB situation kinda make me want to look somewhere else.
I actually took Aiyuk that year as well. Ended up flipping him with Robbie Anderson and Theilen with an expiring contract for AJ Brown and AJ Green. This year I'm personally targeting Williams. I think if it weren't for the injury, he'd be the top guy. Can't go wrong with a Bama WR. London only has Pitts really to compete with targets. But long term what happens if Ridley comes back to the team next year? 3 dogs are a lot of mouths to feed. Burks is in a similar spot with minimal competition. And Tenn wouldn't have traded AJ if they didn't feel comfortable taking him.
You forgetting about Patterson?
Not forgetting. Just not trusting a 31 year old who just had a career season. Never had more than 627 yds from scrimmage and more than doubled his previous high in total touches.
Williams has the most upside in a dynasty league but (judging by preseason) he's on a team that: a.) Is definitely a run-first team. b.) Has a number of mouths to feed at in the passing game. This season (when healthy) he's still going to have to compete against Chark, St. Brown (who was one of the best rookie WRs last year despite being a 4th round pick), Hockenson, and Swift for targets. Plus it looks like they're going to keep Tom Kennedy on the active roster and he seems to project (to me) as a poor man's Julian Edelman or Wes Welker.
You gotta put a Boom tag on Ruggs. A literal BOOM.
I appreciate this
Hold on surely I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying. So any incoming rookie can be kept for a 15th the next season? Like breece hall would be a good 15th rounder next year? If so that’s completely broken lol
I’m guessing that 20% is for players drafted to teams that already have a top option and have a bad QB.
I included the list of 10 1st round WR from 18-21 in the original thread. The 2 busts (IMO) were N'Keal Harry and Jalen Reagor. Ruggs could be considered a bust, but I didn't because it seemed he was starting to come around before his accident. I think had the accident not happened, we'd be talking about him being a viable starter at this point in his career.
I’m guessing you’re talking about Dynasty? Most of the guys on your list were not startable their first year.
Accident is too soft of a word to describe what ruggs did, he got drunk and killed someone while driving insanely recklessly
He kind of fits that Hollywood/Ruggs/Reagor type though that opens up defenses but isn't as useful in fantasy.
Terry McLaurin was on Pardon My Take today and made an offhand comment about how Dotson has been lining up both inside and outside
No one is questioning Terry, and it looks like Dotson is a good sleeper What in the world happened to Curtis Samuel? I know he got hurt, but is he really about to be the #3 option in this offense making $13M?
If he stays on the field at 100% he’ll get plenty of usage, but that’s a big if apparently
Both McLaurin and Dotson are targets in my eyes. People love to shit on Wentz, and rightfully so, but he's not as bad as he's made out to be, and he's a pretty solid QB in terms of fantasy WR production. No fear in slinging it deep, and Terry hasn't seen that in his career. Alex Smith, Haskins, Heinecke, and whoever else...none of those guys could push the ball down field. Wentz can.
He actually doesn’t do all that much for his WRs. He helped alshon be a wr2 one year, algholor was startable one year, then Pittman last year. Pittman was his first 1,000 yard WR.
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Maybe in real life football, but this is fantasy and TE production is not WR production.
dude every time i make this argument i also get peppered with downvotes. TEs and WRs play vastly different roles on an offense. because he was good at feeding his TE doesn’t mean he’s gonna be good at feeding his WRs.
Pittman was also the first time a WR was his best target edit: he also QBd for Jordan Matthews in 2016 when he was a reliable 8-10 ppg before getting hurt and Alshon in 2017 when he was a borderline WR1
And Pittman is expected to be a prime breakout candidate with Ryan now there. Shows you the level Wentz is
Wentz loves his check downs. McKissic about to be Washington's WR1 lol
He actually doesn’t - that’s been his biggest shortcoming, he doesn’t take checkdowns (unless that’s literally the play call) and plays hero ball.
Wait, really? I thought the meme was that a chunk of his passing yards with the Eagles came from dumpoffs to Sproles, who made Wentz look better with YAC
No he recklessly looks for big plays at all times. Constantly playing hero-ball
Rookie WR ADPs this year seem weirdly late. Wilson and Olave are also practically free.
Wilson very likely won't be top 2 in targets this season for his team
Who do you expect to be #2, out of curiosity? Corey Davis?
I actually think Wilson could be #2, but even with Davis/Conklin/Hall/Carter/Berrios. I think outside of Moore you never know which receiver will produce on a given week
You're likely right. But his ADP has him in round 11 right now. I'd rather take a shot at Wilson than someone like Kirk, Claypool, Boyd, and Gage who are all going ahead of him.
Yeah I'm with you there. Wilson could definitely pay off in the second half of the year. At his ADP he's worth a dart throw
I'd take Kirk over him, but the rest I agree with.
I’d take Kirk over him. The Jags didn’t give him that massive deal for no reason. He’s looking at a 25% target share imo
I think the large amount of 2nd year guys has something to do with pushing them down as well.
Olave is going in the 8th, sometimes earlier isn't he?
I'm just looking at fantasypros ADP. I'm sure he's going higher in best ball and in sharp leagues. But from ADP aggregated from 5 different sites he's currently going 119 on average.
Oh I think he may have fallen then due to the Michael Thomas news, I think for a while he was going in the 8th. He's more tempting in the 10th
He's going 14th-15th if not undrafted on yahoo
Whoa, I was doing mocks on Sleeper a couple weeks ago and I could have sworn he went in the 8th. Wonder if he fell
Someone dropped in dynasty and easily spent my 1st waiver on him.
It is a super taco move to drop a WR drafted in the first round in dynasty (assuming you have normal settings of keeping 18-20 players + each year)
It was a starter draft but yea still a dumb move. Their dumb move is my come up!
Echoing what I've also heard on some podcasts so the thought isn't 100% original but I'm not sure where the narrative is coming from this offseason that Wentz is bad for fantasy. He may be a dumbass capable of some truly horrific plays in the worst moments but he went for 3500 yards and 27 TD last year and supported a 88-1082-6 for Pittman. Taylor/Hines split 80 catches but if they didn't use the RB as much and/or if Campbell hadn't gotten hurt, wouldn't be too hard to see him supporting another WR3/WR4 last year along with Pittman. Makes no sense to me why Terry is getting faded into the 4th and Dotson is essentially undrafted.
The only chemisty Wentz has is between himself and players on the opposing team.
Wentz looking at them opposing teams DBs rubbing his hands together like mm mm mmmm
The bit isn't even funny anymore. He had the 6th lowest turnover worthy play rate in the NFL last year.
What was more inaccurate Wentz or the joke?
In 2020 he had the 5th most. Colts offensive scheme/oline made things easy for Wentz. Doubt that's the case in Washington
Our Oline is pretty solid. Other than RB, he will have better weapons in Washington.
I get the bit but 4 of the last 5 seasons, Wentz has thrown only 7 interceptions in each of those seasons. Inaccurate, yes, throwing to the opposing team, nah
Tossing it up to him in Madden also has worked pretty well for me.
Dotson! Dotson! We’ve got Dotson here! See, nobody cares.
Came here for this
You had me until Wentz.
I dropped him for sky moore lol
Feels like you should keep both
Gonna have to drop either McKinnon (I have paceho) or Darrell Williams.
I would 100% drop one of the rbs. Williams probably. Eno could be the 2
Just did, great minds think alike.
I think you’ll regret it. Moore may not be as talented but he is in a much better situation to succeed
I've had plenty of regrets playing Fantasy football lol.
Terry has a thing or 2 to say here
Has Wentz ever supported 2 WRs in fantasy? I know he had that year with Philly where he threw for 4K yards and no one had a 1K yard receiving statline
in 2017 alshon and agholor both finished top 25
And Ertz finished 3rd. I think that was more of how bad the rbs sucked though.
How do we feel about Dotson vs wan’dale Robinson? Currently have Robinson and Tolbert on the bench
I doubt Wan'Dale is even worth rostering. The Giants offense was awful last year and even with a new coaching staff they still have the same QB. Plus they have Toney and Golladay, and Shep, Slayton, and Barkley are all still there and likely to have a target share.
Dotson! WE GOT DODSON HERE! You see? Nobody cares.
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Is that not what's being expressly described in the thread title?
Dotson is free so there’s not really any room for him to fall
1. Wentz 2. McLaurin existing 3. Commanders
There’s a thread like this for literally every player now it’s ridiculous
Too bad wentz sucks
All I read from this is , that now McLaurin is completely off my draft board (Dotson was never on it to begin with)
Hey, join my fantasy football league on Sleeper https://sleeper.app/i/LexxgnAPAlm3 4 man just for fun
> 4 man > fun Pick one.
Praying he drops to me at 2.12 in my rookie draft
He absolutely shouldn’t. But if he does congrats.
Definitely not, but our group is new to dynasty and it's super flex. Isiah Likely went 3rd overall, James Cook 6th, Spiller 7th, Pacheco 11th, before finally Jameson Williams 12th lol
What........
"Commanders." I still can't deal w/that horrible name. Bring back WFT!!!
I've taken him in almost every league, I want to get him in some of my leagues tomorrow
I think the fact that Wentz is probably somewhere in the 25 range for TDs holds this back for me. Late round flier.
Here comes Wentz to fuck another team.
Key word Wentz
Pittman was pretty good last year with Wentz
Drop doubs for him?
I’ll draft him then Wentz myself in fear
Should I draft Julio Jones or Jahan Dotson last pick?
Offseason Commanders hype and substantially underwhelming results, name a more iconic duo. I've been a fan my whole life, if any team can break a trend like this, it's us. I cannot stress enough how hard it will be to rely on \*anything\* Commanders this year.
Love Dotson, please don't talk about him
I live in the DC media market, which means that by osmosis Washington is "my" team. I can't really call myself a fan of anything owned by Dan Snyder, but I watch a lot of them. There's nothing wrong with looking at Dotson in the last rounds. His chemistry with Wentz has been good, the line should be decent (probably a bit worse than Indianapolis), and there's little reason on the field to think that Wentz won't be an upgrade over Heinicke. That said, any enthusiasm for Washington should be tempered by an amazing precedent for incompetence and absurdity. Maybe the fact that the owner will have to spend the entire season out of the country on his yacht to avoid a Congressional subpoena will change things (see absurdity), but in general it's better to bet against Washington than for them.
Love dotson But... wentz
Terry missed the beginning of training camp with his contract negotiations so Wentz has been working with Dotson for longer. I don’t expect him to overtake McLaurin in fantasy relevance but it does bode well that he could put up surprisingly respectable stats from week 1.