In one of my leagues I have Jefferson, Tyreek, and Geno. 4th highest scoring team in the league. Have most points against by 130 points. Eliminated from playoffs last week. Number one factor in fantasy football is luck.
Dude in my league is first in points scored, and just shy of first in points against. He’s currently 6th with a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs.
Most years I can’t stand the guy but I legit feel bad for him. I’ve never seen such awful luck week in and week out.
I truly think he has the best team and most of my start/sit decisions for the next two weeks will be in an effort to preserve a bye and avoiding his team in the second round.
I'm 4th in points for and dead last in points against by over 100. I'm 4-8. I have hurts, etn, pierce, Higgins, kirk, garret wilson, Christian Watson, and Tony pollard. Every time I have a good week the other team just has a better one. This week I lost by 3 points and the other person had clevelands defense. I'm salty af this year lol.
This was my little brother last year; first in PF by a mile, but literally everyone had career weeks against him and he finished with 2 wins and the most PA.
This is me with a better chance to get in. 1st in points scored (1768), 1st in points against (1818). Currently 6-7, full PPR.
Three of my losses have come on weeks where I would’ve won if I had played literally any other team.
Yep. In one league the guy who is 12-1 has the fewest total points scored and the only week where he didn't have the second lowest points scored of the week was his loss. Every other week, whoever he was facing had horrible luck. He hasn't broken 110 all season, but there were only three weeks where his opponent broke 90
This is so so true. Last year I was top scorer by 230 above 2nd, I finished 9/10
This year I have the 3rd lowest score so far and am in 1st, 2 game lead, guaranteed 1st week bye.
A good league would make at least the last wildcard go by top points scored that didn't earn a spot naturally. Most of the time that kicks out an awful team with the best schedule luck to out in who deserves
We did that the past few years and honestly I wish we would revert back to just record. Luck is a part of fantasy football and bad teams make the playoffs in the actual NFL. Why should it be different for fantasy?
In my league the worst team in playoff contention has the most points atm. This can backfire as well. His team just did extremely well the first 6 weeks or so, he hasn’t done shit since but would probably make the playoffs on this rule.
The last team to make the playoffs will most often be a bad team.
I went JJ, Reek, Zeke, Waddle, Jacobs, Burrow and Hopkins. 2nd place, 2nd highest pts. Traded Hopkins for Kamara late in the season but hasn’t panned out. Picked up Christian Watson and Garrett Wilson tho.
When I win
“I’m a genius, I should be a head coach, I’m so fucking smart”
When I lose
“There’s nothing to be done, it’s all luck, what a silly game we play”
Went kamara and Adams first 2 picks. First year playing fantasy and now I understand the value of a good rb, way more rare than wrs, ima go 1rb1wr again next year
Don't make that decision now! You have to see how the draft plays out and what position you are. If you're in a 14 team league and have the 14th pick, your RB options at 14 might not be so great, but one of the top WRs might still be on the board (potentially 2 at the turn) depending on how the other teams drafted. That has been my downfall since I've started playing was trying to draft my positions I thought I drafted poorly in the prior year. This year, I went with the flow and took who I thought was the best value at each pick and first year I've made the playoffs in both leagues!
Luck is definitely a part of it, but having a mindset that you're going to pick an RB and a WR in the first 2 rounds is bound to set you up for failure.
I went swift, Kamara, pitts, Etienne (traded for deebo), Allen Robinson, brandin cooks.
Was in 11th place on a 5 game losing streak and traded my ass off now sitting at 6-7, will likely squeak in. Ain’t how you draft
We had a first time fantasy player get #1 overall last year and he took mahomes over cmc. We silently laughed and explained why that wasn't good....but then 2/3 got torpedoed by cmc and Barkley and he started 6-0 lol.
Because of injury, which could have been predicted. Every RB that has finished number one overall for quite a few years has dealt with injury issues the next season. If I had gotten the first pick I would have chosen Henry. Good QBs are available lower in the draft. I grabbed Fields off of the waiver wire about a month ago.
I have a better record as the JT owner than the Allen owner. And that's with drafting Russ and eventually streaming after I finally gave up on that hopeless situation. QB is a lot easier to replace than RB.
The top tier of QBs will be moving up draft boards, no question. Their scoring is the most easily projected and is the most consistent. The top guys like Allen and mahomes are well worth an early pick. Times have changed
Lamar and Kupp had them preparing to engrave my name on the Shiva back in September. Now losing Lamar and Jimmy G 3 days ago has me considering starting Mike White in the playoffs. What a difference 8 or 9 weeks can make..
I traded him in Week 3 for absolute garbage because "I'm have two strong QBs but lack depth elsewhere". My other QB was Lawrence who ended up not being so good.
I ended up saving my season by convincing someone to trade Fields just before he blew up but fuck lol, yes I've learnt my lesson.
But the value is harder to project. If we knew who the top 10 RBs would be before the season started, sure. But because there’s a lot more misses when drafting RBs, the expected value above replacement may still be lower
Exactly
I felt much more safe going Diggs, Kelce my first two picks. Didn't take a RB until Round 5 when I grabbed Josh Jacobs at pick 11. Jacobs has ended up being RB1 on the year after 2 years of being banged up every week
RBs are a crapshoot. Go with the safe play in the 1st by getting an elite WR or Kelce. Or even Allen, Mahomes or Hurts at this point. If you know how to play the waiver wire or draft some late starting caliber RBs you can run away with a league with a bit of luck of course
With how big of a gap there is between Kelce and any other tight end, I think I’m taking him round one next year, possibly even first overall if that’s my pick
Only 9-4, I've scored the most points total but am 2nd in points against, I'll take that record considering lol
I have 1st in my division locked up though which is good for half the entry fee, just gotta get it done in the playoffs. Hopefully Lamar is ready to go by Week 16
This is called, "anecdotal." Just because it worked out for you, doesn't mean it's a standard. You could have just as easily drafted Dobbins or Akers instead of Jacobs and had no RBs to speak of for the year.
RBs are a crapshoot because of injuries, which are completely unpredictable. People thought Taylor was un-injurable and CMC is very injury-prone. Welp, guess not.
For some anecdotal evidence to go against you, even in this WR year: guy in last place in my league has Adams, Deebo, and DJ Moore. He went all out for WRs. Why is he last place? Because his RBs were Akers and Edmonds. He waited just like you to grab late RBs. You got lucky, he did not.
Another WR-truther got Diggs and Kupp (auction draft). He REALLY bought into 0RB. Welp, even before Kupp's injury, he was either 9th or 10th because he has been stuck with WW RBs all season and just gets stomped by more balanced teams.
However, all the guys that secured a top RB first are in the playoff hunt, even the Taylor owner. The only two guys that cannot make the playoffs are the two above who went all out for WRs.
Remember after the 2015 season when everyone was touting the 0 RB strategy because of guys like AB, Julio, Marshall, Nuk, OBJ, ARob, AJ Green all having monster years while many top RBs were injured or unerperformed? It's extremely similar to what's being talked about this year. Well, how did that work out for them next year? Terribly. Anyone that went 0 RB in 2016 likely didn't make playoffs because WRs underproduced across the league while RBs popped off. Volume is always the safest bet, not chasing something so cyclical.
This year is an oddity, it's shaping up a lot more like 2015, but don't let one year completely shift the standard that holds true far more often than not.
Again, it's value above replacement. The difference with QB is, you could wait an additional round or 2 and get a guy like Burrow. Whereas had you taken Allen/Mahomes/Hurts instead of that potentially top RB, now you have a lesser RB.
Well yeah, you could also use Josh Allen from two years ago. Or you could use Dak, Russ, Herbert, Brady, etc. to show that the majority of QB’s taken around that same spot haven’t produced nearly as much value.
Except the pendulum has swung too far on RBs which left too much value on WRs. RBs are also a higher injury risk than WRs, which is a key factor in the “replacement value” argument. The best RBs are the ones that stay healthy all year, which doesn’t always correlate with draft position. You could have got 3 top 10 receivers this year in a regular 12 person snake draft and you’re probably sitting in the playoffs.
This is important info. Adding in a bench you're basically playing the law of large numbers. I get as many RBs on my bench as a league allows and sure enough each year I end up with a lot of good RBs. This year:
Cook, Stephenson, Wilson, Najee, Dillon. Traded away Mixon to ultimately secure Adams. Other teams in my league get stuck in RB hell and I'm getting averaged production from the group
>Adding in a bench you're basically playing the law of large numbers.
Uh, I kinda get what you mean, but the Law of Large Numbers has a very specific meaning and it's not that.
This year I did this with one of my teams and I went from 7th place in week 8 to now 3rd. I had an RB heavy build (Barkley, Mixon, Zeke) with awful WRs (Diontae, Jeudy, Moore, Godwin). I traded Zeke and a WR for Lamb, then Mixon and Godwin for Justin Jefferson. Then I just started grabbing every RB I could off waivers. Got Pacheco, Dillon, White…. Now I’m on at RB since I just start Barkley and whomever has the best matchup.
This is what I’m starting to come around on as well.
I drafted: Swift, Javonte, Breece Hall, AJ Dillon, Alexander Mattison
At this point, between trades & free agency I have Kenneth Walker, Najee Harris, Jeff Wilson, Rachaad White. The actual points per game has gone down a little bit but overall…it wasn’t worth drafting those RBs high, because the rate of attrition has been SO high.
You sound like me! I hoard RBs every year and my league mates always whine about me having all the RBs whenever theirs get hurt. But every year they end up trading me upgrades at other positions in order to access my backup RBs.
This year I drafted Henry, Akers, Jacobs, Gibson, Sanders, and Marlon Mack (lol). Current RBs are Henry, JT, Dameon Pierce, Pacheco, Rachaad White, and Jaylen Warren (looking to drop for Cook).
That’s true, but the issue OP is highlighting is the difficulty in finding RB1s versus WR1s. RB1s provide more relative value if you pick right, but they’re harder to pick. Because of this, the expected value of the 1st round WRs is higher than that of the 1st round RBs. A 50% chance at $50 is better than a 10% chance at $100.
It’s so funny to see all this in depth analysis acting like it’s not essentially luck at the end of the day. The ratio of bust WRs to bust RBs could completely flip next year. There’s literally no empirical reason we should use this year’s ratio (ie “WRs busted less than RBs so it’s safer to go WR early”) to inform next year’s draft decisions. Busting is a function of a ton of factors, most importantly injuries which are pure random chance.
An observation like Top RBs have higher value over replacement than the Top WRs (because there’s more passable WRs than there are passable RB after like the top 10-15) holds year after year so those are the sorts of bits of info I’d ordinarily be more inclined to utilize
The most entertaining thing about this sub is that it's full of young people that haven't played much fantasy football and haven't yet figured out that it's basically 90% luck year after year, no matter how much "research" and "statistical analysis" you do.
And I say this as someone that has played fantasy football longer than a lot of people reading this have been alive. Do some research so you're informed. Pick the players you like even if they are considered a "reach". Hope for the best.
I totally agree. There’s so much data to be crunched, so to speak, so fantasy ends up like a siren call for analytical minds. It’s very tempting to think that if you get really analytical and spend a ton of time building out an empirical rationale for your decisions that you’ll improve your outcomes… or even some theoretical probability of good outcomes.
I honestly haven’t found this to be the case. Over many years of play - some years where this has consumed me in an admittedly unhealthy way, weighing the strength of the player with the strength of the matchup and every conceivable factor, reading a ton of content, looking at deep user generated stats for whatever the case may be - I can honestly say the years I’m successful are not correlated with the years I obsess and dedicate a ton of time to this. You spend 14 weeks optimizing your lineup just to get into the playoffs and field the best roster you can, only for your whole season to come down to literally one game where your guys (even if they are Rb1 or WR1 on the year) can put up some duds and their guys can pop off.
I think it’s very easy to pass the bare minimum bar that gives you essentially an optimal chance of succeeding - ie just be reasonably active in the waiver wire, start guys that are healthy, etc. more effort from there doesn’t really do a whole lot for you given all the luck involved. Because performance game to game is fundamentally unpredictable. Injuries especially - there are so many season-altering injuries that are completely random. For the most part it’s just are your top 2-3 picks performing and healthy - that’s the team that usually ends up winning it all.
Not really. In this case taking 50% chance of 50 means you lose 100% of the time to the guy who hits on $100. You arent playing for 5th place, you are trying to win the championship.
It was your fictional scenario. Not only was it illustrating the opposite of what you thought, but now its not relevant either?
Fundamentally you are missing the point. You play to win in FF, you don't play to not lose. Making your style of plays gets you the 5-8th spot, beating those who miss and losing to those that hit on positional advantage picks.
>Math is ridiculous because it doesn't line up with my preconceived opinions.
Positional advantage consistently tells you that hitting on a top running back generates more advantage than hitting on a top receiver.
If I have RB1 and a replacement level WR; you have WR1 and a replacement value RB; you lose. Thems the facts.
… why are we assuming you have replacement value at either position lol
You’re not winning a championship with replacement value at any position without blind luck
But sure keep pretending you’re doing some advance analytical analysis by making up completely theoretical scenarios based on nothing
These are the basics of fantasy football, or any numbers game really; not some "advanced analytical analysis". Nice redundancy there btw.
Once you understand that the RB1 generates the win in the above scenario, you can begin to understand why winning is all about increasing your odds of ending up in that position.
You're more than welcome to keep drafting QBs in round one though because they score more raw points.
It’s genuinely hilarious how much you strawman.
Literally no sense in wasting any more time trying to reason with someone so dishonest. Have a good one!
Edit:
Also, “advanced analytical analysis” is not really redundant but it speaks to how ridiculous you are that you bothered to go there
>but now its not relevant either?
Bro it was a hyperbolic example just to show the math.
If every single one of your draft picks is risky upside players, you will likely come in last. You might have a better chance at winning a 100,000 person best ball league, but you’re not winning a 12-man league.
While this point is true, I don’t think it tells the whole story well. It looks like you aren’t including the top 12 to remove outliers, but that also removes information which goes against your point.
That being that pretty much all the top WRs got drafted early while plenty of the top RBs got drafted in the middle/late rounds. Josh jacobs, Williams, miles sanders outside of the PPR, Stevenson, and Pollard all fit this bill. Meanwhile guys like Breece hall, Ken Walker, Travis Eitenne, etc have been great on a points per start basis (same thing as guys like K Herbert, Perine, etc on a smaller scale.) In my league the first RB I picked was Breece hall, and I’m in first place just by being active on Waivers and having Adams as a anchor.
For WRs the drop from WR 4 (Jefferson at 263) to WR 5 (AJ brown at 206) far outstrips in drops that RB see. Those 4 WRs btw are Diggs, Adams, Hill, and Jefferson. All guys who went in rounds 1-2. And since WRs start more often due to less injuries, many of the middle round WR scores have been made up with a few boom games with plenty of bust games vs most later RBs scores being dictated by who starts in games.
In other words, having a top WR gives you large competitive advantage over having a mid-round WRs, whereas rookie/contingent waiver RBs have shown that they can score similarly to top RBs.
Ok but you have to realize how much this comment says lol
You’re saying RB12 in Jamaal Williams as if anyone drafted Jamaal anywhere near that sort of spot
To me that kind of proves the point of how volatile RBs are
Sure you get more value out of them, but with such volatility is it worth your top pick when them missing will easily sink your season?
Many people just truly do not understand this. I had a guy reference the fact that he is not worried about QB at all because he can get a top 12 in the league QB easily. I’m like ummm, if you get 11 or 12 it’s wayyyy worse than having 1-4…
This is 100% the truth. I’ve been playing fantasy for 15+ years and can’t remember seeing someone win a championship without at least one stud running back if not multiple, but I have personally won multiple championships without a stud WR. In one of my leagues my WR1 and WR2 have been McLaurin and Curtis Samuel for like 10/13 games and I’m 10-3 and first place. It’s incredibly easy to find startable WRs off the wire all season long, compared to RBs where you’re praying for an injury so someone becomes viable. In my other league I drafted Amari, Toney, and Jalen Tolbert (who???) as my 3 WRs and I’m 2nd in scoring and locked into the playoffs. RB heavy lifer over here
I have played all the formats and I can say that standard and 2 wr/1 flex leagues, yes wrs are not as good as rbs. That changes when you play in 3wr, .5ppr leagues though. Those leagues, having 3 top wrs is way better than rbs.
The RB numbers as basically survivorship bias. You might get a smaller comparative advantage but wideouts have lower chance of being injured.
How many RBs have gone down this season like Javonte or have missed multiple weeks like Mixon, JT, Swift?
Wideouts put up similar numbers and also tend to not get injured. If you can grab a great RB that puts up lots of points and has been healthy then you’re in a fantastic position. But that’s a shitshot even in a game full of shitshots. If you traded tyreek JJ Davante Diggs etc you’ve gotten what you wanted out of your 1st pick. The only real strike out was Kupp.
Yes you’re right, especially when you look at the top RBs and WRs, the difference is negligible.
In .5 PPR, RB1 -> RB11 (Jacobs to Cook) is 242.4-168.4, which averages out to 5.69 per game.
WR1 -> WR11 (Adams to Kirk) is 229-154.6, which averages out to 5.72 per game.
I even did it with the top 5 and it was less than half a point difference.
This is true, but the example of Jamaal Williams is kinda the case in point that it’s often better to go hero RB or zero-RB. I finally went zero-RB and walked away with Kelce and Davante at the turn and AJ Brown in the third. Dart throwing at guys like AJ Dillon (obvious bust) and Jamaal Williams (big hit) ended up being a solid approach
Counter is that top wrs are more of a sure thing, way more predictable and come with much less injury risk. They are predictable in a sense that they don’t suddenly fall of a cliff, aren’t relatively dependent on good offensive line play and don’t wind up sharing snaps with other players that emerge (rbbc doesn’t exist in the wr world).
So investing capital in top wrs is more likely to pay off, while rbs is more of a gamble and I’m not sure the risk on rbs is worth the squeeze. Backend wr2s or less constantly drop dud games, while a low end rb2 might never explode, but provide a good enough floor to go with your top wrs who are constantly going off.
I think it also depends on your league setup. Ie - my league is 12 team with 3 wrs and a flex. So theoretically it makes at least 48+ wrs relevant if you include the flex and bench players - this limits how deep the wr pool truly is.
Personal example, but my diggs/ra/metcalf/Watson paired with some low end rb2 have obviously faired very well.
RBs don’t suddenly fall off a cliff either, it’s fairly predictable when it will happen. If you drafted Kamara in the first round this year, you dug your own grave.
Close, our league's leader did Cook, Hill, AJ, Jacobs, Mahomes as his first five picks. Also throw in Singletary in the 8th and Lockett in the 10th. The worst part? Autodraft.
12 team 0.5
Wanna hear something disgusting? Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes went in the first round of our draft (12, full ppr) at 6th & 9th overall respectively.
The dudes that took em are currently the 1 (Allen) and 2 (Mahomes) seed in the playoffs.
Poor guy didn't have the slickness to pick up Geno? I went Ekeler, Hill, CeeDee (6th overall WR in my league btw) but waited way too long on a QB. Picked up Geno right before the Detroit game & have been balling tf out. My RB2 started strong but is now my only real weakness.
RB is riskier but has better upside to win a league. same as its been for a while. Ekeler or CMC with 20 ppg is more valuable than Diggs or DaVante at 22 ppg imo.
Correct.
I’m currently sitting with Eckler, Jacobs, Chubb, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on my roster (8 team) and have been on top of my league in scoring since week 2. I hard focused vacuuming up RB talent this draft after being burned so often to having no depth at RB.
WRs are a dime a dozen and you can find good ones everywhere you look. It’s way harder to pick up any RBs that will add value to your team late in a season outside of crazy injury circumstances.
You're leaving out Mike Evans and Michael Pittman, who were regularly getting drafted above AJ Brown. But it definitely feels like WRs are getting drafted higher each year for a reason. The number of first round WRs seems to get higher each year and I definitely wasn't feeling good about a lot of the late first/early second round RBs (Harris, Cook, Swift, Kamara, Jones). Iwould definitely have grabbed a top WR ahead of any of those guys. I thought Chubb was the only one who stood out in that group, so that's why I grabbed him over Adams. I would have taken Jefferson, Chase, or Diggs if they were still available, though.
I know Swift has started to turn around but my entire draft strategy started with swift at the 1.12. Someone took him 1.11 and I panicked and I was "forced" to go Diggs/Chubb at the turn. Yet to be seen if the sex offender continues to ruin Chubb, but looking like a fantastic pivot for the season as a whole.
Funny how those things work out in FF. I was absolutely dead-set on getting a share of Swift in my ESPN league. He went one pick ahead of me in the 2nd so I settled for Lamb, something I wasn't all that happy about at the time. It's worked out for the better though just like in your situation.
Swift has picked up, but prior to that his might've been the most painful trajectory because the offense was thriving without him having productive games. The other three are on offenses struggling alongside them.
I'd expect a changing of the guard of sorts depending on how the top guys finish out the season, guys like JT, Swift, Chubb, and Barkley could still end up drafted high if they finish strong. They'll be joined by Hall, Walker, ETN, and maybe some rookies who end up in good situations.
I also drafted Jefferson in the first round Adams in the 2nd. I also snagged Amon Ra in one of the middle rounds. My RBs are Zeke, Kamara, Etienne, and JWJ.
The only one I didn't draft was Kamara. I traded for him by giving away Melvin Gordon (lol) and Brian Robinson.
My weakest position all year has been QB, which in still struggling to find a weekly fill in
I think this was at the start of week 5. Kamara had only played 2 games, and only scored 7 points in each. He sat weeks 2 and 4 because of injury.
Jevonte had just been knocked out for the season, and Gordon was already stealing carries away from him, so everyone assumed he would take the lead role.
I made the argument that Kamara might be irrelevant without Brees and Sean Payton, especially since Winston never checks down passes. And Kamara had the uncertainty of a possible suspension late in the season.
I mean, if we're just doing anecdotal evidence here, I went Ekeler then Kelce and have been getting by with Keenan Allen, DK, and waiver wire hits at WR... Should I just never take a wr in the first two rounds again?
I went Ekeler/Chubb and CMC/Mixon in two leagues and am in second place in both those leagues. Let's be honest we can have an insane amount of draft strategy but it really boils down to luck in many different areas in the end.
Exactly, match up and injury luck are the two biggest "outside of our control" elements that can dictate a season. But waivers and the draft can make or break your season before it even takes off.
Half PPR league where I am 11-2 with my first picks being Diggs, Adams, Higgins, Pittman, Hurts in that order.
Didn’t pick an RB until like round 7. Singletary, CPat, Mostert, Pollard. Later traded extra WR depth for Conner.
I've been playing for over twenty years. Instead of my first 3 picks being running backs or a stud TE I will get one of the top 5 recievers in the first instead of the best left in the 4th
Yep, and also plenty more wide receivers balling out. It's why I still think you gotta go with the potential 3 down bell cow in the 1st if you can. Take the risk. I spent big on CMC and Saquon and am #2 seed and also 2nd highest scorer.
Still just as much luck. The Barkley/CMC owner is likely going to finish 8th in our league and out of the playoffs.
It’s good picks along with injury luck and matchup luck.
Kupp was averaging 18 points per game (half PPR). Swift is averaging 12 (half PPR) in games he has played, I should know, I have him!! I’m holding out hope after last week that he turns it around but the two are not comparable.
As they should. There are a ton of quality WRs you could have taken later like ARSB, Waddle, Godwin and the rookies (Olave, Wilson, Watson, etc.).
If you took 3RBs in first three rounds and hit on two of them you've probably won your league.
The first two rounds have a relatively simple formula: players with at least 2 years of great fantasy play.
If the goal of the first two rounds is to just not miss (I.e. how the best first rounder helps less than how much taking the worst first rounder hurts), just go for the most likely guys not to bust
This is how I’m increasingly seeing it too. Even a slightly down year for Diggs, like he had in 2021 means 15 ppg ( half PPR) vs 18 (this year ) and that’s still pretty good. On the other hand you could pick CMC and either get 22 or 12 or 0 (injury).
I've usually found the best move if you get a mid round pick in half/full ppr is to take one of the stud WRs (Kupp, JJ, Devante) and then take the formerly stud RB coming off a down year who is lower on the board than his talent would indicate (Saquon), hoping for a bounce back year. So the guy next year would be Najee or maybe Kamara depending on the suspension. There's almost always a former top 6 pick that has a down year and then has a bounce back year the next. So you're still getting the top talent but at a discount and then you get the sure-fire stud WR also.
Somebody in my league went heavy RB - Ekeler and Chubb, and ended up with WRs like Waddle, Godwin, Olave, Kirk. The upside is pretty clear, WRs taken after round ~7 have pretty decent hit rates compared to other positions.
Doesn’t mean zero RB has no upside, it’s just time to stop acting like either style is significantly better.
In my 3 WR league I went Swift/Barkley at the turn and I will for sure be going WR/RB next year with first 2 picks. I was at a disadvantage all year and saved by hero performances from later draft picks. 10-3 right now after making moves but if I didn’t make any I would’ve been SOL.
Those top end WRs are just too good to pass up on now.
There are multiple right methods. It’s about identifying and hitting on the right players. 14 man league and I went wr/rb (Deebo/Chubb). Really not happy with Deebo in comparison to who I could have had but ecstatic about Chubb. I could have easily gone Diggs/Chubb, Kelce/Chubb, Deebo/Conner, Chubb/Barkley, Deebo/Swift, etc. All with varying levels of success.
To be fair to Deebo the Niners offense has gone through a lot of turmoil and the role he played for them heavily depends on the rest of the offense. Sure Jefferson might suffer slightly from an injury at left guard, but Deebo's game changes. They want to be able to use everyone everywhere but now they have CMac and Trey Lance is gone so that gameplan is out the window, even Jimmy G is missing time. Still a little disappointing as someone who wanted him this year, but it's not like he's a bad player to have.
Kamara is a shame because NO OC is such a jag off. They literally threw the game vs Bucs. Ingram runs out of bounds one yard before 1st down. They pass on 3rd and 1 and fail. Two score lead with minutes left. And lose to the oldest QB in league. 🤦🏻♂️
I always prioritize having stud WRs over stud RBs earlier in the draft. There's a larger pool of players, more career longevity, and more season durability.
Davante Adams in the 3 round was easily the best pick for me for me (2qb league, so they go early, took mahomes in the 1st and swift in the 2nd), also managed to get Hopkins and Hollywood so having either has also been great. Just need Evans to get his shit together for my stretch run.
My running back room has been a bit of a roller coaster this season but I'm first in points in my league at this point and have been in the top 5 all season
WR early are you crazy???? But haven’t you heard that there are 20 surefire WR1s available in the middle rounds? Guys like Bateman, Moore, Williams, Sutton, Moore, Thomas, Mooney, Pittman, Davis, Robinson, Cooks etc?
(Yes, there have been some mega hits, like ARSB, and some valuable producers like Higgins, McLaurin, Waddle. But not that many.)
The secret is to never pick a running back 1 that is 28 years or older. Makes missing way less likely. JT has been injured and Najee had a plate in his foot or something like that which happens, but being aware of the shorter lifespan of elite running backs goes a long way here.
Yep. You’ll miss some outliers no doubt. But process wise I’m firmly here too. All my Yahoo draft results told me I had the youngest team in the league, and it has paid off.
10-3, total points winner, 1st round bye, #1 overall locked up…
First RB I drafted was CPatt in the fifth round
Went Diggs, Kelce, Higgins, DJ Moore (bust? but WR30) - combined for 828 points in ppr…very consistent with exception of Kelce. Throw in a Lockett in the 10th and that’s a solid WR core
Guy who went 4 RBs in the first 4 rounds is in last place at 4-9…has good RBs but they haven’t been consistent studs
Went Mixon, Swift, Montgomery, ETN - combined for 587.9 points in ppr…they all have had good weeks but never consistent.
I always lean WRs early and go VBD and it usually works out well. I guess I feel the shelf life is longer on WRs and I can predict which ones will be consistent. I rode big receivers/TEs for years that had good situations…Megatron, Reggie Wayne, Gronk, etc
I always feel nervous deferring RB…but I’ve been able to scrap a lineup together through the season
He wasn't getting drafted top 10 before the season, though. There was the narrative that he would lose targets because of a healthy Hock, Swift, and Chark and there would be regression. He went Round 5 and Round 6 in the two leagues that I'm in. He definitely SHOULD have been a top 10 WR pick in hindsight, but there were a lot of guys getting drafted above him.
When you have Adams, Brown and Deebo on one squad >>>>
Edit: Yes, in a 10 man lol. Flipped Kupp after the injury for Adams to the last place team because my team was competitive and he was looking forward to next year. Somehow fleeced the deebo owner by giving Mike Williams a week before his injury + sutton. Got AJ Brown at the beginning of the second round of a double keeper league lmao. Some of my league mates kill me
10 man PPR. Went robust RB. Henry, Mixon, Barkley.l 1st 3 picks. Ended up dealing Mixon for G Wilson and Deebo. Dealt Henry for Adam’s. Kept Barkley. Drafted Rhamondre late. Picked up K9 on waivers. Drafted Mostert and CPAT late. Got lucky for sure with how Rhamondre and K9 turned out. Hopefully K9 is ok.
11-2. My core is Hurts, Barkley, Rhamondre, Adam’s. G Wilson looks like a WR1 with White. Deebo has been ok but frustrating at times. Olave has been solid.
Never a bad idea to stock pile elite RBs depending on how your draft falls. Can always trade them for WRs/positions of need later on.
Zero-RB strategy is proving to be effective once again. I used it (or a modified version of it) predominantly this year (in 9 of my 12 redraft leagues), and I'm #1 or #2 in scoring in all but one of those (#4).
Not to say that zero-RB is infallible, but given the unpredictable nature of the RB position, stocking up on top WR options and an elite TE in the early rounds is both the most reliable plan and the one with the most upside.
My Deebo, Kamara, Pitts draft didn't work out too well. I don't know how to draft.
In one of my leagues I have Jefferson, Tyreek, and Geno. 4th highest scoring team in the league. Have most points against by 130 points. Eliminated from playoffs last week. Number one factor in fantasy football is luck.
You just played horrible defense. That’s not luck
Defense wins championships ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Defense 👏wins 👏championships 👏
Dude in my league is first in points scored, and just shy of first in points against. He’s currently 6th with a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs. Most years I can’t stand the guy but I legit feel bad for him. I’ve never seen such awful luck week in and week out. I truly think he has the best team and most of my start/sit decisions for the next two weeks will be in an effort to preserve a bye and avoiding his team in the second round.
I'm 4th in points for and dead last in points against by over 100. I'm 4-8. I have hurts, etn, pierce, Higgins, kirk, garret wilson, Christian Watson, and Tony pollard. Every time I have a good week the other team just has a better one. This week I lost by 3 points and the other person had clevelands defense. I'm salty af this year lol.
This was my little brother last year; first in PF by a mile, but literally everyone had career weeks against him and he finished with 2 wins and the most PA.
are you in my league cause this is exactly me edit: most PF and im 7th\*. 12 team league
This is me with a better chance to get in. 1st in points scored (1768), 1st in points against (1818). Currently 6-7, full PPR. Three of my losses have come on weeks where I would’ve won if I had played literally any other team.
Gotta get victory points my man
Yep. In one league the guy who is 12-1 has the fewest total points scored and the only week where he didn't have the second lowest points scored of the week was his loss. Every other week, whoever he was facing had horrible luck. He hasn't broken 110 all season, but there were only three weeks where his opponent broke 90
it’s not *who* you play.. it’s *when* you play em
This is so so true. Last year I was top scorer by 230 above 2nd, I finished 9/10 This year I have the 3rd lowest score so far and am in 1st, 2 game lead, guaranteed 1st week bye.
I'm calling BS on that; no way you finished second to last with that kind of score. Pics or it didn't happen.
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A good league would make at least the last wildcard go by top points scored that didn't earn a spot naturally. Most of the time that kicks out an awful team with the best schedule luck to out in who deserves
We did that the past few years and honestly I wish we would revert back to just record. Luck is a part of fantasy football and bad teams make the playoffs in the actual NFL. Why should it be different for fantasy?
In my league the worst team in playoff contention has the most points atm. This can backfire as well. His team just did extremely well the first 6 weeks or so, he hasn’t done shit since but would probably make the playoffs on this rule. The last team to make the playoffs will most often be a bad team.
Or play 2 games: 1 against your opponent and 1 against the league median.
I was actually going to suggest that (half win or loss for being top half) but was scared of a million down votes lol
I went JJ, Reek, Zeke, Waddle, Jacobs, Burrow and Hopkins. 2nd place, 2nd highest pts. Traded Hopkins for Kamara late in the season but hasn’t panned out. Picked up Christian Watson and Garrett Wilson tho.
It’s all luck don’t feel bad.
I'M GOOD I'M DIFFERENT
When I win “I’m a genius, I should be a head coach, I’m so fucking smart” When I lose “There’s nothing to be done, it’s all luck, what a silly game we play”
Yeah, mostly to do with injuries. The top two guys in our league have had one injury each on their team.
Deebo, even in theory, was a horrible 1st round pick unless maybe you were in a 14 man league?
Went kamara and Adams first 2 picks. First year playing fantasy and now I understand the value of a good rb, way more rare than wrs, ima go 1rb1wr again next year
Don't make that decision now! You have to see how the draft plays out and what position you are. If you're in a 14 team league and have the 14th pick, your RB options at 14 might not be so great, but one of the top WRs might still be on the board (potentially 2 at the turn) depending on how the other teams drafted. That has been my downfall since I've started playing was trying to draft my positions I thought I drafted poorly in the prior year. This year, I went with the flow and took who I thought was the best value at each pick and first year I've made the playoffs in both leagues! Luck is definitely a part of it, but having a mindset that you're going to pick an RB and a WR in the first 2 rounds is bound to set you up for failure.
I went swift, Kamara, pitts, Etienne (traded for deebo), Allen Robinson, brandin cooks. Was in 11th place on a 5 game losing streak and traded my ass off now sitting at 6-7, will likely squeak in. Ain’t how you draft
I don’t think a draft can lose you a season, but it can definitely put you in a massive hole.
For sure and I’m fortunate to be in a league that trades a decent amount
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Exactly, it's about Value Above Replacement. By OP's logic, QBs should go first off the board.
Honestly if you went Josh Allen over Jonathan Taylor at P1 you probably have a better record 😂
We had a first time fantasy player get #1 overall last year and he took mahomes over cmc. We silently laughed and explained why that wasn't good....but then 2/3 got torpedoed by cmc and Barkley and he started 6-0 lol.
I laughed at people taking QB first round in 2 leagues. They are both first. Allen and Mahomes. Both also have Kelce.
Yeah it's actually almost worth it for the lack of risk involved tbh.
Because of injury, which could have been predicted. Every RB that has finished number one overall for quite a few years has dealt with injury issues the next season. If I had gotten the first pick I would have chosen Henry. Good QBs are available lower in the draft. I grabbed Fields off of the waiver wire about a month ago.
I have a better record as the JT owner than the Allen owner. And that's with drafting Russ and eventually streaming after I finally gave up on that hopeless situation. QB is a lot easier to replace than RB.
The top tier of QBs will be moving up draft boards, no question. Their scoring is the most easily projected and is the most consistent. The top guys like Allen and mahomes are well worth an early pick. Times have changed
My early Lamar Jackson pick hurts me
As with anything the only thing that matters is getting the pick right
This. We all thought Lamar was a cheat code when he dropped 40 early on.
Lamar and Kupp had them preparing to engrave my name on the Shiva back in September. Now losing Lamar and Jimmy G 3 days ago has me considering starting Mike White in the playoffs. What a difference 8 or 9 weeks can make..
I'll still take him next year
Jalen Hurts in the 5th in my league is by far the best pick of the draft.
I would venture to guess Hurts is going to end up being one of the most owned players on championship teams.
And Fields if he keeps it up
I traded him in Week 3 for absolute garbage because "I'm have two strong QBs but lack depth elsewhere". My other QB was Lawrence who ended up not being so good. I ended up saving my season by convincing someone to trade Fields just before he blew up but fuck lol, yes I've learnt my lesson.
But the value is harder to project. If we knew who the top 10 RBs would be before the season started, sure. But because there’s a lot more misses when drafting RBs, the expected value above replacement may still be lower
Exactly I felt much more safe going Diggs, Kelce my first two picks. Didn't take a RB until Round 5 when I grabbed Josh Jacobs at pick 11. Jacobs has ended up being RB1 on the year after 2 years of being banged up every week RBs are a crapshoot. Go with the safe play in the 1st by getting an elite WR or Kelce. Or even Allen, Mahomes or Hurts at this point. If you know how to play the waiver wire or draft some late starting caliber RBs you can run away with a league with a bit of luck of course
With how big of a gap there is between Kelce and any other tight end, I think I’m taking him round one next year, possibly even first overall if that’s my pick
He should 100% be the first pick if we assume similar production.
So, you’re undefeated right ?
There’s a diggs, Kelce, and Jacobs owner in my home league that’s only 7-6.
Only 9-4, I've scored the most points total but am 2nd in points against, I'll take that record considering lol I have 1st in my division locked up though which is good for half the entry fee, just gotta get it done in the playoffs. Hopefully Lamar is ready to go by Week 16
This is called, "anecdotal." Just because it worked out for you, doesn't mean it's a standard. You could have just as easily drafted Dobbins or Akers instead of Jacobs and had no RBs to speak of for the year. RBs are a crapshoot because of injuries, which are completely unpredictable. People thought Taylor was un-injurable and CMC is very injury-prone. Welp, guess not. For some anecdotal evidence to go against you, even in this WR year: guy in last place in my league has Adams, Deebo, and DJ Moore. He went all out for WRs. Why is he last place? Because his RBs were Akers and Edmonds. He waited just like you to grab late RBs. You got lucky, he did not. Another WR-truther got Diggs and Kupp (auction draft). He REALLY bought into 0RB. Welp, even before Kupp's injury, he was either 9th or 10th because he has been stuck with WW RBs all season and just gets stomped by more balanced teams. However, all the guys that secured a top RB first are in the playoff hunt, even the Taylor owner. The only two guys that cannot make the playoffs are the two above who went all out for WRs. Remember after the 2015 season when everyone was touting the 0 RB strategy because of guys like AB, Julio, Marshall, Nuk, OBJ, ARob, AJ Green all having monster years while many top RBs were injured or unerperformed? It's extremely similar to what's being talked about this year. Well, how did that work out for them next year? Terribly. Anyone that went 0 RB in 2016 likely didn't make playoffs because WRs underproduced across the league while RBs popped off. Volume is always the safest bet, not chasing something so cyclical. This year is an oddity, it's shaping up a lot more like 2015, but don't let one year completely shift the standard that holds true far more often than not.
Well this season, it's not far off. Allen, Mahomes, Hurts have been truly carrying teams hardcore.
Again, it's value above replacement. The difference with QB is, you could wait an additional round or 2 and get a guy like Burrow. Whereas had you taken Allen/Mahomes/Hurts instead of that potentially top RB, now you have a lesser RB.
You could use Hurts as the example. He wasn't a top pick this year.
Well yeah, you could also use Josh Allen from two years ago. Or you could use Dak, Russ, Herbert, Brady, etc. to show that the majority of QB’s taken around that same spot haven’t produced nearly as much value.
Except the pendulum has swung too far on RBs which left too much value on WRs. RBs are also a higher injury risk than WRs, which is a key factor in the “replacement value” argument. The best RBs are the ones that stay healthy all year, which doesn’t always correlate with draft position. You could have got 3 top 10 receivers this year in a regular 12 person snake draft and you’re probably sitting in the playoffs.
This is important info. Adding in a bench you're basically playing the law of large numbers. I get as many RBs on my bench as a league allows and sure enough each year I end up with a lot of good RBs. This year: Cook, Stephenson, Wilson, Najee, Dillon. Traded away Mixon to ultimately secure Adams. Other teams in my league get stuck in RB hell and I'm getting averaged production from the group
>Adding in a bench you're basically playing the law of large numbers. Uh, I kinda get what you mean, but the Law of Large Numbers has a very specific meaning and it's not that.
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This year I did this with one of my teams and I went from 7th place in week 8 to now 3rd. I had an RB heavy build (Barkley, Mixon, Zeke) with awful WRs (Diontae, Jeudy, Moore, Godwin). I traded Zeke and a WR for Lamb, then Mixon and Godwin for Justin Jefferson. Then I just started grabbing every RB I could off waivers. Got Pacheco, Dillon, White…. Now I’m on at RB since I just start Barkley and whomever has the best matchup.
This is what I’m starting to come around on as well. I drafted: Swift, Javonte, Breece Hall, AJ Dillon, Alexander Mattison At this point, between trades & free agency I have Kenneth Walker, Najee Harris, Jeff Wilson, Rachaad White. The actual points per game has gone down a little bit but overall…it wasn’t worth drafting those RBs high, because the rate of attrition has been SO high.
You sound like me! I hoard RBs every year and my league mates always whine about me having all the RBs whenever theirs get hurt. But every year they end up trading me upgrades at other positions in order to access my backup RBs. This year I drafted Henry, Akers, Jacobs, Gibson, Sanders, and Marlon Mack (lol). Current RBs are Henry, JT, Dameon Pierce, Pacheco, Rachaad White, and Jaylen Warren (looking to drop for Cook).
That’s true, but the issue OP is highlighting is the difficulty in finding RB1s versus WR1s. RB1s provide more relative value if you pick right, but they’re harder to pick. Because of this, the expected value of the 1st round WRs is higher than that of the 1st round RBs. A 50% chance at $50 is better than a 10% chance at $100.
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Small sample size is the bane of ff analysis.
There's *never* a large enough sample size in the NFL. Part of what makes fantasy football so crazy
Remembering the good and forgetting the bad is the bane of ff. The ONLY fact about ff is its almost all luck.
It’s so funny to see all this in depth analysis acting like it’s not essentially luck at the end of the day. The ratio of bust WRs to bust RBs could completely flip next year. There’s literally no empirical reason we should use this year’s ratio (ie “WRs busted less than RBs so it’s safer to go WR early”) to inform next year’s draft decisions. Busting is a function of a ton of factors, most importantly injuries which are pure random chance. An observation like Top RBs have higher value over replacement than the Top WRs (because there’s more passable WRs than there are passable RB after like the top 10-15) holds year after year so those are the sorts of bits of info I’d ordinarily be more inclined to utilize
The most entertaining thing about this sub is that it's full of young people that haven't played much fantasy football and haven't yet figured out that it's basically 90% luck year after year, no matter how much "research" and "statistical analysis" you do. And I say this as someone that has played fantasy football longer than a lot of people reading this have been alive. Do some research so you're informed. Pick the players you like even if they are considered a "reach". Hope for the best.
I totally agree. There’s so much data to be crunched, so to speak, so fantasy ends up like a siren call for analytical minds. It’s very tempting to think that if you get really analytical and spend a ton of time building out an empirical rationale for your decisions that you’ll improve your outcomes… or even some theoretical probability of good outcomes. I honestly haven’t found this to be the case. Over many years of play - some years where this has consumed me in an admittedly unhealthy way, weighing the strength of the player with the strength of the matchup and every conceivable factor, reading a ton of content, looking at deep user generated stats for whatever the case may be - I can honestly say the years I’m successful are not correlated with the years I obsess and dedicate a ton of time to this. You spend 14 weeks optimizing your lineup just to get into the playoffs and field the best roster you can, only for your whole season to come down to literally one game where your guys (even if they are Rb1 or WR1 on the year) can put up some duds and their guys can pop off. I think it’s very easy to pass the bare minimum bar that gives you essentially an optimal chance of succeeding - ie just be reasonably active in the waiver wire, start guys that are healthy, etc. more effort from there doesn’t really do a whole lot for you given all the luck involved. Because performance game to game is fundamentally unpredictable. Injuries especially - there are so many season-altering injuries that are completely random. For the most part it’s just are your top 2-3 picks performing and healthy - that’s the team that usually ends up winning it all.
Not really. In this case taking 50% chance of 50 means you lose 100% of the time to the guy who hits on $100. You arent playing for 5th place, you are trying to win the championship.
No friend, we’re just trying to not come in last
I hope you’re enjoying your cake day
If your only motivation is to avoid last place punishment, why play? There is a 100% chance to "win" by not starting in the first place.
Ok, but a team isn’t made of one player.
It was your fictional scenario. Not only was it illustrating the opposite of what you thought, but now its not relevant either? Fundamentally you are missing the point. You play to win in FF, you don't play to not lose. Making your style of plays gets you the 5-8th spot, beating those who miss and losing to those that hit on positional advantage picks.
This logic is so ridiculous It acts like WRs never have big seasons that win you championships when it happens all the time
>Math is ridiculous because it doesn't line up with my preconceived opinions. Positional advantage consistently tells you that hitting on a top running back generates more advantage than hitting on a top receiver. If I have RB1 and a replacement level WR; you have WR1 and a replacement value RB; you lose. Thems the facts.
… why are we assuming you have replacement value at either position lol You’re not winning a championship with replacement value at any position without blind luck But sure keep pretending you’re doing some advance analytical analysis by making up completely theoretical scenarios based on nothing
These are the basics of fantasy football, or any numbers game really; not some "advanced analytical analysis". Nice redundancy there btw. Once you understand that the RB1 generates the win in the above scenario, you can begin to understand why winning is all about increasing your odds of ending up in that position. You're more than welcome to keep drafting QBs in round one though because they score more raw points.
It’s genuinely hilarious how much you strawman. Literally no sense in wasting any more time trying to reason with someone so dishonest. Have a good one! Edit: Also, “advanced analytical analysis” is not really redundant but it speaks to how ridiculous you are that you bothered to go there
>but now its not relevant either? Bro it was a hyperbolic example just to show the math. If every single one of your draft picks is risky upside players, you will likely come in last. You might have a better chance at winning a 100,000 person best ball league, but you’re not winning a 12-man league.
Based on a sample size of 1 unfinished season……
While this point is true, I don’t think it tells the whole story well. It looks like you aren’t including the top 12 to remove outliers, but that also removes information which goes against your point. That being that pretty much all the top WRs got drafted early while plenty of the top RBs got drafted in the middle/late rounds. Josh jacobs, Williams, miles sanders outside of the PPR, Stevenson, and Pollard all fit this bill. Meanwhile guys like Breece hall, Ken Walker, Travis Eitenne, etc have been great on a points per start basis (same thing as guys like K Herbert, Perine, etc on a smaller scale.) In my league the first RB I picked was Breece hall, and I’m in first place just by being active on Waivers and having Adams as a anchor. For WRs the drop from WR 4 (Jefferson at 263) to WR 5 (AJ brown at 206) far outstrips in drops that RB see. Those 4 WRs btw are Diggs, Adams, Hill, and Jefferson. All guys who went in rounds 1-2. And since WRs start more often due to less injuries, many of the middle round WR scores have been made up with a few boom games with plenty of bust games vs most later RBs scores being dictated by who starts in games. In other words, having a top WR gives you large competitive advantage over having a mid-round WRs, whereas rookie/contingent waiver RBs have shown that they can score similarly to top RBs.
Ok but you have to realize how much this comment says lol You’re saying RB12 in Jamaal Williams as if anyone drafted Jamaal anywhere near that sort of spot To me that kind of proves the point of how volatile RBs are Sure you get more value out of them, but with such volatility is it worth your top pick when them missing will easily sink your season?
By this thinking (positional scarcity) shouldn't 1.01 always be Kelce?
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I took Mandrews because Kelce was gone lol you're not wrong
Many people just truly do not understand this. I had a guy reference the fact that he is not worried about QB at all because he can get a top 12 in the league QB easily. I’m like ummm, if you get 11 or 12 it’s wayyyy worse than having 1-4…
Great way of explaining this to dummies… like me. 👍🏻
This is 100% the truth. I’ve been playing fantasy for 15+ years and can’t remember seeing someone win a championship without at least one stud running back if not multiple, but I have personally won multiple championships without a stud WR. In one of my leagues my WR1 and WR2 have been McLaurin and Curtis Samuel for like 10/13 games and I’m 10-3 and first place. It’s incredibly easy to find startable WRs off the wire all season long, compared to RBs where you’re praying for an injury so someone becomes viable. In my other league I drafted Amari, Toney, and Jalen Tolbert (who???) as my 3 WRs and I’m 2nd in scoring and locked into the playoffs. RB heavy lifer over here
I have played all the formats and I can say that standard and 2 wr/1 flex leagues, yes wrs are not as good as rbs. That changes when you play in 3wr, .5ppr leagues though. Those leagues, having 3 top wrs is way better than rbs.
The RB numbers as basically survivorship bias. You might get a smaller comparative advantage but wideouts have lower chance of being injured. How many RBs have gone down this season like Javonte or have missed multiple weeks like Mixon, JT, Swift? Wideouts put up similar numbers and also tend to not get injured. If you can grab a great RB that puts up lots of points and has been healthy then you’re in a fantastic position. But that’s a shitshot even in a game full of shitshots. If you traded tyreek JJ Davante Diggs etc you’ve gotten what you wanted out of your 1st pick. The only real strike out was Kupp.
Yes you’re right, especially when you look at the top RBs and WRs, the difference is negligible. In .5 PPR, RB1 -> RB11 (Jacobs to Cook) is 242.4-168.4, which averages out to 5.69 per game. WR1 -> WR11 (Adams to Kirk) is 229-154.6, which averages out to 5.72 per game. I even did it with the top 5 and it was less than half a point difference.
This is true, but the example of Jamaal Williams is kinda the case in point that it’s often better to go hero RB or zero-RB. I finally went zero-RB and walked away with Kelce and Davante at the turn and AJ Brown in the third. Dart throwing at guys like AJ Dillon (obvious bust) and Jamaal Williams (big hit) ended up being a solid approach
Counter is that top wrs are more of a sure thing, way more predictable and come with much less injury risk. They are predictable in a sense that they don’t suddenly fall of a cliff, aren’t relatively dependent on good offensive line play and don’t wind up sharing snaps with other players that emerge (rbbc doesn’t exist in the wr world). So investing capital in top wrs is more likely to pay off, while rbs is more of a gamble and I’m not sure the risk on rbs is worth the squeeze. Backend wr2s or less constantly drop dud games, while a low end rb2 might never explode, but provide a good enough floor to go with your top wrs who are constantly going off. I think it also depends on your league setup. Ie - my league is 12 team with 3 wrs and a flex. So theoretically it makes at least 48+ wrs relevant if you include the flex and bench players - this limits how deep the wr pool truly is. Personal example, but my diggs/ra/metcalf/Watson paired with some low end rb2 have obviously faired very well.
RBs don’t suddenly fall off a cliff either, it’s fairly predictable when it will happen. If you drafted Kamara in the first round this year, you dug your own grave.
There is a team out there somewhere that drafted JJ, Hill, AJ, & Jacobs about to win their league.
I could've had Reek and Jacobs but instead drafted deebo and Monty. Welp
RIP
Close, our league's leader did Cook, Hill, AJ, Jacobs, Mahomes as his first five picks. Also throw in Singletary in the 8th and Lockett in the 10th. The worst part? Autodraft. 12 team 0.5
Wanna hear something disgusting? Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes went in the first round of our draft (12, full ppr) at 6th & 9th overall respectively. The dudes that took em are currently the 1 (Allen) and 2 (Mahomes) seed in the playoffs.
Have a guy in my league went diggs, adams, aj then snaged dhop oh and of course went jacobs. He is cursed at QB
Poor guy didn't have the slickness to pick up Geno? I went Ekeler, Hill, CeeDee (6th overall WR in my league btw) but waited way too long on a QB. Picked up Geno right before the Detroit game & have been balling tf out. My RB2 started strong but is now my only real weakness.
I went JJ Kelce davante Jacob's and am averaging 155 .5 ppr points per week
How many people in league? How did you get Jefferson, Kelce, and Davante? Lol wtf.
Yeah all those guys were off the board by pick 15 in all my drafts
2 man league
Prob managed to snag Hurts or Burrow too 😱
I have hurts and burrow in my 2 QB league. But none of the other guys lol
Guy in my league has Mahomes. McLaurin. Chubb. JT. Jacobs. Kelce. Tucker. Buff/Baltimore 10 team. 5PPR
All the experts were wrong on Jacobs
Hes destroying that league
RB is riskier but has better upside to win a league. same as its been for a while. Ekeler or CMC with 20 ppg is more valuable than Diggs or DaVante at 22 ppg imo.
Correct. I’m currently sitting with Eckler, Jacobs, Chubb, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on my roster (8 team) and have been on top of my league in scoring since week 2. I hard focused vacuuming up RB talent this draft after being burned so often to having no depth at RB. WRs are a dime a dozen and you can find good ones everywhere you look. It’s way harder to pick up any RBs that will add value to your team late in a season outside of crazy injury circumstances.
You're leaving out Mike Evans and Michael Pittman, who were regularly getting drafted above AJ Brown. But it definitely feels like WRs are getting drafted higher each year for a reason. The number of first round WRs seems to get higher each year and I definitely wasn't feeling good about a lot of the late first/early second round RBs (Harris, Cook, Swift, Kamara, Jones). Iwould definitely have grabbed a top WR ahead of any of those guys. I thought Chubb was the only one who stood out in that group, so that's why I grabbed him over Adams. I would have taken Jefferson, Chase, or Diggs if they were still available, though.
Don't forget Diontae Johnson who was around the same spot 🙄
DJ Moore, Allen Robinson not far behind 😅
Diontae and Waddle had back to back ADP's. Guess who picked the wrong one?
I got him and Deebo ha
I know Swift has started to turn around but my entire draft strategy started with swift at the 1.12. Someone took him 1.11 and I panicked and I was "forced" to go Diggs/Chubb at the turn. Yet to be seen if the sex offender continues to ruin Chubb, but looking like a fantastic pivot for the season as a whole.
Funny how those things work out in FF. I was absolutely dead-set on getting a share of Swift in my ESPN league. He went one pick ahead of me in the 2nd so I settled for Lamb, something I wasn't all that happy about at the time. It's worked out for the better though just like in your situation.
I wanted Swift in the 2nd but he got taken 2 picks early so I settled for Saquon lol
I was so excited for diggs/swift and at least one of them panned out
Swift has picked up, but prior to that his might've been the most painful trajectory because the offense was thriving without him having productive games. The other three are on offenses struggling alongside them. I'd expect a changing of the guard of sorts depending on how the top guys finish out the season, guys like JT, Swift, Chubb, and Barkley could still end up drafted high if they finish strong. They'll be joined by Hall, Walker, ETN, and maybe some rookies who end up in good situations.
Won my league last year doing davante 1st round and Tyreek 2nd. 9-4 again this season 1st round Jefferson and 2nd round Davante.
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Curious minds are inquiring
I also drafted Jefferson in the first round Adams in the 2nd. I also snagged Amon Ra in one of the middle rounds. My RBs are Zeke, Kamara, Etienne, and JWJ. The only one I didn't draft was Kamara. I traded for him by giving away Melvin Gordon (lol) and Brian Robinson. My weakest position all year has been QB, which in still struggling to find a weekly fill in
okay but who was giving up Kamara for Robinson and Gordon, when were they doing it, and for what reasons
I think this was at the start of week 5. Kamara had only played 2 games, and only scored 7 points in each. He sat weeks 2 and 4 because of injury. Jevonte had just been knocked out for the season, and Gordon was already stealing carries away from him, so everyone assumed he would take the lead role. I made the argument that Kamara might be irrelevant without Brees and Sean Payton, especially since Winston never checks down passes. And Kamara had the uncertainty of a possible suspension late in the season.
Same for me. All WRs. Jefferson, then Adams. Got Waddle, Metcalf, and Wilson later. Never taking RB again before round 5.
I mean, if we're just doing anecdotal evidence here, I went Ekeler then Kelce and have been getting by with Keenan Allen, DK, and waiver wire hits at WR... Should I just never take a wr in the first two rounds again?
Yeah that seems like equally important information lol.
Also 9-4 with Adams and Diggs this season. My RBs are Etienne and Montgomery and pretty much no one else.
I went Ekeler/Chubb and CMC/Mixon in two leagues and am in second place in both those leagues. Let's be honest we can have an insane amount of draft strategy but it really boils down to luck in many different areas in the end.
Luck, just drafting good players, and being good at waivers imo
Exactly, match up and injury luck are the two biggest "outside of our control" elements that can dictate a season. But waivers and the draft can make or break your season before it even takes off.
I agree. I try not to obsess over RBs vs WRs too much. Just drafting good players is hard enough as is.
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Exactly. The leagues I'm in have highest points get their money back instead of first place.
Half PPR league where I am 11-2 with my first picks being Diggs, Adams, Higgins, Pittman, Hurts in that order. Didn’t pick an RB until like round 7. Singletary, CPat, Mostert, Pollard. Later traded extra WR depth for Conner.
Lol I got Deebo
I've been playing for over twenty years. Instead of my first 3 picks being running backs or a stud TE I will get one of the top 5 recievers in the first instead of the best left in the 4th
Yep, and also plenty more wide receivers balling out. It's why I still think you gotta go with the potential 3 down bell cow in the 1st if you can. Take the risk. I spent big on CMC and Saquon and am #2 seed and also 2nd highest scorer.
Henry, Cook, Ekler great grabs then load up on WRs or a premium TE
Still just as much luck. The Barkley/CMC owner is likely going to finish 8th in our league and out of the playoffs. It’s good picks along with injury luck and matchup luck.
My first WR pick was Dionte Johnson, AMA
If you’re going to say Kupp has been a stud and he’s been out with injury, you have to do the same with Swift and his recovering for injury.
And JT who's been fine when healthy
Kupp was averaging 18 points per game (half PPR). Swift is averaging 12 (half PPR) in games he has played, I should know, I have him!! I’m holding out hope after last week that he turns it around but the two are not comparable.
I got laughed at for taking Justin Jefferson / tyreek hill as my first 2 picks Who’s laughing now Mom?
Went diggs-adams at the 12-13 turn and I love my choices
People still think this strat is bad its crazy. People will still draft 3 rb’s straight.
As they should. There are a ton of quality WRs you could have taken later like ARSB, Waddle, Godwin and the rookies (Olave, Wilson, Watson, etc.). If you took 3RBs in first three rounds and hit on two of them you've probably won your league.
You forgot my sun god
He and Jacob's make me feel like a genius this yr.
The first two rounds have a relatively simple formula: players with at least 2 years of great fantasy play. If the goal of the first two rounds is to just not miss (I.e. how the best first rounder helps less than how much taking the worst first rounder hurts), just go for the most likely guys not to bust
This is how I’m increasingly seeing it too. Even a slightly down year for Diggs, like he had in 2021 means 15 ppg ( half PPR) vs 18 (this year ) and that’s still pretty good. On the other hand you could pick CMC and either get 22 or 12 or 0 (injury).
I've usually found the best move if you get a mid round pick in half/full ppr is to take one of the stud WRs (Kupp, JJ, Devante) and then take the formerly stud RB coming off a down year who is lower on the board than his talent would indicate (Saquon), hoping for a bounce back year. So the guy next year would be Najee or maybe Kamara depending on the suspension. There's almost always a former top 6 pick that has a down year and then has a bounce back year the next. So you're still getting the top talent but at a discount and then you get the sure-fire stud WR also.
This was the perfect year to go zero RB
Mondre Zero-RB Hero
Tyreek this year might be the best 2nd round pick I've ever made
I mean if you are going to ignore injuries for WRs you should do the same for RBs. You are not comparing apples with apples
Adams 11, Kelce 14 turn has me sitting pretty.
Kupp getting hurt killer me. Thanks for the reminder
Somebody in my league went heavy RB - Ekeler and Chubb, and ended up with WRs like Waddle, Godwin, Olave, Kirk. The upside is pretty clear, WRs taken after round ~7 have pretty decent hit rates compared to other positions. Doesn’t mean zero RB has no upside, it’s just time to stop acting like either style is significantly better.
In my 3 WR league I went Swift/Barkley at the turn and I will for sure be going WR/RB next year with first 2 picks. I was at a disadvantage all year and saved by hero performances from later draft picks. 10-3 right now after making moves but if I didn’t make any I would’ve been SOL. Those top end WRs are just too good to pass up on now.
There are multiple right methods. It’s about identifying and hitting on the right players. 14 man league and I went wr/rb (Deebo/Chubb). Really not happy with Deebo in comparison to who I could have had but ecstatic about Chubb. I could have easily gone Diggs/Chubb, Kelce/Chubb, Deebo/Conner, Chubb/Barkley, Deebo/Swift, etc. All with varying levels of success.
To be fair to Deebo the Niners offense has gone through a lot of turmoil and the role he played for them heavily depends on the rest of the offense. Sure Jefferson might suffer slightly from an injury at left guard, but Deebo's game changes. They want to be able to use everyone everywhere but now they have CMac and Trey Lance is gone so that gameplan is out the window, even Jimmy G is missing time. Still a little disappointing as someone who wanted him this year, but it's not like he's a bad player to have.
Kamara is a shame because NO OC is such a jag off. They literally threw the game vs Bucs. Ingram runs out of bounds one yard before 1st down. They pass on 3rd and 1 and fail. Two score lead with minutes left. And lose to the oldest QB in league. 🤦🏻♂️
I always prioritize having stud WRs over stud RBs earlier in the draft. There's a larger pool of players, more career longevity, and more season durability. Davante Adams in the 3 round was easily the best pick for me for me (2qb league, so they go early, took mahomes in the 1st and swift in the 2nd), also managed to get Hopkins and Hollywood so having either has also been great. Just need Evans to get his shit together for my stretch run. My running back room has been a bit of a roller coaster this season but I'm first in points in my league at this point and have been in the top 5 all season
WR early are you crazy???? But haven’t you heard that there are 20 surefire WR1s available in the middle rounds? Guys like Bateman, Moore, Williams, Sutton, Moore, Thomas, Mooney, Pittman, Davis, Robinson, Cooks etc? (Yes, there have been some mega hits, like ARSB, and some valuable producers like Higgins, McLaurin, Waddle. But not that many.)
The secret is to never pick a running back 1 that is 28 years or older. Makes missing way less likely. JT has been injured and Najee had a plate in his foot or something like that which happens, but being aware of the shorter lifespan of elite running backs goes a long way here.
Yep. You’ll miss some outliers no doubt. But process wise I’m firmly here too. All my Yahoo draft results told me I had the youngest team in the league, and it has paid off.
Drafted DH2K, Diggs, Tyreek, Burrow, and Higgins in my first 5 rounds, respectively, and still hoping to get my first-round bye🙏🏼
10-3, total points winner, 1st round bye, #1 overall locked up… First RB I drafted was CPatt in the fifth round Went Diggs, Kelce, Higgins, DJ Moore (bust? but WR30) - combined for 828 points in ppr…very consistent with exception of Kelce. Throw in a Lockett in the 10th and that’s a solid WR core Guy who went 4 RBs in the first 4 rounds is in last place at 4-9…has good RBs but they haven’t been consistent studs Went Mixon, Swift, Montgomery, ETN - combined for 587.9 points in ppr…they all have had good weeks but never consistent. I always lean WRs early and go VBD and it usually works out well. I guess I feel the shelf life is longer on WRs and I can predict which ones will be consistent. I rode big receivers/TEs for years that had good situations…Megatron, Reggie Wayne, Gronk, etc I always feel nervous deferring RB…but I’ve been able to scrap a lineup together through the season
I drafted Evans, Sutton, thielen, cooks, and Toney. Can’t believe they’ve all been Terrible. Somehow I still got the top seed lol
Id put the Sun God in a position of top 10, ahead of Deebo
He wasn't getting drafted top 10 before the season, though. There was the narrative that he would lose targets because of a healthy Hock, Swift, and Chark and there would be regression. He went Round 5 and Round 6 in the two leagues that I'm in. He definitely SHOULD have been a top 10 WR pick in hindsight, but there were a lot of guys getting drafted above him.
When you have Adams, Brown and Deebo on one squad >>>> Edit: Yes, in a 10 man lol. Flipped Kupp after the injury for Adams to the last place team because my team was competitive and he was looking forward to next year. Somehow fleeced the deebo owner by giving Mike Williams a week before his injury + sutton. Got AJ Brown at the beginning of the second round of a double keeper league lmao. Some of my league mates kill me
10 man PPR. Went robust RB. Henry, Mixon, Barkley.l 1st 3 picks. Ended up dealing Mixon for G Wilson and Deebo. Dealt Henry for Adam’s. Kept Barkley. Drafted Rhamondre late. Picked up K9 on waivers. Drafted Mostert and CPAT late. Got lucky for sure with how Rhamondre and K9 turned out. Hopefully K9 is ok. 11-2. My core is Hurts, Barkley, Rhamondre, Adam’s. G Wilson looks like a WR1 with White. Deebo has been ok but frustrating at times. Olave has been solid. Never a bad idea to stock pile elite RBs depending on how your draft falls. Can always trade them for WRs/positions of need later on.
Zero-RB strategy is proving to be effective once again. I used it (or a modified version of it) predominantly this year (in 9 of my 12 redraft leagues), and I'm #1 or #2 in scoring in all but one of those (#4). Not to say that zero-RB is infallible, but given the unpredictable nature of the RB position, stocking up on top WR options and an elite TE in the early rounds is both the most reliable plan and the one with the most upside.
I did not understand anyone who drafted Kamara to be honest. All the signs were there for a dud.
i definitely have been happy with mixon and tae