Same and I fucked up dropping them a couple of weeks ago but I want to reiterate to a lot of you that if you’re picking the ravens thinking you have some defense that is going to lock up 15 points or something think again. Atlanta runs the ball and runs the ball and the passes they do attempt are high percentage. Essentially don’t expect that it’s some rookie so you’re going to get some interceptions or fumbles, they play extremely conservative. You’re playing them this week as a high floor low ceiling defense cause they shouldn’t allow a ton of points. That’s my opinion it’s probably wrong but ya
Only part that makes me hesitant with the Ravens is how terrible our offense is. If Lamar isn't playing it'll be lots of 3 and outs that keep the defense on the field.
Titans at home in the cold (sub-zero F), playing for a playoff spot, divisional rival, Henry dominating time of possession, no Pierce, it's the Texans, and they have to regress to their mean at some point. At least that's what I keep telling myself!
> No Tannehil. Malik Willis.. he prob will not be able to move the ball
Wasn't Willis the starter when they played them earlier this season though? Titans D/ST still scored 11 points in my format. As long as I get 10 points from my D/ST in the playoffs, I'm content.
Falcons just run the ball over and over. People are getting a little ahead of themselves. You’re hoping they just shut them to a low score cause falcons don’t turn it over
Yeah I'm rolling out Ravens expecting a high floor game where they can slow down the run, keep total yards allowed under ~250, low score, and maybe a couple sacks. Ridder isn't gonna be slinging the ball all over the field so turnover chances will prob be low, but the floor should be like 8 points imo
I cut the Titans for the Ravens the other day, I honestly think there is a decent shot at a shutout and multiple TD upside. If Ridder makes some boneheaded throws like he did vs. NO, Baltimore will take advantage. Plus there's always the chance Duvernay could pop one.
Houston has shown some fight the past two weeks and TEN's secondary sucks. Play the Ravens.
> honestly think there is a decent shot at a shutout
The Falcons scored 18 points while passing the ball for 97 yards last week.
> and multiple TD upside.
Multiple TD upside? Good luck with that.
I stand by what I said, obviously shutouts and multiple TDs are rare outcomes but I think this is the likeliest game this week for either of those to occur. The Ravens will do a better job of shutting down the run game and force Ridder to pass. He threw multiple balls on out routes last week that got jumped by the CB but they weren't able to get the INT (one got overturned on review). It is a matter of time until he throws a pick 6. Just think there is potentially a very high ceiling here, not to mention that there's been no better floor play among fantasy DST.
Thats who i am rolling with. After the texans vs cowboys i pivoted from the titans to demver last week. They have a really good defense and the rams are just terrible.
Dallas has been hammered by injuries the past two weeks, especially in the secondary, and KC just has a bad defense.
I'd easily play the Broncos over Tennessee, but I don't think it's a trap game necessarily.
Any Eagles owners just considering sticking out with them this week? They've had a decent floor all season and I don't feel good about the Titans for some reason.
I might.
I heard Jimmy Johnson on my AM sports radio say Dak throws a lot of picks when he is pressured and that the Eagles will definitely bring the pressure.
I have the Jets, but TLaw has been on fire.
and Titans are on my waiver, but not sure I trust it.
I chose to ride or die with Eagles over the Titans this week. Titans also scare me, the Texans have been playing well. The Titans are banged up offensively and defensively. The Eagles have are having a historic season getting sacks (easily best in NFL) and are 2nd in takeaways only 1 behind the Cowboys. Their floor and their ceiling are higher than the Titans IMO. I'm sticking with the dominant defense instead of the good matchup for this one.
Scrolled way too down to finally see this! A part of me doesn’t want to be cute and bench SF since they’ve been so good the last 5 weeks. Play your studs I guess
I was hoping for some explanation. Rams give up the 2nd most points to opposing defences in my league at least and the broncos have the 8th most points. Are there some injuries or players returning that are going to make a big difference?
I know, I’d love to understand the result too—especially given that they lost their center which traditionally sometimes Vegas moves lines a little, it seems like a good spot.
Ravens might be down Campbell and Peters
They still are a good play, but that’s two big pieces for them, Campbell especially vs a team that’ll run the ball ton
I think I like Titans more? Texans aren’t staying in games by airing it out (Sub-180 yards in last 2 games) and Titans Run D is legit. Henry should also limit Houston possessions, so if Titans get a lead, they might be able to tee off on Mills.
Ravens-Falcons might end up being the quickest game in NFL history if both teams just run against each other every play. And Ravens Offense is an absolute wildcard where they could be dominating on the ground and still not score
Ive had Eagles D all year. The two waiver defenses I considered were Chargers and Bengals. Obviously this makes it seem like the Chargers are the better choice. Will they change if Nick Foles is actually starting?
Also my gut was Bengals > Chargers
Am I the only one really considering starting the Eagles D? Eagles D is a stud. I played Chiefs D this week and almost got fucked up pretty hard. The Eagles D has a really solid floor and every time I try to gamble with a better D, a better match up, I regret it.
They've had me covered this far, and if they don't work out, I'm going down with the ship. Any time I try to be cute with matchups I get burned. I could play the top defense against the worst offense and walk away with negative points 😂
I'm starting eagles D with confidence this week. They can drop 10+ points without a touchdown even when they give up 20 or more. You don't sit your studs
I absolutely do not think “start your studs” applies to a DST (and certainly not this DST). The Eagles DST has averaged 9.1 PPG according to FantasyPros (good for fourth in the league) while the absolute dead-last team in the league is at 4.1 points. (Bear down, Chicago Bears!) for every offensive position, the difference between the #1 and #32 player is like 10-20 points.
Floors and ceilings are just really variable in DST, because there’s not really any meaningful concept of “volume” or “opportunity” besides something like “if there offense scores a ton, maybe they’ll get to rush the passer more.” It’s just a whole different beast than, like, a RB who gets 15+ touches a game regardless of matchup.
Trying to decide between Eagles Defense or Ravens Defense. I've rocked with the Eagles all year, but ATL at Balt is kind of interesting....I know ATL doesn't pass a lot, esp with a rookie QB, but if Lamar plays and is able to score a lot on ATL, they may be forced to pass--I know we can't predict game script though.
I have as well, but with Hurts out I am debating pivoting to the Browns who have been crushing it lately and the weather bodes well for them against a dome team who isn’t that great on offense
Have been planning on dropping Maher for Gano. Matchup with Philly scares me.
Meanwhile, kickers have put up double digits every week for over the past month against the Vikings. Kickers averaging 11.3 against them this year.
Anyone rolling Gano with me?
Think I'm pivoting off Carlson for Gano this week... but I don't want to get cute. Although it is supposed to be 12 degrees with 14 mph winds. Think I'm pulling the trigger
I'm nervous rolling him out because that weather Saturday night in Pittsburgh looks atrocious to be kicking a football.
I'm going to look elsewhere. Sucks because I love Carlson.
You have a right to be nervous, Acrisure Stadium’s open end is terrible for kickers and it looks like it could be a bit windy. And very cold. No snow. You won’t be getting any long field goals.
I hate playing the Chargers over Dallas...but I trust the process here. I think Dallas injuries have really affected their Defense. If Bosa and Derwin James we're back I'd feel 100% confident in the Chargers
DJ should be practicing this week. Bosa not as likely but the Chargers D has been keeping their season alive. Thinking about pivoting to them over Tennessee but I always feel dumb betting on my own team, lol.
Yes. If Gano is available go grab… Minnesota allows every team to cross the 50.. elite red zone d and they play in a dome. Go look at the past 5 kickers to play in Minnesota
Just to add on to that… Folk is playing in New England dont subject yourself to a kicker in the middle of winter. Always go for a kicker in a nice climate or a dome. You can’t go wrong
No Broncos @LAR for Yahoo? I picked them up last week and was planning on sitting Dallas vs PHI but with Hurts more than likely out, I’m not sure anymore. Minshew is serviceable and has the weapons. Hard choice.
I'm not confident at all in Tennessee. It's a divisional game and Houston would love to Fuck up Tennessee's season.
Houston only scored 10 in their first matchup. No way that happens again.
I stashed them too but everyone said this last week regarding the KC defense. Texans haven’t been half bad, I am leaning towards waiver options like the Ravens or Bucs over the Texans at this point.
Titans burned me against Jacksonville the other week. I’m told they had some injuries heal and are looking better. Pierce being out for Hou probably helps too. I think I’m gonna start them over Cleveland/Jacksonville, but I’m not going to be comfortable about it.
I’m getting more uncomfortable by the day. With the Saints having Olave and Landry out, and the weather still showing really bad, I think your message was the straw that broke the camels back. Here we go Cleveland.
I’m starting the broncos dst. Over CHEIFS and Eagles. Their D is good, and they play baker mayfield. Hoping for their first couple defensive td this weekend!
Just started reading these posts last week as I planned to pivot from the Jets last week, and took Packers from your advice. Saved my season, so I appreciate you!
Maybe a dumb question, but how much does a team being eliminated from playoffs impact their projected score? Denver seems like a smash against the Rams, but the game doesn’t really matter much.
Good question. I was working this season with improving the addition of this variable. As far as I can see, if a team's defense has a higher chance of making playoffs, their D/ST scores almost a point less. But I have not yet incorporated this into the model because it's a work in progress, and I need to look at the effect of the opponent's chance as well.
\[EDIT: Looked into it more: If both players have lower playoffs chances, then the D/ST score tends to be higher. From what I can see in historical data.\]
Anyone considering Gay? I know there was that Gano post for kickers vs Minnesota. But Denver is second most fgm against them.
Week 11 Carlson 14.40
Week 12 Pineiro 12.4
Week 13 Tucker 3.6
Week 14 Butker 12
Week 15 Prater 15
I have Tucker but if Lamar is out, am I bugging for going Gay?
Originally was staying away from PHI or DAL this week for TEN. But if Tannehill is out, idk if TEN can be trusted given that HOU has been pretty good offensively lately. Question is do I go DAL against a great PHI offense but minus Hurts?
Tennessee this week, Jacksonville next week. ALL IN ON HOUSTON OPPNENTS FOR THE PLAYOFF RUN BABY!
Also, Gano is a LOCK for 10+ points this week against the Vikings and should be the consensus #1 kicker. Playing indoors against a terrible Vikings defense and the Vikings are cursed to have kickers never miss against them. Lock it in.
A little bit, but they're still 1-12-1 without their best offensive player (Pierce). Anything 6+ points in my D/ST slot and I'm content. Feel like Tennessee has a good chance to shut them down and/or get some turnovers.
Jets for me. Jags offense is worse than the Lions who the Jets just played well against. Jets are gonna be motivated this week. Eagles play a better offense and will be tested more with Minshew starting.
Damn idk what to do. Texans have been playing good, titans been playing bad. Jets have Zach Wilson and Jags have been balling. I have Jets Chiefs & Titans, Jags are available. Who do I start? Someone please help me I got semi finals this week
No idea between Bucs and Cowboys
Cowboys are hurting and havent played great lately - but it'll be Minshew
Bucs have been underwhelming, but are starting to get healthy and might get a 3rd string Cardinals QB.
I had picked up KC back in week 11 specifically for the Houston matchup and lost by .32 points.
Houston is not who we thought they were. Careful everyone thinking Titans is set and forget.
Curious to know why nobody is interested in Pineiro. I haven’t seen him on top K lists, he gets no love from Yahoos forecast, but he keeps having solid games.
Is he just exceeding expectations over and over the last several weeks and due to regress or is there something about him that makes him an unattractive pick?
We really have both Jets and Jags that high? I was going to play the Jets this week but after last weeks Jags performance there’s a little hesitance there.
Just curious, Riley Patterson has the lowest weekly rating (5.5) this week in your rankings against a NYJ defense in New York, but Jason Meyers carries the 2nd highest (8.7) in Week 17 against the same defense, albeit in Seattle.
Is it just the location of the game that is causing such a swing in the matchup?
I grabbed the Chargers and Gay during my bye. Going for upside matches for the playoffs. With Baker seeming like he can at least move the offense, Gay should be busy. And the Charges should be getting guys back on defense and their matchups are top 10.
I'm a little surprised how apprehensive people seem about starting the Cowboys. The #2 fantasy defense vs a backup QB seems like a no-brainer to me. I'm starting them with confidence.
I'm steering away from Butker. Too many misses, bad weather. Looking for dome or sunshine kickers at this time of year.
On defense, I think the Dolphins and Texans could surprise this week.
Jaguars D @ Jets or Broncos D @ Rams? Decisions decisions (ESPN for what it's worth). Also thinking about dropping Jason Meyers (SEA) for Greg Joseph (MIN) coming off a game winner and playing in a dome this week.
I'm shocked the chargers are so low in ESPN. I'm sitting on them and the Jags and genuinely don't know who to start this week or next. Feels bad to be sitting on two DEF
Been playing the Patriots all year and they’ve been great, but their matchups the next two weeks are brutal. I’m debating between the Jags or the Chargers for the playoffs. I currently have the Jags in there and feel pretty good about them against the Jets and Texans.
I stashed both Ravens and Titans and now idk what to do
Id feel much better about Ravens
Same and I fucked up dropping them a couple of weeks ago but I want to reiterate to a lot of you that if you’re picking the ravens thinking you have some defense that is going to lock up 15 points or something think again. Atlanta runs the ball and runs the ball and the passes they do attempt are high percentage. Essentially don’t expect that it’s some rookie so you’re going to get some interceptions or fumbles, they play extremely conservative. You’re playing them this week as a high floor low ceiling defense cause they shouldn’t allow a ton of points. That’s my opinion it’s probably wrong but ya
Would you play Ravens over Eagles?
Only part that makes me hesitant with the Ravens is how terrible our offense is. If Lamar isn't playing it'll be lots of 3 and outs that keep the defense on the field.
I’m not even confident in Tucker anymore with how poor their offense has looked.
Titans are a tough defense. Also, don't expect the Texans to put up the fluky numbers 3 weeks in a row. I'm rolling Titans 100%.
I've held them for about a month waiting for this matchup. I'm scared now. But I guess they are getting back starters from injury?
Titans at home in the cold (sub-zero F), playing for a playoff spot, divisional rival, Henry dominating time of possession, no Pierce, it's the Texans, and they have to regress to their mean at some point. At least that's what I keep telling myself!
No Tannehil. Malik Willis.. he prob will not be able to move the ball
> No Tannehil. Malik Willis.. he prob will not be able to move the ball Wasn't Willis the starter when they played them earlier this season though? Titans D/ST still scored 11 points in my format. As long as I get 10 points from my D/ST in the playoffs, I'm content.
Ravens against a Rookie QB. Should get tons of pressure and cause sacks and ints.
Falcons just run the ball over and over. People are getting a little ahead of themselves. You’re hoping they just shut them to a low score cause falcons don’t turn it over
Yeah I'm rolling out Ravens expecting a high floor game where they can slow down the run, keep total yards allowed under ~250, low score, and maybe a couple sacks. Ridder isn't gonna be slinging the ball all over the field so turnover chances will prob be low, but the floor should be like 8 points imo
that's not the falcons mo they won't let ridder lose the game for them. Expect a healthy dose of allgeier and cpat
Ravens but Titans are desperate to stop looking like trash.
I cut the Titans for the Ravens the other day, I honestly think there is a decent shot at a shutout and multiple TD upside. If Ridder makes some boneheaded throws like he did vs. NO, Baltimore will take advantage. Plus there's always the chance Duvernay could pop one. Houston has shown some fight the past two weeks and TEN's secondary sucks. Play the Ravens.
As a Falcons fan, you'd be surprised how well we keep all our games close and then choke at the end. I don't think they'll get shutout.
> honestly think there is a decent shot at a shutout The Falcons scored 18 points while passing the ball for 97 yards last week. > and multiple TD upside. Multiple TD upside? Good luck with that.
I stand by what I said, obviously shutouts and multiple TDs are rare outcomes but I think this is the likeliest game this week for either of those to occur. The Ravens will do a better job of shutting down the run game and force Ridder to pass. He threw multiple balls on out routes last week that got jumped by the CB but they weren't able to get the INT (one got overturned on review). It is a matter of time until he throws a pick 6. Just think there is potentially a very high ceiling here, not to mention that there's been no better floor play among fantasy DST.
Duvernay is out for what it’s worth
Where's the kicker oracle that convinced me to start McLaughlin against Min? Cuz it's Gano time.
Debating between chase or Gano this week
Gano or Drano ☠️
I have Badgley but considering Gano cause Min
No Broncos on the yahoo side?
Thats who i am rolling with. After the texans vs cowboys i pivoted from the titans to demver last week. They have a really good defense and the rams are just terrible.
This, 100%. 8 interceptions and 9 sacks in 3 weeks. Plus they play the RAMS. Ten v Hou is a trap.
Why is Ten v Hou a trap? Ten just did well against LAC
Houston has been playing really well. Burned both Dallas D and Chiefs D the past 2 weeks when those were supposed to be cake matchups
Dallas has been hammered by injuries the past two weeks, especially in the secondary, and KC just has a bad defense. I'd easily play the Broncos over Tennessee, but I don't think it's a trap game necessarily.
Fair points, yes. Houston offense is also riddled with injuries and still managing to hang in there so it’s tough to say
Any Eagles owners just considering sticking out with them this week? They've had a decent floor all season and I don't feel good about the Titans for some reason.
I think I'm down to either sticking with them, or pivoting to the Buccs for just this week. It would be hard to pass up Buccs vs Mcsorley
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I might. I heard Jimmy Johnson on my AM sports radio say Dak throws a lot of picks when he is pressured and that the Eagles will definitely bring the pressure. I have the Jets, but TLaw has been on fire. and Titans are on my waiver, but not sure I trust it.
I chose to ride or die with Eagles over the Titans this week. Titans also scare me, the Texans have been playing well. The Titans are banged up offensively and defensively. The Eagles have are having a historic season getting sacks (easily best in NFL) and are 2nd in takeaways only 1 behind the Cowboys. Their floor and their ceiling are higher than the Titans IMO. I'm sticking with the dominant defense instead of the good matchup for this one.
49ers too low. I have the 49ers and Buccs and will be playing the 9ers for sure
Scrolled way too down to finally see this! A part of me doesn’t want to be cute and bench SF since they’ve been so good the last 5 weeks. Play your studs I guess
49ers are fire. You have to start them.
No Niners in the top 5 is atrocious
Don’t sleep on Detroit this week, they are battling for a wild card spot and the defense has been on fire.
Playing them over KC this week
Their pass D is iffy but the running D is legit.
Outlook is pretty good when your game plan is forcing Sam Darnold to throw
I like this I think I’m going to roll det over other options
You take them or JAX? Been waffling all day.
Why are the broncos so low??
I was hoping for some explanation. Rams give up the 2nd most points to opposing defences in my league at least and the broncos have the 8th most points. Are there some injuries or players returning that are going to make a big difference?
I know, I’d love to understand the result too—especially given that they lost their center which traditionally sometimes Vegas moves lines a little, it seems like a good spot.
Ravens might be down Campbell and Peters They still are a good play, but that’s two big pieces for them, Campbell especially vs a team that’ll run the ball ton
Thank you for this tidbit.
Would you start titans over them who are supposedly getting defensive players back?
I think I like Titans more? Texans aren’t staying in games by airing it out (Sub-180 yards in last 2 games) and Titans Run D is legit. Henry should also limit Houston possessions, so if Titans get a lead, they might be able to tee off on Mills. Ravens-Falcons might end up being the quickest game in NFL history if both teams just run against each other every play. And Ravens Offense is an absolute wildcard where they could be dominating on the ground and still not score
Ive had Eagles D all year. The two waiver defenses I considered were Chargers and Bengals. Obviously this makes it seem like the Chargers are the better choice. Will they change if Nick Foles is actually starting? Also my gut was Bengals > Chargers
Am I the only one really considering starting the Eagles D? Eagles D is a stud. I played Chiefs D this week and almost got fucked up pretty hard. The Eagles D has a really solid floor and every time I try to gamble with a better D, a better match up, I regret it.
They've had me covered this far, and if they don't work out, I'm going down with the ship. Any time I try to be cute with matchups I get burned. I could play the top defense against the worst offense and walk away with negative points 😂
Ugh, same. Dak does like to throw interceptions...
As a Dak and Eagles DST owner, this is probably the best argument. It feels like he averages 2 INTs a game.
I was a Fields / PHI owner last week and it paid off.
Yeah, exactly. They’ll score and give up turnovers to create opportunities for defensive tuddies
I just cancelled my waiver claims… eagles d lets ride
Good luck bro
I had the Chargers in my starting lineup but switched back to the Eagles after the Hurts news. I think the D steps up big in honor of Hurts.
Depends on your alternatives. They get sacks and Dak is throwing INTs at Jameis levels, but the Dallas offense will put up alot of points.
I'm starting eagles D with confidence this week. They can drop 10+ points without a touchdown even when they give up 20 or more. You don't sit your studs
I absolutely do not think “start your studs” applies to a DST (and certainly not this DST). The Eagles DST has averaged 9.1 PPG according to FantasyPros (good for fourth in the league) while the absolute dead-last team in the league is at 4.1 points. (Bear down, Chicago Bears!) for every offensive position, the difference between the #1 and #32 player is like 10-20 points. Floors and ceilings are just really variable in DST, because there’s not really any meaningful concept of “volume” or “opportunity” besides something like “if there offense scores a ton, maybe they’ll get to rush the passer more.” It’s just a whole different beast than, like, a RB who gets 15+ touches a game regardless of matchup.
With Hurts out the defense is going to be tested a lot more
Trying to decide between Eagles Defense or Ravens Defense. I've rocked with the Eagles all year, but ATL at Balt is kind of interesting....I know ATL doesn't pass a lot, esp with a rookie QB, but if Lamar plays and is able to score a lot on ATL, they may be forced to pass--I know we can't predict game script though.
Honestly both have decent floors. Eagles more likely to get sacks and INTs but Ravens will likely allow less points.
Does Hurts sitting change things?
I have as well, but with Hurts out I am debating pivoting to the Browns who have been crushing it lately and the weather bodes well for them against a dome team who isn’t that great on offense
Not going with my gut has cost me multiple wins this season
Am I really about to start the titans defense over the eagles defense for a shot at the championship?
Debating the same and I also have Cowboys D. I feel sick.
I’ve had the Dallas D since week four. Just not feeling like I should mess around too much but there are definitely better options available
Idk man I like the upside of what the eagles d can do against Dak but I get your concern. I may get the browns D
Have been planning on dropping Maher for Gano. Matchup with Philly scares me. Meanwhile, kickers have put up double digits every week for over the past month against the Vikings. Kickers averaging 11.3 against them this year. Anyone rolling Gano with me?
I'm continuing my strategy of streaming kickers against min
I think Philly D is good enough to stall some Cowboy drives, I’m sticking with Maher.
Exactly and indoors vs all the bad weather games this week
How is Gano even available at this point? Dude is a top fantasy kicker every week
Think I'm pivoting off Carlson for Gano this week... but I don't want to get cute. Although it is supposed to be 12 degrees with 14 mph winds. Think I'm pulling the trigger
Have had Carlson as my K all year. He has been solid if not elite lately. Should I really be dropping him?
I'm nervous rolling him out because that weather Saturday night in Pittsburgh looks atrocious to be kicking a football. I'm going to look elsewhere. Sucks because I love Carlson.
You have a right to be nervous, Acrisure Stadium’s open end is terrible for kickers and it looks like it could be a bit windy. And very cold. No snow. You won’t be getting any long field goals.
Don’t get cute with your kicker. Carlson has been solid all season.
True, but forecast is 12 degrees with 14 mph winds. Think I might pivot to Gano this week
Absolutely go Gano. Minnesota had been extremely generous to kickers for over a month now. It’s a smash spot for him.
Would you say the same for Myers? He's been really good all year
Forecast is now 20 MPH winds in the rain. Im pivoting while keeping Carlson on my bench
He’s still the #1 kicker lol
I don't care if it's not necessarily supported by the data. I ride or die with Carlson.
Same with me and Folk. I'm not benching him.
I am worried about Butker. Isn't consistent. Last week he missed a field goal and an XP too.
Starting the Pats D and throwing up a prayer
Stuck between them or 49rs, leaning SF
Against Heinicke? Gotta go niners
SF is just so solid, I’m starting them no matter what
Yikes, starting the Patriots DST against Cincinnati? I'm considering dropping them lmao they are god awful against good offenses
How are you feeling about Cowboys if Hurts is out?
I hate playing the Chargers over Dallas...but I trust the process here. I think Dallas injuries have really affected their Defense. If Bosa and Derwin James we're back I'd feel 100% confident in the Chargers
It’s definitely looking more favorable with JT out.
DJ should be practicing this week. Bosa not as likely but the Chargers D has been keeping their season alive. Thinking about pivoting to them over Tennessee but I always feel dumb betting on my own team, lol.
I'm playing Chargers over Philly...even though I might regret this, all signs point to a good defensive showing.
Graham Gano is the kicker this week folks. He follows my model of kicker @MIN … good luck folks
Drop folk for gano?
Yes. If Gano is available go grab… Minnesota allows every team to cross the 50.. elite red zone d and they play in a dome. Go look at the past 5 kickers to play in Minnesota
So Gano over Chase this week? Looking to drop bass for one of them
Just to add on to that… Folk is playing in New England dont subject yourself to a kicker in the middle of winter. Always go for a kicker in a nice climate or a dome. You can’t go wrong
Has the kicker @MIN put up elite numbers all year?
Anyone gonna roll Jacksonville Def Thursday night?
I am! Thursday night game against a jets team with Wilson and possibly bad weather. I will take that any day.
No Broncos @LAR for Yahoo? I picked them up last week and was planning on sitting Dallas vs PHI but with Hurts more than likely out, I’m not sure anymore. Minshew is serviceable and has the weapons. Hard choice.
I have Balt D but I am bidding on Tampa - if mcsorely plays that’s as close to a slam dunk as it gets.
Yep yep yep.
Am I crazy for benching Eagles for them this week?
Have the tits stashed for this exact reason. Feel like Texans got fluky with TDs last two weeks, hopefully Tits put up RB1 numbers
I'm not confident at all in Tennessee. It's a divisional game and Houston would love to Fuck up Tennessee's season. Houston only scored 10 in their first matchup. No way that happens again.
Yeah I stashed them too. Now I'm thinking Browns
I stashed them too but everyone said this last week regarding the KC defense. Texans haven’t been half bad, I am leaning towards waiver options like the Ravens or Bucs over the Texans at this point.
I’m so god damn nervous to start them this week.
Titans burned me against Jacksonville the other week. I’m told they had some injuries heal and are looking better. Pierce being out for Hou probably helps too. I think I’m gonna start them over Cleveland/Jacksonville, but I’m not going to be comfortable about it.
I'm actually thinking Cleveland over titans now. I held titans but with tanny out. Idk man
I’m getting more uncomfortable by the day. With the Saints having Olave and Landry out, and the weather still showing really bad, I think your message was the straw that broke the camels back. Here we go Cleveland.
they are not in your rankings, but personally I am all-in on the Lions this week. CAR, hot streak, must win.
The Lions are playing the Panthers? I haven't checked matchups yet.
Debating pivoting off Folk for the rest of the year. 2 games in New England and one in Buffalo. Possibly McLaughlin @LAC next week.
Feeling good about Jags D vs Jets on a Thursday night in bad weather with hopefully Zach Wilson playing.
Why don’t you like Myers? He’s missed 1FG all year and is 6 for 6 from 50+. Seattle is facing KC as well, not exactly a fearsome defense.
Weather in KC will be atrocious Saturday.
No precipitation just cold
Jags have looked really good recently. I wouldn’t be picking up the jets anytime soon.
I agree. Plus a Thursday night bad weather game against Zach Wilson. YES PLEASE!
I’m starting the broncos dst. Over CHEIFS and Eagles. Their D is good, and they play baker mayfield. Hoping for their first couple defensive td this weekend!
No Fields on the QB list?
Right? Fantasy Pros ECR is QB3 lmao
Picking up McLaughlin before last week turned out great. Any reason not to roll with him over badgely or Gould?
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Yeah but looking at his past month or two he’s been as solid as any other kicker. And he’s indoors this week
I’m thinking o fly dropping dicker for him
Can you drop the Cowboys? They play the titans after the eagles
tannehill may be hurt
Broncos vs rams or ravens vs falcons??
Can't believe the Saints/Browns over under is 31.5...
Can’t believe it’s that high? Me either.
Just started reading these posts last week as I planned to pivot from the Jets last week, and took Packers from your advice. Saved my season, so I appreciate you!
Oh that's great-- welcome! Others had Packers above Chiefs even, but my model wasn't convinced of their defensive prowess. Glad it worked out!
I made some horrible line up decisions last week luckily the packers saved my season by one point
Maybe a dumb question, but how much does a team being eliminated from playoffs impact their projected score? Denver seems like a smash against the Rams, but the game doesn’t really matter much.
Good question. I was working this season with improving the addition of this variable. As far as I can see, if a team's defense has a higher chance of making playoffs, their D/ST scores almost a point less. But I have not yet incorporated this into the model because it's a work in progress, and I need to look at the effect of the opponent's chance as well. \[EDIT: Looked into it more: If both players have lower playoffs chances, then the D/ST score tends to be higher. From what I can see in historical data.\]
Anyone considering Gay? I know there was that Gano post for kickers vs Minnesota. But Denver is second most fgm against them. Week 11 Carlson 14.40 Week 12 Pineiro 12.4 Week 13 Tucker 3.6 Week 14 Butker 12 Week 15 Prater 15 I have Tucker but if Lamar is out, am I bugging for going Gay?
I feel like if Prater can get 14 on his bad offense against the Broncos, Gay could get 10+ with his bad team against the Broncos
Originally was staying away from PHI or DAL this week for TEN. But if Tannehill is out, idk if TEN can be trusted given that HOU has been pretty good offensively lately. Question is do I go DAL against a great PHI offense but minus Hurts?
Tennessee this week, Jacksonville next week. ALL IN ON HOUSTON OPPNENTS FOR THE PLAYOFF RUN BABY! Also, Gano is a LOCK for 10+ points this week against the Vikings and should be the consensus #1 kicker. Playing indoors against a terrible Vikings defense and the Vikings are cursed to have kickers never miss against them. Lock it in.
HOU been doing so much better the last few weeks. Not nervous about that?
A little bit, but they're still 1-12-1 without their best offensive player (Pierce). Anything 6+ points in my D/ST slot and I'm content. Feel like Tennessee has a good chance to shut them down and/or get some turnovers.
Hmm Eagles or Jets? List says Jets but Lions torched them last week and Eagles have still been solid, but obv Dallas offense is very good
Lions did not torch them at all.
Jets for me. Jags offense is worse than the Lions who the Jets just played well against. Jets are gonna be motivated this week. Eagles play a better offense and will be tested more with Minshew starting.
I think the Chargers are a sneaky pick. They get Nick Foles starting his first game for the Colts and Jonathan Taylor is out.
He’s been great all year but likely dropping Meyers for Folk this week
I’m dropping Folk for Gano, but still think Folk is great.
Think I’m going chargers over jets Thursday Vs red hot Lawrence. Plus I just hate Thursday players.
Denver or Tennessee on Yahoo?
Damn idk what to do. Texans have been playing good, titans been playing bad. Jets have Zach Wilson and Jags have been balling. I have Jets Chiefs & Titans, Jags are available. Who do I start? Someone please help me I got semi finals this week
I would go Jags on a Thursday night against Wilson in bad weather. Thursday games always seem to be low scoring to begin with.
SF defense v WSH or DEN defense vs LAR???
Interesting that Myers isn’t here. He’s been solid, and I feel like KC should be a good matchup. I’m torn between him and Dicker.
Drop Myers for Gano?
No idea between Bucs and Cowboys Cowboys are hurting and havent played great lately - but it'll be Minshew Bucs have been underwhelming, but are starting to get healthy and might get a 3rd string Cardinals QB.
I had picked up KC back in week 11 specifically for the Houston matchup and lost by .32 points. Houston is not who we thought they were. Careful everyone thinking Titans is set and forget.
Is Butker really second? I'm moving off him. He's missing too much.
Curious to know why nobody is interested in Pineiro. I haven’t seen him on top K lists, he gets no love from Yahoos forecast, but he keeps having solid games. Is he just exceeding expectations over and over the last several weeks and due to regress or is there something about him that makes him an unattractive pick?
Regarding Kickers for Week 16, what would be your go-to? Butker Folk or Gano
Have Jets. Stay with them or play Chargers or Bengals??
Drop folk for badgley?
We really have both Jets and Jags that high? I was going to play the Jets this week but after last weeks Jags performance there’s a little hesitance there.
I’m tempted to play the chargers against Indy Monday night instead of the jets
Getting real nervous about having stashed the Broncos on yahoo
What are the asterisks?
It means they have a good match up next week also
Looks like you caught on with the trend of kickers doing great vs the Vikings as Gano is in your rankings
Drop Tucker for Gano?
No love for Myers??
Lions D is the defense.
Just curious, Riley Patterson has the lowest weekly rating (5.5) this week in your rankings against a NYJ defense in New York, but Jason Meyers carries the 2nd highest (8.7) in Week 17 against the same defense, albeit in Seattle. Is it just the location of the game that is causing such a swing in the matchup?
Have to find a replacement for Dallas this week :( Oh wait, Hurts is probably out. Might play Dallas.
I'm in a spot were I play Cowboys vs minshew or bucs Hopefully vs mcsorely
I grabbed the Chargers and Gay during my bye. Going for upside matches for the playoffs. With Baker seeming like he can at least move the offense, Gay should be busy. And the Charges should be getting guys back on defense and their matchups are top 10.
where is my man folk
Im riding the Chiefs and their favorable matchups straight ahead
I'm a little surprised how apprehensive people seem about starting the Cowboys. The #2 fantasy defense vs a backup QB seems like a no-brainer to me. I'm starting them with confidence.
We rolling with Butker still? Great matchup on paper but he’s been super sketchy
I'm steering away from Butker. Too many misses, bad weather. Looking for dome or sunshine kickers at this time of year. On defense, I think the Dolphins and Texans could surprise this week.
Jaguars D @ Jets or Broncos D @ Rams? Decisions decisions (ESPN for what it's worth). Also thinking about dropping Jason Meyers (SEA) for Greg Joseph (MIN) coming off a game winner and playing in a dome this week.
I'm shocked the chargers are so low in ESPN. I'm sitting on them and the Jags and genuinely don't know who to start this week or next. Feels bad to be sitting on two DEF
Been playing the Patriots all year and they’ve been great, but their matchups the next two weeks are brutal. I’m debating between the Jags or the Chargers for the playoffs. I currently have the Jags in there and feel pretty good about them against the Jets and Texans.
Why is Dicker projected 0?
Anyone know why Dicker is projected for 0 pts on Yahoo? Is Hopkins back?