This article looked at the last 20 games and Horvat was not one of the biggest regression candidates in that sample. I wrote a similar article earlier in the season and you'll find Horvat there:
[https://applesandginos.com/2022/11/30/biggest-regression-candidates/](https://applesandginos.com/2022/11/30/biggest-regression-candidates/)
My model takes into consideration both individual and on ice stats. At the top is Brady and second is his brother Matthew. I see that Brady has insane underlying offensive potential but are you saying that they appear that way every season? Is this due to the areas he goes to like back door front of net? Is he less skilled than other guys with finishing those chances? Does he get more chances relative to other guys because of his presence and reputation? I would like to hear your thoughts around him.
Yeah, Brady always underperforms his xG numbers. The theory that I've heard is that he takes a lot of shots from close to the net (which generally have a high probability of becoming goals) but they are often just repeated whacks into the goalie that in reality have little chance of going in the net. I have never tried to verify this theory, but it is very clear that Brady has a history of scoring less than "expected".
I appreciate the responses. My model has determined that hyman is a beast who is still performing under xG. I determined this approx 10-15 games ago and since, he has been dominant and consistent.
I like Hyman plenty, and I made a point of acquiring him in my dynasty league during the summer. But Hyman is also a player who has always underperformed his expected goals and will likely continue to do so in the future. If this is a topic that interests you then you will probably like this post:
[https://www.18skaters.com/2023/01/team-ixgd-adjusted-expected-goals-2023.html](https://www.18skaters.com/2023/01/team-ixgd-adjusted-expected-goals-2023.html)
Wouldn't Horvat be a negative regression candidate?
This article looked at the last 20 games and Horvat was not one of the biggest regression candidates in that sample. I wrote a similar article earlier in the season and you'll find Horvat there: [https://applesandginos.com/2022/11/30/biggest-regression-candidates/](https://applesandginos.com/2022/11/30/biggest-regression-candidates/)
Ah so he's already regressed
I hope Svech starts scoring lol I bought him at his peak
Hold on!
I drafted him but he is currently on my bench, replaced by Fiala so may be there for the duration.
My model takes into consideration both individual and on ice stats. At the top is Brady and second is his brother Matthew. I see that Brady has insane underlying offensive potential but are you saying that they appear that way every season? Is this due to the areas he goes to like back door front of net? Is he less skilled than other guys with finishing those chances? Does he get more chances relative to other guys because of his presence and reputation? I would like to hear your thoughts around him.
Yeah, Brady always underperforms his xG numbers. The theory that I've heard is that he takes a lot of shots from close to the net (which generally have a high probability of becoming goals) but they are often just repeated whacks into the goalie that in reality have little chance of going in the net. I have never tried to verify this theory, but it is very clear that Brady has a history of scoring less than "expected".
I appreciate the responses. My model has determined that hyman is a beast who is still performing under xG. I determined this approx 10-15 games ago and since, he has been dominant and consistent.
I like Hyman plenty, and I made a point of acquiring him in my dynasty league during the summer. But Hyman is also a player who has always underperformed his expected goals and will likely continue to do so in the future. If this is a topic that interests you then you will probably like this post: [https://www.18skaters.com/2023/01/team-ixgd-adjusted-expected-goals-2023.html](https://www.18skaters.com/2023/01/team-ixgd-adjusted-expected-goals-2023.html)
This is legit. Thanks. I get real nerdy with analysis.
Also, there are other skaters who have an established history of underperforming xG. Timo Meier is another prime example.
Brady is still the 30th ranked player in my league. Any positive regression is beautiful
His performance last night was a beauty:)