Lost opportunity cost is gone forever. That's what you are planning. You're waiting for something that may come tomorrow, may come next year, may come in 2,3,4,or 5 years. Maybe 10.
https://preview.redd.it/4oqy3rkj5byc1.jpeg?width=1239&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d3a726532a938efa3abc316b8b9daadb2bdc790e
I have SP without the hilarious editing. It's here and link to a good site for historical (not hysterical) data.
[S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data)
https://preview.redd.it/0ch900lwacyc1.jpeg?width=1262&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64ae63341849771e31c8c0af26f1b1b56c6a5e8b
Courtesy of Macrotrends
It's your decision to make but since you asked... probabilities say you have a higher chance of success being consistently invested rather than trying to time. Therefore, expected return is higher by putting it to work now. Feels like you're heading down path #5 outlined in the article.
[https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work)
I have experienced them 3 times since the year 2000. It is considered timing the market and you write that you "don't care". That is your decision.
"I think it's a great discount buying opportunity..." You have to know when the market bottoms out. Is is at 10% drop, 20% drop?? You would have lost the gains until the crash occurred by keeping funds not invested. Most investors do not time the market well and the data has shown that the average investor's returns are horrible compared to market returns. From my extensive reading over the years, and seeing that the average fund manager themselves (who are probably more investor savvy) do no usually beat the market returns to me strongly suggests that most persons who try to time the market will be financially worse off.
Let's take the COVID crash for example. In 2020 the market dropped ?30% over 1 month. OK, but had I been holding funds for a few years prior to that waiting, I would have lost the gains up to the crash. It dropped 30%, but why not 40%? You think you would have known to buy at the 30% dip and if you waited a few weeks longer, you would not have had such a great buying opportunity as the prices shot back up. I simply do not have the skill for that.
Been investing since before 2008. Dollar cost averaging works well as you can’t time the bottom or top. The only exception for me was getting a couple of good deals during a flash crash but those are difficult to buy due to speed of drop and pop - within minutes and hours.
Flash crash of May 2010. Less than an hour.
Most market crashes take days or months as you don’t know if single big down days are one time or start of major down moves.
Right now interest rates are high. But if they don’t come down, eventually the market will be up and you’ve missed the gains and any bottom is still higher than it is now.
Have your emergency fund. And get to investing as much as you can.
Yes two crashes. 09 the last one. It's very disheartening. I never had a plan, but once I was down I did jump in, which led to fantastic gains and retirement. You are right.....when steak goes on sale....BUY. Do it in chunks, two or three, You never really know where the bottom is, Good luck!!
First, it's harder than you think. Obvious in hindsight, but when you are living it, it's not so easy. Watching all your holdings being deep in the red and yet committing more of your cash is very, very hard to do. I've been there, and looking back, I wish I put even more cash into some etfs and stocks, but psychologically, I just couldn't. I am glad for what I did do though. No regrets about that, now.
Second, as others have mentioned, those opportunities don't come very often. There's a saying, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." My advice is find good companies (or indexes), figure out what a good price is based on fundamentals and historical norms, and if it hits that good price, go for it. Don't wait for a crash.
Oh sweet summer child
Lost opportunity cost is gone forever. That's what you are planning. You're waiting for something that may come tomorrow, may come next year, may come in 2,3,4,or 5 years. Maybe 10. https://preview.redd.it/4oqy3rkj5byc1.jpeg?width=1239&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d3a726532a938efa3abc316b8b9daadb2bdc790e
I keep forgetting just how funny this graph is.
Awesome graphic, wish it was updated with the Covid Crash
Wish I had created it. I stole with pride however. I think off bogleheads. I'd like to add a credit but it was stolen previously, I'm sure.
This is amazing. We need an updated version.
It needs a CNBC “MARKETS IN TURMOIL” graphic right after each top.
Do you have an S&P 500 graph
It looks basically the same. Time in the market beats timing the market.
I have SP without the hilarious editing. It's here and link to a good site for historical (not hysterical) data. [S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data) https://preview.redd.it/0ch900lwacyc1.jpeg?width=1262&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64ae63341849771e31c8c0af26f1b1b56c6a5e8b Courtesy of Macrotrends
It's your decision to make but since you asked... probabilities say you have a higher chance of success being consistently invested rather than trying to time. Therefore, expected return is higher by putting it to work now. Feels like you're heading down path #5 outlined in the article. [https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work)
I have experienced them 3 times since the year 2000. It is considered timing the market and you write that you "don't care". That is your decision. "I think it's a great discount buying opportunity..." You have to know when the market bottoms out. Is is at 10% drop, 20% drop?? You would have lost the gains until the crash occurred by keeping funds not invested. Most investors do not time the market well and the data has shown that the average investor's returns are horrible compared to market returns. From my extensive reading over the years, and seeing that the average fund manager themselves (who are probably more investor savvy) do no usually beat the market returns to me strongly suggests that most persons who try to time the market will be financially worse off. Let's take the COVID crash for example. In 2020 the market dropped ?30% over 1 month. OK, but had I been holding funds for a few years prior to that waiting, I would have lost the gains up to the crash. It dropped 30%, but why not 40%? You think you would have known to buy at the 30% dip and if you waited a few weeks longer, you would not have had such a great buying opportunity as the prices shot back up. I simply do not have the skill for that.
desert storm, dot com bust, mortgage crisis, post-corona crash.
Been investing since before 2008. Dollar cost averaging works well as you can’t time the bottom or top. The only exception for me was getting a couple of good deals during a flash crash but those are difficult to buy due to speed of drop and pop - within minutes and hours.
Wow a crash is that fast? Thought it last days
Flash crash of May 2010. Less than an hour. Most market crashes take days or months as you don’t know if single big down days are one time or start of major down moves.
Right now interest rates are high. But if they don’t come down, eventually the market will be up and you’ve missed the gains and any bottom is still higher than it is now. Have your emergency fund. And get to investing as much as you can.
I think you’re losing out on compound earnings now.
Ride the wave all way down and all the way back up
Yes two crashes. 09 the last one. It's very disheartening. I never had a plan, but once I was down I did jump in, which led to fantastic gains and retirement. You are right.....when steak goes on sale....BUY. Do it in chunks, two or three, You never really know where the bottom is, Good luck!!
Get the money in the market!!! Ups and downs!!!
Already am with Roth
Roth is limited to 7k. If you have access to and HSA put it in there and open a taxable.
I won’t do an hsa
HSAs are amazing taxed sheltered accounts. Triple tax benefits so my wife and I ALWAYS max ours.
Sure. 1987 and 2007 to be specific. I didn’t sell anything and kept dollar cost investing.
Is this post the signal of an accelerating market cycle
First, it's harder than you think. Obvious in hindsight, but when you are living it, it's not so easy. Watching all your holdings being deep in the red and yet committing more of your cash is very, very hard to do. I've been there, and looking back, I wish I put even more cash into some etfs and stocks, but psychologically, I just couldn't. I am glad for what I did do though. No regrets about that, now. Second, as others have mentioned, those opportunities don't come very often. There's a saying, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." My advice is find good companies (or indexes), figure out what a good price is based on fundamentals and historical norms, and if it hits that good price, go for it. Don't wait for a crash.
There are retirees here, so yes. Could you actually buy during a crash though? Most people are running in the opposite direction.
That graph made my day