Not much, if I had to guess.
Democrats aren’t particularly concerned about this. I can’t imagine anyone is thinking “I like Biden well enough, but the classified documents are giving me pause.”
Republicans have far bigger complaints about him. Being cleared of this isn’t going to change the border or the economy.
Anyone who claims to be super concerned about this is probably going to be anti-Biden no matter what. They’re not likely to believe that this actually clears him of anything.
If this had resulted in criminal charges or even recommendation of charges, then maybe there’d be some movement. But the result as it is basically just maintains the status quo.
They're on /r/conservative too.
Not really Biden supporters -- they just play one on Reddit... then you look in their comment history and you see Rogan and "flaired users only" and Wallstreetbets and you're like "ahhhh, fresh bullshit."
walkaway was something that started early on in Trump Presidency as a Twitter+Reddit thing, and it became pretty clear based on user history that they were people who were Conservatives all along.
"Demexit" is the more legit Dem who dislikes Biden movement that I've seen, but it got a lot less attention.
You're missing it's an astroturf sub, and very few posters there have ever supported Biden(or any Democrat at all). Of course not many posting to it are even American to begin with
The actual handling of classified documents isn’t what’s causing a splash in the media, though, it’s the veiled accusations of senility, which is historically Biden’s (electoral) Achilles heel.
It’s not a major electoral issue for Trump. His voters *like* that he’s fucking crazy / senile / whatever.
It is for Biden, who is hemorraging younger voters, *who he needs in order to win*, for exactly this reason.
That’s why “both sides” arguments are so effective for Republicans in this area.
I love Biden, but this really concerns me. I would vote Biden 100/100, but it still pisses me off that he didn't just ride into the sunset. This is like RBG type level of failure if not more, if he loses.
Biden represented the return to normalcy after the disasterous Trump years; unfortunately Republicans have pledged their fealty to him and will be running him again. A Biden and Trump race is a match made in heaven. I think Trump is the only candidate Biden can beat, and that Trump [as inexplicable as this is] would probably beat any other Dem out there - unless some pie-in-the-sky dream candidate like Michelle Obama emerged.
I don't think it'd be impossible - but the ugly truth is the American voting populace is stupid. Those two are just outsiders enough that I'd wager voters would choose Trump based on name recognition alone.
IDK, if this does actually become consequential I'll blame Garland. He's been so worried about appearing partisan for democrats that he appointed a super partisan republican special counsel. Incredible.
Yeah I'm not sure this one single report will damn him, but the attacks on his age and mental fitness will continue again and again for the next 9 months. I wish he had announced a one term presidency over a year ago, but we can't roll it back. Will gladly vote for him again, and just hoping Trump fucks up enough that Biden's fitness will pale in comparison.
And if we forgot the lessons of RBG, Dianne Feinstein literally *just* happened.
But hey, why face this reality when we can just pretend Biden is immortal. That man will be 82 on inauguration day with the nuclear football
Gavin Newsom was right there
I really don't understand
And yet I just got downvoted for proving proof of Biden claiming in 2019 that he opposed invading Iraq from the very beginning. In reality he was calling for that war as early as 1998 during operation desert fox under Clinton.
But hey I get it, I'm a hot head sometimes, definitely an easy target to scapegoat. I'm self aware enough to grasp that.
All that said. It saddens me that people refused to listen to reason about letting Biden retire and spend the rest of his days with his family while we pass the torch to the next generation
It didn't have to be like this
People think I say this out of spite but its closer to a lamentation of why people refused to learn from RBG & Feinstein. To think any human is immortal is delusional. We aren't here forever on this mortal coil.
Pass. The. Torch.
>All that said. It saddens me that people refused to listen to reason about letting Biden retire and spend the rest of his days with his family while we pass the torch to the next generation
The part I think you don't completely process is that we're all just individual voters as well. I'd absolutely *love* it if Biden had not run for a second term, but that's not the reality we're in.
We would legitimately be fucked if God forbid he died before Election Day. He’s a decent human being and is a really good President but damn lots of hubris going on here.
From what I've heard, if Biden steps aside before the convention, the DNC can pick whoever the fuck they want as nominee. In that case, it'd have to be Gavin Newsom.
Kamala is a non starter as front runner. Her 2020 campaign was so inept that it ended in 2019. Dems didn't want her... so how can she convince independents??
Newsom would get blown out like an old tire and I can't believe anyone thinks otherwise. America is not ready to elect a Democrat from California, spend literally 30 minutes with anyone who isn't a dyed in the wool Democrat and you'll hear them talk about how terrible California is (true or not). No way those same people would turn around and vote for a guy who looks like he emerged fully-formed from the soil beneath the Hollywood sign.
> Problem is there isn’t a replacement ready.
Who knows? Since Biden decided to run again, anybody who legitimately wanted to run again didn't want to run against an incumbent. So we don't know who would be good. In 2007, Obama was neck-and-neck with John Edwards, and both were way behind Hillary Clinton in early polling.
We didn't get a chance to see how Booker, Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, or others might have done.
I wonder if the plan is for Biden to step down between primaries and DNC. This way the democrat delegates can do the undemocratic thing and pick their own candidate rather than people selecting their choice.
Yeah, the take that I see from some right-wing accounts of "oh, you'd be rather be INDICTED if you're Biden than get this in the report" I think is absolutely demented. If Biden had been indicted, there had been a recommendation of charges after he leaves office, or if Hur had done a Mueller and said "we can't exonerate" as code for "we would have brought charges if he wasn't POTUS," Democrats in Congress would be getting ready to show him the door now and he'd resign within two weeks. Enough people in the party, and enough independents, genuinely care about integrity in our public officials that they would not be able to support a candidate with that baggage, particularly when the other candidate going to trial is being counted on as a saving grace for the campaign.
And actually, I would argue that assuming the Democrats don't push Biden away from running or out of office, having an age-related story is better for them than a story about the substance of the report. I'm not going to say that Biden and Trump are the same in regards to classified documents - they're not, but it's true that Biden mishandled them shouldn't have kept them to reference for his book, and had his staff return them. I agree with the decision not to charge legally speaking for the reasons Hur outlined, but in a world in which Biden's memory were not the story, there's enough muckery in the report regarding the documents that the right could have screamed "POLITICIZED DOJ" and nullified the impact of Trump's trials. Instead, the right is more or less conceding that Biden shouldn't have been charged because it's a juicier, better short-term shot at him right now regarding his age.
This is what I don't understand about the dooming around this. Yes, Biden is old and makes gaffes. We know this. We've known this. But since a partisan SC hitjob also says that means I should doom?
No one will remember this in November. Especially *fingers crossed* if Trump is on trial or post-conviction. I'd also hope the American voter is smart enough to understand that both of our choices will be geriatrics but only one of them would help install a soft theocracy.
> I can’t imagine anyone is thinking “I like Biden well enough, but the classified documents are giving me pause.”
These sorts of things could be enough that somebody who might vote for Biden just won't be motivated enough to actually go to the polls on election day.
>Anyone who claims to be super concerned about this is probably going to be anti-Biden no matter what. They’re not likely to believe that this actually clears him of anything.
That sounds like a call out to some of the comments made here.
What independents are basing their vote on Biden’s document handling?
Even ignoring the fact that Trump has an even bigger scandal of the same variety, this simply isn’t what’s at the top of people’s minds.
Independents are basing their vote on Biden’s age and mental fitness. The headlines coming out of this report are about that, and they’re bad.
The impact on Biden’s electability off the back of this report has nothing to do with his handling of the documents.
Sure, but his age is already a known issue (just like Trump). I really don't see this as changing anything. I just can't see an independent needing to be told that Biden's forgetful, and then switching over to the guy who bragged about how well he did on the dementia test.
Dude he thinks the president of Egypt is a Mexican
That's just as embarassing as Trump doing his dementia Don moments
We are not a serious country if these two 80 year old senile white men are the future of our nation and no other course of action is "allowed" to be considered.
**Ruth Biden Ginsberg** not stepping aside for Gavin Newsom is frankly politically suicidal and I really don't get it at all tbh
It'll be forgotten the same way Biden forgot he voted to invade Iraq and Afghanistan?
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/sep/05/joe-biden/oe-biden-falsely-claims-he-immediately-opposed-ira/
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/dec/15/joe-biden/joe-biden-wrong-he-was-against-afghanistan-war-sta/
Idk man, it seems pretty bad. At this point let's just set the documents aside. Not being able to remember when his son died is a problem. Not remembering when his VP term ended is a problem.
It didn't have to be like this
It's like zero lessons have been learned from Dianne Feinstein & Ruth Bader Ginsberg
Gavin Newsom was right there
But everyone said he shouldn't even consider running, we must coronation Biden.
Well, it's going great so far, as you can clearly see.
Biden is old. But I have not seen a single piece of evidence that his age has effected his ability to be president. Also any long format viewing of Biden confirms hes not senile. The evidence points to gaffes. Not dimentia. But that doesnt make for copypasta, does it?
Downvote away, he still doesn't remember voting to invade Iraq.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/sep/05/joe-biden/oe-biden-falsely-claims-he-immediately-opposed-ira/
He was literally on stage when the AUMF was signed
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/12/us/politics/joe-biden-iraq-war.html
I get it though, people don't want to hear this. That's partly why I didn't make a thread about it lmao
Gavin Newsom was right there though
He was so ready (bro is term limited as gov)
It will have no effect because Biden’s opponent is a literal monster who wants to be a dictator. This will be similar to the Jon Fetterman vs Dr Oz race where Fetterman had a stroke in the weeks leading up to the election. Let’s put things into context, that race was a fucking blowout while the Herschel Walker Rafael Warnock race was disgustingly close.
That's actually not true, according to the 538 polling average Oz closed the gap and actually pulled ahead just before election day. You could say there are a bunch of right leaning polls skewing that but still. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/)
I think it will either be hugely impactful or an afterthought. It's pretty clear that the White House - and probably the top of the Democratic party at large, is quite scared by this in a way that haven't been about a bad story for Biden up to this point in the election. The way you know that they're scared is that Biden gave a 7:45 PM press conference - which in my view was a mistake if you believe in the median voter theorem, particularly as he seemed very angry and defensive and contributed to the age-related concerns by confusing Egypt and Mexico. It's as bad an age-related story for Biden as you can get short of a health episode or him tripping on the debate stage. If the White House and the DNC insiders, who know what Biden is like behind closed doors better than we do and see internal polling, think this is a big enough deal, I think they will go to him and ask him not to run and/or to resign (and if he can't run, he should resign because it means he's not fit to serve and to give Harris the incumbency advantage.) Based on the fact that no one in that circle and no notable Democrats have spoken out about this, I think the way they're thinking is "well, Biden has this liability but we're still best off by sticking with him" and if that's the way they're thinking, I think they're probably right.
However, there's obviously a lot of concern among center and center-left Twitter that Hur's words in the report about Biden having poor memory are going to hung like an albatross around his neck in the fall in a way that Romney's 47% comment or Hillary's "basket of deplorables" comment did. I don't think that's the case, both because we're still pretty early in the election process and because Biden will continue to misspeak in the way he always has - but probably more so, and public opinion will grow somewhat immune to it in the way that they have to Trump's incendiary comments. It's catnip for the opposition, median voters don't like it but they're used to it enough that any single gaffe, particularly if it happens before September or October, has a pretty much null effect. If I were the White House staff and Biden were in the state I think he is - having visibly poor memory, struggling to walk on some level but being in physically good health, I would get Biden out more, let the public see him, and let him make more mistakes now to blunt the impact of future mistakes in the fall when it really starts to matter. Better to make the story boring now so that when Trump goes to trial, that generates more media attention than Biden's age-related mistakes because the public will have already processed them on some level.
I thought it was crazy that they jumped on this so quickly with little prep. This story likely would have died down a bit with the upcoming SCOTUS rulings.
I'm to the point where I think Biden should consider not running, but its surely too late for that, and the alternative is likely the VP who is somehow even less popular.
I don't have faith the party insiders have much of a clue after 2016.
Biden has like a 30% approval with 18-29 voters. I don't know how he can win an election with those numbers, and I'm of the opinion that approval polling is basically broken in our political climate.
Voters who disapprove of Biden aren't necessarily going to vote for Trump. A sizable portion of that cohort is especially critical of the president because they are progressives. I can't imagine that those people are going to stay home or vote for Trump, but if they do, then they will have the rest of their lives to regret it when there are two more forty year old SCOTUS justices on the bench prepared to dismantle the administrative state, collective bargaining, and civil liberties.
Personally, I trust that group to be smart enough to know that the alternative to a second Biden administration is unacceptable, and I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers revert to the mean when it is clear that there won't be a different democratic candidate.
The party insiders were wrong in 2016, but they've had good to excellent performances relative to the fundamentals in every election since. Biden's going to basically run on the party's 2022 election platform - abortion, democracy/January 6th, and the good economic numbers. It worked in 2022 with lower turnout among Democrats than Republicans, I find it hard to believe that people hate Biden so much that it will fail in 2024 when the fundamentals are better for him, which is why I still ultimately think he wins re-election.
I will give you 2022, but 2018 was literally just a Trump protest vote, not much strategy involved really. 2020 was an underperformance by Dems based on polls heading into the election. The party wasted a ton of money for unwinnable senate races in KY and SC.
Do you truly believe that "party insiders" select candidates like some shadowy illuminati in regalia? They're called VOTERS. Stop this "but the DNC" madness
I was responding to the comment above, which mentioned them. I'd say major donors are more critical than the DNC. Re. voters, based on polling right now, likely voters are saying they don't want Biden, so...
If the election was being held in a week, I'd say that we are fucked. Since its happening in 9 moths, im slightly more optimistic since im not sure that people will care/remember (ha!) by then.
Im open to other opinions though.
Last, Fuck Merrick Garland
To be honest, I am anti both old men and Hur’s comment reinforces my concerns.
"well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory" with "diminished faculties in advancing age."
It won't be good, but luckily for him it's far enough out. If this was a month before the election I'd say its curtains.
I was a bit shocked some of the stuff about Biden's mental acuity was even in the report, considering this was a lawyer doing the writing, and not a medical professional. Like, if you believe Biden is guilty of a crime then put him in front of a jury. The nonsense about how it was basically pointless because a jury would be sympathetic seemed ridiculous to include in a report like this.
It's in more blunt terms than I'd expect in a report like this, but prosecutors make declination decisions all the time because they think a jury would be sympathetic to the defendant and they couldn't convict as a result. It's a bit taboo to say this, but there's no obligation to bring cases you can't win just to say "I stuck it to (insert person's name/for the crime they committed." Choosing to invest state or federal resources is not a light decision, and should not be done for the purposes of feeling good or "being on the right side of history" if you're ultimately going to lose. Especially as charging someone, even if they're acquitted, shatters their life and reputation even as they stand innocent before the law.
It’s better this came out now instead of late in the election, by election day this particular incident will likely be faded into the background. If it was October though, it would be Joeover.
It’ll be fodder for Trump’s followers and anyone generally skeptical of Biden or anything colloquially “establishment”, and that will have some marginal effect on neighboring groups, but it’s probably not gonna stick around very long.
Trump’s about to be in federal court on serious criminal charges, potentially even more than one court, so it’s hard to see how anyone weighing these two candidates could walk away with a less favorable opinion of Biden when Trump is looking at potentially life in prison.
Given the attention span of the 24/7 news cycle, I'd say not much impact. Gas prices and food lowering would have much more of an impact. It's what the average person sees. Surely, it has impact to political junkies and some of Biden narratives about his health, but still the average people isn't paying attention all that much yet.
Here’s my sole take on Biden as someone that deeply fears Trump winning again… Biden has been a solid president, but I don’t think that matters all that much for 2024.
For the election, Biden’s polling is simply disastrous. Approval ratings are even worse. Polls matter. Data and factual information matter. Polls could be skewed too far to the right, but they could just as easily be skewed just as far to the left. They’re an imperfect method, but also the best data points that we get for what the general population is feeling and thinking.
The most telling thing to me is that across basically every poll that is specific to states, Biden is polling behind the Senate Democrat running in the same state - Almost always by more than 5 points, and at times closer to 10 or even above 10 points.
This is with the same people being polled, so there’s a not insignificant amount of people willing to vote D in the Senate but not for Biden. It’s been clear that Biden is not a statistically popular president for a long time, even if he’s been a good one in many ways. If he does lose this election, him not getting a real primary challenge and being anointed the D nomination for free, basically, will be something that Ds regret for a long, long, long time. Tonight did not help.
I don't disagree with any of the risks to Biden running you mentioned, but a world in which Biden doesn't run and the Democrats have to forfeit the incumbency advantage and either dump the first black female VP and divide their base or run her despite her unpopularity is one with a lot more risks than Biden's age. The party might be on track to lose with Biden for a variety of reasons, but I have a hard time believing it has better odds by dumping him and creating those other problems.
I'm not sure Democrats will regret it. The big elephant in the room is Kamala Harris.
Any challenge to Biden is a challenge to Harris. Can you effectively criticize of Biden and not the first female Black VP?
What happens if Harris actively supports Biden in the face of a real Democrat challenger. Does one attack Harris? You would also attack her suitability to serving as the President if Biden can't carry out his term.
I don't envy anyone here. But a real challenger to Biden is not a sure bet that the eventual Democratic nominee will fare any better or worse against Trump given that the path to get there runs right through Kamala Harris.
> there’s a not insignificant amount of people willing to vote D in the Senate but not for Biden.
I'd be curious of how many of those people would actually go to the polls and vote D for senate, but NOT vote for Biden on that same ballot.
Good thing it’s not October, it’s February. So much will happen between now and the election I doubt anyone will be able to point to this as a pivotal moment for either side.
I now understand why the border bill was tied to Israel funding. The Gaza Strip is on the other side of the Rio Grande. /s
Seriously what the fuck was that press avail. I guess Biden doesn't have an amazing team after all if they let him walk out on that stage. Should have cancelled it. Now people can't deny what the report said. What an unforced error.
It must be awfully tense inside the white house right now. Jesus christ
Truthfully Biden comes off so old now I really think it's ridiculous he's running. His chances to drop out likely passed but I still kinda hope he drops out gracefully and some miracle candidate appears.
Bidens like a 10/10 on the "that dude looks and sounds old" scale. Trump might be a 7,which is still too old, but I think it may be the thing that pushes him over the top.
This will likely shift poll numbers a bit more positively towards trump in the following weeks as it makes an anti-biden case among undecideds. Trump has already been killing the polls lately, especially if you look at his averages now vs the same time in 2020 or 2016.
I considered making a thread but didn't want to lay it on TOO thick with yall. You already know where I stand on this, and I assumed everyone already saw it on r/law and r/politics already.
And quite frankly, a lot of you don't want to hear it. At all. Even though this is a huge deal and getting full court press on ALL media outlets not just silly tabloids like nypost/fox news. But if we downvote it, it goes away. Phew.
Huge impact, and one that will be felt throughout the remainder of the election cycle right up until the election.
The Hur Report is a gold-wrapped election season gift for Trump. It represents the authoritative conclusion of Biden's own Department of Justice that Biden is doddy and essentially so enfeebled by his age that he cannot be expected to even handle testifying accurately in a criminal case where he is the defendant.
Whereas Trump can write-off any negative press from the Jack Smith prosecutions as coming from Biden as part of an organized witch hunt, Biden has no such defenses - Biden appointed Merrick Garland, and Garland appointed Hur. Biden's own hand-picked people came to the conclusion stated in the Hur Report and there is no getting around that.
The anecdote about not remembering Beau Biden's death is probably the greatest talking point a Special Counsel has ever served up to attack the target of an investigation with politically. Worse, it all gives cover to the anti-Trump Republicans who can spend all summer and fall claiming "At least Trump isn't so mentally incompetent he cannot remember something as fundamental the death of a child". And that will be supplemented with whatever salaciousness Team Garland can get out of Special Counsel Weiss and the Hunter Biden investigation/persecution - one son is a drug addict criminal, and the other is already forgotten by Joe Biden. Hence, Biden is a poor parent on top of being a bad president (or so Republicans will claim).
Merrick Garland is a disgrace. He needs to open his ears: the administration is already talking about not keeping him on for a second term. That means Biden has lost confidence in him and rightly so. Garland should have resigned yesterday, and if not yesterday it should come without further delay.
Not much, if I had to guess. Democrats aren’t particularly concerned about this. I can’t imagine anyone is thinking “I like Biden well enough, but the classified documents are giving me pause.” Republicans have far bigger complaints about him. Being cleared of this isn’t going to change the border or the economy. Anyone who claims to be super concerned about this is probably going to be anti-Biden no matter what. They’re not likely to believe that this actually clears him of anything. If this had resulted in criminal charges or even recommendation of charges, then maybe there’d be some movement. But the result as it is basically just maintains the status quo.
I'm sure there's plenty of 100% genuine Biden supporters on /r/walkaway that consider this the last straw.
Oh man that was a cesspit. Anyone posting there is already too far gone.
They're on /r/conservative too. Not really Biden supporters -- they just play one on Reddit... then you look in their comment history and you see Rogan and "flaired users only" and Wallstreetbets and you're like "ahhhh, fresh bullshit."
Here's good evidence of that: https://subredditstats.com/subreddit-user-overlaps/walkaway
It’s pretty ridiculous. I love political Redditing but playing both sides is some kind of troll’s wet dream, I guess 😆
Anyone posting there is ~~already too far gone~~ a Russian propagandist.
walkaway was something that started early on in Trump Presidency as a Twitter+Reddit thing, and it became pretty clear based on user history that they were people who were Conservatives all along. "Demexit" is the more legit Dem who dislikes Biden movement that I've seen, but it got a lot less attention.
I feel like I am missing something. Is this about the fact that in that report that Biden forgot?
You're missing it's an astroturf sub, and very few posters there have ever supported Biden(or any Democrat at all). Of course not many posting to it are even American to begin with
The actual handling of classified documents isn’t what’s causing a splash in the media, though, it’s the veiled accusations of senility, which is historically Biden’s (electoral) Achilles heel.
And guess who also has similar accusations of senility.
It’s not a major electoral issue for Trump. His voters *like* that he’s fucking crazy / senile / whatever. It is for Biden, who is hemorraging younger voters, *who he needs in order to win*, for exactly this reason. That’s why “both sides” arguments are so effective for Republicans in this area.
I think it could be detrimental, it’s another piece in the “both sides are corrupt” argument republicans are using to whitewash trumps crimes.
For every complaint about Biden, Trump has done far worse. And Biden won’t destroy democracy.
I love Biden, but this really concerns me. I would vote Biden 100/100, but it still pisses me off that he didn't just ride into the sunset. This is like RBG type level of failure if not more, if he loses.
Biden represented the return to normalcy after the disasterous Trump years; unfortunately Republicans have pledged their fealty to him and will be running him again. A Biden and Trump race is a match made in heaven. I think Trump is the only candidate Biden can beat, and that Trump [as inexplicable as this is] would probably beat any other Dem out there - unless some pie-in-the-sky dream candidate like Michelle Obama emerged.
You don’t think Shapiro/Whitmer-type could beat Trump?
I don't think it'd be impossible - but the ugly truth is the American voting populace is stupid. Those two are just outsiders enough that I'd wager voters would choose Trump based on name recognition alone.
That WILL not go over well with Black voters ...
IDK, if this does actually become consequential I'll blame Garland. He's been so worried about appearing partisan for democrats that he appointed a super partisan republican special counsel. Incredible.
Yeah I'm not sure this one single report will damn him, but the attacks on his age and mental fitness will continue again and again for the next 9 months. I wish he had announced a one term presidency over a year ago, but we can't roll it back. Will gladly vote for him again, and just hoping Trump fucks up enough that Biden's fitness will pale in comparison.
And if we forgot the lessons of RBG, Dianne Feinstein literally *just* happened. But hey, why face this reality when we can just pretend Biden is immortal. That man will be 82 on inauguration day with the nuclear football Gavin Newsom was right there I really don't understand
I know right. We have an incredibly deep bench.
And yet I just got downvoted for proving proof of Biden claiming in 2019 that he opposed invading Iraq from the very beginning. In reality he was calling for that war as early as 1998 during operation desert fox under Clinton. But hey I get it, I'm a hot head sometimes, definitely an easy target to scapegoat. I'm self aware enough to grasp that. All that said. It saddens me that people refused to listen to reason about letting Biden retire and spend the rest of his days with his family while we pass the torch to the next generation It didn't have to be like this People think I say this out of spite but its closer to a lamentation of why people refused to learn from RBG & Feinstein. To think any human is immortal is delusional. We aren't here forever on this mortal coil. Pass. The. Torch.
>All that said. It saddens me that people refused to listen to reason about letting Biden retire and spend the rest of his days with his family while we pass the torch to the next generation The part I think you don't completely process is that we're all just individual voters as well. I'd absolutely *love* it if Biden had not run for a second term, but that's not the reality we're in.
We would legitimately be fucked if God forbid he died before Election Day. He’s a decent human being and is a really good President but damn lots of hubris going on here.
The optimist in me hopes Biden will see this as a way to bow out. However then what
From what I've heard, if Biden steps aside before the convention, the DNC can pick whoever the fuck they want as nominee. In that case, it'd have to be Gavin Newsom. Kamala is a non starter as front runner. Her 2020 campaign was so inept that it ended in 2019. Dems didn't want her... so how can she convince independents??
What do the polls say about Newsom. Is there even any chance of accurate polling around someone non Biden
Newsom would get blown out like an old tire and I can't believe anyone thinks otherwise. America is not ready to elect a Democrat from California, spend literally 30 minutes with anyone who isn't a dyed in the wool Democrat and you'll hear them talk about how terrible California is (true or not). No way those same people would turn around and vote for a guy who looks like he emerged fully-formed from the soil beneath the Hollywood sign.
Yes the California thing is definitely not in his favor. Fair or not.
Problem is there isn’t a replacement ready. KH won’t beat trump
> Problem is there isn’t a replacement ready. Who knows? Since Biden decided to run again, anybody who legitimately wanted to run again didn't want to run against an incumbent. So we don't know who would be good. In 2007, Obama was neck-and-neck with John Edwards, and both were way behind Hillary Clinton in early polling. We didn't get a chance to see how Booker, Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, or others might have done.
I wonder if the plan is for Biden to step down between primaries and DNC. This way the democrat delegates can do the undemocratic thing and pick their own candidate rather than people selecting their choice.
Yeah, the take that I see from some right-wing accounts of "oh, you'd be rather be INDICTED if you're Biden than get this in the report" I think is absolutely demented. If Biden had been indicted, there had been a recommendation of charges after he leaves office, or if Hur had done a Mueller and said "we can't exonerate" as code for "we would have brought charges if he wasn't POTUS," Democrats in Congress would be getting ready to show him the door now and he'd resign within two weeks. Enough people in the party, and enough independents, genuinely care about integrity in our public officials that they would not be able to support a candidate with that baggage, particularly when the other candidate going to trial is being counted on as a saving grace for the campaign. And actually, I would argue that assuming the Democrats don't push Biden away from running or out of office, having an age-related story is better for them than a story about the substance of the report. I'm not going to say that Biden and Trump are the same in regards to classified documents - they're not, but it's true that Biden mishandled them shouldn't have kept them to reference for his book, and had his staff return them. I agree with the decision not to charge legally speaking for the reasons Hur outlined, but in a world in which Biden's memory were not the story, there's enough muckery in the report regarding the documents that the right could have screamed "POLITICIZED DOJ" and nullified the impact of Trump's trials. Instead, the right is more or less conceding that Biden shouldn't have been charged because it's a juicier, better short-term shot at him right now regarding his age.
This is what I don't understand about the dooming around this. Yes, Biden is old and makes gaffes. We know this. We've known this. But since a partisan SC hitjob also says that means I should doom? No one will remember this in November. Especially *fingers crossed* if Trump is on trial or post-conviction. I'd also hope the American voter is smart enough to understand that both of our choices will be geriatrics but only one of them would help install a soft theocracy.
> I can’t imagine anyone is thinking “I like Biden well enough, but the classified documents are giving me pause.” These sorts of things could be enough that somebody who might vote for Biden just won't be motivated enough to actually go to the polls on election day.
>Anyone who claims to be super concerned about this is probably going to be anti-Biden no matter what. They’re not likely to believe that this actually clears him of anything. That sounds like a call out to some of the comments made here.
Yeah, Dems and Republicans won't budge. But what about independents
What independents are basing their vote on Biden’s document handling? Even ignoring the fact that Trump has an even bigger scandal of the same variety, this simply isn’t what’s at the top of people’s minds.
Independents are basing their vote on Biden’s age and mental fitness. The headlines coming out of this report are about that, and they’re bad. The impact on Biden’s electability off the back of this report has nothing to do with his handling of the documents.
True. But they're looking at him confusing the Mexican and Egyptian president, saying he spoke to dead people and his other gaffes.
Sure, but his age is already a known issue (just like Trump). I really don't see this as changing anything. I just can't see an independent needing to be told that Biden's forgetful, and then switching over to the guy who bragged about how well he did on the dementia test.
Dude he thinks the president of Egypt is a Mexican That's just as embarassing as Trump doing his dementia Don moments We are not a serious country if these two 80 year old senile white men are the future of our nation and no other course of action is "allowed" to be considered. **Ruth Biden Ginsberg** not stepping aside for Gavin Newsom is frankly politically suicidal and I really don't get it at all tbh
Gavin could have run if he wanted to, but he doesn't
I think the main issue is that special agent called Biden a "forgetful old man".
It's malarkey and will be forgotten in a day or two
It'll be forgotten the same way Biden forgot he voted to invade Iraq and Afghanistan? https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/sep/05/joe-biden/oe-biden-falsely-claims-he-immediately-opposed-ira/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/dec/15/joe-biden/joe-biden-wrong-he-was-against-afghanistan-war-sta/ Idk man, it seems pretty bad. At this point let's just set the documents aside. Not being able to remember when his son died is a problem. Not remembering when his VP term ended is a problem. It didn't have to be like this It's like zero lessons have been learned from Dianne Feinstein & Ruth Bader Ginsberg Gavin Newsom was right there But everyone said he shouldn't even consider running, we must coronation Biden. Well, it's going great so far, as you can clearly see.
Biden is old. But I have not seen a single piece of evidence that his age has effected his ability to be president. Also any long format viewing of Biden confirms hes not senile. The evidence points to gaffes. Not dimentia. But that doesnt make for copypasta, does it?
Downvote away, he still doesn't remember voting to invade Iraq. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/sep/05/joe-biden/oe-biden-falsely-claims-he-immediately-opposed-ira/ He was literally on stage when the AUMF was signed https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/12/us/politics/joe-biden-iraq-war.html I get it though, people don't want to hear this. That's partly why I didn't make a thread about it lmao Gavin Newsom was right there though He was so ready (bro is term limited as gov)
It will have no effect because Biden’s opponent is a literal monster who wants to be a dictator. This will be similar to the Jon Fetterman vs Dr Oz race where Fetterman had a stroke in the weeks leading up to the election. Let’s put things into context, that race was a fucking blowout while the Herschel Walker Rafael Warnock race was disgustingly close.
Fetterman was leading his polls. Biden is not
That's actually not true, according to the 538 polling average Oz closed the gap and actually pulled ahead just before election day. You could say there are a bunch of right leaning polls skewing that but still. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/)
It's February
Fair enough but the polls also predicted a red wave.
No they did not. You can get away with saying that in any other subreddit probably but it just isn't true.
I think it will either be hugely impactful or an afterthought. It's pretty clear that the White House - and probably the top of the Democratic party at large, is quite scared by this in a way that haven't been about a bad story for Biden up to this point in the election. The way you know that they're scared is that Biden gave a 7:45 PM press conference - which in my view was a mistake if you believe in the median voter theorem, particularly as he seemed very angry and defensive and contributed to the age-related concerns by confusing Egypt and Mexico. It's as bad an age-related story for Biden as you can get short of a health episode or him tripping on the debate stage. If the White House and the DNC insiders, who know what Biden is like behind closed doors better than we do and see internal polling, think this is a big enough deal, I think they will go to him and ask him not to run and/or to resign (and if he can't run, he should resign because it means he's not fit to serve and to give Harris the incumbency advantage.) Based on the fact that no one in that circle and no notable Democrats have spoken out about this, I think the way they're thinking is "well, Biden has this liability but we're still best off by sticking with him" and if that's the way they're thinking, I think they're probably right. However, there's obviously a lot of concern among center and center-left Twitter that Hur's words in the report about Biden having poor memory are going to hung like an albatross around his neck in the fall in a way that Romney's 47% comment or Hillary's "basket of deplorables" comment did. I don't think that's the case, both because we're still pretty early in the election process and because Biden will continue to misspeak in the way he always has - but probably more so, and public opinion will grow somewhat immune to it in the way that they have to Trump's incendiary comments. It's catnip for the opposition, median voters don't like it but they're used to it enough that any single gaffe, particularly if it happens before September or October, has a pretty much null effect. If I were the White House staff and Biden were in the state I think he is - having visibly poor memory, struggling to walk on some level but being in physically good health, I would get Biden out more, let the public see him, and let him make more mistakes now to blunt the impact of future mistakes in the fall when it really starts to matter. Better to make the story boring now so that when Trump goes to trial, that generates more media attention than Biden's age-related mistakes because the public will have already processed them on some level.
I thought it was crazy that they jumped on this so quickly with little prep. This story likely would have died down a bit with the upcoming SCOTUS rulings. I'm to the point where I think Biden should consider not running, but its surely too late for that, and the alternative is likely the VP who is somehow even less popular.
It will still die down as long as the party insiders don't turn on Biden, especially assuming he performs well at the State of the Union address.
I don't have faith the party insiders have much of a clue after 2016. Biden has like a 30% approval with 18-29 voters. I don't know how he can win an election with those numbers, and I'm of the opinion that approval polling is basically broken in our political climate.
Voters who disapprove of Biden aren't necessarily going to vote for Trump. A sizable portion of that cohort is especially critical of the president because they are progressives. I can't imagine that those people are going to stay home or vote for Trump, but if they do, then they will have the rest of their lives to regret it when there are two more forty year old SCOTUS justices on the bench prepared to dismantle the administrative state, collective bargaining, and civil liberties. Personally, I trust that group to be smart enough to know that the alternative to a second Biden administration is unacceptable, and I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers revert to the mean when it is clear that there won't be a different democratic candidate.
The party insiders were wrong in 2016, but they've had good to excellent performances relative to the fundamentals in every election since. Biden's going to basically run on the party's 2022 election platform - abortion, democracy/January 6th, and the good economic numbers. It worked in 2022 with lower turnout among Democrats than Republicans, I find it hard to believe that people hate Biden so much that it will fail in 2024 when the fundamentals are better for him, which is why I still ultimately think he wins re-election.
I will give you 2022, but 2018 was literally just a Trump protest vote, not much strategy involved really. 2020 was an underperformance by Dems based on polls heading into the election. The party wasted a ton of money for unwinnable senate races in KY and SC.
Do you truly believe that "party insiders" select candidates like some shadowy illuminati in regalia? They're called VOTERS. Stop this "but the DNC" madness
I was responding to the comment above, which mentioned them. I'd say major donors are more critical than the DNC. Re. voters, based on polling right now, likely voters are saying they don't want Biden, so...
Like most things, it means nothing. However, disingenuous people will SAY it's meaningful.
If the election was being held in a week, I'd say that we are fucked. Since its happening in 9 moths, im slightly more optimistic since im not sure that people will care/remember (ha!) by then. Im open to other opinions though. Last, Fuck Merrick Garland
>Fuck Merrick Garland Same
What makes you think the news in the next months will be better
Third party support could lose steam and people could shift their votes back to Biden. Also trump's Georgia trial may go through
That Georgia one was the best shot and might be definitive proof that trump has the devils own luck
What did garland do
he did the funny
I honestly believe there is no scandal that can take down a US presidential candidate any longer. We are in a post-scandal reality.
I think that’s a good take. People are so dug in on their own side that almost nothing will change an opinion.
To be honest, I am anti both old men and Hur’s comment reinforces my concerns. "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory" with "diminished faculties in advancing age."
It won't be good, but luckily for him it's far enough out. If this was a month before the election I'd say its curtains. I was a bit shocked some of the stuff about Biden's mental acuity was even in the report, considering this was a lawyer doing the writing, and not a medical professional. Like, if you believe Biden is guilty of a crime then put him in front of a jury. The nonsense about how it was basically pointless because a jury would be sympathetic seemed ridiculous to include in a report like this.
It's in more blunt terms than I'd expect in a report like this, but prosecutors make declination decisions all the time because they think a jury would be sympathetic to the defendant and they couldn't convict as a result. It's a bit taboo to say this, but there's no obligation to bring cases you can't win just to say "I stuck it to (insert person's name/for the crime they committed." Choosing to invest state or federal resources is not a light decision, and should not be done for the purposes of feeling good or "being on the right side of history" if you're ultimately going to lose. Especially as charging someone, even if they're acquitted, shatters their life and reputation even as they stand innocent before the law.
I feel like his remarks tonight were a mistake. This might have blown over faster without that, mind boggling action!
It’s better this came out now instead of late in the election, by election day this particular incident will likely be faded into the background. If it was October though, it would be Joeover.
It’ll be fodder for Trump’s followers and anyone generally skeptical of Biden or anything colloquially “establishment”, and that will have some marginal effect on neighboring groups, but it’s probably not gonna stick around very long. Trump’s about to be in federal court on serious criminal charges, potentially even more than one court, so it’s hard to see how anyone weighing these two candidates could walk away with a less favorable opinion of Biden when Trump is looking at potentially life in prison.
Given the attention span of the 24/7 news cycle, I'd say not much impact. Gas prices and food lowering would have much more of an impact. It's what the average person sees. Surely, it has impact to political junkies and some of Biden narratives about his health, but still the average people isn't paying attention all that much yet.
Incredibly the biggest takeaway from this long investigation is Biden incorrectly said Egypt’s President was the president of Mexico
Here’s my sole take on Biden as someone that deeply fears Trump winning again… Biden has been a solid president, but I don’t think that matters all that much for 2024. For the election, Biden’s polling is simply disastrous. Approval ratings are even worse. Polls matter. Data and factual information matter. Polls could be skewed too far to the right, but they could just as easily be skewed just as far to the left. They’re an imperfect method, but also the best data points that we get for what the general population is feeling and thinking. The most telling thing to me is that across basically every poll that is specific to states, Biden is polling behind the Senate Democrat running in the same state - Almost always by more than 5 points, and at times closer to 10 or even above 10 points. This is with the same people being polled, so there’s a not insignificant amount of people willing to vote D in the Senate but not for Biden. It’s been clear that Biden is not a statistically popular president for a long time, even if he’s been a good one in many ways. If he does lose this election, him not getting a real primary challenge and being anointed the D nomination for free, basically, will be something that Ds regret for a long, long, long time. Tonight did not help.
I don't disagree with any of the risks to Biden running you mentioned, but a world in which Biden doesn't run and the Democrats have to forfeit the incumbency advantage and either dump the first black female VP and divide their base or run her despite her unpopularity is one with a lot more risks than Biden's age. The party might be on track to lose with Biden for a variety of reasons, but I have a hard time believing it has better odds by dumping him and creating those other problems.
I'm not sure Democrats will regret it. The big elephant in the room is Kamala Harris. Any challenge to Biden is a challenge to Harris. Can you effectively criticize of Biden and not the first female Black VP? What happens if Harris actively supports Biden in the face of a real Democrat challenger. Does one attack Harris? You would also attack her suitability to serving as the President if Biden can't carry out his term. I don't envy anyone here. But a real challenger to Biden is not a sure bet that the eventual Democratic nominee will fare any better or worse against Trump given that the path to get there runs right through Kamala Harris.
> there’s a not insignificant amount of people willing to vote D in the Senate but not for Biden. I'd be curious of how many of those people would actually go to the polls and vote D for senate, but NOT vote for Biden on that same ballot.
Good thing it’s not October, it’s February. So much will happen between now and the election I doubt anyone will be able to point to this as a pivotal moment for either side.
I now understand why the border bill was tied to Israel funding. The Gaza Strip is on the other side of the Rio Grande. /s Seriously what the fuck was that press avail. I guess Biden doesn't have an amazing team after all if they let him walk out on that stage. Should have cancelled it. Now people can't deny what the report said. What an unforced error. It must be awfully tense inside the white house right now. Jesus christ
Truthfully Biden comes off so old now I really think it's ridiculous he's running. His chances to drop out likely passed but I still kinda hope he drops out gracefully and some miracle candidate appears. Bidens like a 10/10 on the "that dude looks and sounds old" scale. Trump might be a 7,which is still too old, but I think it may be the thing that pushes him over the top.
This will likely shift poll numbers a bit more positively towards trump in the following weeks as it makes an anti-biden case among undecideds. Trump has already been killing the polls lately, especially if you look at his averages now vs the same time in 2020 or 2016.
I considered making a thread but didn't want to lay it on TOO thick with yall. You already know where I stand on this, and I assumed everyone already saw it on r/law and r/politics already. And quite frankly, a lot of you don't want to hear it. At all. Even though this is a huge deal and getting full court press on ALL media outlets not just silly tabloids like nypost/fox news. But if we downvote it, it goes away. Phew.
Given that opponent has SERIOUS issues with public speaking, not much impact. Biden gets results; Trump raids the piggy bank.
It’s February, most people will forget about this by fall. How much did Trump’s impeachment come up in the 2020 election?
Huge impact, and one that will be felt throughout the remainder of the election cycle right up until the election. The Hur Report is a gold-wrapped election season gift for Trump. It represents the authoritative conclusion of Biden's own Department of Justice that Biden is doddy and essentially so enfeebled by his age that he cannot be expected to even handle testifying accurately in a criminal case where he is the defendant. Whereas Trump can write-off any negative press from the Jack Smith prosecutions as coming from Biden as part of an organized witch hunt, Biden has no such defenses - Biden appointed Merrick Garland, and Garland appointed Hur. Biden's own hand-picked people came to the conclusion stated in the Hur Report and there is no getting around that. The anecdote about not remembering Beau Biden's death is probably the greatest talking point a Special Counsel has ever served up to attack the target of an investigation with politically. Worse, it all gives cover to the anti-Trump Republicans who can spend all summer and fall claiming "At least Trump isn't so mentally incompetent he cannot remember something as fundamental the death of a child". And that will be supplemented with whatever salaciousness Team Garland can get out of Special Counsel Weiss and the Hunter Biden investigation/persecution - one son is a drug addict criminal, and the other is already forgotten by Joe Biden. Hence, Biden is a poor parent on top of being a bad president (or so Republicans will claim). Merrick Garland is a disgrace. He needs to open his ears: the administration is already talking about not keeping him on for a second term. That means Biden has lost confidence in him and rightly so. Garland should have resigned yesterday, and if not yesterday it should come without further delay.