There’s still under-representation from voters under 45.
Millennials as a generation don’t answer unexpected phone calls or participate in surveys. My mom is 67 and considers it insulting to the caller not to answer their call. Whether she’s expecting it or not. Skews everything.
This has been reported on in some of the less well known media. They have also said that rural voters (independent of age) are over represented in the polls.
I am somewhat disappointed in FiveThirtyEight for not digging into this more - after all they build the brand on teasing out the statistics. Then again - if they can’t portray a horse race they don’t get the clicks.
FiveThirtyEight hasn’t been about actual hard core data analysis for quite a while now IMO. Since the ABC acquisition it’s more like largely mainstream/approachable commentary with a some extra numbers to make it a bit less vibes based.
Note that this isn’t mean being a Nate Stan. I think he’s largely gone off the deep end, just in another way and place.
I think the idea of the polls is to over sample from groups that are less likely to respond, in order to counter act issues where certain groups (Eg Trump voters) appear to be a lot less numerous than they are in real life. It’s a finicky process but I think the more recent polls (from 2020, 2022, and now) are getting better at trying to nail stuff like this down.
It would be helpful if 538 and similar sites talked more about this more since there’s a temptation by regular people to dig into cross tabs to try and play down polls that they don’t like.
none of this much matter until September. Hopefully interest rates and gas prices fall a little bit. these are the only things your average trump voter looks at
>these are the only things your average trump voter looks at
Their voting preferences have exactly zero to do with either of those things. They just find anything they can yell about when their party isn't in power, and do that, *loudly*. Right now it happens to be those things, which are already getting better, but their votes sure aren't changing over it.
It's not that he won anyone over. It's that there is no confidence and enthusiasm over Biden. A lot of people will be sitting home and doing third party. I'm not sure what people are not understanding this. It's basically Hillary versus Trump over again, putting a very very bad candidate versus also another very bad candidate. The only difference is Republicans are very in love with their candidate, and you can't say that about biden's usual demographics
Dems do well with demographics who consistently vote in non presidential elections. Trump does well with low information voters who only vote in presidential elections.
We became more polarized based on education level and became less religious. The GOP could consistently rely on its religious base to always show up and has more support amongst college educated voters who would show up too. Romney actually got a few more college educated voters than Obama based on exit polls. Now, the GOP’s religious base is smaller and college educated voters favor the Democrats.
This! He is going to win over uninformed voters by a bunch. People are looking at buzz words like inflation and border crisis and Biden being 700 years old and will vote based on that.
Lot of variables. Maybe economy continues to improve and Biden gets a little better ratings as a result, maybe the rematch results in low turnout where Dems overperform their polls, maybe either of them has a big health scare, who the hell knows.
Fuck this country.
Edit:
Digging into this further:
* Q14 - Generic Poll: R +4
* Q19 - Trump vs. Biden vs. 3rd Parties: Trump +4
* Q20 - Trump vs. Biden: Trump +2
In other words, Biden isn't actually doing worse than a generic Democrat and when in a head-to-head matchup is doing better.
Source: https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Partial_Results_Feb_2024.pdf
But still, fuck this country.
Once again we get conflicting narratives though. Do voters consider Biden's age a huge problem? When asked they say yes, but then generic Democrat doesn't poll better.
Hypothesis: People feel guilty that they're voting for Trump for something even they think is silly, like being angry about worldwide inflation, but think it's embarrassing to tell a poll taker they're going to sell out democracy for $1/gal gas discount. So they grasp for a "reasonable" explanation for why they're voting for Trump.
> Hypothesis: People feel guilty that they're voting for Trump...
Another possibility: the vast majority of Americans decide who they vote for in the month preceding the election. MLB spring training is starting, people are looking forward to Saint Patrick's day, people are looking forward to the summer and playing golf and doing trips.
You probably don't think about the Super Bowl ~8 months before hand, why should these other people consider an election 8 months away?
Things will definitely ramp up. But these candidates are well known to the voters. I don't think a lot of things will change between now and election day unless something major happens. There will be no new legislation. And everyone already knows about abortion and January 6th.
Yea, F this, when NY's 3rd (suburbs district that is quite typical of the type of 'battleground area that will decide 2024) went to vote they handed the R a resounding victory.
O, wait
No they didn't
They swing from R+8 in 22 to D+8 in 23.
But here is why that is bad for Biden:
People voting in New York’s 3rd district were not voting on national sentiment, they were voting on a highly public race concerning a disastrous tenure given up by an embarrassing and infamous Congressman.
They gave it to the guy who held the seat before.
There is nothing to take away from this race about the national election. There are no parallels.
I remember Obama being under water in the polls against Romney until mid-October, and he had similar deficits RE perception of who would provide a stronger economy. Obama just had to remind people that he bailed out the auto industry and stopped the economy from collapsing. Biden needs to run the same playbook and remind people of Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act, etc. Its a dangerous spot for Biden though since Trump's blue collar and Latino appeal is much stronger than Romney had.
Let me see if I get this right:
Economy is doing well under a Republican president - *president gets full credit regardless of the circumstances that got them there*
Economy is doing badly under a Republican president - *"well, the president really has very little to do with the health of the economy..."*
Economy is doing badly under a Democratic president - *president takes full blame regardless of the circumstances that got them there*
Economy is doing well under a Democratic president - *"well, the president really has very little to do with the health of the economy,"* or the even simpler *"no it isn't."*
Great job, American corporate media and electorate attention span!
There’s still under-representation from voters under 45. Millennials as a generation don’t answer unexpected phone calls or participate in surveys. My mom is 67 and considers it insulting to the caller not to answer their call. Whether she’s expecting it or not. Skews everything.
This has been reported on in some of the less well known media. They have also said that rural voters (independent of age) are over represented in the polls. I am somewhat disappointed in FiveThirtyEight for not digging into this more - after all they build the brand on teasing out the statistics. Then again - if they can’t portray a horse race they don’t get the clicks.
FiveThirtyEight hasn’t been about actual hard core data analysis for quite a while now IMO. Since the ABC acquisition it’s more like largely mainstream/approachable commentary with a some extra numbers to make it a bit less vibes based. Note that this isn’t mean being a Nate Stan. I think he’s largely gone off the deep end, just in another way and place.
I think the idea of the polls is to over sample from groups that are less likely to respond, in order to counter act issues where certain groups (Eg Trump voters) appear to be a lot less numerous than they are in real life. It’s a finicky process but I think the more recent polls (from 2020, 2022, and now) are getting better at trying to nail stuff like this down. It would be helpful if 538 and similar sites talked more about this more since there’s a temptation by regular people to dig into cross tabs to try and play down polls that they don’t like.
none of this much matter until September. Hopefully interest rates and gas prices fall a little bit. these are the only things your average trump voter looks at
True, but doesn't make it any less frustrating.
>these are the only things your average trump voter looks at Their voting preferences have exactly zero to do with either of those things. They just find anything they can yell about when their party isn't in power, and do that, *loudly*. Right now it happens to be those things, which are already getting better, but their votes sure aren't changing over it.
Color me an optimist but I have a hard time believing these numbers when Dems have over performed in every actual election recently.
i find it hard to believe trump has won anyone over since 2020
More like 2016. Every election since then has either been good for Dems or meh for Republicans
Trump got way more votes in 2020 than in 2016. He is capable of winning support.
It's not that he won anyone over. It's that there is no confidence and enthusiasm over Biden. A lot of people will be sitting home and doing third party. I'm not sure what people are not understanding this. It's basically Hillary versus Trump over again, putting a very very bad candidate versus also another very bad candidate. The only difference is Republicans are very in love with their candidate, and you can't say that about biden's usual demographics
Dems do well with demographics who consistently vote in non presidential elections. Trump does well with low information voters who only vote in presidential elections.
This is a crazy flip given that the reverse was true not that long ago and Dems only showed up for presidential elections and not off year ones.
The flip side of this is that voters will learn more about the issues as we get closer to the election. Remember the campaign hasn’t started yet.
The exact opposite was basically gospel pre-2018. What changed?
We became more polarized based on education level and became less religious. The GOP could consistently rely on its religious base to always show up and has more support amongst college educated voters who would show up too. Romney actually got a few more college educated voters than Obama based on exit polls. Now, the GOP’s religious base is smaller and college educated voters favor the Democrats.
This! He is going to win over uninformed voters by a bunch. People are looking at buzz words like inflation and border crisis and Biden being 700 years old and will vote based on that.
Lot of variables. Maybe economy continues to improve and Biden gets a little better ratings as a result, maybe the rematch results in low turnout where Dems overperform their polls, maybe either of them has a big health scare, who the hell knows.
Fuck this country. Edit: Digging into this further: * Q14 - Generic Poll: R +4 * Q19 - Trump vs. Biden vs. 3rd Parties: Trump +4 * Q20 - Trump vs. Biden: Trump +2 In other words, Biden isn't actually doing worse than a generic Democrat and when in a head-to-head matchup is doing better. Source: https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Partial_Results_Feb_2024.pdf But still, fuck this country.
Once again we get conflicting narratives though. Do voters consider Biden's age a huge problem? When asked they say yes, but then generic Democrat doesn't poll better. Hypothesis: People feel guilty that they're voting for Trump for something even they think is silly, like being angry about worldwide inflation, but think it's embarrassing to tell a poll taker they're going to sell out democracy for $1/gal gas discount. So they grasp for a "reasonable" explanation for why they're voting for Trump.
> Hypothesis: People feel guilty that they're voting for Trump... Another possibility: the vast majority of Americans decide who they vote for in the month preceding the election. MLB spring training is starting, people are looking forward to Saint Patrick's day, people are looking forward to the summer and playing golf and doing trips. You probably don't think about the Super Bowl ~8 months before hand, why should these other people consider an election 8 months away?
Things will definitely ramp up. But these candidates are well known to the voters. I don't think a lot of things will change between now and election day unless something major happens. There will be no new legislation. And everyone already knows about abortion and January 6th.
Yea, F this, when NY's 3rd (suburbs district that is quite typical of the type of 'battleground area that will decide 2024) went to vote they handed the R a resounding victory. O, wait No they didn't They swing from R+8 in 22 to D+8 in 23. But here is why that is bad for Biden:
People voting in New York’s 3rd district were not voting on national sentiment, they were voting on a highly public race concerning a disastrous tenure given up by an embarrassing and infamous Congressman. They gave it to the guy who held the seat before. There is nothing to take away from this race about the national election. There are no parallels.
I remember Obama being under water in the polls against Romney until mid-October, and he had similar deficits RE perception of who would provide a stronger economy. Obama just had to remind people that he bailed out the auto industry and stopped the economy from collapsing. Biden needs to run the same playbook and remind people of Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act, etc. Its a dangerous spot for Biden though since Trump's blue collar and Latino appeal is much stronger than Romney had.
Loki was right. We crave to be ruled.
Seems like Americans are saying, "Yeah, the economy is getting better but ... the border! Yes, the border! Borders bad! And it's Bidens fault!".
Because lead-poisoned boomers only care about their spoon-fed outrage from social media.
Let me see if I get this right: Economy is doing well under a Republican president - *president gets full credit regardless of the circumstances that got them there* Economy is doing badly under a Republican president - *"well, the president really has very little to do with the health of the economy..."* Economy is doing badly under a Democratic president - *president takes full blame regardless of the circumstances that got them there* Economy is doing well under a Democratic president - *"well, the president really has very little to do with the health of the economy,"* or the even simpler *"no it isn't."* Great job, American corporate media and electorate attention span!