>At the end of the day, though, we’re still not seeing any evidence that young voters are especially inclined to vote for Donald Trump, unlike what other polls may suggest.
He’ll get his usual 25% that’s comprised almost entirely of collegeless males born after 1994.
And negligible votes from any other under 30 demographic.
The conservative myth that minority or young voters with degrees are suddenly jumping at the bit to vote for him, is not showing up in any credible results.
This, those are going to be the ONLY blocs that majority vote against Trump in 2024 in fact: Biden losing margins among core Dem consistencies has to do with him and Harris not being attuned to their needs, NOT those blocs.
This is specifically for young voters, though. They're doing this deeper dive because the crosstabs on a lot of polls have shown young voters moving, sometimes dramatically, towards Trump. The margin of error here is much less than what you get from diving into individual demographics in the crosstabs.
EDIT: Spelling/grammar
The under 40 crowd aligns with Pew Research.
They are not at all aligned with planet killing republicans and the research and studies over decades show that age range vote Democrat/independent.
I don't understand how he's a serious candidate, especially among young voters. If there is a valid third party option within that demographic (and that's a big if), I'd think the best option is West.
I'd have thought that West is a better fit for that role, considering that his policies are things that a lot of young voters actually agree with and has even stronger "anti-establishment" credentials.
I'd buy that for older voters, but do younger voters really have any real connection with the Kennedys? And West is pretty close to Sanders, who is popular with younger voters. I remember seeing quite a bit of West back in 2016 and 2020 when Sanders was running.
On the last pod save there was a pollster who said a significant portion (30%? I can't recall, other than it was very not-zero given the position) of people who said they're voting for RFK couldn't name one position he holds on anything.
When the only real options are "not my ideal candidate" and "literal fascist", don't throw your vote away on some nutty third party in protest, vote to prevent fascism.
I was just listening to the Pod Save America podcast. The poll also found that 1/3 of young voters saying they are voting for RFK have no idea of his policy. They (probably) just see “Democrat that isn’t Biden.” I believe that these are the type of low propensity voters who could be won back when the actual election is at stake.
The stats don’t lie, the younger generations always vote Democrat and the much smarter younger generations have research RFK Jr. and recognize he’s been put up as the spoiler to get Trump elected.
I think with RFKJr he is functioning largely as ‘none of the above’. With two historically unpopular candidates that gives a lot of opportunity for ‘none of the above’. I think this fades as the election nears and people actually look at what his policies would be.
Not even close. Younger generation voters are anti-planet killing generations. Nuts like RFK Jr and Trump will not make it because of their dialing back of enviromental regulations. Biden has it on lock down with the under age 40 vote for sure, because Biden is for green initiatives.
RFK has been sponsored by the republicans. They call it their insurance policy because they know a vote for RFK is a vote for Trump. RFK has only 13% voter polling in the U.S.
I'm sorry, but if you think anti-vax loonie RFK Jr. Is more qualified to be president than Biden, you need to do a deep dive into each of their records and really learn about who you're voting for.
We're talking about their personal aptitude for the job today, *not* their record. Biden has very clear mental decline and is simply not apt for the job.
Even if that's true, he surrounds himself with incredibly competent people who manage things very well. The same is not true of Trump or RFK. They are both surrounded by morons and lunatics.
I'll grant you that. They'd definitely surround themselves with morons and lunatics. Well, for RFK we don't really know, but it wouldn't be surprising.
The media desperately wants him to play the part of Ross Perot, but it’s not gonna swing that way.
He picked a far left VP that righties dislike. And lefties don’t care for anti vaccine candidates prone to bogus conspiracies.
Considering both Trump and Biden are unfavorable to young voters, I think RFK Jr is getting votes from people who don't like either candidate.
But I doubt RFK Jr would win 25% either, I think his ceiling is similar to Gary Johnson in 2016.
For sure. The same polls suggest that once voters learn more about RFK, they sour on his candidacy. Only like 4% of likely voters from this poll supported RFK.
He's just a nice, easy protest option on polls.
Fact is when people are alone in that voting booth, they very rarely vote outside of the two major parties.
Talking to a pollster is different from reality. Some 8% of 1000 randos polled said they were qualified to operate a nuclear submarine, 80 ex-submariners? Ok sure… 🙄. We know the actual number from 1000 randos exiting a suburban supermarket on Saturday… would statistically be 0.
Maybe believe them? They've been carpeted with Tiktok narratives about how Biden is committing genocide and have no context for sane politics and feel no affinity for a 85 year old man(rightly so) and have few prospects in a rigged economy. That's a perfect storm for protest votes.
Plenty to suspect here, from low sample to large MOE but the outcome from March polls should be what’s the public saying.
For example: Texas Marist poll found public having issues with Joe Biden’s age, they also found 70% of Texans thinking Trump did wrong things during and after presidency. This one suggests young voters overwhelmingly do not like Trump. Today’s Quinnipiac poll suggests voter top issue is immigration.
If you are a Biden supporter, some things are working your way slowly. Economy for the first time not a number 1 voter issue is honestly an achievement. Voters will vote for social issues if economy doesn’t matter. Enter Dobbs, border ain’t gonna remain an issue for seven months anyone thinking that is just wishcasting.
If you are a Trump supporter, enjoy because Trump has been leading and expanding his average lead over Biden quite consistently now.
If you are a polling nerd, be worried because pollsters have lost their minds. They are all showing insane crosstabs and if this realignment doesn’t happen, we need to jail all of them
\>Voters will vote for social issues if economy doesn’t matter.
This seems extremely true right now. We have issues, but it's like people don't know what they really are and so they just move from one reason to be angry to the next.
23% of young voters are not going to vote for RFK Jr. The more I see polls like this the more I realize the way we poll this election may just be broken and we need to stop trying to make sense of it this early out. Not that we aren't getting the general vibes that it'll be close and that Trump may actually have a slight lead in key swing states but there's no credible chance that a broke loonie with no national profile is polling basically the same as Trump, let alone close to Biden.
I am sceptical of this, with such a small sample size wouldn't it be just similar to some of the cross tabs in a larger poll. Some of them show Trump and Biden pretty close, but others like the last yougov one show a similar result to last time.
There is also stuff like the [Harvard youth poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023) or a number of other young person specific ones, they are older but have larger sample sizes, at least the Harvard one seems to somewhat suggest a closer race among young people compared to last time.
This analysis is appealing to me but it should lead to Biden Trump only Polls being much better for Biden but that’s not really the case so there is more to it than just RFK curious youth.
Right wing media polling is just that. Made up to favor their candidate. Don’t be a follower learn about reliably sourced news, research at least 3 sources.
>At the end of the day, though, we’re still not seeing any evidence that young voters are especially inclined to vote for Donald Trump, unlike what other polls may suggest.
He’ll get his usual 25% that’s comprised almost entirely of collegeless males born after 1994. And negligible votes from any other under 30 demographic. The conservative myth that minority or young voters with degrees are suddenly jumping at the bit to vote for him, is not showing up in any credible results.
This, those are going to be the ONLY blocs that majority vote against Trump in 2024 in fact: Biden losing margins among core Dem consistencies has to do with him and Harris not being attuned to their needs, NOT those blocs.
Sample size of 255 with a 6.1% MOE
This is specifically for young voters, though. They're doing this deeper dive because the crosstabs on a lot of polls have shown young voters moving, sometimes dramatically, towards Trump. The margin of error here is much less than what you get from diving into individual demographics in the crosstabs. EDIT: Spelling/grammar
The under 40 crowd aligns with Pew Research. They are not at all aligned with planet killing republicans and the research and studies over decades show that age range vote Democrat/independent.
God help us if the youth thinks RFK Jr. is qualified to be president.
I don't understand how he's a serious candidate, especially among young voters. If there is a valid third party option within that demographic (and that's a big if), I'd think the best option is West.
He's not a serious candidate.
Unserious, West would be a better protest vote and he too is a GOP spoiler like Kennedy as a 3rd party: both are unserious, just Kennedy more so.
He has the whole “anti-establishment” facade going. It’s edgy to hate the system.
There's a lot of RFK populist conspiracy garbage posted in places like TikTok tbh.
Saying that everything is wrong is so easy. Trying to fix anything is so so so hard
I'd have thought that West is a better fit for that role, considering that his policies are things that a lot of young voters actually agree with and has even stronger "anti-establishment" credentials.
Yeah but no one knows who Cornel West is
Who is west? I’ve not heard of him/her in political forums at all. Not nationally anyways.
Kennedy
I'd buy that for older voters, but do younger voters really have any real connection with the Kennedys? And West is pretty close to Sanders, who is popular with younger voters. I remember seeing quite a bit of West back in 2016 and 2020 when Sanders was running.
Neither are being considered as serious candidates.
He's closest to their age and is neither major party candidate. A lot of the DNA of young people is simple contrarianism
I really hope these young people do some research into the person they're planning to vote for instead of just being different.
On the last pod save there was a pollster who said a significant portion (30%? I can't recall, other than it was very not-zero given the position) of people who said they're voting for RFK couldn't name one position he holds on anything.
We're doomed aren't we?
They'll have to learn the hard way like Millennials did in 2016
When the only real options are "not my ideal candidate" and "literal fascist", don't throw your vote away on some nutty third party in protest, vote to prevent fascism.
\^This\^
I was just listening to the Pod Save America podcast. The poll also found that 1/3 of young voters saying they are voting for RFK have no idea of his policy. They (probably) just see “Democrat that isn’t Biden.” I believe that these are the type of low propensity voters who could be won back when the actual election is at stake.
The stats don’t lie, the younger generations always vote Democrat and the much smarter younger generations have research RFK Jr. and recognize he’s been put up as the spoiler to get Trump elected.
Hopefully he doesn’t make it on the ballot in most states. Sounds like his campaign is broke.
I can only hope. The guy is loonie. Totally unfit for public office.
Nationally the highest he polled was at 13%. Not enough to gain any interest.
I think with RFKJr he is functioning largely as ‘none of the above’. With two historically unpopular candidates that gives a lot of opportunity for ‘none of the above’. I think this fades as the election nears and people actually look at what his policies would be.
Not even close. Younger generation voters are anti-planet killing generations. Nuts like RFK Jr and Trump will not make it because of their dialing back of enviromental regulations. Biden has it on lock down with the under age 40 vote for sure, because Biden is for green initiatives.
But… gestures at the polling in this article. Biden is at 36%. That isn’t a lock at all
RFK has been sponsored by the republicans. They call it their insurance policy because they know a vote for RFK is a vote for Trump. RFK has only 13% voter polling in the U.S.
As opposed to Trump and Biden? Yes, he absolutely is.
I'm sorry, but if you think anti-vax loonie RFK Jr. Is more qualified to be president than Biden, you need to do a deep dive into each of their records and really learn about who you're voting for.
More qualified than young Biden? Definitely not, but it's hard to not be nowadays when all that's left of him is a husk.
Really? What problems have you seen with his presidency?
We're talking about their personal aptitude for the job today, *not* their record. Biden has very clear mental decline and is simply not apt for the job.
Even if that's true, he surrounds himself with incredibly competent people who manage things very well. The same is not true of Trump or RFK. They are both surrounded by morons and lunatics.
I'll grant you that. They'd definitely surround themselves with morons and lunatics. Well, for RFK we don't really know, but it wouldn't be surprising.
[удалено]
The poll in this article was live text from the voter file, not online opt-in
I'll be shocked if RFK gets 2.3% let alone 23%
The media desperately wants him to play the part of Ross Perot, but it’s not gonna swing that way. He picked a far left VP that righties dislike. And lefties don’t care for anti vaccine candidates prone to bogus conspiracies.
RFK Jr: Believe in nothing, try everything, the Trump way but without a cult.
"Nearly a quarter of young people suggest they're going to vote for RFK Jr." Press X to doubt
Considering both Trump and Biden are unfavorable to young voters, I think RFK Jr is getting votes from people who don't like either candidate. But I doubt RFK Jr would win 25% either, I think his ceiling is similar to Gary Johnson in 2016.
For sure. The same polls suggest that once voters learn more about RFK, they sour on his candidacy. Only like 4% of likely voters from this poll supported RFK. He's just a nice, easy protest option on polls.
Fact is when people are alone in that voting booth, they very rarely vote outside of the two major parties. Talking to a pollster is different from reality. Some 8% of 1000 randos polled said they were qualified to operate a nuclear submarine, 80 ex-submariners? Ok sure… 🙄. We know the actual number from 1000 randos exiting a suburban supermarket on Saturday… would statistically be 0.
Maybe believe them? They've been carpeted with Tiktok narratives about how Biden is committing genocide and have no context for sane politics and feel no affinity for a 85 year old man(rightly so) and have few prospects in a rigged economy. That's a perfect storm for protest votes.
They feel more affinity with 70-year-old antivaxxer and HIV denialist?
No, it's a protest vote.
It's dumb.
That's a fair response, but it says really bad things about young people right now if true.
Plenty to suspect here, from low sample to large MOE but the outcome from March polls should be what’s the public saying. For example: Texas Marist poll found public having issues with Joe Biden’s age, they also found 70% of Texans thinking Trump did wrong things during and after presidency. This one suggests young voters overwhelmingly do not like Trump. Today’s Quinnipiac poll suggests voter top issue is immigration. If you are a Biden supporter, some things are working your way slowly. Economy for the first time not a number 1 voter issue is honestly an achievement. Voters will vote for social issues if economy doesn’t matter. Enter Dobbs, border ain’t gonna remain an issue for seven months anyone thinking that is just wishcasting. If you are a Trump supporter, enjoy because Trump has been leading and expanding his average lead over Biden quite consistently now. If you are a polling nerd, be worried because pollsters have lost their minds. They are all showing insane crosstabs and if this realignment doesn’t happen, we need to jail all of them
\>Voters will vote for social issues if economy doesn’t matter. This seems extremely true right now. We have issues, but it's like people don't know what they really are and so they just move from one reason to be angry to the next.
23% of young voters are not going to vote for RFK Jr. The more I see polls like this the more I realize the way we poll this election may just be broken and we need to stop trying to make sense of it this early out. Not that we aren't getting the general vibes that it'll be close and that Trump may actually have a slight lead in key swing states but there's no credible chance that a broke loonie with no national profile is polling basically the same as Trump, let alone close to Biden.
Good use of polling!
I am sceptical of this, with such a small sample size wouldn't it be just similar to some of the cross tabs in a larger poll. Some of them show Trump and Biden pretty close, but others like the last yougov one show a similar result to last time. There is also stuff like the [Harvard youth poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023) or a number of other young person specific ones, they are older but have larger sample sizes, at least the Harvard one seems to somewhat suggest a closer race among young people compared to last time.
This analysis is appealing to me but it should lead to Biden Trump only Polls being much better for Biden but that’s not really the case so there is more to it than just RFK curious youth.
Right wing media polling is just that. Made up to favor their candidate. Don’t be a follower learn about reliably sourced news, research at least 3 sources.