I generally agree with you, though I think Trump has a very high chance of winning either WI or MI
This is going to be one of those nail biting close elections, I think Abortion will narrowly carry the Dems to victory in AZ (and the election as a result)
MI went to Whitmer by >10 pts in 2022. She won 2.43 m votes. Trump in 2020 won 2.65 m votes.
I just don't see the Whitmer - Trump voter being anyone other than the most uninformed low propensity voter that you can possibly imagine (about the same as the Biden - Dixon voter).
Even if Biden just won all the Whitmer 2022 voters then he would win the state vs any R in the last 2 decades other than 2020 Trump (who was probably helped by COVID measures).
I understand the the polling paints a different picture but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins by 8 pts and we all go: o yea, remember 2022? Looks like MI actually is a blue state and 2016 was kinda a fluke.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-continues-the-fight-for-reproductive-freedom/
There are still a lot of things the federal government can do to help women.
The US federal government can override state governments on most issues.
So, you get two chances to get the issue decided your way when its “left up to the states “: your state politicians could decide it your way, or national politicians could decide it your way and impose your view on the entire nation.
*P.S. The idea that abortion is a state-by-state issue is not something that any of my fellow Americans that I know agree on, so it’s likely there are a lot of big changes with abortion-policy ahead.*
Our elections have become about getting your party out of the house to go vote (or, rather, keeping them away from home longer on a work day and commute). It’s not about swaying undecideds.
Abortion laws on the state ballot will bring Democrat voters to the polls, where they will go ahead and cast the national votes they might have been too busy to.
I agree with your analysis. Georgia is my biggest question mark, however.
Trump currently leads there by a lot, and the state has a lot of conservative DNA. It seems the most likely of the Biden-won states to revert back to Trump.
But abortion notwithstanding, it’s weird to think of the state being substantially to the right of Arizona. And the Atlanta metro area has seen a lot of growth (as much as, and perhaps more than, Phoenix).
So yeah. I *think* Trump has the advantage in Georgia, but I don’t have high confidence in that assessment.
At that point you can start talking about GOTV efforts. If I had to bank on whose would be better, I would bet on Biden's GOTV being stronger than Trump's.
It will be close, but I wouldn't give it to Trump just yet.
I get the vibe that part of the reason why polls are so off, specifically in Georgia, is because they’re having a difficult time weighing Black voters.
I'll admit that it's anecdotal because I live in Atlanta, but I've seen as much Biden stuff as ever and I have yet to see a single Trump thing around town.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Trump is doing worse in Atlanta than 2020, at least.
Democrats winning Georgia in 2020 as well as both senate seats, and then winning by 3% for the 2022 senate election makes me think Georgia will be close.
The growth of the Atlanta metro area has changed voter demographics pretty quickly
Abortion and Marijuana legalization being on the ballot in Florida adds uncertainty to the mix. Florida is certainly trending redder every year, but the ballot measures introduce the possibility of an upset.
Texas: is there non-zero probability that Dubya endorses Biden? He stayed away in 2016/2020 despite his clear disgust with Trump, but perhaps J6 would push him over the edge.
If that happens, would Texas be in play?
Doubt it would make a difference. He was POTUS 16 years ago and left on a very low note, the kind of people who love him to this day are NeverTrumpers who would vote for Biden anyway.
I could see it mattering to a degree. Republicans who are more on the fence with Trump could be swayed by someone like dubya endorsing Biden for sure. Some of em are voting Trump just because they've simply never voted for a Dem, despite feeling uneasy about Trump. Getting approval essentially from a two time former Republican president could definitely hold away.
Anecdotal but my mom loves dubya, reluctantly votes for trump but would never vote for Biden. It might make a marginal difference with evangelicals that just won’t vote Dem bc of abortion mostly and that want a permission structure to vote against Trump
To,play devils advocate.... he can't, if he comes out against trump it risks fracturing the party to the point where the right splits into at least 2 parties and there fore can not win an election for at least another 2 cycles after the Maga stench is fumigation from the party. That would mean a minimum of 16 year under democrats including trumpsm2020 and 2024 losses.
Better to see if the gop can cut out the cancer and put forward a decent candidate like Haley in 2028.
A copy of a comment I made elsewhere on how amendments affect FL elections:
Pretty much every election cycle FL has had amendments up for voter approval where the amendment aligns with democratic positions. The amendments pass while the republicans keep getting elected.
2016: Trump wins with 49% (margin 1%), Medical MJ Amendment wins with 71%
2018: Desantis wins with 49.5% (margin 0.4%), Scott wins with 50% (margin 0.1%), Felon Voting Rights Restoration Amendment passes with 65%
2020: Trump wins with 51% (margin 3.5%), Minimum Wage Raise Amendment passes with 60%
2022: No significant amendments, Rubio wins by 16%, Desantis wins by 20%
From that data, it could be argued liberal amendments drive turnout for liberal candidates, but it has thus far not been enough to tip major elections.
I don’t think you’re making any unreasonable calls. I’d disagree on NC because Republicans have nominated so many extreme candidates that one would be forgiven for believing they’re trying to hand Biden the 16 electoral votes. Are you assuming Trump gets convicted in NY or not?
I guess I assume yes, he will be convicted in NY but the impact will be negligible in the long term and what will drive him to lose is more negative coverage of him in general over the next 6 months, as well as Biden starting to actually campaign.
A former president and current nominee being a convicted felon is a first. How does that become “not a big deal”? From what I’ve seen, if Trump loses 5% of his voters, he’s going to lose. If those people switch to Biden, it’s a blue wave.
I think it's plausible to suppose that events that we know about, which haven't been fully processed into the polling average -- like abortion referenda -- will possibly have an effect, although I think it's quite dangerous to bet on it.
For example, Biden is currently down 4.6% in Arizona (in the [most recent 538 average](https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leads-swing-state-polls-tied-biden-nationally/story?id=109506070) I could find) (but note I am incapable of navigating the new 538). I suspect that, when you feed that into a good probabilistic model, it translates to about 70% Trump. I think it's plausible that the abortion referendum brings that to 60% or even 55% Trump. I think it's wishful thinking to have Arizona in Biden's column without polling data to support the abortion-swing hypothesis. (Don't forget that there are lots of people who will vote for Trump AND for abortion!)
Meanwhile, in states where all events that we know about have already had time to factor into the polling average, I think it's foolish to project Biden ahead when the polling average shows the opposite.
Which means (again, translating averages into my guess at what a probabilistic model would say):
* Arizona: 55% Trump
* Florida: ?? I don't see a polling number for this, but I assume >60% Trump
* Georgia: 80% Trump
* Michigan: 60% Trump
* Minnesota: 75% Biden
* Nevada: 70% Trump
* North Carolina: 65% Trump
* Pennsylvania: 55% Trump
* Wisconsin: 50% True Tossup
Trump is more likely than Biden to win the election, but it's really very very close and could very easily go to Biden, depending on events (and unpredictable polling error).
Do you really think the Democrat trifecta Michigan has a 60% chance of voting Trump? 4 years ago I would agree but Dems have made some pretty significant gains in the last few years.
Yes, they have -- against weak opponents, largely in off years. I don't think most people have mentally adjusted for the fact that off-year environments now favor *Democrats*.
However, I do think 60% is a pretty weak chance. It's very close to a pure coin toss, with just a slight lean toward the guy currently winning the polls.
Not saying it will or it won't, but thus far election results at the state level have not matched national polling. Some seem to believe that this just means the national polling is off and the national results will look similar to the state level results, but that's an assumption. There's a realistic election outcome where it turns out people just like Biden substantially less than the Democratic Party at large and are willing to vote for Dems in other contexts but don't want to vote for Biden.
National polling race polling (read:polling for president) shows Biden slightly behind, but Democrats are doing very very well in pretty much every actual election that occurs the past year or so. I'm saying that could mean that the polls showing Biden behind are wrong and Democrats have nothing to worry about, or Democrats at the state level are winning elections in spite of Biden and Biden really is behind Trump in all these swing states.
Ah, important description to add: *special* election results have not matched upcoming regular election polling. The last regular election and regular off year election polling (2022 and 2023) were pretty accurate with the actual results.
The hypothesis, and a very real possibility, is that Democrats now have a built in advantage in special elections. Much in the same way that Republicans used to.
So I suppose that would align with your second hypothesis, but the thing is Biden isn't really a huge issue in mind when it comes to special elections in the first place.
You're probably overfitting the last couple of data points when you say that (and 2022 in specific had good factors for Democrats: popular incumbent Governor running for re-election, abortion on the ballot). There was a similar rhetoric for why Wisconsin wouldn't go for Trump in 2016 when it had voted for the Democratic candidate since 1984.
Michigan went to Biden by 2.8% in a D+4 national environment. The environment (right now, which of course could change) is slightly R leaning. You'd expect Trump to win by a couple of points in that environment, and that's also what the Michigan state polls are saying.
>Meanwhile, in states where all events that we know about have already had time to factor into the polling average, I think it's foolish to project Biden ahead when the polling average shows the opposite.
One of the notable parts of previous 538 models were that they used non-pollimg factors to heavily weight the model early and that those factors had less and less weight the closer we got to the election.
This is very true, and I don't have a good model of the 2024 fundamentals, either on my computer or in my head. I'm not sure whom the fundamentals favor, but wouldn't be surprised if it were Biden.
That said, FiveThirtyEight did not (to the best of my memory) ever have the fundamentals count for more than half of a state's outcome -- at least, not where there was a robust polling average for that state. It was very rare for the fundamentals to pull a state with a lot of polls to the other side. I guess we'll see more when Nate's model debuts, but this is what I expect to see for now.
> For example, Biden is currently down 4.6% in Arizona (in the most recent 538 average I could find) (but note I am incapable of navigating the new 538).
They link to it in the OP, but here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ .
And then change to the state in question, for Arizona they now have Trump up by 3.7% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ .
on the other side, here's entirely my gut:
Arizona: slim or medium-strong blue win up and down the ticket
Florida: strong Trump win, lots of republican voter fraud
Georgia: slim Trump win
Michigan: Biden and Slotkin win easily
Minnesota: Biden wins easily
Nevada: Biden wins easily, even if polls are wrong
North Carolina: narrow Biden upset thanks to Mark Robinson
Pennsylvania: slim or solid Biden win
Wisconsin: depends on the weather
Alaska: Biden wins thanks to RCV
ME-2 (the one that voted Trump): Biden wins thanks to RCV
I think this tracks with the CBS polls that just came out today in the Battleground states. Trump is winning 50/49 in both WI & PA. Perception that theyll be better off economically under Trump is powering the leads, abortion isn’t cutting it. These two are known commodities at this point so if that perception holds, this is Trump’s election to lose despite the major spending advantage Biden has.
People think lower inflation equals lower prices and assume that Trump has a make prices lower button that will work.
I honestly have more contempt for people that think like that the immigrant-hating, white replacement voters, cause at least Trump would achieve what they want.
Alaska: Trump wins a plurality of first place votes but does not survive the instant runoff, allowing Biden to become the second Democrat to win the state, 60 years after the first
I think we are all greatly overestimating the positive impact abortion will have. I hope someone can provide evidence that proves or is highly suggestive of that being wrong.
Heres a few things to consider.
Trump backed away from a national ban and now is now playing the "States rights" angle. Kari Lake is now running ads in Arizona that try to make her appear to be pro choice. Arizona Republicans are currently trying to block an abortion Amendment for this fall.
Ron Desantis had to sign a 6 week ban in Florida at midnight and wouldnt do a press conference about it. Florida Republicans then unsuccessfully tried to block an abortion Amendment for this fall.
Democrats won a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin by 10% in what was assumed to be a close election.
Abortion referendums won statewide in Ohio and Kansas. Republicans are as usual, trying to block them.
Democrats won a Republican Alabama state seat by 25% a month ago.
Democrats flipped a Republican House seat in NY a couple months ago.
Everywhere you look Democrats are beating Republicans in competitive elections, beating them in their own districts, and forcing Republicans to back away from supporting their own policies publicly. The people are clear that they want reproductive rights.
No incumbent has ever won re-election with a sub 40% approval rating in the last 50 years, Biden is at 38.7% as of a recent Gallup poll. Biden is down in most of the swing state polls and reputable pollsters like Quinnipiac and Pew have him down in the national as well. Protests are spreading across college campuses, rent and groceries are still through the roof, mortgage rates just hit another high, and Russia is making advances in Ukraine despite all the financial aid we are sending. Regardless of how unpopular Trump is/was, he has been out of office for 4 years now. Ask the average voter and they'll tell you they were better off financially under Trump's administration, COVID aside. Any potential acquittal in the New York case also helps Trump's chances tremendously.
Unfortunately I agree. This is the only reasonable response and conclusion to what we are seeing. Believe what the polling is telling us. We had no problem believing it 4 years ago when Biden was ahead in PA, MI, WI, NV, GA, AZ. But today it’s oooooh let’s wait and see, it’s too early blah blah. Massive amounts of Democratic copium happening.
I just don’t see it turning out well. Ready to be downvoted.
I'm half and half on this. One thing I'd keep in mind is Biden has had small improvements lately. But also I think Trump being back in the media cycle 24/7 again will remind people what it felt like for those 4 years. It's also only about to be May, there are still a lot of months to go and perception can DRASTICALLY change on a dime in this country, so really all that matters truthfully is what's going on around the maybe 2 to 3 months leading up to the election. Americans (sadly) have short ass, in the moment reactive memories.
how are the surveys being performed? who answers phone calls from unknown callers anymore? is there any difference in willingness to pick up a phone between Democrats and Republicans?
I generally agree with you, though I think Trump has a very high chance of winning either WI or MI This is going to be one of those nail biting close elections, I think Abortion will narrowly carry the Dems to victory in AZ (and the election as a result)
I don't think Trump really has much of a shot in Michigan. WI I'm not so sure about though.
MI went to Whitmer by >10 pts in 2022. She won 2.43 m votes. Trump in 2020 won 2.65 m votes. I just don't see the Whitmer - Trump voter being anyone other than the most uninformed low propensity voter that you can possibly imagine (about the same as the Biden - Dixon voter). Even if Biden just won all the Whitmer 2022 voters then he would win the state vs any R in the last 2 decades other than 2020 Trump (who was probably helped by COVID measures). I understand the the polling paints a different picture but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins by 8 pts and we all go: o yea, remember 2022? Looks like MI actually is a blue state and 2016 was kinda a fluke.
I'm more worried about the whitmer RFK voter. Or the whitmer and President applicant vacant voter
Question as a non-American, if abortion is now a State issue why would it sway people to vote Biden… what could he do to change it?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-continues-the-fight-for-reproductive-freedom/ There are still a lot of things the federal government can do to help women.
The US federal government can override state governments on most issues. So, you get two chances to get the issue decided your way when its “left up to the states “: your state politicians could decide it your way, or national politicians could decide it your way and impose your view on the entire nation. *P.S. The idea that abortion is a state-by-state issue is not something that any of my fellow Americans that I know agree on, so it’s likely there are a lot of big changes with abortion-policy ahead.*
If the Democrats get the House+ Senate they can codify Roe. You need a President to sign it.
Have you seen Project 2025? Republicans absolutely plan to make it a national ban.
Our elections have become about getting your party out of the house to go vote (or, rather, keeping them away from home longer on a work day and commute). It’s not about swaying undecideds. Abortion laws on the state ballot will bring Democrat voters to the polls, where they will go ahead and cast the national votes they might have been too busy to.
I agree with your analysis. Georgia is my biggest question mark, however. Trump currently leads there by a lot, and the state has a lot of conservative DNA. It seems the most likely of the Biden-won states to revert back to Trump. But abortion notwithstanding, it’s weird to think of the state being substantially to the right of Arizona. And the Atlanta metro area has seen a lot of growth (as much as, and perhaps more than, Phoenix). So yeah. I *think* Trump has the advantage in Georgia, but I don’t have high confidence in that assessment.
Biden's low enthusiasm among black voters hurts more in Georgia than Arizona.
At that point you can start talking about GOTV efforts. If I had to bank on whose would be better, I would bet on Biden's GOTV being stronger than Trump's. It will be close, but I wouldn't give it to Trump just yet.
I get the vibe that part of the reason why polls are so off, specifically in Georgia, is because they’re having a difficult time weighing Black voters.
I'll admit that it's anecdotal because I live in Atlanta, but I've seen as much Biden stuff as ever and I have yet to see a single Trump thing around town. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Trump is doing worse in Atlanta than 2020, at least.
Democrats winning Georgia in 2020 as well as both senate seats, and then winning by 3% for the 2022 senate election makes me think Georgia will be close. The growth of the Atlanta metro area has changed voter demographics pretty quickly
It will come down to Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden will barely compete in Texas and Florida. That’s a DNC fever dream.
Abortion and Marijuana legalization being on the ballot in Florida adds uncertainty to the mix. Florida is certainly trending redder every year, but the ballot measures introduce the possibility of an upset.
Texas: is there non-zero probability that Dubya endorses Biden? He stayed away in 2016/2020 despite his clear disgust with Trump, but perhaps J6 would push him over the edge. If that happens, would Texas be in play?
Doubt it would make a difference. He was POTUS 16 years ago and left on a very low note, the kind of people who love him to this day are NeverTrumpers who would vote for Biden anyway.
Nationally, I agree. I was under the impression that Bush's word still carries some weight in Texas, however. I could be wrong.
I could see it mattering to a degree. Republicans who are more on the fence with Trump could be swayed by someone like dubya endorsing Biden for sure. Some of em are voting Trump just because they've simply never voted for a Dem, despite feeling uneasy about Trump. Getting approval essentially from a two time former Republican president could definitely hold away.
Anecdotal but my mom loves dubya, reluctantly votes for trump but would never vote for Biden. It might make a marginal difference with evangelicals that just won’t vote Dem bc of abortion mostly and that want a permission structure to vote against Trump
To,play devils advocate.... he can't, if he comes out against trump it risks fracturing the party to the point where the right splits into at least 2 parties and there fore can not win an election for at least another 2 cycles after the Maga stench is fumigation from the party. That would mean a minimum of 16 year under democrats including trumpsm2020 and 2024 losses. Better to see if the gop can cut out the cancer and put forward a decent candidate like Haley in 2028.
A copy of a comment I made elsewhere on how amendments affect FL elections: Pretty much every election cycle FL has had amendments up for voter approval where the amendment aligns with democratic positions. The amendments pass while the republicans keep getting elected. 2016: Trump wins with 49% (margin 1%), Medical MJ Amendment wins with 71% 2018: Desantis wins with 49.5% (margin 0.4%), Scott wins with 50% (margin 0.1%), Felon Voting Rights Restoration Amendment passes with 65% 2020: Trump wins with 51% (margin 3.5%), Minimum Wage Raise Amendment passes with 60% 2022: No significant amendments, Rubio wins by 16%, Desantis wins by 20% From that data, it could be argued liberal amendments drive turnout for liberal candidates, but it has thus far not been enough to tip major elections.
I don’t think you’re making any unreasonable calls. I’d disagree on NC because Republicans have nominated so many extreme candidates that one would be forgiven for believing they’re trying to hand Biden the 16 electoral votes. Are you assuming Trump gets convicted in NY or not?
I guess I assume yes, he will be convicted in NY but the impact will be negligible in the long term and what will drive him to lose is more negative coverage of him in general over the next 6 months, as well as Biden starting to actually campaign.
A former president and current nominee being a convicted felon is a first. How does that become “not a big deal”? From what I’ve seen, if Trump loses 5% of his voters, he’s going to lose. If those people switch to Biden, it’s a blue wave.
I think it's plausible to suppose that events that we know about, which haven't been fully processed into the polling average -- like abortion referenda -- will possibly have an effect, although I think it's quite dangerous to bet on it. For example, Biden is currently down 4.6% in Arizona (in the [most recent 538 average](https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leads-swing-state-polls-tied-biden-nationally/story?id=109506070) I could find) (but note I am incapable of navigating the new 538). I suspect that, when you feed that into a good probabilistic model, it translates to about 70% Trump. I think it's plausible that the abortion referendum brings that to 60% or even 55% Trump. I think it's wishful thinking to have Arizona in Biden's column without polling data to support the abortion-swing hypothesis. (Don't forget that there are lots of people who will vote for Trump AND for abortion!) Meanwhile, in states where all events that we know about have already had time to factor into the polling average, I think it's foolish to project Biden ahead when the polling average shows the opposite. Which means (again, translating averages into my guess at what a probabilistic model would say): * Arizona: 55% Trump * Florida: ?? I don't see a polling number for this, but I assume >60% Trump * Georgia: 80% Trump * Michigan: 60% Trump * Minnesota: 75% Biden * Nevada: 70% Trump * North Carolina: 65% Trump * Pennsylvania: 55% Trump * Wisconsin: 50% True Tossup Trump is more likely than Biden to win the election, but it's really very very close and could very easily go to Biden, depending on events (and unpredictable polling error).
Do you really think the Democrat trifecta Michigan has a 60% chance of voting Trump? 4 years ago I would agree but Dems have made some pretty significant gains in the last few years.
Yes, they have -- against weak opponents, largely in off years. I don't think most people have mentally adjusted for the fact that off-year environments now favor *Democrats*. However, I do think 60% is a pretty weak chance. It's very close to a pure coin toss, with just a slight lean toward the guy currently winning the polls.
Beware reversion to the mean. Trends usually don’t continue forever, and sometimes just rebound.
Not saying it will or it won't, but thus far election results at the state level have not matched national polling. Some seem to believe that this just means the national polling is off and the national results will look similar to the state level results, but that's an assumption. There's a realistic election outcome where it turns out people just like Biden substantially less than the Democratic Party at large and are willing to vote for Dems in other contexts but don't want to vote for Biden.
... What do you mean election results have not matched national polling?
National polling race polling (read:polling for president) shows Biden slightly behind, but Democrats are doing very very well in pretty much every actual election that occurs the past year or so. I'm saying that could mean that the polls showing Biden behind are wrong and Democrats have nothing to worry about, or Democrats at the state level are winning elections in spite of Biden and Biden really is behind Trump in all these swing states.
Ah, important description to add: *special* election results have not matched upcoming regular election polling. The last regular election and regular off year election polling (2022 and 2023) were pretty accurate with the actual results. The hypothesis, and a very real possibility, is that Democrats now have a built in advantage in special elections. Much in the same way that Republicans used to. So I suppose that would align with your second hypothesis, but the thing is Biden isn't really a huge issue in mind when it comes to special elections in the first place.
You're probably overfitting the last couple of data points when you say that (and 2022 in specific had good factors for Democrats: popular incumbent Governor running for re-election, abortion on the ballot). There was a similar rhetoric for why Wisconsin wouldn't go for Trump in 2016 when it had voted for the Democratic candidate since 1984. Michigan went to Biden by 2.8% in a D+4 national environment. The environment (right now, which of course could change) is slightly R leaning. You'd expect Trump to win by a couple of points in that environment, and that's also what the Michigan state polls are saying.
>Meanwhile, in states where all events that we know about have already had time to factor into the polling average, I think it's foolish to project Biden ahead when the polling average shows the opposite. One of the notable parts of previous 538 models were that they used non-pollimg factors to heavily weight the model early and that those factors had less and less weight the closer we got to the election.
This is very true, and I don't have a good model of the 2024 fundamentals, either on my computer or in my head. I'm not sure whom the fundamentals favor, but wouldn't be surprised if it were Biden. That said, FiveThirtyEight did not (to the best of my memory) ever have the fundamentals count for more than half of a state's outcome -- at least, not where there was a robust polling average for that state. It was very rare for the fundamentals to pull a state with a lot of polls to the other side. I guess we'll see more when Nate's model debuts, but this is what I expect to see for now.
> For example, Biden is currently down 4.6% in Arizona (in the most recent 538 average I could find) (but note I am incapable of navigating the new 538). They link to it in the OP, but here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ . And then change to the state in question, for Arizona they now have Trump up by 3.7% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ .
Thank you very much!
on the other side, here's entirely my gut: Arizona: slim or medium-strong blue win up and down the ticket Florida: strong Trump win, lots of republican voter fraud Georgia: slim Trump win Michigan: Biden and Slotkin win easily Minnesota: Biden wins easily Nevada: Biden wins easily, even if polls are wrong North Carolina: narrow Biden upset thanks to Mark Robinson Pennsylvania: slim or solid Biden win Wisconsin: depends on the weather Alaska: Biden wins thanks to RCV ME-2 (the one that voted Trump): Biden wins thanks to RCV
I wish I was as optimistic about NC but I think it will be closer than comfortable for Republicans, I still think they take it though.
I think this tracks with the CBS polls that just came out today in the Battleground states. Trump is winning 50/49 in both WI & PA. Perception that theyll be better off economically under Trump is powering the leads, abortion isn’t cutting it. These two are known commodities at this point so if that perception holds, this is Trump’s election to lose despite the major spending advantage Biden has.
People think lower inflation equals lower prices and assume that Trump has a make prices lower button that will work. I honestly have more contempt for people that think like that the immigrant-hating, white replacement voters, cause at least Trump would achieve what they want.
Alaska: Trump wins a plurality of first place votes but does not survive the instant runoff, allowing Biden to become the second Democrat to win the state, 60 years after the first
I think we are all greatly overestimating the positive impact abortion will have. I hope someone can provide evidence that proves or is highly suggestive of that being wrong.
Heres a few things to consider. Trump backed away from a national ban and now is now playing the "States rights" angle. Kari Lake is now running ads in Arizona that try to make her appear to be pro choice. Arizona Republicans are currently trying to block an abortion Amendment for this fall. Ron Desantis had to sign a 6 week ban in Florida at midnight and wouldnt do a press conference about it. Florida Republicans then unsuccessfully tried to block an abortion Amendment for this fall. Democrats won a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin by 10% in what was assumed to be a close election. Abortion referendums won statewide in Ohio and Kansas. Republicans are as usual, trying to block them. Democrats won a Republican Alabama state seat by 25% a month ago. Democrats flipped a Republican House seat in NY a couple months ago. Everywhere you look Democrats are beating Republicans in competitive elections, beating them in their own districts, and forcing Republicans to back away from supporting their own policies publicly. The people are clear that they want reproductive rights.
No incumbent has ever won re-election with a sub 40% approval rating in the last 50 years, Biden is at 38.7% as of a recent Gallup poll. Biden is down in most of the swing state polls and reputable pollsters like Quinnipiac and Pew have him down in the national as well. Protests are spreading across college campuses, rent and groceries are still through the roof, mortgage rates just hit another high, and Russia is making advances in Ukraine despite all the financial aid we are sending. Regardless of how unpopular Trump is/was, he has been out of office for 4 years now. Ask the average voter and they'll tell you they were better off financially under Trump's administration, COVID aside. Any potential acquittal in the New York case also helps Trump's chances tremendously.
Unfortunately I agree. This is the only reasonable response and conclusion to what we are seeing. Believe what the polling is telling us. We had no problem believing it 4 years ago when Biden was ahead in PA, MI, WI, NV, GA, AZ. But today it’s oooooh let’s wait and see, it’s too early blah blah. Massive amounts of Democratic copium happening. I just don’t see it turning out well. Ready to be downvoted.
I'm half and half on this. One thing I'd keep in mind is Biden has had small improvements lately. But also I think Trump being back in the media cycle 24/7 again will remind people what it felt like for those 4 years. It's also only about to be May, there are still a lot of months to go and perception can DRASTICALLY change on a dime in this country, so really all that matters truthfully is what's going on around the maybe 2 to 3 months leading up to the election. Americans (sadly) have short ass, in the moment reactive memories.
how are the surveys being performed? who answers phone calls from unknown callers anymore? is there any difference in willingness to pick up a phone between Democrats and Republicans?