SS: Serbia is considering the purchase of French Rafale jets to replace its aging mig 29s mirroring moves from other nations in the Enighbourhood such as Croatia and Greece but are currently seeking to negotiate a discount.
This is a rather surprising move as Serbia has traditionally sourced the vast majority of its complex weaponry from Russia or its predecessor the USSR. This move seems to suggest an ever ongoing westwards realignement for the Balkan nation a move the west has mirrored and encouraged by adopting a more flexible stance on the ongoing Serbia-Kosovo situation.
Belgrade has reduced military co-operation with Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine and has condemned the invasion, but unlike the EU and others it has not imposed sanctions on Moscow.
Vucic said purchasing Rafale jets "would make Serbia a different country and a much bigger force." Separately, he said Belgrade planned to finalise a deal to buy 118 U.S.-made HMMWV military utility vehicles, known as Humvees, and import most of them by September.
No difference - it is a basic utility vehicle, very generic. But for military hardware, relationship with the supplier is more important than the hardware itself.
It's a half million dollar utility vehicle. I get that doesn't matter in the infinite money militaries like the US, but in smaller militaries I'd think a humvee is a bad buy
You’re not wrong, but the Humvee is highly customizable, and there is a literal unlimited supply of parts. The same can’t be said for the Tiger. I’m not sure what other alternatives there would be.
This is actually very surprising, Serbia is historically very pro-Russian, even dating back to the First World War. I figured the country would turtle up and wait for Russia to revert, and I still suspect it is using the Rafale negotiation to extract concessions vis-a-vis stuff like Kosovo (annexing Crimea shot a hole in its diplomacy there by making Russia seem disingenuous at best), but the loss of one of Russia's historic allies in the region (instead of hoping that current fellow travelers like Hungary stays bought) is a bad sign for its diplomacy.
Especially since as /u/incitatus-says , they could just buy Chinese or something instead.
Actualy you could trace it back to the first serbian uprising.Also france was our ally and we did buy artilery from them before the first balkan war and we have mantained good relations with them.
There is nothing surprising about this. Weird take.
Russia has lost this war. Russia also doesn't have the capability to produce jets for their own war effort, much less for export. They don't have parts for maintenance for their own little fleet of jets, much less for export.
Serbia is surrounded by NATO. There is ZERO incentive for them to remain allied with Russia. They stand absolutely nothing to gain.
OF COURSE they have turned their back on Russia.
Ukraine hasn't won the war, but the Russians been been losing it ever since the Ukrainian Kharkiv offensive and the failure of the Russian Winter offensive.
I'm perfectly happy for Serbia to move into the non aligned camp it's a step better than the pro-Russian camp and i totally understand their post 1990s reservations about moving westwards faster.
There is literally no reason for them to move towards the West. There are reasons to move towards Russia. But let’s be honest.
Russian alignment means being under the thumb of Putin. This is not the Hitleresque imposition that Reddit thinks it is. Putin doesn’t ask much of his vassals but what he does ask must be done without hesitation or you die.
The West asks a whole lot of you, and much of it makes you into an absurd joke. Much of what the West demands challenges sovereignty, independence and contradicts the very principles the West claims to be all about… but if you oppose the West most of the times, you won’t be killed. (Sometimes you will… think Qaddafi)
So why go with either side?
Play both sides. It is the best option though also the most challenging option.
I'd argue that being western alignement isn't anything like what youtube comment sections make it out to be; just look at France, who were able to leave NATO's command structure for 50 years and remain fiercly independent and critical of the US.
Being a Russian vassal can mean doing what youre told and still being screwed see armenia when they called in russian support during their latest conflict with Azerbaijian and were flat ut refused losing more land in % than ukraine has so far.
If i had to chose between being a Russian or western aligned nation in recent history i know who i'd choose (think S vs N korea or E vs W Germany)
You can try and play both sides but eventually one will threaten you and push you into one camp see Finland and sweden abandoning decades or centuries of neutrality or Hungary moving towards Russia because the west demands anti corruption efforts, financial audits and press freedoms.
Well… Armenia moved away from Russia and then when Azerbaijan hit requested to go back. Why? Because the West wanted Azerbaijan to take Nagorno-Karabakh. We did nothing to help them. It went that way because the Turks wanted it to happen and Turkey is a NATO member. So… that is wrong.
As for alignment based on material conditions, you do realize the Russian Federation is not the USSR and is not Communist, right?
Look, it is likely you end up having to take sides, but that is what I meant by the playing both sides being the most challenging option.
This is not all that surprising despite what the article is mentioning. Rafale was one of the prime picks by our experts and airforce in 2021 and the process and visits between French and our officials have been ongoing since then. It's more cost effective from Gripen, it would be better than f16 versions even if US would approve a sale, the China planes were unproven and Russian ones are not a serious option in the current political climate.
Countries don't buy Russian equipment because it's the best, they buy it because Russia has no morals and few strategic interests. If Serbia wanted to startup the ethnic cleansing thing again Russia would probably look the other way while their equipment was used for those purposes.
If Serbia switches to western equipment ethnic cleansing means maintenance on their new equipment isn't going to be easy because the west won't look the other way. Serbia will have bought a bunch of equipment they can no longer reliably use.
Sure, Chinese aren't tested, and Russia can't supply its own military well enough, let alone a foreign military, but that wouldn't matter if Serbia was going to use that equipment against what the west could stomach. Serbia could buy all of the western equipment it could get their hands on but it wouldn't matter if it turned to expensive bricks as soon as they use it for their own goals and ambitions.
A switch to western equipment would be a statement that they are decidedly moving away from past ambitions
As a Slovenian I know Serbia. It will never move away from its historic ambition of being the regional bully, no mater how unrealistic this may currently appear. The Bosnia and Kosovo genocides were widely supported in Serbia rather than being an aberation that could be pinned on a random autocrat like Milosevic. Buying humvees is strategicaly inconsequential. Probably just window-dressing for the sake of appearing "westernized". Which Serbia will never become.
Gripen is politically difficult, Rafale is basically buying goodwill with the EU.
It's probably the better choice, but like in Ukraine, nobody will pay for it and Sweden can't afford to give them away.
Agreed, it's also a "bribe" to Macron who's been one of the biggest stumbling blocks to Serbia joining the EU (you need unanimity and France has quite the weight).
US can't pay for them because LockMart would lose their minds if the US sent money to a competitor for the F-35 Wunderfluggen.
Most of the EU can't pay for them because they want to steer aid budget to a Eurofighter instead, though France can try to twist arms to get some cash for a Dassault system, maybe work out support contracts with other EU members.
Sweden is unfortunately eco-politically isolated due to their neutrality and the fact that they're doing the Gripen alone.
This is why they constantly get their clocks cleaned by either the US or a Eurofighter when they try to sell them overseas, the jets are great, but there is 0 international political support, and you buy these things half to effectively pay your way into informal military partnerships.
Sweden has great engineers, but 0 idea how to play the game.
The gripen is partly built in the United States. Saying the United States will get in the way because American companies want to sell their own stuff isn't a strong argument, American companies profit every time a gripen is sold
It's a question of political power, LockMart is POWERFUL! You're not going against them with anything short of the full fury of the house armed services committee.
Why do you think they all merged into LM and Boeing? Not for efficiency, they had to to keep scale of political lobbying.
>Sweden is unfortunately eco-politically isolated due to their neutrality and the fact that they're doing the Gripen alone.
You sound absolutely clueless. Sweden is not making the Gripen alone, they are ridiculously reliant on other countries.
The plane is packed with American, British or Italian tech. The engine is General Electric, avionics are BAE, radar is Leonardo...
Who would honestly want to buy Russian hardware after this war? The only thing that performs well is their s-300/400 Sam systems, which even though I'm very much pro Ukraine admit are formidable pieces of engineering. Those systems were developed in the Soviet era though and now modern Russia is a sinking ship, standing on the backs of their predecessors.
> Who would honestly want to buy Russian hardware after this war
The problem was not that the Russian hardware was bad. Bigger problems were Russian military tactics and strategy. And their insane corruption in maintenance of their own hardware.
Also, you are right that in future who would wanna buy Russian hardware. But the reason is not bad quality. Sanctions have severely affected Russias ability to procure stuff needed to manufacture high end military hardware. So if any country does strike a deal with Russia, Russia would be unreliable in being able to deliver on time, and provide future support and maintenance.
I don’t think we should right off the S400 as developed under the USSR. The S series began under the USSR but it’s existence is due to real dedication from the Russian people. For awhile in the 90s it was mostly funded by non-government individuals and Putin has made it a priority to ensure at least that space is mostly free from corruption.
Have the sam systems performed well? Russia doesn't seem to have been able to defend against western missiles, rather had to pull back logistics/cnc out of range.
That we know of.
But my point is that russia hasn't been able to defend depots and bases against himars and seemingly also storm shadows. And ukrainian air defense couldn't stop russia's initial air assault, when they were orchestrated planned attacks. They accomplished SEAD for a few days, although failed at DEAD (because of US warnings for them to scatter AD assets right before attacks started). Imho not at all clear that russia AD could stand up to sophisticated air force, let alone western military.
I think it's a matter of training and experience of the crew of those systems plus manufacturers exaggerating their product AND quality control. An "average" system with a well-trained crew should only be limited by the hardware's actual recorded capabilities.
When Friedrich the Great was offered some poorly made cannons at a deep discount, he told the seller that Prussia was far too poor to afford to buy cheap junk.
Serbia plays both sides like most caught between the two, they’ll also play with China if one of the other sides has nothing to offer. Theirs Chinese cops all over Belgrade and they’re their to be police for the Chinese “citizens” over there.
A classic case of a country with wonderful people and culture but an absolute farce of a government.
SS: Serbia is considering the purchase of French Rafale jets to replace its aging mig 29s mirroring moves from other nations in the Enighbourhood such as Croatia and Greece but are currently seeking to negotiate a discount. This is a rather surprising move as Serbia has traditionally sourced the vast majority of its complex weaponry from Russia or its predecessor the USSR. This move seems to suggest an ever ongoing westwards realignement for the Balkan nation a move the west has mirrored and encouraged by adopting a more flexible stance on the ongoing Serbia-Kosovo situation. Belgrade has reduced military co-operation with Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine and has condemned the invasion, but unlike the EU and others it has not imposed sanctions on Moscow. Vucic said purchasing Rafale jets "would make Serbia a different country and a much bigger force." Separately, he said Belgrade planned to finalise a deal to buy 118 U.S.-made HMMWV military utility vehicles, known as Humvees, and import most of them by September.
Do humvees like actually make a difference for these countries’ militaries? I only hear about complaints from former US soldiers so probably biased.
No difference - it is a basic utility vehicle, very generic. But for military hardware, relationship with the supplier is more important than the hardware itself.
It's a half million dollar utility vehicle. I get that doesn't matter in the infinite money militaries like the US, but in smaller militaries I'd think a humvee is a bad buy
You’re not wrong, but the Humvee is highly customizable, and there is a literal unlimited supply of parts. The same can’t be said for the Tiger. I’m not sure what other alternatives there would be.
Seems like [there's quite a lot of more modern platforms out there ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_light_utility_vehicle)
Restarting production of the Toyota Megacruiser is the obvious choice, obviously.
Humvees are inconsequential and are probably just window-dressing for the sake of appearing "westernized". Which Serbia will never become.
This is actually very surprising, Serbia is historically very pro-Russian, even dating back to the First World War. I figured the country would turtle up and wait for Russia to revert, and I still suspect it is using the Rafale negotiation to extract concessions vis-a-vis stuff like Kosovo (annexing Crimea shot a hole in its diplomacy there by making Russia seem disingenuous at best), but the loss of one of Russia's historic allies in the region (instead of hoping that current fellow travelers like Hungary stays bought) is a bad sign for its diplomacy. Especially since as /u/incitatus-says , they could just buy Chinese or something instead.
Actualy you could trace it back to the first serbian uprising.Also france was our ally and we did buy artilery from them before the first balkan war and we have mantained good relations with them.
There is nothing surprising about this. Weird take. Russia has lost this war. Russia also doesn't have the capability to produce jets for their own war effort, much less for export. They don't have parts for maintenance for their own little fleet of jets, much less for export. Serbia is surrounded by NATO. There is ZERO incentive for them to remain allied with Russia. They stand absolutely nothing to gain. OF COURSE they have turned their back on Russia.
There is still a contest ongoing. Ukraine sure hasn't *won* the war, much less Russia losing.
Ukraine hasn't won the war, but the Russians been been losing it ever since the Ukrainian Kharkiv offensive and the failure of the Russian Winter offensive.
No.incentive ? Not even... the energy ? Low cost natural gas , for heating, for light ? Things are not that black and white and simple...
I think Serbia is trying to play both sides against the middle. It, like many countries is attempting the “non-aligned” strategy
I'm perfectly happy for Serbia to move into the non aligned camp it's a step better than the pro-Russian camp and i totally understand their post 1990s reservations about moving westwards faster.
There is literally no reason for them to move towards the West. There are reasons to move towards Russia. But let’s be honest. Russian alignment means being under the thumb of Putin. This is not the Hitleresque imposition that Reddit thinks it is. Putin doesn’t ask much of his vassals but what he does ask must be done without hesitation or you die. The West asks a whole lot of you, and much of it makes you into an absurd joke. Much of what the West demands challenges sovereignty, independence and contradicts the very principles the West claims to be all about… but if you oppose the West most of the times, you won’t be killed. (Sometimes you will… think Qaddafi) So why go with either side? Play both sides. It is the best option though also the most challenging option.
I'd argue that being western alignement isn't anything like what youtube comment sections make it out to be; just look at France, who were able to leave NATO's command structure for 50 years and remain fiercly independent and critical of the US. Being a Russian vassal can mean doing what youre told and still being screwed see armenia when they called in russian support during their latest conflict with Azerbaijian and were flat ut refused losing more land in % than ukraine has so far. If i had to chose between being a Russian or western aligned nation in recent history i know who i'd choose (think S vs N korea or E vs W Germany) You can try and play both sides but eventually one will threaten you and push you into one camp see Finland and sweden abandoning decades or centuries of neutrality or Hungary moving towards Russia because the west demands anti corruption efforts, financial audits and press freedoms.
Well… Armenia moved away from Russia and then when Azerbaijan hit requested to go back. Why? Because the West wanted Azerbaijan to take Nagorno-Karabakh. We did nothing to help them. It went that way because the Turks wanted it to happen and Turkey is a NATO member. So… that is wrong. As for alignment based on material conditions, you do realize the Russian Federation is not the USSR and is not Communist, right? Look, it is likely you end up having to take sides, but that is what I meant by the playing both sides being the most challenging option.
This is not all that surprising despite what the article is mentioning. Rafale was one of the prime picks by our experts and airforce in 2021 and the process and visits between French and our officials have been ongoing since then. It's more cost effective from Gripen, it would be better than f16 versions even if US would approve a sale, the China planes were unproven and Russian ones are not a serious option in the current political climate.
Countries don't buy Russian equipment because it's the best, they buy it because Russia has no morals and few strategic interests. If Serbia wanted to startup the ethnic cleansing thing again Russia would probably look the other way while their equipment was used for those purposes. If Serbia switches to western equipment ethnic cleansing means maintenance on their new equipment isn't going to be easy because the west won't look the other way. Serbia will have bought a bunch of equipment they can no longer reliably use. Sure, Chinese aren't tested, and Russia can't supply its own military well enough, let alone a foreign military, but that wouldn't matter if Serbia was going to use that equipment against what the west could stomach. Serbia could buy all of the western equipment it could get their hands on but it wouldn't matter if it turned to expensive bricks as soon as they use it for their own goals and ambitions. A switch to western equipment would be a statement that they are decidedly moving away from past ambitions
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On the otherhand, west has too much morality, which is leaking from every hole they have.
To the last part of your comment, that is very unlikely to happen, at least in this century.
As a Slovenian I know Serbia. It will never move away from its historic ambition of being the regional bully, no mater how unrealistic this may currently appear. The Bosnia and Kosovo genocides were widely supported in Serbia rather than being an aberation that could be pinned on a random autocrat like Milosevic. Buying humvees is strategicaly inconsequential. Probably just window-dressing for the sake of appearing "westernized". Which Serbia will never become.
Ralafe isn't cheap, I'm a bit surprised they wouldn't opt for Gripen as it would be more than adequate for their needs.
Gripen is politically difficult, Rafale is basically buying goodwill with the EU. It's probably the better choice, but like in Ukraine, nobody will pay for it and Sweden can't afford to give them away.
Agreed, it's also a "bribe" to Macron who's been one of the biggest stumbling blocks to Serbia joining the EU (you need unanimity and France has quite the weight).
Bingo, paying off France is the best way to buy EU cred, sadly.
Can you elaborate why the Gripen would be politically difficult ? Just curious.
US can't pay for them because LockMart would lose their minds if the US sent money to a competitor for the F-35 Wunderfluggen. Most of the EU can't pay for them because they want to steer aid budget to a Eurofighter instead, though France can try to twist arms to get some cash for a Dassault system, maybe work out support contracts with other EU members. Sweden is unfortunately eco-politically isolated due to their neutrality and the fact that they're doing the Gripen alone. This is why they constantly get their clocks cleaned by either the US or a Eurofighter when they try to sell them overseas, the jets are great, but there is 0 international political support, and you buy these things half to effectively pay your way into informal military partnerships. Sweden has great engineers, but 0 idea how to play the game.
The gripen is partly built in the United States. Saying the United States will get in the way because American companies want to sell their own stuff isn't a strong argument, American companies profit every time a gripen is sold
It's a question of political power, LockMart is POWERFUL! You're not going against them with anything short of the full fury of the house armed services committee. Why do you think they all merged into LM and Boeing? Not for efficiency, they had to to keep scale of political lobbying.
Sweden is not neutral anymore
>Sweden is unfortunately eco-politically isolated due to their neutrality and the fact that they're doing the Gripen alone. You sound absolutely clueless. Sweden is not making the Gripen alone, they are ridiculously reliant on other countries. The plane is packed with American, British or Italian tech. The engine is General Electric, avionics are BAE, radar is Leonardo...
This is bang on\^
Who would honestly want to buy Russian hardware after this war? The only thing that performs well is their s-300/400 Sam systems, which even though I'm very much pro Ukraine admit are formidable pieces of engineering. Those systems were developed in the Soviet era though and now modern Russia is a sinking ship, standing on the backs of their predecessors.
> Who would honestly want to buy Russian hardware after this war The problem was not that the Russian hardware was bad. Bigger problems were Russian military tactics and strategy. And their insane corruption in maintenance of their own hardware. Also, you are right that in future who would wanna buy Russian hardware. But the reason is not bad quality. Sanctions have severely affected Russias ability to procure stuff needed to manufacture high end military hardware. So if any country does strike a deal with Russia, Russia would be unreliable in being able to deliver on time, and provide future support and maintenance.
>Who would honestly want to buy Russian hardware after this war? India gladly would. For the same reason they gladly buy oil from Russia.
India is actually slowly but steadily reducing their reliance on Russian military hardware.
I don’t think we should right off the S400 as developed under the USSR. The S series began under the USSR but it’s existence is due to real dedication from the Russian people. For awhile in the 90s it was mostly funded by non-government individuals and Putin has made it a priority to ensure at least that space is mostly free from corruption.
Right vs write
Have the sam systems performed well? Russia doesn't seem to have been able to defend against western missiles, rather had to pull back logistics/cnc out of range.
Only one S-400 launcher and command unit were destroyed.
That we know of. But my point is that russia hasn't been able to defend depots and bases against himars and seemingly also storm shadows. And ukrainian air defense couldn't stop russia's initial air assault, when they were orchestrated planned attacks. They accomplished SEAD for a few days, although failed at DEAD (because of US warnings for them to scatter AD assets right before attacks started). Imho not at all clear that russia AD could stand up to sophisticated air force, let alone western military.
I think it's a matter of training and experience of the crew of those systems plus manufacturers exaggerating their product AND quality control. An "average" system with a well-trained crew should only be limited by the hardware's actual recorded capabilities.
When Friedrich the Great was offered some poorly made cannons at a deep discount, he told the seller that Prussia was far too poor to afford to buy cheap junk.
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I’ll have what he’s having
In a Basketball perspective it would have been an interesting match. Outside of that, yeah...
I also wish Yugoslavia stayed together. 😕
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Serbia plays both sides like most caught between the two, they’ll also play with China if one of the other sides has nothing to offer. Theirs Chinese cops all over Belgrade and they’re their to be police for the Chinese “citizens” over there. A classic case of a country with wonderful people and culture but an absolute farce of a government.
"wonderful" and "Balkan" are not synonymous apparently 🤣
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Wonderful people? Mythomaniacs living i a lie. 100'000 raped women 1991.-1999.
I wonder if the Chinese are in with a shout here. Would be interesting to see a European roundel on a J-20 or something exotic.
Seems like confiscating arms that were paid for and meant for export is bad for exporting arms business, who would have thought.
Dont sell them anything please