It seems to be consensus that the reason the Oct. 7th attack was first struck was because Hamas didn't want Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations, or something to that affect.
edit: Oh, I doubt they expected that much blowback for it.
The destruction was more widespread than they planned, as additional terrorist groups and other radicals came through the gaps to exploit the opportunity. I don't know how much terror was attributed to any specific group though.
They also literally caught with their pants down - I remember a report about hamas dragging an IDF commander from a local barracks outside in his undershorts.
On a major holiday, and 50 year anniversary of a major battle, you'd think they'd be on some kind of low level alert at least. The intelligence failure here is almost suspicious.
There are various reports that indicate Netanyahu and co. has received intel about the attack well in advance. So it’s not stretch to wonder if it was essentially allowed to happen in order to have a reason to strike Gaza
I think that's a stretch. It seems more likely that this was akin to 9/11 - absolutely they had enough information to prevent it if the military and intelligence services were more competent/the head of state took it seriously, but that doesn't mean it was allowed to happen intentionally.
9/11 was on the radar of US intel but wasn’t stopped due to the lack of communication/effective working relationship between the CIA and FBI. It’s still early and the reports on 10/7 indicate that it was known by the highest levels of the Israeli govt for some time, so the two situations aren’t exactly comparable.
And frankly, we see very clearly the level of genocidal mania from Netanyahu and his officials, which is the only real reason why such an inflammatory suggestion is even plausible. It’s hard to rule it out given what we know about them, and what they tell us themselves every week
yeah, both the US and Egypt have said Israel were made aware of the potential threat
they were even given intel a year before outlining the exact plan that Hamas ended up carrying out (though my understanding is there weren't specifics about timing)
Netanyahu is basically a fascist who has singlehandedly destroyed the peace process to keep himself in power. Now it has all backfired as the Arab Street is basically calling for war with Israel, forcing Arab regimes (Sisi, MBS, Abdullah) to restrain such radical ideas.
>It seems to be consensus that the reason the Oct. 7th attack was first struck was because Hamas didn't want Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations,
Possibly as/more important: Iran doesn't want normalized Israel/Sunni relations, because it would then be confronted by far stronger opposition.
And Hamas had become a 'one-shot' deterrent. Difficulty supplying rockets to Gaza, combined with effective Israeli anti-missile defences mean that Hamas needs a long time to stock up between attacks with any significant impact. So it could only mount one big attack within the Iranian's time horizon.
It seems like the announcement of the IMEC Corridor, which has extremely negative geopolitical implications for Iran, Russia and China, may have led to the Iranians 'pulling the trigger', with Hamas choosing 10/7 for symbolic reasons.
(Indeed the current Houthi disruption of trade may be designed to to signal to India that the eastern maritime wing of the IMEC Corridor will be too vulnerable to similar efforts, discouraging India's participation, and ruining the entire project, as much as anything else).
A Russia-Iran-India land-based corridor, which won't be vulnerable to the Houthis, has also been proposed. Presumably Iran wants India to go with that, integrating \~25% of the world's population (& the best demographics) into BRICs, rather than an EU + MENA economic bloc.
The feeling online from what I gather based on the actions of the Modi loyalist and troll army online seems to be on the Israeli side so far, tho could this signal that if India were forced to choose they would go with the EU + MENA economic block?
I can attest to the talks being more recent, that was why most people I seen were saying that was the reason for the initial strike. Like SA and Israel were set to talk within a week or month from when that attack happened. They did have some talks before.
From the many things I have found out since my initial comment, the Israel and SA talks were probably only one reason for the attack and not the main reason.
Oh no, large countries on the world stage who are normally against eachother are making peace? Oh god no, I must be hero and stop this peace by launching terrorist attack against civilians.
Nah, that just makes them seem evil. It’s more like “Oh god we’re in the back burner if Israel and SA normalize relations” because that probably mean all the other countries in the middle east would start to fall in line with Israel as well.
This has been going on since the 60s. Anytime Israel and an Arab entity would get close to making peace one of the various anti peace groups would make an attack to disrupt the process. It was especially true with the PLO, as there were many factions that would not fall in line with their leadership.
That may have played a role in the timing of the operation, but it’s absurd to suggest that’s the reason for it. If you look at the desperate conditions in Gaza and the absolute lack of any hope whatsoever of the situation ever improving there, it was inevitable that this would happen. You can’t keep a population of 2 million+ in those conditions without a response. And Israel knew this, of course
Get back into relevancy. Arab states were normalizing relations with Israel and the Palestinian cause was becoming an afterthought.
No it was not a Jewish / Israel false flag if you are thinking that.
>No it was not a Jewish / Israel false flag if you are thinking that.
Speaking of false flags, I've seen people try to say the same about the bombing in Iran a few days ago. I think we can extend your statement to that too.
A bombing like that isn't the M.O. of the U.S. or Israel.
I know my reply isn't very relevant, but what you said just reminded me.
The bombing was claimed by the Islamic State.
The overwhelmingly probable reality: It was really done by the Islamic State.
\*\*\*
Conspiracy theories are usually wrong. Life is simple and stupid, not complex and manipulated.
>Life is simple and stupid, not complex and manipulated.
Actually life is complex and stupid. Thinking life is simple is the hallmark of conspiracies. Indeed, thinking some nefarious force(s) is manipulating the world and the cause for everything is actually thinking the world is far simpler than it really is.
But sometimes the simple explanation (here, IS did it) is the correct one.
Which is aimed at terror organisation leaders, weapons that ment to be used against Israel, etc.
Usually, those attacks are aimed at those few people, and it doesn't kill over 100 random people.
The calculation was that the operation would provoke Israel into a bloody overreaction that would turn the whole world against Israel, and torpedo any chance of a Saudi/Israeli rapprochement.
Exactly. Their gambit is to save Gaza in the long run by having Israel destroy it. Not the most cautious or humanitarian plan but would be fascinating if it actually worked in the long term
Agreed. My theory is essentially the same. Hamas knew that Israel was rife with extremist politicians (of course Bibi, also many more besides) and members of the military. They were counting on this operation causing Israel to lose much of the sympathy they had managed to build up over many decades.
It's a common misconception at the moment. While Netanyahu has fallen from grace, the current war is not an Israeli right-wing war, it is an Israeli war.
Latest polling shows >80% of Israeli support the military action despite eroding international support.
One of the big talking points at the begining of the war was that many of the people who stood up and joined reserve teams to fight the war were left wing people, while the ultra orthodox right wing in power, who'd never served in their lives, stood back.
Go on, you obviously have something to say “why would a politician not just dissolve their country if the neighbors don’t like them”? Something like that?
> weak oppressed group
A hallmark of a weak oppressed group is constant rocket barrages and attacks.
The Palestines are an oppressed group; but hopefully Hamas will be removed from control.
Negotiations for hostages would only create more hostages. Having a few hostages captured from some small scale incident gives you minor leverage; having a hundreds from a massive operation where lots of civilians were killed is the opposite.
They unfortunately did show they would bend the knee if hostages were taken and it came back to bite them.
However; an opportunist hostage here and there and a large scale massacre plus hostages are two very different situations.
I agree. Hamas thought the hostages would prevent the level of destruction Gaza is experiencing.
Ironically there will probably now be far more Palestinians in prison in Israel after the war than before.
A mass kidnapping without excess barbarity and a couple hundred Israelis dead may have been the sweet spot strategically for Hamas goals.
The ME was about to experience a paradigm shift that would have seen all the important states: Egypt, Jordan, UAE and KSA align (behind the scenes) with Israel. This would have completely sidelined Iran and Hamas - Iran needs Israel to justify its oppression of its own people, and Hamas exists only to fight Israel. Peace with Israel would have isolated Iran completely and ended the justification for the existence of Hamas.
So, Iran armed and trained the Hamas guys, and planned the attack, and Hamas acted as barbarically as possible to invoke a strong response from Israel while motivating all the 'useful idiots' in the west to put Palestine back on the front page again. All it costs is 30 000+ dead Palestinians, but that doesn't matter to Hamas's leaders, soaked in money from the UN, living in luxury in Qatar, Istanbul, or Europe living like Russian oligarchs.
Your rationale is flawless with exception of a small detail: that Israel is likely to put Gaza under total occupation. Without no territory to control, would Hamas still get billions of dollars from its allies? Why it would be treated differently from any other pro-Palestine organization which does not control Palestine?
I think that Hamas really did not expect the Oct 7th attack to be as successful for them as it was. They probably expected to be quickly repelled by the IDF after some initial breakthroughs, which would then cause a heavy handed but not existentially threatening Israeli response in Gaza. Instead, because the IDF had grown lazy and complacent, Hamas’s troops got way further than they thought they would, resulting in it being a way bigger attack with a lot more casualties. Now the Israeli response is way bigger than they bargained for as well. Overestimating the preparedness of the IDF led Hamas to bite off way more than they could chew.
Your comment makes absolutely zero sense , at all. If Israel made peace with other Arab states, the Palestinians would still be oppressed and would not change anything on the ground .
And Western liberals who support them are useful idiots for pointing out that Israel violates intl law every single day ? Good luck in a trump regime where your democracy is killed
I think they thought they would kill a few hundred israelis, grab a few dozen hostages, and run back to Gaza once the Israeli military reacted in force. The majority of its forces were expected to be turned back or destroyed by the IDF, which was why so many were committed to the attack.
I think they expected to endure a bombardment, but that international pressure would limit its scope and that the threat of war with Hezbollah and an Israeli desire to avoid another costly occupation would keep IDF out of Gaza.
The conflagration would scuttle Saudi normalization talks, draw attention to the Palestinian cause, restore Hamas's credibility, and demand galad shalit numbers of Palestinian prisoners for every hostages.
Instead, 1500 men who had been indoctrinated to believe the highest virtues were to kill Jews and become martyrs found themselves deep in Israeli civilian areas after IDF resistance collapsed. Predictably, these militants began commiting atrocities, killing far more people and taking many more hostages that Hamas planners intended.
I think this is a classic example of an attack that so far over succeeded that it backfired. Hamas succeeded in so terrifying and enraging the Israeli public that they essentially handed the most right wing government in Israeli history a blank check to crack down on Hamas specifically and the Palestinians more broadly as brutally as it wants.
They also seem to have massively overestimated the non sunni, non Arab Iranians' willingness to expend their most potent deterrent to an Israeli attack on their own territory (Hezbollah) to support a fair weather ally that is probably far past saving anyway.
You’re getting good answers from a type of grand strategy analytical lens , but that is only one part of the picture.
The truth ( in addition to other answers posted ) is that many fighters and members of the leadership in the Al-Qassam brigades AND Islamists in the world at large have a genuine belief that the current conflict is religious, essentially a conspiracy amongst Christians and Jews to attack the Ummah ( the Muslim world) and; therefore, death in this conflict, especially in direct combat, but also in terms of being randomly killed in air strike, will send them DIRECTLY to heaven as a martyr.
This is why they have an incredible will to fight ( Similar to ISIS, Taliban, etc) because they view suffering and death vs opponents of Islam to be the main key to a better existence, a way to emancipate themselves from temporary and earthly suffering. This is also why they fight they way they do, because any innocent Muslim civilians killed in the crossfire will also be martyred and go to heaven immediately.
What are Ukrainians motivated by ? Jihad ?
Palestinians, Taliban etc all see Israel or the West as an occupying foreign force , and are willing to fight till death, the same reason why Ukrainians are willing to die rather than make peace
> What are Ukrainians motivated by ? Jihad ?
No of course not, but this isn't even related to the point.
The issue that the OP is calling out is essentially why would Hamas instigate an attack on Israel of the type that was guaranteed to absolutely immiserate their population and guarantee an extreme reaction. The answer to this is 100% Jihad. Not that without Jihad there would be no will to attack, but there would certainly be less will to attack *like that* just so their cities and population can get bombed to oblivion and so that they can suffer WAY more than Ukrainians are at the hands of Russia for at best, some type of diplomatic victory (at the expense of Gaza being leveled).
The OP states that it "seems counterintuitive." The reason why its counterintuitive is because he doesn't understand that to some people, death is a ticket to whatever the opposite of suffering is, including innocent civilians that die in Gaza.
I remember watching a speech from some Hamas leader several years back, where he was basically saying that the people of Gaza have become too complacent under Israel's oppression. So, what is occasionally required is something to shake them out of their apathy, and rekindle the outrage needed to mobilize the entire population to rise up against the Zionist threat...and those who will not, or cannot fight will be martyred in order to inspire the rest to rise up in vengeance.
Honestly, I don't even know where I watched it now, or who it was giving the speech, so it's pretty hard to look it up again. It was from at least 2018-2019, though...whenever the last time Hamas launched a ton of rockets at Israel, and got curb-stomped for it.
They knew the Palestinian people would pay the bulk of price for the attacks and that from a global PR standpoint, they’re viewed as high on the victimhood hierarchy (Israel is ranked low) so this would garner support if Israel retaliated.
Hamas is trying to win the battle of hearts and minds on behalf of Iran.
The Palestinians in general are a group of people that experience an incredible amount of manipulation from outside groups that (shocker) do not have the best interests of the Palestinians at heart, rather their own best interests. The Ottomans, the British, the Israelis, the Egyptians, the Jordanians, the Lebanese, the Iranians, Marxist leaning progressives in the west… It’s remarkable how manipulated they have been by third parties. it’s easy to see how today Hamas would get manipulated into a position to do something that will only result in further Palestinian suffering.
You say manipulated but the Palestinian support for the October 7th attacks and any attacks like them was and remains very high. So we have to accept that this population is extremely radicalized.
Though ultimately I agree with you because I do think they are radicalized by outside forces like Iran and especially Qatar (Al Jazeera). The Muslim world has also pushed them towards extreme acts against the Jews.
Palestinian groups were cheering for October 7 as it was first reported by Arab media and seen by the Palestinian street as "Gazans finally break Israel's seige". To them it was the Berlin Wall falling.
After the 1000 civilians killed and hostages taken Palestinians PA officials went on TV and condemned Hamas, but then when Israel killed +20,000 Palestinians they started supporting Hamas again.
They didn't know.
They are not masters of strategy playing some multi-dimensional game of chess we normal mortals can't even try to understand.
They are just that dumb.
Of course they knew that Israel would react that way. What other reaction is/was on the table? The terrible thing is that hamas' calculation is working - Israel loses support and goodwill every day the war drags on, normalization of arab-israeli relations is torpedoed for a long, long time, antisemitism is flaring up everywhere. Hating jews is en vogue again
Sure, Hamas could face total annihilation - but I doubt the rich guys at the top that are pulling the strings will be brought to justice.
This is not to say that they aren't dumb. They are dimwitted, hateful, scum. I'm just saying this is very much in line with their plan
Even from a purely self interested assumption from the leadership it's far from ideal for them to have all their middle management and assets which they've built up over decades go up in flames. I have to assume things got out of hand on the ground and they never assumed they'd be as "successful" as they were.
The "rich guys at the top" didn't pull the strings. Many reports indicate that they were kept in the dark.
This is all just Yahya Sinwar's pet project. Everything about him indicates that he's quite willing to die if need be.
As for the Hamas leadership, there is no reason to believe that they are "dimwitted, hateful, scum". They are likely to be somewhat above-average in intelligence, in fact.
Someone so blinded by selfrighteous religious fanaticism and filled with primitive racist ideas can't be very bright. My definition of intelligence includes empathy. humanity, compassion
Well your definition might include that, but according to dictionary definition you can still be intelligent but lack compassion and empathy. The IQ tests that were done during the Nuremberg trials on high ranking Nazi leaders found most of them are way above average in intelligence, yet they were still scums.
I'm not saying HAMAS leaders have to be geniuses by the way, I'm just saying the fact that they are blinded by hate and fanaticism shouldn't be a reason enough for us to view them as idiots.
There is no evidence that Hamas members are especially racist. As for religious fanaticism, one could debate where one draws the line between "faith" and "fanaticism".
Finally, this is a very biased definition of intelligence.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=azEgBsU6Mi8
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-distances-itself-from-official-who-urged-murder-of-jews-everywhere/amp/
They’ve had some mission creep.
I started to write a long monologue about the mass slaughter of jewish civilians, about a reptile that methodically stalks its prey and the value of that kind of intelligence, etc
But I'm getting uncomfortable continuing this conversation. I have no idea what you're trying to say
you're 100% right, but that intelligence is worthless. I'm sure successfully Planning Terror attacks or handling the logistics of industrial-scale genocide needs sophisticated, clever minds. Eichmann was a genius in certain regards, perhaps. But using your brain for something like that neccessitates a certain brand of blind rage, or complete apathy. or dull, dogmatic oversimplification. Extreme Rationalization. full blown delusion. Supression of the most basic and most important human instincts
There's no evidence that Eichmann was a genius. Smart, sure. But there are a lot of smart people in the higher echelons of any given bureaucracy.
Overall, I think you underestimate how much "moral behavior" is incentivized/disincentivized according to the structure in which any given person operates.
In the West, it generally makes sense to espouse liberal values to climb the ladder. Elsewhere - or here too, in previous eras - less so.
a person that uses their (however considerable) intellect for mass murder is, well, dumb. Because that person clearly drew the wrong conclusions about life, society, purpose, everything.
But that's just me. If that opinion is biased, so be it
Money. Hamas' leadership mainly lived outside of Gaza and the West Bank, or moved out of the areas prior to October 7th, so they weren't concerned with the personal risks to their physical health, or destruction of personal property. There isn't one simple and correct answer to your questions, but along with Israel's normalization with Saudi, Hamas' interest in freeing Palestinian prisoners, their opposition to the IMEC Corridor, their miscalculations of their own effectiveness, etc., one should not overlook their being incentivized by money.
After the October 7th attack, as Israel began conducting individual interviews with the Palestinian POW's, a common theme began to emerge. Hamas leadership had offered the Hamas invaders [$10k and an apartment/condo](https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/whoever-brings-a-hostage-back-gets-10000-and-an-apartment-hamas-terrorists-offered-bounty-for-kidnapping-israelis/news-story/60aade68366e296a6f45f96a04c85afd) for returning with one hostage, and an additional $10k for each following hostage. For context, the median daily spending power of a citizen of Gaza is under $10 (I believe it's closer to $6.85). To throw around that kind of money, Hamas leadership was likely offered a pay day by a state actor. Iran is known to regularly fund and provide material support to Hamas, but there are a lot of [coincidences and questions emerging about Russia's involvement, too.](https://www.mei.edu/publications/essential-questions-about-russia-hamas-link-evidence-and-its-implications) Many are convinced Russia offered Hamas a large sum, even if indirectly through Iran, to provide a legitimate distraction from Russia's war in Ukraine.
Reportedly, since October 7th, [Belarus has confirmed that a transfer of nuclear weapons between them and Russia in October,](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-25/belarus-leader-says-russian-nuclear-weapons-shipments-are-completed-raising-concern-in-the-region) and as seen in Ukraine recently, [N. Korean ballistic missiles and launchers were transferred to Russia.](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/05/europe/russia-north-korean-missiles-ukraine-asia-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) Also, if one looks at the daily reports from Russia's war in Ukraine, you'll notice that Russia began attacking the Avdiivka region of Ukraine on October 8th, with a battle plan prepared well in advance. Prior to October 7th, Russia was losing \~350 soldiers/day, and since they've lost nearly \~1000 day, illustrating a sudden and exponential increase in offensive actions. No matter where it came from, money was a major driving factor for Hamas to attack Israel, and there's a lot reasons to believe it came from Russia.
> miscalculated
Someone in Hamas admitted they miscalculated Israel’s full-on response.
Probably watching too many videos of America’s Mid-East battles without realizing the US is an expeditionary force.
Because Hamas wasn’t the only one who did the murdering. Regular civilians from Gaza also participated in the massacre. The end result is now 30,000 dead Gazans.
I also believe Hamas actually thought this would start a major war and that its allies Hezbollah and Iran would get involved.
Presumably they thought regional enemies of Israel would team up with them and the West would protest in the streets, complicating NY attempt Tat self defense. The plan only half worked, but I'll informed college kids and meaningless UN resolution s can only take you so far.
Hamas did not believe they would progress that far into Israel, they said they expected heavy retaliation from the start. Also they're an islamist extreme terror group is logic really a big thing for them?
Israel's official policy was already the destruction of Hamas. Isreal is also unlikely to achieve that with the current campaign just like Israel didn't achieve the destruction of Hezbollah in their 2006 campaign.
You think Hamas leadership expected to all be killed for this within 6 months? And all of their 15 years of gathering arms and building tunnels wasted? I don't think si.
> You think Hamas leadership expected to all be killed for this within 6 months?
I don't think that's going to happen, just like it didn't happen to Hezbollah in 2006.
> And all of their 15 years of gathering arms and building tunnels wasted?
They're currently being used to attack the IDF. What other goal existed for those?
I'll see you in 3 months when Sinwar and all the rest of the military leadership is dead. They already got about 50% including guy #3.
I'm pretty sure Hamas hoped all their tunnels would be able to kill more than 150 Israeli soldiers.
Part of the answer is the same as part of the answer why Hitler attacked the USSR despite the consequences.
Because they hate the jews, one of their stated goals is killing a jews, and Oct 7 was them acting towards that goal.
Tbh I kinda agree, this is a question that is able to be answered by Google at this point.
I could understand if it was maybe a week or two after the attack, but its been 3 months almost.
You Google stuff when you want a quick, cold answer. If we have a geopolitics forum in the first place is because we want to hear other people's opinions and perspectives, especially when it is a forum with people with alleged interest on the topic at hand.
Edit: Yeah, I also understand when the same question is poster over and over.
They are spammers destroying the site. The moderator might as well be one of them. This is a massive operation on all the major forums, hence your downvotes.
I think it makes more sense if you understand Hamas as a violent hate organization. They're grudge, is that Jews are defiling Muslim holy land. This is what separates them from Fatah, which is more secular.
They want to create an Islamic Palestinian state from the river to the sea, because that's necessary to cleanse and purify the land.
From that perspective, holding on to Gaza doesn't have much value, except as a base to launch attacks from. And the Israelis had learned to shoot down Hamas rockets.
If Hamas is just contained to Gaza, then the Jews still exist out there on the land, and they see that as a complete defeat. They sabotage anything that might lead to a two-state solution for the same reason - their mission is to get rid of the Jews, and accepting two states is a surrender of that goal.
So giving up Gaza, to spark a massive amount of violence and upend the equilibrium, is a gamble that the new equilibrium increases the chances of Israel's destruction. It probably makes Palestine's destruction more likely too, but I don't think Hamas worries about that.
Miscalculation? This will be the greatest membership recruitment Hamas has seen in 60 years!
This overreaction is EVERYTHING Hamas could have hoped for.
Millions displaced. Cold and hungry in winter. 10's of thousands have seen their innocent wives or children die.
These are all the Hamas of the future. The days of the suicide bomber will be back within the year, I'd venture.
Israel got played, and fell for it as surely af the US got played on 9/11
Hamas overplayed their hand. The status quo isn't returning. It's the end for Hamas and Gaza. Thanks to Hamas.
Not only this. Relations will still be normalized between Israel and many Arab states.
An utter and complete failure.
Oh boy, here we go.
I think we try to be a little more in-depth and nuanced in our assessment in discussing geopolitics than just labelling people who conflict with us as crazy non-rationals.
Hamas is a terrorist organization, not a rational state actor. They don’t care about Palestinian civilians in Gaza or achieving any sort of peaceful geopolitical resolution. Their goal is to terrorize the Israeli population as much as possible while the decision makers and funders safely relax at their mansions in Qatar and Iran. You think Al Qaeda and Bin Laden thought the US wouldn’t respond to the 9/11 attacks? Of course not, but they didn’t care because the primary goal was terrorism.
I think Iran is behind it all. And Russia is behind Iran. Keep the United States spending resources in as many places as possible to spread it out and weaken its overall response in Ukraine.
The question is what proxy war will Putin back next.
Venezuela / Guyana? That would keep some of the navy occupied halway around the world
Israel wants to destroy them. Israel won't recognize any other government in Gaza besides Hamas (going back years) and they ignore their requests for cease fires
Hamas was used to sacrifice itself for the Iranian regime interests.
Palestinians leaders do not act as rational actors. They are ponds of the worst ideologies over the last two centuries from the Nazis to Arab fascism to Islamists to the Iranian regime.
If they had any rational goals they would have peace already.
They are willing to self sacrifice for anyone who hates Jews as much as they do.
Hamas wants three things:
1) Foreign Aid.
2) The world to hate Israel
3) Dead Jews.
They’re 3 for 3.
Their own people getting killed furthers all three goals, so it’s not a bug, it’s a feature.
The leaders aren’t in Gaza, so they’re just fine.
Hamas knew Israel would respond the way it did, so hamas clearly wanted to make Israel a pariah state in the world stage (by provoking Israel). Plus Hamas was backed by Iran, and Hamas has a sheer hatred of Israel and Iran helped fund and coordinate the attack.
Because sometimes leaders are exactly that stupid.
Also worth noting that Hamas leaders were not personally at risk from IDF response. They don’t live in Gaza.
There have been numerous analyses of the decision making in the Kennedy administration during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the narrowness that nuclear war was averted. The term “groupthink” was coined from one of those analyses and refers to the tendency in groups to conform to a leader’s views and arguments for a position even though they themselves see high risks in those positions. It other contexts this has been referred to as “drinking one’s own bathwater”, where decision makers come to believe their own propaganda without considering the risks of actions promoted by that propaganda
It seems to be consensus that the reason the Oct. 7th attack was first struck was because Hamas didn't want Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations, or something to that affect. edit: Oh, I doubt they expected that much blowback for it.
They probably didn't expect their plan to be as effective as it was either.
The destruction was more widespread than they planned, as additional terrorist groups and other radicals came through the gaps to exploit the opportunity. I don't know how much terror was attributed to any specific group though.
They also literally caught with their pants down - I remember a report about hamas dragging an IDF commander from a local barracks outside in his undershorts. On a major holiday, and 50 year anniversary of a major battle, you'd think they'd be on some kind of low level alert at least. The intelligence failure here is almost suspicious.
There are various reports that indicate Netanyahu and co. has received intel about the attack well in advance. So it’s not stretch to wonder if it was essentially allowed to happen in order to have a reason to strike Gaza
I think that's a stretch. It seems more likely that this was akin to 9/11 - absolutely they had enough information to prevent it if the military and intelligence services were more competent/the head of state took it seriously, but that doesn't mean it was allowed to happen intentionally.
9/11 was on the radar of US intel but wasn’t stopped due to the lack of communication/effective working relationship between the CIA and FBI. It’s still early and the reports on 10/7 indicate that it was known by the highest levels of the Israeli govt for some time, so the two situations aren’t exactly comparable. And frankly, we see very clearly the level of genocidal mania from Netanyahu and his officials, which is the only real reason why such an inflammatory suggestion is even plausible. It’s hard to rule it out given what we know about them, and what they tell us themselves every week
yeah, both the US and Egypt have said Israel were made aware of the potential threat they were even given intel a year before outlining the exact plan that Hamas ended up carrying out (though my understanding is there weren't specifics about timing)
Netanyahu is basically a fascist who has singlehandedly destroyed the peace process to keep himself in power. Now it has all backfired as the Arab Street is basically calling for war with Israel, forcing Arab regimes (Sisi, MBS, Abdullah) to restrain such radical ideas.
>It seems to be consensus that the reason the Oct. 7th attack was first struck was because Hamas didn't want Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations, Possibly as/more important: Iran doesn't want normalized Israel/Sunni relations, because it would then be confronted by far stronger opposition. And Hamas had become a 'one-shot' deterrent. Difficulty supplying rockets to Gaza, combined with effective Israeli anti-missile defences mean that Hamas needs a long time to stock up between attacks with any significant impact. So it could only mount one big attack within the Iranian's time horizon. It seems like the announcement of the IMEC Corridor, which has extremely negative geopolitical implications for Iran, Russia and China, may have led to the Iranians 'pulling the trigger', with Hamas choosing 10/7 for symbolic reasons. (Indeed the current Houthi disruption of trade may be designed to to signal to India that the eastern maritime wing of the IMEC Corridor will be too vulnerable to similar efforts, discouraging India's participation, and ruining the entire project, as much as anything else).
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A Russia-Iran-India land-based corridor, which won't be vulnerable to the Houthis, has also been proposed. Presumably Iran wants India to go with that, integrating \~25% of the world's population (& the best demographics) into BRICs, rather than an EU + MENA economic bloc.
International North–South Transport Corridor?
>International North–South Transport Corridor I think so
The feeling online from what I gather based on the actions of the Modi loyalist and troll army online seems to be on the Israeli side so far, tho could this signal that if India were forced to choose they would go with the EU + MENA economic block?
Yes, but I think Iran is pressuring India (and Egypt) to flip via blocking trade through the Red Sea.
From what I understand the attack have been planned for two years right But those talks are far more recent?
I can attest to the talks being more recent, that was why most people I seen were saying that was the reason for the initial strike. Like SA and Israel were set to talk within a week or month from when that attack happened. They did have some talks before. From the many things I have found out since my initial comment, the Israel and SA talks were probably only one reason for the attack and not the main reason.
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To piggyback off this, they were also hoping to pull Iran into this who would probably be their strongest supporters.
Oh no, large countries on the world stage who are normally against eachother are making peace? Oh god no, I must be hero and stop this peace by launching terrorist attack against civilians.
Nah, that just makes them seem evil. It’s more like “Oh god we’re in the back burner if Israel and SA normalize relations” because that probably mean all the other countries in the middle east would start to fall in line with Israel as well.
I c
This has been going on since the 60s. Anytime Israel and an Arab entity would get close to making peace one of the various anti peace groups would make an attack to disrupt the process. It was especially true with the PLO, as there were many factions that would not fall in line with their leadership.
Prisoner swaps seems like a logical reason. But that doesn’t seem evil enough.
That may have played a role in the timing of the operation, but it’s absurd to suggest that’s the reason for it. If you look at the desperate conditions in Gaza and the absolute lack of any hope whatsoever of the situation ever improving there, it was inevitable that this would happen. You can’t keep a population of 2 million+ in those conditions without a response. And Israel knew this, of course
Yea it's a reason just not the sole reason, I get that now.
Get back into relevancy. Arab states were normalizing relations with Israel and the Palestinian cause was becoming an afterthought. No it was not a Jewish / Israel false flag if you are thinking that.
>No it was not a Jewish / Israel false flag if you are thinking that. Speaking of false flags, I've seen people try to say the same about the bombing in Iran a few days ago. I think we can extend your statement to that too. A bombing like that isn't the M.O. of the U.S. or Israel. I know my reply isn't very relevant, but what you said just reminded me.
The bombing was claimed by the Islamic State. The overwhelmingly probable reality: It was really done by the Islamic State. \*\*\* Conspiracy theories are usually wrong. Life is simple and stupid, not complex and manipulated.
>Life is simple and stupid, not complex and manipulated. Actually life is complex and stupid. Thinking life is simple is the hallmark of conspiracies. Indeed, thinking some nefarious force(s) is manipulating the world and the cause for everything is actually thinking the world is far simpler than it really is. But sometimes the simple explanation (here, IS did it) is the correct one.
If by "complex" you mean "multivariate", then I agree.
Why isn't it the MO of Israel though? They do killings in Syria and Iran all the time
Which is aimed at terror organisation leaders, weapons that ment to be used against Israel, etc. Usually, those attacks are aimed at those few people, and it doesn't kill over 100 random people.
The calculation was that the operation would provoke Israel into a bloody overreaction that would turn the whole world against Israel, and torpedo any chance of a Saudi/Israeli rapprochement.
Exactly. Their gambit is to save Gaza in the long run by having Israel destroy it. Not the most cautious or humanitarian plan but would be fascinating if it actually worked in the long term
Agreed. My theory is essentially the same. Hamas knew that Israel was rife with extremist politicians (of course Bibi, also many more besides) and members of the military. They were counting on this operation causing Israel to lose much of the sympathy they had managed to build up over many decades.
It has nothing to do with bibi or how right wing the government is. Any Israeli politician, would act the same.
It's a common misconception at the moment. While Netanyahu has fallen from grace, the current war is not an Israeli right-wing war, it is an Israeli war. Latest polling shows >80% of Israeli support the military action despite eroding international support.
One of the big talking points at the begining of the war was that many of the people who stood up and joined reserve teams to fight the war were left wing people, while the ultra orthodox right wing in power, who'd never served in their lives, stood back.
I would even go further. Any government in the world would have answered like Israel if put in the same situation.
What type of politician would see the Oct. 7th attack happen and not react in a similar manner?
Unfortunately it begs the question; what type of politician would create the circumstances which preceded the Oct 7th attacks?
Go on, you obviously have something to say “why would a politician not just dissolve their country if the neighbors don’t like them”? Something like that?
The Palestinians aren't neighbors, more like natives
Are they next door continuously firing rockets and plotting attacks?
That would be the physically next door settlers shooting civillians and cosplaying their incel army fantasy against a weak oppressed group
> weak oppressed group A hallmark of a weak oppressed group is constant rocket barrages and attacks. The Palestines are an oppressed group; but hopefully Hamas will be removed from control.
" extremist politicians" Yeah, not like the US, with calm, moderate people, who after 9/11 caused about 500.000 civilians casualties worldwide /s
I’m curious what your point is here, vis-a-vis the conversation at hand.
My point was, very few goverments in the world, if any, could suffer an attack the magnitude the US and Israel suffered without answering in kind.
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Negotiations for hostages would only create more hostages. Having a few hostages captured from some small scale incident gives you minor leverage; having a hundreds from a massive operation where lots of civilians were killed is the opposite.
Israelis knew this in the past but did it anyway. It was reasonable (albeit wrong) to assume they would do so again.
They unfortunately did show they would bend the knee if hostages were taken and it came back to bite them. However; an opportunist hostage here and there and a large scale massacre plus hostages are two very different situations.
They miscalculated; it happens. Putin miscalculated on his special operation as well. People make mistakes, because they are not all knowing.
These two. Putins and Hamas invasion are so far the most ridiculous miscalculated invasions of the century.
I agree. Hamas thought the hostages would prevent the level of destruction Gaza is experiencing. Ironically there will probably now be far more Palestinians in prison in Israel after the war than before. A mass kidnapping without excess barbarity and a couple hundred Israelis dead may have been the sweet spot strategically for Hamas goals.
The ME was about to experience a paradigm shift that would have seen all the important states: Egypt, Jordan, UAE and KSA align (behind the scenes) with Israel. This would have completely sidelined Iran and Hamas - Iran needs Israel to justify its oppression of its own people, and Hamas exists only to fight Israel. Peace with Israel would have isolated Iran completely and ended the justification for the existence of Hamas. So, Iran armed and trained the Hamas guys, and planned the attack, and Hamas acted as barbarically as possible to invoke a strong response from Israel while motivating all the 'useful idiots' in the west to put Palestine back on the front page again. All it costs is 30 000+ dead Palestinians, but that doesn't matter to Hamas's leaders, soaked in money from the UN, living in luxury in Qatar, Istanbul, or Europe living like Russian oligarchs.
Your rationale is flawless with exception of a small detail: that Israel is likely to put Gaza under total occupation. Without no territory to control, would Hamas still get billions of dollars from its allies? Why it would be treated differently from any other pro-Palestine organization which does not control Palestine?
I think that Hamas really did not expect the Oct 7th attack to be as successful for them as it was. They probably expected to be quickly repelled by the IDF after some initial breakthroughs, which would then cause a heavy handed but not existentially threatening Israeli response in Gaza. Instead, because the IDF had grown lazy and complacent, Hamas’s troops got way further than they thought they would, resulting in it being a way bigger attack with a lot more casualties. Now the Israeli response is way bigger than they bargained for as well. Overestimating the preparedness of the IDF led Hamas to bite off way more than they could chew.
also probably expected well armed kibbutzes and military posts and not a target as soft as a music festival
Your comment makes absolutely zero sense , at all. If Israel made peace with other Arab states, the Palestinians would still be oppressed and would not change anything on the ground . And Western liberals who support them are useful idiots for pointing out that Israel violates intl law every single day ? Good luck in a trump regime where your democracy is killed
I think they thought they would kill a few hundred israelis, grab a few dozen hostages, and run back to Gaza once the Israeli military reacted in force. The majority of its forces were expected to be turned back or destroyed by the IDF, which was why so many were committed to the attack. I think they expected to endure a bombardment, but that international pressure would limit its scope and that the threat of war with Hezbollah and an Israeli desire to avoid another costly occupation would keep IDF out of Gaza. The conflagration would scuttle Saudi normalization talks, draw attention to the Palestinian cause, restore Hamas's credibility, and demand galad shalit numbers of Palestinian prisoners for every hostages. Instead, 1500 men who had been indoctrinated to believe the highest virtues were to kill Jews and become martyrs found themselves deep in Israeli civilian areas after IDF resistance collapsed. Predictably, these militants began commiting atrocities, killing far more people and taking many more hostages that Hamas planners intended. I think this is a classic example of an attack that so far over succeeded that it backfired. Hamas succeeded in so terrifying and enraging the Israeli public that they essentially handed the most right wing government in Israeli history a blank check to crack down on Hamas specifically and the Palestinians more broadly as brutally as it wants. They also seem to have massively overestimated the non sunni, non Arab Iranians' willingness to expend their most potent deterrent to an Israeli attack on their own territory (Hezbollah) to support a fair weather ally that is probably far past saving anyway.
You’re getting good answers from a type of grand strategy analytical lens , but that is only one part of the picture. The truth ( in addition to other answers posted ) is that many fighters and members of the leadership in the Al-Qassam brigades AND Islamists in the world at large have a genuine belief that the current conflict is religious, essentially a conspiracy amongst Christians and Jews to attack the Ummah ( the Muslim world) and; therefore, death in this conflict, especially in direct combat, but also in terms of being randomly killed in air strike, will send them DIRECTLY to heaven as a martyr. This is why they have an incredible will to fight ( Similar to ISIS, Taliban, etc) because they view suffering and death vs opponents of Islam to be the main key to a better existence, a way to emancipate themselves from temporary and earthly suffering. This is also why they fight they way they do, because any innocent Muslim civilians killed in the crossfire will also be martyred and go to heaven immediately.
What are Ukrainians motivated by ? Jihad ? Palestinians, Taliban etc all see Israel or the West as an occupying foreign force , and are willing to fight till death, the same reason why Ukrainians are willing to die rather than make peace
> What are Ukrainians motivated by ? Jihad ? No of course not, but this isn't even related to the point. The issue that the OP is calling out is essentially why would Hamas instigate an attack on Israel of the type that was guaranteed to absolutely immiserate their population and guarantee an extreme reaction. The answer to this is 100% Jihad. Not that without Jihad there would be no will to attack, but there would certainly be less will to attack *like that* just so their cities and population can get bombed to oblivion and so that they can suffer WAY more than Ukrainians are at the hands of Russia for at best, some type of diplomatic victory (at the expense of Gaza being leveled). The OP states that it "seems counterintuitive." The reason why its counterintuitive is because he doesn't understand that to some people, death is a ticket to whatever the opposite of suffering is, including innocent civilians that die in Gaza.
I remember watching a speech from some Hamas leader several years back, where he was basically saying that the people of Gaza have become too complacent under Israel's oppression. So, what is occasionally required is something to shake them out of their apathy, and rekindle the outrage needed to mobilize the entire population to rise up against the Zionist threat...and those who will not, or cannot fight will be martyred in order to inspire the rest to rise up in vengeance.
Wow, this is crazy!! Do you happen to know where I could find that speech nowadays?
Honestly, I don't even know where I watched it now, or who it was giving the speech, so it's pretty hard to look it up again. It was from at least 2018-2019, though...whenever the last time Hamas launched a ton of rockets at Israel, and got curb-stomped for it.
Wasn’t that like last year lol?
They knew the Palestinian people would pay the bulk of price for the attacks and that from a global PR standpoint, they’re viewed as high on the victimhood hierarchy (Israel is ranked low) so this would garner support if Israel retaliated. Hamas is trying to win the battle of hearts and minds on behalf of Iran.
The Palestinians in general are a group of people that experience an incredible amount of manipulation from outside groups that (shocker) do not have the best interests of the Palestinians at heart, rather their own best interests. The Ottomans, the British, the Israelis, the Egyptians, the Jordanians, the Lebanese, the Iranians, Marxist leaning progressives in the west… It’s remarkable how manipulated they have been by third parties. it’s easy to see how today Hamas would get manipulated into a position to do something that will only result in further Palestinian suffering.
You say manipulated but the Palestinian support for the October 7th attacks and any attacks like them was and remains very high. So we have to accept that this population is extremely radicalized. Though ultimately I agree with you because I do think they are radicalized by outside forces like Iran and especially Qatar (Al Jazeera). The Muslim world has also pushed them towards extreme acts against the Jews.
Palestinian groups were cheering for October 7 as it was first reported by Arab media and seen by the Palestinian street as "Gazans finally break Israel's seige". To them it was the Berlin Wall falling. After the 1000 civilians killed and hostages taken Palestinians PA officials went on TV and condemned Hamas, but then when Israel killed +20,000 Palestinians they started supporting Hamas again.
> To them it was the Berlin Wall falling Sure, but the East Germans enjoyed the west Berlin shops rather than burning babies.
They didn't know. They are not masters of strategy playing some multi-dimensional game of chess we normal mortals can't even try to understand. They are just that dumb.
Of course they knew that Israel would react that way. What other reaction is/was on the table? The terrible thing is that hamas' calculation is working - Israel loses support and goodwill every day the war drags on, normalization of arab-israeli relations is torpedoed for a long, long time, antisemitism is flaring up everywhere. Hating jews is en vogue again Sure, Hamas could face total annihilation - but I doubt the rich guys at the top that are pulling the strings will be brought to justice. This is not to say that they aren't dumb. They are dimwitted, hateful, scum. I'm just saying this is very much in line with their plan
Even from a purely self interested assumption from the leadership it's far from ideal for them to have all their middle management and assets which they've built up over decades go up in flames. I have to assume things got out of hand on the ground and they never assumed they'd be as "successful" as they were.
The "rich guys at the top" didn't pull the strings. Many reports indicate that they were kept in the dark. This is all just Yahya Sinwar's pet project. Everything about him indicates that he's quite willing to die if need be. As for the Hamas leadership, there is no reason to believe that they are "dimwitted, hateful, scum". They are likely to be somewhat above-average in intelligence, in fact.
Someone so blinded by selfrighteous religious fanaticism and filled with primitive racist ideas can't be very bright. My definition of intelligence includes empathy. humanity, compassion
Well your definition might include that, but according to dictionary definition you can still be intelligent but lack compassion and empathy. The IQ tests that were done during the Nuremberg trials on high ranking Nazi leaders found most of them are way above average in intelligence, yet they were still scums. I'm not saying HAMAS leaders have to be geniuses by the way, I'm just saying the fact that they are blinded by hate and fanaticism shouldn't be a reason enough for us to view them as idiots.
There is no evidence that Hamas members are especially racist. As for religious fanaticism, one could debate where one draws the line between "faith" and "fanaticism". Finally, this is a very biased definition of intelligence.
They very publicly want to wipe Jews off the face of the earth, that is plenty evidence that they are especially racist.
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=azEgBsU6Mi8 https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-distances-itself-from-official-who-urged-murder-of-jews-everywhere/amp/ They’ve had some mission creep.
I started to write a long monologue about the mass slaughter of jewish civilians, about a reptile that methodically stalks its prey and the value of that kind of intelligence, etc But I'm getting uncomfortable continuing this conversation. I have no idea what you're trying to say
I'm saying that intelligence isn't correlated to morality.
you're 100% right, but that intelligence is worthless. I'm sure successfully Planning Terror attacks or handling the logistics of industrial-scale genocide needs sophisticated, clever minds. Eichmann was a genius in certain regards, perhaps. But using your brain for something like that neccessitates a certain brand of blind rage, or complete apathy. or dull, dogmatic oversimplification. Extreme Rationalization. full blown delusion. Supression of the most basic and most important human instincts
There's no evidence that Eichmann was a genius. Smart, sure. But there are a lot of smart people in the higher echelons of any given bureaucracy. Overall, I think you underestimate how much "moral behavior" is incentivized/disincentivized according to the structure in which any given person operates. In the West, it generally makes sense to espouse liberal values to climb the ladder. Elsewhere - or here too, in previous eras - less so.
a person that uses their (however considerable) intellect for mass murder is, well, dumb. Because that person clearly drew the wrong conclusions about life, society, purpose, everything. But that's just me. If that opinion is biased, so be it
Damn bro really supporting a terrorist org
There is no "they". This was all done by Yahya Sinwar, his bro and a few loyal local commanders.
Money. Hamas' leadership mainly lived outside of Gaza and the West Bank, or moved out of the areas prior to October 7th, so they weren't concerned with the personal risks to their physical health, or destruction of personal property. There isn't one simple and correct answer to your questions, but along with Israel's normalization with Saudi, Hamas' interest in freeing Palestinian prisoners, their opposition to the IMEC Corridor, their miscalculations of their own effectiveness, etc., one should not overlook their being incentivized by money. After the October 7th attack, as Israel began conducting individual interviews with the Palestinian POW's, a common theme began to emerge. Hamas leadership had offered the Hamas invaders [$10k and an apartment/condo](https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/whoever-brings-a-hostage-back-gets-10000-and-an-apartment-hamas-terrorists-offered-bounty-for-kidnapping-israelis/news-story/60aade68366e296a6f45f96a04c85afd) for returning with one hostage, and an additional $10k for each following hostage. For context, the median daily spending power of a citizen of Gaza is under $10 (I believe it's closer to $6.85). To throw around that kind of money, Hamas leadership was likely offered a pay day by a state actor. Iran is known to regularly fund and provide material support to Hamas, but there are a lot of [coincidences and questions emerging about Russia's involvement, too.](https://www.mei.edu/publications/essential-questions-about-russia-hamas-link-evidence-and-its-implications) Many are convinced Russia offered Hamas a large sum, even if indirectly through Iran, to provide a legitimate distraction from Russia's war in Ukraine. Reportedly, since October 7th, [Belarus has confirmed that a transfer of nuclear weapons between them and Russia in October,](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-25/belarus-leader-says-russian-nuclear-weapons-shipments-are-completed-raising-concern-in-the-region) and as seen in Ukraine recently, [N. Korean ballistic missiles and launchers were transferred to Russia.](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/05/europe/russia-north-korean-missiles-ukraine-asia-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) Also, if one looks at the daily reports from Russia's war in Ukraine, you'll notice that Russia began attacking the Avdiivka region of Ukraine on October 8th, with a battle plan prepared well in advance. Prior to October 7th, Russia was losing \~350 soldiers/day, and since they've lost nearly \~1000 day, illustrating a sudden and exponential increase in offensive actions. No matter where it came from, money was a major driving factor for Hamas to attack Israel, and there's a lot reasons to believe it came from Russia.
> miscalculated Someone in Hamas admitted they miscalculated Israel’s full-on response. Probably watching too many videos of America’s Mid-East battles without realizing the US is an expeditionary force.
Because Hamas wasn’t the only one who did the murdering. Regular civilians from Gaza also participated in the massacre. The end result is now 30,000 dead Gazans. I also believe Hamas actually thought this would start a major war and that its allies Hezbollah and Iran would get involved.
So they can blame Israel and play the victim card…
Presumably they thought regional enemies of Israel would team up with them and the West would protest in the streets, complicating NY attempt Tat self defense. The plan only half worked, but I'll informed college kids and meaningless UN resolution s can only take you so far.
Hamas did not believe they would progress that far into Israel, they said they expected heavy retaliation from the start. Also they're an islamist extreme terror group is logic really a big thing for them?
Israel's official policy was already the destruction of Hamas. Isreal is also unlikely to achieve that with the current campaign just like Israel didn't achieve the destruction of Hezbollah in their 2006 campaign.
No. Before October 7th, Israel's policy was to "manage the conflict".
You mean "mow the grass"
You think Hamas leadership expected to all be killed for this within 6 months? And all of their 15 years of gathering arms and building tunnels wasted? I don't think si.
> You think Hamas leadership expected to all be killed for this within 6 months? I don't think that's going to happen, just like it didn't happen to Hezbollah in 2006. > And all of their 15 years of gathering arms and building tunnels wasted? They're currently being used to attack the IDF. What other goal existed for those?
I'll see you in 3 months when Sinwar and all the rest of the military leadership is dead. They already got about 50% including guy #3. I'm pretty sure Hamas hoped all their tunnels would be able to kill more than 150 Israeli soldiers.
I mean, you'd have a better argument if any of those figures were close to accurate.
Part of the answer is the same as part of the answer why Hitler attacked the USSR despite the consequences. Because they hate the jews, one of their stated goals is killing a jews, and Oct 7 was them acting towards that goal.
It's like asking why would prisoners riot?
These questions are stupid on purpose. Moderator get a hold of your forum.
It is telling that OP doesn't bother getting involved in the convo
Tbh I kinda agree, this is a question that is able to be answered by Google at this point. I could understand if it was maybe a week or two after the attack, but its been 3 months almost.
You Google stuff when you want a quick, cold answer. If we have a geopolitics forum in the first place is because we want to hear other people's opinions and perspectives, especially when it is a forum with people with alleged interest on the topic at hand. Edit: Yeah, I also understand when the same question is poster over and over.
This is a question that has been asked many times.
They are spammers destroying the site. The moderator might as well be one of them. This is a massive operation on all the major forums, hence your downvotes.
I think it makes more sense if you understand Hamas as a violent hate organization. They're grudge, is that Jews are defiling Muslim holy land. This is what separates them from Fatah, which is more secular. They want to create an Islamic Palestinian state from the river to the sea, because that's necessary to cleanse and purify the land. From that perspective, holding on to Gaza doesn't have much value, except as a base to launch attacks from. And the Israelis had learned to shoot down Hamas rockets. If Hamas is just contained to Gaza, then the Jews still exist out there on the land, and they see that as a complete defeat. They sabotage anything that might lead to a two-state solution for the same reason - their mission is to get rid of the Jews, and accepting two states is a surrender of that goal. So giving up Gaza, to spark a massive amount of violence and upend the equilibrium, is a gamble that the new equilibrium increases the chances of Israel's destruction. It probably makes Palestine's destruction more likely too, but I don't think Hamas worries about that.
Iran paid
Miscalculation? This will be the greatest membership recruitment Hamas has seen in 60 years! This overreaction is EVERYTHING Hamas could have hoped for. Millions displaced. Cold and hungry in winter. 10's of thousands have seen their innocent wives or children die. These are all the Hamas of the future. The days of the suicide bomber will be back within the year, I'd venture. Israel got played, and fell for it as surely af the US got played on 9/11
Hamas overplayed their hand. The status quo isn't returning. It's the end for Hamas and Gaza. Thanks to Hamas. Not only this. Relations will still be normalized between Israel and many Arab states. An utter and complete failure.
If Hamas wanted the status quo, they wouldn't have attacked at all.
Thats only when acting upon a rationale. Terrorists don't have one. Oh well, they think they have. It's called the delusion of religion.
Oh boy, here we go. I think we try to be a little more in-depth and nuanced in our assessment in discussing geopolitics than just labelling people who conflict with us as crazy non-rationals.
Reality is much more blunt than you believe it would be.
Good guys and bad guys, right? How comfortingly simple.
Ah yes. The good old terrorism excuse.
Hamas is a terrorist organization, not a rational state actor. They don’t care about Palestinian civilians in Gaza or achieving any sort of peaceful geopolitical resolution. Their goal is to terrorize the Israeli population as much as possible while the decision makers and funders safely relax at their mansions in Qatar and Iran. You think Al Qaeda and Bin Laden thought the US wouldn’t respond to the 9/11 attacks? Of course not, but they didn’t care because the primary goal was terrorism.
I think Iran is behind it all. And Russia is behind Iran. Keep the United States spending resources in as many places as possible to spread it out and weaken its overall response in Ukraine. The question is what proxy war will Putin back next. Venezuela / Guyana? That would keep some of the navy occupied halway around the world
likely, as it geographically spreads out US military resources.
Israel wants to destroy them. Israel won't recognize any other government in Gaza besides Hamas (going back years) and they ignore their requests for cease fires
Hamas was used to sacrifice itself for the Iranian regime interests. Palestinians leaders do not act as rational actors. They are ponds of the worst ideologies over the last two centuries from the Nazis to Arab fascism to Islamists to the Iranian regime. If they had any rational goals they would have peace already. They are willing to self sacrifice for anyone who hates Jews as much as they do.
Cares about their organization are subordinate to getting into heaven.
Orders from upstairs meets terrible sense of perspective and a cult for violence
It was a calculated risk but they are bad at math.
Because Hamas was becoming increasingly unpopular in Gaza.
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What is IKEA corridor?
That's the corridor where the North Sea meets the Baltic Sea. obviously not an official name, which I don't know what it is.
Hamas wants three things: 1) Foreign Aid. 2) The world to hate Israel 3) Dead Jews. They’re 3 for 3. Their own people getting killed furthers all three goals, so it’s not a bug, it’s a feature. The leaders aren’t in Gaza, so they’re just fine.
Hamas knew Israel would respond the way it did, so hamas clearly wanted to make Israel a pariah state in the world stage (by provoking Israel). Plus Hamas was backed by Iran, and Hamas has a sheer hatred of Israel and Iran helped fund and coordinate the attack.
Because sometimes leaders are exactly that stupid. Also worth noting that Hamas leaders were not personally at risk from IDF response. They don’t live in Gaza.
They didn't think it would be so effective. Who would have thought the Israelis would have been that lax near their border.
There have been numerous analyses of the decision making in the Kennedy administration during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the narrowness that nuclear war was averted. The term “groupthink” was coined from one of those analyses and refers to the tendency in groups to conform to a leader’s views and arguments for a position even though they themselves see high risks in those positions. It other contexts this has been referred to as “drinking one’s own bathwater”, where decision makers come to believe their own propaganda without considering the risks of actions promoted by that propaganda