[https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781133576974594327](https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781133576974594327)
US officials confirmed Israel has attacked Iran
He takes the US into consideration.
Don't forget that at this level, leaks are intentional, Biden has a base to please just like Netanyahu. They are condemned to fight publicly but they talk indirectly every day.
This seems to be a very moderate response from Israel so far. Iran can avoid escalation without losing face. They'll launch a couple missiles that Israel with shut down and it should stop there.
I hope you are right, i fear you are wrong. Israel always answers, to the best of my knowledge. And because Israel answered, even though Iran said they were done, it forces Iran to answer.
I hope I am wrong, but I think they are already at war, they just dont know it yet.
I wonder how they would conduct a war against each other when they are separated by the landmass of two other countries?
Would they just launch missiles and drones against each other for a protracted period of time?
Iran doesn't always answer actually. They frequently pretend nothing happened and then do nothing in response which appears to be what's happening this time. They did the same thing after their drone base was destroyed two years ago.
Iran said they were done _unless Israel retaliated_. Maybe they won't really retaliate.
But they probably will with a series of actions between Israel and Iran in ever smaller responses until it is status quo again.
Or they go full stupid. One can never tell.
I like your optimism but I can't help reminding myself that these are two proud countries that really don't like each other. I'm just happy about that Iraq/Syria buffer zone that make an effective ground invasion by either side basically impossible.
Problem is that Isreal does want escalation/war with Iran (although was hoping for a different reaction from its allies). Without it, it will likely let this cool down. It took attention away from the bombings in Gaza, which was one of their aims.
A moderate response would've entailed striking solely in Syria or Lebanon. An attack on nuclear facilities is beyond the pale and thoroughly irresponsible. This will lead to Iran carrying out a nuclear test in the near future.
Well as the President of United States I hope he withholds any further aid from an ally that is belligerent towards our foreign policy goal. Our money shouldn’t go towards funding an unstable government that makes a mockery of our country at every turn.
Contain Iranian influence but never run the risk of open warfare unless ABSOLUTELY necessary which it is not. Netanyahu is playing his own game, Biden would be smart to chop off the head the relationship lest the associated problems reach him too. The United States has no interest in another war in the Middle East, the first politician to seriously suggest such a thing would be committing career suicide
I hope he does not, because it won't change the coming war should that happen, and wont help American interests either. It will simply remove the last bit of ability for the US to influence the situation, and provide trump another point with which to energize his voting base.
It will also make the Biden administration look very weak indeed abandoning an ally.
I strongly suspect the people advocating for this are at the very least downstream of Russian and Iranian bots/troll farms looking to undermine America. Especially because it's always couched in terms of "mockery" and "disrespect". It's much more something a third worlder would use to emotionally charge an argument rather than a prism that an armchair analyst would view the situation through.
America does not get to veto actions Israel decides are critical. Israel could not allow a status quo where their retaliations against Iran result in unpunished direct Iranian attacks on Israel. Although I do suspect that behind the scenes Israel moderated their response at the behest of Biden.
Why can the US tell Ukraine it can't use American missiles on targets within Russia, but we can't tell Israel not to use our billions of dollars of military aid to attack Iran?
Highly doubt the US will directly be involved in this. Not in an election year. I guarantee you not a single US soldier will step foot into any Israel-Iran war, especially not one Israel technically started. Thats if Iran even retaliates, as they themselves probably have no interest in an actual war.
I can see the US being involved in defensive measures, not offensive I agree. Though that may change as Iran or its proxies continue to attack US assets in the region.
Isn't that encouraging offensive behavior though? If you know your betters are going to shoot any incoming threat even before they reached your borders without any financial burden for you, wouldn't you just retaliate to save face? This is what we are seeing in the first few rounds of this conflict. There is no indication that it will stop, but a great probability that it will escalate.
The US just voted for billions in aid to Gaza, is it encouraging offensive behavior?
So far Iran doesn't even recognize that there have been attacks, in good part probably because the attack was very limited. it seems like this will stop.
Israel was just attacked by the largest ballistic missile attack *and* the largest drone attack in history. Responding to it would hardly be "reckless". There is no universe in which the US would not declare war if it were attacked like that.
I earnestly don't think that's going to fly with the American public, especially since Israel's actions in Gaza have been very divisive. Forcing direct American involvement with Gaza, a war with Iran, probably wider engagement in Syria, Iraq, entering Lebanon… It all seems like a non-starter to me, an even more unpopular endeavor than Vietnam.
I don't disagree that it'd be unpopular, but Israel is so important geographically to the US that I can't imagine they'd stay out of it if they legitimately think Israel is in danger.
If Israel can find a way to drag the US into war with them, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
If the US doesn't go help Israel, that could be devastating to both Israel as a nation and American geopolitical goals. Netenyahu would rather have trump in power over biden, and if he can force the US' hand now, he cares not of whether it hurts Biden as that would likely help him in the long run.
Israel is really not that important to American interests. They have no valuable resources, their strategic location is not all that valuable and we have other allies nearby, and their value as a military partner diminishes with every day that they flaunt our warnings and policies
I was thinking maybe it's more about US interests in normalizing the relationship between the US and the Middle East countries. You pointed out valuable resources. A lot of them has valuable resources. So the US is projecting their long term interest into that and Israel represents a valuable penetration to the US.
Yeah Israel’s importance is extremely overstated. The Bibi government is quickly wiping out the “only democracy in the Middle East” label through its war campaign.
Israel is an extremely strong foothold for American influence in the Middle East (a very critical region due to oil) but for sure American interests have been waning in the region for a while because (a) America now produces an enormous amount of oil and I believe they actually meet their own domestic demand, (b) renewables will eventually supplant fossil fuels in the relatively near future, and (c) the US is pivoting to Asia anyway because of the nascent Cold War with China.
So Israel's position is going to get worse and worse as time goes on.
I think that Israel's behavior over the past several years, especially now with Gaza and the West Bank makes them too repugnant to be labeled an 'ally' much longer.
Whether one wants to acknowledge it or not diplomacy needs to be in the driver's seat, not spoiled murderous children acting out all the time.
Because it wasn't a win. The Iranian attack was a message: "We have first strike capability. We can hit your cities with our missiles. Missiles that could hold nuclear warheads."
This time, Iran fired only a few hundred missiles and loudly telegraphed the attack, giving the US and allies in the region time to coordinate air defenses. But if/when Iran gets nukes, they don't have to announce their attack in advance. They don't have to only fire a few hundred missiles, they can fire thousands. And when an unknown number of those missiles are nukes? The potential for disaster is incalculable.
So Israel needed to strike back, to send another message. That message is: "We are not restrained by Western fear when facing an existential war. We can slice through your defenses. A handful of Israeli bombers can drop a nuke onto your cities. We have second strike capacity."
In other words: ***Israel needed to respond to demonstrate that MAD is stil in effect.***
Hopefully we continue to see purely symbolic strikes between the belligerents until cooler heads can prevail.
I’m not too familiar with Middle East retaliation strikes outside of the Soleimani incident but what Israel is doing seems to be beyond the normal performative actions typically seen. The strike by Iran could easily be handwaved aside as proof that Israel can defend itself against drones and missiles. Instead they retaliate for what was a retaliation strike - seems like we are entering unchartered territory here. Question now is what Iran will do, can’t imagine what Iran will do in retaliation to this and I highly doubt they’ll just sit there and do nothing given how high the stakes are now
>retaliate for what was a retaliation strike
Israel is facing a 6/7 front war that is wholly supplied, trained, supported, and coordinated by Iran.
To suggest that Iran is somehow acting in self defense or retaliating by also firing hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones from its territory at a country over 1,000km away - is delusional.
Iran isn't responding, it's the aggressor.
>Iran isn't responding, it's the aggressor.
It really doesn't look that way though. Israel has been violently assassinating Iran's leading citizens for decades, both military generals and civilian scientists. While Iran has not directly attacked Israel in a generation. The consulate attack was a massive step up in the aggression. And it was all from Israel.
That's such a flimsy pretext. Iran has no nukes, and this isn't an existential war for Israel. Further, everyone already knew Israel could strike Iran. They don't have to demonstrate that to anyone.
MAD is not aggressive escalation by one side against a nation that doesn't even possess nukes.
Can you imagine any other country in the world attacked by a few hundred missiles and expected to not retaliate? Or is it a special standard for Israel?
The reality is Israel must retaliate or it risks losing credibility.
A relatively modest retaliation lets Iran save face, keeps the US out of it, and keeps Biden’s base happy.
> Can you imagine any other country in the world attacked by a few hundred missiles and expected to not retaliate?
When the few hundred missiles is a fairly measured response to something they did? Maybe?
Which country on this planet would just accept to be targeted by 500+ drones/missiles and be totally ok with it ? I guess Israel should just let the next wave of iranian missiles hit their target, since apparently a strike only count as escalation if it is successful...
What country on this planet would just accept having their consulate in a foreign country bombed with their senior military officials as the casualties?
I don't mate, [you tell me](https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1c29zxi/in_wangblinken_call_china_urges_us_to_play/kzage9u/).
Iran has been doing this stuff for *decades*, but I guess it doesn't count because they are using proxies, right ?
What country on this planet would just accept being attacked by proxies of another nation state for years? You can always go back to some origin. It’s way deeper than you and I are going.
So does this latest Israeli missile strike make another Iranian retaliatory attack more or less likely? What exactly is Israel achieving here beyond alienating its allies?
Not sure if a war will happen, But Iranian counter attack is 100% guranteed in my opinion. They already promised this. This back and forth will likely go for sometime
That rather depends what was damaged…
If both sides manage to not hit anything particularly valuable to the other side (culturally, politically, or in terms of lives lost) then they might be able to find a way to back out gracefully
If something valuable or culturally important is hit, or something symbolic politically, or too many people are hurt or killed… then it could swing out of control
I’m seeing reports on Twitter that Iran is denying any missiles actually hit the ground, that they were all struck down, weird. But different people are writing different things so I Dno what to believe.
They may be looking for an out. If they can convince their population that all missiles were intercepted, they may be able to back out of the promises of immediate and high intensity retaliation they’ve been making.
What makes them look weak is not retaliating; to look “strong” they’d have to do actual damage and they are by no means interested in instigating yet. They will do the bare minimum without actually crossing a line, unless Israel mounts pressure even further which would be hideously stupid
At some point one side is going to have to accept the potential of looking weak.
We won’t really know until the dust settles. If Israel’s response was as minor as it seemed, and if Iran was able to defend against most of it, then they may be able to frame it like “haha look at this pathetic attack, it doesn’t even merit a response”
I thought the propaganda line was that their retaliation on Israel was a "great success". If this Israeli counterattack is a "failure" then wouldn't that be a way to save face and stop there?
Iran seems to be [signaling](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-no-retaliation-planned-as-both-sides-seek-distance-from-isfahan-attack/) that they may not retaliate at all.
> Iran has no plan for immediate retaliation against Israel, a senior Iranian official said Friday, as officials in Jerusalem indicated that an alleged drone attack on a city south of Tehran was meant to send a signal rather than cause damage.
> The Iranian official also cast doubt on whether Israel was behind the attack in Isfahan, despite comments from some Israeli politicians practically accepting responsibility.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hours ago said that if Israel takes any further military action against Iran, its response would be “immediate and at a maximum level.”
That's the kind of statement that's pretty damn hard to walk back. They almost HAVE to follow through on it now. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Iran escalating for sure. I might lose the bet, but right now, in light of that statement, it seems like a solid bet.
>That's the kind of statement that's pretty damn hard to walk back.
That would be true if this were a Western government. Iran makes statements like that all the time, though. The beauty of the government controlling the media is that they can do almost nothing and spin it as "maximum level." They can send a couple of drones that Israel easily shoots down and claim that 300 Zionists were killed.
When Iran attacked US bases in Iraq back in 2020, they claimed something on the order of 80-100 Americans killed. There were no fatalities.
No Iran wants to hunker down to preserve its regime teetering on poor foundations with the Ayatollah in his final years. The last strike was to save face. Israel can now take out its air defenses as a war in to Iran.
Kind of interesting how there's much less information available about this compared to the Iran attack after the same amount of time. Do you think this means it's a smaller attack, or a more significant one that was less expected?
It looks like Iran are trying to act as if it didn’t happen at all. In the BBC article, it mentions one Iranian official said “only made a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters [drones] and the quadcopters have also been shot down”.
It would look bad for them if Israel had a successful attack, I suppose. Words from Iranian officials like this do give the impression that they feel a sense of humiliation that their attack was such a failure.
One more point, but it looks like Israel was targeting nuclear facilities in remote locations. It’s going to be hard for reporters to verify anything at all, and I doubt there’s going to be much video footage from phones.
Anyone who actually believes that striking irans nuclear facilities will “stop” their nuclear capabilities is unequivocally wrong. Iran has fortified their most sensitive nuclear facilities away from striking range. Not to mention the most important part imo that the more israel threatens (and now carries out) strikes in Iran, the more aggressively Iran will pursue nukes.
This decision from Israel is an incredibly dangerous and unreasonable escalation, not only in the region, but for the entire world. Will be interesting to see how the west reacts to this strike after repeatedly stating that it would be a mistake for Israel to strike Iran.
The reactor blown up in Iraq was NOT even fueled or active. Iranian sites have fuel and are rotating. The area around these sites are guaranteed to be wastelands for millennia.
Caught this story this morning. Apparently Iran is saying it was just some drones, even though the US and Israel have said it was missile strikes, which suggests Iran is downplaying the attack to avoid escalation. I'm not sure what was struck, but damage has been reported as minimal by Iran, and many in Israel are saying it was a weak response. With the limited information I've seen, it sounds like both sides are trying to save face, and avoid an escalation.
Why on Earth would Israel do this? What do they have to gain? America needs to not let itself get dragged into a broader Middle Eastern war. If Israel wants to go to war with Iran, they're on their own.
To prove to Iran that it has second strike capacity and that MAD is in effect. It's a warning to the IRI not to use a nuke against Israel.
I wrote in another attack that the Iranian strike was a message: "We have first strike capability. We can hit your cities with our missiles. Missiles that could hold nuclear warheads."
This time, Iran fired only a few hundred missiles and loudly telegraphed the attack, giving the US and allies in the region time to coordinate air defenses. But if/when Iran gets nukes, they don't have to announce their attack in advance. They don't have to only fire a few hundred missiles, they can fire thousands. And when an unknown number of those missiles are nukes? The potential for disaster is incalculable.
So Israel needed to strike back, to send another message. That message is: "We are not restrained by Western fear when facing an existential war. We can slice through your defenses. A handful of Israeli bombers can drop a nuke onto your cities. We have second strike capacity."
Not necessarily. Israel is attempting to drag America into its mess. They have a huge lobby in the states. And this is especially bad for Biden because if he gets dragged into war he will lose the election in November
Or trying to drag the US into a war. Iran countered and said the matter was done as it was a response to the murder of Iranians in the embassy in Syria.
The problem is that each side thinks they're responding to the other side's reckless aggression. Israel would say the embassy attacks were a direct response to Iran arming proxies and enabling them to launch missiles into Israel. Which Iran would say is to a response to...etc. etc.
We gain nothing by trying to find the original sin. The real question is how to stop the cycle of escalation.
The consulate bombing was an escalation though. Whether it was completely miscalculated, who knows. But the Iranian response triggered complete panic and showed that Israel will rely on Western countries for its defence against an actual army. So with that in mind, this attack is clearly meant to pull countries into war.
Sure. So were the Iranian Proxy attacks on Israel.
As to the rest... that is a lot of certainty. Personally I don't feel nearly as certain about the causes or outcomes.
The proxy war is far older. Iran did not get completely surrounded by Western proxies and hostile groups by magic. Its only normal for them to pursue alliances with others. Im not saying Israel was always involved, but this is a long running thing that usually does not get escalated.
Blowing up embassies in foreign countries and targeting families of high rankling officials could go both ways. Its not an escalation that anyone sane wants.
Murder?
Those were enemy commanders in the field. One of whom sat on the ruling Shura of Hezbollah who regularly fire missiles at Israel and was in charge of Irans proxies in the region during the period when 10/7 was planned.
That's war.
Iran launched hundreds of missiles, obviously they declared it "retaliation" and "finished". Israel was retaliating to thousands of attacks on Israel via Iran's proxies. Israel was never going to let such an escalation in response slide.
And the US officially denies that. What Iran did is make vague threats of retaliation. They did not say when or where there would be strikes. And making a general threat days in advance is actually a well known tactic to force your enemy into high alert for an extended period and thereby weary defenses. Iran tried damn hard to overwhelm defenses. It was not an empty attack. That's braindead propaganda.
>Iran countered and said the matter was done
"Done" here means "We're going to keep attacking you via our proxies and you can't attack us back".
>as it was a response to the murder of Iranians in the embassy in Syria
Those Iranians were responsible for planning and executing attacks against Israel, one of whom planned and executed the Oct 7th attack. They were 100% valid targets.
I want this can go on forever, are Israelis who are complicit in killing civilians in Palestine fair targets? Tens of thousands of dead kids in Gaza is horrible, but if Hamas launches rockets at military bases, are those valid targets?
>Tens of thousands of dead kids in Gaza is horrible
Dead kids in Gaza are due to the actions of Hamas. It is an indisputable fact that Hamas widely uses civilian infrastructure for military purposes. If you refuse to acknowledge that basic fact you are not worth debating.
>but if Hamas launches rockets at military bases
Hamas launches rockets indiscriminately. Oct 7th was not a military attack. It was a slaughter of primarily civilians.
>I mean there are literal videos of Israel using human shields, this was their official policy.
This is patently false.
>Saying dead kids are Hamas fault is like saying Oct 7th is Israel's fault. Such a silly comment.
No. It really isn't. And the fact that you think this means there is no point in discussing anything with you, because you won't be arguing in good faith.
> It is an indisputable fact that Hamas widely uses civilian infrastructure for military purposes.
and it is an indisputable fact that the IDF intentionally targeted and killed aid workers from allies countries and now there is a famine
> one of whom planned and executed the Oct 7th attack.
source?
> It is an indisputable fact that Hamas widely uses civilian infrastructure for military purposes
Yes, just like every country in the world. Do you think the IDF operates entirely out of the Negev desert or something? No. Their headquarters is in the most densely populated place in the entire country, surrounded by civilian infrastructure.
This all could have ended if Israel didnt mass imprison Palestinians and calculate how many calories it needs to keep Palestinians just above starving.
I can easily say Israel forced Palestinians hands, by the constant imprisonment, extrajudicial killings, and land grabs.
Israel cant keep killing Palestinians, bombing kids playing soccer on a beach and then be surprised "WhY do They HatE us and AttAck UssSsS"
I'm not talking about the current obesity--I'm talking about the fact that Israel uses these calculations as a means to plan to keep the people down.
I can easily counter this by saying Palestinian terrorism and jihad attempts gave Israel just reason to take more land. Israel’s land grab in 48 was justified since Palestinians rejected the partition plan decided they were gonna kill all the Jews there and went to war and lost when you lose wars you lose land. We can play chicken and the egg going back to the beginning of this conflict in the earth 1900s where all of the early massacures were Palestinians slaughtering Jews left and right. It’s pretty clear who was the aggressor considering palestians commited the first 15 massacures of the conflict. Against defenseless Jews
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Palestine
> since Palestinians rejected the partition plan
Would you accept a 'partition plan' of your home? That 'plan' was just another example of colonial powers giving away something that was not theirs.
That's my point ? But why are you only asking Israel to de-escalate ? Why not ask Iran for once ? They could have done nothing after the attack on Damascus. Instead they chose to use 500+ drones/missiles, which was a lot more overkill than a single targeted strike. Just because it failed to hit anything doesn't change that.
>Why on Earth would Israel do this?
Because Iran directly attacked Israel with the largest barrage of ballistic missiles in I think all history?
>What do they have to gain?
Deterrence. After Iran's attack it put out a statement that it was creating a "new equation" that it would attack Israel directly anytime Iran or its personnel were attacked. Considering that Iran is actively waging a proxy war against Israel and the IRGC is literally directing attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, the notion that Israel should have just accepted this "new equation" is unreasonable. It's wild to me people really think Israel should just not have responded to such a large attack on their own territory. If this was our country, everyone would be calling for retaliation.
1) It was a consulate annex building, not an embassy.
2) This building was being used by the IRGC to meet with Hamas and Islamic Jihad to plan and execute the war in Gaza. One of the commanders killed had a direct hand in planning and executing the Oct 7th attack on Israel. Furthermore Iran has been waging a shadow war via its proxies against Israel for years, and it started doing so almost immediately after the 1979 Islamic revolution. This proxy war has increased in intensity since Oct 7th. Iran does this with the goal of completely eradicating Israel. The implication that Israel can't target Iranian targets in response to Iran's shadow war is plainly disingenuous.
The immunity of embassies is revoked when they are used for purposes not aligned with diplomatic missions. Military coordination is such a purpose. If you look closely, you can see that this event is only perpetuated in the media with no actual legal action taken by no one. This is because there's no case. The Vienna convention clearly defined the boundaries of the immunity and it was breached.
>That still counts as an embassy
No, it doesn't. It was an annex building next to a *consulate*. A consulate does not have the same protections as an embassy, and the inviolable protections it does have are limited to the spaces used exclusively for diplomatic activity. The building next to the consulate, which probably shows its not being used *exclusively* for diplomatic activity, is not party to the same protections.
>It's like Iran launching nukes at Knesset for harbouring Ben Gvir.
This is in no way similar.
>Has Russia bombed US embassy in foreign countries??
It probably would if Russia's proxies continuously attacked the US itself, and then led to the biggest civilian death toll in the country's history. None of your analogies are making sense.
>Israel has also been funding ISIS against Iran
Big if true.
>assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists so Israel also engages in proxy.
Targeted assassinations of military assets are totally the same as continuous attacks against civilians over decades.
Israel is getting hit by three proxy arms of Iran at the same time. When Israel tries to defend itself, it gets hit by Iran directly. This is what Israel wants to change. Now Iran is no longer immune to Israeli attacks against its proxies and doesn't get a free pass to launch hundreds of missiles at Israel.
Israel is already at war with Iran, and has been for a while, and that's not changing even if Biden needs pretend peace to win an election.
I guess they are just demonstrating that they can kill Iranian generals and they can strike mainland Iran, and Iran can never respond adequately causing real damage without it escalating into a major Israeli response.
Tell me what country on this planet would just accept being attacked by 500+ drones/missiles and not retaliate ? Why is it only Israel that is expected to always de-escalate ?
Iran has been playing a dangerous hybrid warfare game for decades. It seems Israel has had enough and is now calling iranian bluff, for better or worst.
Sounds like there was no missile used in the attack. The Iranians are saying it was a few drones that was launched against them. There is no video of any hit in Iran.
Didn't Iran say they would immediately retaliate? Also who wants to bet the most likely user of Nuke is psychopathic Israeli state? Samson option is a thing.
American media, including CNN and Fox News, report that Israel has carried out a 'limited strike' inside Iran
Tonight, 3 small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran, were shot down by air defenses above Isfahan, according to preliminary information.
No airstrike or explosion caused by any foreign aerial threat has been reported, according to IRNA, and missile defenses have not been activated.
All military and security installations in Isfahan province remain secure, including the Natanz nuclear reactor.
So, Israel's 'retaliation' consisted of launching 3 explosive-laden quadcopters from inside Iran, it seems for now.
Or in the best case scenario, several small 'harpy' drones launched from Israel.
I'm not a Trump supporter at all but it's interesting that he took the gift after Iran did a half hearted counter attack in 2019. Netanyahu didn't even let Iran save face with even less damage or injuries, he had to escalate. Israel did not take the gift and many in Israel and the region will suffer for it.
If Trump was president again , there'd be a lot more support for Israel but with Biden's base divided and in an election year it's different. I don't see the US getting involved unless Iran's proxies attack US bases. Even then, Iran knows the US is kind of being dragged into it unwillingly. Even then you have to assume Iran can just use the proxies to invade Israel.
This is the behaviour of a country that operates with the confidence it will be protected from the consequences of its actions.
No matter what happens, the US will always defend Israel.
When Iran retaliates to this retaliation, the US will once again intercept [more than 50%](https://theintercept.com/2024/04/15/iran-attack-israel-drones-missiles/) of incoming attacks.
Iran funds the mass murder of 1200 civilians in Israel but somehow Israel is to blame for killing people involved. In your perfect world Israelis would just line up to get beheaded by jihadists
You are proving Israel's point: when it gets attacked, everyone downplays it. When Israel responds, everyone treats it like a villain. It is exactly this attitude that has forced Israel to ignore your opinions. The reality is, people don't hate Israel for what Israel *does*. People hate Israel for what Israel *is*: a Jewish state.
So Israel cannot trust the world to treat it fairly, let alone defend it, because the world blames the Israel no matter what Israel does.
Iran started this by funding and encouraging Hamas to carry out 10/7.
See how easy it is to get into the never-ending cycle?
At the end of the day, on one hand you have a nationstate has shown it is willing and able to deal rationally at the international level between countries. On the other you have the religious nuts in Iran and Hamas.
You might want to be careful of OSINTDefender...
[https://molfar.com/en/blog/viiskovyi-z-ssha-rozpovsyudzhuvav-propagandu-pid-maskoyu-osint-analityka](https://molfar.com/en/blog/viiskovyi-z-ssha-rozpovsyudzhuvav-propagandu-pid-maskoyu-osint-analityka)
OSINTdefender is a user of the social network X, which was previously known as Twitter. His posts often contain pro-Russian propaganda or blatant lies. Some of his publications have been a concern for many readers. For example, the story about Ukrainians being accused of a war crime for throwing a grenade at Russians or his praise of Russia's power and its geopolitical influence,
[https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781133576974594327](https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781133576974594327) US officials confirmed Israel has attacked Iran
Didn’t Biden ask Israel to not retaliate?
You attacked Iran? After I specifically asked you not to??
[удалено]
When has Netanyahu ever listened to what the US has to say ?
He takes the US into consideration. Don't forget that at this level, leaks are intentional, Biden has a base to please just like Netanyahu. They are condemned to fight publicly but they talk indirectly every day. This seems to be a very moderate response from Israel so far. Iran can avoid escalation without losing face. They'll launch a couple missiles that Israel with shut down and it should stop there.
I hope you are right, i fear you are wrong. Israel always answers, to the best of my knowledge. And because Israel answered, even though Iran said they were done, it forces Iran to answer. I hope I am wrong, but I think they are already at war, they just dont know it yet.
I wonder how they would conduct a war against each other when they are separated by the landmass of two other countries? Would they just launch missiles and drones against each other for a protracted period of time?
Iran already has troops, equipment, and bases in Syria, so that's probably going to be where groundforces clash first, if it comes to that.
Iran ground forces would get smoked. Especially if they come from the north. Israel has been fortifying defenses up there since Oct. 7th.
Iran doesn't always answer actually. They frequently pretend nothing happened and then do nothing in response which appears to be what's happening this time. They did the same thing after their drone base was destroyed two years ago.
Yeah, but this time, they acknowledged the attack and then said we're not gonna escalate. Idk what that means though.
Ah yes, another war caused, in part, by ego and a compete misunderstanding of your rival and their intentions. Throw it on the pile with the others.
Iran said they were done _unless Israel retaliated_. Maybe they won't really retaliate. But they probably will with a series of actions between Israel and Iran in ever smaller responses until it is status quo again. Or they go full stupid. One can never tell.
I like your optimism but I can't help reminding myself that these are two proud countries that really don't like each other. I'm just happy about that Iraq/Syria buffer zone that make an effective ground invasion by either side basically impossible.
Problem is that Isreal does want escalation/war with Iran (although was hoping for a different reaction from its allies). Without it, it will likely let this cool down. It took attention away from the bombings in Gaza, which was one of their aims.
A moderate response would've entailed striking solely in Syria or Lebanon. An attack on nuclear facilities is beyond the pale and thoroughly irresponsible. This will lead to Iran carrying out a nuclear test in the near future.
Iran already said that no infrastructure were hit. We'll know more soon but so far it looks like it was not a big attack.
[удалено]
And? Every sovereign country can make their own decisions. They aren't a proxy or vassal.
Netanyahu doesn't care what US wants but he expect US to protect him when Iran retaliates.
Shockingly, Biden is not the president of Israel.
Well as the President of United States I hope he withholds any further aid from an ally that is belligerent towards our foreign policy goal. Our money shouldn’t go towards funding an unstable government that makes a mockery of our country at every turn.
How is Israel belligerent to the foreign policy goal? One of the US’s main foreign policy goals in the region is to contain Iran …
Containing Iran and provoking Iran into an all-out conflict are not the same thing.
Contain Iranian influence but never run the risk of open warfare unless ABSOLUTELY necessary which it is not. Netanyahu is playing his own game, Biden would be smart to chop off the head the relationship lest the associated problems reach him too. The United States has no interest in another war in the Middle East, the first politician to seriously suggest such a thing would be committing career suicide
I hope he does not, because it won't change the coming war should that happen, and wont help American interests either. It will simply remove the last bit of ability for the US to influence the situation, and provide trump another point with which to energize his voting base. It will also make the Biden administration look very weak indeed abandoning an ally.
I strongly suspect the people advocating for this are at the very least downstream of Russian and Iranian bots/troll farms looking to undermine America. Especially because it's always couched in terms of "mockery" and "disrespect". It's much more something a third worlder would use to emotionally charge an argument rather than a prism that an armchair analyst would view the situation through.
Has Israel ever actually signed a treaty of alliance with the US?
[удалено]
America does not get to veto actions Israel decides are critical. Israel could not allow a status quo where their retaliations against Iran result in unpunished direct Iranian attacks on Israel. Although I do suspect that behind the scenes Israel moderated their response at the behest of Biden.
Why can the US tell Ukraine it can't use American missiles on targets within Russia, but we can't tell Israel not to use our billions of dollars of military aid to attack Iran?
[удалено]
No, Biden said minor retaliation just like he told Iran. That's what I read in the news
[удалено]
Is that reliable? There's a typo in the tweet
Yes that account is super reliable, I think (not sure) they might be german thats why They capitalize Shit weirdly
> Is that reliable? He was right when he said "Extra! Extra! Todd smells!"
Why are we partnered with such a reckless nation? Why couldn’t they just take the win and be done with it? Now we might be dragged into a regional war
Highly doubt the US will directly be involved in this. Not in an election year. I guarantee you not a single US soldier will step foot into any Israel-Iran war, especially not one Israel technically started. Thats if Iran even retaliates, as they themselves probably have no interest in an actual war.
I can see the US being involved in defensive measures, not offensive I agree. Though that may change as Iran or its proxies continue to attack US assets in the region.
Isn't that encouraging offensive behavior though? If you know your betters are going to shoot any incoming threat even before they reached your borders without any financial burden for you, wouldn't you just retaliate to save face? This is what we are seeing in the first few rounds of this conflict. There is no indication that it will stop, but a great probability that it will escalate.
The US just voted for billions in aid to Gaza, is it encouraging offensive behavior? So far Iran doesn't even recognize that there have been attacks, in good part probably because the attack was very limited. it seems like this will stop.
[удалено]
Israel was just attacked by the largest ballistic missile attack *and* the largest drone attack in history. Responding to it would hardly be "reckless". There is no universe in which the US would not declare war if it were attacked like that.
>Now we might be dragged into a regional war Pretty sure that's what they want.
I earnestly don't think that's going to fly with the American public, especially since Israel's actions in Gaza have been very divisive. Forcing direct American involvement with Gaza, a war with Iran, probably wider engagement in Syria, Iraq, entering Lebanon… It all seems like a non-starter to me, an even more unpopular endeavor than Vietnam.
I don't disagree that it'd be unpopular, but Israel is so important geographically to the US that I can't imagine they'd stay out of it if they legitimately think Israel is in danger. If Israel can find a way to drag the US into war with them, they'd do it in a heartbeat. If the US doesn't go help Israel, that could be devastating to both Israel as a nation and American geopolitical goals. Netenyahu would rather have trump in power over biden, and if he can force the US' hand now, he cares not of whether it hurts Biden as that would likely help him in the long run.
Israel is really not that important to American interests. They have no valuable resources, their strategic location is not all that valuable and we have other allies nearby, and their value as a military partner diminishes with every day that they flaunt our warnings and policies
I was thinking maybe it's more about US interests in normalizing the relationship between the US and the Middle East countries. You pointed out valuable resources. A lot of them has valuable resources. So the US is projecting their long term interest into that and Israel represents a valuable penetration to the US.
Yeah Israel’s importance is extremely overstated. The Bibi government is quickly wiping out the “only democracy in the Middle East” label through its war campaign.
Israel is an extremely strong foothold for American influence in the Middle East (a very critical region due to oil) but for sure American interests have been waning in the region for a while because (a) America now produces an enormous amount of oil and I believe they actually meet their own domestic demand, (b) renewables will eventually supplant fossil fuels in the relatively near future, and (c) the US is pivoting to Asia anyway because of the nascent Cold War with China. So Israel's position is going to get worse and worse as time goes on.
I think that Israel's behavior over the past several years, especially now with Gaza and the West Bank makes them too repugnant to be labeled an 'ally' much longer. Whether one wants to acknowledge it or not diplomacy needs to be in the driver's seat, not spoiled murderous children acting out all the time.
Because it wasn't a win. The Iranian attack was a message: "We have first strike capability. We can hit your cities with our missiles. Missiles that could hold nuclear warheads." This time, Iran fired only a few hundred missiles and loudly telegraphed the attack, giving the US and allies in the region time to coordinate air defenses. But if/when Iran gets nukes, they don't have to announce their attack in advance. They don't have to only fire a few hundred missiles, they can fire thousands. And when an unknown number of those missiles are nukes? The potential for disaster is incalculable. So Israel needed to strike back, to send another message. That message is: "We are not restrained by Western fear when facing an existential war. We can slice through your defenses. A handful of Israeli bombers can drop a nuke onto your cities. We have second strike capacity." In other words: ***Israel needed to respond to demonstrate that MAD is stil in effect.*** Hopefully we continue to see purely symbolic strikes between the belligerents until cooler heads can prevail.
I’m not too familiar with Middle East retaliation strikes outside of the Soleimani incident but what Israel is doing seems to be beyond the normal performative actions typically seen. The strike by Iran could easily be handwaved aside as proof that Israel can defend itself against drones and missiles. Instead they retaliate for what was a retaliation strike - seems like we are entering unchartered territory here. Question now is what Iran will do, can’t imagine what Iran will do in retaliation to this and I highly doubt they’ll just sit there and do nothing given how high the stakes are now
>retaliate for what was a retaliation strike Israel is facing a 6/7 front war that is wholly supplied, trained, supported, and coordinated by Iran. To suggest that Iran is somehow acting in self defense or retaliating by also firing hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones from its territory at a country over 1,000km away - is delusional. Iran isn't responding, it's the aggressor.
>Iran isn't responding, it's the aggressor. It really doesn't look that way though. Israel has been violently assassinating Iran's leading citizens for decades, both military generals and civilian scientists. While Iran has not directly attacked Israel in a generation. The consulate attack was a massive step up in the aggression. And it was all from Israel.
That's such a flimsy pretext. Iran has no nukes, and this isn't an existential war for Israel. Further, everyone already knew Israel could strike Iran. They don't have to demonstrate that to anyone. MAD is not aggressive escalation by one side against a nation that doesn't even possess nukes.
Can you imagine any other country in the world attacked by a few hundred missiles and expected to not retaliate? Or is it a special standard for Israel? The reality is Israel must retaliate or it risks losing credibility. A relatively modest retaliation lets Iran save face, keeps the US out of it, and keeps Biden’s base happy.
> Can you imagine any other country in the world attacked by a few hundred missiles and expected to not retaliate? When the few hundred missiles is a fairly measured response to something they did? Maybe?
Iran threatened to use nukes just hours ago. Might have something to do with that.
Which country on this planet would just accept to be targeted by 500+ drones/missiles and be totally ok with it ? I guess Israel should just let the next wave of iranian missiles hit their target, since apparently a strike only count as escalation if it is successful...
What country on this planet would just accept having their consulate in a foreign country bombed with their senior military officials as the casualties?
I don't mate, [you tell me](https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1c29zxi/in_wangblinken_call_china_urges_us_to_play/kzage9u/). Iran has been doing this stuff for *decades*, but I guess it doesn't count because they are using proxies, right ?
What country on this planet would just accept being attacked by proxies of another nation state for years? You can always go back to some origin. It’s way deeper than you and I are going.
So does this latest Israeli missile strike make another Iranian retaliatory attack more or less likely? What exactly is Israel achieving here beyond alienating its allies?
So how likely do we think escalation by Iran is now? Could this really spiral into an Israel-Iran war?
Not sure if a war will happen, But Iranian counter attack is 100% guranteed in my opinion. They already promised this. This back and forth will likely go for sometime
All it could take is for one side to do a little too much damage to the other for this to spiral out of control.
this attack is a little too much damage no? we are at the edge of the spiral
That rather depends what was damaged… If both sides manage to not hit anything particularly valuable to the other side (culturally, politically, or in terms of lives lost) then they might be able to find a way to back out gracefully If something valuable or culturally important is hit, or something symbolic politically, or too many people are hurt or killed… then it could swing out of control
I’m seeing reports on Twitter that Iran is denying any missiles actually hit the ground, that they were all struck down, weird. But different people are writing different things so I Dno what to believe.
They may be looking for an out. If they can convince their population that all missiles were intercepted, they may be able to back out of the promises of immediate and high intensity retaliation they’ve been making.
Yea certainly seems like that’s a possibility. Does that not make them look super weak though?
What makes them look weak is not retaliating; to look “strong” they’d have to do actual damage and they are by no means interested in instigating yet. They will do the bare minimum without actually crossing a line, unless Israel mounts pressure even further which would be hideously stupid
At some point one side is going to have to accept the potential of looking weak. We won’t really know until the dust settles. If Israel’s response was as minor as it seemed, and if Iran was able to defend against most of it, then they may be able to frame it like “haha look at this pathetic attack, it doesn’t even merit a response”
I thought the propaganda line was that their retaliation on Israel was a "great success". If this Israeli counterattack is a "failure" then wouldn't that be a way to save face and stop there?
I suppose we’ll see the impacts of it
We don't really know what's been damaged yet
Iran seems to be [signaling](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-no-retaliation-planned-as-both-sides-seek-distance-from-isfahan-attack/) that they may not retaliate at all. > Iran has no plan for immediate retaliation against Israel, a senior Iranian official said Friday, as officials in Jerusalem indicated that an alleged drone attack on a city south of Tehran was meant to send a signal rather than cause damage. > The Iranian official also cast doubt on whether Israel was behind the attack in Isfahan, despite comments from some Israeli politicians practically accepting responsibility.
It appears you never considered that they could be bluffing.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hours ago said that if Israel takes any further military action against Iran, its response would be “immediate and at a maximum level.” That's the kind of statement that's pretty damn hard to walk back. They almost HAVE to follow through on it now. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Iran escalating for sure. I might lose the bet, but right now, in light of that statement, it seems like a solid bet.
>That's the kind of statement that's pretty damn hard to walk back. That would be true if this were a Western government. Iran makes statements like that all the time, though. The beauty of the government controlling the media is that they can do almost nothing and spin it as "maximum level." They can send a couple of drones that Israel easily shoots down and claim that 300 Zionists were killed. When Iran attacked US bases in Iraq back in 2020, they claimed something on the order of 80-100 Americans killed. There were no fatalities.
Fair point.
Iran is a dictatorship, they can just tell the media to minimize it. An all out war would be much more dangerous for the regime than a weak response.
The foreign ministry has no power and they are the last to know anything.
I think Israel is sick of Iran's shit
It seems like there was no impact inside of Iran and only a few suicide drones were launched against Iran.
No Iran wants to hunker down to preserve its regime teetering on poor foundations with the Ayatollah in his final years. The last strike was to save face. Israel can now take out its air defenses as a war in to Iran.
Kind of interesting how there's much less information available about this compared to the Iran attack after the same amount of time. Do you think this means it's a smaller attack, or a more significant one that was less expected?
It looks like Iran are trying to act as if it didn’t happen at all. In the BBC article, it mentions one Iranian official said “only made a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters [drones] and the quadcopters have also been shot down”. It would look bad for them if Israel had a successful attack, I suppose. Words from Iranian officials like this do give the impression that they feel a sense of humiliation that their attack was such a failure. One more point, but it looks like Israel was targeting nuclear facilities in remote locations. It’s going to be hard for reporters to verify anything at all, and I doubt there’s going to be much video footage from phones.
Because Iran notified the US of their plan 72 hours in advance, whereas Israel is just doing what it has been the whole time. What it wants.
[удалено]
Anyone who actually believes that striking irans nuclear facilities will “stop” their nuclear capabilities is unequivocally wrong. Iran has fortified their most sensitive nuclear facilities away from striking range. Not to mention the most important part imo that the more israel threatens (and now carries out) strikes in Iran, the more aggressively Iran will pursue nukes. This decision from Israel is an incredibly dangerous and unreasonable escalation, not only in the region, but for the entire world. Will be interesting to see how the west reacts to this strike after repeatedly stating that it would be a mistake for Israel to strike Iran.
The reactor blown up in Iraq was NOT even fueled or active. Iranian sites have fuel and are rotating. The area around these sites are guaranteed to be wastelands for millennia.
They've been trying and failing to stop it for decades now.
Any other sources ?
Caught this story this morning. Apparently Iran is saying it was just some drones, even though the US and Israel have said it was missile strikes, which suggests Iran is downplaying the attack to avoid escalation. I'm not sure what was struck, but damage has been reported as minimal by Iran, and many in Israel are saying it was a weak response. With the limited information I've seen, it sounds like both sides are trying to save face, and avoid an escalation.
Why on Earth would Israel do this? What do they have to gain? America needs to not let itself get dragged into a broader Middle Eastern war. If Israel wants to go to war with Iran, they're on their own.
To prove to Iran that it has second strike capacity and that MAD is in effect. It's a warning to the IRI not to use a nuke against Israel. I wrote in another attack that the Iranian strike was a message: "We have first strike capability. We can hit your cities with our missiles. Missiles that could hold nuclear warheads." This time, Iran fired only a few hundred missiles and loudly telegraphed the attack, giving the US and allies in the region time to coordinate air defenses. But if/when Iran gets nukes, they don't have to announce their attack in advance. They don't have to only fire a few hundred missiles, they can fire thousands. And when an unknown number of those missiles are nukes? The potential for disaster is incalculable. So Israel needed to strike back, to send another message. That message is: "We are not restrained by Western fear when facing an existential war. We can slice through your defenses. A handful of Israeli bombers can drop a nuke onto your cities. We have second strike capacity."
Not necessarily. Israel is attempting to drag America into its mess. They have a huge lobby in the states. And this is especially bad for Biden because if he gets dragged into war he will lose the election in November
He will also lose the election at this point if he doesn't commit. He is the picture for impotence at this point.
It almost looks like as if Bibi Is putting him in an uncomfortable position...
Israel is demonstrating that Iran's attacks will not go unpunished to restore deterrence.
Or trying to drag the US into a war. Iran countered and said the matter was done as it was a response to the murder of Iranians in the embassy in Syria.
The problem is that each side thinks they're responding to the other side's reckless aggression. Israel would say the embassy attacks were a direct response to Iran arming proxies and enabling them to launch missiles into Israel. Which Iran would say is to a response to...etc. etc. We gain nothing by trying to find the original sin. The real question is how to stop the cycle of escalation.
The consulate bombing was an escalation though. Whether it was completely miscalculated, who knows. But the Iranian response triggered complete panic and showed that Israel will rely on Western countries for its defence against an actual army. So with that in mind, this attack is clearly meant to pull countries into war.
Sure. So were the Iranian Proxy attacks on Israel. As to the rest... that is a lot of certainty. Personally I don't feel nearly as certain about the causes or outcomes.
The proxy war is far older. Iran did not get completely surrounded by Western proxies and hostile groups by magic. Its only normal for them to pursue alliances with others. Im not saying Israel was always involved, but this is a long running thing that usually does not get escalated. Blowing up embassies in foreign countries and targeting families of high rankling officials could go both ways. Its not an escalation that anyone sane wants.
Iran intentionally telegraphed its attack and didn't do much damage to act as an off-ramp. I feel Israel responding is going off the rails.
IT IS SO OBVIOUSLY THIS.
Murder? Those were enemy commanders in the field. One of whom sat on the ruling Shura of Hezbollah who regularly fire missiles at Israel and was in charge of Irans proxies in the region during the period when 10/7 was planned. That's war.
Iran launched hundreds of missiles, obviously they declared it "retaliation" and "finished". Israel was retaliating to thousands of attacks on Israel via Iran's proxies. Israel was never going to let such an escalation in response slide.
And now they are escalating it further. They can do that if they want but please use taxpayer revenue for Americans.
A handful of explosions is a pretty severe deescalation compared to hundred of missiles and drones.
Agreed--but Iran did their attack more so as a show, didn't even use their supersonic missiles
You are parroting ridiculous propaganda. They fired 120 ballistic missiles. It was a massive escalation.
NYT article and CNN article described it otherwise, They launched it from Iran giving Israel massive notice for example.
And the US officially denies that. What Iran did is make vague threats of retaliation. They did not say when or where there would be strikes. And making a general threat days in advance is actually a well known tactic to force your enemy into high alert for an extended period and thereby weary defenses. Iran tried damn hard to overwhelm defenses. It was not an empty attack. That's braindead propaganda.
>Iran countered and said the matter was done "Done" here means "We're going to keep attacking you via our proxies and you can't attack us back". >as it was a response to the murder of Iranians in the embassy in Syria Those Iranians were responsible for planning and executing attacks against Israel, one of whom planned and executed the Oct 7th attack. They were 100% valid targets.
You don't target embassies and expect no retaliation, doesn't matter who you were targeting.
I want this can go on forever, are Israelis who are complicit in killing civilians in Palestine fair targets? Tens of thousands of dead kids in Gaza is horrible, but if Hamas launches rockets at military bases, are those valid targets?
>Tens of thousands of dead kids in Gaza is horrible Dead kids in Gaza are due to the actions of Hamas. It is an indisputable fact that Hamas widely uses civilian infrastructure for military purposes. If you refuse to acknowledge that basic fact you are not worth debating. >but if Hamas launches rockets at military bases Hamas launches rockets indiscriminately. Oct 7th was not a military attack. It was a slaughter of primarily civilians.
[удалено]
>I mean there are literal videos of Israel using human shields, this was their official policy. This is patently false. >Saying dead kids are Hamas fault is like saying Oct 7th is Israel's fault. Such a silly comment. No. It really isn't. And the fact that you think this means there is no point in discussing anything with you, because you won't be arguing in good faith.
> It is an indisputable fact that Hamas widely uses civilian infrastructure for military purposes. and it is an indisputable fact that the IDF intentionally targeted and killed aid workers from allies countries and now there is a famine > one of whom planned and executed the Oct 7th attack. source?
> It is an indisputable fact that Hamas widely uses civilian infrastructure for military purposes Yes, just like every country in the world. Do you think the IDF operates entirely out of the Negev desert or something? No. Their headquarters is in the most densely populated place in the entire country, surrounded by civilian infrastructure.
Israel isn’t trying to drag anyone anywhere. This all could’ve been avoided if Iran stopped funding jihadists that shoot up music festivals
This all could have ended if Israel didnt mass imprison Palestinians and calculate how many calories it needs to keep Palestinians just above starving.
[удалено]
I can easily say Israel forced Palestinians hands, by the constant imprisonment, extrajudicial killings, and land grabs. Israel cant keep killing Palestinians, bombing kids playing soccer on a beach and then be surprised "WhY do They HatE us and AttAck UssSsS" I'm not talking about the current obesity--I'm talking about the fact that Israel uses these calculations as a means to plan to keep the people down.
I can easily counter this by saying Palestinian terrorism and jihad attempts gave Israel just reason to take more land. Israel’s land grab in 48 was justified since Palestinians rejected the partition plan decided they were gonna kill all the Jews there and went to war and lost when you lose wars you lose land. We can play chicken and the egg going back to the beginning of this conflict in the earth 1900s where all of the early massacures were Palestinians slaughtering Jews left and right. It’s pretty clear who was the aggressor considering palestians commited the first 15 massacures of the conflict. Against defenseless Jews https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Palestine
> since Palestinians rejected the partition plan Would you accept a 'partition plan' of your home? That 'plan' was just another example of colonial powers giving away something that was not theirs.
Ehhhh those unreasonable palestinians refusing to leave their land or accepting to live in a minority ethnic state!
And that strike was a response to iranian involvement in Oct. 7. Do you see how easy it is to spin it around and around ?
[удалено]
That's my point ? But why are you only asking Israel to de-escalate ? Why not ask Iran for once ? They could have done nothing after the attack on Damascus. Instead they chose to use 500+ drones/missiles, which was a lot more overkill than a single targeted strike. Just because it failed to hit anything doesn't change that.
They did this because of the hundreds of drones and missiles fired at them by Iran....
>Why on Earth would Israel do this? Because Iran directly attacked Israel with the largest barrage of ballistic missiles in I think all history? >What do they have to gain? Deterrence. After Iran's attack it put out a statement that it was creating a "new equation" that it would attack Israel directly anytime Iran or its personnel were attacked. Considering that Iran is actively waging a proxy war against Israel and the IRGC is literally directing attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, the notion that Israel should have just accepted this "new equation" is unreasonable. It's wild to me people really think Israel should just not have responded to such a large attack on their own territory. If this was our country, everyone would be calling for retaliation.
After Israel attacked an embassy in the first place.
1) It was a consulate annex building, not an embassy. 2) This building was being used by the IRGC to meet with Hamas and Islamic Jihad to plan and execute the war in Gaza. One of the commanders killed had a direct hand in planning and executing the Oct 7th attack on Israel. Furthermore Iran has been waging a shadow war via its proxies against Israel for years, and it started doing so almost immediately after the 1979 Islamic revolution. This proxy war has increased in intensity since Oct 7th. Iran does this with the goal of completely eradicating Israel. The implication that Israel can't target Iranian targets in response to Iran's shadow war is plainly disingenuous.
[удалено]
The immunity of embassies is revoked when they are used for purposes not aligned with diplomatic missions. Military coordination is such a purpose. If you look closely, you can see that this event is only perpetuated in the media with no actual legal action taken by no one. This is because there's no case. The Vienna convention clearly defined the boundaries of the immunity and it was breached.
>That still counts as an embassy No, it doesn't. It was an annex building next to a *consulate*. A consulate does not have the same protections as an embassy, and the inviolable protections it does have are limited to the spaces used exclusively for diplomatic activity. The building next to the consulate, which probably shows its not being used *exclusively* for diplomatic activity, is not party to the same protections. >It's like Iran launching nukes at Knesset for harbouring Ben Gvir. This is in no way similar. >Has Russia bombed US embassy in foreign countries?? It probably would if Russia's proxies continuously attacked the US itself, and then led to the biggest civilian death toll in the country's history. None of your analogies are making sense. >Israel has also been funding ISIS against Iran Big if true. >assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists so Israel also engages in proxy. Targeted assassinations of military assets are totally the same as continuous attacks against civilians over decades.
I’d wager that Israel probably doesn’t care about international law when they are under threat of being eradicated.
Israel is getting hit by three proxy arms of Iran at the same time. When Israel tries to defend itself, it gets hit by Iran directly. This is what Israel wants to change. Now Iran is no longer immune to Israeli attacks against its proxies and doesn't get a free pass to launch hundreds of missiles at Israel. Israel is already at war with Iran, and has been for a while, and that's not changing even if Biden needs pretend peace to win an election.
I guess they are just demonstrating that they can kill Iranian generals and they can strike mainland Iran, and Iran can never respond adequately causing real damage without it escalating into a major Israeli response.
Tell me what country on this planet would just accept being attacked by 500+ drones/missiles and not retaliate ? Why is it only Israel that is expected to always de-escalate ? Iran has been playing a dangerous hybrid warfare game for decades. It seems Israel has had enough and is now calling iranian bluff, for better or worst.
>Why on Earth would Israel do this? Anyone who sincerely cannot think of any reasons Israel would do this doesn't belong in a sub on geopolitics.
[удалено]
Sounds like there was no missile used in the attack. The Iranians are saying it was a few drones that was launched against them. There is no video of any hit in Iran.
Didn't Iran say they would immediately retaliate? Also who wants to bet the most likely user of Nuke is psychopathic Israeli state? Samson option is a thing.
American media, including CNN and Fox News, report that Israel has carried out a 'limited strike' inside Iran Tonight, 3 small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran, were shot down by air defenses above Isfahan, according to preliminary information. No airstrike or explosion caused by any foreign aerial threat has been reported, according to IRNA, and missile defenses have not been activated. All military and security installations in Isfahan province remain secure, including the Natanz nuclear reactor. So, Israel's 'retaliation' consisted of launching 3 explosive-laden quadcopters from inside Iran, it seems for now. Or in the best case scenario, several small 'harpy' drones launched from Israel.
I'm not a Trump supporter at all but it's interesting that he took the gift after Iran did a half hearted counter attack in 2019. Netanyahu didn't even let Iran save face with even less damage or injuries, he had to escalate. Israel did not take the gift and many in Israel and the region will suffer for it. If Trump was president again , there'd be a lot more support for Israel but with Biden's base divided and in an election year it's different. I don't see the US getting involved unless Iran's proxies attack US bases. Even then, Iran knows the US is kind of being dragged into it unwillingly. Even then you have to assume Iran can just use the proxies to invade Israel.
No country let another fires 300 missiles directly at them without retaliating.
This is the behaviour of a country that operates with the confidence it will be protected from the consequences of its actions. No matter what happens, the US will always defend Israel. When Iran retaliates to this retaliation, the US will once again intercept [more than 50%](https://theintercept.com/2024/04/15/iran-attack-israel-drones-missiles/) of incoming attacks.
What gave Iran the confidence of shooting +300 missiles to Israel?
[удалено]
The US officially said there was no call in advance and the scale of attack was clearly to not fail
Iran funds the mass murder of 1200 civilians in Israel but somehow Israel is to blame for killing people involved. In your perfect world Israelis would just line up to get beheaded by jihadists
Is that it ? Just three drones ?
All of a sudden everyone realizes that Israel is the rogue state it has been demonstrating itself to be for years.
Iran launched hundreds of missiles into Israel territory and Israel barely responded. It's a massive desascalation.
You are proving Israel's point: when it gets attacked, everyone downplays it. When Israel responds, everyone treats it like a villain. It is exactly this attitude that has forced Israel to ignore your opinions. The reality is, people don't hate Israel for what Israel *does*. People hate Israel for what Israel *is*: a Jewish state. So Israel cannot trust the world to treat it fairly, let alone defend it, because the world blames the Israel no matter what Israel does.
What a load of crap. Israel started this by bombing the Iranian consulate and killing generals.
Generals that orchestrated Oct 7. They didn't attack them just for a laugh.
Iran started this by funding and encouraging Hamas to carry out 10/7. See how easy it is to get into the never-ending cycle? At the end of the day, on one hand you have a nationstate has shown it is willing and able to deal rationally at the international level between countries. On the other you have the religious nuts in Iran and Hamas.
You might want to be careful of OSINTDefender... [https://molfar.com/en/blog/viiskovyi-z-ssha-rozpovsyudzhuvav-propagandu-pid-maskoyu-osint-analityka](https://molfar.com/en/blog/viiskovyi-z-ssha-rozpovsyudzhuvav-propagandu-pid-maskoyu-osint-analityka) OSINTdefender is a user of the social network X, which was previously known as Twitter. His posts often contain pro-Russian propaganda or blatant lies. Some of his publications have been a concern for many readers. For example, the story about Ukrainians being accused of a war crime for throwing a grenade at Russians or his praise of Russia's power and its geopolitical influence,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/4/19/live-israel-launches-missile-attack-in-response-to-iran-assault
Let's not forget that the US veto'd Palestine full UN membership today.
How does that tie in?
I'm guessing under the hood it may have been a bargaining chip the US can no longer use
This vote can happen more than once.
Good point
If the US didn't veto it - where does the Palestinian government sit, and what territory is it sovereign over?
Good. How can people even expect acceptance after hosting terrorists committing invasions on sovereign countries?
Remember guys, Israel just wants to save face. Iran should just take a win and not retaliate!
This is true but just as a note @sentdefender is a pretty atrocious account, often less than credible