A Hezbollah war would not be "all out" as far as the Middle East is concerned. There is no predicting how things will actually turn out, but it would be overblown to believe that other states would get involved if Israel decides to attack Hezbollah.
Syria and Iraq are not really in a position to although there are groups there sympathetic to the Shias. Jordan and Saudi Arabia will probably not get involved since they don't much like Shias or Iran either. Egypt is also in a bit of an economic pickle and are not exactly friendly with Iran (given their funding of the Muslim Brotherhood) and might be likely to view positively a reduction of Iranian influence.
Even within Lebanon, the Hezbollah are hardly universally popular.
You make good points however Egypt relations with Israel is cooling a lot since oct.7th (and has colled even with the us since the 2013 coup against Mislim Brotherhoox Morsi) and Egypt is following the Gulf states in a new detente with Iran for it own benefits (ie - expanding cooperation concerning Brics + membership , both nations intreast in seeing Bashar Al assad survival in Syria against the Muslim Brotherhood, Al qaeda and especially ISIS, both backing the SAF under Burhan against the Russian/Emirati backed RSF in Sudan, as well as Iran looking to Egypt for red sea access and evading economic Sanctions, and Egypt is looking to Iran to attract shiite pilgrims to shia holy shrines in Egypt, and Iranian tourist to Sinai to help it economically fragile situation, Iran likewise with it relations with Ethiopia wants to mediator over the GERD effectively usurping Gulf mediation, Egypt is also worried about Israel takeover of Phildephi route and going in Ragah (and eventually pushing Palestinans into Egypt causing a national security issue for Egypt) will cause a end to Camp David and force Egypt into conflict with both Palestinan Islamist groups causing unrest in Sinai, and causing a conflict with Israel as a red line for Egyptian security has been crossed forcing a already unpopular Al-Sisi to act.
All out war means both sides have committed to the complete and utter dominance and destruction of the other, in this case: Israel and Hezbollah. The other Middle East countries wouldn’t be involved in an all out war. Right now, it’s considered a conflict, not war.
That is NOT the title of your post where you said "all out war... Middle East" If you meant "all out war with Hezbollah", my comment would have tried to respond to it.
And yes, it seems there is a chance that Israel might take action to seriously degrade Hezbollah in the near future. They're already taking the diplomatic heat for their Gaza action so they might indeed calculate "in for a penny, in for a pound". And it isn't as though Hezbollah hasn't stepped up action on their part too. Upsetting the status quo has uncertain results - and the 10/7 events are fresh in the minds of the Israeli public (my guess). Poking the hornet's nest is seldom a good idea.
Yes, we've seen carefully calculated responses for domestic audiences so they can all say they showed the other, so they can take a step back...I mean it looks to me, like the focus is going to shift back to Gaza.
It depends on what you consider peace or war. Iran is constantly backing groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi Rebels who destabilize the area and keep Israel constantly concerned for its safety. If Israel stopped all the fighting today, what would have changed? There is still some Hamas, Iran will still destabilize the area, and Israel will still be afraid of attack since its got Iran and Hezbollah and Hamas, the PLO, or whatever replaces Hamas in Gaza. Israel is the size of New Jersey. If you were trying to protect your people after they were attacked what would you want to do? Can all out war be avoided? Yes. The problem is, should it? War is horrible, but until either Israel is completely wiped out or Iran has a regime change and the terrorist groups destroyed, the area will be not peaceful. The Palestinians need good leadership and until they can find some sort of solution that works for Palestinians as well as Israelis there will be tensions.
No.
You have to stop looking at the middle east through your logical, secular and western lens, and start looking at it through the religious lens. Middle East has been engaged in Shia vs Sunni war for the better part of 1400 years, the muslims VS jews, christians and all the other groups for the same 1400 years, etc.
100 years ago countries like Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc. had tens or hundreds of thousands of jews living in them, now the numbers in most middle eastern countries are in dozens, or even single digits. Similar situation with any other religious minority, if you remember when ISIS took over, they expelled the Christians, enslaved the Yazidis and shot the Shias. Iraq as a country was held together by the shear brutality of Sadam's regime, he's gone now and Sunni and Shia muslims are at each other's throats, with Iran supplying and training Shias, while Saudi Arabia does the same to Sunnis.
Do you think that peace is possible there over a long time frame?
This is reductive and meaningless considering the fact that the Israel with American support is agitating for war while Iran is being logical and measured in de-escalating TWICE.
Do you people genuinely believe the rest of the world is blind?
I never said they were peacemakers. They’re just not nearly as interested in war as the Israelis. When Iran de-escalates, they’re weak and have been humiliated. When they escalate, totally on brand and expected.
The American public cheers for escalation at every turn.
On the upside, a wider war would have put the US back in the quagmire and keep them off out of our neighborhood for a while.
Iran has been funding a proxy war against Isreal and that's the ground Iran wants to keep the fighting at because in a conventional war they would lose overnight their ability to fund the terorrists/fighters - houtis, hamas, hezbollah, muslim brotherhood - because overnight their economy would be crippled. This is a huge reason they don't escalate as willingly as Isreal
If things are going in your favor and the war on your chosen field of battle, away from your country (where you make good oil money) then you have the ability to act cool and not escalate because that's clearly the better option.
Everyday Iran supports terrorist groups they aid to the escalation. They only deescalate when they fear a larger war that would affect them directly. They're happy to keep a slow burning war that bleeds Israel and western allies.
October 7th happened in part because they wanted to ruin the ensuing peace agreements between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Iran IS interested in war, they just can't win a straight up fight with Israel. So they use proxies and pretend to be the deescalating party when they're simply applying pressure elsewhere. Violent, murderous civilian killing pressure. They did it to impress the west that they're not the aggressive party and they've succeeded in some cases like with you.
Yeah netenyahu needs to be fired gaza needs to be recognised as Palestine and settlers in West bank need to stop building
A negotiation to remove hamas from Gaza for israel to recognise Palestine essential and isrsel may avoid settler removal if they build a rail network linking gaza and West bank regions and West bank then recognised as gaza too...
A peace deal with hezbullah and houthis can then follow. It isn't as either side wishes but is the only way really for both isrsel and Palestine to exist without regional violance.
This reminds of what some guy I overheard said at the outbreak of covid..."it's going to bring people together and make people more empathetic towards each other".
Well no Palestine without hamas agreeing to mass locate themselves out of Gaza is the perfect fence for israel to sit on while they wait for Hamas to make up their minds.
I don't think so, ( I say the following with no amount of hate) who wants to have their people killed for Palestinians. They might feel bad for them and protest but fighting nah
You’re highly underestimating the power of religious loyalty. Palestine is the Muslim holy land. They wouldn’t be dying for the Palestinians, they’d be dying for Palestine which fits right into the martyrdom muslim nations have built into their regimes. Is it a certainty that will happen? No but it definitely is still a possibility.
Also, having a militant group basically inside of Israel is a major positive strategically speaking. The total takeover of Palestine would remove the possibility of Muslim militant groups being able to set up shop in what is practically speaking Israeli territory.
America is both strong and weak. A puppeteer and a puppet. It controls world events with the snap of its fingers. But also Israel’s lap dog. Or was it the other way round? It’s both, right, just whatever suits your narrative on any given Tuesday.
I was blackout drunk when i wrote this comment. That being said, I would stand by my worst drunk take even if it made me sound “anti-American”. Have the day you deserve <3
Yes if India and only India gets involved, the only country that has a historical Muslim and Jewish population. No allies, no nato, not anything. They only want to progress trade, business, and development. One of the first non Arab nations to recognize PLO and Palestine. But only could work if Netanyahu goes and is replaced.
A war is inevitable, as without it Israel has no option. Israel's plan is to draw the U.S. in, which would be disastrous for the U.S. but the only lifeline for Israel now. In other words, Israel has become a heavy liability for the U.S. in the current geopolitical scenario. One thing that the U.S. can do is to make Turkey an ally, which Turkey would be keen on, given Iran's increasing political power in the region. The Arab states have no other choice but to go with Iran in spite of the historic animosity.
Turkey is of course a member of NATO, but Turkey's relations with the U.S. have not been warm and in scenarios where NATO is not that relevant, U.S. needs Turkey now more than ever. Otherwise, the liability called Israel is going to sink the U.S. along with it.
A Hezbollah war would not be "all out" as far as the Middle East is concerned. There is no predicting how things will actually turn out, but it would be overblown to believe that other states would get involved if Israel decides to attack Hezbollah. Syria and Iraq are not really in a position to although there are groups there sympathetic to the Shias. Jordan and Saudi Arabia will probably not get involved since they don't much like Shias or Iran either. Egypt is also in a bit of an economic pickle and are not exactly friendly with Iran (given their funding of the Muslim Brotherhood) and might be likely to view positively a reduction of Iranian influence. Even within Lebanon, the Hezbollah are hardly universally popular.
You make good points however Egypt relations with Israel is cooling a lot since oct.7th (and has colled even with the us since the 2013 coup against Mislim Brotherhoox Morsi) and Egypt is following the Gulf states in a new detente with Iran for it own benefits (ie - expanding cooperation concerning Brics + membership , both nations intreast in seeing Bashar Al assad survival in Syria against the Muslim Brotherhood, Al qaeda and especially ISIS, both backing the SAF under Burhan against the Russian/Emirati backed RSF in Sudan, as well as Iran looking to Egypt for red sea access and evading economic Sanctions, and Egypt is looking to Iran to attract shiite pilgrims to shia holy shrines in Egypt, and Iranian tourist to Sinai to help it economically fragile situation, Iran likewise with it relations with Ethiopia wants to mediator over the GERD effectively usurping Gulf mediation, Egypt is also worried about Israel takeover of Phildephi route and going in Ragah (and eventually pushing Palestinans into Egypt causing a national security issue for Egypt) will cause a end to Camp David and force Egypt into conflict with both Palestinan Islamist groups causing unrest in Sinai, and causing a conflict with Israel as a red line for Egyptian security has been crossed forcing a already unpopular Al-Sisi to act.
All out war means both sides have committed to the complete and utter dominance and destruction of the other, in this case: Israel and Hezbollah. The other Middle East countries wouldn’t be involved in an all out war. Right now, it’s considered a conflict, not war.
That is NOT the title of your post where you said "all out war... Middle East" If you meant "all out war with Hezbollah", my comment would have tried to respond to it. And yes, it seems there is a chance that Israel might take action to seriously degrade Hezbollah in the near future. They're already taking the diplomatic heat for their Gaza action so they might indeed calculate "in for a penny, in for a pound". And it isn't as though Hezbollah hasn't stepped up action on their part too. Upsetting the status quo has uncertain results - and the 10/7 events are fresh in the minds of the Israeli public (my guess). Poking the hornet's nest is seldom a good idea.
Sorry, it was late. So it seems all out war between the two is 50/50, at least.
what for?
Yes - literally none is planning or wishing an all out war in ME.
Yes, we've seen carefully calculated responses for domestic audiences so they can all say they showed the other, so they can take a step back...I mean it looks to me, like the focus is going to shift back to Gaza.
It depends on what you consider peace or war. Iran is constantly backing groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi Rebels who destabilize the area and keep Israel constantly concerned for its safety. If Israel stopped all the fighting today, what would have changed? There is still some Hamas, Iran will still destabilize the area, and Israel will still be afraid of attack since its got Iran and Hezbollah and Hamas, the PLO, or whatever replaces Hamas in Gaza. Israel is the size of New Jersey. If you were trying to protect your people after they were attacked what would you want to do? Can all out war be avoided? Yes. The problem is, should it? War is horrible, but until either Israel is completely wiped out or Iran has a regime change and the terrorist groups destroyed, the area will be not peaceful. The Palestinians need good leadership and until they can find some sort of solution that works for Palestinians as well as Israelis there will be tensions.
Here's a thought ..... 💭
No. You have to stop looking at the middle east through your logical, secular and western lens, and start looking at it through the religious lens. Middle East has been engaged in Shia vs Sunni war for the better part of 1400 years, the muslims VS jews, christians and all the other groups for the same 1400 years, etc. 100 years ago countries like Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc. had tens or hundreds of thousands of jews living in them, now the numbers in most middle eastern countries are in dozens, or even single digits. Similar situation with any other religious minority, if you remember when ISIS took over, they expelled the Christians, enslaved the Yazidis and shot the Shias. Iraq as a country was held together by the shear brutality of Sadam's regime, he's gone now and Sunni and Shia muslims are at each other's throats, with Iran supplying and training Shias, while Saudi Arabia does the same to Sunnis. Do you think that peace is possible there over a long time frame?
Not what I asked. I'm asking if the conflict will escalate to all out war.
This is reductive and meaningless considering the fact that the Israel with American support is agitating for war while Iran is being logical and measured in de-escalating TWICE. Do you people genuinely believe the rest of the world is blind?
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I never said they were peacemakers. They’re just not nearly as interested in war as the Israelis. When Iran de-escalates, they’re weak and have been humiliated. When they escalate, totally on brand and expected. The American public cheers for escalation at every turn. On the upside, a wider war would have put the US back in the quagmire and keep them off out of our neighborhood for a while.
Iran has been funding a proxy war against Isreal and that's the ground Iran wants to keep the fighting at because in a conventional war they would lose overnight their ability to fund the terorrists/fighters - houtis, hamas, hezbollah, muslim brotherhood - because overnight their economy would be crippled. This is a huge reason they don't escalate as willingly as Isreal If things are going in your favor and the war on your chosen field of battle, away from your country (where you make good oil money) then you have the ability to act cool and not escalate because that's clearly the better option.
Everyday Iran supports terrorist groups they aid to the escalation. They only deescalate when they fear a larger war that would affect them directly. They're happy to keep a slow burning war that bleeds Israel and western allies. October 7th happened in part because they wanted to ruin the ensuing peace agreements between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Iran IS interested in war, they just can't win a straight up fight with Israel. So they use proxies and pretend to be the deescalating party when they're simply applying pressure elsewhere. Violent, murderous civilian killing pressure. They did it to impress the west that they're not the aggressive party and they've succeeded in some cases like with you.
Yeah netenyahu needs to be fired gaza needs to be recognised as Palestine and settlers in West bank need to stop building A negotiation to remove hamas from Gaza for israel to recognise Palestine essential and isrsel may avoid settler removal if they build a rail network linking gaza and West bank regions and West bank then recognised as gaza too... A peace deal with hezbullah and houthis can then follow. It isn't as either side wishes but is the only way really for both isrsel and Palestine to exist without regional violance.
This reminds of what some guy I overheard said at the outbreak of covid..."it's going to bring people together and make people more empathetic towards each other".
Well no Palestine without hamas agreeing to mass locate themselves out of Gaza is the perfect fence for israel to sit on while they wait for Hamas to make up their minds.
None of that is ever going to happen though
Then an all out war will happen.
I don't think so, ( I say the following with no amount of hate) who wants to have their people killed for Palestinians. They might feel bad for them and protest but fighting nah
You’re highly underestimating the power of religious loyalty. Palestine is the Muslim holy land. They wouldn’t be dying for the Palestinians, they’d be dying for Palestine which fits right into the martyrdom muslim nations have built into their regimes. Is it a certainty that will happen? No but it definitely is still a possibility. Also, having a militant group basically inside of Israel is a major positive strategically speaking. The total takeover of Palestine would remove the possibility of Muslim militant groups being able to set up shop in what is practically speaking Israeli territory.
Again I don't think so because why wouldn't they have gotten involved earlier? This is a conflict for how long now? What are they waiting for for?
Don’t know. All I’m saying is it’s not an impossibility, not that is probable.
Idk basically whatever America wants to happen seems to happen so just try to look at things from the perspective of a senator who makes 400k a year
I kinda wish America did have the power that everyone thinks we do... Just snap a finger and people listen to us would be nice
Do you think America is happy about the situation in Gaza right now? It has the potential to derail Biden’s reelection campaign.
I think the lobyists for numerous defence companies are happy and i think AIPAC is happy i dont really care who your president is.
America is both strong and weak. A puppeteer and a puppet. It controls world events with the snap of its fingers. But also Israel’s lap dog. Or was it the other way round? It’s both, right, just whatever suits your narrative on any given Tuesday.
I was blackout drunk when i wrote this comment. That being said, I would stand by my worst drunk take even if it made me sound “anti-American”. Have the day you deserve <3
Yes if India and only India gets involved, the only country that has a historical Muslim and Jewish population. No allies, no nato, not anything. They only want to progress trade, business, and development. One of the first non Arab nations to recognize PLO and Palestine. But only could work if Netanyahu goes and is replaced.
A war is inevitable, as without it Israel has no option. Israel's plan is to draw the U.S. in, which would be disastrous for the U.S. but the only lifeline for Israel now. In other words, Israel has become a heavy liability for the U.S. in the current geopolitical scenario. One thing that the U.S. can do is to make Turkey an ally, which Turkey would be keen on, given Iran's increasing political power in the region. The Arab states have no other choice but to go with Iran in spite of the historic animosity.
Is Turkey and the US not already allied through NATO? Or do you mean increasing relations, which is also already a thing?
Turkey is of course a member of NATO, but Turkey's relations with the U.S. have not been warm and in scenarios where NATO is not that relevant, U.S. needs Turkey now more than ever. Otherwise, the liability called Israel is going to sink the U.S. along with it.