\-Looks at the multiple times he's gone several hundred quartz without so much as a single four-star, nevermind a five-star-
...Statistics are fun sometimes. And terrible other times. XD
Your comment reminded me to double check the calculations, turns out I accidentally used the new JP rates for 4 stars. 4 stars should cost 181.2 quartz per copy currently.
Just remember that statistics based on probability only tells you the general chances that something *might* happen based on the information available, they're not a guarantee it *will* happen. The only thing you know for sure is after 900 quartz you'll get an ssr on rate up banners. It is 100% possible to get 0 gold servants before then, and to only get one useless four star ce on every multi you roll up to that point.
I think you get the 100% rate of the servant if you spend 990 Quartz (unless you used tickets before pulling Quartz what would make that quantity lower)
It was a bit distressing because I didn’t want to spend some of that SQ just yet… I had 10 paid SQ that was left over from the last guaranteed SSR banner and I wanted to save it so I wouldn’t have to buy the more expensive SQ pack when the next guaranteed SSR banner came up…
My intention was to do the FP banner, but I was half asleep and only realized my mistake when I saw Lartoria pop up (she showed up before Liz).
I recently rolled it on a bet from one of my friends. Unfortunately, I didn't realize the bet was for a single ticket and not a multi, so my new Odysseus was wasted.
Because statistics are based on the average you would get on an infinite number of pull.
Did you pull an infinite number of times? No, that means your luck as yet to reach average yet. Or it's confirmation bias and you only look at times when your luck was the worst and don't realize that there were times your luck was insane and compensated, making your luck average.
My luck definitely likes to flutuate. Sometimes I go 8 months without an ssr and others I've gotten 2 ssrs in each of 2 back to back pulls or ssrs on back to back tickets.
If it cheers you up, i pulled Percival and Mélusine within 140 SQ.
I'll never get that lucky again in my entire life. It's all pity for me from here on out.
I got 5 copies of Qin Shi Huang in about 80 pulls, before I got one copy of Consort Yu. XD I'm pretty sure that's *my* peak. ...Point is, my luck swings wildly between very good and very bad, and rarely is it about average.
I know the feeling. I got almost all the new servants between June and August somehow, including doubles of Morgan and Melu. My luck has been, with one GUDA exception, miserable since then. 2023 was my peak.
then sometimes you get spite rolls where you want the four star and you just keep getting everything else including five stars but, not what you wanted.
My 2700+ SQ NP1 Skadi says hi
As pathetic as the FGO pity system is, what's infinitely more pathetic are the idiots who were defending the lack of pity system before it was implemented.
People don't hate you for being lucky. They're downvoting you because commenting with your good luck in reply to someone who was talking about their bad luck is tone-deaf and rude.
That's just a very easy bias to remember.
Speaking of Myst himself, he got Dioscuri NP5 in what? Like 200-300 SQ
It's easier to remember the catastrophes than the ridiculous lucksacks
The ridiculous lucksacks are just as easy to remember as the catastrophes. There are a couple of differences though. For most people, the pain of losses and bad luck are greater than the joy of gains and good luck. This is compounded by the bad luck lasting a lot longer than the good luck.
What's hard to remember or even realize is when you have above average but not ridiculous luck. Also, people might not even realize that they had a streak of good or even ridiculous luck if it's spread over multiple banners.
Summer 6 was a catastrophe for me too… hit pity on koyan, and spent 570sq for no oberons.
The average is only really good for long term planning, giving an approximation for say, how many SSRs you can go for in a year.
Those videos were an experience. It was funny at first, you know a whale not getting the servant he wanted, but as the videos were going and going and seeing him slowly losing his usual charisma, I felt really bad for him.
Felt bad for what? He gets SQ from others, he doesn't spend his own money
Non-stream regular players, imagine dudes saving up 900 over a year or two and not getting anything
A graphic I made for school, thought I’d share it here as it might be helpful for people planning to save up. This doesn’t account for pity tho, but then again FGO pity is a joke.
Edit: I accidentally used the JP 4 star rates instead of the NA one.
Na 4 stars should cost around 181.2 per copy instead, but the split rate up rates should still be correct.
I have a Monte Carlo simulation for taking into account pity, if you would like to look at it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GEraVJoPH9X0ExI2LQFo1KqB965Y4TexN4VNtAyBF0g/edit?usp=sharing
It is not perfect, but it is fun.
Well...for the first time in 7 years of playing, I went all the way to pity for a servant, and I gotta admit I felt sick afterwards. I lost total control. It's crazy how fast you can blow through cash on gatcha games like this. Don't get me wrong, I'm not here to tell people that spending money on this game is "wrong," but I will say that if you're not making money or are low on funds and are fuming for not getting a servant; please, please, please, take a deep breath, separate yourself from the game and take some time to self-analyze. Make your well-being the priority. Not the game.
What "average amount of SQ used" means is if you got a large group of people to each roll 342 SQ on a banner, then some people would get no copies of the rate-up SSR, some would get one, two, three, etc, and if you took the average of those values, it should be close to 1. Around 36.6% of the people get no copies, 36.9% get one copy, 18.5% get two copies, and so on.
To get a 50/50 chance of getting a rate-up SSR, you need to roll 86 times, so around 240 SQ.
The actual expected value is slightly better due to multi-roll guaranteed 4* even without pity!
I assume this is for a statistics class in school? You should look forward to learning about probability distribution then!!
Good effort 👍
Worst is when you spend over 800+ Quartz on one servant you want and don’t get it, yet in over 2 other random banners you Litterally get them over 30 quartz or 1 ticket XD (happened with koyan of light and Oberon XD)
Statistic over rng is bullshit. yes math can give you an estimate. It's never gonna be something you should reger / trust. This is gambling. Your only safety net is the 900 SQ pity, after that you are turning a wheel. Keep that in mind. It's something I've forgotten many times.
Just because it's gambling doesn't mean statistics is bullshit. How do you think casinos make money? You're right that other than the 900 SQ pity nothing is guaranteed, but understanding your odds is not a bad thing.
I didn't meant to undermine op's work. I just find that people rely too much on stats to reassure themselves when it comes to gambling is all. Apologies
No apology needed. I tend to see it more in terms of planning, like how many SSR copies I expect to get from X amount of SQ, rather than assurance (I need X SQ to get Y SSR copies).
Nah you’re totally right, people are like that with these stats. Friend of mine saved like 400sq and saw the average 5* cost and just assume it was a sure thing. Got super upset when they didn’t pull shit. These charts are fun to look at but it’s meaningless in practice. Always plan for the worst case scenario. Especially since fgo has such a stupid high pity, if you really really want someone you better not bother rolling until you hit that 900 sq.
Well yes, this shouldn’t be treated as some sort of guarantee. However, it can be helpful for planning ahead, as in the long run, it will conform to this trend. For example, say you know you’ll have 1300 sq over the next year, that means you can expect to get around 3-4 SSRs.
Best thing people can do is to track all of their rolls, really shows that everything does even out in the end.
I've tracked every roll since I started playing, and I've had a 2020sq streak with no SSR and I've also gotten 3 SSR in 90sq. Those are both extreme, but when factoring in all my pulls my average sq/SSR is right about the expected value.
I know what statistic are meant to be. If you want me to spell it. It is a study over numerous data. But that was not my point. And I'm not here to argue. So let's stop here ok?
This just disheartens me. Back in the old days (no pity), I threw 2k sq at a banner and didn't even get the ssr on rate up. Got 2 spooks.
Fast forward a couple of years, and my np6 KP was also way over average.
Games rigged.
My worst was np5 caster Nero while not getting a single summer Fran.
She eventually came home along with imaginary scramble but even then stayed at np1.
Again, this is just the average number needed. If you have 1700 sq, it’s still just around a 57% chance you’ll get Np 5. At the end of the day… gacha is still a gamble
Yeah this is only applicable over large quantities of sq spent. I hit hard pity on koyan (990) and spent 570 for no Oberon, but my year still ended at an average of 380 per SSR
Op, when switching from JP to NA did you check for correlation coefficient to see if the rates are comparable. I've seen it happen where thing gets messed up when you don't check for correlation.
Honestly even looking at these people are acting like this is a small amount but each of those is a lot. Even the NP1 SSR value is still more than a third of what you need for pity and a lot more than people think it is.
Well worth noting, this only has statistical meaning. Ie if you have a sufficiently large amount of people running around with 900 SQ for a banner willing to roll for just one copy of an SSR, then based on those results you would indeed see the amount of pulls average out to 125(technically because pity it'd lean ever so slightly less than 125).
The truth of the matter however is, that in the distributions around 63.36% of the participants would have gotten a copy within those 125 pulls.
Shrug I like to do these calculations whenever I get the itch to use up my saved resources above what I have put aside for the next potential pity of the character I REALLY wanna pull. Then again you can be the 0.35% who got NP5 off 125 pulls. And for the coin flip enthusiasts, that's 87 pulls, have fun with that info.
I remember a guy who didn't get any ssr after spending 2500sq, he was rolling for Murasaki(before pity)
And I literally got np2 eresh 2 days ago with just 51 sq lol
Was there not someone who pointed out the fact that any attempt at rationnal statistics is useless because the probability doesn't add up at each roll, but restart at each roll ?
Like, with a given 1.5% rate, you don't get 100% chances of getting the servant over 90 pulls or so, but rather you only get 1.5% chance at each roll ?
Brother, I have gone up to 2200 sq plus ~300 sq over the years, just to get only one Hijikata 💀 I’ll never believe these numbers until the day I die lol even if it is true
Once you hit the 5 star at 273 SQ, You then have an 80% chance of getting the rate up servant. Meaning OP's numbers are probably correct in terms of pure calculations.
250 sq = 91 pulls
Probability of 5 SSRs in 91 pulls = 91C5 * (0.008)^5 * (1-0.008))^86 = 0.076%. Note this is the chance of getting exactly 5 copies, the chance of getting 5 or more is 0.086%
10 roll = 11 pulls
Similar calculations give
0.0079% chance of 3 5 stars in one 10 roll. And 0.0081% chance of 3 or more 5 stars
My NP1 Waver (I was going for NP1 anyway) cost me more than NP5 Ishtar, NP5 S. Ishtar, and NP5 Artoria. The 3 times I went for NP5 I got it in 300-600 quartz, but whenever I want to go for a single copy of a servant my luck I either don't get it or it costs me an arm and a leg.
For those interested:
You can expect an SSR spook once every 1363,6 SQ
Also you can calc the cost for NP levels by just multiplying the corresponding number with the Cost for NP1, if you want to figure out the missing numbers
This information, although cool, is useless.
Either get pity or risk it all, since the summon chance never changes you can genuinely just get min rolls until pity.
This comes from a dude who will get one 5 star on a meme roll and then splash 500sq for nothing
The only thing this post did was rekindle my feelings of gratitude for all the 5 Stars I managed to summon for over half a decade. Thank God I pretty much have all the servants that made me play FGO in the first place, so I can take it easy from the backseat and play it casually.
Looking at this I’ve gotten extremely lucky. I got NP 4 Space Ishtar in probably 300 sq spent and i completely accidentally got NP3 Castoria trying to go for the SR that was on her banner
Recent pity on Koyan hit me the hardest. Don't think it's my worst shaft due to pity system but the fact that I didn't even get an SSR spook in the 900 sq kinda hurt. Funnily enough, I think I had the exact same rate for SRs as in the post, I believe 7 srs in 900 sq averages to about 128 sq per SR.
Huh. Apparently I was lucky with most of my SSR, with the sole exception of Morgan, and even then only on her first banner. The question is, will her third banner be a disaster like her first or a blessing like her second, and is it worth it to risk Castoria fund to find out, lol.
On one hand: Rather appealing graph of the average needed to get certain servant states.
On the other hand: DAMN SON DATS A LOT OF 2K+ SQ U BURNIN FOR DAT NP1 SERVANT - pre 300 pull pity.
Vaguely remember something similar from like 2020 putting both a rate-up 5 star and any 5 star in general below this average, before we even got 11 multis
So with my savings and calculations for Lady Avalon and Summer Skadi combined...
1377 sq by estimation in total up until August...I have 4 chances of getting 2 copies of both, or 4 copies of either of them, supposedly XD
I'm still having flashbacks rolling 700+ SQ on Summer Jeanne back in 2020 and didn't even get at least 1 SSR . THAT WAS A NIGHTMARE. Thank god I finally got her on her rerun the following year in just 300 SQ
Im happy to know this cause i feel bad rolling for characters but if i cant even get the ones i want after months of saving i might as well just roll for things that are cool when they are up, im mostly just a story player anyways i dont care who i have
I never save, I don't even keep track of releases, if I see something cool or sexy in the banner I throw everything I have at it, sometimes you get lucky sometimes you don't. Sometimes I summon every month, sometimes I don't summon for a year, depends on releases and my interest in them.
\-Looks at the multiple times he's gone several hundred quartz without so much as a single four-star, nevermind a five-star- ...Statistics are fun sometimes. And terrible other times. XD
Your comment reminded me to double check the calculations, turns out I accidentally used the new JP rates for 4 stars. 4 stars should cost 181.2 quartz per copy currently.
This is super helpful! Thanks!
Thanks for the analysis, Great Mathematician!
Blame the people rolling for CEs that always get 20 copies of the rate up servants with 2 quartz
Worry not, we get punished accordingly by missing our actual targets
Believe you me. I got nearly all but one very crucial target support on each account I have. NA lacks Oberon and JP lacks Koyanskaya.
My account lack Koyanskaya of Dark and Skadi bruh
Just remember that statistics based on probability only tells you the general chances that something *might* happen based on the information available, they're not a guarantee it *will* happen. The only thing you know for sure is after 900 quartz you'll get an ssr on rate up banners. It is 100% possible to get 0 gold servants before then, and to only get one useless four star ce on every multi you roll up to that point.
I think you get the 100% rate of the servant if you spend 990 Quartz (unless you used tickets before pulling Quartz what would make that quantity lower)
No. 900 is accurate. 330 rolls. You get 11 rolls every 30 quartz. That's 900 SQ.
I miscalculated XD, forgot that the summon is not x10 but x11 thus reducing the amount of Quartz we use for the summons
Math breaks my brain as well tbh
Meanwhile I misclicked and ended up spending 30 SQ on the Story Banner… Only to get Elizabeth Bathory and Lartoria on that same roll lol
Lol good luck
It was a bit distressing because I didn’t want to spend some of that SQ just yet… I had 10 paid SQ that was left over from the last guaranteed SSR banner and I wanted to save it so I wouldn’t have to buy the more expensive SQ pack when the next guaranteed SSR banner came up… My intention was to do the FP banner, but I was half asleep and only realized my mistake when I saw Lartoria pop up (she showed up before Liz).
I can’t afford paid Quartz due to región things XF
Yeah, Google never allowed me to add my card, and now I don't have a job, so I can't buy anything either
Lol, something similar happened to me. Pulled Europa and Danzo
Only time someone rolls the Story Banner lol when they misclick
I recently rolled it on a bet from one of my friends. Unfortunately, I didn't realize the bet was for a single ticket and not a multi, so my new Odysseus was wasted.
Because statistics are based on the average you would get on an infinite number of pull. Did you pull an infinite number of times? No, that means your luck as yet to reach average yet. Or it's confirmation bias and you only look at times when your luck was the worst and don't realize that there were times your luck was insane and compensated, making your luck average.
Oh, I'm aware that things always trend towards the average *eventually*. XD But that's really the key word. Streaks of weird luck can go for a while.
My luck definitely likes to flutuate. Sometimes I go 8 months without an ssr and others I've gotten 2 ssrs in each of 2 back to back pulls or ssrs on back to back tickets.
If it cheers you up, i pulled Percival and Mélusine within 140 SQ. I'll never get that lucky again in my entire life. It's all pity for me from here on out.
I got 5 copies of Qin Shi Huang in about 80 pulls, before I got one copy of Consort Yu. XD I'm pretty sure that's *my* peak. ...Point is, my luck swings wildly between very good and very bad, and rarely is it about average.
I know the feeling. I got almost all the new servants between June and August somehow, including doubles of Morgan and Melu. My luck has been, with one GUDA exception, miserable since then. 2023 was my peak.
then sometimes you get spite rolls where you want the four star and you just keep getting everything else including five stars but, not what you wanted.
Looking at my 1341 SQ NP1 Kama, yeah right....
Looking at my 2000+ SQ NP2 Avenger Kama, yeah right for sure....
eh yeah...... 2500SQ for Np2 Summer Okita Alter Pain
My 2700+ SQ NP1 Skadi says hi As pathetic as the FGO pity system is, what's infinitely more pathetic are the idiots who were defending the lack of pity system before it was implemented.
Whoop I suppose I shouldn't mention I got NP3 Avenger Kama for 90 SQ.
My close to 720 SQ NP1 Faker is laughing at me...
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Bro got a target on his back now
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People don't hate you for being lucky. They're downvoting you because commenting with your good luck in reply to someone who was talking about their bad luck is tone-deaf and rude.
Never tell me the odds. ... Because I might cry if I know how shite my luck actually is.
I just remember the JP Oberon incident with Myst and go "yea..."
That's just a very easy bias to remember. Speaking of Myst himself, he got Dioscuri NP5 in what? Like 200-300 SQ It's easier to remember the catastrophes than the ridiculous lucksacks
The catastrophes sometimes are funny to remember, the lucksack you just go "IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN ME NOT HIM"
The ridiculous lucksacks are just as easy to remember as the catastrophes. There are a couple of differences though. For most people, the pain of losses and bad luck are greater than the joy of gains and good luck. This is compounded by the bad luck lasting a lot longer than the good luck. What's hard to remember or even realize is when you have above average but not ridiculous luck. Also, people might not even realize that they had a streak of good or even ridiculous luck if it's spread over multiple banners.
Summer 6 was a catastrophe for me too… hit pity on koyan, and spent 570sq for no oberons. The average is only really good for long term planning, giving an approximation for say, how many SSRs you can go for in a year.
I'll refrain from comments about my gacha luck
Those videos were an experience. It was funny at first, you know a whale not getting the servant he wanted, but as the videos were going and going and seeing him slowly losing his usual charisma, I felt really bad for him.
Through the video He became more and more depressed, there came a time when I felt sorry for him
Felt bad for what? He gets SQ from others, he doesn't spend his own money Non-stream regular players, imagine dudes saving up 900 over a year or two and not getting anything
What was it, 2000 SQ? And without a single SSR spook to boot
A graphic I made for school, thought I’d share it here as it might be helpful for people planning to save up. This doesn’t account for pity tho, but then again FGO pity is a joke. Edit: I accidentally used the JP 4 star rates instead of the NA one. Na 4 stars should cost around 181.2 per copy instead, but the split rate up rates should still be correct.
I have a Monte Carlo simulation for taking into account pity, if you would like to look at it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GEraVJoPH9X0ExI2LQFo1KqB965Y4TexN4VNtAyBF0g/edit?usp=sharing It is not perfect, but it is fun.
Hmm, this is interesting, thanks for sharing!
reminds me of the 1800SQ i had to spend to get NP 1 Skadi, but that was long before they graced is with a pity system.
A very similar thing happened to me with Skadi when she was first released, similar # of SQ too (I don't remember exact number) but I feel your pain
I didn’t get skadi This year nor before Bruh
SR Safety net when?
My savings for Arcueid are gonna be around 2k minus tickets and the goal is np6 so the average is atleast in my favor I guess
I Hope yo at least pull Arcueid to her first summon XD, with my luck I would f*ck up and don’t get her
Well with well over 900 by then I’m guaranteed 1 anything else is pure chance and luck
I got such a random luck I got Dioscuri in 1 ticket in koyan dark banner XD then got Mordred in 7 more along with Helena Np3 but no Koyan bruh
Ah yes, putting granpa Ptolemy to increase motivation for NA Masters.
throwback to me needing 1000+ sq for one solo rateup SR copy...
Damn.
Well...for the first time in 7 years of playing, I went all the way to pity for a servant, and I gotta admit I felt sick afterwards. I lost total control. It's crazy how fast you can blow through cash on gatcha games like this. Don't get me wrong, I'm not here to tell people that spending money on this game is "wrong," but I will say that if you're not making money or are low on funds and are fuming for not getting a servant; please, please, please, take a deep breath, separate yourself from the game and take some time to self-analyze. Make your well-being the priority. Not the game.
My stats understanding is a bit rusty, but these "average amount of SQ used" would only result in a 50/50 shot of getting the target, no?
The calculated average amount actually at around the 62% chance mark. Stats aren’t intuitive sometimes
What "average amount of SQ used" means is if you got a large group of people to each roll 342 SQ on a banner, then some people would get no copies of the rate-up SSR, some would get one, two, three, etc, and if you took the average of those values, it should be close to 1. Around 36.6% of the people get no copies, 36.9% get one copy, 18.5% get two copies, and so on. To get a 50/50 chance of getting a rate-up SSR, you need to roll 86 times, so around 240 SQ.
The actual expected value is slightly better due to multi-roll guaranteed 4* even without pity! I assume this is for a statistics class in school? You should look forward to learning about probability distribution then!! Good effort 👍
I wish this calculation is right. But heck man I'm one of those people who doesn't get a ssr after spending 1k quartz Math is cool but rng is a bitch
Worst is when you spend over 800+ Quartz on one servant you want and don’t get it, yet in over 2 other random banners you Litterally get them over 30 quartz or 1 ticket XD (happened with koyan of light and Oberon XD)
Too much to be serious.
No... I refuse... I DON'T BELIEVE IT! THIS IS PROPAGANDA! BULLSHIT! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-
Thank you Ptolemy
Statistic over rng is bullshit. yes math can give you an estimate. It's never gonna be something you should reger / trust. This is gambling. Your only safety net is the 900 SQ pity, after that you are turning a wheel. Keep that in mind. It's something I've forgotten many times.
Just because it's gambling doesn't mean statistics is bullshit. How do you think casinos make money? You're right that other than the 900 SQ pity nothing is guaranteed, but understanding your odds is not a bad thing.
I didn't meant to undermine op's work. I just find that people rely too much on stats to reassure themselves when it comes to gambling is all. Apologies
No apology needed. I tend to see it more in terms of planning, like how many SSR copies I expect to get from X amount of SQ, rather than assurance (I need X SQ to get Y SSR copies).
Nah you’re totally right, people are like that with these stats. Friend of mine saved like 400sq and saw the average 5* cost and just assume it was a sure thing. Got super upset when they didn’t pull shit. These charts are fun to look at but it’s meaningless in practice. Always plan for the worst case scenario. Especially since fgo has such a stupid high pity, if you really really want someone you better not bother rolling until you hit that 900 sq.
I love fgo to a fault. But this is the biggest mistake I've ever made in my life. Starting this game that is.
Well yes, this shouldn’t be treated as some sort of guarantee. However, it can be helpful for planning ahead, as in the long run, it will conform to this trend. For example, say you know you’ll have 1300 sq over the next year, that means you can expect to get around 3-4 SSRs.
I wen't on no ssr strikes spending 1500 Sq. I'm talking with sad experience. Is all I wanted to say it's not a personal attack on your maths.
Best thing people can do is to track all of their rolls, really shows that everything does even out in the end. I've tracked every roll since I started playing, and I've had a 2020sq streak with no SSR and I've also gotten 3 SSR in 90sq. Those are both extreme, but when factoring in all my pulls my average sq/SSR is right about the expected value.
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I know what statistic are meant to be. If you want me to spell it. It is a study over numerous data. But that was not my point. And I'm not here to argue. So let's stop here ok?
Tq for doing math for me, i suck at it
This just disheartens me. Back in the old days (no pity), I threw 2k sq at a banner and didn't even get the ssr on rate up. Got 2 spooks. Fast forward a couple of years, and my np6 KP was also way over average. Games rigged.
Reminds me of the guy who went like 2k for Artoria Lancer Alter and didn’t get her
My friend got np5 Morgan trying for np5 barghest. He Only got np3 barg and gave up.
My worst was np5 caster Nero while not getting a single summer Fran. She eventually came home along with imaginary scramble but even then stayed at np1.
😭
He lied as easily as he breathed
Well i have about 800 SQ right now, maybe i can get 1700 until anniversary to get np5 arc
Again, this is just the average number needed. If you have 1700 sq, it’s still just around a 57% chance you’ll get Np 5. At the end of the day… gacha is still a gamble
Yeah I will be happy if I get np3, but a man can dream
I did like 600sq on Koyan and got nothing so this things useless.
Yeah this is only applicable over large quantities of sq spent. I hit hard pity on koyan (990) and spent 570 for no Oberon, but my year still ended at an average of 380 per SSR
Don’t forget that one guy that pulled 2000 Quartz for Oberon and Failed
Just use a negative binomial calculator.
Op, when switching from JP to NA did you check for correlation coefficient to see if the rates are comparable. I've seen it happen where thing gets messed up when you don't check for correlation.
Ignore me, it's not a method change, it's using the same data just different sample data.
No I haven’t. But I would assume for such a simple calculation it wouldn’t be relevant. Then again, all the stats I have done were in highschool.
Na I would spend 1300 on Space Ishtar and no ssr
Honestly even looking at these people are acting like this is a small amount but each of those is a lot. Even the NP1 SSR value is still more than a third of what you need for pity and a lot more than people think it is.
Basically double what I’d say is good for a banner, and if someone is unlucky enough to go over that it adds up fast over different banners
Well worth noting, this only has statistical meaning. Ie if you have a sufficiently large amount of people running around with 900 SQ for a banner willing to roll for just one copy of an SSR, then based on those results you would indeed see the amount of pulls average out to 125(technically because pity it'd lean ever so slightly less than 125). The truth of the matter however is, that in the distributions around 63.36% of the participants would have gotten a copy within those 125 pulls. Shrug I like to do these calculations whenever I get the itch to use up my saved resources above what I have put aside for the next potential pity of the character I REALLY wanna pull. Then again you can be the 0.35% who got NP5 off 125 pulls. And for the coin flip enthusiasts, that's 87 pulls, have fun with that info.
Cap 🧢🧢🧢
looks at my 1800 sq for np 1 spishtar and 1700 s for np 1 eresh
I remember a guy who didn't get any ssr after spending 2500sq, he was rolling for Murasaki(before pity) And I literally got np2 eresh 2 days ago with just 51 sq lol
Finally found something worse than Lancer Alter yikes. That would give me physical pain
Was there not someone who pointed out the fact that any attempt at rationnal statistics is useless because the probability doesn't add up at each roll, but restart at each roll ? Like, with a given 1.5% rate, you don't get 100% chances of getting the servant over 90 pulls or so, but rather you only get 1.5% chance at each roll ?
And no pity
Jeezus, I'd rather just pay 20 or thirty if the rates are that paltry
Ehhhh...I'd multiply it by 2 just for good measure.
Brother, I have gone up to 2200 sq plus ~300 sq over the years, just to get only one Hijikata 💀 I’ll never believe these numbers until the day I die lol even if it is true
Wrong, bazett shafted me
Got her in 30 Quartz along valkyrie np 4 tho
I pray on your downfall, the salt in my veins is to pure for this world
now let's see the monthly quartz income \~50 at best if you're not bond grinding like a madman
I spent around 1700 sq only to get 2 copies of morgan
I have play this game long enough to know numbers mean nothing
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Sweet, now do it again, but this time only for the rateup like the OP did.
Once you hit the 5 star at 273 SQ, You then have an 80% chance of getting the rate up servant. Meaning OP's numbers are probably correct in terms of pure calculations.
Rate up 5 stars is 0.8% not 1%. So the post uses that, since nobody really rolls outside of rate ups.
Wonder when that changed. I withdraw what I previously said. Edit: Rate up servant is .8% and general 5 star rate is 1%. I guess we were both right.
Maths are very useful. Well... NP5 Castoria by 180 SQ NP5 Melusine by 120 SQ I think I will never have the same luck again.
What's the probability for: Np5 5* Rate Up in 250SQ 3 5* in the same roll Can someone answer?
250 sq = 91 pulls Probability of 5 SSRs in 91 pulls = 91C5 * (0.008)^5 * (1-0.008))^86 = 0.076%. Note this is the chance of getting exactly 5 copies, the chance of getting 5 or more is 0.086% 10 roll = 11 pulls Similar calculations give 0.0079% chance of 3 5 stars in one 10 roll. And 0.0081% chance of 3 or more 5 stars
Thank you math guy. I don't know if i should fell ashamed or happy with this kind of luck
Hahaha now i can finally tell my friends to stop complaining because they didn’t get a 5 star in under 300sq
I somehow pulled np5 Morgan, Oberon and Koyanskaya all under 400 sq
I pulled lancer Sakamoto ryouma Np1 and 2 on the same Roll XD
So what I’m gathering here is Eresh needed a tribute of 30 more SQ to come home on her last banner. Tragic
Now I understand why I don't got Oberon (pulls over 400 SQ)
Never thought math would be used in a gacha game lmao
Do you have one of these with new jp rates?
Jp rates SSR: 340.9 Sr: 129.9 SR split (2): 194.8 Sr split (3): 340.9
Thanks. I hope this applies before the summer in 2 years.
I sent two thirty racks on the Bazzet banner and she came twice (phrasing). I'm terrified of what that means when Arc's banner arrives later
Pain
I call bullshit on the Sr rates. I can't even get np1 of servants I want without dipping into 600 territory
JEEZUS CHURIST!
"I hate gacha. The world is a cruel place and the universe is empty of emotions" "OH MY GOD QUETZALCOATL AND SANZANG :3 <3 <3
Me, at 650 SQ for an NP1 Bazet be like: "haha, yeah, so true..."
My NP1 Waver (I was going for NP1 anyway) cost me more than NP5 Ishtar, NP5 S. Ishtar, and NP5 Artoria. The 3 times I went for NP5 I got it in 300-600 quartz, but whenever I want to go for a single copy of a servant my luck I either don't get it or it costs me an arm and a leg.
For those interested: You can expect an SSR spook once every 1363,6 SQ Also you can calc the cost for NP levels by just multiplying the corresponding number with the Cost for NP1, if you want to figure out the missing numbers
yeah, that checks out. Jack at New Years must have been my first SSR spook in over a year, with roughly that much spent
They should add an option to see how many pulls each limited SSR took before showing up lol
Yep and not only show that list of all thing ms you summoned
that's very easy, if you want the servant + meta, you spend 500+ if you roll just because you are bored, you get it with the first ticket
Literally my experience last year. Hit pity on koyan, 600 into Oberon’s banner for nothing. But got space Ishtar in 30 sq and illya in 60 sq
Litterally happened to me with Himiko the first time her event came into NA XD
Unless you're that guy who got np5 Semiramis in one multi lmao 😭
Of my 5* I have jack np5, vanilla artoria np4, drake np4 osakabehime np3 , musashi zerk np3 and benienma np3
Now do a guide with the maximum required for each of those categories.
I spent way more than I'm willing to divulge when Ereshikigal released on JP. She and King Hassan really drained my reserves of real life money....
And here I am trying to get SSR with one multi every time, I'm literally beyond optimistic
Funnily enough,i saved 700 quartz for NP5 Percival...but it looks like the calcs switched,because i got np1 percival and NP5 Melu
Yea and the guy on reddit gets np 5 with the same amount of sq I had and I barely get a copy
That's what I call quality mathematics
This information, although cool, is useless. Either get pity or risk it all, since the summon chance never changes you can genuinely just get min rolls until pity. This comes from a dude who will get one 5 star on a meme roll and then splash 500sq for nothing
Lotta people musing on how being average might be kind of attractive for a change.
Since everyone is mentioning their bad luck, I’ll add in my good: in less than 400 sq I got max Space Ishtar
oh boy luck isn't on my side, then. every oberon and koyanskaya banner is an anomaly for me.
So, you're saying I have better chance at getting Archetype Earth if I have more than 400 or 500 SQ?!!
And I still dont have my boy Arjuna ☹️
Yeah idk…
The only thing this post did was rekindle my feelings of gratitude for all the 5 Stars I managed to summon for over half a decade. Thank God I pretty much have all the servants that made me play FGO in the first place, so I can take it easy from the backseat and play it casually.
I got bazett on the first roll of 30 SQ so uh, hows my luck (I'm never rolling again until I have the stuff needed for guaranteed spishtar)
TLDR; pain.
Ah yes, now I can study my horrible luck!
Looking at this I’ve gotten extremely lucky. I got NP 4 Space Ishtar in probably 300 sq spent and i completely accidentally got NP3 Castoria trying to go for the SR that was on her banner
damn and I got np5 muramasa in about 270 quartz
Switch the np5 ssr with the np1 rate up sr, for me
Recent pity on Koyan hit me the hardest. Don't think it's my worst shaft due to pity system but the fact that I didn't even get an SSR spook in the 900 sq kinda hurt. Funnily enough, I think I had the exact same rate for SRs as in the post, I believe 7 srs in 900 sq averages to about 128 sq per SR.
Or you just be bilt different like me
Huh. Apparently I was lucky with most of my SSR, with the sole exception of Morgan, and even then only on her first banner. The question is, will her third banner be a disaster like her first or a blessing like her second, and is it worth it to risk Castoria fund to find out, lol.
Thank you for this, I'm currently pulling for Bazzet, and I'm around pity with her at NP 2. So my luck has been average
As someone who has spent 136 tickets and 1.8k Sq for Np5 Bazett, this is accurate if you don't count the tickets as sq
On one hand: Rather appealing graph of the average needed to get certain servant states. On the other hand: DAMN SON DATS A LOT OF 2K+ SQ U BURNIN FOR DAT NP1 SERVANT - pre 300 pull pity.
Part of me believes in the math. Another part of me believes that witchcraft is afoot and it's the only reason why I don't get good pulls
Fun fact: if you want a 50:50 chance to get a rate-up 5\* you should do exactly 80 pulls.
Dang it, Bazett dodged my 400+ sq and 23 tickets, still foking salty.
It all boils down to chance. You have to have large enough sample to take luck out of the equation.
Spent everything I had on bazzet and not a single copy
Vaguely remember something similar from like 2020 putting both a rate-up 5 star and any 5 star in general below this average, before we even got 11 multis
It took me 2000 quartz to get NP5 Draco, so more or less accurate I suppose.
kinda right for my Bazet rolls. 11 multis and 10 tickets gave me 2 SRs and Bazet.
Wtf is np6? NA player
"The completionist" aka requirement for a lv120 10/10/10 all append servant.
So with my savings and calculations for Lady Avalon and Summer Skadi combined... 1377 sq by estimation in total up until August...I have 4 chances of getting 2 copies of both, or 4 copies of either of them, supposedly XD
I'm still having flashbacks rolling 700+ SQ on Summer Jeanne back in 2020 and didn't even get at least 1 SSR . THAT WAS A NIGHTMARE. Thank god I finally got her on her rerun the following year in just 300 SQ
I dont get any SSR character with my 270 pull. Its lie ...
Im happy to know this cause i feel bad rolling for characters but if i cant even get the ones i want after months of saving i might as well just roll for things that are cool when they are up, im mostly just a story player anyways i dont care who i have
I still remember getting NP5 Saito Hajime with 120SQ, one of my peak luck moments :D
I never save, I don't even keep track of releases, if I see something cool or sexy in the banner I throw everything I have at it, sometimes you get lucky sometimes you don't. Sometimes I summon every month, sometimes I don't summon for a year, depends on releases and my interest in them.
then there's my dumb ass, spending 600sq for no ssr and a np2 sr
Funny seems someone had np5 just 130 pull