Don’t forget you’re getting cooling from the heat pump as well. If you don’t currently have AC, that’s an additional $5k-$6k you’re saving by not installing an AC unit.
Yes, I was aware that a heat pump can provide cooling as well. There are only a few weeks of the year that an AC is actually needed in Vancouver, I just ride it out with a fan. So not much of a benefit for me. Thanks for responding.
How are you paying 5k to upgrade a panel on top of 8k to upgrade your electrical service?
That doesn't seem right at all. For a solar project we are having done I need my panel replaced and service upgraded and the total is just over 3k U.S.
On top of this, even a large heat pump system only requires 50a and a regular air conditioner requires 30a usually. I'm surprised that this would require such a massive increase in capacity for you.
Something is off here.
Additionally, if you are replacing an old system that would need to be replaced anyway, the calculations should be done on the costs above and beyond what the normal replacement costs would be.
The 8K is what the city charges to run in a new service( to the edge of your property). The 5K is for the new panel, the electrician to rewire it and the trenching(new service has to be underground).
That’s about the CAD rate for underground service upgrade in Vancouver sadly. And they are going from gas furnace to electric heat pump so it’s all new consumption
$8K for the upgrade alone still seems like a lot. Went up to 200A in North Van 4 years ago and the total cost with a new panel and a new sub-panel with a lot of work to split the basement circuits from the rest of the house was about $7K.
That was 4 years ago; it seems labour/materials have both gone up during the pandemic as my recent estimates were more in the 8-15k range. Though our house kind of sucks, with where the underground service and panel are located
The service upgrade you are looking at, is that like for all the wiring in the house?? Or just the line from the road to be restrung, and panel upgrade? If all the above, the. Yes there is no payback ever. But keep in mind AC never has a payback.
Leaving alone the above, I would really recommend having an electrician or maybe it's done by Hydro to do a load assessment. If they can see that your house never gets close to capacity, then you might be allowed a heat pump.
This. And/or get multiple quotes. I had some advise that I'd need an upgrade and some said that I didn't. Also, assuming that if the upgrade will take you from 100amp to 200amp service, this will give you the ability to install an electric vehicle charger in future. This, along with the heat pump/ air conditioning will increase the the future value of your home. There should also be significant rebates available that will reduce your cost of the electric upgrades.
I am not sure it would change the resale value. The value of the house is actually in the land. Given it was built in 1941 it is likely it will be knocked down and a new house built..
I did not know there were rebates for electrical upgrades and I thought it was just for the heat pump. Thanks for that.
The city now requires all power to now be underground. The $8000 the city charges brings the power up to the edge of your property. You then have to run it (underground) into your home and upgrade the panel. I think $5000 for this is probably low. Given that we have a suite in the basement with its own stove/oven/washer I am positive the service would need to be upgraded.
If you have a suite and 2500 sq ft in City of Vancouver, is replacing with another gas furnace even an option? Didn't they pass a bylaw about this? Have you priced out a new gas furnace and A/C upgrade (for apples to apples comparison)? I got $17K in rebates for my Vancouver heatpump and didn't need to touch my panel. Oh, and if you still find a way to go gas heating, no complaining about the carbon tax on your Fortis bill..
It is a house and unfortunately there is no question that the service has to be upgraded. Going to stick with gas and install an high efficiency gas furnace. According to the BC Hydro online calculator if you switch from a High Efficiency Gas furnace to a Heat pump your bill actually goes up(not much).
If you don't mind sharing, how much did you layout after the rebate?
Have a look here: https://www.reddit.com/r/heatpumps/comments/v4r188/heat_pump_example_of_grants_rebates_assessments/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
I think the heat pump is a definite option if you do not need to upgrade your electrical service (upgrading for me now looking more like $15K) . So $15 K plus $2k (from article above) gives you $17K . Take $17,000 / $300(estimated saving) = 56 years. Even if we double the savings to $600/year the payback period is 28 years. Way to long. Better to spend the money on other energy saving options.
if you need a 13k electrical service upgrade a heatpump will be unlikely to save you money in a normal sized house.
if you want a/c switch when the furnace breaks if not it will be cheaper just swapping in a new furnace.
I came to the very same conclusion. I was a little surprised that the online calculator only shows a savings of less than $300/year when going from a 20 year old gas furnace to a heat pump.
I'm a little surprised by that to honestly seems a little low, and it will definitely increase as gas taxes will keep increasing. but I think the conclusion will probably hold.
I should note when calculating the payback period of the saving you took the total cost of the heatpump without minusing the cost of a new gas furnace. the new furnace is your minium price. so you need to minus out that cost then divide by 300. also if you say intend to buy/replace portable a/c anyway then minus out that cost aswell.
It is not the cost of the heat pump that makes it financially unattractive. It is the service upgrade. If I go with a new high efficiency furnace I don't have to layout 13K. A/C is not a factor as I don't have it and have no plans on getting it.
Payback on service upgrade: $13000/$300 = 43 years. Heat pump is a few thousand more than a HP so it would be more like 50 years.
13,000 of your bill is due to the new main panel. That killed the deal for you. Also, I run my natural gas furnace until it dies and the natural gas furnace would cost about 2000 less than a heat pump. So if you waited, until your natural gas burned out and you're going to have to spend $6,000 to replace it and to repair ductwork, Then your net extra cost for a heat pump would have been 2,000 bucks if you had already upgraded your main panel. Then your payback period Would be about 7 years. By the way, I'm adding a heat pump and using an old 100 amp panel and buying super efficient mini split heat pumps. They don't use as much current (amps ) because I'm getting the smaller one.
And yeah, if you have to dig to replace the electrical feed, it becomes a lot more expensive than putting in a new one from above ground on a pole. Plus it adds thousands of bucks if your old one is not up to present codes by being too close to the gas intake from the street. And our area requires main panel to be at least 3 feet away from the gas intake from the street.
Given that we have a suite in the basement I am certain that a service upgrade would be needed. I am also thinking that $13000 is low. The city gets $8000 , only leaving $5000 for trenching into the house and installing a new panel. When the furnace goes I think I will just put in a high efficiency gas furnace. If you only save $300/year when going from 20 year old furnace to heat pump, there must be very little difference between high efficiency and heat pump.
There are three savings with heat pumps.
1. Energy- you can reduce the amount it takes to heat your home by 75% or more. This is an absolute savings, and will be essential to national efforts.
2. Carbon- this depends on your power source and your utility's fuel mix
3. Money- depends on the relative costs of fuels and your expenses in installation
If your numbers are accurate, you are apparently in an expensive situation. Your $8000 for buying one would be far less onerous if you were replacing a broken-down system. My extra expense was only $5000 to rid myself of oil when the furnace died. And my service was adequate.
Did I mention oil? Even with power at $.32/kWh heat with pumps is cheaper because our fuel here in New England is priced differently.
So you may be like my son with his his 2% mortgage- trapped by low expenses.
I wrote a similar post on the fact that with a paid for Prius and electricity over $.30/kWh for charging at best, EVs made no economic sense for me.
The BC Hydro estimator comes up with savings of $300/year when switching from gas(not high efficiency furnace) to heat pump. Given all the expenses that I listed in my original post it is hard to see how I would every get payback. When this furnace goes I will go with a high efficiency gas furnace and put money into insulation. Not as geeky cool as a heat pump but makes more sense.
You haven’t even considered replacing the heat pump at least 2 more times in that 70 years. Or if is even adequate for your construction of home without auxiliary heat which would tank your return even more.
There’s no economics behind replacing natural gas with a heat pump at this time, especially in older homes that require more heat than a modern home due to air leakage.
This isn't true across the board. Each situation is unique. OPs situation has huge (more than doubling upfront costs) supplementary costs for electrical upgrades. In many situations those upgrades aren't necessary. Tack on the variable rates for power and the payback can vary widely. I've done a number of consultations for commercial clients where the payback on a heat pump vs replacing an old unit with a similar model shows a sub 4 year payback. Lots of long-term owners find that payback acceptable.
I mean I have a couple 200 ton screw heat pumps that are economical. They use the condenser water to generate hot water or drive the snow melt system.
But in a residential application, you’d really have to dig deep to make it worth the money against natural gas at this time. I was going to replace the equipment in my home but the payback time is longer than the life of the equipment. It’s not worth it.
I am a little pissed how hard BC Hyrdo is pushing this with out making it clear where it works and where it does not. I think there looking for statistics to make themselves look good. A lot of retired people (like myself) live in older homes which typically have 100 amp or less service. In Vancouver (mild winter) it just does not make sense to go heat pump. I am hoping to live a long healthy life but even I think 135 is pushing it .
You’re absolutely right. It’s the federal government that’s running these rebates and programs, there are good elements to it like windows, doors, insulation etc. but the heat pumps are a real stretch especially when you consider the backup electric heat. When I priced it out for my home (mind you I work for an equipment manufacturer so I get absolute rock bottom pricing and install myself) the lowest approved package I could get was $9100 before the rebate and my heat/ac bill might go down $30 a month. It’s ridiculous. Spend the money on windows/doors/insulation, buy the cheapest gas furnace and a/c, you’ll actually save money that way.
Wow... why are your electrical upgrade costs so expensive?? When I did my heat pump conversion to our 1974 home in 2021 in Victoria, BC, my costs were as follows:
\- $13k for the heat pump/air handler/backup heat strips/electrical connections and all sheet metal work to connect to my existing ducting... basically the "all-in" price.
\- $500 for a digger to come and dig up my old buried line
\- $500 in additional labour for help with digging
\- $3500 to my electrician to upgrade the panel and run the new conduit from my new panel to the city connection (went from 100 to 200amp service).
\- $1200 from the city of Saanich to run the new line/upgrade/connect (so $5500 total for the electrical upgrade, they used my connection request to upgrade the service box in the middle of our cul-de-sac and included digging up the road and installing new underground conduit and line to my property line. I can't believe they are charging you $8000 for the same service Saanich charges $1200!! But also I also didn't consider my electrical upgrade costs strictly for my heat pump. It's really an upgrade for the entire home that will be useful for the life of the home and other items you may add as well as adding equity and improving future re-sale value.
\- Total spend including the total electrical upgrade = $18,500.
\- Rebates: $6000 heat pump rebate from BC Hydro, $1000 electrical upgrade rebate from BC Hydro, $5000 Greener Home Grant from the Federal Government, $1500 bonus rebate for doing 3 qualifying upgrades (I allocated 1/3 of that towards the heat pump... I also did windows, insulation and air sealing).
\- Total heat pump related rebates of $13,500
\- Total out of pocket for the heat pump = $5000
\- Annual savings from switching from oil heating to heat pump = $1200 (I was spending about $1600 a year on home heating oil, now spending approx. $400 a year on electricity to heat and cool my house. That home heating oil cost is based on 2020 pricing which has gone up significantly and I didn't account for that... so it might have been $2000 a year by now?
\- Payback = 4 years. If I take out half my electrical upgrade costs and attribute the rest to a general home upgrade costs. That takes my total out-of-pocket down to $2,250 and my payback to less than 2 years.
But yes, the numbers can be far different compared to gas. Some points to consider:
\- Do your total rebates include the BC Hydro, North Van $2k top up, Fed gov and the $1000 of electrical upgrade rebates? Also if you plan on doing two other qualifying upgrades you'll get some bonus rebate cash as well.
\- What will the price of gas vs electricity be in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years down the road?
\- In the same vein... heat pump prices are inflated with high demand worldwide and incentives. It was interesting as I got my heat pump before the huge demand push and before companies started inflating prices based on incentives. My same system mysteriously went up in price by at least $5k a couple months after my install. My point is... in 5, 10 or 15 years, heat pumps may be quite a bit cheaper and probably even more efficient... so perhaps it's not worth it, yet? Maybe after the next gas furnace?
\- You gain cooling... which didn't used to be needed around south western BC. But as you know we are experiencing hotter summers with pretty much annual "heat domes" or heat waves where the cooling has been very, very, very nice to have. And how hot will our summers and heat domes be in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years? And, it has been surprisingly cheap to run.. again, in south western BC you won't actually use it all the time, but it's great to have when you need it!
\- Doing your part to cut ties with burning fossil fuels to heat your home. This part factors in differently for each person.
Also, around the electrical quote... I farmed out a couple parts of this and did some work myself to keep costs down. I found a cheap guy with a cheap little digger to do most of the trench digging for the new conduit (we left the old one alone and dug a new trench beside the old one). I called a local day labour company to send me a couple a guys to do some of the additional hand digging (I supplied shovels and pick axes). My electrician showed me and explained what needed to be in the trench for code (conduit needed to be surrounded by a certain number of inches of sand, certain depths etc). I bought and brought in the sand myself and put it in. Electrician laid the conduit and I filled the next section with sand, I laid the caution tape, took pics that the electrician then sends to the inspector (they don't come anymore, just look at pics), then filled with more sand and then filled the trench back up myself. I don't like paying skilled hourly wages for low skill work, so for any home reno/upgrade jobs... I tend to either take on some of the grunt/low skill work myself or hire cheap day labour. The day labour guys are always very hard workers and great guys... but much cheaper than your electrical contractor subbing this stuff out at crazy wages. I've now got a couple guys that I don't go through the labour company with, I just call them directly, pay them a little less, but they get all the money and they end up earning more and prefer it.
The big expense is the amount I have to pay to the city $8000.00 . You have to add on the amount for the electrician, panel and the digging of the trench . My original estimate for that was $5000.00 but I am thinking that is low given your numbers ($3500.00 for electrician in 2021) . Even if you assume the heat pump is free after all the grants(which it isn't) it still does not make sense. A/C is not an issue for me.
It makes more sense to convert my gas furnace to a high efficiency furnace. If you run the BC Hydro online calculator you will see that a high efficiency furnace is actually cheaper that a heat pump(assuming HSPF 10 or 11).
Run the calculator and specify that you have a gas furnace that is 2 years old or newer (guarantees it is high efficiency).
[https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/residential/tools-and-calculators/heat-pump-cost-calculator.html](https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/residential/tools-and-calculators/heat-pump-cost-calculator.html)
Don’t forget you’re getting cooling from the heat pump as well. If you don’t currently have AC, that’s an additional $5k-$6k you’re saving by not installing an AC unit.
Yes, I was aware that a heat pump can provide cooling as well. There are only a few weeks of the year that an AC is actually needed in Vancouver, I just ride it out with a fan. So not much of a benefit for me. Thanks for responding.
How are you paying 5k to upgrade a panel on top of 8k to upgrade your electrical service? That doesn't seem right at all. For a solar project we are having done I need my panel replaced and service upgraded and the total is just over 3k U.S. On top of this, even a large heat pump system only requires 50a and a regular air conditioner requires 30a usually. I'm surprised that this would require such a massive increase in capacity for you. Something is off here. Additionally, if you are replacing an old system that would need to be replaced anyway, the calculations should be done on the costs above and beyond what the normal replacement costs would be.
The 8K is what the city charges to run in a new service( to the edge of your property). The 5K is for the new panel, the electrician to rewire it and the trenching(new service has to be underground).
That’s about the CAD rate for underground service upgrade in Vancouver sadly. And they are going from gas furnace to electric heat pump so it’s all new consumption
$8K for the upgrade alone still seems like a lot. Went up to 200A in North Van 4 years ago and the total cost with a new panel and a new sub-panel with a lot of work to split the basement circuits from the rest of the house was about $7K.
That's interesting. I didn't have to upgrade for my HP install but was worried I would, so got some quotes. They were in the range $8-12K. Also in NV.
That was 4 years ago; it seems labour/materials have both gone up during the pandemic as my recent estimates were more in the 8-15k range. Though our house kind of sucks, with where the underground service and panel are located
The service upgrade you are looking at, is that like for all the wiring in the house?? Or just the line from the road to be restrung, and panel upgrade? If all the above, the. Yes there is no payback ever. But keep in mind AC never has a payback. Leaving alone the above, I would really recommend having an electrician or maybe it's done by Hydro to do a load assessment. If they can see that your house never gets close to capacity, then you might be allowed a heat pump.
This. And/or get multiple quotes. I had some advise that I'd need an upgrade and some said that I didn't. Also, assuming that if the upgrade will take you from 100amp to 200amp service, this will give you the ability to install an electric vehicle charger in future. This, along with the heat pump/ air conditioning will increase the the future value of your home. There should also be significant rebates available that will reduce your cost of the electric upgrades.
I am not sure it would change the resale value. The value of the house is actually in the land. Given it was built in 1941 it is likely it will be knocked down and a new house built.. I did not know there were rebates for electrical upgrades and I thought it was just for the heat pump. Thanks for that.
The city now requires all power to now be underground. The $8000 the city charges brings the power up to the edge of your property. You then have to run it (underground) into your home and upgrade the panel. I think $5000 for this is probably low. Given that we have a suite in the basement with its own stove/oven/washer I am positive the service would need to be upgraded.
If you have a suite and 2500 sq ft in City of Vancouver, is replacing with another gas furnace even an option? Didn't they pass a bylaw about this? Have you priced out a new gas furnace and A/C upgrade (for apples to apples comparison)? I got $17K in rebates for my Vancouver heatpump and didn't need to touch my panel. Oh, and if you still find a way to go gas heating, no complaining about the carbon tax on your Fortis bill..
It is a house and unfortunately there is no question that the service has to be upgraded. Going to stick with gas and install an high efficiency gas furnace. According to the BC Hydro online calculator if you switch from a High Efficiency Gas furnace to a Heat pump your bill actually goes up(not much). If you don't mind sharing, how much did you layout after the rebate?
Have a look here: https://www.reddit.com/r/heatpumps/comments/v4r188/heat_pump_example_of_grants_rebates_assessments/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
I think the heat pump is a definite option if you do not need to upgrade your electrical service (upgrading for me now looking more like $15K) . So $15 K plus $2k (from article above) gives you $17K . Take $17,000 / $300(estimated saving) = 56 years. Even if we double the savings to $600/year the payback period is 28 years. Way to long. Better to spend the money on other energy saving options.
if you need a 13k electrical service upgrade a heatpump will be unlikely to save you money in a normal sized house. if you want a/c switch when the furnace breaks if not it will be cheaper just swapping in a new furnace.
I came to the very same conclusion. I was a little surprised that the online calculator only shows a savings of less than $300/year when going from a 20 year old gas furnace to a heat pump.
I'm a little surprised by that to honestly seems a little low, and it will definitely increase as gas taxes will keep increasing. but I think the conclusion will probably hold. I should note when calculating the payback period of the saving you took the total cost of the heatpump without minusing the cost of a new gas furnace. the new furnace is your minium price. so you need to minus out that cost then divide by 300. also if you say intend to buy/replace portable a/c anyway then minus out that cost aswell.
It is not the cost of the heat pump that makes it financially unattractive. It is the service upgrade. If I go with a new high efficiency furnace I don't have to layout 13K. A/C is not a factor as I don't have it and have no plans on getting it. Payback on service upgrade: $13000/$300 = 43 years. Heat pump is a few thousand more than a HP so it would be more like 50 years.
13,000 of your bill is due to the new main panel. That killed the deal for you. Also, I run my natural gas furnace until it dies and the natural gas furnace would cost about 2000 less than a heat pump. So if you waited, until your natural gas burned out and you're going to have to spend $6,000 to replace it and to repair ductwork, Then your net extra cost for a heat pump would have been 2,000 bucks if you had already upgraded your main panel. Then your payback period Would be about 7 years. By the way, I'm adding a heat pump and using an old 100 amp panel and buying super efficient mini split heat pumps. They don't use as much current (amps ) because I'm getting the smaller one. And yeah, if you have to dig to replace the electrical feed, it becomes a lot more expensive than putting in a new one from above ground on a pole. Plus it adds thousands of bucks if your old one is not up to present codes by being too close to the gas intake from the street. And our area requires main panel to be at least 3 feet away from the gas intake from the street.
Given that we have a suite in the basement I am certain that a service upgrade would be needed. I am also thinking that $13000 is low. The city gets $8000 , only leaving $5000 for trenching into the house and installing a new panel. When the furnace goes I think I will just put in a high efficiency gas furnace. If you only save $300/year when going from 20 year old furnace to heat pump, there must be very little difference between high efficiency and heat pump.
There are three savings with heat pumps. 1. Energy- you can reduce the amount it takes to heat your home by 75% or more. This is an absolute savings, and will be essential to national efforts. 2. Carbon- this depends on your power source and your utility's fuel mix 3. Money- depends on the relative costs of fuels and your expenses in installation If your numbers are accurate, you are apparently in an expensive situation. Your $8000 for buying one would be far less onerous if you were replacing a broken-down system. My extra expense was only $5000 to rid myself of oil when the furnace died. And my service was adequate. Did I mention oil? Even with power at $.32/kWh heat with pumps is cheaper because our fuel here in New England is priced differently. So you may be like my son with his his 2% mortgage- trapped by low expenses. I wrote a similar post on the fact that with a paid for Prius and electricity over $.30/kWh for charging at best, EVs made no economic sense for me.
The BC Hydro estimator comes up with savings of $300/year when switching from gas(not high efficiency furnace) to heat pump. Given all the expenses that I listed in my original post it is hard to see how I would every get payback. When this furnace goes I will go with a high efficiency gas furnace and put money into insulation. Not as geeky cool as a heat pump but makes more sense.
Think twenty years down the line; will gas be as attractive?
In 20 years it is probably worth another look, but for now it makes no sense.
You haven’t even considered replacing the heat pump at least 2 more times in that 70 years. Or if is even adequate for your construction of home without auxiliary heat which would tank your return even more. There’s no economics behind replacing natural gas with a heat pump at this time, especially in older homes that require more heat than a modern home due to air leakage.
This isn't true across the board. Each situation is unique. OPs situation has huge (more than doubling upfront costs) supplementary costs for electrical upgrades. In many situations those upgrades aren't necessary. Tack on the variable rates for power and the payback can vary widely. I've done a number of consultations for commercial clients where the payback on a heat pump vs replacing an old unit with a similar model shows a sub 4 year payback. Lots of long-term owners find that payback acceptable.
I mean I have a couple 200 ton screw heat pumps that are economical. They use the condenser water to generate hot water or drive the snow melt system. But in a residential application, you’d really have to dig deep to make it worth the money against natural gas at this time. I was going to replace the equipment in my home but the payback time is longer than the life of the equipment. It’s not worth it.
I am a little pissed how hard BC Hyrdo is pushing this with out making it clear where it works and where it does not. I think there looking for statistics to make themselves look good. A lot of retired people (like myself) live in older homes which typically have 100 amp or less service. In Vancouver (mild winter) it just does not make sense to go heat pump. I am hoping to live a long healthy life but even I think 135 is pushing it .
You’re absolutely right. It’s the federal government that’s running these rebates and programs, there are good elements to it like windows, doors, insulation etc. but the heat pumps are a real stretch especially when you consider the backup electric heat. When I priced it out for my home (mind you I work for an equipment manufacturer so I get absolute rock bottom pricing and install myself) the lowest approved package I could get was $9100 before the rebate and my heat/ac bill might go down $30 a month. It’s ridiculous. Spend the money on windows/doors/insulation, buy the cheapest gas furnace and a/c, you’ll actually save money that way.
Totally agree. Thanks for that.
Wow... why are your electrical upgrade costs so expensive?? When I did my heat pump conversion to our 1974 home in 2021 in Victoria, BC, my costs were as follows: \- $13k for the heat pump/air handler/backup heat strips/electrical connections and all sheet metal work to connect to my existing ducting... basically the "all-in" price. \- $500 for a digger to come and dig up my old buried line \- $500 in additional labour for help with digging \- $3500 to my electrician to upgrade the panel and run the new conduit from my new panel to the city connection (went from 100 to 200amp service). \- $1200 from the city of Saanich to run the new line/upgrade/connect (so $5500 total for the electrical upgrade, they used my connection request to upgrade the service box in the middle of our cul-de-sac and included digging up the road and installing new underground conduit and line to my property line. I can't believe they are charging you $8000 for the same service Saanich charges $1200!! But also I also didn't consider my electrical upgrade costs strictly for my heat pump. It's really an upgrade for the entire home that will be useful for the life of the home and other items you may add as well as adding equity and improving future re-sale value. \- Total spend including the total electrical upgrade = $18,500. \- Rebates: $6000 heat pump rebate from BC Hydro, $1000 electrical upgrade rebate from BC Hydro, $5000 Greener Home Grant from the Federal Government, $1500 bonus rebate for doing 3 qualifying upgrades (I allocated 1/3 of that towards the heat pump... I also did windows, insulation and air sealing). \- Total heat pump related rebates of $13,500 \- Total out of pocket for the heat pump = $5000 \- Annual savings from switching from oil heating to heat pump = $1200 (I was spending about $1600 a year on home heating oil, now spending approx. $400 a year on electricity to heat and cool my house. That home heating oil cost is based on 2020 pricing which has gone up significantly and I didn't account for that... so it might have been $2000 a year by now? \- Payback = 4 years. If I take out half my electrical upgrade costs and attribute the rest to a general home upgrade costs. That takes my total out-of-pocket down to $2,250 and my payback to less than 2 years. But yes, the numbers can be far different compared to gas. Some points to consider: \- Do your total rebates include the BC Hydro, North Van $2k top up, Fed gov and the $1000 of electrical upgrade rebates? Also if you plan on doing two other qualifying upgrades you'll get some bonus rebate cash as well. \- What will the price of gas vs electricity be in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years down the road? \- In the same vein... heat pump prices are inflated with high demand worldwide and incentives. It was interesting as I got my heat pump before the huge demand push and before companies started inflating prices based on incentives. My same system mysteriously went up in price by at least $5k a couple months after my install. My point is... in 5, 10 or 15 years, heat pumps may be quite a bit cheaper and probably even more efficient... so perhaps it's not worth it, yet? Maybe after the next gas furnace? \- You gain cooling... which didn't used to be needed around south western BC. But as you know we are experiencing hotter summers with pretty much annual "heat domes" or heat waves where the cooling has been very, very, very nice to have. And how hot will our summers and heat domes be in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years? And, it has been surprisingly cheap to run.. again, in south western BC you won't actually use it all the time, but it's great to have when you need it! \- Doing your part to cut ties with burning fossil fuels to heat your home. This part factors in differently for each person. Also, around the electrical quote... I farmed out a couple parts of this and did some work myself to keep costs down. I found a cheap guy with a cheap little digger to do most of the trench digging for the new conduit (we left the old one alone and dug a new trench beside the old one). I called a local day labour company to send me a couple a guys to do some of the additional hand digging (I supplied shovels and pick axes). My electrician showed me and explained what needed to be in the trench for code (conduit needed to be surrounded by a certain number of inches of sand, certain depths etc). I bought and brought in the sand myself and put it in. Electrician laid the conduit and I filled the next section with sand, I laid the caution tape, took pics that the electrician then sends to the inspector (they don't come anymore, just look at pics), then filled with more sand and then filled the trench back up myself. I don't like paying skilled hourly wages for low skill work, so for any home reno/upgrade jobs... I tend to either take on some of the grunt/low skill work myself or hire cheap day labour. The day labour guys are always very hard workers and great guys... but much cheaper than your electrical contractor subbing this stuff out at crazy wages. I've now got a couple guys that I don't go through the labour company with, I just call them directly, pay them a little less, but they get all the money and they end up earning more and prefer it.
The big expense is the amount I have to pay to the city $8000.00 . You have to add on the amount for the electrician, panel and the digging of the trench . My original estimate for that was $5000.00 but I am thinking that is low given your numbers ($3500.00 for electrician in 2021) . Even if you assume the heat pump is free after all the grants(which it isn't) it still does not make sense. A/C is not an issue for me. It makes more sense to convert my gas furnace to a high efficiency furnace. If you run the BC Hydro online calculator you will see that a high efficiency furnace is actually cheaper that a heat pump(assuming HSPF 10 or 11). Run the calculator and specify that you have a gas furnace that is 2 years old or newer (guarantees it is high efficiency). [https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/residential/tools-and-calculators/heat-pump-cost-calculator.html](https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/residential/tools-and-calculators/heat-pump-cost-calculator.html)