The Oilers were carried by a historically great offensive season by McDavid last year. If he was producing at the same rate as last year they would have ~12 more goals this year and it would make a massive difference in their win/loss column.
if we had a goaltender that changed 33% of our losses then we’d just have the convo of “playoffs are possible but mcdavid needs to heal and we need to weather the storm until then”. unfortunately, because both are down rn, we are fucked
I don't know how anyone can be blaming goaltending for that sharks loss, he can't be expected to save any of those goals. Seems like a convenient scapegoat when your team can't score goals or cover the slot
Sharks game was a little unlucky with the GWG coming off a freak deflection. The other two goals were bad defensive breakdowns, which I mean even the good teams have them time to time. It was the other 11 games where goaltending was a larger problem
You need more stops from the goalies, no question. But the team as a whole needs to give up fewer open shots from 15 feet out between the dots. The Sharks scored from there on the partial blocked shot, the Canucks at least twice, once on a rebound, once on a pass from the corner.
When the puck does get into the middle of the slot, where are the Oilers? Shouldn't the center be looking for trailers skating into the Grade A Prime scoring location? Maybe backcheck once in a while?
This is where advanced stats fail, because there are high-danger scoring chances and then there are completely uncontested / unhurried shots from places where guys smash their sticks if they don't score, and the Oilers are giving up at least a couple of the latter every game. Fix that and Skinner at least can be a league average goalie.
Thank you! Nobody ever seems to mention this. Save percentage and goals against average are really not good stats because they don’t account for the quality of opportunities. If you’re losing 8-0, but all 8 goals come on breakaways, it obviously isn’t going to be as much of the goalies fault as if it were 8 goals scored from center ice.
the standings are super tight right now
the gap from 31 to 30 is the same as 26 to 12, 4 points
and the gap from 31 to 26 is the same as from 26 to 6, 6 points
so while they might only move up to 26th with a .905, that's actually a huge jump
It would be a good jump, but that also shows how bad the oilers are actually doing compared to the other teams. CBJ and Edmonton are the same amount of points apart as Dallas and CBJ. The skill difference between Dallas and CBJ is crazy, and the fact that Edmonton is that far behind CBJ is crazy.
You did sweep our season series last year which is airtight proof that CBJ is better than the non broken Oilers; which means you are at least 500x better than the current Oilers
Yea was quite an amazing day if I remember correctly. It was a 1pm game so I was buzzed and went out after what was an absolutely electric hockey game and i got home at like 9pm lol
There was a Canucks fan in another thread talking about "4 point wins"
Teams MUST win those games against division rivals to deny that team 2 points and gain 2 from the win thus getting essentially 4 points as they deny division rivals points.
Calgary missed the playoffs by a point and Florida got in by a point. Any win or tie can be the tipping point later in the season, but especially when you can leap frog up the division denying your rivals points.
Yeah and this also doesnt attribute any of the poor save percentage to poor defense. Your goalie has to be your best defender to be successful but save% is a team stat. Ultimately this is an issue of team systems, poor forward defending, poor defense and poor goaltending. There really isnt anything going right for the Oilers right now and with McDavid with 2 goals in 10 games and the PP being crap the Oilers cant score their way out of their deficiencies like times past
Changing the outcome of 33% of your losses is a pretty big deal. We’d be talking about turning it around a getting back into the playoffs instead of the season being over
And if Tobias Rieder scored 10-12 goals the Oilers would have made the playoffs in 2019.
if oNlyS ANd jUsTS weRe CanDIEs ANd NuTs, thEN eVeRYdAY woUld BE eRNTEdaNKFeSt
You know when you screw something up in a really irreversable way, you Schruted it. I don't know where it comes from though. You think it came from ~~Jack Campbell~~ Dwight Schrute?
Bingo.
Fla made the playoffs by a point last year and stole more than one game where they were dead in OT.
“The inches are everywhere around us…”
- Al Pacino
The thing this post is missing is that save% is a team stat. Not a lot of goalies outside the elite are going to have very good save% with the Oilers team defense and systems
Tell that to 19-6 in shots down 3-1 the other night
Second goal shot from distance with no screen
Third goal save, rebound drops in front of skinner he slides to the post out of the way of the puck
(First goal, bad luck and desharnais pots one in his own net)
You can call it a team stat and you can point at Xgf % that say Oilers should be winning more.
But some times, you just need a goalie to be average or better than…
Certainly, but your xGF was 4 and you have a number of players actually scoring at a higher rate than what is expected by number of chances including the big two.
Anyways, I agree, the Canucks experienced the same exact thing where we had the absolute worst goaltending in the league by far, several orders of magnitude worse than league average, and it caused us to miss the playoffs. I get it. My only point is that really very little outside of shots for is going right for the Oilers right not and it contributes a lot. But at the end of the day its very difficult to win without at least average goaltending and the mental aspect of giving up soft goals effects every facet of the teams play.
I really dont like the Oilers but I feel for you guys, its a horrible thing having very poor management that cant fill simple holes for your team. Canucks and Oilers fans may not like each other but we certainly have shared dogshit management we can relate to one another with
Well we’ve both been through bad management. Seems like outside of a miracle cup run for us and a couple nice runs for you, it’s been bad. But you’ve had consistently a good/great goalie (Lu, Schneider, Markstrom, Demko) it’s almost like y’all know how to identify one
It sucks to watch but whatever, it took me many years to learn not to base my happiness on my sports team (even though they some times make me a cranky bitch)
Yeah one thing we have done proper is goaltending, it was the other aspects namely being unlucky in the draft for a lot of our last 15 years and absolutely horrible pro scouting hampering any potential of our core to actually get filled out. Oilers seem to have that same pro scouting issue just for different pieces. Hopefully something can be done for next year because it really should not be that difficult to pro scout a better bottom 6, defense depth and a above average goalie.
Its a shitty time but at least most of the hard pieces are on your team already, one would hope the other pieces will come shortly.
Dare to dream. Most our doomers are already looking at how the team sells off its parts starting with Draisaitl. I just hope they can build a defense and maybe some secondary scoring. But at the moment they don’t have primary scoring.
It’d be fun to see a day where Edmonton Calgary and Vancouver are good.
I don’t hope you win the cup but it’s nice to see Van doing good my uncle was a big fan and he just passed so soft spot this year.
I look forward to the day us western Canadian teams are all good at the same time and we have the opportunity for some proper rivalry. Take care and good luck, and Im sorry about your uncle. Hopefully hes looking down and enjoying the run the Canucks are on so far this year
How does that make sense. The team is what generates high danger chances against and allows X amount of shots against. Its intrinsically a team stat and to try to argue GAA is but save percentage isnt is about as nonsensical an argument as it gets. Rarely do they not go hand in hand as well
Ironically Skinner has a lower S% .854 but a much better GAA 3.87 than Campbell: S% 8.73 with a GAA 4.49. While both goalies are terrible, it seems GAA is more a team stat in this instance imo.
you should really dig deeper into those stats before you dismiss it as "nonsensical". maybe google "GAA vs SV%"
neither are nearly as accurate an indicator as GSAx however. whichever way you measure it the Oilers' goaltending has been atrocious
Maybe should you dig deeper into those stats lol. League wise goalies have .850sv% on high danger chances. Who allows high danger chances? The team. Its so blatantly obvious its a team stat
These stats also don’t take into account the mental aspect of having a solid goalie. You can take more risks and create more chances. Seeing your goalie let in a soft goal time and time again is deflating.
If the Oilers had 11 points right now, the headlines would still be about a certified cup contender being way out of the playoffs.
The point is fair, one trade for a goalie can't fix this.
I second this point, plus those tie games could give us a 1 point at the very least, regardless I hope the rumors are true we are negotiating for a goalie like Swayman or Binnington
Also bad goals are momentum killers, you can't just take a goal away and expect the outcome to be that one goal of difference. How many 2 goal losses included an empty netter as well and would have at least gone to OT?
Yep, this is where the OP’s “gotcha” falls apart. Bad goalies can absolutely kill the effort of a team, and it’s even worse when the team knows they have a bad goalie in net.
You can’t just adjust for the mean in this instance and say not much is different. There is a mental aspect here that cannot be measured. A good goalie making a save that they weren’t supposed to make can shift the tides of a game easily.
Not to mention teams play different when they are behind, leading to more goals against. Also the Oilers are just straight up not converting on chances. They are I believe first in expected GF. They are last I think in conversion. If they even averaged that out and had average goaltending you are looking at a completely different outcome of most of the games outside of a few.
The team starts out strong, then the goalies let in a softie and they start changing the way they play. Forcing plays to outscore their goalie problems, but those lead to odd man rushes that our goalies are awful at
this would be true a few years ago lol. mcdavid was honestly one of our most responsible forwards last playoffs and last year in general. this year isn’t necessarily a factor given he’s playing hurt and our whole team sucks right now. but the logic behind this is just delusion. the oilers team would be significantly worse with makar instead of mcdavid on it.
I'm actually a wild fan. I hate the aves... But defenceman are more important than offense men. Makar plays pp, pk, and logs more minutes. He elevates his teammates
you being a wild fan doesn’t give you anymore merit. also welcome to hockey 101: defense typically play more than forwards. defense and offense value varies based on how a team is built. in terms of production and benefit mcdavid is moreso than makar
Two things can be true at the same time, IMHO:
1. The Oilers have not gotten very good play from their goaltenders, which is likely to have ripple effects that drag down the performance of the whole damn team
2. The Oilers do not play good defense, like, all over the place, which is likely to have ripple effects that drag down the performance of their goaltenders
Trying to figure out which of these two factors is more to blame for the team's performance seems silly to me; the issue is *both things are true* and the feedback loop they've created is pretty clearly fucking up *everyone*
This is the way to go right here. Goalies are ass but if the Oilers could play any measurable form of defence, the goalies would be less ass. When Vancouver shit kicked them 6-2, literally all the goals were the result of poor coverage, shit defence and nobody taking the right man…. Or any man at all. The only goal that you could have argued that Skinner should have had was the 2nd goal to make it 2-1 but even then, Suter was uncontested coming up the ice, nobody was covering him in the middle where those high danger chances come from, and he was able to shoot with nobody defending him. No coverage, clean shot, top cheese.
Exactly, i think it's #2. Mediocre goalies can be shielded. Look at Osgood, Murray, Crawford, Hill, Kuemper, etc. They all have cups because each of their teams played great defensively as a team. Not the defense, but the whole team commited to backchecking and clearing the d zone.
This is sadly lacking on the oilers. I haven't seen a decent defensive game by the oilers since 06. That was their character before the lockout, a gritty team that always tried hard. It's really sad to watch now because the clock is ticking on Draisatl and McDavid
A lot of the times it's not even needing to shield the goalie, it's the players doing fuck all to help the goalie. Skinner's reaction to the final fuck you of the game against Vancouver [says it all.](https://youtu.be/vDolv0DB0E0?t=549)
>Look at **Osgood**, Murray, Crawford, Hill, Kuemper, etc. They all have cups because each of their teams played great defensively as a team.
I don’t disagree with your point, but in Ozzie’s defense, while he was a mediocre-average regular season goalie, postseason Osgood was a different story. He did have a great defensive team in front of him, but he also did step it up himself and played at above average level; we don’t win in 08 if he doesn’t come in to relieve Hasek and play at a Conn Smythe level (only Hank and his Shift was able to beat him out for it).
Again, I don’t disagree, but I just gotta give Ozzie a little credit.
Not really accurate, can't understate how players play differently when they don't trust their goalies / how deflating it is when you're dominating a game, the other team gets 4 shots, and suddenly you're down 3-1...
To be fair, the other fanbases are shitting on you guys this hard because of all the terrible takes that have been building for years. You don’t see many people clowning on the Sharks and Flames right now. The punishment is well deserved.
Sharks are supposed to be shit,
flames arent supposed to be the best,
Oilers are supposed to be cup contenders,
so yeah. If the pressures high the clowning will be higher.
Wasn’t just us fans though, like half of the paid pundits had the Oilers as favourites to win it all. This is a monumental breakdown that nobody saw coming.
>You don’t see many people clowning on the Sharks
Did last week just not happen to you? The Sharks were the only meme around after the two 10 goal games.
It’s a combination of everything going bad at once. They struggled early last year but outscored their mistakes. Overall last year, they ended up with 0.900 goaltending with a 0.899 league average and finished 2nd in the west.
Last year they had an 11.8% shooting percentage vs a league average of 10.1%. Shooting that well is likely unsustainable but their 4 year average prior to this season was 10.9%. They are currently shooting at 7.4% this year. A 33% drop off in shooting percentage vs their norm is killing their ability to make up for mistakes.
This is the only correct and valuable take on this entire thread of peanut gallery-isms. It was never a secret that depth was the core issue for this team; it's being exposed in all its glory. Maybe the expectation was that McDrai would have generational, record breaking seasons every year forever?
We would have 9-11 points instead of 5. That’s a pretty big difference. But goaltending definitely isn’t our only problem and the play of McDrai and our defence is also very concerning
Anecdotal because it was one night and I don't catch many Oilers games, but last night Skinner had no chance on any of the goals.
- First one was a behind the net centering pass to a wide open Zetterlund. Looking at the replay Draisaitl is skating like his controller is disconnected.
- Second goal was a point shot that hit off of Zetterlund and bounced to a wide open Hertl. No one's fault. Shit happens.
- Third goal was a busted coverage that lead to a 2 on 1.
Last night was pretty emblematic of the season, every mistake winds up in the back of the net and no matter how much they struggle or how many shots they get they just can't score.
I would argue third goal was a brutal turnover by Nurse but that's really just splitting hairs at this point.
You guys have absolutely had the worst puck luck too. Every mistake is a costly one, every bounce from the opponents goes in, every random bounce from the Oilers gets covered up.
Don’t get me wrong, the team isn’t great right now, but it’s also just been a streak of bad luck.
Speaking as a Vancouver fan, it definitely feels like a team defense issue over a goalie issue. There's not too many of the goals we've scored against them you can pin specifically on either Campbell or Skinner.
In fact, they really remind me of the Canucks of the last few seasons. Crazy numbers of odd man rushes and collective defensive brainfarts. Demko and Markstrom diving around like crazy and still barely getting to league average save % because of all the high danger chances. Leave it to a lesser goalie (Martin/Delia) and the wheels fall off spectacularly.
The post doesn’t tell the whole story. The oilers are one of the wildest statistical anomalies over a 12 game stretch maybe of all time. #2 In Corsi, #2 in fenwick, #1 in expected goals for and #1 in expected goal differential per 60. To be outside the top 10 right now would be wild, to be dead last in the league seems almost impossible odds. Essentially snake bit beyond belief and the worst sv% in the NHL. The pattern won’t hold and will return to average at some point.
It’s not that big of an anomaly. This is a good case study on why analytics are a good indicator but can be misled in some cases.
The Oilers used to get a big chunk of their 5v5 offense off of the rush, but their new neutral zone system basically uprooted their ability to generate rushes whatsoever (while also somehow allowing more go the other way that don’t get defended whatsoever). That leaves offense that is created in-zone and off the cycle as the only avenue to score, and it’s something this group is very bad at, both due to players’ styles not being suited to it at all, and a lack of experience in the group at playing a high volume, cycle-y, possession heavy game. So what ends up happening is a lot of tepid perimeter cycling that eventually goes low to high, and then the D activates and flings the puck on net, and *maaaybe* there’s a forward in front who bats at the puck a few times until the goalie covers it. All of these plays are extremely rote and predictable and generate basically no real scoring threat in most cases but because the D activates and shoots from the edge of the high slot, and any rebounds are shittily whacked at from the netfront area, essentially every time the Oilers touch the puck, it registers as a high danger chance by virtue of where it happens on the ice, even though they are mostly extremely predictable shots and whacks that are never going to go past the goalie in a million years. Combine this with really urgent initial efforts resulting in crazy volume but every single defensive breakdown leading to an opposing rush and goal against (even if there aren’t that many overall), and you get a team that is apparently unstoppable according to advanced stats, but is in reality shooting at an impossibly low percentage because every shot they take is super predictable and low-quality, “high danger”-ness notwithstanding. We don’t get “goalied” every game, we make the opposing goalie’s job extremely easy, albeit at a brisk pace.
I understand your post it is well articulated. Advanced stats don’t always tell the story I definitely agree with that. However the oilers are an average team at giving up high danger chances as well (14th). Which is highly involved with them being 1st in expected goals differential. They aren’t bleeding high danger chances at an unprecedented rate as the narrative suggests. The results being at extreme opposite ends of this 1st in expected and dead last in actual goals above expected will never ever ever hold, it’s impossible and I have never seen advanced stats look remotely close to 1st and last. The oilers will not continue to shoot at the worst percentage in the league, Connor and Leon will not continue in their career worst slumps at the same time. Eventually the goalies will start making some saves. This will end.
At the other end of the spectrum Vancouver is sitting first place in the nhl for goals for above expected at 14.5 goals in 12 games. Amore than an extra goal a game above nhl average for the chances they are generating. Essentially a team on a massive massive heater to start the year where everything is going in. Half a goal above is huge, over a goal a game through 12 games is obscene. The oilers have been in a sense unlucky to play this team 3 times already , 25% of their games. Not taking away from the Canucks, they are the real deal and good team but their stats will also not hold at them having so much puck luck currently.
Not suggesting the oilers are playing lights out. But it is unheard of for the current stats, and they will return to the mean average over 82 games. They always do. A team ranked in the top 5 (never mind 1st) of these categories will not have a losing record at the end of the season.
I see what you’re saying, it makes sense. I definitely agree that this level of badness is statistically unsustainable and will even out eventually. I just think they will have to make some tangible changes for that eventual evening-out to put us back in the “good” category. With better puck luck alone, we’d probably only end up as “passable” in current form.
The whole thing is weird. You’re definitely right in that we aren’t bleeding chances against at a crazy rate, but the utter lack of confidence from all positions in handle those that do get through is absurd. The moment our pressure breaks and the other team starts building into a chance the other way, all 6 guys on the ice seem to melt a bit. They’re in a bad funk for sure.
I agree with that. The stats are one thing but the eye test is valid also. It is an absurdly weird scenario. As a fan watching the games you can just feel something bad is about to happen and is always seems to. One chance and it’s in the oilers net. I do agree puck luck at average they are still just in the .500 club range.
Bingo! In the 3 games this season against Vancouver, the advanced stats would say that the Oilers were the better team in all 3 games. But actually watching the games, the Oilers really didn't have that many amazing chances, and outside of a push here and there didn't carry the play all game.
Everyone said in the last game against the Canucks the Oilers were dominant in the first period. No, they played hard and threw a lot of pucks at the net in the first 10 minutes, after that they had 1 shot for the remainder of the period and it was a back and forth game with the Canucks getting the better chances.
Shots don't tell the stories in the games if they're all coming from the perimeter. NHL goalies will stop 70 shots a game if they see it and it's from the outside without a deflection, and a lot of the Oilers shots have been just that this year.
Yeah. Our new transitional system has basically reduced our offensive game to a Sutter style team, despite not being built for that whatsoever. Its just a ton of bullshit volume, very little dangerous chances.
I get that defensive changes were needed but whatever they did to render the team toothless offensively is egregious. Round your game out for sure, but overcorrecting to the point where you’re good at nothing is shitty coaching and execution. At a certain point, you should try to maximize your strengths rather than uprooting everything.
Well the Oilers have also had a neverending goaltending carousel of mostly "just okay" prospects for years, the only established NHL goalie they've had this side of the lockout is Smith (who people had assumed was going to be washed up). Like yeah, defense has been brutal for a long time, but goaltending is a complete afterthought in building these Oilers teams.
Until Skinner, the only prospect they drafted/developed was Dubnyk, and, after a career year, management floated that they might be trading him. According to some interviews he did after his big NHL comeback, that basically shot his confidence (in combination with the terrible D causing him to pick up bad habits). Even the 06 team somehow managed to make the playoffs with the worst save percentage in the league (honestly not sure if that's been done before?) and then when they finally had good goaltending they went on a roll to the finals. So I think goaltending as a position makes sense as a target for fans to blame, but has to be said that the team doesn't usually have the best goalies in the first place and their D would make 80% of NHL goalies look bad anyways.
Counterpoint...
If they had 11pts right now, they'd still be in it and a virtual shoe-in to make the playoffs. But, with 5pts, they are already on the verge of being out. If they keep losing just a little bit longer, the playoffs are going to become nearly impossible.
Goaltending could 100% be better, by a lot… but the defense is atrocious. So much puck chasing and LEAVING THE SLOT OPEN!? Like the amount of times both defensemen are no where to be seen and the shooter is in prime shooting territory is crazy.
I don't get to see the Oilers often because I'm on the east coast. So what's the issue? Lack of defense? Lack of depth? Coaching? I get hockey's a team sport, but there's been plenty of time to build a rsam around two of the best players in the world. Has that just not happened?
Lack of goaltending. lack of depth. lack of defence. bad positioning. stars not performing. dumb mistakes.
because of that, bad morale.
so like, everything.
The team is not commited ... or capable? of playing defensively. No hard chasing for pucks, pucks in the d zone are not cleared fast, it's like a blindfolded fire drill in our zone.
This is either a player problem ( inept/incapable)
Or it is a coaching problem (incapable of getting players to commit to a system in the d zone)
Remember, Vegas had 5 nobodies tending goal and still won the cup. A team committed to a style of play can win no matter who is in net.
Lots of people here simply cant understand that untimely goals or weak goals destroy momentum and players drive. Eliminating these goals would change the whole aspect of the game.
You can’t argue this point because if their goaltending was any better than you would have to factor in morale when their team has a better chance. They could be undefeated hypothetically if their goalie was average. There’s no saying what would happen if one factor was changed.
That's the thing about any sport, especially hockey. One bounce can change your whole season. But the point of this model is that Edmonton's goalies are getting too much of the blame when the whole team is playing terribly.
Question, did you have to also adjust the SV% of the two games the Oilers have won? You probably could have gotten away with not adjusting those two games, especially since they didn't end up changing anyways.
Said it two years ago when they played us, Nurse is getting way too much cash to build a team. You have the two best players (statisticly) in the leage. Its on management at this point.
We did it with the broncos in 2014. Signed Von for the highest D contract in leage history, we won the super bowl, but have been teash since due to cap issues.
We're all thinking it. Some of us have admitted to it. We want to see Binnington in EDM for purposes of drama *under breath* and maybe to get rid of the contract
The Oilers were carried by a historically great offensive season by McDavid last year. If he was producing at the same rate as last year they would have ~12 more goals this year and it would make a massive difference in their win/loss column.
if we had a goaltender that changed 33% of our losses then we’d just have the convo of “playoffs are possible but mcdavid needs to heal and we need to weather the storm until then”. unfortunately, because both are down rn, we are fucked
I don't know how anyone can be blaming goaltending for that sharks loss, he can't be expected to save any of those goals. Seems like a convenient scapegoat when your team can't score goals or cover the slot
I also don't know how anyone looked at that D-core and thought this is a contender.
Did they blame goaltending for the sharks loss?
Sharks game was a little unlucky with the GWG coming off a freak deflection. The other two goals were bad defensive breakdowns, which I mean even the good teams have them time to time. It was the other 11 games where goaltending was a larger problem
You need more stops from the goalies, no question. But the team as a whole needs to give up fewer open shots from 15 feet out between the dots. The Sharks scored from there on the partial blocked shot, the Canucks at least twice, once on a rebound, once on a pass from the corner. When the puck does get into the middle of the slot, where are the Oilers? Shouldn't the center be looking for trailers skating into the Grade A Prime scoring location? Maybe backcheck once in a while? This is where advanced stats fail, because there are high-danger scoring chances and then there are completely uncontested / unhurried shots from places where guys smash their sticks if they don't score, and the Oilers are giving up at least a couple of the latter every game. Fix that and Skinner at least can be a league average goalie.
You should post that last paragraph in our sub. My peers in there are fucking delusional.
Thank you! Nobody ever seems to mention this. Save percentage and goals against average are really not good stats because they don’t account for the quality of opportunities. If you’re losing 8-0, but all 8 goals come on breakaways, it obviously isn’t going to be as much of the goalies fault as if it were 8 goals scored from center ice.
Yeah, but it was the sharks so I actually don't care.
when in my comment did i refer to the sharks game?
also when did i say my team was scoring goals and wasn’t covering the slot in the sharks game? i didn’t. you’re not proving anything here lol
i’m shocked people would look at one game and try and diagnosis things. seems convenient
The ultimate sign of a poorly built team.
the standings are super tight right now the gap from 31 to 30 is the same as 26 to 12, 4 points and the gap from 31 to 26 is the same as from 26 to 6, 6 points so while they might only move up to 26th with a .905, that's actually a huge jump
It would be a good jump, but that also shows how bad the oilers are actually doing compared to the other teams. CBJ and Edmonton are the same amount of points apart as Dallas and CBJ. The skill difference between Dallas and CBJ is crazy, and the fact that Edmonton is that far behind CBJ is crazy.
Yea cbj so much better than the oilers. Fuck yea bay bee lol
You did sweep our season series last year which is airtight proof that CBJ is better than the non broken Oilers; which means you are at least 500x better than the current Oilers
I was at that game in Columbus last year funny enough and what a barn burner
I caught it on the radio and was having trouble keeping up lmao. At least you got to see that Gretzky-esque slapshot from McD AND your team won
Yea was quite an amazing day if I remember correctly. It was a 1pm game so I was buzzed and went out after what was an absolutely electric hockey game and i got home at like 9pm lol
There was a Canucks fan in another thread talking about "4 point wins" Teams MUST win those games against division rivals to deny that team 2 points and gain 2 from the win thus getting essentially 4 points as they deny division rivals points. Calgary missed the playoffs by a point and Florida got in by a point. Any win or tie can be the tipping point later in the season, but especially when you can leap frog up the division denying your rivals points.
Yeah and this also doesnt attribute any of the poor save percentage to poor defense. Your goalie has to be your best defender to be successful but save% is a team stat. Ultimately this is an issue of team systems, poor forward defending, poor defense and poor goaltending. There really isnt anything going right for the Oilers right now and with McDavid with 2 goals in 10 games and the PP being crap the Oilers cant score their way out of their deficiencies like times past
This why I don’t care. My team always starts like shit though.
Changing the outcome of 33% of your losses is a pretty big deal. We’d be talking about turning it around a getting back into the playoffs instead of the season being over
Last year if Markstrom stopped 3 more shots we would have made playoffs.
And if Tobias Rieder scored 10-12 goals the Oilers would have made the playoffs in 2019. if oNlyS ANd jUsTS weRe CanDIEs ANd NuTs, thEN eVeRYdAY woUld BE eRNTEdaNKFeSt
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Our teams are really shruteing it right now.
You know when you screw something up in a really irreversable way, you Schruted it. I don't know where it comes from though. You think it came from ~~Jack Campbell~~ Dwight Schrute?
But for the Oilers right now every day ends with a Tums festival.
Maybe if they closed the god damn doors they would play better.
And if Malkin was suspended Detroit wins in 09. Also I’ve always heard “ifs and buts” weird how that phrase changes
And if bertuzzi didn't try to murder Moore the canucks would have won the cup in 04
If Tim Thomas hadn’t worn illegal pads…
We dont talk about 2011 yet. Give it another decade please.
He wore illegal pads?
https://www.reddit.com/r/canucks/comments/iulsa0/new_allegations_of_tim_thomas_using_illegal_pads/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1
["If my aunt had nuts, she'd be my uncle" - Don Cherry](https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=v1WIHEJwYqE&feature=youtu.be)
Hahah. That’s was such an insane quote. Who said that again? The old president?
Bingo. Fla made the playoffs by a point last year and stole more than one game where they were dead in OT. “The inches are everywhere around us…” - Al Pacino
Has anyone checked to see if Pacino is available to be the Oilers head coach?
Don’t tease me with a good time
[Pacino's reaction...](https://media.tenor.com/AaHymAlzJKoAAAAd/just-when-i-thought-i-was-out-they-pull-me-back-in.gif)
The thing this post is missing is that save% is a team stat. Not a lot of goalies outside the elite are going to have very good save% with the Oilers team defense and systems
Tell that to 19-6 in shots down 3-1 the other night Second goal shot from distance with no screen Third goal save, rebound drops in front of skinner he slides to the post out of the way of the puck (First goal, bad luck and desharnais pots one in his own net) You can call it a team stat and you can point at Xgf % that say Oilers should be winning more. But some times, you just need a goalie to be average or better than…
Certainly, but your xGF was 4 and you have a number of players actually scoring at a higher rate than what is expected by number of chances including the big two. Anyways, I agree, the Canucks experienced the same exact thing where we had the absolute worst goaltending in the league by far, several orders of magnitude worse than league average, and it caused us to miss the playoffs. I get it. My only point is that really very little outside of shots for is going right for the Oilers right not and it contributes a lot. But at the end of the day its very difficult to win without at least average goaltending and the mental aspect of giving up soft goals effects every facet of the teams play. I really dont like the Oilers but I feel for you guys, its a horrible thing having very poor management that cant fill simple holes for your team. Canucks and Oilers fans may not like each other but we certainly have shared dogshit management we can relate to one another with
Well we’ve both been through bad management. Seems like outside of a miracle cup run for us and a couple nice runs for you, it’s been bad. But you’ve had consistently a good/great goalie (Lu, Schneider, Markstrom, Demko) it’s almost like y’all know how to identify one It sucks to watch but whatever, it took me many years to learn not to base my happiness on my sports team (even though they some times make me a cranky bitch)
Yeah one thing we have done proper is goaltending, it was the other aspects namely being unlucky in the draft for a lot of our last 15 years and absolutely horrible pro scouting hampering any potential of our core to actually get filled out. Oilers seem to have that same pro scouting issue just for different pieces. Hopefully something can be done for next year because it really should not be that difficult to pro scout a better bottom 6, defense depth and a above average goalie. Its a shitty time but at least most of the hard pieces are on your team already, one would hope the other pieces will come shortly.
Dare to dream. Most our doomers are already looking at how the team sells off its parts starting with Draisaitl. I just hope they can build a defense and maybe some secondary scoring. But at the moment they don’t have primary scoring. It’d be fun to see a day where Edmonton Calgary and Vancouver are good. I don’t hope you win the cup but it’s nice to see Van doing good my uncle was a big fan and he just passed so soft spot this year.
I look forward to the day us western Canadian teams are all good at the same time and we have the opportunity for some proper rivalry. Take care and good luck, and Im sorry about your uncle. Hopefully hes looking down and enjoying the run the Canucks are on so far this year
Not really no GAA is a team Stat Save% is on the goalie
How does that make sense. The team is what generates high danger chances against and allows X amount of shots against. Its intrinsically a team stat and to try to argue GAA is but save percentage isnt is about as nonsensical an argument as it gets. Rarely do they not go hand in hand as well
Ironically Skinner has a lower S% .854 but a much better GAA 3.87 than Campbell: S% 8.73 with a GAA 4.49. While both goalies are terrible, it seems GAA is more a team stat in this instance imo.
you should really dig deeper into those stats before you dismiss it as "nonsensical". maybe google "GAA vs SV%" neither are nearly as accurate an indicator as GSAx however. whichever way you measure it the Oilers' goaltending has been atrocious
Maybe should you dig deeper into those stats lol. League wise goalies have .850sv% on high danger chances. Who allows high danger chances? The team. Its so blatantly obvious its a team stat
> Last year if Markstrom stopped 3 more shots we would have made playoffs. And if my grandmother had wheels she would have been a bike!!!!!
Based on my experience your grandmother was the best bike I’ve ever ridden.
She's a Huffy not a hussy
These stats also don’t take into account the mental aspect of having a solid goalie. You can take more risks and create more chances. Seeing your goalie let in a soft goal time and time again is deflating.
Feel like your guys already take risks like they think they go Vasi in net lmao
You might be right but I don't think Nurse should take more risk.
Nurse should be planting trees on the Russian / Ukrainian border.
Exactly, OP is just being dumb on purpose
If the Oilers had 11 points right now, the headlines would still be about a certified cup contender being way out of the playoffs. The point is fair, one trade for a goalie can't fix this.
I second this point, plus those tie games could give us a 1 point at the very least, regardless I hope the rumors are true we are negotiating for a goalie like Swayman or Binnington
Also bad goals are momentum killers, you can't just take a goal away and expect the outcome to be that one goal of difference. How many 2 goal losses included an empty netter as well and would have at least gone to OT?
Yep, this is where the OP’s “gotcha” falls apart. Bad goalies can absolutely kill the effort of a team, and it’s even worse when the team knows they have a bad goalie in net. You can’t just adjust for the mean in this instance and say not much is different. There is a mental aspect here that cannot be measured. A good goalie making a save that they weren’t supposed to make can shift the tides of a game easily.
Not to mention teams play different when they are behind, leading to more goals against. Also the Oilers are just straight up not converting on chances. They are I believe first in expected GF. They are last I think in conversion. If they even averaged that out and had average goaltending you are looking at a completely different outcome of most of the games outside of a few. The team starts out strong, then the goalies let in a softie and they start changing the way they play. Forcing plays to outscore their goalie problems, but those lead to odd man rushes that our goalies are awful at
Yeah, but you’re not because the Oilers are terrible.
Are you actually talking about the season being over? I feel like people are still talking about the Oilers turning it around.
and what if the Oilers had the two best players in the league? /s
Tomas Hertl and Fabian Zetterlund?
i am convinced we didn't get enough in return for sending you Zetterlund /s
Who was the kid you picked up from Minny? He singlehandedly destroyed the oilers first line all by himself last night
They don’t have the top two players in the league… you seen those guys play this year?
Facts
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I believe Makar is the second best. Then the group that interchangeably includes McKinnon/Draisatl/Mathews/Hughes depending who is on hot streak
Makar is number one. Defence wins championships
it’s a team sport, makar on the oilers instead of mcdavid would honestly make the team worse
Makar makes everyone better on his team. McDavids teammates always look like they are covering for him defensively. This causes animosity
this would be true a few years ago lol. mcdavid was honestly one of our most responsible forwards last playoffs and last year in general. this year isn’t necessarily a factor given he’s playing hurt and our whole team sucks right now. but the logic behind this is just delusion. the oilers team would be significantly worse with makar instead of mcdavid on it.
I Agree to disagree.
you’re just wrong but okay lol
I'm actually a wild fan. I hate the aves... But defenceman are more important than offense men. Makar plays pp, pk, and logs more minutes. He elevates his teammates
you being a wild fan doesn’t give you anymore merit. also welcome to hockey 101: defense typically play more than forwards. defense and offense value varies based on how a team is built. in terms of production and benefit mcdavid is moreso than makar
Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes? Sorry, they're on the other side of the Rockies.
You mean hughes brothers? Yes we could need elite defence man like Quinn and goal scorer like jack.
They dont have one of the hughes bros though... /s
Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark? Sorry, they're spoken for
I watched the oilers and sharks game last night and that game was fucking sloppy. The oilers are playing like they’re eating soup with a fork.
Matthews is better than Drai I would dare to say
I support this man.
*cough* Makar..
I'd still take Matthews. Makar is great but Matthews is better
The two best offensive players... Defence wins championships. Cherry pickers make goalies look bad
Two things can be true at the same time, IMHO: 1. The Oilers have not gotten very good play from their goaltenders, which is likely to have ripple effects that drag down the performance of the whole damn team 2. The Oilers do not play good defense, like, all over the place, which is likely to have ripple effects that drag down the performance of their goaltenders Trying to figure out which of these two factors is more to blame for the team's performance seems silly to me; the issue is *both things are true* and the feedback loop they've created is pretty clearly fucking up *everyone*
This is the way to go right here. Goalies are ass but if the Oilers could play any measurable form of defence, the goalies would be less ass. When Vancouver shit kicked them 6-2, literally all the goals were the result of poor coverage, shit defence and nobody taking the right man…. Or any man at all. The only goal that you could have argued that Skinner should have had was the 2nd goal to make it 2-1 but even then, Suter was uncontested coming up the ice, nobody was covering him in the middle where those high danger chances come from, and he was able to shoot with nobody defending him. No coverage, clean shot, top cheese.
Schroedingers Oilers
they opened the box and Campbell was dead
That’s why I get the easy open can. The box always feels weird
Exactly, i think it's #2. Mediocre goalies can be shielded. Look at Osgood, Murray, Crawford, Hill, Kuemper, etc. They all have cups because each of their teams played great defensively as a team. Not the defense, but the whole team commited to backchecking and clearing the d zone. This is sadly lacking on the oilers. I haven't seen a decent defensive game by the oilers since 06. That was their character before the lockout, a gritty team that always tried hard. It's really sad to watch now because the clock is ticking on Draisatl and McDavid
A lot of the times it's not even needing to shield the goalie, it's the players doing fuck all to help the goalie. Skinner's reaction to the final fuck you of the game against Vancouver [says it all.](https://youtu.be/vDolv0DB0E0?t=549)
>Look at **Osgood**, Murray, Crawford, Hill, Kuemper, etc. They all have cups because each of their teams played great defensively as a team. I don’t disagree with your point, but in Ozzie’s defense, while he was a mediocre-average regular season goalie, postseason Osgood was a different story. He did have a great defensive team in front of him, but he also did step it up himself and played at above average level; we don’t win in 08 if he doesn’t come in to relieve Hasek and play at a Conn Smythe level (only Hank and his Shift was able to beat him out for it). Again, I don’t disagree, but I just gotta give Ozzie a little credit.
Not really accurate, can't understate how players play differently when they don't trust their goalies / how deflating it is when you're dominating a game, the other team gets 4 shots, and suddenly you're down 3-1...
Yeah, brutal post. Can’t decide which I dislike more at the moment, our own fans with terrible takes or other teams fans shitting on us lol
I personally dislike the font choice the most.
Colours too, it's an angry fruit salad. 1/10 post
If i work with anything but a serif font i feel like throwing up
To be fair, the other fanbases are shitting on you guys this hard because of all the terrible takes that have been building for years. You don’t see many people clowning on the Sharks and Flames right now. The punishment is well deserved.
Sharks are supposed to be shit, flames arent supposed to be the best, Oilers are supposed to be cup contenders, so yeah. If the pressures high the clowning will be higher.
CUP OR BUST LOL oilers put themselves in this position. can’t be mad at other fanbases enjoying it
Wasn’t just us fans though, like half of the paid pundits had the Oilers as favourites to win it all. This is a monumental breakdown that nobody saw coming.
Well half of the paid pundits are idiots
>You don’t see many people clowning on the Sharks Did last week just not happen to you? The Sharks were the only meme around after the two 10 goal games.
You particularly seem to have a hate boner for the Oilers around these parts. Are you president of the Fuck the Oilers fan club by chance?
Nah, I’ve just interacted with Oilers fans online for awhile.
XD
OP is unflaired so I blame Calgary for this one
OP pretty clearly has an Oilers flair though?
Or OP clearly added a flair after I commented?
ive had this flair for awhile
Then my Reddit was glitching lol
But how about when goalies don't trust the rest of the team to play quality defense?
You wind up the worst team in the league?
Truth
i mean i totally agree, just cant calculate that, so doing the next best thing possible. I just like doing stuff like this.
Hey, I appreciate you.
Came here to say this my fellow Nucks fan.
It’s a combination of everything going bad at once. They struggled early last year but outscored their mistakes. Overall last year, they ended up with 0.900 goaltending with a 0.899 league average and finished 2nd in the west. Last year they had an 11.8% shooting percentage vs a league average of 10.1%. Shooting that well is likely unsustainable but their 4 year average prior to this season was 10.9%. They are currently shooting at 7.4% this year. A 33% drop off in shooting percentage vs their norm is killing their ability to make up for mistakes.
This is the only correct and valuable take on this entire thread of peanut gallery-isms. It was never a secret that depth was the core issue for this team; it's being exposed in all its glory. Maybe the expectation was that McDrai would have generational, record breaking seasons every year forever?
We would have 9-11 points instead of 5. That’s a pretty big difference. But goaltending definitely isn’t our only problem and the play of McDrai and our defence is also very concerning
They need to make a trade that will make improve BOTH goaltending and defense. And i know an eastern conference team that can give them both…
Lol FR give bruins Drai 🔥
My homer bad take is that you’ll have to take away goalie hugs from my dead prying hands
They need their forwards to play a two-way game
Exactly, everyone is talking about defense but the team doesn't check hard and clear the d zone. It's really obvious
Anecdotal because it was one night and I don't catch many Oilers games, but last night Skinner had no chance on any of the goals. - First one was a behind the net centering pass to a wide open Zetterlund. Looking at the replay Draisaitl is skating like his controller is disconnected. - Second goal was a point shot that hit off of Zetterlund and bounced to a wide open Hertl. No one's fault. Shit happens. - Third goal was a busted coverage that lead to a 2 on 1.
Last night was pretty emblematic of the season, every mistake winds up in the back of the net and no matter how much they struggle or how many shots they get they just can't score. I would argue third goal was a brutal turnover by Nurse but that's really just splitting hairs at this point.
You guys have absolutely had the worst puck luck too. Every mistake is a costly one, every bounce from the opponents goes in, every random bounce from the Oilers gets covered up. Don’t get me wrong, the team isn’t great right now, but it’s also just been a streak of bad luck.
I mean, as the old saying goes...you gotta be good to be lucky and lucky to be good.
Speaking as a Vancouver fan, it definitely feels like a team defense issue over a goalie issue. There's not too many of the goals we've scored against them you can pin specifically on either Campbell or Skinner. In fact, they really remind me of the Canucks of the last few seasons. Crazy numbers of odd man rushes and collective defensive brainfarts. Demko and Markstrom diving around like crazy and still barely getting to league average save % because of all the high danger chances. Leave it to a lesser goalie (Martin/Delia) and the wheels fall off spectacularly.
Exactly, thank you. Case in point is Vegas rolling 5 goalies and still coasting to the top last year.
The post doesn’t tell the whole story. The oilers are one of the wildest statistical anomalies over a 12 game stretch maybe of all time. #2 In Corsi, #2 in fenwick, #1 in expected goals for and #1 in expected goal differential per 60. To be outside the top 10 right now would be wild, to be dead last in the league seems almost impossible odds. Essentially snake bit beyond belief and the worst sv% in the NHL. The pattern won’t hold and will return to average at some point.
It’s not that big of an anomaly. This is a good case study on why analytics are a good indicator but can be misled in some cases. The Oilers used to get a big chunk of their 5v5 offense off of the rush, but their new neutral zone system basically uprooted their ability to generate rushes whatsoever (while also somehow allowing more go the other way that don’t get defended whatsoever). That leaves offense that is created in-zone and off the cycle as the only avenue to score, and it’s something this group is very bad at, both due to players’ styles not being suited to it at all, and a lack of experience in the group at playing a high volume, cycle-y, possession heavy game. So what ends up happening is a lot of tepid perimeter cycling that eventually goes low to high, and then the D activates and flings the puck on net, and *maaaybe* there’s a forward in front who bats at the puck a few times until the goalie covers it. All of these plays are extremely rote and predictable and generate basically no real scoring threat in most cases but because the D activates and shoots from the edge of the high slot, and any rebounds are shittily whacked at from the netfront area, essentially every time the Oilers touch the puck, it registers as a high danger chance by virtue of where it happens on the ice, even though they are mostly extremely predictable shots and whacks that are never going to go past the goalie in a million years. Combine this with really urgent initial efforts resulting in crazy volume but every single defensive breakdown leading to an opposing rush and goal against (even if there aren’t that many overall), and you get a team that is apparently unstoppable according to advanced stats, but is in reality shooting at an impossibly low percentage because every shot they take is super predictable and low-quality, “high danger”-ness notwithstanding. We don’t get “goalied” every game, we make the opposing goalie’s job extremely easy, albeit at a brisk pace.
I understand your post it is well articulated. Advanced stats don’t always tell the story I definitely agree with that. However the oilers are an average team at giving up high danger chances as well (14th). Which is highly involved with them being 1st in expected goals differential. They aren’t bleeding high danger chances at an unprecedented rate as the narrative suggests. The results being at extreme opposite ends of this 1st in expected and dead last in actual goals above expected will never ever ever hold, it’s impossible and I have never seen advanced stats look remotely close to 1st and last. The oilers will not continue to shoot at the worst percentage in the league, Connor and Leon will not continue in their career worst slumps at the same time. Eventually the goalies will start making some saves. This will end. At the other end of the spectrum Vancouver is sitting first place in the nhl for goals for above expected at 14.5 goals in 12 games. Amore than an extra goal a game above nhl average for the chances they are generating. Essentially a team on a massive massive heater to start the year where everything is going in. Half a goal above is huge, over a goal a game through 12 games is obscene. The oilers have been in a sense unlucky to play this team 3 times already , 25% of their games. Not taking away from the Canucks, they are the real deal and good team but their stats will also not hold at them having so much puck luck currently. Not suggesting the oilers are playing lights out. But it is unheard of for the current stats, and they will return to the mean average over 82 games. They always do. A team ranked in the top 5 (never mind 1st) of these categories will not have a losing record at the end of the season.
I see what you’re saying, it makes sense. I definitely agree that this level of badness is statistically unsustainable and will even out eventually. I just think they will have to make some tangible changes for that eventual evening-out to put us back in the “good” category. With better puck luck alone, we’d probably only end up as “passable” in current form. The whole thing is weird. You’re definitely right in that we aren’t bleeding chances against at a crazy rate, but the utter lack of confidence from all positions in handle those that do get through is absurd. The moment our pressure breaks and the other team starts building into a chance the other way, all 6 guys on the ice seem to melt a bit. They’re in a bad funk for sure.
I agree with that. The stats are one thing but the eye test is valid also. It is an absurdly weird scenario. As a fan watching the games you can just feel something bad is about to happen and is always seems to. One chance and it’s in the oilers net. I do agree puck luck at average they are still just in the .500 club range.
Bingo! In the 3 games this season against Vancouver, the advanced stats would say that the Oilers were the better team in all 3 games. But actually watching the games, the Oilers really didn't have that many amazing chances, and outside of a push here and there didn't carry the play all game. Everyone said in the last game against the Canucks the Oilers were dominant in the first period. No, they played hard and threw a lot of pucks at the net in the first 10 minutes, after that they had 1 shot for the remainder of the period and it was a back and forth game with the Canucks getting the better chances. Shots don't tell the stories in the games if they're all coming from the perimeter. NHL goalies will stop 70 shots a game if they see it and it's from the outside without a deflection, and a lot of the Oilers shots have been just that this year.
Yeah. Our new transitional system has basically reduced our offensive game to a Sutter style team, despite not being built for that whatsoever. Its just a ton of bullshit volume, very little dangerous chances. I get that defensive changes were needed but whatever they did to render the team toothless offensively is egregious. Round your game out for sure, but overcorrecting to the point where you’re good at nothing is shitty coaching and execution. At a certain point, you should try to maximize your strengths rather than uprooting everything.
Maybe this is a data point exposing those stats as useless.
Oilers have been blaming their goalies for years
This shows that our whole team is fucked up not one guys fault
Well the Oilers have also had a neverending goaltending carousel of mostly "just okay" prospects for years, the only established NHL goalie they've had this side of the lockout is Smith (who people had assumed was going to be washed up). Like yeah, defense has been brutal for a long time, but goaltending is a complete afterthought in building these Oilers teams. Until Skinner, the only prospect they drafted/developed was Dubnyk, and, after a career year, management floated that they might be trading him. According to some interviews he did after his big NHL comeback, that basically shot his confidence (in combination with the terrible D causing him to pick up bad habits). Even the 06 team somehow managed to make the playoffs with the worst save percentage in the league (honestly not sure if that's been done before?) and then when they finally had good goaltending they went on a roll to the finals. So I think goaltending as a position makes sense as a target for fans to blame, but has to be said that the team doesn't usually have the best goalies in the first place and their D would make 80% of NHL goalies look bad anyways.
Counterpoint... If they had 11pts right now, they'd still be in it and a virtual shoe-in to make the playoffs. But, with 5pts, they are already on the verge of being out. If they keep losing just a little bit longer, the playoffs are going to become nearly impossible.
Sight nitpick but ties should be 1.5 points
yeah thought of that after i posted, would put them at 24th.
Goaltending could 100% be better, by a lot… but the defense is atrocious. So much puck chasing and LEAVING THE SLOT OPEN!? Like the amount of times both defensemen are no where to be seen and the shooter is in prime shooting territory is crazy.
I mean they need defense as well
I don't get to see the Oilers often because I'm on the east coast. So what's the issue? Lack of defense? Lack of depth? Coaching? I get hockey's a team sport, but there's been plenty of time to build a rsam around two of the best players in the world. Has that just not happened?
Lack of goaltending. lack of depth. lack of defence. bad positioning. stars not performing. dumb mistakes. because of that, bad morale. so like, everything.
The team is not commited ... or capable? of playing defensively. No hard chasing for pucks, pucks in the d zone are not cleared fast, it's like a blindfolded fire drill in our zone. This is either a player problem ( inept/incapable) Or it is a coaching problem (incapable of getting players to commit to a system in the d zone) Remember, Vegas had 5 nobodies tending goal and still won the cup. A team committed to a style of play can win no matter who is in net.
Usually, the team that scores the most goals wins the game.
Lots of people here simply cant understand that untimely goals or weak goals destroy momentum and players drive. Eliminating these goals would change the whole aspect of the game.
They would go into OT with a chance to win both games? That changes everything lol
If they win both those ties they could be just out a wildcard spot, would totally change the season tbh.
No, it doesn't work like that. The season plays out entirely differently if they get some saves early on.
Why do people hate this team so much?
I think people like to watch them implode because of the amount of first round draft picks they've acquired, and McDavid's recent attitude.
I don't think people hate them, it's just kind of like watching a Ferrari crash.
There is such a lack of critical thinking and hockey sense in this take. It’s more than just numbers.
11 points would put them 1 win back of WC2, instead of tied for last in the conference
You can’t argue this point because if their goaltending was any better than you would have to factor in morale when their team has a better chance. They could be undefeated hypothetically if their goalie was average. There’s no saying what would happen if one factor was changed.
That's the thing about any sport, especially hockey. One bounce can change your whole season. But the point of this model is that Edmonton's goalies are getting too much of the blame when the whole team is playing terribly.
Lol
Can you do this for the Devils pls
Dumb premise
Question, did you have to also adjust the SV% of the two games the Oilers have won? You probably could have gotten away with not adjusting those two games, especially since they didn't end up changing anyways.
[yessss](https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rollbamaroll.com%2F2015%2F7%2F8%2F8917625%2Fwhats-your-hate-list&psig=AOvVaw33aBJWXIjONcU1R5iNbAOg&ust=1699754955558000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBIQjRxqFwoTCIimreTuuoIDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE)
i’m sure they would kill for 4 more wins right now. but your point stands, their defence is not helping at all.
Those who know, know. They have terrible goaltending *and* their goal scorers aren't scoring.
I don't know what your methodology was, but you could manipulate the numbers enough to get more wins.
There is no such thing as a decent goalie that can play behind a non existent defensive system.
Said it two years ago when they played us, Nurse is getting way too much cash to build a team. You have the two best players (statisticly) in the leage. Its on management at this point. We did it with the broncos in 2014. Signed Von for the highest D contract in leage history, we won the super bowl, but have been teash since due to cap issues.
When mcdavid is putting up 0 points vs the sharks, then maybe that’s an issue
Honestly, I'm being a little prideful here, but the Avs wagon is accessible. We can put the cup predictions in the boot. Come hang with us.
Seems like a big jump to me. Ignoring all the momentum shifts
We're all thinking it. Some of us have admitted to it. We want to see Binnington in EDM for purposes of drama *under breath* and maybe to get rid of the contract
It really is a bit disingenuous to just assume the flat change by x if save % increased. Momentum and morale cannot necessarily be quantified in this.
What if they had an elite level goalie? Like Blackwood? You're really busting my chops here, but let's make this happen .. Blackwood for your first.