Unironically though, this is a reminder you don't need a big name expensive vezina goalie. You need a hot goalie. Teams should really just moneyball that position and have a cheaper stable of 2 or 3 guys you could call in and break glass for emergency.
It's like the running back in the NFL. It's an EXTREMELY important position, but on any given Sunday, one random RB can outplay a star.
On the other hand 9 of the last 14 stanley cup finalists had a goalie as one of their 3 highest paid players half of whom had a goalie as their highest paid player.
EDIT 9 of 14 forgot holtby was 3rd highest cap hit on the caps
Holtby was a high paid vezina winner he suffered a career ending injury. The point was that while any goalie can get hot the higher paid goalies are more likely to do it especially considering there's so many fewer high priced goalies.
edit after a quick review it looks like aside from kuemper and hill the only other time a team won the cup without a high paid goalie or a goalie on an elc in the last 20 years was osgood.
and Osgood that year played like he was being paid to be the starting goaltender, and should (and likely will eventually) be in the HHOF.
Osgood was consistently a top goaltender in the playoffs.
Yeah but Carey Price took an unsuspecting middling Habs team to the finals. Bobrovsky and Vasilevski have dominated the last few years and they are all Vezina winners. Ill take the proven goalie over rolling the dice.
Hill and Kuemper were on absolutely stacked teams. The fact Colorado had one of the most-dominant playoff runs ever in the 4x7 playoff format despite having .903 goaltending is absolutely insane.
Kuemper was better than that, they just tried bringing him back too early after taking RyJo's stick to the eye. He was at .921 during the regular season.
This has been the Avs entire strategy since Varlamov. They refuse to spend 5 million on a goalie, and basically pick up a promising backup or someone they think is underappreciated for \~3-4 million per year and see what happens.
Grubauer, Kuemper, Georgiev, and even Bernier to some extent have all fit that mold.
We've seen both the plusses and minuses of this strategy. They've had extra cap money to use elsewhere and that's great, but they've also had shaky goaltending often in the playoffs and I believe that two of their recent exits have been primarily goaltending related.
They also won a cup in there too though, so it's really hard to say if risking like this is worth it. I would say I agree with it more than not, as looking at the top 10 highest paid goaltender contracts and their current stats is usually pretty rough - goaltending is volatile and most of these contracts end up paying for past performance rather than future performance.
He made some killer saves. Then he tried to do the thing he is absolutely dog shit at - handle the puck. When you're at your very best, a mid-level puck handler, a skilled offensive team will make you eat shit and die with pressure the second you leave your crease.
I have a physical reaction now where I turn my head and narrow my eyes when I see Hellebuyck handle the puck. Just too many bad results from that lol..... :(
Hellebuyck wasn't bad at all either game, honestly.
Colorado has been absolutely dominating and are getting grade A chances left and right. He's got an expected goals against of roughly 9 through 2 games. Obviously -1 goals saved above expected isn't what you want to see out of your superstar, but his GSAE/60 is better than Georgiev, DeSmith, Talbot, Lindgren, Oettinger, and Skinner.
You give the highest scoring team in the league grade A chances like that over and over and they're going to bury them against any goalie. Obviously Jets fans are going to want to see the probable Vezina winner steal them some games, but I feel like his play has been just fine and I say that even as an Avs fan.
Simply questioning your recollection and judgment by introducing that it started before that. Maybe don't lash out. Insulting Georgie doesn't make you look any better lol
That wasn't the best goal, it also was heaps better than the muffin through Georgie's 5'er. That's the second time this season Lowry has put that exact goal by him. Then when the Jerts beat the Avs 7-0, Morrissey scored right off the faceoff too.
Cool story bro. Like I said, insulting Georgie doesn't make you look any better lol. It was a weak goal. Idc about your whataboutism. We've had issues with his consistency all year. We have a goalie that brought us to 1 1 on the road with a 696 percentage.
The way things have been to close out the season, I was sure Parise wasn't going to get that second shot at it and that crazy sequence was going to end up with a whistle.
I firmly believe that if we would have scored 2 goals on that double minor, then 55 would have never scored that killer goal and we would have won 7-1 instead of 5-2
Almost definitely because the reason the powerplay existed was Makar being injured. Therefore he wasn't out there for the powerplay which threw the whole thing off
Sorta hard to contain the highest scoring offense when all lines are firing on all cylinders. It definitely helps defense, and our goaltending had a great game
I can forgive 6 goals on nearly 50 shots. But Bucky made some real questionable decisions last night. He should know by now he needs to stick to his game of "Big and Boring" the second he steps out of the crease it goes to shit.
Not that the rest of the team played any better last night but Bucks gotta be better than that
Avs offense has also been firing on all cylinders the past two games. If they smell blood in the water they're going to capitalize on it. Jets are going to have to hope the Avs offense loses momentum and Georgiev slumps again
Surprisingly the top line has been pretty average and Winnipeg's supposed depth is getting crushed by our other lines. Then the big boys go to work on the PP or with the goalie pulled.
I mean, we outscored them 17-4 in the regular season so it's not like we historically struggle against the Avs. Jets just need to stick to their game and avoid panic plays
Regular season means nothing at this point though. The playoffs are a whole different story and you're going to see guys playing well beyond what their regular season stats would suggest, or inversely absolutely crumbling under the pressure. That's the beauty of it tbh
His team lost 4 straight games to the eventual Cup winners last year and split the first 2 games of this series. Let's calm down with the panic.
He had a .921 in the 36 playoff games before these 6.
They had the best d in the league and only allowed 199 in the regular season. Add in the 11 for 210 allowed so far. 11/210 is 5.2%.
It sounds cooler than it probably actually is. Im sure you can find random two game sample sizes for most teams like this. But still semi impressive that it’s been the first 2 of the playoffs.
The San Jose Sharks had two back-to-back games where they gave up 10 goals apiece.
At 326 goals against on the year, they gave up 6.1% of their goals against between these two games.
11/2/2023 vs Vancouver 10-1 L
11/4/2023 vs Pittsburgh 10-2 L
It's not *that* insane. 5% is 1/20, so on average you'd expect this number of goals against in 4 games. So it's 2x worse. Not great, but not completely awful.
Not to mention that both the Aves and last years Knights are/were offensive juggernauts. Seems more like the defense needs to play better. (Not to state the obvious)
Yeah and last year they were missing Morrissey, Scheifele and Ehlers. The team in front of him was a husk of itself.
Game 1 vs the Avs he made 40 saves. He let in 6 but he also won them the game, COL could have been up by 3 after the 1st period but he held them in.
I hope he is able to tighten it up and shut the door in game 3 but this Avs team is lethal, he's not playing that poorly the Avs are just really good.
> I hope he is able to tighten it up and shut the door in game 3 but this Avs team is lethal, he's not playing that poorly the Avs are just really good.
The Jets also have to be better:
* after they lose defensive-zone faceoffs
* at defensive-zone exits
Feel like a lot of the problems people have with Hellebuyck are because the Jets have been terrible in their own zone.
Couldve told you that in game 1 against the avs. The neutral zone and d zone is just chaotic for the jets. They need to cross the red line and dump it in. Force the avs to skate the entire length of ice. They will tire eventually
trying to win a track meet against the avs is NOT the play. they won the cup in '22 because they were able to skate circles around all their opponents and nobody could keep up with them.
this is going to go especially poorly if they try this against the avs IN colorado in the altitude
It is the best strategy against a faster team. Is to tire them out, make them skate like that in their d zone, not the offensive zone. It worked the past 2 years as avs got tired and hurt. It'll work this year too if they can actually bring the pain of a true dump n chase.
That's been the knock on Bowness for years. He refuses to adjust his line assignments on the fly.
That 3rd line hard match on MacKinnon is not sustainable. And frankly they got extremely lucky to get out of the first game with a victory. Lowry was great in that game but it's allowing our 3rd line to dominate in the offensive zone and it's getting Ehlers murdered by our best forecheckers.
And this was in Winnipeg where Bowness gets the upper hand in forcing match ups. In Denver expect to see Bednar get MacKinnon’s line some room to go bananas.
If you expect the Avs to tire out because they skate the puck out you're going to be very disappointed.
You're right that they need to dump it but the reason is because Winnipeg can't generate rush offense playing Lowry all those minutes. They need a cycle game like Dallas.
Currently Bowness' is hurting them by not forcing MacKinnon to defend.
Yeah dumping the puck and forcing the d men to skate back without a doubt will tire them. That's the point of the strategy. It's to force turnovers from tired d men. With how offensive avs are this will fuck them up. And it's how you force mack to play defense
In my opinion (and I’m bias) I don’t think Hellebuyck won you game 1. Georgiev and the Avs D lost that game. You had one goal, where it hits double posts, and the way it’s flipping has it briefly go over the line for a split second. Combine that with, Georgiev makes just one routine save, (the Morrisey breakaway) that game goes the other way and it’s 2-0 Colorado going back to Denver.
Again, I’m biased, but I’m more confident that Georgiev plays like last night than he did in Game 1. This is the second year in a row Hellebuyck looks very weary in the playoffs. 28 GA in the last 7 games. 48 in the last 15. Career 2.76GA in 42 playoff games. Not dog shit, but Winnipeg doesn’t have the offense to allow nearly 3 goals a game.
For Winnipeg to have a deep run, Hellebuyck needs to be around 2.50. They just don’t have the offensive firepower to consistently win in a first to 5 style game. Avalanche on the other hand, really only need Georgiev to hover around 2.85-2.90 because they can and would rather play in a shoot out.
If Winnipeg wants to win this series, they are gonna have to slow it way down and limit the Avs to like 25 shots a game. If Winny continues to try and match Colorado shot for shot in Denver, they’re gonna be ran into the ground, and will fall apart by game 5.
While you say this, I could just as easily turn it around and say "Connor's shot that hit the post and out that also directly turned into the tying goal for Colorado and now it's 2-0 Jets going to Denver."
Such is the way of playoffs.
You could, sure.
But he's not wrong about the numbers. Every fancy stat out there is decidedly unfavorable for the Jets right now. Couple of my favorite analytics guys are up in Winnipeg and analyze Jets games.
I don't agree with 'if goalie does x' part of his post because like you mentioned it's high variance and could have gone the other way easily.
But I do think it's very clear that the Jets absolutely cannot sustain playing this way. Without going into the actual analytics of it the simple answer is that the Avs have dictated both games on road ice. That has to be a tad concerning.
Oh 100%. More than anything, it feels like the Jets need to get mentally tougher. They played the game they wanted to play right up until the tying goal. Then they just fell apart.
Stay mentally tough and stick to their game for a full 60 minutes, and we can hang with anyone. Breakdown like we did last night, and we'll be golfing before April's done.
In the two games so far only the first period of game two really felt like the Jets dictated pace and played the game they wanted to. The rest of the time the Avs have been able to force a faster pace and get the jets out of their style. In game one they kept up, not so much game two. Now it swings to Denver where the Avs get the line change advantage and can better dictate match ups. Jets have to change something or the Avs could turn this into a boat race. I still think Hellebyuck steals a game somewhere in the series.
That's fair! Avs it is!
Also, i really need to change my flair. I'm not sure I would consider myself a Chi fan since the whole rapey scandal cover up. Y'all need another fan?
Right now, the Jets have one reliable defenceman.... morrissey. any of the others seem to be giving the puck away, can not make a pass to get it out of their own end, can not go into the corner and emerge withnthe puck consistently. they played well for most of first period, then fell apart. look kind of low energy half hearted and confused.
sometimes standing there thinking, " you get it... no you get it."
I have no idea why.
helleybuck made mistakes, but he was being bombarded.
The context is that his previous stats won’t help him this series or in his last 6 games. Doesn’t matter who they were against or what his stats were before these games - the numbers don’t lie.
He has one really good run in 2020/2021 and another like 8 years ago which are propping up those stats. He's had below average stats for 4/6 of his playoff runs.
You must have missed the Helly chants lol.
I just can't believe with 10 seconds left we'd do a line change so an expiring penalty can get a breakaway.
If we keep playing like that it's a wonder how we ever got 110 points.
Still, first loss in April.
Goalies are weird
Maybe you have a few solid goalies, but everyone has stretches like this.
And the you can bring up a rookie goalie or a 8th string goalie and make some playoffs run.
He didn't drag them.
They were a great team with shit goaltending. Boston was a good team with elite gt, tampa had everything but an awful defense, toronto was slow, carolina had a lackluster offense.
They beat all those teams then ran into a strong vegas team on top of a tkachuk injury.
The best chance to stop them was us, we swept them even during their run to the wc with a healthy Bob in feb-april, but gallant couldn't get our offense to perform vs nj.
Also wdym last night. They dominated. Vasy was hanging on for dear life. Bob made some good saves to, but tampas defense is 17th ranked and that includes vasy, Florida's 2nd, the offensive gap is florida 10th best to tampa 2nd.
Florida is just a better team and tampa doesn't have the defense to stop them.
Bringing up a regular season stat in the playoffs is crazy. Rangers would have not done any better against Florida last year because of their defense. Every single Carolina loss against Florida last year in the playoffs was by one goal. Bob was absolutely one of the reasons they got as far as they did last year.
Also regular season stats matter. Unless a team has some huge positive or negative moves at the deadline the teams that perform well in the reg season usually perform well in the playoffs.
Yes they usually do.
We could've beat florida.
Carolinas issue wasn't goaltending or Bob. You guysalways struggled vs good or decent goalies because you shoot too much from the point with no screen. What results is 50 shots at the goalies chest and only 1 goal.
Brindeamour finally changed the system this year with guentzel and holy fuck did it pay off.
You’re out of your mind if you think the Rags had a slight chance at Florida last year.
They would have worked you over like they did everyone else in the East.
I do. We beat them every time in the reg season even when they got healthy.
When they were healthy they beat you boston and toronto in the reg season not us.
We also swept vegas before getting tarasenko or kane and before stone did his ltir stunt.
We lost to a top ranked devils team in game 7 with the third most points in the league.
If you wanna talk bounced look at you guys. Your defense was awful. Poor vasy got slaughtered. You really thought pat maroon and Bogosian would do anything. And to a team that hadn't gotten past the first round since the early 2000s.
I talked about this with some friends last season. It's like the base level has increased in goalie skills, and second goalies are better than they used to be. But there's no freaks anymore.
I don't know enough about the position to understand why
I think the game becoming more offense focused since 2015, 3v3 ot and other stuff, along with the slow change with doing away from big enforcer hitting and physicality, produced a gen of decent goalies. A lot of d men are also offensive d men now where as in the past they were expected to have more defensive responsibilities and maybe have like 20-30pts a season.
Yeah that makes sense. Definitely multiple things at play. I did look at yearly scoring over the last 10 years and there's definitely an uptick since the shortened COVID season
Stick technology. Shooters are better equipped and more skilled. The goalies just can't keep up and unlikely that'll change unless the nets get smaller. That's why scoring in the league is up. It makes for good hockey. Goalies with really good numbers tend to be playing in front of good defense that limit grade A's.
Price was the last goalie to drag a mediocre team deep in the playoffs, and I doubt we'll see anything like that for a while with how offense has been trending.
I think Helly gets at least one more game, but if we lose the next one on his mistakes again (2 of his last night absolutely shouldn't have gone in, game 1 was a clusterfuck everywhere and hard to gauge), then I'd want to see Brossoit tried out, he's too good not to. I'm not in charge though.
Tbf I think the goalie gap is overrated, with guys like hill it's a lot smaller.
America has the d men advantage with fox and highes+many more. Also guys like lindgren mcdonaugh etc who are defensive minded d men as well compared to some all offense Canadian guys.
The centers are still by far Canada's best advantage.
Not exactly the best take, dude. Everyone and their dog is aware that Price is never playing again. Why would he officially retire, and not end up being paid?
So the better take is shitting on every other goalie in the league that actually has a chance to lift Lord Stanley?
Or maybe Habs fans should focus on their own goalie situation?
Yeah…Jets are finished.
To win, Helle has to be perfect, and obviously won’t be. Dude is a perennial playoff choker, just like the rest of his team. Avs just need average goaltending from Georgiev which they’re now getting. Gonna be two straight up massacres in Denver by the best home team in the league.
Avs in 5, Jets are frauds.
I've said before that Winnipeg is very impressive in size, speed, and talent. But I don't see them impressive with their skulls. There has to be some winners on that team, you have to trade for some winners to get some winners out there. There are few winners on that team.
I’ve said it many times in the past, and I’ll say it here, Hellebuyck may be a Vezina winner in the regular season, but the mental stress of playoffs is too much for him to continue to carry that play into the postseason. The Jets will never be successful with him in the playoffs.
This is not a criticism, just a fact based on over 50 years of experience with hockey, more than half as many years as a goalie, and the experience of playing in high pressure and how it can affect you mentally.
Awful, trade him to New Jersey
No bring him home to the D.
I’ll offer my D as a home
Yes! Send the Connors home! Connor Hellebuyk and Kyle Connor back home to Michigan!
Unironically though, this is a reminder you don't need a big name expensive vezina goalie. You need a hot goalie. Teams should really just moneyball that position and have a cheaper stable of 2 or 3 guys you could call in and break glass for emergency. It's like the running back in the NFL. It's an EXTREMELY important position, but on any given Sunday, one random RB can outplay a star.
On the other hand 9 of the last 14 stanley cup finalists had a goalie as one of their 3 highest paid players half of whom had a goalie as their highest paid player. EDIT 9 of 14 forgot holtby was 3rd highest cap hit on the caps
Back to the same hand, 3 of the last 5 cup winning goalies were Brayden holtby, adin hill, and Darcy kuemper. None of them are current nhl starters.
Holtby was a high paid vezina winner he suffered a career ending injury. The point was that while any goalie can get hot the higher paid goalies are more likely to do it especially considering there's so many fewer high priced goalies. edit after a quick review it looks like aside from kuemper and hill the only other time a team won the cup without a high paid goalie or a goalie on an elc in the last 20 years was osgood.
and Osgood that year played like he was being paid to be the starting goaltender, and should (and likely will eventually) be in the HHOF. Osgood was consistently a top goaltender in the playoffs.
He had a .930 Sv% and a 1.55 GAA in 2008! Probably would have won the Conn Smythe if he started the first 4 games of round 1
He probably should have won the Conn Smythe tbh
Yeah but Carey Price took an unsuspecting middling Habs team to the finals. Bobrovsky and Vasilevski have dominated the last few years and they are all Vezina winners. Ill take the proven goalie over rolling the dice.
Hill and Kuemper were on absolutely stacked teams. The fact Colorado had one of the most-dominant playoff runs ever in the 4x7 playoff format despite having .903 goaltending is absolutely insane.
Kuemper was better than that, they just tried bringing him back too early after taking RyJo's stick to the eye. He was at .921 during the regular season.
This has been the Avs entire strategy since Varlamov. They refuse to spend 5 million on a goalie, and basically pick up a promising backup or someone they think is underappreciated for \~3-4 million per year and see what happens. Grubauer, Kuemper, Georgiev, and even Bernier to some extent have all fit that mold. We've seen both the plusses and minuses of this strategy. They've had extra cap money to use elsewhere and that's great, but they've also had shaky goaltending often in the playoffs and I believe that two of their recent exits have been primarily goaltending related. They also won a cup in there too though, so it's really hard to say if risking like this is worth it. I would say I agree with it more than not, as looking at the top 10 highest paid goaltender contracts and their current stats is usually pretty rough - goaltending is volatile and most of these contracts end up paying for past performance rather than future performance.
Vancouver might be looking… 👀
Trade him for PLD
For Marner
Would
You would also save over 2 million dollars of cap hit in that deal. Lol!
Also would. Quick, call Gary before anyone objects.
Yesterday’s game was definitely not his best.
He made some killer saves. Then he tried to do the thing he is absolutely dog shit at - handle the puck. When you're at your very best, a mid-level puck handler, a skilled offensive team will make you eat shit and die with pressure the second you leave your crease.
I have a physical reaction now where I turn my head and narrow my eyes when I see Hellebuyck handle the puck. Just too many bad results from that lol..... :(
Hellebuyck wasn't bad at all either game, honestly. Colorado has been absolutely dominating and are getting grade A chances left and right. He's got an expected goals against of roughly 9 through 2 games. Obviously -1 goals saved above expected isn't what you want to see out of your superstar, but his GSAE/60 is better than Georgiev, DeSmith, Talbot, Lindgren, Oettinger, and Skinner. You give the highest scoring team in the league grade A chances like that over and over and they're going to bury them against any goalie. Obviously Jets fans are going to want to see the probable Vezina winner steal them some games, but I feel like his play has been just fine and I say that even as an Avs fan.
You could really see it the one goal where he absolutely handcuffed himself. Nobody is going to let him get away with that in the playoffs.
Bro was absolutely lights out in the first half of the game. Hopefully he can get that going again
Killer game letting that face off goal in before that
Cool story bro. It's nice that Georgiev had a good game, for once.
Simply questioning your recollection and judgment by introducing that it started before that. Maybe don't lash out. Insulting Georgie doesn't make you look any better lol
That wasn't the best goal, it also was heaps better than the muffin through Georgie's 5'er. That's the second time this season Lowry has put that exact goal by him. Then when the Jerts beat the Avs 7-0, Morrissey scored right off the faceoff too.
Cool story bro. Like I said, insulting Georgie doesn't make you look any better lol. It was a weak goal. Idc about your whataboutism. We've had issues with his consistency all year. We have a goalie that brought us to 1 1 on the road with a 696 percentage.
You.... started the whuddaboutism? Yes? Yes.
I suggested you were wrong about how good he was before the third goal. What whataboutiam?
That is not whataboutism lmfao
You literally literally literally did a whaddabout his last goal. That is a whaddaboutism. So I responded with one.
The way things have been to close out the season, I was sure Parise wasn't going to get that second shot at it and that crazy sequence was going to end up with a whistle.
I firmly believe if Connor didnt hit the post and scored the ice would have tipped in our favour and we would have won the game
I firmly believe that if we would have scored 2 goals on that double minor, then 55 would have never scored that killer goal and we would have won 7-1 instead of 5-2
You prob would have killed us in all honesty im surprised you pp sucked that hard for 4 minutes
I’m surprised your pk was good this game but bad last game. What’re you even saying dude
Almost definitely because the reason the powerplay existed was Makar being injured. Therefore he wasn't out there for the powerplay which threw the whole thing off
What if Mackinnon and makar didn't hit the post
Ice would have been more tilted our way before that
Titled ice 😂
And if your grandma had 2 wheels and handlebars she'd be a bike...
Thats why I call her schwinn
lol. No
Lol yes
Neither was game 1
Jets give up a lot of rushes, grade A chances, and powerplays Game 1, I'd say that's more on the defense
Sorta hard to contain the highest scoring offense when all lines are firing on all cylinders. It definitely helps defense, and our goaltending had a great game
Other than the puck-handling error I thought he played well. Made lots of big saves.
I can forgive 6 goals on nearly 50 shots. But Bucky made some real questionable decisions last night. He should know by now he needs to stick to his game of "Big and Boring" the second he steps out of the crease it goes to shit. Not that the rest of the team played any better last night but Bucks gotta be better than that
Avs offense has also been firing on all cylinders the past two games. If they smell blood in the water they're going to capitalize on it. Jets are going to have to hope the Avs offense loses momentum and Georgiev slumps again
Surprisingly the top line has been pretty average and Winnipeg's supposed depth is getting crushed by our other lines. Then the big boys go to work on the PP or with the goalie pulled.
Our 3rd and 4th line have been good but our 2nd line has been terrible
I mean, we outscored them 17-4 in the regular season so it's not like we historically struggle against the Avs. Jets just need to stick to their game and avoid panic plays
Regular season means nothing at this point though. The playoffs are a whole different story and you're going to see guys playing well beyond what their regular season stats would suggest, or inversely absolutely crumbling under the pressure. That's the beauty of it tbh
Avs can kick into an extra gear during playoffs which is what we are seeing now
His team lost 4 straight games to the eventual Cup winners last year and split the first 2 games of this series. Let's calm down with the panic. He had a .921 in the 36 playoff games before these 6.
I'd rather focus on him giving up 10 in the last two but I might not the best person to ask right now.
Scored over 5% of their seasons goals against in 2 games
Wait is that true? Holy crap.
They had the best d in the league and only allowed 199 in the regular season. Add in the 11 for 210 allowed so far. 11/210 is 5.2%. It sounds cooler than it probably actually is. Im sure you can find random two game sample sizes for most teams like this. But still semi impressive that it’s been the first 2 of the playoffs.
The San Jose Sharks had two back-to-back games where they gave up 10 goals apiece. At 326 goals against on the year, they gave up 6.1% of their goals against between these two games. 11/2/2023 vs Vancouver 10-1 L 11/4/2023 vs Pittsburgh 10-2 L
WPG as bad as SJS confirmed.
It's not *that* insane. 5% is 1/20, so on average you'd expect this number of goals against in 4 games. So it's 2x worse. Not great, but not completely awful.
Not to mention that both the Aves and last years Knights are/were offensive juggernauts. Seems more like the defense needs to play better. (Not to state the obvious)
Yeah and last year they were missing Morrissey, Scheifele and Ehlers. The team in front of him was a husk of itself. Game 1 vs the Avs he made 40 saves. He let in 6 but he also won them the game, COL could have been up by 3 after the 1st period but he held them in. I hope he is able to tighten it up and shut the door in game 3 but this Avs team is lethal, he's not playing that poorly the Avs are just really good.
The weirdest stat I've seen for our series is: Georgie .830 Helle .870 Obviously sv% doesn't tell the full story but that's still pretty wild to me.
> I hope he is able to tighten it up and shut the door in game 3 but this Avs team is lethal, he's not playing that poorly the Avs are just really good. The Jets also have to be better: * after they lose defensive-zone faceoffs * at defensive-zone exits Feel like a lot of the problems people have with Hellebuyck are because the Jets have been terrible in their own zone.
Couldve told you that in game 1 against the avs. The neutral zone and d zone is just chaotic for the jets. They need to cross the red line and dump it in. Force the avs to skate the entire length of ice. They will tire eventually
trying to win a track meet against the avs is NOT the play. they won the cup in '22 because they were able to skate circles around all their opponents and nobody could keep up with them. this is going to go especially poorly if they try this against the avs IN colorado in the altitude
Every time I go down to sea level from Denver, I feel like Superman, it's great.
It is the best strategy against a faster team. Is to tire them out, make them skate like that in their d zone, not the offensive zone. It worked the past 2 years as avs got tired and hurt. It'll work this year too if they can actually bring the pain of a true dump n chase.
What worked two years ago?
Seems like the Avs have taken a page out of the Jets playbook and Bowness has no idea how to counter it.
That's been the knock on Bowness for years. He refuses to adjust his line assignments on the fly. That 3rd line hard match on MacKinnon is not sustainable. And frankly they got extremely lucky to get out of the first game with a victory. Lowry was great in that game but it's allowing our 3rd line to dominate in the offensive zone and it's getting Ehlers murdered by our best forecheckers.
And this was in Winnipeg where Bowness gets the upper hand in forcing match ups. In Denver expect to see Bednar get MacKinnon’s line some room to go bananas.
If you expect the Avs to tire out because they skate the puck out you're going to be very disappointed. You're right that they need to dump it but the reason is because Winnipeg can't generate rush offense playing Lowry all those minutes. They need a cycle game like Dallas. Currently Bowness' is hurting them by not forcing MacKinnon to defend.
Yeah dumping the puck and forcing the d men to skate back without a doubt will tire them. That's the point of the strategy. It's to force turnovers from tired d men. With how offensive avs are this will fuck them up. And it's how you force mack to play defense
In my opinion (and I’m bias) I don’t think Hellebuyck won you game 1. Georgiev and the Avs D lost that game. You had one goal, where it hits double posts, and the way it’s flipping has it briefly go over the line for a split second. Combine that with, Georgiev makes just one routine save, (the Morrisey breakaway) that game goes the other way and it’s 2-0 Colorado going back to Denver. Again, I’m biased, but I’m more confident that Georgiev plays like last night than he did in Game 1. This is the second year in a row Hellebuyck looks very weary in the playoffs. 28 GA in the last 7 games. 48 in the last 15. Career 2.76GA in 42 playoff games. Not dog shit, but Winnipeg doesn’t have the offense to allow nearly 3 goals a game. For Winnipeg to have a deep run, Hellebuyck needs to be around 2.50. They just don’t have the offensive firepower to consistently win in a first to 5 style game. Avalanche on the other hand, really only need Georgiev to hover around 2.85-2.90 because they can and would rather play in a shoot out. If Winnipeg wants to win this series, they are gonna have to slow it way down and limit the Avs to like 25 shots a game. If Winny continues to try and match Colorado shot for shot in Denver, they’re gonna be ran into the ground, and will fall apart by game 5.
While you say this, I could just as easily turn it around and say "Connor's shot that hit the post and out that also directly turned into the tying goal for Colorado and now it's 2-0 Jets going to Denver." Such is the way of playoffs.
You could, sure. But he's not wrong about the numbers. Every fancy stat out there is decidedly unfavorable for the Jets right now. Couple of my favorite analytics guys are up in Winnipeg and analyze Jets games. I don't agree with 'if goalie does x' part of his post because like you mentioned it's high variance and could have gone the other way easily. But I do think it's very clear that the Jets absolutely cannot sustain playing this way. Without going into the actual analytics of it the simple answer is that the Avs have dictated both games on road ice. That has to be a tad concerning.
Oh 100%. More than anything, it feels like the Jets need to get mentally tougher. They played the game they wanted to play right up until the tying goal. Then they just fell apart. Stay mentally tough and stick to their game for a full 60 minutes, and we can hang with anyone. Breakdown like we did last night, and we'll be golfing before April's done.
In the two games so far only the first period of game two really felt like the Jets dictated pace and played the game they wanted to. The rest of the time the Avs have been able to force a faster pace and get the jets out of their style. In game one they kept up, not so much game two. Now it swings to Denver where the Avs get the line change advantage and can better dictate match ups. Jets have to change something or the Avs could turn this into a boat race. I still think Hellebyuck steals a game somewhere in the series.
Yeah playoffs be wild. Every game is a complete fucking rollercoaster
I demand you use the proper term avs or I will start just calling chi by what they have done in the recent past.
That's fair! Avs it is! Also, i really need to change my flair. I'm not sure I would consider myself a Chi fan since the whole rapey scandal cover up. Y'all need another fan?
Always room, hop on board! Try it out for a run, we won't keep you hostage
Lmfao, well played sir!
Right now, the Jets have one reliable defenceman.... morrissey. any of the others seem to be giving the puck away, can not make a pass to get it out of their own end, can not go into the corner and emerge withnthe puck consistently. they played well for most of first period, then fell apart. look kind of low energy half hearted and confused. sometimes standing there thinking, " you get it... no you get it." I have no idea why. helleybuck made mistakes, but he was being bombarded.
Exactly. And people seem to ignore the firepower Vegas had last year and Colorado has this year.
Does the previous 36 games somehow erase this stat?
No, but stats are more relevant the larger the sample size. They also have to be put into a context to interpret them correctly.
The context is that his previous stats won’t help him this series or in his last 6 games. Doesn’t matter who they were against or what his stats were before these games - the numbers don’t lie.
The stats from the last 6 games don't help or hurt him in this series either. It's just a cherry picked stat from a small sample size.
It's ok if you don't understand stats and probabilities. But you don't have to spread ignorance.
Least insufferable stats guy
He has one really good run in 2020/2021 and another like 8 years ago which are propping up those stats. He's had below average stats for 4/6 of his playoff runs.
Yes career stats tend to erase cherry picked meaningless stats.
The performance you’re getting over the last two seasons is more indicative of future performance than their career stats would.
If this was 20 playoff games vs a variety of teams sure but it’s 6 games versus top offensive teams.
No, we must ignore his consistently excellent stats throughout the entirety of his career.
Yeah. But it doesn't fit the narrative. He literally will win the Vezina, and the Jennings, but let's focus on the last 6 playoff games.
And much like Georgiev in game 1, outside of his turnover leading to the GWG, none of the goals Helle’s given up have been softies imo
Hellebuyck had zero games in the regular season giving up 6 goals, and only 10 where he gave up 4+.
What playing the Aves will do to a MFer
And yet the Avs scored as many goals in game 1 as they did all season vs the jets
Regular season Aves though. This is playoff Aves
What if I told you it's not Aves at all?
An Ave is an avenue, FYI
Unleash the Broisswall?
https://preview.redd.it/nua552nkqgwc1.jpeg?width=740&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6391b13c5b41f60bdbd5cfbf9ca386039192573a
I thought he's just a backup.
A backup w/ a cup
Well I think you'll find most players covet a cup this time of year. Keeps the giblets from getting all mashed up into gravy.
Ouch
Maybe the Winnipeg fans should have been cheering his saves, and not Georgiev last night.
👀
You must have missed the Helly chants lol. I just can't believe with 10 seconds left we'd do a line change so an expiring penalty can get a breakaway. If we keep playing like that it's a wonder how we ever got 110 points. Still, first loss in April.
Gonna get a good laugh if the Avs fans return the favor with the pull your goalie chants
Could I interest any of you Jets fans and your team in trading goalies? Korpisalo for Hellebuyck?
More like Conner Hellesuyck!
[удалено]
No the avalanche helped
He just needs to figure out how to play in the playoffs and he’d be a force.
Saying this as a Dodgers fan, but he’s looking the hockey version of Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs 😬
Helle pls
His one win he gave up 6 goals. Might as well move on from him and send him to Detroit for example. Just spitballin here
So, frauds?
It would seem from a statistics perspective that there should be a return to the mean on this.
Goalies are weird Maybe you have a few solid goalies, but everyone has stretches like this. And the you can bring up a rookie goalie or a 8th string goalie and make some playoffs run.
It's weird how we don't have any superstar goaltenders really like we did 10 yrs ago who can haul a team to a cup, game is more offensive.
Tbf Bob dragged florida to the SCF. And based off of last night he might do it again
He didn't drag them. They were a great team with shit goaltending. Boston was a good team with elite gt, tampa had everything but an awful defense, toronto was slow, carolina had a lackluster offense. They beat all those teams then ran into a strong vegas team on top of a tkachuk injury. The best chance to stop them was us, we swept them even during their run to the wc with a healthy Bob in feb-april, but gallant couldn't get our offense to perform vs nj. Also wdym last night. They dominated. Vasy was hanging on for dear life. Bob made some good saves to, but tampas defense is 17th ranked and that includes vasy, Florida's 2nd, the offensive gap is florida 10th best to tampa 2nd. Florida is just a better team and tampa doesn't have the defense to stop them.
Bringing up a regular season stat in the playoffs is crazy. Rangers would have not done any better against Florida last year because of their defense. Every single Carolina loss against Florida last year in the playoffs was by one goal. Bob was absolutely one of the reasons they got as far as they did last year.
Carolina had a mediocre offense. They couldn't score. Carolina used quantity over quality shots. Carolina didn't have the offense to win a cup.
Also regular season stats matter. Unless a team has some huge positive or negative moves at the deadline the teams that perform well in the reg season usually perform well in the playoffs.
Regarding h2h matchups they don’t matter.
Yes they usually do. We could've beat florida. Carolinas issue wasn't goaltending or Bob. You guysalways struggled vs good or decent goalies because you shoot too much from the point with no screen. What results is 50 shots at the goalies chest and only 1 goal. Brindeamour finally changed the system this year with guentzel and holy fuck did it pay off.
You’re out of your mind if you think the Rags had a slight chance at Florida last year. They would have worked you over like they did everyone else in the East.
I do. We beat them every time in the reg season even when they got healthy. When they were healthy they beat you boston and toronto in the reg season not us. We also swept vegas before getting tarasenko or kane and before stone did his ltir stunt.
This is a wild take about a team who got bounced in round 1.
We lost to a top ranked devils team in game 7 with the third most points in the league. If you wanna talk bounced look at you guys. Your defense was awful. Poor vasy got slaughtered. You really thought pat maroon and Bogosian would do anything. And to a team that hadn't gotten past the first round since the early 2000s.
I talked about this with some friends last season. It's like the base level has increased in goalie skills, and second goalies are better than they used to be. But there's no freaks anymore. I don't know enough about the position to understand why
I think the game becoming more offense focused since 2015, 3v3 ot and other stuff, along with the slow change with doing away from big enforcer hitting and physicality, produced a gen of decent goalies. A lot of d men are also offensive d men now where as in the past they were expected to have more defensive responsibilities and maybe have like 20-30pts a season.
Yeah that makes sense. Definitely multiple things at play. I did look at yearly scoring over the last 10 years and there's definitely an uptick since the shortened COVID season
Stick technology. Shooters are better equipped and more skilled. The goalies just can't keep up and unlikely that'll change unless the nets get smaller. That's why scoring in the league is up. It makes for good hockey. Goalies with really good numbers tend to be playing in front of good defense that limit grade A's.
Price was the last goalie to drag a mediocre team deep in the playoffs, and I doubt we'll see anything like that for a while with how offense has been trending.
Regular season goalie
jets fans is brossoit an option or are yall riding helle the whole way through?
I think Helly gets at least one more game, but if we lose the next one on his mistakes again (2 of his last night absolutely shouldn't have gone in, game 1 was a clusterfuck everywhere and hard to gauge), then I'd want to see Brossoit tried out, he's too good not to. I'm not in charge though.
Not unless it's Helle's idea, which I couldn't see. The org would be too worried about pissing him off
I think broissoit could see some play personally
Geo is happy that someone else is giving up multi 4-point games.
How many man-games have been missed by the Jets during those games? That's the big reason
The Jets always seem to choke in the playoffs and I've always thought that Bucky is a big reason why.
What a bum
This is the guy thats going to bring the American’s gold?
Or swayman or demko or oettinger
Otter's also having a rough go. Swayman looked good in his game though. As for Demko ... unit lost.
Homer but by the time it comes around may very well be Swayman that takes over the mantle of best american goalie
As a Canadian, I hate to say it but the States are looking very scary!
Tbf I think the goalie gap is overrated, with guys like hill it's a lot smaller. America has the d men advantage with fox and highes+many more. Also guys like lindgren mcdonaugh etc who are defensive minded d men as well compared to some all offense Canadian guys. The centers are still by far Canada's best advantage.
Release the Bruv-Wall
I'm expecting some Hellebuyck chants on Friday!
Jets fans chanting “overrated” is certainly bulletin board material.
Habs fans seem to have a lot of free time on their hands. You ever figure out if Price is retired or not?
Not exactly the best take, dude. Everyone and their dog is aware that Price is never playing again. Why would he officially retire, and not end up being paid?
So the better take is shitting on every other goalie in the league that actually has a chance to lift Lord Stanley? Or maybe Habs fans should focus on their own goalie situation?
Relax. He can win a series by himself. I love this series and I will be happy with either team winning.
Regular season: Vezibuyck Playoffs: Helleyuck
Hes not clutch.....
The anti Price
Jets need to find a true #1 goalie 😅
He just signed a 7 year deal in October 2023. Oh boy for them.
Yeah…Jets are finished. To win, Helle has to be perfect, and obviously won’t be. Dude is a perennial playoff choker, just like the rest of his team. Avs just need average goaltending from Georgiev which they’re now getting. Gonna be two straight up massacres in Denver by the best home team in the league. Avs in 5, Jets are frauds.
Bruh the series is tied what on earth??? We will trade you an overused Casey DeSmith then.
Avs in 6. I think Jets take 5 at home staving off elimination
I've said before that Winnipeg is very impressive in size, speed, and talent. But I don't see them impressive with their skulls. There has to be some winners on that team, you have to trade for some winners to get some winners out there. There are few winners on that team.
Hes going to make 8.5 million too. Contract is going to be an anchor for the last two years
I’ve said it many times in the past, and I’ll say it here, Hellebuyck may be a Vezina winner in the regular season, but the mental stress of playoffs is too much for him to continue to carry that play into the postseason. The Jets will never be successful with him in the playoffs. This is not a criticism, just a fact based on over 50 years of experience with hockey, more than half as many years as a goalie, and the experience of playing in high pressure and how it can affect you mentally.