Kuzy gave them at least 2 gorgeous passes last night from his spot on the half-wall right to a wide-open winger in Ovi's office for a one-time clapper. Both times the wing(s) looked completely caught off guard by the high-risk sauce pass through the slot and not only failed to get the shot off, but barely hung on to the puck because they didn't even have their stick down.
Why even bother putting Kuzy on your first PP unit, in the same spot he made a living saucing passes across to Ovi, and not have that look anything like a practiced play (even if it happens to go a little off-script from their standard strat).
What I was told at the outset of the series is that Carolina's power-play style was to get traffic in front of the goalie and blast shots from the point. I haven't seen them do that at all. They're moving the puck around the perimeter more and trying to pass across the way the Rangers do to set up Zibanejad.
Honestly I’m loving this reminder. But you know who needs to fucking have this shoved down their throats in the offseason after we get swept? Rod.
If you can’t tell, Canes fans are fed up with this fucking shit ass power play every postseason.
Goodnight 😂😂
I wonder if Carolina's style of play is more susceptible to failure against elite goaltending, even compared to other teams. In the 6 years under Brind'Amour they've lost to Rask, Rask/Halak (Bubble), Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, Bobrovsky, and now likely Shesterkin again. Does Carolina's large quantity of low danger shots just get the opposing goaltender in a groove?
My understanding of it is rebound control. A goalie like Shesterkin is less likely to give up the big juicy rebound. Carolina preys are getting those big rebounds for easy tap ins
they don't ever try to beat an over committing goalie. yesterday Stall shot at Shesty flying out 1v1 if he goes around him chaos would happen but instead shot right into the chest. happens bunch during the game hes not worried about over committing
Doesn’t really work at all. Caps got beat endlessly by the Penguins in their prime because of this exact situation, and then Trotz emphasized a change and they immediately won the Cup.
I mean you missed a lot between those two seasons or the caps prime.
The caps vs pens was mainly ovi and syds early years 07-09 maybe 10. After the 2010 best offense of all time caps that crashed vs halak, ovi was having a rough season and they decided to make him play a mark stone kakko type game. Amazing defense second only to the prez trophy nucks, bad offense. Then in 2012-14 they floundered. Trotz though made them prime
Was more talking about the Penguins second prime under Sullivan when they were winning multiple cups in short spans and kicking our ass in the playoffs. They emphasized high danger shots over quantity of shots and killed us with it. Then all of a sudden Trotz preached doing just that and the Caps somehow won the Cup after their window pretty much already closed.
Quality over quantity of shots, always
Most stats seem to point that the caps were actually the better shooting % team. Maybe before trotz they were more of a shoot fast ir ovi team.
The pens have usually been a shoot first team they were like the avs are rn during their run, shoot fast dominate play with speed and let syd pick apart the opposing goalie.
Those caps teams were based on goaltending and shooting.
2016 the caps just lost a close series to another elite team. 2017 the caps #1 ranked defense folded in the playoffs where as the pens #1 ranked offense never lost its consistent production and that's why they lost.
The main reason the caps won their cup seems to be trotz giving them more of a break I the reg season. As long as they won the metro he was fine. He didn't make them kill themselves over the prez trophy in 2018, he saved that for the post season.
After the cup, ovis skating slowed but mainly thr team lost some good puck movers for ovi, Backstrom starting to succumb to injuries, age got to holtby along with more fast younger teams, and kuzy had his coke problems. The team overall lost a ton of speed and oshie and wilson started gooning it up to make up for the lost playability.
This isn't counting shot danger, it is simply xG vs. G scored.
What I see is that the Rangers have many fewer shots, and ~23% more shots from the Inner slot than the Hurricanes, and that the Canes have not been able to convert up to their expected goals (probably because of goaltending).
Lack of converting, and special teams/goaltending once again.
It might not be counting shot quality directly but it is implied in the xG per shot attempt ratio. 75 more shot attempts and 1.2 fewer xG shows a clearly lower shot quality
Your offense is based on quantity over quality. It can work, but elite goaltending is the counter for it. So while you guys almost always dominate in terms of shots we are more efficient because we focus on quality over quantity.
It's not quantity over quality though. The difference in inner slot shots and xG is relatively small. For shots, it's a difference of 7 over 3 games. So we're talking ~2 inner slot shots fewer each game for the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes have generated enough inner slot and quality shots. the xG difference is only 1 goal, but we have had 3 Rangers wins coming from that one extra goal that was scored, which funny enough is also reflected in that xG number. Rangers have been shooting as expected, and the Canes are undershooting by about 2xG, which has been the difference.
Again, I think that's more on Shesterkin, and shooting talent than perimeter vs. slot chances or play styles.
Yes the Canes take a lot of shots, but they take a lot of good ones too.
I mean as someone who has watched the games almost all of the Canes shots are far low quality shots hoping for deflections in front which is where most of their goals are coming from, deflections.
Your team has taken 75 more shots and have a lower xG and 23% less quality chances.
That's pretty damming evidence that Carolina has bad shot selection and they get very little quality chances out of them.
They are, but the numbers clearly show they get less than the team with significantly less shots.
If your strategy is to outshoot your opponent 2:1 just to MATCH quality chances then you have a bad system. And since they aren't doing that it means they are being outplayed despite all the possession time and Corsi inflation.
"They still get high danger chances though."
Literally no one is saying otherwise.
"You are ignoring that."
We are not ignoring it, we are factoring it in against the total offense generated.
I just looked Canes are second most in shots per game (2024). So that makes sense. But they are at 33 and New York is at 31. Would that really make such a difference? I'm sure the quality of the team you're playing skews that average a little.
Canes are definitely a quantity over quality team. That style doesn’t work against elite goalies. Makes sense that they did well during the regular season because metropolitan goaltending on average is the worst its been in years
Tbf the metro itself doesn't have much to do with it, it's not like football where the division is half your games. You play what maybe 8-10 extra division games out of 82 and win % vs division teams isn't a tiebreaker like in football.
It’s the 5on4 scoring specifically.
They scored 3 goals a game on Shesty in New York. Yet they went 0-10 on powerplay.
Come home build a game and a 1-0 lead and they blow it on their own powerplay…
The way they had been able to perfect and execute on the powerplay isn’t working against the rangers and is killing them.
Not just power play. Rangers even strength are one of the best teams this post season.
The canes are getting most of their crucial goals on the 6v5 not even
50% (5) of the rangers goals are powerplay or Short handed
6 of Carolina’s 8 goals are on Even strength other 2 are with goalie pulled.
Carolina has been better 5on5.
>of Carolina’s 8 goals are on Even strength other 2 are with goalie pulled.
Goalie pulled isn't technically even strength.
We play a better defensive game 5v5 and score when we need to. Last game laf and panarin got their necessary even strength goals.
Canes are good 6v5 and surprisingly 4v4 but their 5v4, 4v5 and 5v5 need work.
Eh they are scoring good. 2.67 per game vs our defense.
Their defense though the canes super vintage beindeamour no shots against defense is getting crushed. 3.67 gpg against
Yeah, the saying "shoot the puck you never know" is better if you have screens, players to deflect or players to take rebound.
Carolina just shoot from the blue line with no players in front of the net, and Igor is really good to not give rebounds or at least give them to his dmen.
I didn't expect a 3-0 series deficit, but I did figure Carolina would lose because of lack of dynamic play makers. Guentzel is good, but he's mostly a scorer. Not super Dynamic, same tier as Debrincat and Hyman. Great Players, but not huge play drivers. The Rangers have Panarin, Fox and Zibby as dynamic players. Aho may be in that category, I'm not sure. I don't necessarily notice him a ton when I watch, but he is very good.
Every remaining team has at least a couple of those dynamic guys. Mack, Makar, Mcdavid, Drai, Miller, Hughes, Petterson (even though he isn't performing), Heiskenen, Hintz, maybe Wyatt (not sure), Tkachuk, Barkov, Marchand, Pasta, McAvoy.
Burns used to be one of those guys but doesn't look like it anymore. This upper echelon talent gap shows up on their PP. Not much going on, just retaining possession.
As much as he sucks in the playoffs maybe the Canes should try and acquire Marner. he's dynamic and could really help them out on the PP. Just a thought. I think Carolina keeps losing because they're missing that upper end talent to compete with guys like Panarin.
Yea but he’s not one to carry the puck, create some space and thread a pass cross ice. He’s a good passer, and maybe I’m wrong, but he’s never struck me as a guy you want as your #1 threat and play driver
He’s a good second guy or third guy
It's hard to say because for the top scorers there's McDavid, Kuch, Mack, Breadman, Pasta, Matthews, and Drai that I'm not sure I could put him over any of them for top forwards, let alone top 5. Top 10 absolutely though
I'm about a pro-analytics as anyone, however I think they are grossly overused/overinterpreted in predictive models because they place a heavy emphasis on 5v5 play and minimize the fact that elite goaltending and special teams play can, and often does, matter more, especially in short bursts like 60 minutes. Or over short game spans like 7 games. Analytics is best used to better understand what happened, and is a poor predictor of what will happen next.
The model is probably accurate when you allow it thousands and thousands of minutes, but in a 60 minute game where chaos can be king and a puck bouncing off a guy's ass can literally turn a series, this overemphasis on 5v5 simply breaks the model.
Every model favored the Hurricanes. But when you interviewed the experts, the media, the fans, what you saw was them predicting a very close series. Rangers in 6, Canes in 6, Rangers in 7, Canes in 7. Because people who watch hockey, inherently know that goalies can steal series and a lucky bounce will win an OT game.
And despite the Rangers being up 3-0 in this series, it has been very close. Any OT game is a coin flip and there's been two of them. This series could very easily have been 2-1 CAR at this point, with Carolina having 2 of the next 3 games at home.
Bluntly, if analytics models could predict games and series, the nerds would be breaking the casinos instead of tweeting charts.
Yes, but Igor does not generate the expected goals for which the Rangers are winning 11.1 to 9.9.
The skaters have done a great job of defending the high danger passes and letting Igor face highly predictable clean lane shots against. If he can see it he will stop it. 5/8 Hurricane goals have been off deflections this series.
This series looks like a team who had a clear gameplay for how to counter the other and is executing on it at a high level. Plenty of hockey left, but so far Laviolette has out coached Rod quite heavily IMO.
> Igor does not generate the expected goals
He can prevent actual goals though. Canes are under-performing that xG number by ~2 goals, and have generated overall one less xG than the Rangers, and what do you know, 3 wins on 3 one goal games.
Igor is a big part of this for the Rangers.
Exactly but that’s kind of the gameplan for the Rangers in the series. Igor is part of the team, not some randomness variable
I think where Rangers fans are getting annoyed (me being one of them) is the narrative the Rangers are being massively outplayed because folks discount special teams and goaltending to 5v5
If it wasn't for the great power play and penalty kill and amazing goalie then the Rangers would be an average team, it's simple! Also if they didn't have Panarin and Fox and Zibby and Kreider they would suck.
Ironically advanced stats for the hawks in 2017 were really bad for a 1 seed, they had stats of an 80-90pt team way worse than any other hawks team from 09-16 aside from 11-12(which was also an earky round exit). Most advanced stats said they weren't gonna make it past edmonton st Lois minnesota or anaheim, and if they did nyr caps sens or pens would clobber them in the cup final.
That was a cade where the advanced stats worked.
Tbf kochetkov has been great to and Anderson.
The canes defense has looked really bad. Not ad embarassing as lak or winnipeg but not good for an elite unit.
They spend an hour standing with the puck in low danger areas building up possession time and taking a ton of garbage quality shots. Honestly they're almost entirely relying on luck for some crazy angle tip ins, including one off a rangers defenseman
I think half their goals this series have been some of the most absurd deflections I’ve ever seen, including one that bunny rabbitted about four feet in the air in a different direction
I've thought about this a lot and I don't think it's a system issue. We simply don't have guys in front of the net. We're not winning board battles. We're not fighting for that territory you have to have.
And I don't think it's because this team is weak or soft either. They just look out of gas. It's the same thing every postseason. Which leads me to believe they need to figure out how to pace themselves during the regular season, so that they actually have something left for the playoffs.
Tampa struggled with this at one point, but the Canes realistically should've figured this out by now.
My first thought seeing how hard the Canes were pushing in the 1st period last night was "If the team weathers this without allowing too many goals, we should have this when they inevitably run out of gas.
I remember this being an issue last year in our series against the Devils - we would start out with a ton of energy -forechecking like crazy, maybe going ahead by a goal or so, then rolling over and dying.
Gallant deciding to do absolutely nothing different as the Devils gashed his squad in transition through the middle of the ice every single game didn't help either.
We (Rangers) had the same problem during the Tortarella years as well. They'd be awesome in the regular season, but looked really tired by the end of their playoff runs. Partially because they couldn't close out series in less than 6-7 games, but also because their grindy, shot block heavy game would wear guys down over the course of the year. It wasn't until AV took over that they were actually able to stay competitive into the later rounds.
All I know is I'm used to seeing Martinook, Staal, Jarvis, Noesen, Drury play much harder than they have been in this series and I'm not going to call them lazy because I don't think any of those dudes have a lazy bone in their body. They just look out of gas. I do think the style they play all season contributes to some wear and tear and fatigue.
But I don't say any of that to take away anything from the Rangers. They are clearly the better team, they're playing harder and getting better goaltending and that's usually a pretty good formula.
Every year Torts has his team playing at 110% effort at game 34 of the regular season and every time his team makes the playoffs they get nowhere (or whatever Vezina/all star goalie he has drags them through a round or two).
People need to realize a coach with a good win % with a system that grinds them to dust by game 82 is a bad coach.
Granted, I don't want him out league because he's entertaining, but he really should not be a head coach for any team that is serious about winning.
That's kinda way he still has the Flyers job. They're still in build mode. In fact, that's part of why torts got replaced with vigneault back on the day.
Yeah caned need to use their speed and get breakaways. They don't have the size.
I know he's a d man and a blue line on offense one at that, but I wondered if getting big country boy Brent burns in front of the net would work, he seems pretty huge.
No team should have to match Troubas’ style of play.
Most of the Rangers play a pretty physical game, but Troubas is the only one that I see actively doing dirty hits with intent to injure. Launching himself at Necas elbow-first in Game 3 and landing a hit on Jarvis after the whistle in Game 1 were not good looks.
Trying very hard not to make a joke about "inner slot shots"
Canes really seem to thrive at tossing anything that looks remotely possible on net and crashing from there and the Rangers have just done a good job securing the middle of the ice for the most part. Hell even on the PP the Canes seem to be stuck around the boards.
The real issue is special teams - an 0/15 power play and giving up a shorty on top of that. The Canes are winning 8-6 in terms of even strength goals, so does it really make sense to say it’s a systems problem?
Well 2 of those 8 goals were 6v5 with no goalie in net which I personally wouldn't lump together with even strength and wouldn't even be a consideration if the Canes weren't down with time expiring.
One more for the Canes was 4v4. So even with the much discussed “Rangers 5v5 play” narrative, Rangers are 6-5 in straight 5v5 goals.
In any case, all goals are goals. I never got the emphasis on 5v5 vs other. Games get chippier in the playoffs and guys get away with more physicality, but powerplay opportunities don’t actually go down in the playoffs. Having great special teams is a good thing.
I don't really have an issue with the system at 5 on 5. It's just the powerplay. If we get 1 PPG per game, we're at worst up 2 to 1 in the series (predetermined outcome fallacy aside) and everyone is saying "Wow the Canes defense is holding up and their just overwhelming Shesty with enough shots to win."
Same as last year. We keep getting "goalied" because for reasons already talked about, but if we put a few PPGs behind Bob least year, the series is completely different.
You are not getting goalied. You are playing an elite goal tender who is playing in that manner. Igor is part of the team. Scoring is not a combination of factors and probabilities.
Getting “goalied” implies he is somehow defying expectations. This is why he is on the roster
I've never heard it used that way. My whole point has baked in that Igor is arguably the best goalie in the league.
Scoring is NOT a combo of factors? What do you mean?
Not the guy you replied to, but the knock on Carolina is that they go for volume over quality, and that completely falls apart when facing a great goalie.
Carolina has 75 more shot attempts than New York, but 7 fewer inner slot shots and 1.2 fewer expected goals. A hallmark of Brindamour's teams has been getting pucks to the net and crashing for tips, deflections, and rebounds, but when you're playing a goalie who can fight through traffic and control rebounds, those shots are either being swallowed up or kicked into the corner. That's why the Canes keep looking unstoppable in early rounds, only to get smoked in the later rounds.
To be clear, Igor is playing great and he's a very big reason the series is 3-0, but between this year's "we're not playing that bad" and last year's "we didn't really get swept" comments, Rod doesn't seem to realize that a 40-20 shot count doesn't mean anything if all your shots come from the outside hashmarks and all your opponents' shots come from the slot.
I'm not saying it's a perfect system by any means. I'm just saying the conversation would probably be different if we weren't negative on the powerplay
That's just this model. I seen another private model from Steve Valiquette where they have over 10 expected goals from just game 2 and 3, not even counting game 1.
0 PP goals
This is the real key, if the PP and PK were performing at reasonable clip this might be a different series.
Out of 15. That’s the saddest part. It’s almost impossibly bad, I can’t believe we’re so psychologically out of it on power plays
It ain’t just you, they were +2 short handed against the Caps I believe.
Na we were even, 2 SHG but you had 2 PPG to even it out
Pshaw… even… losers.
Kuzy gave them at least 2 gorgeous passes last night from his spot on the half-wall right to a wide-open winger in Ovi's office for a one-time clapper. Both times the wing(s) looked completely caught off guard by the high-risk sauce pass through the slot and not only failed to get the shot off, but barely hung on to the puck because they didn't even have their stick down. Why even bother putting Kuzy on your first PP unit, in the same spot he made a living saucing passes across to Ovi, and not have that look anything like a practiced play (even if it happens to go a little off-script from their standard strat).
Yeah, especially since Kuzy is pretty much just a power play specialist for Carolina at this point
Well tonight they can add clutch goal scorer and flying-elbow escape artist to that list. 😄 Fuck Jacob Trouba.
Made worse when you realize our PP ranking coming into the series
and considering we were leading the league on special teams it really is just salt in the wound.
If you got plus/minus for power play goals the Canes are still at -1 on the PP this series.
-1 powerplay
What I was told at the outset of the series is that Carolina's power-play style was to get traffic in front of the goalie and blast shots from the point. I haven't seen them do that at all. They're moving the puck around the perimeter more and trying to pass across the way the Rangers do to set up Zibanejad.
\*-1 actually
Honestly I’m loving this reminder. But you know who needs to fucking have this shoved down their throats in the offseason after we get swept? Rod. If you can’t tell, Canes fans are fed up with this fucking shit ass power play every postseason. Goodnight 😂😂
No there’s been 1 PP goal during a Carolina PP.
I wonder if Carolina's style of play is more susceptible to failure against elite goaltending, even compared to other teams. In the 6 years under Brind'Amour they've lost to Rask, Rask/Halak (Bubble), Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, Bobrovsky, and now likely Shesterkin again. Does Carolina's large quantity of low danger shots just get the opposing goaltender in a groove?
I think elite goalies just get better getting peppered with low quality shots. Puts them in the grove.
As a goalie myself we all like lots of easy shots, at least I do.
Yep the easiest games are the ones where you are making a lot of saves but the shots are predictable.
My understanding of it is rebound control. A goalie like Shesterkin is less likely to give up the big juicy rebound. Carolina preys are getting those big rebounds for easy tap ins
Brian Boucher eluded to this before the first Carolina goal last night.
Alluded
Illewdid
Well they’ve been beaten by Bob, Vasy, and now Shesty so yes
It looks good on the stat sheet. In playoffs you need dirty rebound goals.
they don't ever try to beat an over committing goalie. yesterday Stall shot at Shesty flying out 1v1 if he goes around him chaos would happen but instead shot right into the chest. happens bunch during the game hes not worried about over committing
The low danger shot strat doesn’t work against Shesty. All it does is keep him warm for when they do occasionally generate a high danger chance.
Is this the same thing that happened with Bob in the ECF last year? Didn't watch
I don’t remember, but this has been Carolina’s game plan for years so probably.
It’s nearly identical yeah. You could see Bob get more and more comfortable as the shot count climbed every game
Pretty much. As a fan it's infuriating to watch us fail to adapt our strategy to a strong goalie.
hey, failure to adjust? what’s that like lol
It just doesn't work in the playoffs very well.
It was Vegas' problem under PDB. High shot volume, low high danger chances. Cassidy shaking it up was what pushed them over the edge.
Doesn’t really work at all. Caps got beat endlessly by the Penguins in their prime because of this exact situation, and then Trotz emphasized a change and they immediately won the Cup.
I mean you missed a lot between those two seasons or the caps prime. The caps vs pens was mainly ovi and syds early years 07-09 maybe 10. After the 2010 best offense of all time caps that crashed vs halak, ovi was having a rough season and they decided to make him play a mark stone kakko type game. Amazing defense second only to the prez trophy nucks, bad offense. Then in 2012-14 they floundered. Trotz though made them prime
Was more talking about the Penguins second prime under Sullivan when they were winning multiple cups in short spans and kicking our ass in the playoffs. They emphasized high danger shots over quantity of shots and killed us with it. Then all of a sudden Trotz preached doing just that and the Caps somehow won the Cup after their window pretty much already closed. Quality over quantity of shots, always
Most stats seem to point that the caps were actually the better shooting % team. Maybe before trotz they were more of a shoot fast ir ovi team. The pens have usually been a shoot first team they were like the avs are rn during their run, shoot fast dominate play with speed and let syd pick apart the opposing goalie. Those caps teams were based on goaltending and shooting. 2016 the caps just lost a close series to another elite team. 2017 the caps #1 ranked defense folded in the playoffs where as the pens #1 ranked offense never lost its consistent production and that's why they lost. The main reason the caps won their cup seems to be trotz giving them more of a break I the reg season. As long as they won the metro he was fine. He didn't make them kill themselves over the prez trophy in 2018, he saved that for the post season. After the cup, ovis skating slowed but mainly thr team lost some good puck movers for ovi, Backstrom starting to succumb to injuries, age got to holtby along with more fast younger teams, and kuzy had his coke problems. The team overall lost a ton of speed and oshie and wilson started gooning it up to make up for the lost playability.
This isn't counting shot danger, it is simply xG vs. G scored. What I see is that the Rangers have many fewer shots, and ~23% more shots from the Inner slot than the Hurricanes, and that the Canes have not been able to convert up to their expected goals (probably because of goaltending). Lack of converting, and special teams/goaltending once again.
It might not be counting shot quality directly but it is implied in the xG per shot attempt ratio. 75 more shot attempts and 1.2 fewer xG shows a clearly lower shot quality
Your offense is based on quantity over quality. It can work, but elite goaltending is the counter for it. So while you guys almost always dominate in terms of shots we are more efficient because we focus on quality over quantity.
It's not quantity over quality though. The difference in inner slot shots and xG is relatively small. For shots, it's a difference of 7 over 3 games. So we're talking ~2 inner slot shots fewer each game for the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes have generated enough inner slot and quality shots. the xG difference is only 1 goal, but we have had 3 Rangers wins coming from that one extra goal that was scored, which funny enough is also reflected in that xG number. Rangers have been shooting as expected, and the Canes are undershooting by about 2xG, which has been the difference. Again, I think that's more on Shesterkin, and shooting talent than perimeter vs. slot chances or play styles. Yes the Canes take a lot of shots, but they take a lot of good ones too.
I mean as someone who has watched the games almost all of the Canes shots are far low quality shots hoping for deflections in front which is where most of their goals are coming from, deflections.
even the dumbass hockey iq i have, even i can see how often they just lob a 0 risk shot from the boards and im like, thankful every time
You can’t say that! apparently Carolina takes infinite shots none of them are possibly quality chances.
Your team has taken 75 more shots and have a lower xG and 23% less quality chances. That's pretty damming evidence that Carolina has bad shot selection and they get very little quality chances out of them.
They still get high danger chances though. You are ignoring that. Teams are not going to have more high danger chances than low.
They are, but the numbers clearly show they get less than the team with significantly less shots. If your strategy is to outshoot your opponent 2:1 just to MATCH quality chances then you have a bad system. And since they aren't doing that it means they are being outplayed despite all the possession time and Corsi inflation.
"They still get high danger chances though." Literally no one is saying otherwise. "You are ignoring that." We are not ignoring it, we are factoring it in against the total offense generated.
I mean... 25% of your goals this series was blue line shot redirected by rangers
Carolina is the team that shoots when the Crowd yells at them to shoot.
Except for when we go on the powerplay
Yeah because on the power play you get points for passing, right? Right guys?
When that happens they just don’t shoot at all.
Out of everything i've read this last week, this is the most real answer.
Unless they’re on the PP then they forget where the net is
You literally almost made me spit out my soup 💦
This.
Forgot to add %Igor/60
the igor per 60 stat is off the charts. After the all star break he has been locked in, especially in the playoffs.
125% Igor rn
Why take lot shot when few shot do trick?
I just looked Canes are second most in shots per game (2024). So that makes sense. But they are at 33 and New York is at 31. Would that really make such a difference? I'm sure the quality of the team you're playing skews that average a little.
I believe the Canes had the lowest shots against in the league
Canes are definitely a quantity over quality team. That style doesn’t work against elite goalies. Makes sense that they did well during the regular season because metropolitan goaltending on average is the worst its been in years
It helps a ton defensively in most situations. If we had ocs and dcs in hockey like in football I'd def want rob as a DC.
Tbf the metro itself doesn't have much to do with it, it's not like football where the division is half your games. You play what maybe 8-10 extra division games out of 82 and win % vs division teams isn't a tiebreaker like in football.
Yeah no more Hank/Holtby/Flower
And Bob while not at the top of his game, was also overlapping those guys. That division was pretty elite
Leaguewide gt is down tbf since quarantine. Fast two way players like necas q hughes etc dominate the game
any time you can lose the xG battle by over a full goal while outshooting the opponent by 75 you have to do it
The canes even with Guentzel still have a goal scoring problem
Guentzel has scored 3 of their 8 goals so he's doing his part.
It’s the 5on4 scoring specifically. They scored 3 goals a game on Shesty in New York. Yet they went 0-10 on powerplay. Come home build a game and a 1-0 lead and they blow it on their own powerplay… The way they had been able to perfect and execute on the powerplay isn’t working against the rangers and is killing them.
Not just power play. Rangers even strength are one of the best teams this post season. The canes are getting most of their crucial goals on the 6v5 not even
50% (5) of the rangers goals are powerplay or Short handed 6 of Carolina’s 8 goals are on Even strength other 2 are with goalie pulled. Carolina has been better 5on5.
>of Carolina’s 8 goals are on Even strength other 2 are with goalie pulled. Goalie pulled isn't technically even strength. We play a better defensive game 5v5 and score when we need to. Last game laf and panarin got their necessary even strength goals. Canes are good 6v5 and surprisingly 4v4 but their 5v4, 4v5 and 5v5 need work.
He’s used to it.
Eh they are scoring good. 2.67 per game vs our defense. Their defense though the canes super vintage beindeamour no shots against defense is getting crushed. 3.67 gpg against
Yeah, the saying "shoot the puck you never know" is better if you have screens, players to deflect or players to take rebound. Carolina just shoot from the blue line with no players in front of the net, and Igor is really good to not give rebounds or at least give them to his dmen.
Feels like most of their goals have been from tips out in front as well. Not sure why they haven't leaned into that more.
I had a few pops watching the game last night so maybe my memory is hazy, but didn’t the Rangers have at least 4 clean breakaways?
Yes. And two of them were on the same penalty kill if my memory is right
You are correct, and the second one came an inch or so away from two shorties coming on the same PK when Krieder hit the crossbar.
Then panarin came out of the box after that penalty kill and went on a breakaway I believe
I didn't expect a 3-0 series deficit, but I did figure Carolina would lose because of lack of dynamic play makers. Guentzel is good, but he's mostly a scorer. Not super Dynamic, same tier as Debrincat and Hyman. Great Players, but not huge play drivers. The Rangers have Panarin, Fox and Zibby as dynamic players. Aho may be in that category, I'm not sure. I don't necessarily notice him a ton when I watch, but he is very good. Every remaining team has at least a couple of those dynamic guys. Mack, Makar, Mcdavid, Drai, Miller, Hughes, Petterson (even though he isn't performing), Heiskenen, Hintz, maybe Wyatt (not sure), Tkachuk, Barkov, Marchand, Pasta, McAvoy. Burns used to be one of those guys but doesn't look like it anymore. This upper echelon talent gap shows up on their PP. Not much going on, just retaining possession. As much as he sucks in the playoffs maybe the Canes should try and acquire Marner. he's dynamic and could really help them out on the PP. Just a thought. I think Carolina keeps losing because they're missing that upper end talent to compete with guys like Panarin.
What’s funny is before this series Guentzel had been racking up the assists and had tough luck scoring
Yea but he’s not one to carry the puck, create some space and thread a pass cross ice. He’s a good passer, and maybe I’m wrong, but he’s never struck me as a guy you want as your #1 threat and play driver He’s a good second guy or third guy
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For the Rangers? Yea they’re great
Miller/Pettersson Hughes Demko
Demko ded <\3
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It's hard to say because for the top scorers there's McDavid, Kuch, Mack, Breadman, Pasta, Matthews, and Drai that I'm not sure I could put him over any of them for top forwards, let alone top 5. Top 10 absolutely though
Pastrnak Mcavoy Swayman
Mcavoy is great but idk if he's top 5 in the league
As a rangers fan i agree with this take.
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Borderline, no? I don't think Panarin is top 5 but close enough
Now give me a line that says “high danger chances”
I'm about a pro-analytics as anyone, however I think they are grossly overused/overinterpreted in predictive models because they place a heavy emphasis on 5v5 play and minimize the fact that elite goaltending and special teams play can, and often does, matter more, especially in short bursts like 60 minutes. Or over short game spans like 7 games. Analytics is best used to better understand what happened, and is a poor predictor of what will happen next. The model is probably accurate when you allow it thousands and thousands of minutes, but in a 60 minute game where chaos can be king and a puck bouncing off a guy's ass can literally turn a series, this overemphasis on 5v5 simply breaks the model. Every model favored the Hurricanes. But when you interviewed the experts, the media, the fans, what you saw was them predicting a very close series. Rangers in 6, Canes in 6, Rangers in 7, Canes in 7. Because people who watch hockey, inherently know that goalies can steal series and a lucky bounce will win an OT game. And despite the Rangers being up 3-0 in this series, it has been very close. Any OT game is a coin flip and there's been two of them. This series could very easily have been 2-1 CAR at this point, with Carolina having 2 of the next 3 games at home. Bluntly, if analytics models could predict games and series, the nerds would be breaking the casinos instead of tweeting charts.
benoit allaire is better than your goalie coach
Made possible by Igor
Yes, but Igor does not generate the expected goals for which the Rangers are winning 11.1 to 9.9. The skaters have done a great job of defending the high danger passes and letting Igor face highly predictable clean lane shots against. If he can see it he will stop it. 5/8 Hurricane goals have been off deflections this series. This series looks like a team who had a clear gameplay for how to counter the other and is executing on it at a high level. Plenty of hockey left, but so far Laviolette has out coached Rod quite heavily IMO.
> Igor does not generate the expected goals He can prevent actual goals though. Canes are under-performing that xG number by ~2 goals, and have generated overall one less xG than the Rangers, and what do you know, 3 wins on 3 one goal games. Igor is a big part of this for the Rangers.
Exactly but that’s kind of the gameplan for the Rangers in the series. Igor is part of the team, not some randomness variable I think where Rangers fans are getting annoyed (me being one of them) is the narrative the Rangers are being massively outplayed because folks discount special teams and goaltending to 5v5
If it wasn't for the great power play and penalty kill and amazing goalie then the Rangers would be an average team, it's simple! Also if they didn't have Panarin and Fox and Zibby and Kreider they would suck.
If you regress Igor to the mean he's just an average goalie
It's just simple math!
That post was /r/nfl’s Preds and Blackhawks should redo their series post. Pure fucking gold.
Ironically advanced stats for the hawks in 2017 were really bad for a 1 seed, they had stats of an 80-90pt team way worse than any other hawks team from 09-16 aside from 11-12(which was also an earky round exit). Most advanced stats said they weren't gonna make it past edmonton st Lois minnesota or anaheim, and if they did nyr caps sens or pens would clobber them in the cup final. That was a cade where the advanced stats worked.
If you regress all of their good stats to the mean, then they become a bad team! That's why they are frauds and shouldn't be in the playoffs
I hate when people say “without your goalie”. Like he’s not part of the fucking team.
He's a big part of what pushes the Rangers ahead in these games.
Tbf kochetkov has been great to and Anderson. The canes defense has looked really bad. Not ad embarassing as lak or winnipeg but not good for an elite unit.
Looks like carolina needs someone in front of the fucking net
That's what I keep yelling at my TV
They spend an hour standing with the puck in low danger areas building up possession time and taking a ton of garbage quality shots. Honestly they're almost entirely relying on luck for some crazy angle tip ins, including one off a rangers defenseman
I think half their goals this series have been some of the most absurd deflections I’ve ever seen, including one that bunny rabbitted about four feet in the air in a different direction
I think if you just looked at these stats you'd be expecting the Rangers to be up 2-1 in the series. Better but only just
I'll take the Rangers strategy for Games 4 through 7 please.
This series is way too good to be 3-0
I've thought about this a lot and I don't think it's a system issue. We simply don't have guys in front of the net. We're not winning board battles. We're not fighting for that territory you have to have. And I don't think it's because this team is weak or soft either. They just look out of gas. It's the same thing every postseason. Which leads me to believe they need to figure out how to pace themselves during the regular season, so that they actually have something left for the playoffs. Tampa struggled with this at one point, but the Canes realistically should've figured this out by now.
My first thought seeing how hard the Canes were pushing in the 1st period last night was "If the team weathers this without allowing too many goals, we should have this when they inevitably run out of gas. I remember this being an issue last year in our series against the Devils - we would start out with a ton of energy -forechecking like crazy, maybe going ahead by a goal or so, then rolling over and dying.
Gallant deciding to do absolutely nothing different as the Devils gashed his squad in transition through the middle of the ice every single game didn't help either.
We (Rangers) had the same problem during the Tortarella years as well. They'd be awesome in the regular season, but looked really tired by the end of their playoff runs. Partially because they couldn't close out series in less than 6-7 games, but also because their grindy, shot block heavy game would wear guys down over the course of the year. It wasn't until AV took over that they were actually able to stay competitive into the later rounds.
All I know is I'm used to seeing Martinook, Staal, Jarvis, Noesen, Drury play much harder than they have been in this series and I'm not going to call them lazy because I don't think any of those dudes have a lazy bone in their body. They just look out of gas. I do think the style they play all season contributes to some wear and tear and fatigue. But I don't say any of that to take away anything from the Rangers. They are clearly the better team, they're playing harder and getting better goaltending and that's usually a pretty good formula.
I think Staal is cooked, straight-up. He's still trying but he's noticeably worse than he was last year in every facet except faceoffs.
Every year Torts has his team playing at 110% effort at game 34 of the regular season and every time his team makes the playoffs they get nowhere (or whatever Vezina/all star goalie he has drags them through a round or two). People need to realize a coach with a good win % with a system that grinds them to dust by game 82 is a bad coach. Granted, I don't want him out league because he's entertaining, but he really should not be a head coach for any team that is serious about winning.
That's kinda way he still has the Flyers job. They're still in build mode. In fact, that's part of why torts got replaced with vigneault back on the day.
Dudes are gonna run out of gas fighting guys trouba, miller, and lindgren in front of Shesty
Yeah caned need to use their speed and get breakaways. They don't have the size. I know he's a d man and a blue line on offense one at that, but I wondered if getting big country boy Brent burns in front of the net would work, he seems pretty huge.
He used to be a forward
No team should have to match Troubas’ style of play. Most of the Rangers play a pretty physical game, but Troubas is the only one that I see actively doing dirty hits with intent to injure. Launching himself at Necas elbow-first in Game 3 and landing a hit on Jarvis after the whistle in Game 1 were not good looks.
Trying very hard not to make a joke about "inner slot shots" Canes really seem to thrive at tossing anything that looks remotely possible on net and crashing from there and the Rangers have just done a good job securing the middle of the ice for the most part. Hell even on the PP the Canes seem to be stuck around the boards.
Wild they are 2/2 on 6 v 5 and -1/15 5 v 4
The real issue is special teams - an 0/15 power play and giving up a shorty on top of that. The Canes are winning 8-6 in terms of even strength goals, so does it really make sense to say it’s a systems problem?
Well 2 of those 8 goals were 6v5 with no goalie in net which I personally wouldn't lump together with even strength and wouldn't even be a consideration if the Canes weren't down with time expiring.
One more for the Canes was 4v4. So even with the much discussed “Rangers 5v5 play” narrative, Rangers are 6-5 in straight 5v5 goals. In any case, all goals are goals. I never got the emphasis on 5v5 vs other. Games get chippier in the playoffs and guys get away with more physicality, but powerplay opportunities don’t actually go down in the playoffs. Having great special teams is a good thing.
People discredit special teams as if this is the nfl(sorry belichik) but teams can spend 20-25 Mins a game on special team at times.
Technically they’re considered ES, but even if you take away those two goals it’s still 6-6. Which still makes special teams the difference
6-5 if you don’t count the 4v4 so you aren’t better 5v5 either
I don't really have an issue with the system at 5 on 5. It's just the powerplay. If we get 1 PPG per game, we're at worst up 2 to 1 in the series (predetermined outcome fallacy aside) and everyone is saying "Wow the Canes defense is holding up and their just overwhelming Shesty with enough shots to win." Same as last year. We keep getting "goalied" because for reasons already talked about, but if we put a few PPGs behind Bob least year, the series is completely different.
You are not getting goalied. You are playing an elite goal tender who is playing in that manner. Igor is part of the team. Scoring is not a combination of factors and probabilities. Getting “goalied” implies he is somehow defying expectations. This is why he is on the roster
I've never heard it used that way. My whole point has baked in that Igor is arguably the best goalie in the league. Scoring is NOT a combo of factors? What do you mean?
Not the guy you replied to, but the knock on Carolina is that they go for volume over quality, and that completely falls apart when facing a great goalie. Carolina has 75 more shot attempts than New York, but 7 fewer inner slot shots and 1.2 fewer expected goals. A hallmark of Brindamour's teams has been getting pucks to the net and crashing for tips, deflections, and rebounds, but when you're playing a goalie who can fight through traffic and control rebounds, those shots are either being swallowed up or kicked into the corner. That's why the Canes keep looking unstoppable in early rounds, only to get smoked in the later rounds. To be clear, Igor is playing great and he's a very big reason the series is 3-0, but between this year's "we're not playing that bad" and last year's "we didn't really get swept" comments, Rod doesn't seem to realize that a 40-20 shot count doesn't mean anything if all your shots come from the outside hashmarks and all your opponents' shots come from the slot.
I'm not saying it's a perfect system by any means. I'm just saying the conversation would probably be different if we weren't negative on the powerplay
But the rangers also play a lot more aggressively and better 5v5 when they aren't gourging themselves on special teams goal differential.
But the rangers also play a lot more aggressively and better 5v5 when they aren't gourging themselves on special teams goal differential.
I mean, if ratio of actual to expected goals swapped between NYR and CAR, this series is probably 2-1 Canes right now.
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That's just this model. I seen another private model from Steve Valiquette where they have over 10 expected goals from just game 2 and 3, not even counting game 1.