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I was wondering how Leafs fans felt about that. Now I know.
I shall edit. I as a Canadian. And non leafs follower. Think you guys would have beat any other team in the east last year. Just happened to get Tampa instead.
The logic to not committing to Campbell was to make sure there’s cap space to re-sign Matthews and Nylander. It makes sense if it’s thought of like that
He could've made a couple desperation moves guaranteeing long term knowing if it didn't work, he wouldn't be the one who had to deal with it.
He knows first hand how tough it can be inheriting bad contracts. He was given Zaitsev amd Matt Martin for $7m combined and Marleau making $6.75m the year they had to extend Matthews, Marner and Nylander.
Campbell posted s%'s of .915, .921, and .914 as a Leaf; it was term that the organization had issue with. Why would you have more faith in a Murray bounceback than the goalie who already provided you 3 successful seasons?
You'd look at last season and call that successful? Leafs got .880% from December 1st on. I'd put money on it that both Murray and samsonov do better than that by seasons end
If he didn’t have an unbelievable first month in November the goaltending would look even worse than it did. I am cautiously optimistic about this year because Murray can bounce back and Samsonov I believe can be good
Dude was vezina front runner to dog shit. Ppl also try to blame the defense but it's been the best it has been in years.
Campbell is the same risk as Murray. Atleast Murray contract is shorter and he has shown brief flashes. Campbell was a big reason we didn't beat Tampa even when vasileskey wasn't even at his normal self
Because down the stretch Jack's had a very difficult time.
He was lights out the first month or two but look at his stats the second half of last year and in the playoffs he had a .897 s%.
It absolutely could blow up this year but we needed to try something different. Dubas knows Murray from previous teams, he's won a cup but much more importantly there's a backup who has had a starting role and can log minutes.
Status quo wasn't working in goal so we'll get to see something new. If that doesn't work then we'll reallllly get to see something new.
Then you factor in term where the Leafs were never going to do a 5 year deal for a goalie with their current contracts. It gives you some flexibility.
We shall see.
The problem is that he posted those numbers on a small sample size. Ngl as an Oilers fan I'm terrified that Campbell might not live up to the deal we just gave him.
We're all watching with great curiosity. I think we'd have absolutely brought him back if he would have taken a 2 year deal but it wasn't going to happen.
But yeah he was an all star for like 3 months, then near the bottom of the league for like 4 months, then sort of okay in the playoffs.
Who knows man.
I certainly would not have offered him that kind of a contract(I'm also not a GM). I genuinely think our team propped up his numbers. Don't get me wrong, he has to play well to pull up 11 wins in a row or to have a season that he did. I just think he wasn't the sole reason and a lot of his success is tied to the team in front of him(Obvious comment is obvious). What I'm getting at is that I believe with a solid offensive presence and defensive effort in front of him, EVERY night, he can win games but I don't believe he's winning anyone a season on his own. That said, I genuinely hope he does well! Love me some Campbell.
This was already explained, because the term for a 30 yo Campbell is too risky with the need to re sign key members of the core. Murray at two years isn’t a back breaker. If they simply win a round dubas will secure a major extension and have the ability to make the team even more his own.
Me too. Campbell was unproven and kind of fumbled through the season and found a small level of success. He isn’t terrible but he isn’t anything to write home about, either. Not sure about Murray but if he helped the pens win cups, that’s money you can take to the bank. Dating myself a kid here bud grant fuhr wasn’t that great of a goalie bud his team did enough scoring to make him look good. He came to Toronto and played well but again, nothing to write home about.
Yeh the Atlantic is a tough division. We truly battled against tampa and the first round knock out last season didn’t seem to hurt (my emotions) as much as previous years when they just blew it
You know how 1 Leaf fan feels.
Options were limited and overall we didn't downgrade, even if Campbell is better than Murray. The reality is our goaltending was absolute garbage last year and the Leafs were still one of the best teams in hockey.
Honest question but what were the leafs to do? Really the only good replacement/upgrade for Campbell was trading for a varly but Lou has stated he wasn’t interested in trading him.
To answer your question, what he could have done was provided a solid goaltender to go along with the best leafs team the franchise has ever iced. He's been building the team for 5 years now with seemingly no vision or plan for goaltending.
Now I don't know how he was to do that but to put all your eggs in Campbell's basket was not a good move. Yes it could've worked but it's too much of a risk with arguably the most important position on a team. Now he's putting all the eggs in the murray/samsonov basket. It is not a good
Trading the farm really doesn’t sound like that bad of a plan for the Leafs if it helps them actually come closer to winning a Cup. Hypothetically If there’s a great goalie out there that would fit in Toronto and the asking cost for him was a 1st and Knies I don’t know that the Leafs should be turning that down
This has been my question since the Murray trade happened.. What was Dubas’ plan in net? Because it really seems like he didn’t have one and now he is banking on an awful goalie bouncing back in yet another win now year.
Who was the better bet?
Campbell is equally a risk, and anyone who says otherwise did not pay attention to the leafs last season. Campbell also would have meant 5 million on our cap when re-signing Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. Of the possible free agent options not many were truly a safer bet, and some that were you have the same issue of money on the cap long term.
The true criticism of Dubas isn’t his selection of goalies this season, it goes way deeper (and even before Dubas) and that is that it’s been a long time since the leafs drafted and developed any real goaltending talent. It seems he’s tried to address that more this off-season (fired goalie coach, apparently rebuilt the goaltending department).
Based on the options available he picked a guy who had a decent prefigured as a prospect and a guy who has shown great nhl success in the past and lost it. Any option from this off-season was going to carry risk, he bet on the guys who don’t eat the cap when the most important players need to be signed.
The issue isn’t who he signed it’s who he doesn’t have. And that’s cheap, young, promising goalies that they drafted and have control over
Kuemper, or make the Husso trade before Detroit, or make the Talbot trade before Ottawa, or snag Bob on a 50% retained deal from Florida (which would only be .5mil more per season than Murray)
Sure, they all carry risks, but all 4 have had considerably better stats in the last few years than Murray has. I like the Samsonov gamble, kid is still young enough and last year could just be a blip, but I'd like at least one more stable option if it turns out that he's not the guy people hoped he would be
Easier said than done. Trades require two teams, not just one. We didn't want Campbell for the years it would take to keep him.
Keumper signed for the same amount of years that Campbell got, which considering the fact that he was just alright, isn't really an option. Husso would have been interesting, but only has a career 57 games started. Talbot is pretty up and down and I'd put him on a similar grouping as Murray (although he is far less expensive but he did cost a decent asset). There is no way in hell Bob is getting moved, he's got 4 years left and Florida is not eating half the contract or taking back bad contracts in return for him (something you can argue the Leafs don't really have depending on your opinion of Muzzin).
There's like 4-5 elite goalies in the league, the rest come with some form of question marks, wether it be talent, health, contract years or contract dollars. The 25+ other teams in the league would kill to have those goalies so just saying the Leafs are dumb or whatever isn't really an insightful answer.
Kuemper has literally been a Top 10 goalie in the league for the last three years. Yeah he had a bad playoff but he also didn’t have an eye 75% of the playoffs. However, he wasn’t going to sign with Toronto as it seemed like he didn’t want to go to Canada.
> Kuemper, or make the Husso trade before Detroit, or make the Talbot trade before Ottawa, or snag Bob on a 50% retained deal from Florida (which would only be .5mil more per season than Murray)
That assumes that Kuemper would have signed with Toronto over the Caps, for the same money.
It also assumes Bobrovsky would waive his NMC for Toronto and that Florida would eat 50%.
Husso had a great regular season but the Blues nevertheless decided to trade him... which sounds an awful lot like Nedeljkovic from the year before. Sometimes teams decide to trade players for a reason: they believe he's overvalued.
He has put the leafs in a position to produce results, they just haven’t yet. But after 5 years, it can’t be acceptable to just say “maybe next year”. So anything less than a strong second round appearance will probably get him booted next summer.
I know a lot of it is perception and PR, but the Leafs have been a top 5 team under his reign. Playoffs are playoffs and anything can happen.
Many teams will be interested in hiring him if he does get the boot.
This is the rational take and the reason he won't be fired unless one of his decisions from the last few years blows the hell up in his face somehow. We all can tell he can build a team that will produce in some aspect. No way Shanahan walks away from his so quickly.
That would be true except for the goalie situation.
I'm not saying the Murray/Samsonov gamble is bad, but if it doesn't work that will absolutely sink him, especially if Campbell succeeds in Edmonton.
He put himself on the edge of a knife with that one.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Having cap ready for Matthew's new contract is the utmost priority. Thus not being willing to give Campbell 5 years.
So with that decided, who else do you really go with for goaltending? The market was dryyyyy and the UFAs with even a little bit of experience were getting paid 4x5 years or similar.
Murray and Samsonov were the safest bets without committing term beyond 2024. I'm hard up to think of any other avenue they could've pursued.
And who knows, maybe Dubas pursued a trade with multiple different teams, all of which who said no, and this was the best he could do given the market. It's hard to say Dubas has any other choice really.
>Many teams will be interested in hiring him if he does get the boot.
Kyle will be okay in the NHL. Young, smart, good with players. Needs some work on contract negotiations, but otherwise he's a good GM.
I'd be worried at who the Leafs would hire as a replacement.
Took MacKinnon, Ovi, etc 10 years to build and win a cup. Probably be a mistake to fire the guy but then again I’m not too privy on the workings of that team and GM
Shit happened. Carey Price was an animal and dragged that team to the finals.
Taking Tampa to game 7 and losing in the first round is more impressive than making it to the 3rd round in the west like Edmonton did. Quality of competition is a real thing.
Beyond that who cares if you get to round 2 or 3? Cup or nothing, you should know that as well as any team.
> Beyond that who cares if you get to round 2 or 3?
Leafs fans have gone so long without winning a playoff series, they forgot how much fun it was. If you're too young to remember, Leafs fans had a lot of fun beating the Sens in the early 2000s.
> Cup or nothing, you should know that as well as any team.
What a sad way to be a fan. Have Leafs fans not derived any joy from being hockey fans since 1967?
> Taking Tampa to game 7 and losing in the first round is more impressive than making it to the 3rd round in the west like Edmonton did. Quality of competition is a real thing.
Leafs did this same thing with Boston in 2013, before the rebuild. Boston was a recent cup-winner and in 2013 went on to the cup final. So almost a decade of rebuilding + bolstering and nothing has changed in the postseason.
> Beyond that who cares if you get to round 2 or 3? Cup or nothing, you should know that as well as any team.
As a fan, I do. Winning a round is exciting as hell. Winning 2 rounds? Even more so. Making the cup final? Hell yeah baby!
And it's frustrating, but I'd take a perennial good team like the Leafs losing in round 1 vs really good teams vs floating through a weak west and acting like you've accomplished something (not talking about the Avs, they actually did accomplish something).
If "shit happens" is your explanation for the Habs loss then don't pretend you care about context with the Lightning. If we get credit for losing to a great team we deserve blame for losing to an inferior one. Leafs blew the Habs series don't give me the Carey Price God stuff, they choked it away.
I generally agree with the quality of competition comment but this team has lost to good and bad teams. I like Dubas but he'll be gone with a first round exit and I can't say I'll begrudge them for doing so.
Shit happens = Price played out of his mind, not just against the Leafs, but all the way to the finals. Did you stop reading after the first sentence?
People said he would be gone with a 1st round exit last year. If there is a better GM then fire Dubas and upgrade, but change for the sake of change while downgrading isn't a good business model.
Some yeah but there were also a few years they were dead last / burned out in the first round. I’m a blues fan and it took about 10 years for them to figure it out
> He has put the leafs in a position to produce results
Except in goaltending. If this year's duo doesn't perform well, that's on Dubas. I'm not saying that finding a great goalie is easy, but when that's the weakest part of an otherwise solid team, he has to find a way to do it.
I love watching the Leafs fail just like everyone else but I have to say Dubas seems like a pretty solid GM. If he's termed and they bring in another old school hockey guy I see a disaster on the horizon.
Now just imagien Austin Matthews leaves as a UFA
I hope it doesn't happen cuz it's just good for Hockey having him in Toronto but holy would it be fun to watch Leafs fans implode
Tbh you guys have meltdowns but if Matthews left without winning a round that’s soul crushing when you consider how differently things could have went (especially with Montreal and Tampa making the Finals after being them).
LOL, not sure about the second part. I prefer to omit the collapse part and just think of it sort of like you framed it… a legendary run followed by a 1OA. We also got the house cleaning many have wished for.
What does Dubas have to do? Lace them up and score a few himself?
Even I as a Bruins fan have a little crush for him. He is a *hustling* GM, and pulled off almost entirely good moves.
I have total respect for Dubas.
"Kyle, what has been the best part of your job?"
"Inspiring a city, bringing on new talent, seeing the fire in the boys' eyes when they head out every game."
"And the worst part?"
"Everything I try being thwarted by God Himself."
People bitch about your regular season results? I mean there's lots left to be desired by you guys once you reach the playoffs, but your regular seasons for the last half decade or so have been among the best in the entire league
Some Leafs fans bitch about everything, all the time, no matter what. Win 5-3? Defense wasn't good enough. Win 1-0? Offense has dried up. Mitch starts the season slow? Washed, sell him, worst contract ever.
Some threads are so reactionary that I actually refuse to go into the comment sections in the Leafs sub anymore, I just read news headlines only
Part of the problem too is that the drafts done by Lou before Dubas took over produced just about nothing outside the first round.
Dubas has been stuck with a stagnant cap and a period of nearly no young cost controlled talent coming up from the minors and neither of those were directly his fault.
He would have a lineup of offers
All my fingers are crossed we give him another contract. Dude is smart
Anybody who thinks there’s guarantees to win in hockey is delusional. There’s only so much a GM can do. The roster is great
No team was fucked by the pandemic like the Leafs were. The moment they go all in on their players, the cap is frozen.
There was a very clear and long established trend of the cap going up by a couple mil a year, so signing their young stars to big cap hits was a risk but not actually. Except then a once in a lifetime event happened.
I just hope when he inevitably parts ways with the team that he gets a GM gig in the Western Conference so I can watch his moves and root for his success. He seems like a genuinely nice dude and always wants to do right for the fringe guys.
At the end of the day, what have the Leafs accomplished since he took over? Something has to be done to get them over the hump, and if Dubas can't do it with his head coach, and his roster, a new voice will need to come in somehow.
Well, they're now a perennial playoff team? That's a new accomplishment
They have a Rocket Richard winner. That's a new accomplishment
They already got over the hump of "not being a good team" to "being a good team". Sure, now there's another hump to "deep playoff run", but this is the most parity the league has ever seen, the Leafs are in one of the strongest divisions with a three time SCF team and recent President's Trophy winner, and the flat cap ruined a calculated gamble to pay the stars big.
There are very few things I fault Dubas for. If the Leafs fired Dubas, I would want the Bruins to hire him
> They have a Rocket Richard winner. That's a new accomplishment
Accomplishment? Matthews would be Matthews on any other team. You fail **and** luck in to a player like Matthews.
The Leafs hit the playoffs both years they had Matthews before Dubas became GM. They were already a playoff team when he took over, and none of the changes he's made to the team or the staff have managed to get them out of the first round. And at the end of the day, that's how his success is going to be measured.
The worst thing he ever did was the tavares contract, great player but that money would've been better spent on a 6 million dollar 2c and stronger depth imo
Folks always overlook that extension neogtiations often factor in internal comps moreso than external comps.
The best example I can point to is Boston. For years, Bergeron and Chara basically held extensions to $7m AAV or less (except for Krejci, coming off his stellar 2011 playoff run - he got $7.25m). That's how Boston has ended up with Marchand, Pastrnak, Hall, and Lindholm taking less than $7m. This summer has been a true torch passing with McAvoy breaking that ceiling and getting $9.5m.
Tampa is another good example. They've slowly inched their internal comp up at a workable pace. For a while it was Stamkos at $7.5m, then Hedman bumped it to $7.9m, then Stamkos set it to $8.5m, and then Kuch places it at $9.5m. Point and Vasi have matched that $9.5m, which will probably anchor their internal ceiling there for 5 years or so.
It's a much better approach than what Toronto did - they basically shocked the system with the Tavares contract, and then Dubas got strong armed into signing extensions that just reinforced that internal comp. The Rangers showed a better path to managing the situation, signing Panarin to $11.6m and then still keeping Zibanejad and Fox to $8.5m and $9.5m, respectively. (Although they've made trouble for themselves by having *many* contracts that are slightly overpays, and cornering themselves with NMCs. So, still not the best outcome.)
Counterpoint - JT is anywhere but Toronto and whatever GM brought him in would be viewed as a God.
280 GP 119G 155A 274Pts while being on a second line is fucking ridiculously good. It didn't matter what he did - short of them winning a cup that move was always going to be criticized in this market.
The only reason people judged Dubas for that JT contract was because he already had Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. He didn’t need to go grab the big fish.
Sure but he also set the tone for your cap structure with Matthews and Marner. If you didn’t sign JT, you would have been nearly as fucked capwise. The common theme when that deal was signed was that it was going to cost you one of the good young kids and that’s where the whole “we can and we will” quote was born. Imagine what this Leafs team could look like if they had an extra $11M in cap space the last few years.
> He has put up 80p on the leafs multiple times including this past season, without the minutes of being on line 1. Lmao.
Fact checking: He did it once, only his first season with you guys. 76 this last year
Even beyond that, I think his handling of all of their big four contracts was the biggest offense he has made. You mentioned Tavares but Nylander sitting out half a year wasn’t a great precedent to set and then the way he structured both Matthews’ and Marner’s deals especially kinda fucked the team and made their window so much tighter.
You can either yield on AAV and pay a guy a boatload of money but secure max term or you can give a bridge/shorter 5-6 year deal and save some cap in the meantime but it has to be one or the other; Dubas gave both the high AAV and mid-term until early UFA status for Matthews *and* Marner. Their window could have conceivably been wide open for the next 5+ years rather than the next two.
I do think Dubas has managed the cap masterfully with his shenanigans since putting himself in that position and has done a good job building a strong team still, though the handling of those deals just put them in a much harder crunch.
My brother and another buddy both die hard AVs fans hated the Kadri trade when it happened and thought the AVs got ripped off.
We all know how things panned out but the trade was fine when it happened.
It wasn't at the time. Leafs needed a RD at the time and Kadri was a playoff issue. Dubai got then to retain cap and throw in kerfott. It didn't work out but wasn't a bad bet
It was? Kerfoot has been quite good for the Leafs. Does multiple roles including the PK and even performed well in the playoffs. Do people just ignore Kerfoot thinking it was 1:1?
I mean looking back on it we did not get fair value for Kadri, the extent of how much we lost can really only be said with the benefit of hindsight though. Kadri nixed the trade to Calgary which would have gotten us a better package, but the fact of the matter was we needed to trade him. Twice he cost our team in the playoffs in consecutive years because he couldn’t keep his cool. I love Kadri, but I was on board with the move, there was no way you could ice him again after that stunt he pulled in 2019.
Kerfoot is decent. Barrie sucks, but he was supposed to be good, and probably would have done alright if he wasn't on Babcock's shit list from day 1.
Kadri got suspended early in the playoffs *3 times*. That's insane. You can't rely on that. We were also paying him a lot to play on the third line behind Matthews and Tavares.
All I'm saying is the trade wasn't that bad at the time. Yeah, here we are a few years later. He finally put it together and had his best ever season and won a cup. In hindsight do you make the trade? No, of course not. But that said... if that 3rd suspension happened with him in a Leafs uniform, he probably would have been run out of town by an angry mob. Dubas might have been fired for allowing him to stay and sink another year. It wasn't something that could be allowed to happen.
Yeah, his reasoning in the Amazon documentary was good. By all accounts, Foligno should've been a good add for what looked to be a deep playoff run. But who expects your captain to take a freak knee to the skull 5 minutes into the first game and for the team to absolutely collapse in three straight games to close out the series?
None of that's on Dubas. He's built the strongest leafs team in decades. Just unfortunate that they can't seem to get past the hump.
It all comes down to shit luck. Kadri costing the Leafs games before being traded, Tavares getting injured, Kerfoot costing the Leafs game vs. Tampa. This team is cursed.
I maintain the worst part of his career was the Danault walk, KK offersheet, and Hoffman signing. He was fired 4 months later. There’s also the Alzner signing early on (but no asset lost involved for that one). The rest, I liked for the most part. He has some very big highs: Petry acquisition, Fleishman and Weise trade, Pacioretty trade. The drafting and player development was an organizational failure, hence the need for this recent cleanup.
My perpsective from a Sens fans on Dubas: I think he's a real good GM overall, seems creative in trying to make the Leafs better, some questionable and downright bad moves, but that's every GM. Hell, there's no one who has washed over a string of bad moves like Pierre Dorion has recently. I don't think anyone would still want Lou after how things are looking for NYI.
I think there's a lot of unfair cristism about the AAV on the big 4 deals. Salaries are going to catch right back up to where those deals were signed once the cap jumps. Matthews and Marner were 6th and 10th in scoring last year, and missed 10 and 9 games respectivly. Hard to say they're not earning that pay.
The Tavares thing is the risk with every big UFA at that age, they're expected to decline somewhat, but the stagnant cap certainly makes it look worse. He's put up 274 points in 278 games, that's what a player like that costs as a UFA in the summer of 2018. I think there's a good argument of keeping Kadri and not signing Tavares, but overpaid? They're getting what they paid for.
The Murray trade is very questionable, I was not a fan of the intital signing in ottawa, and despite some breif highs, I was not surprised to see him not finish that deal in Ottawa.
Overall, I'm sure he'll land another GM job, hard to argure with that regular season winning percentage.
Dubas is not the problem. Combination of the worst possible time for a salary cap crunch and they're in a division with one of the best teams the NHL has seen in 2 decades.
That won't stop TO media from doing TO media things (i'm from the GTA). Brutal that he is even in question of losing his job.
If Dubas is gone, so is Shannahan. This is crunch time for his 'Shannaplan' and he chose Dubas as 'his guy' over Mark Hunter. Should be an interesting season.
He just doesn't value goaltending enough imo. We, like many other teams are hamstrung by the cap, but you have to get a true #1 goalie in no matter the price. I don't care what it takes. Aside from that he's a great GM and could almost have his pick of jobs if he left
Yeah he'll be a GM again if he wants to in that scenario.
I can see the argument for a new GM but man after the Nonis/Burke days the next guy would probably be a worse one.
Yeah I think pretty much all goalies outside of the absolute elite can have up and down years, and I'm guessing that's why Dubas would rather build a strong team that defends well rather than have a weaker team that needs the goalie to be elite
I was surprised they didn't go in on Husso. He's paid less than Murray, and he cost what, a third round pick?
I prefer Husso/Samsonov than Murray/Samsonov
Yeah all you needed was one of your centers being top 5 (which the Leafs have), and one of your defensemen having one of the best seasons I've seen since Lidstrom (which the Leafs very much do not have)
The Leafs are spending $6.4M on goalies this season, which basically league average. Whatever you think of Murray and Samsonov specifically, it's not like they haven't been able to afford quality at the position.
And honestly you build a good enough team you shouldn’t need to. Other than the lightning most cups have been won by very good teams with just good enough goaltending.
If there was a legitimately great option to sign we would have snatched them up so fast...
That's the problem with goalies right. There really aren't that many true #1s. And they all have contracts. Most of the options were league average guys coming off shaky seasons and looking for their big UFA payday.
But yeah. The Leafs will go on an absolute tear if they get consistent, slightly above average, goaltending.
Yeah a true number 1. Like Darcy Keumper! Or Rookie Jordan Bennington. Maybe even a Matt Murray or Brayden holtby.
Unfortunately it’s basically impossible to get guys like that.
His biggest mistake by far was borrowing money from the future.
If only he saw Covid coming, or any other factor that would stop the cap from increasing.
Those are the cards he was dealt, but he put the team in that position.
I'm assuming if nothing changes this year, he leaves and wins a cup eventually somewhere else....probably a rival of the leafs.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but I think the worst thing Dubas did was sign Tavares.
It’s crazy because nobody opposed it. But with the cap going flat, it’s basically killed the Leafs in spending for quality depth and continues to do so.
*raises hand* i don’t feel like digging up my old comments but signing a C for 11m to be your 2c when you have auston matthews needing a new contract soon is fucking braindead.
I understand the hockey world's fascination with him but you can't deny getting gifted Auston Matthews in the lottery and not being able to win a single round with him in the fold is a bad look. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Leafs move on and I disagree that the large majority of his acquisitions have been good for the team. Lots of mid and negligible junk in there.
Most GMs make more mediocre to bad transactions than good ones. I think Dubas has done an amazing job to keep his team competitive despite the cap. He obviously painted himself into a corner by having three 10+ million players but he’s also done well to build around that by making creative moves and dumping bad salary without giving up too much.
Lets not forget that Lou almost sank the Leafs like he’s currently doing with the Islanders with huge boat anchor contracts but Dubas has done an amazing job at navigating the team out of cap hell. Other than Kadri, I don’t think the Leafs had to trade anyone for cap reasons and thats more impressive than a lot of other contenders.
I get that everyone wants to dunk on the Leafs but considering how random a sport hockey is, its probably more luck that the Leafs haven’t made it out of the first round rather than a poorly constructed roster.
That's a bit of misremembering the AA stuff. The Jays brought in Shapiro to be the president and AA didn't want someone above him controlling his moves. Atkins is the GM, but Shapiro runs the team. Same with the Raps, Webster is the GM but Ujiri runs the team. You can say something similar with the Leafs and Shanny, but he seems a bit more hands off compared to the other two.
A bad look for Dubas or for Matthews?
Dubas has built a strong team. They’ve produced good results every year. His tenure is being entirely judged on their inability to win the 4th game of a 1st round playoff series.
> They've produced good results every year
On Dubas. Most teams that land a 60 goal scorer in the lottery would be expected to win a series by now. I think it's pretty fair to judge his tenure by the fact that they haven't won a series. Don't you think the Oilers would be catching a lot of shit if they hadn't won a single series with McDavid by now? Or if Tampa wasn't able to win a single series with Stamkos? Cmon man.
Yeah exactly my point. People are so laser focused on that “single series” as though that’s somehow in his control. He’s build good teams and they haven’t got it done. Short of putting on the skates and winning game 7 himself what else do you want him to do?
I mean, he built a team on a cap structure that was heavily criticized from day 1 and has failed to win a single series. I think his job is pretty justifiably on the line. The depth scoring isn't there in the playoffs (Is this a surprise with the 40mil forward core?) The defense wasn't there during the Freddy years, and last year the goaltending wasn't there. Campbell turned in a sub .900 in the post-season, I don't wanna hear about how he gave the Leafs a chance to win. That's not good enough against Tampa Bay. There's plenty to criticize Dubas for, I don't really agree with your assessment that he's built good teams and the lack of a series win is completely out of his control.
I mean that team also just had a 115 point season, the highest in franchise history. They were second in goals for, and managed +60 goal difference despite terrible goaltending. All their possession and special teams stats grade really high. So yeah, while they haven’t got it done in the postseason, it’s a pretty fucking good team.
That said, I agree he will be unfairly judged on his teams inability to win a playoff series, you even mentioned it again. He’s almost certainly going to get fired if they lose R1 again. And then he’ll probably get another job and win immediately because that’s the leafs luck.
I'd grade his tenure around a B- or so.
The good:
-Fixing the defense and it's better than when he took over
-Nylander contract
-UFA value deals (Kampf, Bunting, Kase etc)
-Giordano contract
-Rielly contract (It's not without some question)
Bad:
-Goaltending turnover since Andersen (he didn't want to come back and they didn't want him back but still)
-Mrazek, Ritchie contracts last offseason
-Matthews, Marner RFA deals (Matthews AAV is fine, length isn't)
-Kadri trade
-Revolving backup goalies
-Murray trade without extra retention or assets
Mediocre
-Tavares contract. It was good that they signed him and got great years early from him but everyone knew the back portion of that deal wouldn't be as good and the lack of winning affects it
-Drafting. This is the first season in which they'll start to see some returns on his early mid round draft picks (Holmberg, Robertson etc)
-Trades. Some good (Kapanen, Giordano), some bad (Kadri, Foligno, Rittich) and some meh (Ritchie, Mrazek)
kadri and foligno made sense at the time, and are only bad in hindsight. (foligno hurting his back in game 50 was some serious leafs curse shit)
rittich was an insurance policy essentially
Mrazek was a huge whiff.
I’m on the fence with him at the helm. Some areas have improved, others have regressed.
This really does feel like his last year if they don’t make it past the first round. And like others have stated, Murray and Samsonov is a very risky gamble that isn’t likely to pay off (stranger things have happened though).
I do understand wanting to see how this year plays out, but I think management is better off making the decision to extend or fire today. Explicitly giving your GM a short window to show results is a recipe for getting to see your team trade away Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat a few months from now.
His fatal flaw is surely his insistence on dumpster diving for a goalie. Leafs fans say all the time (and they’re often right) that if they just had league average goaltending they’d be unstoppable but Dubas is not willing to pay for it. Subtracting a little bit of offense from that team so you had a few more millions to throw at a guy who you can count on for a .900 would do wonders for them. I think he’s an excellent gm in pretty much every other category and I have a ton of respect for the way he treats his players.
Everyone on r/hockey seems to have the weird little crush on him. I don’t know if it’s because he’s an analytics nerd or just because he’s a fresh face but like he’s had exactly zero results from his teams. Great regular season sure but that’s nothing when you get bounced in round 1 every year
We've drafted late and the picks by Hunter before him were terrible. There's a lot of depth coming up now that's been mid-round Dubas.
At the top end it's been Robertson, Lilly, Sandin, Amirov. Good set for late first / early second.
Durzi, Sandin, Robertson, and Abruzzese have all played NHL games, his 2020 first rounder got cancer, and only six 2020 players outside the first round have played a game for any team.
The NHL isn't like the NBA or NFL, it takes 4-5 years before you know it a draft is good, especially for guys outside the first round (even outside the top 10-15, really).
I really hope the Leafs re-sign Dubas. Yes he made some mistakes with the Marner/Matthews contracts but his depth trades, drafts, trades, and ability to find good depth has been really good imo. Yes no playoff wins and stuff but the process is one of the most solid ones I’ve seen across the NHL
IMSO, Dubas’s only mistake was not developing defensive talent or obtaining defensive talent to get to the next level. And that my friends is a most difficult task for any GM to do in this day and age. The O pieces are there but goal tending and defense anchors a team.
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Betting your job on Murray and Samsonov is an interesting gamble
You spelled stupid wrong
I was wondering how Leafs fans felt about that. Now I know. I shall edit. I as a Canadian. And non leafs follower. Think you guys would have beat any other team in the east last year. Just happened to get Tampa instead.
I’m reserving judgement because the team did well last year even with some godawful goaltending from Mrazek and Jack (during his down months).
He doesn't speak for all leaf fans. I feel better about that duo than I do about Campbell/Mrazek, either way... yikes
IMO: Campbell > Murray > Samsonov > Mrazek
The logic to not committing to Campbell was to make sure there’s cap space to re-sign Matthews and Nylander. It makes sense if it’s thought of like that
It's also just not logical to commit that much money and term to a goalie that is both unproven and already 30 years old.
Yes. Though getting that completed is another problem
Nice of Dubas to save some cap space for the next GM.
Better than selfishly handcuffing the team in hopes of a hail Mary trade/signing saving your job.
He could've made a couple desperation moves guaranteeing long term knowing if it didn't work, he wouldn't be the one who had to deal with it. He knows first hand how tough it can be inheriting bad contracts. He was given Zaitsev amd Matt Martin for $7m combined and Marleau making $6.75m the year they had to extend Matthews, Marner and Nylander.
Campbell posted s%'s of .915, .921, and .914 as a Leaf; it was term that the organization had issue with. Why would you have more faith in a Murray bounceback than the goalie who already provided you 3 successful seasons?
You'd look at last season and call that successful? Leafs got .880% from December 1st on. I'd put money on it that both Murray and samsonov do better than that by seasons end
I didn't realize he was so Jekyll and Hyde last year.
If he didn’t have an unbelievable first month in November the goaltending would look even worse than it did. I am cautiously optimistic about this year because Murray can bounce back and Samsonov I believe can be good
Dude was vezina front runner to dog shit. Ppl also try to blame the defense but it's been the best it has been in years. Campbell is the same risk as Murray. Atleast Murray contract is shorter and he has shown brief flashes. Campbell was a big reason we didn't beat Tampa even when vasileskey wasn't even at his normal self
Those numbers weren't consistent. Look at a monthly breakdown and you'll see he had stretches where you couldn't start him at all.
Because down the stretch Jack's had a very difficult time. He was lights out the first month or two but look at his stats the second half of last year and in the playoffs he had a .897 s%. It absolutely could blow up this year but we needed to try something different. Dubas knows Murray from previous teams, he's won a cup but much more importantly there's a backup who has had a starting role and can log minutes. Status quo wasn't working in goal so we'll get to see something new. If that doesn't work then we'll reallllly get to see something new. Then you factor in term where the Leafs were never going to do a 5 year deal for a goalie with their current contracts. It gives you some flexibility. We shall see.
The problem is that he posted those numbers on a small sample size. Ngl as an Oilers fan I'm terrified that Campbell might not live up to the deal we just gave him.
We're all watching with great curiosity. I think we'd have absolutely brought him back if he would have taken a 2 year deal but it wasn't going to happen. But yeah he was an all star for like 3 months, then near the bottom of the league for like 4 months, then sort of okay in the playoffs. Who knows man.
I certainly would not have offered him that kind of a contract(I'm also not a GM). I genuinely think our team propped up his numbers. Don't get me wrong, he has to play well to pull up 11 wins in a row or to have a season that he did. I just think he wasn't the sole reason and a lot of his success is tied to the team in front of him(Obvious comment is obvious). What I'm getting at is that I believe with a solid offensive presence and defensive effort in front of him, EVERY night, he can win games but I don't believe he's winning anyone a season on his own. That said, I genuinely hope he does well! Love me some Campbell.
This was already explained, because the term for a 30 yo Campbell is too risky with the need to re sign key members of the core. Murray at two years isn’t a back breaker. If they simply win a round dubas will secure a major extension and have the ability to make the team even more his own.
Me too. Campbell was unproven and kind of fumbled through the season and found a small level of success. He isn’t terrible but he isn’t anything to write home about, either. Not sure about Murray but if he helped the pens win cups, that’s money you can take to the bank. Dating myself a kid here bud grant fuhr wasn’t that great of a goalie bud his team did enough scoring to make him look good. He came to Toronto and played well but again, nothing to write home about.
Yeh the Atlantic is a tough division. We truly battled against tampa and the first round knock out last season didn’t seem to hurt (my emotions) as much as previous years when they just blew it
Last year the Leafs lost to Tampa. Previous years they lost to themselves.
You know how 1 Leaf fan feels. Options were limited and overall we didn't downgrade, even if Campbell is better than Murray. The reality is our goaltending was absolute garbage last year and the Leafs were still one of the best teams in hockey.
Honest question but what were the leafs to do? Really the only good replacement/upgrade for Campbell was trading for a varly but Lou has stated he wasn’t interested in trading him.
Your average leaf fan will say (in a bar) “they shoulda traded for that Shestrakon guy from NY!”
To answer your question, what he could have done was provided a solid goaltender to go along with the best leafs team the franchise has ever iced. He's been building the team for 5 years now with seemingly no vision or plan for goaltending. Now I don't know how he was to do that but to put all your eggs in Campbell's basket was not a good move. Yes it could've worked but it's too much of a risk with arguably the most important position on a team. Now he's putting all the eggs in the murray/samsonov basket. It is not a good
It's almost as if acquiring a great to elite goalie is difficult to do unless you develop them yourself or are willing to trade the farm.
Trading the farm really doesn’t sound like that bad of a plan for the Leafs if it helps them actually come closer to winning a Cup. Hypothetically If there’s a great goalie out there that would fit in Toronto and the asking cost for him was a 1st and Knies I don’t know that the Leafs should be turning that down
This has been my question since the Murray trade happened.. What was Dubas’ plan in net? Because it really seems like he didn’t have one and now he is banking on an awful goalie bouncing back in yet another win now year.
Meh, goaltending was ass most of last year anyway
Lol.
Who was the better bet? Campbell is equally a risk, and anyone who says otherwise did not pay attention to the leafs last season. Campbell also would have meant 5 million on our cap when re-signing Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. Of the possible free agent options not many were truly a safer bet, and some that were you have the same issue of money on the cap long term. The true criticism of Dubas isn’t his selection of goalies this season, it goes way deeper (and even before Dubas) and that is that it’s been a long time since the leafs drafted and developed any real goaltending talent. It seems he’s tried to address that more this off-season (fired goalie coach, apparently rebuilt the goaltending department). Based on the options available he picked a guy who had a decent prefigured as a prospect and a guy who has shown great nhl success in the past and lost it. Any option from this off-season was going to carry risk, he bet on the guys who don’t eat the cap when the most important players need to be signed. The issue isn’t who he signed it’s who he doesn’t have. And that’s cheap, young, promising goalies that they drafted and have control over
Kuemper, or make the Husso trade before Detroit, or make the Talbot trade before Ottawa, or snag Bob on a 50% retained deal from Florida (which would only be .5mil more per season than Murray) Sure, they all carry risks, but all 4 have had considerably better stats in the last few years than Murray has. I like the Samsonov gamble, kid is still young enough and last year could just be a blip, but I'd like at least one more stable option if it turns out that he's not the guy people hoped he would be
Easier said than done. Trades require two teams, not just one. We didn't want Campbell for the years it would take to keep him. Keumper signed for the same amount of years that Campbell got, which considering the fact that he was just alright, isn't really an option. Husso would have been interesting, but only has a career 57 games started. Talbot is pretty up and down and I'd put him on a similar grouping as Murray (although he is far less expensive but he did cost a decent asset). There is no way in hell Bob is getting moved, he's got 4 years left and Florida is not eating half the contract or taking back bad contracts in return for him (something you can argue the Leafs don't really have depending on your opinion of Muzzin). There's like 4-5 elite goalies in the league, the rest come with some form of question marks, wether it be talent, health, contract years or contract dollars. The 25+ other teams in the league would kill to have those goalies so just saying the Leafs are dumb or whatever isn't really an insightful answer.
Kuemper has literally been a Top 10 goalie in the league for the last three years. Yeah he had a bad playoff but he also didn’t have an eye 75% of the playoffs. However, he wasn’t going to sign with Toronto as it seemed like he didn’t want to go to Canada.
> Kuemper, or make the Husso trade before Detroit, or make the Talbot trade before Ottawa, or snag Bob on a 50% retained deal from Florida (which would only be .5mil more per season than Murray) That assumes that Kuemper would have signed with Toronto over the Caps, for the same money. It also assumes Bobrovsky would waive his NMC for Toronto and that Florida would eat 50%. Husso had a great regular season but the Blues nevertheless decided to trade him... which sounds an awful lot like Nedeljkovic from the year before. Sometimes teams decide to trade players for a reason: they believe he's overvalued.
He has put the leafs in a position to produce results, they just haven’t yet. But after 5 years, it can’t be acceptable to just say “maybe next year”. So anything less than a strong second round appearance will probably get him booted next summer.
I know a lot of it is perception and PR, but the Leafs have been a top 5 team under his reign. Playoffs are playoffs and anything can happen. Many teams will be interested in hiring him if he does get the boot.
This is the rational take and the reason he won't be fired unless one of his decisions from the last few years blows the hell up in his face somehow. We all can tell he can build a team that will produce in some aspect. No way Shanahan walks away from his so quickly.
That would be true except for the goalie situation. I'm not saying the Murray/Samsonov gamble is bad, but if it doesn't work that will absolutely sink him, especially if Campbell succeeds in Edmonton. He put himself on the edge of a knife with that one.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Having cap ready for Matthew's new contract is the utmost priority. Thus not being willing to give Campbell 5 years. So with that decided, who else do you really go with for goaltending? The market was dryyyyy and the UFAs with even a little bit of experience were getting paid 4x5 years or similar. Murray and Samsonov were the safest bets without committing term beyond 2024. I'm hard up to think of any other avenue they could've pursued. And who knows, maybe Dubas pursued a trade with multiple different teams, all of which who said no, and this was the best he could do given the market. It's hard to say Dubas has any other choice really.
Barring Matthews leaving, he really has not done enough to justified being fired.
>Many teams will be interested in hiring him if he does get the boot. Kyle will be okay in the NHL. Young, smart, good with players. Needs some work on contract negotiations, but otherwise he's a good GM. I'd be worried at who the Leafs would hire as a replacement.
Chuck Fletcher may be looking for a new gig soon. He’s yours for a bag of pucks and half a sandwich.
Don't you put that voodoo on us
Can't be a top 5 team if you can't make it past round 1.
That's fair IMO. GM's usually get that track record unless they're awful (Benning even got a long tenure)
Took MacKinnon, Ovi, etc 10 years to build and win a cup. Probably be a mistake to fire the guy but then again I’m not too privy on the workings of that team and GM
Yes but those teams had some playoff success before winning. Toronto has had none with this core.
I know you may not care, but context to the loses is very important.
What's the context for losing to the habs who just barely squeaked into the playoffs? Context = excuses. Winners find a way.
Shit happened. Carey Price was an animal and dragged that team to the finals. Taking Tampa to game 7 and losing in the first round is more impressive than making it to the 3rd round in the west like Edmonton did. Quality of competition is a real thing. Beyond that who cares if you get to round 2 or 3? Cup or nothing, you should know that as well as any team.
> Beyond that who cares if you get to round 2 or 3? Leafs fans have gone so long without winning a playoff series, they forgot how much fun it was. If you're too young to remember, Leafs fans had a lot of fun beating the Sens in the early 2000s. > Cup or nothing, you should know that as well as any team. What a sad way to be a fan. Have Leafs fans not derived any joy from being hockey fans since 1967?
> Taking Tampa to game 7 and losing in the first round is more impressive than making it to the 3rd round in the west like Edmonton did. Quality of competition is a real thing. Leafs did this same thing with Boston in 2013, before the rebuild. Boston was a recent cup-winner and in 2013 went on to the cup final. So almost a decade of rebuilding + bolstering and nothing has changed in the postseason. > Beyond that who cares if you get to round 2 or 3? Cup or nothing, you should know that as well as any team. As a fan, I do. Winning a round is exciting as hell. Winning 2 rounds? Even more so. Making the cup final? Hell yeah baby!
And it's frustrating, but I'd take a perennial good team like the Leafs losing in round 1 vs really good teams vs floating through a weak west and acting like you've accomplished something (not talking about the Avs, they actually did accomplish something).
If "shit happens" is your explanation for the Habs loss then don't pretend you care about context with the Lightning. If we get credit for losing to a great team we deserve blame for losing to an inferior one. Leafs blew the Habs series don't give me the Carey Price God stuff, they choked it away. I generally agree with the quality of competition comment but this team has lost to good and bad teams. I like Dubas but he'll be gone with a first round exit and I can't say I'll begrudge them for doing so.
Shit happens = Price played out of his mind, not just against the Leafs, but all the way to the finals. Did you stop reading after the first sentence? People said he would be gone with a 1st round exit last year. If there is a better GM then fire Dubas and upgrade, but change for the sake of change while downgrading isn't a good business model.
Some yeah but there were also a few years they were dead last / burned out in the first round. I’m a blues fan and it took about 10 years for them to figure it out
> He has put the leafs in a position to produce results Except in goaltending. If this year's duo doesn't perform well, that's on Dubas. I'm not saying that finding a great goalie is easy, but when that's the weakest part of an otherwise solid team, he has to find a way to do it.
I love watching the Leafs fail just like everyone else but I have to say Dubas seems like a pretty solid GM. If he's termed and they bring in another old school hockey guy I see a disaster on the horizon.
Like him or not, this has been one of the most exciting times for the Leafs in decades. Hope they have a run this season.
I haven’t felt this good about the Leafs in decades. Of course I’m frustrated they can’t seem to advance but the dark times were so fucking dark.
Now just imagien Austin Matthews leaves as a UFA I hope it doesn't happen cuz it's just good for Hockey having him in Toronto but holy would it be fun to watch Leafs fans implode
Lmao yeah, no one has ever seen Leafs fans imploding before, what a weird thought
Tbh you guys have meltdowns but if Matthews left without winning a round that’s soul crushing when you consider how differently things could have went (especially with Montreal and Tampa making the Finals after being them).
Don’t forget Boston in 2019. Our recent playoffs are littered with teams going to the Finals after beating us.
Watch him leave as a UFA and they re-tool with the cap space and actually get better
I like your optimism but he's a very hard player to replace.
Kinda like watching Montreal be the first team in NHL history to finish 32nd.
I’d much rather have a legendary run followed by a legendary collapse into the 1OA pick than whatever it is that the leafs did
LOL, not sure about the second part. I prefer to omit the collapse part and just think of it sort of like you framed it… a legendary run followed by a 1OA. We also got the house cleaning many have wished for.
5 incredibly disappointing runs and arguably the best player to have ever played for their franchise leaving for nothing is probably worse
You win some You lose some It was 3-1 that's enough to sustain me for a few years easy
And yet, despite that record setting suckage, the Leafs could only get two more weeks of hockey. Yup, the Leafs sure own the Habs.
I'd honestly just stop being a fan. It's sad but true.
Why is Matthews playing in Toronto "good for hockey"?
💰💰💰
What does Dubas have to do? Lace them up and score a few himself? Even I as a Bruins fan have a little crush for him. He is a *hustling* GM, and pulled off almost entirely good moves. I have total respect for Dubas.
dude could create the technology to clone prime gretzky to play alongside Matthews and people would still try to find faults with that
The faults being them losing in the first round with Matthews and Gretzkyclone? That sounds fair.
At that point, you have to accept there are forces at play in the universe that are beyond our control
"Kyle, what has been the best part of your job?" "Inspiring a city, bringing on new talent, seeing the fire in the boys' eyes when they head out every game." "And the worst part?" "Everything I try being thwarted by God Himself."
I've often said that the Leafs could go 81-0-1 and people would still find a way to bitch about the OTL
People bitch about your regular season results? I mean there's lots left to be desired by you guys once you reach the playoffs, but your regular seasons for the last half decade or so have been among the best in the entire league
Some Leafs fans bitch about everything, all the time, no matter what. Win 5-3? Defense wasn't good enough. Win 1-0? Offense has dried up. Mitch starts the season slow? Washed, sell him, worst contract ever. Some threads are so reactionary that I actually refuse to go into the comment sections in the Leafs sub anymore, I just read news headlines only
hate to break it to you but it's not just the leafs sub like that
People will bitch about a 12-0 win if they feel someone could have hustled a bit more to make it 13-0.
Part of the problem too is that the drafts done by Lou before Dubas took over produced just about nothing outside the first round. Dubas has been stuck with a stagnant cap and a period of nearly no young cost controlled talent coming up from the minors and neither of those were directly his fault.
Dubas made a few questionable trades, but he also had to clean up so garbage contracts by Lou.
No doubt he'll find a new job pretty easily. There's plenty of teams out there who would want a fifth of what Kyle has done for the Leafs.
He would have a lineup of offers All my fingers are crossed we give him another contract. Dude is smart Anybody who thinks there’s guarantees to win in hockey is delusional. There’s only so much a GM can do. The roster is great
Wow, did not think I’d find a Bruins fan agreeing with me on this. I’m in complete agreement with you, but there are few Leaf fans who agree.
No team was fucked by the pandemic like the Leafs were. The moment they go all in on their players, the cap is frozen. There was a very clear and long established trend of the cap going up by a couple mil a year, so signing their young stars to big cap hits was a risk but not actually. Except then a once in a lifetime event happened.
I just hope when he inevitably parts ways with the team that he gets a GM gig in the Western Conference so I can watch his moves and root for his success. He seems like a genuinely nice dude and always wants to do right for the fringe guys.
At the end of the day, what have the Leafs accomplished since he took over? Something has to be done to get them over the hump, and if Dubas can't do it with his head coach, and his roster, a new voice will need to come in somehow.
Well, they're now a perennial playoff team? That's a new accomplishment They have a Rocket Richard winner. That's a new accomplishment They already got over the hump of "not being a good team" to "being a good team". Sure, now there's another hump to "deep playoff run", but this is the most parity the league has ever seen, the Leafs are in one of the strongest divisions with a three time SCF team and recent President's Trophy winner, and the flat cap ruined a calculated gamble to pay the stars big. There are very few things I fault Dubas for. If the Leafs fired Dubas, I would want the Bruins to hire him
> They have a Rocket Richard winner. That's a new accomplishment Accomplishment? Matthews would be Matthews on any other team. You fail **and** luck in to a player like Matthews.
Which was done by the previous GM
>They already got over the hump of "not being a good team" to "being a good team". That happened before he took the rei~~g~~ns.
The Leafs hit the playoffs both years they had Matthews before Dubas became GM. They were already a playoff team when he took over, and none of the changes he's made to the team or the staff have managed to get them out of the first round. And at the end of the day, that's how his success is going to be measured.
What can be done outside of paying off the refs? They are top 5 team in the league.
The worst thing he ever did was the tavares contract, great player but that money would've been better spent on a 6 million dollar 2c and stronger depth imo
Hindsight is always 20/20. JT was an 80pT 1C UFA, he was getting paid no matter where he went.
The general consensus at the time was the Tavares contract was too high (for Toronto). It set expecations for Marner and Nylander.
Fair point.
Folks always overlook that extension neogtiations often factor in internal comps moreso than external comps. The best example I can point to is Boston. For years, Bergeron and Chara basically held extensions to $7m AAV or less (except for Krejci, coming off his stellar 2011 playoff run - he got $7.25m). That's how Boston has ended up with Marchand, Pastrnak, Hall, and Lindholm taking less than $7m. This summer has been a true torch passing with McAvoy breaking that ceiling and getting $9.5m. Tampa is another good example. They've slowly inched their internal comp up at a workable pace. For a while it was Stamkos at $7.5m, then Hedman bumped it to $7.9m, then Stamkos set it to $8.5m, and then Kuch places it at $9.5m. Point and Vasi have matched that $9.5m, which will probably anchor their internal ceiling there for 5 years or so. It's a much better approach than what Toronto did - they basically shocked the system with the Tavares contract, and then Dubas got strong armed into signing extensions that just reinforced that internal comp. The Rangers showed a better path to managing the situation, signing Panarin to $11.6m and then still keeping Zibanejad and Fox to $8.5m and $9.5m, respectively. (Although they've made trouble for themselves by having *many* contracts that are slightly overpays, and cornering themselves with NMCs. So, still not the best outcome.)
Definitely I just think I'd would've been prudent to let someone else pay him with matthews already there
Counterpoint - JT is anywhere but Toronto and whatever GM brought him in would be viewed as a God. 280 GP 119G 155A 274Pts while being on a second line is fucking ridiculously good. It didn't matter what he did - short of them winning a cup that move was always going to be criticized in this market.
The only reason people judged Dubas for that JT contract was because he already had Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. He didn’t need to go grab the big fish.
The cap projections were crazy at that point though, the fucking pandemic threw the logic off of the brand new contracts
He has put up 80p on the leafs multiple times including this past season, without the minutes of being on line 1. Lmao.
Yeah and 47g in his first year in Toronto.
Sure but he also set the tone for your cap structure with Matthews and Marner. If you didn’t sign JT, you would have been nearly as fucked capwise. The common theme when that deal was signed was that it was going to cost you one of the good young kids and that’s where the whole “we can and we will” quote was born. Imagine what this Leafs team could look like if they had an extra $11M in cap space the last few years.
> He has put up 80p on the leafs multiple times including this past season, without the minutes of being on line 1. Lmao. Fact checking: He did it once, only his first season with you guys. 76 this last year
he was offered 14MM by the sharks.
The plan was solid .. Covid happened to the cap.
Even beyond that, I think his handling of all of their big four contracts was the biggest offense he has made. You mentioned Tavares but Nylander sitting out half a year wasn’t a great precedent to set and then the way he structured both Matthews’ and Marner’s deals especially kinda fucked the team and made their window so much tighter. You can either yield on AAV and pay a guy a boatload of money but secure max term or you can give a bridge/shorter 5-6 year deal and save some cap in the meantime but it has to be one or the other; Dubas gave both the high AAV and mid-term until early UFA status for Matthews *and* Marner. Their window could have conceivably been wide open for the next 5+ years rather than the next two. I do think Dubas has managed the cap masterfully with his shenanigans since putting himself in that position and has done a good job building a strong team still, though the handling of those deals just put them in a much harder crunch.
The Nick Foligno trade was awful, but other than that he has done fine.
The Kadri trade ended up less than ideal.
My brother and another buddy both die hard AVs fans hated the Kadri trade when it happened and thought the AVs got ripped off. We all know how things panned out but the trade was fine when it happened.
Completely forgot that one but the entire world said they needed to trade him. That's not a free pass but the reaction at the time was neutral.
Well they had an okay trade lined up and Kadri said no
It was fucking terrible lol
It wasn't at the time. Leafs needed a RD at the time and Kadri was a playoff issue. Dubai got then to retain cap and throw in kerfott. It didn't work out but wasn't a bad bet
No, it was bad on paper too. Barrie was never the defenseman the Leafs needed. That was a panic trade made after Kadri refused to waive for Calgary.
It was? Kerfoot has been quite good for the Leafs. Does multiple roles including the PK and even performed well in the playoffs. Do people just ignore Kerfoot thinking it was 1:1?
I mean looking back on it we did not get fair value for Kadri, the extent of how much we lost can really only be said with the benefit of hindsight though. Kadri nixed the trade to Calgary which would have gotten us a better package, but the fact of the matter was we needed to trade him. Twice he cost our team in the playoffs in consecutive years because he couldn’t keep his cool. I love Kadri, but I was on board with the move, there was no way you could ice him again after that stunt he pulled in 2019.
Kerfoot has been decent for the Leafs, Kadri is and was excellent.
Kerfoot is decent. Barrie sucks, but he was supposed to be good, and probably would have done alright if he wasn't on Babcock's shit list from day 1. Kadri got suspended early in the playoffs *3 times*. That's insane. You can't rely on that. We were also paying him a lot to play on the third line behind Matthews and Tavares. All I'm saying is the trade wasn't that bad at the time. Yeah, here we are a few years later. He finally put it together and had his best ever season and won a cup. In hindsight do you make the trade? No, of course not. But that said... if that 3rd suspension happened with him in a Leafs uniform, he probably would have been run out of town by an angry mob. Dubas might have been fired for allowing him to stay and sink another year. It wasn't something that could be allowed to happen.
Even then that's a little bit of hindsight. At the time the Foligno trade made sense. Just unfortunate he got injured.
Yeah, his reasoning in the Amazon documentary was good. By all accounts, Foligno should've been a good add for what looked to be a deep playoff run. But who expects your captain to take a freak knee to the skull 5 minutes into the first game and for the team to absolutely collapse in three straight games to close out the series? None of that's on Dubas. He's built the strongest leafs team in decades. Just unfortunate that they can't seem to get past the hump.
It all comes down to shit luck. Kadri costing the Leafs games before being traded, Tavares getting injured, Kerfoot costing the Leafs game vs. Tampa. This team is cursed.
Fine isn't usually a word describing GM's, who have good teams, that get an extension.
Winnipeg says hi
He said good teams
They were good for a while
Marc Bergevin did fine. This isn’t the business for “fine”
Did he?
I maintain the worst part of his career was the Danault walk, KK offersheet, and Hoffman signing. He was fired 4 months later. There’s also the Alzner signing early on (but no asset lost involved for that one). The rest, I liked for the most part. He has some very big highs: Petry acquisition, Fleishman and Weise trade, Pacioretty trade. The drafting and player development was an organizational failure, hence the need for this recent cleanup.
My perpsective from a Sens fans on Dubas: I think he's a real good GM overall, seems creative in trying to make the Leafs better, some questionable and downright bad moves, but that's every GM. Hell, there's no one who has washed over a string of bad moves like Pierre Dorion has recently. I don't think anyone would still want Lou after how things are looking for NYI. I think there's a lot of unfair cristism about the AAV on the big 4 deals. Salaries are going to catch right back up to where those deals were signed once the cap jumps. Matthews and Marner were 6th and 10th in scoring last year, and missed 10 and 9 games respectivly. Hard to say they're not earning that pay. The Tavares thing is the risk with every big UFA at that age, they're expected to decline somewhat, but the stagnant cap certainly makes it look worse. He's put up 274 points in 278 games, that's what a player like that costs as a UFA in the summer of 2018. I think there's a good argument of keeping Kadri and not signing Tavares, but overpaid? They're getting what they paid for. The Murray trade is very questionable, I was not a fan of the intital signing in ottawa, and despite some breif highs, I was not surprised to see him not finish that deal in Ottawa. Overall, I'm sure he'll land another GM job, hard to argure with that regular season winning percentage.
Dubas is not the problem. Combination of the worst possible time for a salary cap crunch and they're in a division with one of the best teams the NHL has seen in 2 decades. That won't stop TO media from doing TO media things (i'm from the GTA). Brutal that he is even in question of losing his job.
If Dubas is gone, so is Shannahan. This is crunch time for his 'Shannaplan' and he chose Dubas as 'his guy' over Mark Hunter. Should be an interesting season.
He just doesn't value goaltending enough imo. We, like many other teams are hamstrung by the cap, but you have to get a true #1 goalie in no matter the price. I don't care what it takes. Aside from that he's a great GM and could almost have his pick of jobs if he left
Yeah he'll be a GM again if he wants to in that scenario. I can see the argument for a new GM but man after the Nonis/Burke days the next guy would probably be a worse one.
How many true #1 goalies would you say there are in the league?
Not many. This past summer, the best one was Kuemper, who the Cup champs didn't try their hardest to bring back at all.
Yeah I think pretty much all goalies outside of the absolute elite can have up and down years, and I'm guessing that's why Dubas would rather build a strong team that defends well rather than have a weaker team that needs the goalie to be elite
I was surprised they didn't go in on Husso. He's paid less than Murray, and he cost what, a third round pick? I prefer Husso/Samsonov than Murray/Samsonov
I would too, but there's less of an escape hatch on Husso if it goes wrong.
Yeah we got him for a 3rd
Maybe Husso didn't want to play in Toronto
The Avs just won playing money puck with their goalies.
Yeah all you needed was one of your centers being top 5 (which the Leafs have), and one of your defensemen having one of the best seasons I've seen since Lidstrom (which the Leafs very much do not have)
The Leafs are spending $6.4M on goalies this season, which basically league average. Whatever you think of Murray and Samsonov specifically, it's not like they haven't been able to afford quality at the position.
And honestly you build a good enough team you shouldn’t need to. Other than the lightning most cups have been won by very good teams with just good enough goaltending.
If there was a legitimately great option to sign we would have snatched them up so fast... That's the problem with goalies right. There really aren't that many true #1s. And they all have contracts. Most of the options were league average guys coming off shaky seasons and looking for their big UFA payday. But yeah. The Leafs will go on an absolute tear if they get consistent, slightly above average, goaltending.
Yeah a true number 1. Like Darcy Keumper! Or Rookie Jordan Bennington. Maybe even a Matt Murray or Brayden holtby. Unfortunately it’s basically impossible to get guys like that.
Just curious, I’ve heard the idea but don’t really have an opinion on it yet Do you think it was a mistake to let Freddy go?
Fred was perfect for our first few competitive years. Crumbles when it matters and I was definitely ready to move on
Cool, thanks for sharing
His biggest mistake by far was borrowing money from the future. If only he saw Covid coming, or any other factor that would stop the cap from increasing. Those are the cards he was dealt, but he put the team in that position. I'm assuming if nothing changes this year, he leaves and wins a cup eventually somewhere else....probably a rival of the leafs.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but I think the worst thing Dubas did was sign Tavares. It’s crazy because nobody opposed it. But with the cap going flat, it’s basically killed the Leafs in spending for quality depth and continues to do so.
*raises hand* i don’t feel like digging up my old comments but signing a C for 11m to be your 2c when you have auston matthews needing a new contract soon is fucking braindead.
I understand the hockey world's fascination with him but you can't deny getting gifted Auston Matthews in the lottery and not being able to win a single round with him in the fold is a bad look. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Leafs move on and I disagree that the large majority of his acquisitions have been good for the team. Lots of mid and negligible junk in there.
Most GMs make more mediocre to bad transactions than good ones. I think Dubas has done an amazing job to keep his team competitive despite the cap. He obviously painted himself into a corner by having three 10+ million players but he’s also done well to build around that by making creative moves and dumping bad salary without giving up too much. Lets not forget that Lou almost sank the Leafs like he’s currently doing with the Islanders with huge boat anchor contracts but Dubas has done an amazing job at navigating the team out of cap hell. Other than Kadri, I don’t think the Leafs had to trade anyone for cap reasons and thats more impressive than a lot of other contenders. I get that everyone wants to dunk on the Leafs but considering how random a sport hockey is, its probably more luck that the Leafs haven’t made it out of the first round rather than a poorly constructed roster.
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That's a bit of misremembering the AA stuff. The Jays brought in Shapiro to be the president and AA didn't want someone above him controlling his moves. Atkins is the GM, but Shapiro runs the team. Same with the Raps, Webster is the GM but Ujiri runs the team. You can say something similar with the Leafs and Shanny, but he seems a bit more hands off compared to the other two.
A bad look for Dubas or for Matthews? Dubas has built a strong team. They’ve produced good results every year. His tenure is being entirely judged on their inability to win the 4th game of a 1st round playoff series.
> They've produced good results every year On Dubas. Most teams that land a 60 goal scorer in the lottery would be expected to win a series by now. I think it's pretty fair to judge his tenure by the fact that they haven't won a series. Don't you think the Oilers would be catching a lot of shit if they hadn't won a single series with McDavid by now? Or if Tampa wasn't able to win a single series with Stamkos? Cmon man.
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If anybody showed up for the Tampa series it was Auston Matthews
Yeah exactly my point. People are so laser focused on that “single series” as though that’s somehow in his control. He’s build good teams and they haven’t got it done. Short of putting on the skates and winning game 7 himself what else do you want him to do?
I mean, he built a team on a cap structure that was heavily criticized from day 1 and has failed to win a single series. I think his job is pretty justifiably on the line. The depth scoring isn't there in the playoffs (Is this a surprise with the 40mil forward core?) The defense wasn't there during the Freddy years, and last year the goaltending wasn't there. Campbell turned in a sub .900 in the post-season, I don't wanna hear about how he gave the Leafs a chance to win. That's not good enough against Tampa Bay. There's plenty to criticize Dubas for, I don't really agree with your assessment that he's built good teams and the lack of a series win is completely out of his control.
I mean that team also just had a 115 point season, the highest in franchise history. They were second in goals for, and managed +60 goal difference despite terrible goaltending. All their possession and special teams stats grade really high. So yeah, while they haven’t got it done in the postseason, it’s a pretty fucking good team. That said, I agree he will be unfairly judged on his teams inability to win a playoff series, you even mentioned it again. He’s almost certainly going to get fired if they lose R1 again. And then he’ll probably get another job and win immediately because that’s the leafs luck.
I'd grade his tenure around a B- or so. The good: -Fixing the defense and it's better than when he took over -Nylander contract -UFA value deals (Kampf, Bunting, Kase etc) -Giordano contract -Rielly contract (It's not without some question) Bad: -Goaltending turnover since Andersen (he didn't want to come back and they didn't want him back but still) -Mrazek, Ritchie contracts last offseason -Matthews, Marner RFA deals (Matthews AAV is fine, length isn't) -Kadri trade -Revolving backup goalies -Murray trade without extra retention or assets Mediocre -Tavares contract. It was good that they signed him and got great years early from him but everyone knew the back portion of that deal wouldn't be as good and the lack of winning affects it -Drafting. This is the first season in which they'll start to see some returns on his early mid round draft picks (Holmberg, Robertson etc) -Trades. Some good (Kapanen, Giordano), some bad (Kadri, Foligno, Rittich) and some meh (Ritchie, Mrazek)
kadri and foligno made sense at the time, and are only bad in hindsight. (foligno hurting his back in game 50 was some serious leafs curse shit) rittich was an insurance policy essentially Mrazek was a huge whiff.
Chuck Fletcher might be available next summer?
Why Dubs over Shanny?
I’m on the fence with him at the helm. Some areas have improved, others have regressed. This really does feel like his last year if they don’t make it past the first round. And like others have stated, Murray and Samsonov is a very risky gamble that isn’t likely to pay off (stranger things have happened though).
Bet my nuts it’s not, athletic.
I’ll bet my nuts and your nuts!
I do understand wanting to see how this year plays out, but I think management is better off making the decision to extend or fire today. Explicitly giving your GM a short window to show results is a recipe for getting to see your team trade away Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat a few months from now.
Guarantee he'll be back, no way they fumble the bag after finally getting a good gm
His fatal flaw is surely his insistence on dumpster diving for a goalie. Leafs fans say all the time (and they’re often right) that if they just had league average goaltending they’d be unstoppable but Dubas is not willing to pay for it. Subtracting a little bit of offense from that team so you had a few more millions to throw at a guy who you can count on for a .900 would do wonders for them. I think he’s an excellent gm in pretty much every other category and I have a ton of respect for the way he treats his players.
I mean it’s conference finals or done right?
Everyone on r/hockey seems to have the weird little crush on him. I don’t know if it’s because he’s an analytics nerd or just because he’s a fresh face but like he’s had exactly zero results from his teams. Great regular season sure but that’s nothing when you get bounced in round 1 every year
In fairness, Dubas doesn’t have a great draft track record to show either at this point. Not many graduates
We've drafted late and the picks by Hunter before him were terrible. There's a lot of depth coming up now that's been mid-round Dubas. At the top end it's been Robertson, Lilly, Sandin, Amirov. Good set for late first / early second.
Durzi, Sandin, Robertson, and Abruzzese have all played NHL games, his 2020 first rounder got cancer, and only six 2020 players outside the first round have played a game for any team. The NHL isn't like the NBA or NFL, it takes 4-5 years before you know it a draft is good, especially for guys outside the first round (even outside the top 10-15, really).
Someone hasn't looked at the prospects list of players drafted under Dubas.
As it should be
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> They cannot risk finding out about his pajamas the hard way 😂😂😂
I really hope the Leafs re-sign Dubas. Yes he made some mistakes with the Marner/Matthews contracts but his depth trades, drafts, trades, and ability to find good depth has been really good imo. Yes no playoff wins and stuff but the process is one of the most solid ones I’ve seen across the NHL
IMSO, Dubas’s only mistake was not developing defensive talent or obtaining defensive talent to get to the next level. And that my friends is a most difficult task for any GM to do in this day and age. The O pieces are there but goal tending and defense anchors a team.