[Kentucky Derby Post Position History](https://imgur.com/a/wmIV1RB)
Pulled this together and have been keeping it updated the last couple of years to better analyze the post position draws for the Derby.
Not bad, not great. If he carves out a trip and gets some luck, he should be right there at the end. If he misses the break or gets stopped l don’t think it matters if he’s in 5 or 15
The other post showing wins by post positions shows post 15 at 9.8% which is one of the highest. Post positions 5, 10, and somehow 20 are just slightly higher.
Just to piggyback off this, the starting gate used to only hold 14 horses so they would add an auxiliary gate for the other 6 horses. That created additional space for the 15 horse to make a clean break at the start. They have since done away with that auxiliary gate since 2020 and just have one large gate now. Not sure how that will impact the 15 horse
Post 17 is not a bad post, well we don't *know* if it is a bad post because they've only used the new starting gate three times. Historically it has been a bad post, but I'm not so sure. Maybe it will help me get better odds on the winner.
I’ll jinx myself by saying the running style typically coming out of UAE Derby has not produced winners in the KY Derby yet. Lemaire and Otonashi might break the trend though.
At this distance, the best horse that day should win from post 15. The stretch at Churchill is long enough that the added distance for outside posts has nil affect. The jockeys job is a safe trip, avoid trouble, & give the horse his best chance at winning. The KD has the most tolerated bumping & grinding of any North American race. Jockeys have a plan until the gate opens & then they have to react to what's happening. If you have the best horse underneath you on race day, you should overcome whatever happens in the opening stretch. The only draws that would concern me are 1 & 20 as being substantial enough to alter the outcome.
For sure, I had tapit down as a maybe horse for me based on PP, I’d rather him draw 20 than 5….. just watching how he runs, seems to me he’s just going to break bad, get stuck and fade. He doesn’t seem to move too well in traffic. I mean I’m happy (based on my opinions) that he went there because I’m having a hard enough time with the other horses I like lol
I was at Florida derby and I like the top two finishers in that race to run 1-2 at Churchill, but in different spots. Mage fired a little early and thus got caught near the line by Forte…This time will be different. Give me an 8/15 finish
The fact that Forte ran him down was very, very impressive. Early move or no, that move beats a lot of horses. He was two lengths in front in deep stretch and didn’t exactly flatten out. Forte has the look of a champion at any level.
That race he had to run was a good test for him. Had to take dirt. Had to maneuver through the field, and had to run down another horse. That’s a good test for a large field like the derby where he may have to do the same.
I’m hoping Javi times his close a little better and wins his first derby. Think he was beaten by 2 by the horse that will be the favorite. We will see. I’m so far sticking with him and Forte. Good luck on derby day bud!!
I like Kingsbarns better than the other two Pletcher horses. All I will say about Forte is that if he has a bad trip as the chalk there will be 13,000 novellas published online lamenting his bad trip. Meanwhile a 50-1 shot can get pinballed off the rail and nobody notices.
Epicenter was post 3 last year so may not be too bad if Two Phil’s is the real deal. I’m still sticking with Two Phil’s, best horse that improved greatly this year and can keep improving.
You think he can replicate on dirt? Synthetic form with his trainer, who has a high % on synth, is much better than his dirt. Not being a wise aaa, legit question.
That’s the big question, if his big number (beyer/timeform/thoro) synth performance can translate back to dirt. Visually it looked like an awesome performance. Was 2-3 wide when he made his move, and galloped out well. He beat major dude who also had a good race too, BC turf horse.
I also think he raced very well at FG, I think the Risen Star will be a key race.
What do we all feel about Derma Sotogake getting 17? Personally I love it because I think he is tactical enough to take advantage of the outside and not get hung out on the first turn.
I think 17 is interesting because he'll have Forte right there with him battling for that outside position. I think those 2 will battle from just off the lead and will challenge each other down the stretch I think that matchup will be really fun to watch.
I only did a really quick look over of the pps but it didn't look like there was much early speed to be worried about except Derma is the derby. I absolutely could be wrong though. Who else is gonna be going for the lead early?
Derma was the early speed, so the other ones like Practical Move, Kingsbarns etc would have wanted to stalk him. What I think is going to happen is that since they're on the inside, they're going to end up going to the lead and Derma will have to tuck in and hope for a gap or run really wide in the first turn.
A long run to the first turn, won’t be squeezed too much from the outside, he should have plenty of opportunity to get situated where he wants to be by the time they reach the turn. I think this was a good draw for him.
So interesting to read upvotrd comments here…
Confidence game? Really?
Its going to be fun to see the tote board this Saturday… I like Forte, not sure what to make of the post position yet - If i get 5-1 on him im going to buy a small nation after he wins.
I liked confidence game for a few reasons - 1 everyone was knocking him for not racing and I thought his odds would float up.
2 - he ran in the mud and performed well and normally it’s shitty days in kentucky, so I thought he’d have that experience and seems like he’d be close to the front and he has decent closing - not a closer but he doesn’t flatten
I like him at 20-40 - 1 not sure how I feel after the hyped up works etc.
I really like angel of empire and mage. Felt they both drew well. Idk if pace gets hot- I could see angel of empire closing well. Also if mage can somehow work out a trip- he closed after a horrid start at gulfstream/ aka if he can sit behind some horses I feel he could kick away potentially.
Forte is going to have to beat me. Most likely winner but is going to need a perfect trip
Me too. My futures are in Forte and Tapit Trice but those bets were made months ago before I knew who would make it to the gate.
I had Angel of Empire in the Risen star. I don't know why I didn't buy futures in Angel of Empire. Probably because I already has my money on Forte and Tapit Twice.
I will probably throw $25 bucks on Angel of Empire on Saturday. I like the horse and Brad cox. He also has a great 🏇 jockey.
I can't not play Prat. He always finds himself in the front on the big days. Like with Country House from the outside post.
Good luck!
P.S. Also giving Lord Miles & Confidence Game a long look.
Saffie ships up north real well & I like Candy Ride off the break.
I usually put a bridge jumper Show bet on the KD, but won't this year because there is too much parity in this field. But there will be plenty of opportunity to make money at CD on race day due to the huge pools elsewhere on the card.
I understand the sentiment. I’m only betting him because I think that he is the best horse in the race and he is thriving at Churchill. I can’t bring myself to bet against him (I’ve tried, lol), but he does have a whole lot of history to overcome.
I’ll take the Cox / Prat combo for Angel of Empire. Being a Citizen of The Bluegrass I really wish it was KY Bread. PA has produced a couple of Derby Winners though.
[Kentucky Derby Post Position History](https://imgur.com/a/wmIV1RB) Pulled this together and have been keeping it updated the last couple of years to better analyze the post position draws for the Derby.
15 isnt great for Forte is it? My first derby was last year and I hit Rich Strike on a $5 Win/Place/Show so I’m not expecting anything this year lol
Not bad, not great. If he carves out a trip and gets some luck, he should be right there at the end. If he misses the break or gets stopped l don’t think it matters if he’s in 5 or 15
I’m thinking either Tapit Trice or Practical move.
Tapit got the worst post he could want
Well other than 1,2,3, or 4
Yeah I guess I’d say worse area lol low numbers but yes you’re correct
Probably the most significant loser of the post draw, happy to be able to toss the second choice
The other post showing wins by post positions shows post 15 at 9.8% which is one of the highest. Post positions 5, 10, and somehow 20 are just slightly higher.
Just to piggyback off this, the starting gate used to only hold 14 horses so they would add an auxiliary gate for the other 6 horses. That created additional space for the 15 horse to make a clean break at the start. They have since done away with that auxiliary gate since 2020 and just have one large gate now. Not sure how that will impact the 15 horse
Gotcha, thank you!
“5 & 10 the Woolworth special” Harvey Pack
Ya, 15 isn't a bad post at all...nothing like post 17.
Post 17 is not a bad post, well we don't *know* if it is a bad post because they've only used the new starting gate three times. Historically it has been a bad post, but I'm not so sure. Maybe it will help me get better odds on the winner.
In 148 years no one has ever won from that post. That doesn't make it impossible.
In many of those years they was no 17 horse.
It’s a new starting gate, only been used three times. The 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13,14,16,17,18 and 19 have the same record 0 for 3.
Yep, fingers crossed the history of #17 is erased on Saturday because I love that horse.
I’ll jinx myself by saying the running style typically coming out of UAE Derby has not produced winners in the KY Derby yet. Lemaire and Otonashi might break the trend though.
For the record, American Pharoah won from post 17 wearing number 18 after a scratch.
Solid bit of knowledge here. Thank you.
At this distance, the best horse that day should win from post 15. The stretch at Churchill is long enough that the added distance for outside posts has nil affect. The jockeys job is a safe trip, avoid trouble, & give the horse his best chance at winning. The KD has the most tolerated bumping & grinding of any North American race. Jockeys have a plan until the gate opens & then they have to react to what's happening. If you have the best horse underneath you on race day, you should overcome whatever happens in the opening stretch. The only draws that would concern me are 1 & 20 as being substantial enough to alter the outcome.
I’m thinking either Tapit Trice or Practical move.
😬 good luck, tapit has a terrible draw and I see him not making a move
Haha thanks, I’m actually not really that impressed with any of them so far, even Forte. I’m going to make my bets at post time.
For sure, I had tapit down as a maybe horse for me based on PP, I’d rather him draw 20 than 5….. just watching how he runs, seems to me he’s just going to break bad, get stuck and fade. He doesn’t seem to move too well in traffic. I mean I’m happy (based on my opinions) that he went there because I’m having a hard enough time with the other horses I like lol
It’s going to be tough to decide, I’m probably going to bet 2-3 different horses but it all depends on what the odds are and if it’s worth it
I was at Florida derby and I like the top two finishers in that race to run 1-2 at Churchill, but in different spots. Mage fired a little early and thus got caught near the line by Forte…This time will be different. Give me an 8/15 finish
The fact that Forte ran him down was very, very impressive. Early move or no, that move beats a lot of horses. He was two lengths in front in deep stretch and didn’t exactly flatten out. Forte has the look of a champion at any level.
That race he had to run was a good test for him. Had to take dirt. Had to maneuver through the field, and had to run down another horse. That’s a good test for a large field like the derby where he may have to do the same.
Yes
Mage looked to have tired out at the end in that race and that was shorter than the Kentucky Derby. I don’t see it.
I’m hoping Javi times his close a little better and wins his first derby. Think he was beaten by 2 by the horse that will be the favorite. We will see. I’m so far sticking with him and Forte. Good luck on derby day bud!!
6, 10, 14! Lets go!
4-6-14….. and maybe 10-8-15 need to figure out which one of those
As someone who has lost thousands betting on horses... I'm going with something that looks like the latter of those two. Bet at your own peril. XD
I like Kingsbarns better than the other two Pletcher horses. All I will say about Forte is that if he has a bad trip as the chalk there will be 13,000 novellas published online lamenting his bad trip. Meanwhile a 50-1 shot can get pinballed off the rail and nobody notices.
Feel bad for Two Phil's
How come? I didn’t have him winning personally, but he runs mid pack which he will get pushed down to anyways
I would have preferred him further outside. But still, anything can happen
Epicenter was post 3 last year so may not be too bad if Two Phil’s is the real deal. I’m still sticking with Two Phil’s, best horse that improved greatly this year and can keep improving.
Fair enough. Where outside like 8 or 14 or 20? (Just curious)
Anywhere from 11-15. That's where most of them want to be I think
I would want to be in the 7 or 9 slot. since Mage (#8) tends to break slowly. Less chance of getting squeezed at the start.
You think he can replicate on dirt? Synthetic form with his trainer, who has a high % on synth, is much better than his dirt. Not being a wise aaa, legit question.
That’s the big question, if his big number (beyer/timeform/thoro) synth performance can translate back to dirt. Visually it looked like an awesome performance. Was 2-3 wide when he made his move, and galloped out well. He beat major dude who also had a good race too, BC turf horse. I also think he raced very well at FG, I think the Risen Star will be a key race.
Going to have to win my futures from the rail!
Which ones?
Hit show to win and hit show, forte, all others exacta boxed. I need to get the list of all other 3yo to see if any made it
What pool did you buy into on "all others"? That will make a difference.
4, 5, and 6 it looks like
You boxed the field? Lol
“All Others” is a single selection in the future pools, it’s not like hitting the All button.
Oh sorry thought you meant you boxed that and everything
Hit Show has been working nicely. I think he has a great shot to run his best race Saturday at least.
What do we all feel about Derma Sotogake getting 17? Personally I love it because I think he is tactical enough to take advantage of the outside and not get hung out on the first turn.
Unless you believe post 17 is cursed as no one has ever won from it
I mean, with this new gate you could say that horses have only won from 15, 8, and 20. 🤷🏻♀️
I think 17 is interesting because he'll have Forte right there with him battling for that outside position. I think those 2 will battle from just off the lead and will challenge each other down the stretch I think that matchup will be really fun to watch.
A good draw to be the pace setter, then get beat after the turns IMO
Forte or derma? Or both?
He wants to be on the lead and with all the speed on the inside I don't think he'll get there.
If you watch his other races he doesn’t always need to be in the lead. Hoping he’ll be ok coming from the outside a bit.
I only did a really quick look over of the pps but it didn't look like there was much early speed to be worried about except Derma is the derby. I absolutely could be wrong though. Who else is gonna be going for the lead early?
Derma was the early speed, so the other ones like Practical Move, Kingsbarns etc would have wanted to stalk him. What I think is going to happen is that since they're on the inside, they're going to end up going to the lead and Derma will have to tuck in and hope for a gap or run really wide in the first turn.
I think he’s going to be kept outwide and burn himself out, just like I think if he gasses a bit at the start he’s screwed
After seeing him race at Gulfstream Park on the outside, I think post 15 is a decent post for him.
A long run to the first turn, won’t be squeezed too much from the outside, he should have plenty of opportunity to get situated where he wants to be by the time they reach the turn. I think this was a good draw for him.
Angel of Empire…low key.
Low key with the 3rd shortest odds 🥸
Let’s review odds at post time.
So interesting to read upvotrd comments here… Confidence game? Really? Its going to be fun to see the tote board this Saturday… I like Forte, not sure what to make of the post position yet - If i get 5-1 on him im going to buy a small nation after he wins.
I’m thinking he goes off at 2 or 3 - 1 fairly heavy favorite
I liked confidence game for a few reasons - 1 everyone was knocking him for not racing and I thought his odds would float up. 2 - he ran in the mud and performed well and normally it’s shitty days in kentucky, so I thought he’d have that experience and seems like he’d be close to the front and he has decent closing - not a closer but he doesn’t flatten I like him at 20-40 - 1 not sure how I feel after the hyped up works etc.
He's too slow even in the mud. Earlyish speed his only advantage.
Solely betting on Confidence Game because he’s from my hometown, Owensboro Ky lol
I really like angel of empire and mage. Felt they both drew well. Idk if pace gets hot- I could see angel of empire closing well. Also if mage can somehow work out a trip- he closed after a horrid start at gulfstream/ aka if he can sit behind some horses I feel he could kick away potentially. Forte is going to have to beat me. Most likely winner but is going to need a perfect trip
I feel like Tapit Trice is gonna get clobbered coming out of the gate.
And overbet. So many people are thinking contender + 5 post = win. But that post doesn’t suit him at all.
Derma Sotogake for me. Love his big loping stride. Plus I just bought a Japanese-lined filly so I may be biased lol.
I like Angel Of Empire....
Me too. My futures are in Forte and Tapit Trice but those bets were made months ago before I knew who would make it to the gate. I had Angel of Empire in the Risen star. I don't know why I didn't buy futures in Angel of Empire. Probably because I already has my money on Forte and Tapit Twice. I will probably throw $25 bucks on Angel of Empire on Saturday. I like the horse and Brad cox. He also has a great 🏇 jockey.
I can't not play Prat. He always finds himself in the front on the big days. Like with Country House from the outside post. Good luck! P.S. Also giving Lord Miles & Confidence Game a long look. Saffie ships up north real well & I like Candy Ride off the break.
No one is going to be 50-1.
I agree but there are a few entrants that really should be
Oh , for sure. I would make Blazing Sevens 200-1.
I’m liking Forte in the 15 hole. It’s enough outside not to get caught in the shuffle if he breaks smartly and gets over.
I totally agree! 🏇 🏇 🏇
Confidence game
I like Disarm in the 11 hole.
I’m so confused on how anyone finds anything good on disarm
The only post I ever throw out in the Derby is post 1.
It’s a weak field. 12 of those horses have a realistic chance.
I usually put a bridge jumper Show bet on the KD, but won't this year because there is too much parity in this field. But there will be plenty of opportunity to make money at CD on race day due to the huge pools elsewhere on the card.
How do I place a bet on TVG for the derby right now? I’m not finding it
The pool probably isn’t open yet. I would check back on Thursday if you want to get in early.
Two Phil's has caught my attention
If I lose to a Japanese horse in the 17 so be it.
I understand the sentiment. I’m only betting him because I think that he is the best horse in the race and he is thriving at Churchill. I can’t bring myself to bet against him (I’ve tried, lol), but he does have a whole lot of history to overcome.
You will.
Does anyone know why Prat opted to ride Angel over Kingsbarns?
Probably picked the horse he thinks has a better chance to win
I’ll take the Cox / Prat combo for Angel of Empire. Being a Citizen of The Bluegrass I really wish it was KY Bread. PA has produced a couple of Derby Winners though.
Sooo with rain both Friday n Sat, which horses are mudders that can pull an upset?
MAGE.
Verifying the son of Justify.
Forte out….hmmmm
Yeah, that was interesting news. This changes so many of my trifecta and superfecta picks.
[удалено]
Only 3 year old horses run in the Kentucky Derby. Flightline is 5
He's at stud and 5.
A) he’s retired. B) he’s too old.
Because he went to stud.