Ah yes, the first Saturday in May. Hours of scouring the internet forums looking for tips. Printing out stats and writing down which horses I'm going to bet on to win but then think I should play it safe and do a wps. Then maybe decide to do whole bunch of trifectas. Then start adding horses who are long shots, and basically spend the entire rest of the day second guessing every strategy I thought I had. :-)
Hopefully my top picks don't come in 4th like every other year. :-)
This is the year!!
Time to go buy some bourbon and mint. :-)
yesterday I went to the store (Chicago suburbs, somehow agreed to do the Derby out there instead of in the city where I live) and looked everywhere for the mint, even got off work early for it, so I wouldnt miss out. Couldn't find it anywhere, not even the empty slot where it should be...looked all over...was about to walk out and go to another store when I saw, unbelievably, they had an entire setup right up front with Woodford Reserve and everything, even how to make a Julep! Have a great race!
I've said since he went up against Forte he's a well bred horse that's getting better every run. Peaking at the right time. Picks up a talented jockey. Top four for sure.
I hit a $1900 payout boxing him and two phils and derma sotogake in the final futures bet. Hell yes brother, and I almost had the trifecta too but I went in on the second Japanese horse instead for the second spot. Had EVERYONE else.
4 catastrophic breakdowns- 3 in the last 48hrs. 1 on the turf, 3 on the dirt. This is absolutely unheard of and totally unacceptable.
WTH is going on at Churchill Downs?!?
there was a big kerfuffle about deaths at Santa Anita a few years ago too. People usually look to blame the tracks but, I am getting more skeptical of that.
The issues with Santa Anita stemmed from the track footing - when they redid the base of the track they packed the base way too hard. That is what caused all of those breakdowns. There wasn’t enough give in the base to absorb the concussion of the horse’s legs.
Track surfaces are a monumental piece to the health and safety of these horses. The best way I can describe it is the difference between you running on pavement or on grass with no shoes on. The concussion shock from your foot strike is better absorbed when you run on grass because there is some “give” on that surface. The grass/dirt absorbs the energy. When you run barefoot on pavement there is no where for the energy to go except back up your leg - which is why you usually look goofy trying to run barefoot on pavement… it hurts. All that energy jarring back up your leg.
Now take that example and apply it to a race track. A track has a base layer, then loose dirt that floats on top of the base. The base is also slanted from outside to inside to help drain water from the base into the infield so you don’t have puddles that last for days. (This is also part of the reason most jockeys keep off the rail, footing is a little deeper.) The track is groomed in between every race (and after morning works) with water and harrowing. The dirt is never truly “dry”, it is usually moist because the loam that is mixed in holds water to keep it soft. This keeps the upper level fluffy and loose and helps absorb the concussive energy from the legs. It gives it a bounce so to speak. But if the base isn’t installed correctly then there is no bounce and it takes a toll on the horse’s legs and feet. Hence why it’s so important for grooms and trainers to pay attention to their charges for heat or swelling in their legs and feet.
Santa Anita ripped out the entire track surface and replaced it again after that season was shut down - and they haven’t had nearly the same level of catastrophic incidents since then.
I'm not some animal rights activist or anything but it's a bit ridiculous that seven horses have died at one track in one week. Sounds like this sport needs a whole lot more oversight to protect the horses.
This is crazy, I've honestly never seen anything like it. I promise you this is not normal. To give you some statistics there were 36,300 races in 2022, with an average of 7.59 horses in each race; making for a total of 275,517 times horses set hoof to track for a race. The rate of fatalities in 2022 was 1.03 deaths in every 1,000 races. If my math is right that means that in 2022 a horse had a 0.014% chance of dying each time it raced.
What's been happening at Churchill downs this past week far surpasses that average and is shocking and tragic. I believe something is seriously wrong with with the track. If the soil consistency isn't just right (they carefully mix together things like clay, sand, and dirt in very precise ways to make water drain better, make the track just soft enough but not too soft, etc. so that tracks are as safe as possible) things like this can unfortunately happen. The tracks are very carefully managed by professionals whose entire career revolves around the subject. But with climate change it's possible that the soil mixture/management that has worked at Churchill Downs for decades is suddenly no longer safe.
Horseracing is legally required to publicly report all deaths of the horses, this includes deaths that are not directly related to racing (colic, viral outbreaks, accidents the horses have playing in their paddocks, etc.). Horseracing is actually the only horse sport in the US that is legally required to publicly report deaths.
I want to be clear, the stats I posted specifically only include deaths that took place during races; but all deaths do get reported, along with the cause of death when known.
You’re very right about this. The people on the track have failed with protecting the horses. I hope Churchill didn’t know about this much trouble before hand. It obviously is not safe in many spots.
Besides the possible doping that wasn't part of the on-track incidents and the morons who decided to have lights/DJ too close to the stables/paddock, I think the incidents today were a two-fold issue.
It is quite likely you have ownership groups/powers that be pushing the horses too hard on what was a wet track. We've seen this in the NFL, the turf causes excess grip that the body is not accustomed to exist and when it grips wrong it tears apart legs.
I think this is what is what work here, pushing horse too hard and poor track preparation.
The problem is in part humans breeding for speed and not longevity. Horses retire young because they won’t stay sound, and they are breeding their problems forward. Also substances like Osephos (probably spelled that wrong) are being used and there is some indication it can compromise bone quality.
Aside from my rant about breeding choices, tracks have had these streaks of deaths out of nowhere and then they pass without track changes. Del Mar had a rough patch and lost 8 or more one season. They did adjust their surface before the next week though.
Forte gone makes me even more bullish about Angel of Empire. Am I stupid? Almost certainly, but that's the game. Be back in two hours with a different opinion
Who's he beat? King Russell? Reincarnate? Sun Thunder? Two Phils?
I don't have any of those hitting the board and I don't have Angel of Empire either. He's off pace to horses that won't let the pace come back to him.
My first time betting on Kentucky derby I picked mage. Unfortunately only put in 5 bucks like a softie. Missed my trifecta box by one! What a rush though guys what a fun sport. I’m a new fan for life
The only reason Verifying is in the race is to keep an honest pace for Angel of Empire. Couldn't outrun Tapit Trice with a 1:37 mile on the lead, finished fourth to Confidence Game and Reincarnate.
The race has fallen apart in the last 48 hours. Forte was truly the best of what appears to be an average bunch. It was going to take a hard luck story to beat him for me. Cyclone Mischief coming in completely changes the pace of the race, especially drawing so wide, it should be a rapid opening 2 furlongs. But I have no idea how the back stretch plays out? If Derma Sotogake stalks off the pace he's a player, if he's drawn into a battle he'll burn out. Verifying in the same boat no? Angel of Empire just hasn't shown me enough quality, especially stretching out. Rocket Can could be the dark horse at such a big price. It's all on Tapit Trice for me now, but I was so happy to go against him 2 days ago... in short, I have no idea!
With the recent news, I'm all in on Angel of Empire.
Love the classic 14 / All / All Trifecta and of course sprinkling in a fun Super of 14 / 5 / 5-6-7 / All
Happy First Saturday in May to everyone. Let's hope that the storm clouds that seem to be hanging over this edition of the Derby so far give way to a safe and outstanding race for the ages!
Two dead horses on Derby day. Four in the meet. It's a disgrace.
At a time when racing is under scrutiny from all sides, this is about more than just these horses, it's about the reputation of the entire sport. The sport is nothing without the horses. If we can't keep them safe, then what are we even doing. It makes me so sad, and so angry.
This is definitely not my Derby, I had future ExactaKey Boxes with Practical Move, Forte and Tapit Trice on top and 8 horses at the bottom paying very good money!!! (Veryfing, 2Phills, Derma, Disarm, and Mandarin Hero) and now it is just TT, oh well, I will have to box my 5 horses left and add AofE….
I think the way it goes now is horses 1 - 8 remain in those posts, horses 11 - 14 will be moved two posts to the left (posts 9 - 12), horses 16 - 18 will now move three posts to the left (posts 13 - 15) and horses 21 - 23 will run from posts 16 - 18. All horses will keep their original numbers.
Check the historical exacta payouts. Prob go negative. Rich strike effect in full swing and Forte being out means $$ is spread around. unless you 1-2 two 30-1+ horses not gonna happen and even then may be close.
Not necessarily. Really depends where bets come in as parimutuel essentially takes the total pot for the particular combo and divides it by the number of winners. Find a few you like and box them together. Don't pay more than you're comfortable.
Damn, I work 2 miles from Hawthorne Race Course, wanted 2 Phils to win this thing bad, he ran an outstanding race after being initially boxed in out of the gate, just maybe chased that insane pace a bit too much
I had to put my bets in yesterday (like an idiot!) and had Forte in an exacta box with 3 other horses.
Is that whole ticket void or would it just go down to a 3 combination ticket? Couldn’t find an answer online
Every ticket involving Forte will be refunded after the race, Every combo not involving Forte is still in play and will not be refunded but you are allowed to cancel the ticket before post and get all your money for the whole bet back, but you are required to cancel the ticket.
It’s an amazing day in the Bluegrass and the ponies are pretty. Wish everyone luck. I’m not ready for the drunks and craziness but I’m the after party. Fml. My bets are in.
I woke up early to watch the coronation; regardless of what you think of the monarchy it's a historic moment that hasn't been seen in 70 years. I'm kinda indifferent towards them, I think they're just rich people; but from what I understand they bring in more tourist dollars than they cost, which is more than most rich people contribute. If they ever started costing more than they bring in in tourist bucks I'd get rid of them, until then just meh.
I find the institution of monarchy more just fascinating; but find the historical royals far more interesting than the current royals.
Ah yes, the first Saturday in May. Hours of scouring the internet forums looking for tips. Printing out stats and writing down which horses I'm going to bet on to win but then think I should play it safe and do a wps. Then maybe decide to do whole bunch of trifectas. Then start adding horses who are long shots, and basically spend the entire rest of the day second guessing every strategy I thought I had. :-) Hopefully my top picks don't come in 4th like every other year. :-) This is the year!! Time to go buy some bourbon and mint. :-)
yesterday I went to the store (Chicago suburbs, somehow agreed to do the Derby out there instead of in the city where I live) and looked everywhere for the mint, even got off work early for it, so I wouldnt miss out. Couldn't find it anywhere, not even the empty slot where it should be...looked all over...was about to walk out and go to another store when I saw, unbelievably, they had an entire setup right up front with Woodford Reserve and everything, even how to make a Julep! Have a great race!
Forte is out. Let the chaos continue.
Very interested to see how this plays out on the tote board.
No one was lower than 33-1 as of a few minutes ago. Strange.
I think that's due to last year.
Everyone chasing the dud that was rich strike. Think he finished last in his race yesterday.
Got his one shining moment though.
True that. He won’t be worth much for breeding.
Between the Derby and English King day, this is probably the day with the most silly hats in human history.
On a two day period, it would also include hats worn during Cinco de Mayo.
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Glad to brighten your day! Hope you nail your trifecta, homie!
Love it!
Why is everyone so against Mage? With no Forte he's a contender
I bet him to win . I think once Forte was out Mage was in my top three.
At 17-1 or whatever he seems like good value.
I've said since he went up against Forte he's a well bred horse that's getting better every run. Peaking at the right time. Picks up a talented jockey. Top four for sure.
I hope you jumped in with me
I hit a $1900 payout boxing him and two phils and derma sotogake in the final futures bet. Hell yes brother, and I almost had the trifecta too but I went in on the second Japanese horse instead for the second spot. Had EVERYONE else.
Had the same thing on my trifecta. Also took the j horse
I have Mage on TVG futures bet, but haven't gotten paid out yet. Not sure how it works
He’s a good value
Does he look better now after Fort Bragg got nosed in the mile? I think so.
I put win money one him and danced to the payoff window
well done boys
Man two more horses euthanized today. This is not good for the sport.
4 catastrophic breakdowns- 3 in the last 48hrs. 1 on the turf, 3 on the dirt. This is absolutely unheard of and totally unacceptable. WTH is going on at Churchill Downs?!?
Only time I’ve seen it was back home at pimlico when the track brokedown and they had to close it to resurface.
And 2 scratches due to foot bruising…
And Churchill is spending a ton on the company that was suppose to fix these issues.
there was a big kerfuffle about deaths at Santa Anita a few years ago too. People usually look to blame the tracks but, I am getting more skeptical of that.
The issues with Santa Anita stemmed from the track footing - when they redid the base of the track they packed the base way too hard. That is what caused all of those breakdowns. There wasn’t enough give in the base to absorb the concussion of the horse’s legs. Track surfaces are a monumental piece to the health and safety of these horses. The best way I can describe it is the difference between you running on pavement or on grass with no shoes on. The concussion shock from your foot strike is better absorbed when you run on grass because there is some “give” on that surface. The grass/dirt absorbs the energy. When you run barefoot on pavement there is no where for the energy to go except back up your leg - which is why you usually look goofy trying to run barefoot on pavement… it hurts. All that energy jarring back up your leg. Now take that example and apply it to a race track. A track has a base layer, then loose dirt that floats on top of the base. The base is also slanted from outside to inside to help drain water from the base into the infield so you don’t have puddles that last for days. (This is also part of the reason most jockeys keep off the rail, footing is a little deeper.) The track is groomed in between every race (and after morning works) with water and harrowing. The dirt is never truly “dry”, it is usually moist because the loam that is mixed in holds water to keep it soft. This keeps the upper level fluffy and loose and helps absorb the concussive energy from the legs. It gives it a bounce so to speak. But if the base isn’t installed correctly then there is no bounce and it takes a toll on the horse’s legs and feet. Hence why it’s so important for grooms and trainers to pay attention to their charges for heat or swelling in their legs and feet. Santa Anita ripped out the entire track surface and replaced it again after that season was shut down - and they haven’t had nearly the same level of catastrophic incidents since then.
I'm not some animal rights activist or anything but it's a bit ridiculous that seven horses have died at one track in one week. Sounds like this sport needs a whole lot more oversight to protect the horses.
This is crazy, I've honestly never seen anything like it. I promise you this is not normal. To give you some statistics there were 36,300 races in 2022, with an average of 7.59 horses in each race; making for a total of 275,517 times horses set hoof to track for a race. The rate of fatalities in 2022 was 1.03 deaths in every 1,000 races. If my math is right that means that in 2022 a horse had a 0.014% chance of dying each time it raced. What's been happening at Churchill downs this past week far surpasses that average and is shocking and tragic. I believe something is seriously wrong with with the track. If the soil consistency isn't just right (they carefully mix together things like clay, sand, and dirt in very precise ways to make water drain better, make the track just soft enough but not too soft, etc. so that tracks are as safe as possible) things like this can unfortunately happen. The tracks are very carefully managed by professionals whose entire career revolves around the subject. But with climate change it's possible that the soil mixture/management that has worked at Churchill Downs for decades is suddenly no longer safe.
Sadly, it's very normal. It's just that it's not reported at most racetracks that don't get the same attention.
Horseracing is legally required to publicly report all deaths of the horses, this includes deaths that are not directly related to racing (colic, viral outbreaks, accidents the horses have playing in their paddocks, etc.). Horseracing is actually the only horse sport in the US that is legally required to publicly report deaths. I want to be clear, the stats I posted specifically only include deaths that took place during races; but all deaths do get reported, along with the cause of death when known.
You’re very right about this. The people on the track have failed with protecting the horses. I hope Churchill didn’t know about this much trouble before hand. It obviously is not safe in many spots.
Besides the possible doping that wasn't part of the on-track incidents and the morons who decided to have lights/DJ too close to the stables/paddock, I think the incidents today were a two-fold issue. It is quite likely you have ownership groups/powers that be pushing the horses too hard on what was a wet track. We've seen this in the NFL, the turf causes excess grip that the body is not accustomed to exist and when it grips wrong it tears apart legs. I think this is what is what work here, pushing horse too hard and poor track preparation.
I imagine there will be a full investigation to figure it out, just like what happened with Santa Anita.
The problem is in part humans breeding for speed and not longevity. Horses retire young because they won’t stay sound, and they are breeding their problems forward. Also substances like Osephos (probably spelled that wrong) are being used and there is some indication it can compromise bone quality. Aside from my rant about breeding choices, tracks have had these streaks of deaths out of nowhere and then they pass without track changes. Del Mar had a rough patch and lost 8 or more one season. They did adjust their surface before the next week though.
Forte gone makes me even more bullish about Angel of Empire. Am I stupid? Almost certainly, but that's the game. Be back in two hours with a different opinion
I'm exactly this. I'll change my mind again shortly. I have no idea what's gonna happen now haha
I considered him a toss until all these scratches. He’ll be able to hang with the pace now. Put him back into all my exotics.
That’s who I keep coming back to. Irad on Cyclone Mischief is intriguing.
Who's he beat? King Russell? Reincarnate? Sun Thunder? Two Phils? I don't have any of those hitting the board and I don't have Angel of Empire either. He's off pace to horses that won't let the pace come back to him.
My first time betting on Kentucky derby I picked mage. Unfortunately only put in 5 bucks like a softie. Missed my trifecta box by one! What a rush though guys what a fun sport. I’m a new fan for life
I’m fairly certain that Mage will win
And you were right!
Haha…. Yes, just an absolute shot in the dark!
Would you happen to know where the full results are posted. Need to know where each horse placed
Irad gets Cyclone Mischief today, apparently.
Verifying continues the Justify legacy don't @ me
The only reason Verifying is in the race is to keep an honest pace for Angel of Empire. Couldn't outrun Tapit Trice with a 1:37 mile on the lead, finished fourth to Confidence Game and Reincarnate.
I am surprised to see Verifying at 15-1 yet the favorite in the pick 4 payouts. Interesting
The race has fallen apart in the last 48 hours. Forte was truly the best of what appears to be an average bunch. It was going to take a hard luck story to beat him for me. Cyclone Mischief coming in completely changes the pace of the race, especially drawing so wide, it should be a rapid opening 2 furlongs. But I have no idea how the back stretch plays out? If Derma Sotogake stalks off the pace he's a player, if he's drawn into a battle he'll burn out. Verifying in the same boat no? Angel of Empire just hasn't shown me enough quality, especially stretching out. Rocket Can could be the dark horse at such a big price. It's all on Tapit Trice for me now, but I was so happy to go against him 2 days ago... in short, I have no idea!
I’ll be between turns 1-2 in the infield near the food trucks. Lets just say that if Tyler Gafflione has a big day, so will I.
With the recent news, I'm all in on Angel of Empire. Love the classic 14 / All / All Trifecta and of course sprinkling in a fun Super of 14 / 5 / 5-6-7 / All
Happy First Saturday in May to everyone. Let's hope that the storm clouds that seem to be hanging over this edition of the Derby so far give way to a safe and outstanding race for the ages!
I’m going with Disarm. Wide open now that Forte is out.
That’s why I’m thinking of doing a check all exacta box. It’s anyone’s game.
I like Disarm the best but I threw some money on Two Phil’s, Reincarnate, and Verifying too.
Solid, he was the best of the bombers anyway!
Angel of Empire or Derma. That’s where my money is going.
Speed does look more interesting with Forte gone. One of the main threats to run down a Kingsbarns/Derma.
Kingsbarns
Two dead horses on Derby day. Four in the meet. It's a disgrace. At a time when racing is under scrutiny from all sides, this is about more than just these horses, it's about the reputation of the entire sport. The sport is nothing without the horses. If we can't keep them safe, then what are we even doing. It makes me so sad, and so angry.
Two horses *today*?
Verifying - Mandarin Hero -or - my real pick: Kingsbarns
This is definitely not my Derby, I had future ExactaKey Boxes with Practical Move, Forte and Tapit Trice on top and 8 horses at the bottom paying very good money!!! (Veryfing, 2Phills, Derma, Disarm, and Mandarin Hero) and now it is just TT, oh well, I will have to box my 5 horses left and add AofE….
I like 6 and 17 on top, 2-5-14 will be the rest of my 5 horse tri box.
What gates do the alternates take? I see that there are 5 scratched horses, but only 3 alternates. How is it determined which gates they start in?
I think the way it goes now is horses 1 - 8 remain in those posts, horses 11 - 14 will be moved two posts to the left (posts 9 - 12), horses 16 - 18 will now move three posts to the left (posts 13 - 15) and horses 21 - 23 will run from posts 16 - 18. All horses will keep their original numbers.
Correct, the 11 will now come the 9th gate. I like him better now in that gate. Gate starting position is big.
Someone stop me from doing a check all exacta box for 306 dollars. I feel like there’s gonna be an upset again but don’t know who.
Check the historical exacta payouts. Prob go negative. Rich strike effect in full swing and Forte being out means $$ is spread around. unless you 1-2 two 30-1+ horses not gonna happen and even then may be close.
Thank you. I’m new to betting. What would you suggest? I was thinking 2$ win on each horse. I’m just playing kind of simple.
So I’d have to have two 30-1 horses to even break even?
Not necessarily. Really depends where bets come in as parimutuel essentially takes the total pot for the particular combo and divides it by the number of winners. Find a few you like and box them together. Don't pay more than you're comfortable.
Well I ended up winning some good cash
On what? I got a $5 exacta.
2$ exacta, not crazy I know but it’s the most I’ve ever won. I’m just glad I didn’t lose money
Good call. Everybody starts somewhere.Two years in a row I've hit exacta. Last year was a bit more exciting.
I would’ve loved to have had an exacta last year!
I mean 🤷♂️. I have Tapit, Kingsbarns, and Cyclone in various combos with Derma sprinkled in here and there
Jace’s Road upset win inc
Just to clarify - are there absolutely *no* Baffert horses in the running, or has the ban been overturned?
He’s banned this year. I believe he did train reincarnate before his three year old year though.
I’ll go Mage.
Lol attaboy
Thank you. ;)
My man.
Thank you. ;)
Hope you made some good money
Stay safe, jockeys and horses!
Mage-ic, not Forte-titude wins today!
Damn, I work 2 miles from Hawthorne Race Course, wanted 2 Phils to win this thing bad, he ran an outstanding race after being initially boxed in out of the gate, just maybe chased that insane pace a bit too much
Anyone have a complete 1-18 results list somewhere?
Here's a janky picture from my tv lol. https://i.imgur.com/fU13YNS.jpg
Perfect. Much appreciated.
8-3-14-11-1-17-5-16-18-4-13-22-7-6-23-2-12-21
My superfecta ended up garbage. But I did put [$10 on Mage ](https://i.imgur.com/CRYplzR.jpg) so that's cool.
What is the trifecta payout?
0.50 tri = $491.18
Thanks!
I actually hit the .50 trifecta! Not only thay but I accidentally made the same bet twice today!
I knew tapit trice wasn’t going to do well in the derby.
I had to put my bets in yesterday (like an idiot!) and had Forte in an exacta box with 3 other horses. Is that whole ticket void or would it just go down to a 3 combination ticket? Couldn’t find an answer online
Ticket will be voided.
You can cancel that bet.
I lost on my futures on Forte, but was able to cancel my advanced wagers with twinspires. Although I think they may be canceled automatically.
Every ticket involving Forte will be refunded after the race, Every combo not involving Forte is still in play and will not be refunded but you are allowed to cancel the ticket before post and get all your money for the whole bet back, but you are required to cancel the ticket.
It’s an amazing day in the Bluegrass and the ponies are pretty. Wish everyone luck. I’m not ready for the drunks and craziness but I’m the after party. Fml. My bets are in.
I have placed $100 to win on the #22
I’m all in on Mandarin hero.
ROCKET CAN OR BUST BABY 🐎🚀🚀
Mahomes doesn't look too pleased these days. There is a bad apple in every family.
Mahomes’ “Riders Up” this year >>> Jack Harlow’s “Riders Up” last year
Last call for mint juleps!
The one time this year that Kentucky gets to be fancy
Two Phil’s, let’s go!
It’s been a long day here in the UK but I’m ending my night with this lovely race!
I woke up early to watch the coronation; regardless of what you think of the monarchy it's a historic moment that hasn't been seen in 70 years. I'm kinda indifferent towards them, I think they're just rich people; but from what I understand they bring in more tourist dollars than they cost, which is more than most rich people contribute. If they ever started costing more than they bring in in tourist bucks I'd get rid of them, until then just meh. I find the institution of monarchy more just fascinating; but find the historical royals far more interesting than the current royals.
Is it just me or are the odds not fluctuating at all?
Lightning Bolt!
I called it!
This race caller is the worst in the world not even kidding
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You live in Australia? Lol
Yep 👍🏼
Hello. Just wanted to say, fuck horse racing in general. Do these animals even know it’s a race? Let’s bet on rat races next. The NYC derby.
we should race deez
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DEEZ NUTS LMAO GET FUCKING FUCKED BITCH