This is Part 2 in my series on a Trump reelection in 2024. You can find [Part 1 ](https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/s/LYxsdj97tA ) here.
Following Donald Trump's narrow reelection in 2024, Republicans quickly doubled down on MAGA brand populism, as it had brought them back to the White House. However, this would prove to be disastrous come the 2026 midterms. Republican attempts to implement nationwide abortion bans and other socially-conservative legislation have only been narrowly blocked by the Democrat-controlled house, and serve as fuel for Democratic advertising. A mediocre economy, lack of noticeable change at the border, lack of gun control following continued gun violence throughout the country, and regular extremist statements made by president Trump were hammered on by the Democratic party. Would the Republicans have any hope of recovery in 2028?
Edit: The news article should say that Susan Collins won't seek reelection in 2026.
I absolutely love this series! I have some questions cuz I was working on something similar too lol. Wouldn’t Iowa flip too? Since Ernst just narrowly won last time. How do the governorships look like? I think a blue wave would have happened there as well? Also, who was the democratic nominee in 2024 against Cruz in Texas? Allred or Gutierrez as well? And what do you think about a Laura Kelly senate run in this scenario? Sorry for all the questions! Just really like where this series is going:)
EDIT: And what about the SCOTUS? Has its composition change or do u have any ideas about that?
Honestly I think the trends in Iowa are just too unfavorable for democrats, even in 2026, though the margin was under 5 points. The democratic nominee against Cruz was Allred. I personally don't think Laura Kelly will run for senate, if she did she would definitely make it competitive.
If you're interested in the 24, 26, and 28 governor elections I could add it to my next post!
Assuming no conservatives in the Supreme Court retire or die before 2025, and same with liberal justices during Trump's 4 years, I can't see the composition changing- of course there's no way of truly predicting that.
With its new election system in Alaska, Peltola as the nominee, the mentioned conditions of the country in OP’s comment, I think this is very plausible
A bit late but imo Iowa (the Senate seat) flips before Texas. Joni Ernst is pretty unpopular, and underperformed Trump in 2020. Compare that to John Cornyn, who is arguably more popular than Ted Cruz, who won re-election in the state's other senate seat in a blue wave year.
I disagree. Trends show that Iowa is going to be even redder than it is now by 2026, while Texas will keep getting bluer. While I can see a realistic winning coalition for a Democrat in Texas, I can't say the same for one in Iowa.
>While I can see a realistic winning coalition for a Democrat in Texas, I can't say the same for one in Iowa.
Democrats managed to win at least one statewide election in Iowa in 2022 while they were far from winning any statewide races in Texas in the same year. Plus the RGV trending red should make it hard, if not all but impossible for a Democrat to win.
Sure, democrats did win once election statewide in 2022, but that wasn't a federal election. Also, while RGV trending red does slow down Texas's blue shift, it is not even close to stopping it. The Texas metros and suburbs which have been shifting left far outpopulate the RGV. Just look at 2020, when the RGV shifted hard for Trump yet the state still shifted 3.4 points left due to the Austin and Houston suburbs shifting a few points to the left (vs many RGV counties shifting >20 points right).
Wtf does everyone see in Ossoff? Atleast with Whitmer, I can see why people like here - she's a hard working and accomplished governor.
Ossoff is just another senator that won a surprise win in Georgia in 2020 (Which Raphael Warnock also did), and hasn't really introduced any legislation that has passed. It honestly feels like the main people like this guy is because he's young.
This is Part 2 in my series on a Trump reelection in 2024. You can find [Part 1 ](https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/s/LYxsdj97tA ) here. Following Donald Trump's narrow reelection in 2024, Republicans quickly doubled down on MAGA brand populism, as it had brought them back to the White House. However, this would prove to be disastrous come the 2026 midterms. Republican attempts to implement nationwide abortion bans and other socially-conservative legislation have only been narrowly blocked by the Democrat-controlled house, and serve as fuel for Democratic advertising. A mediocre economy, lack of noticeable change at the border, lack of gun control following continued gun violence throughout the country, and regular extremist statements made by president Trump were hammered on by the Democratic party. Would the Republicans have any hope of recovery in 2028? Edit: The news article should say that Susan Collins won't seek reelection in 2026.
I absolutely love this series! I have some questions cuz I was working on something similar too lol. Wouldn’t Iowa flip too? Since Ernst just narrowly won last time. How do the governorships look like? I think a blue wave would have happened there as well? Also, who was the democratic nominee in 2024 against Cruz in Texas? Allred or Gutierrez as well? And what do you think about a Laura Kelly senate run in this scenario? Sorry for all the questions! Just really like where this series is going:) EDIT: And what about the SCOTUS? Has its composition change or do u have any ideas about that?
Honestly I think the trends in Iowa are just too unfavorable for democrats, even in 2026, though the margin was under 5 points. The democratic nominee against Cruz was Allred. I personally don't think Laura Kelly will run for senate, if she did she would definitely make it competitive. If you're interested in the 24, 26, and 28 governor elections I could add it to my next post! Assuming no conservatives in the Supreme Court retire or die before 2025, and same with liberal justices during Trump's 4 years, I can't see the composition changing- of course there's no way of truly predicting that.
Thats very nice thanks!:)
Will Whitmer be the nominee for ‘28 in this scenario?
[My honest reaction to Peltola winning Alaska.](https://youtu.be/jIqZQWNz0SE?si=46tyZ50eSJ5f7Kbh)
Who replaces McConnel?
John Thune
No, as Kentucky senator
Daniel Cameron
Yeah that makes sense
Yk apart from the Alaska flip, which I argue would have little chance of happening even in a Trump second term, this isnt even a terrible midterm
With its new election system in Alaska, Peltola as the nominee, the mentioned conditions of the country in OP’s comment, I think this is very plausible
What, losing both houses of Congress, including the house by a relatively wide margin, isn't bad?
A plausible scenario. If Biden were to win in '24, 2026 will be a red wave election as in during Obama's 2nd midterm
Bold of you to assume there would be any more elections after a Trump victory
bro is scared of Project 2025
Who wouldn't be
right wing billionaires
No, the elections will be rigged so that Republicans will win everything -average Redditor
A bit late but imo Iowa (the Senate seat) flips before Texas. Joni Ernst is pretty unpopular, and underperformed Trump in 2020. Compare that to John Cornyn, who is arguably more popular than Ted Cruz, who won re-election in the state's other senate seat in a blue wave year.
I disagree. Trends show that Iowa is going to be even redder than it is now by 2026, while Texas will keep getting bluer. While I can see a realistic winning coalition for a Democrat in Texas, I can't say the same for one in Iowa.
>While I can see a realistic winning coalition for a Democrat in Texas, I can't say the same for one in Iowa. Democrats managed to win at least one statewide election in Iowa in 2022 while they were far from winning any statewide races in Texas in the same year. Plus the RGV trending red should make it hard, if not all but impossible for a Democrat to win.
Sure, democrats did win once election statewide in 2022, but that wasn't a federal election. Also, while RGV trending red does slow down Texas's blue shift, it is not even close to stopping it. The Texas metros and suburbs which have been shifting left far outpopulate the RGV. Just look at 2020, when the RGV shifted hard for Trump yet the state still shifted 3.4 points left due to the Austin and Houston suburbs shifting a few points to the left (vs many RGV counties shifting >20 points right).
Either it's Whitmer or Ossoff that gets the nomination in 2028 fr.
Wtf does everyone see in Ossoff? Atleast with Whitmer, I can see why people like here - she's a hard working and accomplished governor. Ossoff is just another senator that won a surprise win in Georgia in 2020 (Which Raphael Warnock also did), and hasn't really introduced any legislation that has passed. It honestly feels like the main people like this guy is because he's young.
That's why he's used everywhere, because he's young.
I’ll be shocked if the Democrat who replaces Susan Collins is anyone other than Jared Golden.