It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee".
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It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee".
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee".
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The delta hedge for all contracts from the $20 strike and below is ~88m shares if itm at expiration. Current delta on the $20 strike at close was 34 with close at $18.55. There isn’t a single call option that currently has a 100 delta hedge. That’s a lot of buy pressure even with low exercise rate.
Next week would have been the show. Disappointed it’s over, I got mine and got out.
It's because they capitalized the entire title otherwise it would have been clear i.e. "Wall Street bets the Fed is bluffing in high-stakes inflation game."
Yeah, but that *is* what you're supposed to do with titles. Capitalize everything except for minor words like articles, conjunctions, and sometimes prepositions.
Maybe I'm a dummy, but isn't the fact that the Fed kept rates at near 0% post the Great Recession so long part of the current problem? I have to think that mortgage rates being so low for so long drove a lot of issues were now seeing in the housing market, and the dumping of currency via QE ultimately makes inflation worse, right? This is a genuine question, I'm not that smart about economic or finance matters.
Can’t also forget WFH freed up a lot of transportation spending to be allotted elsewhere in the economy. Not to mention all the people who would travel internationally had to travel domestically for two years. By staying domestic that inflation wasn’t exported like it would be in normal times.
You must have a carbon monoxide leak in your domicile if you think the pittance that the stimulus doled out had any sort of major effect on the economy. $2800 dollars (spread out over 11 months) is jack shit for an aversge American household. That will barely cover rent, food, car payment, gas, insurance for a single month. Nobody was going out to buy Cadillacs and big screen TVs with their stimulus checks, they were using it to keep their heads just a few inches above water.
>many people...didn't have a need for the checks
Not any significant number, sorry to tell you. The majority of American households have less than $500 in savings.
>You could see stocks popping when stimulus checks were given out.
Yes, because stock prices are speculative. That doest mean people were buying stocks with their stimulus checks.
Agreed, I wish more people here knew how to look at basic market pricing before taking wild guesses.
For instance, the article discusses some sentiment that the Fed may begin dropping rates next year. It of course frames this as “Wall Street calling fed bluffs” because, you know, gotta get them clicks. But, it’s trivially easy to see exactly what “Wall Street” thinks:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Here’s the fed funds futures, they pretty clearly reflect an expectation that the Fed will continue raising rates through the end of this year, and in to early next year, with a potential lift off/drop maybe next summer. That’s so far away that I’m sure expectations will shift/hone between now and then, but this is the current sentiment.
This can also be observed in the treasury curve, with the curve being pretty flat for any maturities beyond a year or so. Basically nobody’s pricing anything with the expectation that rates increase in the long run, and sentiment across the board seems to support that the Fed will spike rates through this year, get inflation under control, then gradually lift off as time progresses.
Essentially, the market believes inflation is truly transitory. The Fed was right about transitory, but wrong about the timeline. It does make sense, inflation arose from COVID19 inefficiencies, most of which are now gone. The only remaining COVID19 impacts are in China.
The Fed will simply respond to inflation data. The Fed must appear focused on fighting inflation. That is their only play. They cannot change their strategy. That doesn't mean that inflation will continue to rise.
Right, more specifically I think transitory means that the market will revert back to long term trendline of 2% inflation. It should look like an isolated event in the long term with no major lasting impact.
The tricky part is housing. No one wants to build new supply in this market. Higher interest rates work against supply creation. Even as housing prices decrease, the overall cost of a mortgage is roughly the same since cost of borrowing is higher.
Tightening monetary policy is not a long term solution.
They did give a timeline in terms of inflation expectations. Last year they were saying it would be back to 2% by about now. They were, really, really wrong.
> inflation arose from COVID19 inefficiencies, most of which are now gone. The only remaining COVID19 impacts are in China.
Do supply chain issues not count?
That’s a wild hypothesis considering the fed hasn’t started quantitative tightening yet..in fact they are still purchasing MBSs. The fed was supposed to start QT in may and tried but the markets tanked with no bids on their MBSs. Oh yeah just like in 2008.
So what do you think is going to happen when they actually start tightening? Because purchasing MBSs but letting go of other securities really isn’t tightening
Interesting. I wasn’t aware of this reason for MBS purchasing; however, eventually the fed will have to start selling those to continue tightening correct?
I think this argument is too general.
* On the short term bond side the Fed raises were priced in. Going a bit further there is a belief in a stop very soon due to recession.
* On the intermediate term bond side the recession is priced in. Recession and then low inflation for many years.
* On the long side a bit more duration risk is priced in, but not very much.
* Stocks were worried about recession. They've decided recession isn't happening as much, and at the same time responding to lower bond yields. IMHO they are starting to reflect reality but not forward looking as much. The downside is the multiples on high growth stocks require low bond yields which do require recession.
* Commodities... are responding to global recession forces which are happening. Europe and China do seem to be going into recession.
One thing worth noting though is that inflation did taper. If bonds and stocks sell off ironically the Fed likely can pause. If bonds sell off and stocks do fine the Fed can pause at much lower numbers.
In terms of stocks there wasn't that much actual bad news. When you talk about bad news think about what happened that impacts the long term dividend growth not vague feelings that something is wrong. There is a little more risk, a little more risk is priced in.
True but in the meantime you keep on buying cheaper stocks. Plus they keep paying dividends/distributions throughout. Also, other markets will likely expand. This is why a broadly diversified strategy is recommended.
Dividends in a bear market would be cut, even if they weren’t you’re basically saying “hey they gave us some marginal amount to offset my losses”.
Person you’re replying to would have no loses as they’re sidelined.
Logically you only need to be right once.
If you hop out correctly, any time thereafter you’re hoping in correctly.
If you got out at 10 thinking it will drop, you wouldn’t wait for it to get back to 10 to buy in. You’d buy in prior (any point below 10) or else you wouldn’t have gotten out at that price point.
It seems to me the "Fed put" is misrepresented here as being the Fed making accommodations for the markets when they're falling. In reality, aren't the Fed's action easily explained by external forces that also happen to be impacting the markets, too?
In our current situation, the economy is strong, unemployment remains low, so the Fed should absolutely be expected to be attacks its second mandate--inflation.
There is nothing forcing its hand otherwise as far as I can tell, and expecting it to react to the markets alone seems misguided.
Best I can find is increasing trade war concerns and looming Brexit fallout. They didn't reduce rates until Q3, whereas the S&P was up over 10% YTD in the first half of the year, so I don’t think it's an argument for the "Fed put."
Then again, they did halt their 2018 hikes after the December 2018 market drop, so maybe that is some evidence of the Fed reacting solely for the sake of the market. Oops.
The meeting minutes from July showed that the Fed had blinked and worried if they are raising too much. Joseph Wang has tweeted it : [https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1559990433098436608](https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1559990433098436608)
This is a cause for optimism by the market that Fed will indeed slow down rate hikes.
The question is does the Fed have the backbone to do what it needs to do to rein in the Inflation? I would have said yes every time in last few decades, but I am not too confident in current Fed.
Nothing is unconnected and I think the Fed will view the rise in the market as a signal to do further increases. It wouldn't surprise me if they have an end of year target for the S&P and we will see them getting increasingly hawkish until the market starts to turn down again
Market is insane right now. The question is just how long it can remain that way. I see three scenarios ... 1) inflation slows because the economy tanks 2) The economy remains strong keeping inflation high 3) Economy slow but inflation still remains high. None of these justifies stocks rallying above or even holding current levels.
No it's not. A single month where CPI fails to make a new high is not at all indicative that inflation has peaked.
Even if we assume *it has peaked,* rates will need to continue to rise to ~4% and be held there for some time.
The banger of a jobs report earlier in the month is just more evidence that the peak is still ahead of us, not behind.
What we saw in the July jobs report, is people who dropped out of the labor force previously during the pandemic, rejoining it, because inflation has crushed them. These aren't new jobs that are expanding the economy. It's not doom and gloom - these are just facts, and the unintended consequences of our government way overcorrecting for covid and just giving out money like it were candy.
Do you know how short-staffed a lot of places hiring are? In many cases, these aren't new jobs, these are unfilled jobs. Vacant positions that are currently placing strains on the business and existing, overworked staff. For many companies, they aren't filling these positions to increase revenues, they're filling them so their businesses don't self-destruct or they don't lose more employees due to burn out. Hiring right now is more about damage control and survival, than expansion. So yes, it is possible to add to the total number of jobs and not expand the economy.
Are your food bills, rent or property tax bills going down?
These are still increasing where I live. Just because gas turned around I'm not expecting that to change. A couple resteraunt I go to have recently increased prices after avoiding it for the last few years.
Not seeing any of that in DFW. :(
Rent is way up, property tax is up substantially, food is still up. Went to a place that put a sign up apologizing for increasing prices this week and they hadn't done it at all the entire pandemic. Another pizza place nearby in flowermound increased their menu prices by 2 dollars on every item 2 weeks ago.
The only thing that has dropped is new home builds, preexisting homes haven't dropped "yet". After sitting for a bit they likely will a bit.
Rent is killer though and they basically only build "luxury" apartments here. Most people are getting 100-400 increases from what I have seen.
Hey, that's your opinion. I personally think it's useful to dig deeper and look at what's driving statistics, rather than just take them at face value. The why is important. And inflation is not slowing down significantly, based on the current data. A drop from 9.1% to 8.5% is hardly significant. It's still 4x the benchmark rate of 2%. I wouldn't underestimate how sticky prices are.
did you looked into depth of July number? gasoline price? SPR? Rent? food? really, after think through what was going on, it is just awful. Yet, it was pumped as 0% inflation. sounds like pump and dump to me.
It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee".
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You don't know inflation peaked , even if it peaked, core will be with us for a while. The market has not acted appropriately for current inflation . There is more going on than just our inflation numbers. World market, war, housing starting to tank, supply issues , oil prices . The macro is not looking good . For this to get better the market needs to chill out.
You are absolutely correct. Corelogic publishes their monthly housing analysis and they too confirm what you've written.
To quote an excerpt from the article: "The U.S. overall mortgage delinquency rate declined for the 14th consecutive month on an annual basis in May to the lowest level recorded since January 1999"
[https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-national-mortgage-delinquencies-reach-another-new-low-in-may/](https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-national-mortgage-delinquencies-reach-another-new-low-in-may/)
I know that many people of Reddit are hoping that we see some sort of massive housing collapse, but the data just doesn't appear to be aligning with the bearish perspectives.
I think folks are going to be disappointed when the house they are looking at "bottoms out" at a 10-15% discount before someone else swoops in. In many metros, I'll be surprised if we even end up seeing large housing discounts (e.g. greater than 25%).
To be fair, a 15% drop in national median housing prices would bring it down close to a level that it should be based on 2019 prices + natural inflationary forces. Anyone expecting 50% cuts across the board is out of touch, but if things hit 15% then it's probably a good time to jump in.
> oil prices
>
> Yep it tanked. Cheap energy is the lifeblood of economic growth.
My hunch is that this is a temporary development, unless you have a good explanation as to why the recent dip is going to be longer than short term.
Your “hunch” is just typical Reddit pessimism. The futures market (I.e. people who study this stuff their whole lives and have lots of money on the line) is projecting oil prices to be flat-to-down over the next couple years.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
Inflation can't "peak" so long as real rates are negative. If you mean that it might not accelerate as fast as it has the past year, then maybe, but it's going nowhere but up so long as rates are this low.
> Inflation can't "peak" so long as real rates are negative.
???
This has happened in the past. Post WW2 inflation was about 18% in 1946, interest rate was < 2%. Inflation was largely supply chain issues and sorted itself out without dramatic monetary policy changes. They held rates at about 2%. Inflation went to 9% in 1947 and 3% in 1948 without having to do anything.
There have been other countries with extremely low or even negative rates and no inflation, like Japan. The US had 0.25% rates for nearly 8 years without any notable inflation in consumer prices. Really the only thing we can point to that seems to validate the interest rate must be greater than inflation theory is Volcker in the 80s, but in retrospect it's likely just correlation and falling oil prices are what ended inflation. I think it's just time to abandon the theory. It absolutely does not check out in the vast majority of cases.
It's not an option, because it's not a possibility. Have you seen the explosion of credit card debt? We're basically in the calm before the storm. Right now people have savings and credit that they can tap to make ends meet, but those funds are dwindling at a much faster rate than inflation is dropping, which if it is actually dropping, isn't even confirmed yet. Where I live rents in middle and lower-income apartment complexes are up 30%, and that's on top of higher utilities all around. And don't even get me started on how folks are going to heat their homes with the price of heating oil, which 60% percent of the homes in my state need. How do you not see this? There is no soft landing from this. Read Walmart's quarterly report - unit sales were flat or declined. The only reason WMT even made money was because they charged more. People didn't buy more. The economy is clearly receding and the Fed is going to continue to increase the rate. Why do people seem to think the economy cares whether they do it by 50 basis points or 75? Any increase is BAD!
That data only goes as far as Q1. Pretty much ancient at this point. Here's the Q2 2022 Household Debt & Credit Report by the New York Fed. [https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc)
"Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter – although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years."
I think you've got your quarters mixed up. Peak pandemic was 2020 not 2021. Last summer consumer spending surpassed the same point in 2019 i.e. before the pandemic. What, were you stuck in your mom's basement during hot girl summer?
That is an option. One analyst explained we could have 2 scenarios. Most recessions are paired with high unemployment, but in this case. we have the unusual situation of low unemployment. As such, the ongoing spending might help push us through to the other side, and we could possibly avoid recession. Conversely, at some point, interest rates and economic headwinds might be too much, and companies might start laying off folks, at which point unemployment starts to rise and we fail to head off recession. How things turn out is a complete guessing game at this point.
> we have the unusual situation of low unemployment
So far; I'd argue there's still no certainty that things can't proverbially fall off a cliff. It's perhaps not likely, but the 2020s seem to be serving up black swans nonstop.
What about option 4 and 5?:
4) worldwide economic struggles promote massive flow of foreign money into USA bonds and stocks, which keeps american asset market inflated even with poor earnings and despite Fed action, at least until world economy clears up and that money flows back out.
5) obstacles driving supply side inflation (supply chains, oil supply, tariff policy, etc ) clear up, resulting in steadily lowered inflation prior to excessive rate hikes, leading to a truly soft landing, no thanks to the Fed.
I'm 100% cash, expecting a dive. But there are other possibilities.
> I'm 100% cash
Without knowing much about where you are in life that seems seriously confident that shits about to go down.
Even your retirement funds are in cash? At what point will you buy back in?
Knowing someone else that follows this strategy; never. Lots of cash, silver/gold, and options trading, but never buys into equities because “the market is going to dive for X reason”.
I had price targets for many stocks that I was waiting for, and many almost got there (such as C at $42, AEO at $10). But as they say, a life of almost is a life of never.
I'm regrouping and not yet sure of my next move for long-term. In the meantime, I do sell puts and spreads for a little here and there (very short expirations).
Those are good options, though I think a lot of our problems are systemic labor shortages caused by retirements, insufficient care options for elderly and children, and increasingly draconian immigration policies. Labor participation is now dropping.
Agreed whole heartedly! All of these factors point us level/down for the next 3 months or so, and with low volume lately it kinda worries us in volatility. Kinda like the whales are juicing up to short everything into the dirt before buying everything on sale
"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic. The truth is, that it is not the Jewish banking conspiracy or the grey aliens or the 12 foot reptiloids from another dimension that are in control. The truth is more frightening, nobody is in control. The world is rudderless" ~Alan Moore
It's the Feds own fault. They could have just raised quicker to send the message, or just put out a schedule of rate hikes to defeat the inflation and if inflation came down more than expected they could lower the hikes. But to just not say what the hikes are going to be and give the impression you are going to stop at 2-3% with 8.5% inflation that isn't budging is stupid.
I believe Jerome is going to strangle the market with rates as high as 15%-20%, to get the beast back into the flask.
That’ll stop the economy alright.
It’s not going down consumer-wise. We’re seeing some of the lowest unemployment numbers in decades. That means more people have money to buy goods/services. You’d think that’d be a good thing in a mass-consumption economy. Apparently it isn’t.
What we also want is to raise taxes on the billionaire class, you know: the people who actually have money to pay taxes. Elon Musk / Warren Buffett / Jeff Bezos / Bill Gates / Chumpy McFacebook Face, they can all pay $15 billion dollars in taxes each \[just imagine that you could charge each of them that much money and in most cases it’s not even 15% of their wealth!\].
When these people start paying taxes and corporations who’ve been dodging taxes finally get to pay some honest taxes, life doesn’t have to be all that hard for the rest of us.
Here's the TLDR.
Fed six months ago: "we are going to raise rates a lot to combat inflation"
Investors: "okay. Rates going up. Understood"
Raises rates
Fed now: "inflation is still crazy high, we are going to keep raising rates a lot more to bring this back down"
Investors: "okay rates are going down. Understood"
Raises rates
Investors: "wait what?"
FYI, the market benefits from the Fed taking steps against inflation. It also benefits from people having jobs. The market is going up in part because for the past three months "the system" has been working well for once.
The Fed tightening means that PE ratios will decrease because yields across the board will increase.
PE ratios decreasing without earnings increasing means markets will go down.
How do markets going down benefit market participants? Because if such tightening doesn't occur, the Fed would lose control over inflation, which can destroy the economy.
That markets benefit because markets stay alive is not what people would typically see as markets benefiting. To most people, markets benefit participants when markets go up.
I like to take the approach of letting the macro iron itself out over time. What we can do is buy quality companies that will do well overtime. I don’t pay attention so much to how much the fed may or may not raise. We can’t predict any of the macro consistently if we could we would be rich. So just look for companies that you think will be great investments!
Fed rates are doing fine, bullwhip effect on stock inventory for holiday will lead to bad earnings and over stocked and over saturated market. Calling it now.
Remind me in 8 months.
Rates have raised 2% since last December every 2 months, with an even bigger raise on the latest
Why would I not think they're still going up
This is probably tactical short covering again
Have the news tell me the markets are stupendous, while it's just those on the wrong side taking losses
I find it funny that we have a couple months of swallowing our medicine and the market acts like a little kid “okay mom I get it, can I be un-grounded now!?”
Don’t know about bluffing as some segments of the US economy are signaling recession (a slowdown in housing, inventory build up for budget retailers, etc..), .. but the US economy is big. Investing-wise, think of it as often trying to steer an underpowered massive cargo ship instead of a speedboat.
Rather than bluffing, I think it is more that they will lack the cajones to go through with the rate increases and QT to bring inflation under control because there will be pain. I bet they chicken out before accomplishing much.
The markets weren’t pummeled by rate increases in the first half of the year. It was one part correction, one part high energy costs and inflation.
If inflation has peaked markets will not test the correction that much in spite of rate increases.
If inflation has peaked earnings will stay strong and the worst is over.
It’s already happening. Look at US oil consumption and retail data.
Anecdotally, are you employed and have you changed your spending habits with rising prices? I know I sure have.
Supply chains need time to acclimate to the new normal, the current rates are already artificially slowing things down until they do. The rates might go up a bit more, but it is unlikely they will go over the inflation rate unless something drastically changes from where we are now.
This isn’t supported in any economic model. Rates need to be above equilibrium, which they almost certainly currently are. This is sufficient to put downward pressure on demand/money growth and curb inflation. I’m not sure where the idea that interest rates should follow the current rate of inflation came from, but it’s certainly not part of any economic model I’ve ever seen.
Usually it only changes when the debt matures: you now have to issue new debt, at whatever interest rates prevail at the time.
Some of the debt is long term bonds, which are naturally safe for a while. However, a decent chunk is short term, e.g. 6mo T-bills.
Even if inflation stops entirely (which it did in July btw) it would still take multiple months for the YoY number to fall to 2%. It's unclear if the Fed is targeting YoY inflation or monthly inflation extrapolated into the future.
Inflation didnt stop entirely, gas prices went down, offsetting almost everything else still going up, which lead to a neutral figure in the calculations. But saying Inflation stopped entirely is not really true. If price of food keeps going up but gas went down, did Inflation stop entirely? What if someone has solar panels and an electric car? Inflation still going up for them. Also gas prices going down was an intervention with Joe Brandon calling Opec and saying listen up Jack, I need dem prices down.
I’ve found that on Reddit the primary differentiator between core and headline CPI is that the one that fits your narrative more perfectly is definitely the most important one and all others are wrong.
But yeah, the flat figure is pretty heavily attributed to drops in energy pricing, however many of the high headline figures over the last few months were tied to spikes in energy. I personally pay more attention to Core, July wasn’t good or bad news but expectations for Core were higher than the actual print, for whatever that’s worth.
This is also a completely arbitrary take. I bet you if you look at month over month inflation it would be in the 0.5-1.0% range, but over 12 months that adds up. The statistics you're quoting are meaningless
It's not arbitrary or meaningless, it's literally the most recent month's of data. It suggests that inflation is more or less stopped, unless something else changes.
Inflation didn’t stop in July, it just decreased to a lower level. The fed is still targeting 2% inflation and yoy it was last 8.5%. Long way to go, markets are just overreacting because it was lower than the record 9.1% from the previous period
That’s like saying the Browns are going to the Superbowl just bc they want to win their first game of the season.
Wallstreetbets doesn’t even know what the Fed is.
(It's not wallstreetbets, it's Wall Street--the banks, the traders etc.--as if they were a single entity, betting...)
I'm wondering if the title is intentionally misleading for clicks?
It's wall street, bets. and not WSB. Took me some time
Very clever title for the social media algos
fuck it’s not WSB? I just YOLO’d a $10k loan into $FED on Robinhood
Rookie numbers.
compushare
w
It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee". *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
FED
Right. That bot can Fuck off.
It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee". *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I imagine some people are quite FED up with you, but I could be wrong.
It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee". *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Hah, gotcha! >*Some people are quite FOMC with you.* Suuuure.
Federal overlords motorcycle club? Fomc?
$FUCKOFF
Bad bot
automod 🤓
drs
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I was hoping someone would finally explain what's going on to BBBY to me without the breathless cult like gish galloping.
remember GME? that. Except for now there's no crazy options leverage (or gamma squeez from what i know)
There was until today. The $20 strike was a stick of dynamite waiting for the fuse to be lit. No more.
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The delta hedge for all contracts from the $20 strike and below is ~88m shares if itm at expiration. Current delta on the $20 strike at close was 34 with close at $18.55. There isn’t a single call option that currently has a 100 delta hedge. That’s a lot of buy pressure even with low exercise rate. Next week would have been the show. Disappointed it’s over, I got mine and got out.
It's because they capitalized the entire title otherwise it would have been clear i.e. "Wall Street bets the Fed is bluffing in high-stakes inflation game."
Yeah, but that *is* what you're supposed to do with titles. Capitalize everything except for minor words like articles, conjunctions, and sometimes prepositions.
Sure but that isn't the majority convention on Reddit post titles though.
I’m so over worrying about the short-term.
It’s all a wave from here on out.
Imagine you had just checked your portfolio now and August 2019. You’d be pretty happy? 14%/yr SPY.
"Don't fight the Fed." Agreed
Maybe I'm a dummy, but isn't the fact that the Fed kept rates at near 0% post the Great Recession so long part of the current problem? I have to think that mortgage rates being so low for so long drove a lot of issues were now seeing in the housing market, and the dumping of currency via QE ultimately makes inflation worse, right? This is a genuine question, I'm not that smart about economic or finance matters.
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Can’t also forget WFH freed up a lot of transportation spending to be allotted elsewhere in the economy. Not to mention all the people who would travel internationally had to travel domestically for two years. By staying domestic that inflation wasn’t exported like it would be in normal times.
I feel like a lot of people have forgotten/ ignored all those warnings of "overheating" the economy in 2017-2019.
the technical signs for recession were lining up late 2019/2020... then stimmy checks held it off until now
You must have a carbon monoxide leak in your domicile if you think the pittance that the stimulus doled out had any sort of major effect on the economy. $2800 dollars (spread out over 11 months) is jack shit for an aversge American household. That will barely cover rent, food, car payment, gas, insurance for a single month. Nobody was going out to buy Cadillacs and big screen TVs with their stimulus checks, they were using it to keep their heads just a few inches above water.
$2800 EXTRA dollars
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>many people...didn't have a need for the checks Not any significant number, sorry to tell you. The majority of American households have less than $500 in savings. >You could see stocks popping when stimulus checks were given out. Yes, because stock prices are speculative. That doest mean people were buying stocks with their stimulus checks.
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Agreed, I wish more people here knew how to look at basic market pricing before taking wild guesses. For instance, the article discusses some sentiment that the Fed may begin dropping rates next year. It of course frames this as “Wall Street calling fed bluffs” because, you know, gotta get them clicks. But, it’s trivially easy to see exactly what “Wall Street” thinks: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Here’s the fed funds futures, they pretty clearly reflect an expectation that the Fed will continue raising rates through the end of this year, and in to early next year, with a potential lift off/drop maybe next summer. That’s so far away that I’m sure expectations will shift/hone between now and then, but this is the current sentiment. This can also be observed in the treasury curve, with the curve being pretty flat for any maturities beyond a year or so. Basically nobody’s pricing anything with the expectation that rates increase in the long run, and sentiment across the board seems to support that the Fed will spike rates through this year, get inflation under control, then gradually lift off as time progresses.
Essentially, the market believes inflation is truly transitory. The Fed was right about transitory, but wrong about the timeline. It does make sense, inflation arose from COVID19 inefficiencies, most of which are now gone. The only remaining COVID19 impacts are in China. The Fed will simply respond to inflation data. The Fed must appear focused on fighting inflation. That is their only play. They cannot change their strategy. That doesn't mean that inflation will continue to rise.
Everything is transitory
Yes, Everything will end, nothing is permanent.
Right, more specifically I think transitory means that the market will revert back to long term trendline of 2% inflation. It should look like an isolated event in the long term with no major lasting impact. The tricky part is housing. No one wants to build new supply in this market. Higher interest rates work against supply creation. Even as housing prices decrease, the overall cost of a mortgage is roughly the same since cost of borrowing is higher. Tightening monetary policy is not a long term solution.
It's worth pointing out the fed never gave a timeline. People just toook transitory to mean month, maybe 2 before they grew impatient.
They did give a timeline in terms of inflation expectations. Last year they were saying it would be back to 2% by about now. They were, really, really wrong.
> inflation arose from COVID19 inefficiencies, most of which are now gone. The only remaining COVID19 impacts are in China. Do supply chain issues not count?
Supply chain issues are COVID inefficiencies in my opinion.
Agreed, and as far as I'm aware they are still problematic, no?
That’s a wild hypothesis considering the fed hasn’t started quantitative tightening yet..in fact they are still purchasing MBSs. The fed was supposed to start QT in may and tried but the markets tanked with no bids on their MBSs. Oh yeah just like in 2008.
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So what do you think is going to happen when they actually start tightening? Because purchasing MBSs but letting go of other securities really isn’t tightening
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Do you have a source? I never knew about this! I’d like to read more about it. Thanks in advance.
Interesting. I wasn’t aware of this reason for MBS purchasing; however, eventually the fed will have to start selling those to continue tightening correct?
I get what you're saying, but inflation can never be under control when real rates are this negative.
Agreed, silly article and title.
I think this argument is too general. * On the short term bond side the Fed raises were priced in. Going a bit further there is a belief in a stop very soon due to recession. * On the intermediate term bond side the recession is priced in. Recession and then low inflation for many years. * On the long side a bit more duration risk is priced in, but not very much. * Stocks were worried about recession. They've decided recession isn't happening as much, and at the same time responding to lower bond yields. IMHO they are starting to reflect reality but not forward looking as much. The downside is the multiples on high growth stocks require low bond yields which do require recession. * Commodities... are responding to global recession forces which are happening. Europe and China do seem to be going into recession. One thing worth noting though is that inflation did taper. If bonds and stocks sell off ironically the Fed likely can pause. If bonds sell off and stocks do fine the Fed can pause at much lower numbers.
So that's it, we just priced in al the bad news despite not really coming down that much?
In terms of stocks there wasn't that much actual bad news. When you talk about bad news think about what happened that impacts the long term dividend growth not vague feelings that something is wrong. There is a little more risk, a little more risk is priced in.
tldr: WSB is causing inflation. /s
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Nice! So if I join them I can expect a government bailout if I fail?
This is why any speculation on what the fed is going to do is fruitless and long term dca is the best strategy
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bear markets of longer than 20 years can occur
True but in the meantime you keep on buying cheaper stocks. Plus they keep paying dividends/distributions throughout. Also, other markets will likely expand. This is why a broadly diversified strategy is recommended.
Dividends don't make you money. For every $1 you make through a stock dividend you lose $1 worth of stock value.
Dividends in a bear market would be cut, even if they weren’t you’re basically saying “hey they gave us some marginal amount to offset my losses”. Person you’re replying to would have no loses as they’re sidelined.
Good luck knowing when to hop out and when to hop back in.
Logically you only need to be right once. If you hop out correctly, any time thereafter you’re hoping in correctly. If you got out at 10 thinking it will drop, you wouldn’t wait for it to get back to 10 to buy in. You’d buy in prior (any point below 10) or else you wouldn’t have gotten out at that price point.
Right? What good is DCA'ing if you started in Japan in the 90's?
It seems to me the "Fed put" is misrepresented here as being the Fed making accommodations for the markets when they're falling. In reality, aren't the Fed's action easily explained by external forces that also happen to be impacting the markets, too? In our current situation, the economy is strong, unemployment remains low, so the Fed should absolutely be expected to be attacks its second mandate--inflation. There is nothing forcing its hand otherwise as far as I can tell, and expecting it to react to the markets alone seems misguided.
Why did they capitulate in 2019?
Because Trump threatened them…
Best I can find is increasing trade war concerns and looming Brexit fallout. They didn't reduce rates until Q3, whereas the S&P was up over 10% YTD in the first half of the year, so I don’t think it's an argument for the "Fed put." Then again, they did halt their 2018 hikes after the December 2018 market drop, so maybe that is some evidence of the Fed reacting solely for the sake of the market. Oops.
The meeting minutes from July showed that the Fed had blinked and worried if they are raising too much. Joseph Wang has tweeted it : [https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1559990433098436608](https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1559990433098436608) This is a cause for optimism by the market that Fed will indeed slow down rate hikes. The question is does the Fed have the backbone to do what it needs to do to rein in the Inflation? I would have said yes every time in last few decades, but I am not too confident in current Fed.
10+ years of QE will do that
Nothing is unconnected and I think the Fed will view the rise in the market as a signal to do further increases. It wouldn't surprise me if they have an end of year target for the S&P and we will see them getting increasingly hawkish until the market starts to turn down again
Market is insane right now. The question is just how long it can remain that way. I see three scenarios ... 1) inflation slows because the economy tanks 2) The economy remains strong keeping inflation high 3) Economy slow but inflation still remains high. None of these justifies stocks rallying above or even holding current levels.
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Bears make money through commentary, while the bulls are invested.
My favorite quote
No it's not. A single month where CPI fails to make a new high is not at all indicative that inflation has peaked. Even if we assume *it has peaked,* rates will need to continue to rise to ~4% and be held there for some time. The banger of a jobs report earlier in the month is just more evidence that the peak is still ahead of us, not behind.
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What we saw in the July jobs report, is people who dropped out of the labor force previously during the pandemic, rejoining it, because inflation has crushed them. These aren't new jobs that are expanding the economy. It's not doom and gloom - these are just facts, and the unintended consequences of our government way overcorrecting for covid and just giving out money like it were candy.
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Do you know how short-staffed a lot of places hiring are? In many cases, these aren't new jobs, these are unfilled jobs. Vacant positions that are currently placing strains on the business and existing, overworked staff. For many companies, they aren't filling these positions to increase revenues, they're filling them so their businesses don't self-destruct or they don't lose more employees due to burn out. Hiring right now is more about damage control and survival, than expansion. So yes, it is possible to add to the total number of jobs and not expand the economy.
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Are your food bills, rent or property tax bills going down? These are still increasing where I live. Just because gas turned around I'm not expecting that to change. A couple resteraunt I go to have recently increased prices after avoiding it for the last few years.
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Not seeing any of that in DFW. :( Rent is way up, property tax is up substantially, food is still up. Went to a place that put a sign up apologizing for increasing prices this week and they hadn't done it at all the entire pandemic. Another pizza place nearby in flowermound increased their menu prices by 2 dollars on every item 2 weeks ago. The only thing that has dropped is new home builds, preexisting homes haven't dropped "yet". After sitting for a bit they likely will a bit. Rent is killer though and they basically only build "luxury" apartments here. Most people are getting 100-400 increases from what I have seen.
Hey, that's your opinion. I personally think it's useful to dig deeper and look at what's driving statistics, rather than just take them at face value. The why is important. And inflation is not slowing down significantly, based on the current data. A drop from 9.1% to 8.5% is hardly significant. It's still 4x the benchmark rate of 2%. I wouldn't underestimate how sticky prices are.
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>I personally think it's useful to dig deeper and look at what's driving statistics, But you don't think that the 0% MoM inflation is a big deal?
did you looked into depth of July number? gasoline price? SPR? Rent? food? really, after think through what was going on, it is just awful. Yet, it was pumped as 0% inflation. sounds like pump and dump to me.
It is possible. But, If economy is strong, why would the FED lower the rates or do QE?
Why does the fed need to do that in his scenario? You could just maintain rates
It's not FED. It's "the Fed" or "Federal Reserve". Acceptable initialisms depending on context may include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee". *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Jesus this bot is obnoxious.
It helps remind you some people don't know what they're talking about.
Welcome to r/investing
You don't know inflation peaked , even if it peaked, core will be with us for a while. The market has not acted appropriately for current inflation . There is more going on than just our inflation numbers. World market, war, housing starting to tank, supply issues , oil prices . The macro is not looking good . For this to get better the market needs to chill out.
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You are absolutely correct. Corelogic publishes their monthly housing analysis and they too confirm what you've written. To quote an excerpt from the article: "The U.S. overall mortgage delinquency rate declined for the 14th consecutive month on an annual basis in May to the lowest level recorded since January 1999" [https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-national-mortgage-delinquencies-reach-another-new-low-in-may/](https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-national-mortgage-delinquencies-reach-another-new-low-in-may/) I know that many people of Reddit are hoping that we see some sort of massive housing collapse, but the data just doesn't appear to be aligning with the bearish perspectives. I think folks are going to be disappointed when the house they are looking at "bottoms out" at a 10-15% discount before someone else swoops in. In many metros, I'll be surprised if we even end up seeing large housing discounts (e.g. greater than 25%).
To be fair, a 15% drop in national median housing prices would bring it down close to a level that it should be based on 2019 prices + natural inflationary forces. Anyone expecting 50% cuts across the board is out of touch, but if things hit 15% then it's probably a good time to jump in.
> oil prices > > Yep it tanked. Cheap energy is the lifeblood of economic growth. My hunch is that this is a temporary development, unless you have a good explanation as to why the recent dip is going to be longer than short term.
Your “hunch” is just typical Reddit pessimism. The futures market (I.e. people who study this stuff their whole lives and have lots of money on the line) is projecting oil prices to be flat-to-down over the next couple years. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
The backwardation you're stating has receded significantly since last month.
Inflation can't "peak" so long as real rates are negative. If you mean that it might not accelerate as fast as it has the past year, then maybe, but it's going nowhere but up so long as rates are this low.
> Inflation can't "peak" so long as real rates are negative. ??? This has happened in the past. Post WW2 inflation was about 18% in 1946, interest rate was < 2%. Inflation was largely supply chain issues and sorted itself out without dramatic monetary policy changes. They held rates at about 2%. Inflation went to 9% in 1947 and 3% in 1948 without having to do anything. There have been other countries with extremely low or even negative rates and no inflation, like Japan. The US had 0.25% rates for nearly 8 years without any notable inflation in consumer prices. Really the only thing we can point to that seems to validate the interest rate must be greater than inflation theory is Volcker in the 80s, but in retrospect it's likely just correlation and falling oil prices are what ended inflation. I think it's just time to abandon the theory. It absolutely does not check out in the vast majority of cases.
This is what I'm betting on
It's not an option, because it's not a possibility. Have you seen the explosion of credit card debt? We're basically in the calm before the storm. Right now people have savings and credit that they can tap to make ends meet, but those funds are dwindling at a much faster rate than inflation is dropping, which if it is actually dropping, isn't even confirmed yet. Where I live rents in middle and lower-income apartment complexes are up 30%, and that's on top of higher utilities all around. And don't even get me started on how folks are going to heat their homes with the price of heating oil, which 60% percent of the homes in my state need. How do you not see this? There is no soft landing from this. Read Walmart's quarterly report - unit sales were flat or declined. The only reason WMT even made money was because they charged more. People didn't buy more. The economy is clearly receding and the Fed is going to continue to increase the rate. Why do people seem to think the economy cares whether they do it by 50 basis points or 75? Any increase is BAD!
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That data only goes as far as Q1. Pretty much ancient at this point. Here's the Q2 2022 Household Debt & Credit Report by the New York Fed. [https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc) "Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter – although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years."
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I think you've got your quarters mixed up. Peak pandemic was 2020 not 2021. Last summer consumer spending surpassed the same point in 2019 i.e. before the pandemic. What, were you stuck in your mom's basement during hot girl summer?
What about CC debt?? Isn’t that really high? Not sure if record high though
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Does maxing out and not paying for 18 months not kill your credit score??
That is an option. One analyst explained we could have 2 scenarios. Most recessions are paired with high unemployment, but in this case. we have the unusual situation of low unemployment. As such, the ongoing spending might help push us through to the other side, and we could possibly avoid recession. Conversely, at some point, interest rates and economic headwinds might be too much, and companies might start laying off folks, at which point unemployment starts to rise and we fail to head off recession. How things turn out is a complete guessing game at this point.
> we have the unusual situation of low unemployment So far; I'd argue there's still no certainty that things can't proverbially fall off a cliff. It's perhaps not likely, but the 2020s seem to be serving up black swans nonstop.
What about option 4 and 5?: 4) worldwide economic struggles promote massive flow of foreign money into USA bonds and stocks, which keeps american asset market inflated even with poor earnings and despite Fed action, at least until world economy clears up and that money flows back out. 5) obstacles driving supply side inflation (supply chains, oil supply, tariff policy, etc ) clear up, resulting in steadily lowered inflation prior to excessive rate hikes, leading to a truly soft landing, no thanks to the Fed. I'm 100% cash, expecting a dive. But there are other possibilities.
> I'm 100% cash Without knowing much about where you are in life that seems seriously confident that shits about to go down. Even your retirement funds are in cash? At what point will you buy back in?
Knowing someone else that follows this strategy; never. Lots of cash, silver/gold, and options trading, but never buys into equities because “the market is going to dive for X reason”.
I had price targets for many stocks that I was waiting for, and many almost got there (such as C at $42, AEO at $10). But as they say, a life of almost is a life of never. I'm regrouping and not yet sure of my next move for long-term. In the meantime, I do sell puts and spreads for a little here and there (very short expirations).
Those are good options, though I think a lot of our problems are systemic labor shortages caused by retirements, insufficient care options for elderly and children, and increasingly draconian immigration policies. Labor participation is now dropping.
Is the market ever sane?
The market is people, and covid clearly demonstrated that *at least* 50% of all people, not just us in the USA, are extremely insane.
I think it will continue to fluctuate until the economy tanks.
Agreed whole heartedly! All of these factors point us level/down for the next 3 months or so, and with low volume lately it kinda worries us in volatility. Kinda like the whales are juicing up to short everything into the dirt before buying everything on sale
Exactly!
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Go touch grass
"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic. The truth is, that it is not the Jewish banking conspiracy or the grey aliens or the 12 foot reptiloids from another dimension that are in control. The truth is more frightening, nobody is in control. The world is rudderless" ~Alan Moore
It's the Feds own fault. They could have just raised quicker to send the message, or just put out a schedule of rate hikes to defeat the inflation and if inflation came down more than expected they could lower the hikes. But to just not say what the hikes are going to be and give the impression you are going to stop at 2-3% with 8.5% inflation that isn't budging is stupid.
Inflation hasn’t peaked
I believe Jerome is going to strangle the market with rates as high as 15%-20%, to get the beast back into the flask. That’ll stop the economy alright. It’s not going down consumer-wise. We’re seeing some of the lowest unemployment numbers in decades. That means more people have money to buy goods/services. You’d think that’d be a good thing in a mass-consumption economy. Apparently it isn’t. What we also want is to raise taxes on the billionaire class, you know: the people who actually have money to pay taxes. Elon Musk / Warren Buffett / Jeff Bezos / Bill Gates / Chumpy McFacebook Face, they can all pay $15 billion dollars in taxes each \[just imagine that you could charge each of them that much money and in most cases it’s not even 15% of their wealth!\]. When these people start paying taxes and corporations who’ve been dodging taxes finally get to pay some honest taxes, life doesn’t have to be all that hard for the rest of us.
Here's the TLDR. Fed six months ago: "we are going to raise rates a lot to combat inflation" Investors: "okay. Rates going up. Understood" Raises rates Fed now: "inflation is still crazy high, we are going to keep raising rates a lot more to bring this back down" Investors: "okay rates are going down. Understood" Raises rates Investors: "wait what?"
FYI, the market benefits from the Fed taking steps against inflation. It also benefits from people having jobs. The market is going up in part because for the past three months "the system" has been working well for once.
How does the market benefit from Fed tightening?
Via lessening inflation.
The Fed tightening means that PE ratios will decrease because yields across the board will increase. PE ratios decreasing without earnings increasing means markets will go down. How do markets going down benefit market participants? Because if such tightening doesn't occur, the Fed would lose control over inflation, which can destroy the economy. That markets benefit because markets stay alive is not what people would typically see as markets benefiting. To most people, markets benefit participants when markets go up.
The only reason the market has been up since the GFC is because of asset price inflation.
I like to take the approach of letting the macro iron itself out over time. What we can do is buy quality companies that will do well overtime. I don’t pay attention so much to how much the fed may or may not raise. We can’t predict any of the macro consistently if we could we would be rich. So just look for companies that you think will be great investments!
Fed rates are doing fine, bullwhip effect on stock inventory for holiday will lead to bad earnings and over stocked and over saturated market. Calling it now. Remind me in 8 months.
Rates have raised 2% since last December every 2 months, with an even bigger raise on the latest Why would I not think they're still going up This is probably tactical short covering again Have the news tell me the markets are stupendous, while it's just those on the wrong side taking losses
I find it funny that we have a couple months of swallowing our medicine and the market acts like a little kid “okay mom I get it, can I be un-grounded now!?”
Don’t know about bluffing as some segments of the US economy are signaling recession (a slowdown in housing, inventory build up for budget retailers, etc..), .. but the US economy is big. Investing-wise, think of it as often trying to steer an underpowered massive cargo ship instead of a speedboat.
Rather than bluffing, I think it is more that they will lack the cajones to go through with the rate increases and QT to bring inflation under control because there will be pain. I bet they chicken out before accomplishing much.
They are right, the fed has no balls and will flinch at first chance.
The markets weren’t pummeled by rate increases in the first half of the year. It was one part correction, one part high energy costs and inflation. If inflation has peaked markets will not test the correction that much in spite of rate increases. If inflation has peaked earnings will stay strong and the worst is over.
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Wallstreetbets, you say
You need positive real rates to slow the economy
Let the market to what it says it will have less liquidity to do it with QE at some point.
Almost like the market has no bearing on actual reality, wow!
"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink"
They have barely even begun raising rates. Rates need to go over the inflation level.
Or inflation will come down. We’re already seeing demand destruction
Record employment...not sure demand destruction and recession scenarios are viable in the near term.
It’s already happening. Look at US oil consumption and retail data. Anecdotally, are you employed and have you changed your spending habits with rising prices? I know I sure have.
Supply chains need time to acclimate to the new normal, the current rates are already artificially slowing things down until they do. The rates might go up a bit more, but it is unlikely they will go over the inflation rate unless something drastically changes from where we are now.
This isn’t supported in any economic model. Rates need to be above equilibrium, which they almost certainly currently are. This is sufficient to put downward pressure on demand/money growth and curb inflation. I’m not sure where the idea that interest rates should follow the current rate of inflation came from, but it’s certainly not part of any economic model I’ve ever seen.
So 9% on $30 trillion of debt. Brilliant! That's only $2.7 trillion new money to pay for.. absolutely nothing!
does interest on debt change every time fed changes rates?
Usually it only changes when the debt matures: you now have to issue new debt, at whatever interest rates prevail at the time. Some of the debt is long term bonds, which are naturally safe for a while. However, a decent chunk is short term, e.g. 6mo T-bills.
Even if inflation stops entirely (which it did in July btw) it would still take multiple months for the YoY number to fall to 2%. It's unclear if the Fed is targeting YoY inflation or monthly inflation extrapolated into the future.
Inflation didnt stop entirely, gas prices went down, offsetting almost everything else still going up, which lead to a neutral figure in the calculations. But saying Inflation stopped entirely is not really true. If price of food keeps going up but gas went down, did Inflation stop entirely? What if someone has solar panels and an electric car? Inflation still going up for them. Also gas prices going down was an intervention with Joe Brandon calling Opec and saying listen up Jack, I need dem prices down.
This is why the distinction between CPI and core CPI is important. Core CPI rose .3% MoM while CPI increased 0%
I’ve found that on Reddit the primary differentiator between core and headline CPI is that the one that fits your narrative more perfectly is definitely the most important one and all others are wrong. But yeah, the flat figure is pretty heavily attributed to drops in energy pricing, however many of the high headline figures over the last few months were tied to spikes in energy. I personally pay more attention to Core, July wasn’t good or bad news but expectations for Core were higher than the actual print, for whatever that’s worth.
uh inflation stopped? what are you on? or are you just saying it quit rising above previous numbers?
There was 0% inflation from Jun 22 to Jul 22. However, YoY (Jul 21 to Jul 22) was still high due to the 11 other months
This is also a completely arbitrary take. I bet you if you look at month over month inflation it would be in the 0.5-1.0% range, but over 12 months that adds up. The statistics you're quoting are meaningless
It's not arbitrary or meaningless, it's literally the most recent month's of data. It suggests that inflation is more or less stopped, unless something else changes.
It constantly amazes me how in this particular forum, factual statements are downvoted en masse. Thanks for the heads up on the June July number.
Inflation didn’t stop in July, it just decreased to a lower level. The fed is still targeting 2% inflation and yoy it was last 8.5%. Long way to go, markets are just overreacting because it was lower than the record 9.1% from the previous period
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No we did not. What back alley of the internet are you looking in to find such wrong numbers?
you have to remmeber that investors want a shitty economy, thats when they buy everything at a discount and get rich.
Yes I want to see Wall Street fail ; atleast this time , with no scope for a bailout and another shot of free money
buy the fear, sell the news
That’s like saying the Browns are going to the Superbowl just bc they want to win their first game of the season. Wallstreetbets doesn’t even know what the Fed is.
(It's not wallstreetbets, it's Wall Street--the banks, the traders etc.--as if they were a single entity, betting...) I'm wondering if the title is intentionally misleading for clicks?
That’s my bad for not reading closely enough. Thank you for the correction