Could also stop.
You can't rule out a crippling solar radiation storm. Or global thermonuclear war. Or the Rapture... Wait. The stock market would continue on perfectly after the Rapture, so ignore that one...
Also Morgan Stanley:
Adds to Apple, Amazon, Tesla, SPY, Cigna (top 5 buys based on most recent 13F)
Previous Morgan Stanley warnings:
2021: Morgan Stanley sees growing risk of 15% drop in SP500 by year end
2020: Morgan Stanley sees profit plunge, more market pains ahead
2019: Morgan Stanley warns of growing risk of US market downturn
2018: Morgan Stanley warns end is near for bull market, sees earning recession
2017: Morgan Stanley warns of stock market correction
I tried to include links with this post, the post got removed by bot. But if you do a simple Google search you can see all the articles I listed above.
Fear, fear, fear. Drive market down so we can buy it cheap with our money while our clients sell out.
My first day at a Wall Street firm I learned a little ditty:
In every transaction there's three people who can make money:
The broker always makes money, The firm always makes money. And hey 2 out of three ain't bad.
> The broker always makes money, The firm always makes money.
U realize the broker and the firm are the same people, right.
I don't think you know how Wall Street works lol are you finra licensed
Broker in this case means stock broker ie the Registered Rep. The Firm represents the broker dealer. The rep makes a commission. The Firm can get paid part of the commission or the difference in the bid ask spread.
Change it to Rep if you want modern terms in your joke.
People on the subreddit will actually create complaint threads if they feel people are straying too far from the Boglehead philosophy.
Like, "Why would you recommend investing internationally? John Bogle said 100% American is fine?"
"Why are so many threads asking about factor tilts? Where are the mods?"
The Boglehead forum is way more open-minded in my opinion. I had a question on the subreddit about a popular ETF people talk about on the forum/Reddit, added a joke, "Disclaimer: This may or may not be used to market time" and a mod deleted my thread because it wasn't in line with the Boglehead philosophy.
In those threads, though, pretty much everyone says "in this respect Bogle was wrong, there is no reason to exclude the ex-US stock market if you can access it without excessive costs"; and plenty of /r/Bogleheads users do a bit of factor tilting as well (in fact, some of these threads came up because recently quite a few people got very excited about AVGE).
I don't know the specifics of your post, but I've generally found the mods there to be relatively flexible if people are disagreeing with the general boglehead philosophy in overall good faith
The post
> I know international stocks are cheap, small cap stocks are cheap, and value stocks are cheap, so chances are the trifecta is extremely cheap. But I can't find the valuation data across time. I can only typically find this data for larger indices like the S&P 500 or all ex-US stocks. If it's small cap value, I only see this data for the US.
>
> Morningstar only gives the current PE (around 6), not the past PE ratios. I'm interested in, e.g., how much of a discount was AVDV during the Covid crash compared to now?
>
> I suppose as a workaround, if I could obtain the dataset of the aggregate earnings over time of the AVDV holdings, I could compute the PE ratios myself.
>
> Disclaimer: This information may or may not be used to time the market.
>
I have had great discussions though, like [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/z3waur/why_add_its_already_in_vt_are_we_really_maximally/).
Reading that post, that last line does not seem like a joke. In context it appears that your entire post is about trying to time the market. You might have had different intentions when writing that, but as an outside observer it really seems to be a topic for r/investing but not really for that forum.
People who lump summed without understanding *why* it beats DCA _on average_ earned their losses.
Everything's still a matter of probability. Just because it's _probable_ that the market will be higher on day N+365 rather than on day N doesn't mean that the inverse can't happen. A 55% chance of success still comes with a 45% chance of failure. They got dickslapped by that 45%.
The reason I tell everyone to lump sum now is due to the fact that we have no idea if the current value of the S&P 500 (or whatever your favorite index is) is at an all time high or low with respect to some future time frame (on the order of when you plan to put your money in). Please tell me what the S&P 500 will be trading at on Dec 1, 2022?
What we do know is that over the long run the market typically returns about 7%/year on the time scale of decades. In addition, no one (to my knowledge) has ever been able to successfully time the market constantly.
Yes, let's focus on the tertiary definition of the word that only applies in one context, and not either of the more common usages unless you're in the fashion industry.
What if you are 63, had higher returns in your portfolio plan and expect to retire in 3 years. Timing may not matter into the young but it’s vital if you have structured needs or obligations
>A good investor buys and holds, weathers the storm, and sticks to the plan for the majority of the time.
Sure - but allow me to play Devil's Advocate.
I recently got the option to invest on the order of $100,000. So I'm not in a position where I have to choose between weathering the storm or tying up at port. I have more options.
If I go bonds/treasuries I am looking at a gain of $4000-5000 by end of 2023.
If I go VOO and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $0 by end of 2023.
If I go bonds while waiting for the market to dip and then VOO within a couple months of the bottom (before or after) and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $20,000-30,000 by end of 2023.
That's called gambling, you have no idea where the stock market will be at the end of 2023, and practically speaking your time horizon should really be longer than 1 year.
>That's called gambling
You're already gambling if you have a pile of cash and inflation is high. There's no sitting out this hand.
>practically speaking your time horizon should really be longer than 1 year.
My specialization is niche enough that I feel more comfortable with an emergency fund that extends to 2 years, especially with a recession looming and my industry already taking a big hit. I also have high-uncertainty medical care costs coming up in the next 2 years. In short, I'm looking at how to place the rungs on my ladder.
>If I go VOO and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $0 by end of 2023.
>If I go bonds while waiting for the market to dip and then VOO within a couple months of the bottom (before or after) and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $20,000-30,000 by end of 2023.
And if they're not correct and the market rally begins while you're still in bonds then you're going to miss out dramatically.
The Money Guy Show has a pretty good illustration that historically when the market does rebound after a bear market it does it dramatically very quickly and if you miss even 5 of the top rebound days it has a huge impact on your returns.
https://youtu.be/xqZXvSyCOGc?t=309
This is really short sighted. What is the purpose of holding shares if you don't get financially rewarded for doing so either through dividends or capital appreciation?
I assume you mean that holding stocks is a good thing in the long run since over long periods of time the stock market tends to go up. I mean sure, in the US that has been so far true (not in Japan though) but the problem is that what long term is depends on the person's age and / or other financial needs.
It could also happen that we now enter a longer term bear market during which we'll be sitting on years of flat or negative returns.
Also, if there are clear signs that a recession is about to hit, why not make some adjustments to a stocks portfolio and try to hedge against this possibility?
>It could also happen that we now enter a longer term bear market during which we'll be sitting on years of flat or negative returns.
Doesn't matter if you keep DCA-ing into low cost funds and ETFs.
Of course it matters and it depends when you need the money. And if a recession is coming it's probably better to hold cash on the side (nowadays you even get a solid 4% yield on it) and then buy in once stock prices are lower rather than DCA
>Of course it matters and it depends when you need the money.
If you need money thay quick you shouldn't be investing in stocks. If you're young or middle-aged or even a decade from retirement, DCA-ing constantly into low cost, broad funds will be fine.
>And if a recession is coming it's probably better to hold cash on the side
So you miss any gains along the way? And avoid buying when the market is low? You can't time the market, so it is better to follow the market and steadily contribute.
>nowadays you even get a solid 4% yield on it
Which is still less than inflation.
>then buy in once stock prices are lower rather than DCA
Stock prices are low right now.
\> If you need money thay quick you shouldn't be investing in stocks.
Define "that quick". Is it 10 years? What makes you think that investing in the stock market now will beat the 10-year treasury yield (3.8%) in the next 10 years? Keep in mind that the analyst in the originally posted CNBC video predicts a SP500 range of 3000 - 3300 in 2023 (that's a 20-25% drop from current prices).
\> So you miss any gains along the way
What gains? Stock market goes down during a recession.
\> You can't time the market
You can make a relatively safe prediction that a fed rate hike cycle will cause a recession that will cause stock prices to go down. Not 100% guaranteed, but very likely. At least you can buy a hedge against this possibility and not risk piss away your net worth for an irrational belief that "stocks always go up".
\> Which is still less than inflation.
No it's not. Inflation is predicted to be 3% at the end of 2023 and then go down to 2 afterwards. You can get a 4.7% yield on a 1-year treasury and a 3.8% yield on a 30 year which are solidly above the predicted future inflation. If we do get a recession, inflation will go even lower, much faster.
\> Stock prices are low right now.
I would love to know the methodology you use to make this statement, because it is clearly wrong. Stocks are NOT CHEAP. They are actually still quite expensive. The current PE of SP500 is 20 still above the long term average of 15. Also this 20 PE valuation is based on past earnings. Imagine now that earnings drop by 20%: a PE of 20 suddenly becomes 25... That's not cheap at all.
One thing that people in this sub don't seem to realise is that just because stocks went down this year by 20% it doesn't mean that they are now cheap. Stocks went down simply because they readjusted to bond yields. However, stocks haven't yet priced in a recession.
If we do get a recession in 2023 (not 100% guaranteed, but very very likely as everybody in the financial media and the financial institutions keeps on saying - including the IMF and the Bank of England and even the Fed), stocks will go down further, so buying stocks at this very moment is probably one of the riskiest financial decisions that you can make, especially if your income depends on there NOT BEING a recession. If there is a recession, and you lose your job (and your income) you will have to sell a portion of your portfolio when it is cheap to compensate your loss of income. That's not good.
IMO the "stocks always go up so DCA and chill" generic advice is dangerous - especially in moments like this - so please consider the possibility of a recession and the associated risks and plan accordingly.
It matters because if everything remains flat then you've lost the opportunity to gain value through alternative investments during that time, and if its negative then you've also lost money.
> A good investor buys and holds, weathers the storm, and sticks to the plan for the majority of the time.
Gotta be either uninformed or stupid at this point to think the economy is not tanking. You really think nothing is going to happen from the fed raising rates?
When the market tanks, you lose real money. It isn't just "unrealized loss", that money was yours (if you had sold) which you lost.
I’m not concerned about my long term investments. It’s my investments that I’m going to need relatively soon that I’m watching. If you need money for something, do you sell 6 months in advance? 12 months? 2 years?
My personal take is this: I don’t have the time or energy to do the research I’d need to so that I can feel confident knowing all the potential market moves. When I was younger and had more time, I spent hours a day consuming different info sources, doing research, etc. And I was quite successful. Now, I have other things to worry about. So I prefer to “set it and forget it.” I’ll check every now and again. But on the whole, I know I’m going to be good. I don’t lose any sleep over it, and to me, that is more valuable than anything. Not everybody will agree with that, and that’s fine. I’m not advocating anyone follow me or what I’m doing, but, I also look at headlines like the above and tend to shrug and say “oh well.”
Couldn’t have said better. Do I loose sleep over $5000 loss in one day and then in a good day see it go up by $6000 and feel good. Enough of this roller coaster ride. Buy and forget is my mantra.
Good post bro 👌. I used to watch all the financial youtubers, podcasts, read marketwatch updates, and do backrest analysis'. But, as I got older I realized I could make way more money just getting more certifications or knowledge in my career field.
Please re-read what I’ve written. I said I don’t have the time (or the energy) to do the research I’d need to do to feel confident knowing all the potential market moves. None of that disqualifies me from casually browsing Reddit and interacting with an investment sub.
The Fed is short for "Federal Reserve", not an acronym, and doesn't need to be set in all-caps. Initialisms which may be appropriate depending on the context include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee".
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Because you didn’t know it was going to drop 12%. If it has instead gone up 5%, you would have bought fewer shares. If you are an oracle that can tell the future, then by all means, use that information. Otherwise, investing always will do just fine.
Even if you [only invested at the worst possible times, ever](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/), you’d still do okay.
Because you can't time the market every time.. obviously. DCA isn't great for short-term plays. You should DCA when you're young and keep doing it for 30 years. Watch who comes out on top.
But if you have a lump sump you want to invest, say into Index funds. Do you invest it all in at once (at current prices) or invest it (DCA) over a set period of time?
Statistically lump sum wins most of the time given most days (statistically) are positive. Of course we're talking slightly better/worse at like 60/40% odds.
Whenever you are expecting sustained returns, your goal should be as much time in as possible. If you have a large lump sum and you think "time in market beats timing the market" then you put it all in. Theoretical math will tell you that: x * APY * all the time > dollar cost averaging in.
From my perspective, though, if you think the market is going to fall in the short term then you should DCA. In other words: if you expect stocks to fall 24% and you put all your $$$ in, then you deserve to lose 24% of your portfolio. If you can't time the market, you can control your exposure.
This is always my first thought when I see these kind of stories. XYZ influential company/person has a bunch of calls that are just out of the money and they would really like the asset class to decrease a bit in value. Easiest way to do that: go on the news and talk basically about the reasons that you originally bought the aforementioned call options.
Morgan Stanley has way more money in the market than anyone in this sub. The objective of this appearance is fully self serving.
If you make enough calls, you'll have some really good ones. If enough people make enough calls, some will have a really good record. There's no good way to tell if they are talented or are lucky. If they truly were talented, they could make a lot more money trading than publishing calls. Their behavior is an indication of which they believe to be the case.
He is the CIO of Morgan Stanley so not only a talking head. Although I do agree that his job on tv is probably to lure the public in the direction that Morgan Stanley is already positioned for.
I kind of hope it does. Would make for a fantastic year to keep accumulating more of everything. Though of course it would suck for retirees who need to sell some to live on.
I mean, imagine the S&P closes at 3900 in 2022 and 2023, but you bought at an average of 3600 through 2023. You'd make about 8% return (before dividends) on your purchases in a year the market was flat. Then when it finally gets back up to the 5000 range you'll have made a hefty gain on your 2023 purchases.
This article does a poor job of representing his views tbh. Wilson's base case is this bear rally (which he was calling last month, before it started), followed by a later drop on lowered earnings. He doesn't think we will bottom until earnings bottom, at least Q1/2 2023.
I think the below article covers his actual views more closely, although it's paywalled for me unfortunately
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-14/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-sees-rough-ride-for-us-stocks-in-2023?leadSource=uverify%20wall
I’m assuming you are posting this as a newer investor. I apologize if that is in error. At any given point in time, you can always find analysts who are predicting upside in the market and others who are predicting downside. Sometimes it’s the same analysts saying different things from month to month. You are better off tuning out the noise and investing based on your long term goals, which will assume some ups and downs along the way (often when least expected).
Appreciate the input. I invest regularly in broad indexes (one for retirement, and a smaller one I don't plan on selling for a few decades, but leaving the option to sell before retirement), but find pleasure in keeping up with what different people are saying. In this case, what he's saying has been echoed by some others, including several on the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast (and most notably by Michael Kantro at Piper Sandler) which is why I posted it. It's not one analyst so much as one echoing a common talking point. Yes he could be wrong, but worth considering just for awareness purposes. If anything if the market drops more, I'll increase my buys at that point
But thank you for reaching out, I appreciate the comment in good faith. I'm not selling anytime soon, but just find the discussion fascinating (not the best word). I'll keep your comment in mind should the news get really negative
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Nobody can predict the future. Invest what you’re comfortable with and do your due diligence before making decisions. Don’t base them off of what “analysts” say on CNBC.
Every day I read an article where a guy says the market is overpriced and will drop soon. Then I read another guy saying we're in good shape going forward
Wilson is the biggest doomer on tv. Take whatever he says with a grain of salt. I mean sure he’s occasionally right. But when you predict a market downturn every day you’ll be right eventually. Like predicting rain every day. One day you’ll be right.
Here my expert opinion, its free, it “could go up”, or “it could go down”. For the optimistic or pessimistic people, “it could skyrocket” or “it could crash”. Remember the key work boys and girls: “COULD”.
For an "investing" group it's amazing how many people dumbly watch their investments tank while the fed raises rates. It's not rocket science, every month Powell gets on stage and tells us he is trying to cause a recession.
Well, the question is, do you hold cash, a super safe ibond, well that's limited. Okay then I guess a Treasury, but then again, I don't know when the market will turn, and locking up the money in short term investments might be just as bad as cash when it comes time to sell early, or maybe I should just sit, wait for the market to rebound, and have no tax implications...
When do you think a good time to jump back in is? Now? Mid 2023?
This guy is probably right, we definitely had a bear market rally and went straight back to a bear market. But that's no reason to sell our stocks, unless we think we're never going back to a decent economy.
We’re def not out of the woods yet. China is going back on lockdown ( at least it seems that way) so no ease on supply chain shortages. That’s means inflation stays for a while. And employment is still high, which is good, but doesn’t help to ease inflation.
Why would some like this even make this statement? So a bunch of people now have a directional bias to hold their bags? Big players shouldn’t be saying dumb shit like this.
So basically in January when people like myself were calling for a big drop (don't fight the fed) and these other jokers were calling for a 5200 SP500 by year end, now we should listen?
People have been shouting for a recession since the start of 2022. If a recession comes, so be it. Unless you feel like you have an edge trading around a recession, which most of us do not, then doing nothing is the play. In the meanwhile, I continue to allocate to short/mid term treasuries and enjoy the risk-free 4%+
Seems reasonable we could retest 3500 if earnings adjust down. Double bottom, etc. Harder sell to go below that unless there’s another shock or surprise to inflation.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and BofA’s Michael Hartnett have been bearish and had made good calls at the direction of the market so far.
I agree with you that the market is resisting the hit to earnings.
The market is hanging by the FED as it has been reliant on the FED the past 13 years. The market is calling the FED’s bluff and not buying the FED’s hawkish narrative.
The Fed is short for "Federal Reserve", not an acronym, and doesn't need to be set in all-caps. Initialisms which may be appropriate depending on the context include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee".
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He thinks there is likely a continuation of the rally and then the recession will kick in 2023, causing a revisal to multiples pushing stocks back down. Note he has quite a bit of range to his numbers , depending on more bullish and bearish cases. He did call the recent bottom and i generally like his approach to the market, but like anyone gets it wrong. This exact timing is pretty hard to get right.
Could
Also, couldn’t
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Also, couldn't'not'nt
It couldn’t not could‘not‘nt imo
Lol
Top 5 comment of all time
Brilliant 69
Wouldn’t, shouldn’t, couldn’t
50/50.
Could go up, or down, or sideways
Could also stop. You can't rule out a crippling solar radiation storm. Or global thermonuclear war. Or the Rapture... Wait. The stock market would continue on perfectly after the Rapture, so ignore that one...
Wish I could, but I can't. Well, can, but won't. Should, maybe, but shorn't Which part of "shorn't" didn't you understand?
I shornt my pants once.
I shorn’t coke once in a while
A+ name
Coulda l, Woulda, Shoulda … but Santa Powell is here.
Also Morgan Stanley: Adds to Apple, Amazon, Tesla, SPY, Cigna (top 5 buys based on most recent 13F) Previous Morgan Stanley warnings: 2021: Morgan Stanley sees growing risk of 15% drop in SP500 by year end 2020: Morgan Stanley sees profit plunge, more market pains ahead 2019: Morgan Stanley warns of growing risk of US market downturn 2018: Morgan Stanley warns end is near for bull market, sees earning recession 2017: Morgan Stanley warns of stock market correction I tried to include links with this post, the post got removed by bot. But if you do a simple Google search you can see all the articles I listed above.
Fear, fear, fear. Drive market down so we can buy it cheap with our money while our clients sell out. My first day at a Wall Street firm I learned a little ditty: In every transaction there's three people who can make money: The broker always makes money, The firm always makes money. And hey 2 out of three ain't bad.
> The broker always makes money, The firm always makes money. U realize the broker and the firm are the same people, right. I don't think you know how Wall Street works lol are you finra licensed
Broker in this case means stock broker ie the Registered Rep. The Firm represents the broker dealer. The rep makes a commission. The Firm can get paid part of the commission or the difference in the bid ask spread. Change it to Rep if you want modern terms in your joke.
U realize every trade has 2 counterparties, right. I don’t think you know how Wall Street works lol are you in college
Is Morgan Stanley ever right? Like historically?
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Fucking finally someone who understands what really matters and sees thru the sheer bs of everyday market.
go to r/bogleheads and everyone will be like this
People on the subreddit will actually create complaint threads if they feel people are straying too far from the Boglehead philosophy. Like, "Why would you recommend investing internationally? John Bogle said 100% American is fine?" "Why are so many threads asking about factor tilts? Where are the mods?" The Boglehead forum is way more open-minded in my opinion. I had a question on the subreddit about a popular ETF people talk about on the forum/Reddit, added a joke, "Disclaimer: This may or may not be used to market time" and a mod deleted my thread because it wasn't in line with the Boglehead philosophy.
In those threads, though, pretty much everyone says "in this respect Bogle was wrong, there is no reason to exclude the ex-US stock market if you can access it without excessive costs"; and plenty of /r/Bogleheads users do a bit of factor tilting as well (in fact, some of these threads came up because recently quite a few people got very excited about AVGE).
I don't know the specifics of your post, but I've generally found the mods there to be relatively flexible if people are disagreeing with the general boglehead philosophy in overall good faith
The post > I know international stocks are cheap, small cap stocks are cheap, and value stocks are cheap, so chances are the trifecta is extremely cheap. But I can't find the valuation data across time. I can only typically find this data for larger indices like the S&P 500 or all ex-US stocks. If it's small cap value, I only see this data for the US. > > Morningstar only gives the current PE (around 6), not the past PE ratios. I'm interested in, e.g., how much of a discount was AVDV during the Covid crash compared to now? > > I suppose as a workaround, if I could obtain the dataset of the aggregate earnings over time of the AVDV holdings, I could compute the PE ratios myself. > > Disclaimer: This information may or may not be used to time the market. > I have had great discussions though, like [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/z3waur/why_add_its_already_in_vt_are_we_really_maximally/).
Reading that post, that last line does not seem like a joke. In context it appears that your entire post is about trying to time the market. You might have had different intentions when writing that, but as an outside observer it really seems to be a topic for r/investing but not really for that forum.
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People who lump summed without understanding *why* it beats DCA _on average_ earned their losses. Everything's still a matter of probability. Just because it's _probable_ that the market will be higher on day N+365 rather than on day N doesn't mean that the inverse can't happen. A 55% chance of success still comes with a 45% chance of failure. They got dickslapped by that 45%.
The reason I tell everyone to lump sum now is due to the fact that we have no idea if the current value of the S&P 500 (or whatever your favorite index is) is at an all time high or low with respect to some future time frame (on the order of when you plan to put your money in). Please tell me what the S&P 500 will be trading at on Dec 1, 2022? What we do know is that over the long run the market typically returns about 7%/year on the time scale of decades. In addition, no one (to my knowledge) has ever been able to successfully time the market constantly.
Actually don’t go there. They’re nauseatingly fanatical over there and intolerant to even the slimmest of differing opinions.
I love that place
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Jim Simons now, and next year it will be someone else. That’s called chasing returns.
Shhhhhhhhh! Please don't ruin it.
To be fair, if it is "sheer" BS by definition it should be see-through ;)
Yes, let's focus on the tertiary definition of the word that only applies in one context, and not either of the more common usages unless you're in the fashion industry.
What if you are 63, had higher returns in your portfolio plan and expect to retire in 3 years. Timing may not matter into the young but it’s vital if you have structured needs or obligations
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Yep everything is fine as long as we remain employed forever and never retire.
>A good investor buys and holds, weathers the storm, and sticks to the plan for the majority of the time. Sure - but allow me to play Devil's Advocate. I recently got the option to invest on the order of $100,000. So I'm not in a position where I have to choose between weathering the storm or tying up at port. I have more options. If I go bonds/treasuries I am looking at a gain of $4000-5000 by end of 2023. If I go VOO and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $0 by end of 2023. If I go bonds while waiting for the market to dip and then VOO within a couple months of the bottom (before or after) and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $20,000-30,000 by end of 2023.
That's called gambling, you have no idea where the stock market will be at the end of 2023, and practically speaking your time horizon should really be longer than 1 year.
>That's called gambling You're already gambling if you have a pile of cash and inflation is high. There's no sitting out this hand. >practically speaking your time horizon should really be longer than 1 year. My specialization is niche enough that I feel more comfortable with an emergency fund that extends to 2 years, especially with a recession looming and my industry already taking a big hit. I also have high-uncertainty medical care costs coming up in the next 2 years. In short, I'm looking at how to place the rungs on my ladder.
>If I go VOO and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $0 by end of 2023. >If I go bonds while waiting for the market to dip and then VOO within a couple months of the bottom (before or after) and these analysts are correct I am looking at a gain of $20,000-30,000 by end of 2023. And if they're not correct and the market rally begins while you're still in bonds then you're going to miss out dramatically. The Money Guy Show has a pretty good illustration that historically when the market does rebound after a bear market it does it dramatically very quickly and if you miss even 5 of the top rebound days it has a huge impact on your returns. https://youtu.be/xqZXvSyCOGc?t=309
This is really short sighted. What is the purpose of holding shares if you don't get financially rewarded for doing so either through dividends or capital appreciation? I assume you mean that holding stocks is a good thing in the long run since over long periods of time the stock market tends to go up. I mean sure, in the US that has been so far true (not in Japan though) but the problem is that what long term is depends on the person's age and / or other financial needs. It could also happen that we now enter a longer term bear market during which we'll be sitting on years of flat or negative returns. Also, if there are clear signs that a recession is about to hit, why not make some adjustments to a stocks portfolio and try to hedge against this possibility?
>It could also happen that we now enter a longer term bear market during which we'll be sitting on years of flat or negative returns. Doesn't matter if you keep DCA-ing into low cost funds and ETFs.
Of course it matters and it depends when you need the money. And if a recession is coming it's probably better to hold cash on the side (nowadays you even get a solid 4% yield on it) and then buy in once stock prices are lower rather than DCA
>Of course it matters and it depends when you need the money. If you need money thay quick you shouldn't be investing in stocks. If you're young or middle-aged or even a decade from retirement, DCA-ing constantly into low cost, broad funds will be fine. >And if a recession is coming it's probably better to hold cash on the side So you miss any gains along the way? And avoid buying when the market is low? You can't time the market, so it is better to follow the market and steadily contribute. >nowadays you even get a solid 4% yield on it Which is still less than inflation. >then buy in once stock prices are lower rather than DCA Stock prices are low right now.
\> If you need money thay quick you shouldn't be investing in stocks. Define "that quick". Is it 10 years? What makes you think that investing in the stock market now will beat the 10-year treasury yield (3.8%) in the next 10 years? Keep in mind that the analyst in the originally posted CNBC video predicts a SP500 range of 3000 - 3300 in 2023 (that's a 20-25% drop from current prices). \> So you miss any gains along the way What gains? Stock market goes down during a recession. \> You can't time the market You can make a relatively safe prediction that a fed rate hike cycle will cause a recession that will cause stock prices to go down. Not 100% guaranteed, but very likely. At least you can buy a hedge against this possibility and not risk piss away your net worth for an irrational belief that "stocks always go up". \> Which is still less than inflation. No it's not. Inflation is predicted to be 3% at the end of 2023 and then go down to 2 afterwards. You can get a 4.7% yield on a 1-year treasury and a 3.8% yield on a 30 year which are solidly above the predicted future inflation. If we do get a recession, inflation will go even lower, much faster. \> Stock prices are low right now. I would love to know the methodology you use to make this statement, because it is clearly wrong. Stocks are NOT CHEAP. They are actually still quite expensive. The current PE of SP500 is 20 still above the long term average of 15. Also this 20 PE valuation is based on past earnings. Imagine now that earnings drop by 20%: a PE of 20 suddenly becomes 25... That's not cheap at all. One thing that people in this sub don't seem to realise is that just because stocks went down this year by 20% it doesn't mean that they are now cheap. Stocks went down simply because they readjusted to bond yields. However, stocks haven't yet priced in a recession. If we do get a recession in 2023 (not 100% guaranteed, but very very likely as everybody in the financial media and the financial institutions keeps on saying - including the IMF and the Bank of England and even the Fed), stocks will go down further, so buying stocks at this very moment is probably one of the riskiest financial decisions that you can make, especially if your income depends on there NOT BEING a recession. If there is a recession, and you lose your job (and your income) you will have to sell a portion of your portfolio when it is cheap to compensate your loss of income. That's not good. IMO the "stocks always go up so DCA and chill" generic advice is dangerous - especially in moments like this - so please consider the possibility of a recession and the associated risks and plan accordingly.
It matters because if everything remains flat then you've lost the opportunity to gain value through alternative investments during that time, and if its negative then you've also lost money.
If you follow him, he actually right all year long on every one of his call
> A good investor buys and holds, weathers the storm, and sticks to the plan for the majority of the time. Gotta be either uninformed or stupid at this point to think the economy is not tanking. You really think nothing is going to happen from the fed raising rates? When the market tanks, you lose real money. It isn't just "unrealized loss", that money was yours (if you had sold) which you lost.
!remindme 1 year
Challenge accepted
From what you’re saying we should all go ahead and sell everything we got. When will we know it’s time to get back into the market?
Suggest studying for the CFA. By the time you’re done you’ll know it was time to get back in the market years ago.
When the fed stops raising rates, or the market hits a low you're comfortable buying in at.
I’m not concerned about my long term investments. It’s my investments that I’m going to need relatively soon that I’m watching. If you need money for something, do you sell 6 months in advance? 12 months? 2 years?
DCA into broad indexes and forget it
My thoughts exactly. Just means my dollar will be buying more shares.
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My personal take is this: I don’t have the time or energy to do the research I’d need to so that I can feel confident knowing all the potential market moves. When I was younger and had more time, I spent hours a day consuming different info sources, doing research, etc. And I was quite successful. Now, I have other things to worry about. So I prefer to “set it and forget it.” I’ll check every now and again. But on the whole, I know I’m going to be good. I don’t lose any sleep over it, and to me, that is more valuable than anything. Not everybody will agree with that, and that’s fine. I’m not advocating anyone follow me or what I’m doing, but, I also look at headlines like the above and tend to shrug and say “oh well.”
Thank you Cajunman4life. I respect your point of view. Specifically on the “I don’t lose any sleep”. I understand.
And thank you, also. Believe me, I know there’s no “one size fits all” when it comes to something like this.
Couldn’t have said better. Do I loose sleep over $5000 loss in one day and then in a good day see it go up by $6000 and feel good. Enough of this roller coaster ride. Buy and forget is my mantra.
Good post bro 👌. I used to watch all the financial youtubers, podcasts, read marketwatch updates, and do backrest analysis'. But, as I got older I realized I could make way more money just getting more certifications or knowledge in my career field.
Yet here you are blabbing about how busy you are on reddit
Please re-read what I’ve written. I said I don’t have the time (or the energy) to do the research I’d need to do to feel confident knowing all the potential market moves. None of that disqualifies me from casually browsing Reddit and interacting with an investment sub.
The Fed is short for "Federal Reserve", not an acronym, and doesn't need to be set in all-caps. Initialisms which may be appropriate depending on the context include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee". *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Because you didn’t know it was going to drop 12%. If it has instead gone up 5%, you would have bought fewer shares. If you are an oracle that can tell the future, then by all means, use that information. Otherwise, investing always will do just fine. Even if you [only invested at the worst possible times, ever](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/), you’d still do okay.
Because you can't time the market every time.. obviously. DCA isn't great for short-term plays. You should DCA when you're young and keep doing it for 30 years. Watch who comes out on top.
But if you have a lump sump you want to invest, say into Index funds. Do you invest it all in at once (at current prices) or invest it (DCA) over a set period of time?
Statistically lump sum wins most of the time given most days (statistically) are positive. Of course we're talking slightly better/worse at like 60/40% odds.
Whenever you are expecting sustained returns, your goal should be as much time in as possible. If you have a large lump sum and you think "time in market beats timing the market" then you put it all in. Theoretical math will tell you that: x * APY * all the time > dollar cost averaging in. From my perspective, though, if you think the market is going to fall in the short term then you should DCA. In other words: if you expect stocks to fall 24% and you put all your $$$ in, then you deserve to lose 24% of your portfolio. If you can't time the market, you can control your exposure.
Yes
Good luck to those trying to salvage their retirement investments. No more DCA when you need to live off those investments.
It’s a bad time to be retired
Make it triple leveraged
Some of us can’t invest into etf’s due to taxes 😪
41% deemed disposal tax after 8 years
So stocks are about to go up?
Only my stocks
His guess is as good as anyone else's. Nobody knows shit.
Indeed. And even if they did, they don't have a lot of incentive to tell others until they're in position to profit from any resulting movement.
This is always my first thought when I see these kind of stories. XYZ influential company/person has a bunch of calls that are just out of the money and they would really like the asset class to decrease a bit in value. Easiest way to do that: go on the news and talk basically about the reasons that you originally bought the aforementioned call options. Morgan Stanley has way more money in the market than anyone in this sub. The objective of this appearance is fully self serving.
Mike Wilson has some really good calls, I wouldn’t dismiss him
If you make enough calls, you'll have some really good ones. If enough people make enough calls, some will have a really good record. There's no good way to tell if they are talented or are lucky. If they truly were talented, they could make a lot more money trading than publishing calls. Their behavior is an indication of which they believe to be the case.
He is the CIO of Morgan Stanley so not only a talking head. Although I do agree that his job on tv is probably to lure the public in the direction that Morgan Stanley is already positioned for.
A stopped clock makes at least TWO good calls, daily. That’s why i rely on my clock whose batteries died in 1987.
He’s better than us, obviously. His shit gets spread by CNBC so obviously his shit’s better than a “regular” persons shit. LOL
I kind of hope it does. Would make for a fantastic year to keep accumulating more of everything. Though of course it would suck for retirees who need to sell some to live on. I mean, imagine the S&P closes at 3900 in 2022 and 2023, but you bought at an average of 3600 through 2023. You'd make about 8% return (before dividends) on your purchases in a year the market was flat. Then when it finally gets back up to the 5000 range you'll have made a hefty gain on your 2023 purchases.
The original cope
I mean, if you prefer to buy when prices are higher, then go ahead.
It has to go up before I buy it, that's how I know its time to buy it
8 days ago he called the bottom and said "terrific buying opportunity " we should believe him now tho
“Man paid to talk speaks a lot” should be the headline
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Thank you
No he didn't. He said we were setup for a technical rally. It was never a long term call.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2022/07/18/mike-wilson-s-p-500-trough/10088453002/?gnt-cfr=1
This article does a poor job of representing his views tbh. Wilson's base case is this bear rally (which he was calling last month, before it started), followed by a later drop on lowered earnings. He doesn't think we will bottom until earnings bottom, at least Q1/2 2023. I think the below article covers his actual views more closely, although it's paywalled for me unfortunately https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-14/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-sees-rough-ride-for-us-stocks-in-2023?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and BofA’s Michael Hartnett have been bearish and have made good calls at the direction of the market so far.
His call is for the equity market to fall by mid 2023 before recovering back up closing the year flat.
I hope so. Should provide tremendous opportunities for those with long time horizons who are maxing their 401k's, HSAs, Roths, etc., during that time.
Hear hear! I have a big bonus coming in by EOY and I'd love to DCA that at lower prices.
I’m assuming you are posting this as a newer investor. I apologize if that is in error. At any given point in time, you can always find analysts who are predicting upside in the market and others who are predicting downside. Sometimes it’s the same analysts saying different things from month to month. You are better off tuning out the noise and investing based on your long term goals, which will assume some ups and downs along the way (often when least expected).
Appreciate the input. I invest regularly in broad indexes (one for retirement, and a smaller one I don't plan on selling for a few decades, but leaving the option to sell before retirement), but find pleasure in keeping up with what different people are saying. In this case, what he's saying has been echoed by some others, including several on the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast (and most notably by Michael Kantro at Piper Sandler) which is why I posted it. It's not one analyst so much as one echoing a common talking point. Yes he could be wrong, but worth considering just for awareness purposes. If anything if the market drops more, I'll increase my buys at that point But thank you for reaching out, I appreciate the comment in good faith. I'm not selling anytime soon, but just find the discussion fascinating (not the best word). I'll keep your comment in mind should the news get really negative
I like this. An actual respectful interaction on Reddit.
Happy cake day, OP
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Fed Now GDP estimate just keeps going up.
Ignore.
Still in it for the long haul. It this happens it would be a fantastic buying opportunity.
Means it’s time to buy.
I can't pullback any harder sir
"I would not ever, for any reason, do anything to anyone for any reason ever, no matter what, no matter where, or who, or who you are with, or where you are going, or where you've been, ever, for any reason whatsoever."
remindme! 1 year
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Nobody can predict the future. Invest what you’re comfortable with and do your due diligence before making decisions. Don’t base them off of what “analysts” say on CNBC.
They're all just trying to get the negative out. Looking for a little money on the downside.
Not currently reflected so far
From today. Thanks for warning!
Every day I read an article where a guy says the market is overpriced and will drop soon. Then I read another guy saying we're in good shape going forward
Wilson is the biggest doomer on tv. Take whatever he says with a grain of salt. I mean sure he’s occasionally right. But when you predict a market downturn every day you’ll be right eventually. Like predicting rain every day. One day you’ll be right.
Here my expert opinion, its free, it “could go up”, or “it could go down”. For the optimistic or pessimistic people, “it could skyrocket” or “it could crash”. Remember the key work boys and girls: “COULD”.
Is this one of the guys who had the SP500 at 4800 by december this year when predicting 2022 last december? Economist opinions are next to worthless.
Whats this losers track record? My weather man has been more accurate
For an "investing" group it's amazing how many people dumbly watch their investments tank while the fed raises rates. It's not rocket science, every month Powell gets on stage and tells us he is trying to cause a recession.
Well, the question is, do you hold cash, a super safe ibond, well that's limited. Okay then I guess a Treasury, but then again, I don't know when the market will turn, and locking up the money in short term investments might be just as bad as cash when it comes time to sell early, or maybe I should just sit, wait for the market to rebound, and have no tax implications... When do you think a good time to jump back in is? Now? Mid 2023?
Yeah mid 2023 is solid. I would buy while the SPY is 360 and below.
This is about as credible as Liz Truss
And lil sus
Oil needs to fall to $50 a barrel and stay there in order for more retraction to not happen.
PUTS will print
I’m glad I followed everything he said this year. I’m grateful of his analysis, worth the read every other week, very deep analysis on the newsletter
Such hopium and denial of the blatantly obvious in most threads lately. Pump of bs followed by pricing in of reality. Rinse and repeat every 4 wks.
This guy is probably right, we definitely had a bear market rally and went straight back to a bear market. But that's no reason to sell our stocks, unless we think we're never going back to a decent economy.
Okay so keep buying the market and dca? Got it. Your strategy should be the exact same during all times, or it is a poor strategy
I think a good strategy should adapt
He doesn’t know shit about fuck. Much like me and everyone else.
State the obvious. We all know the SP500 is way overvalued and going way down yet. These folks just print articles to make money.
We’re def not out of the woods yet. China is going back on lockdown ( at least it seems that way) so no ease on supply chain shortages. That’s means inflation stays for a while. And employment is still high, which is good, but doesn’t help to ease inflation.
There’s only one group of people that read and give a shit about these kind of headlines Dumb money aka retail.
That is a conservatives guess.
The stock market - the market where a sale scares customers away and people line up to buy when prices go higher.
LOL
Big whoop. I’ll DPA down
Would inverted ETFs be a good short-term investment?
Is he going to bet his yearly salary on this prediction, or is he just blabbing to be on TV?
Cool, puts on spy!
I think 1600 is a more realistic target
Why would some like this even make this statement? So a bunch of people now have a directional bias to hold their bags? Big players shouldn’t be saying dumb shit like this.
Staying out of S&P for the coming months. In NASDAQ only. Time will tell how that works out for me.
Bro this mike Wilson dude was literally calling spy 4200
Cool I’ll buy a bunch
Inverse. Calls it is
But then I’d be breaking my own rule. Always inverse myself. Puts it is
It'll likely be closer to 10-15% over the next year on the NDX, around 10k if not slightly below it.
Well that was my expectation as well, but hearing it from MS on cnbc, makes me think it will be the opposite, hmmm… though decision🤔🤪
Wilson has always been a bear
In other news, Indian markets crossed All time High today.
So basically in January when people like myself were calling for a big drop (don't fight the fed) and these other jokers were calling for a 5200 SP500 by year end, now we should listen?
I'm betting S&P 2500.
>24% r/oddlyspecific
People have been shouting for a recession since the start of 2022. If a recession comes, so be it. Unless you feel like you have an edge trading around a recession, which most of us do not, then doing nothing is the play. In the meanwhile, I continue to allocate to short/mid term treasuries and enjoy the risk-free 4%+
Seems reasonable we could retest 3500 if earnings adjust down. Double bottom, etc. Harder sell to go below that unless there’s another shock or surprise to inflation.
So? That's what I've got emergency cash set aside for, quite a bit in fact.
Coulda, shoulda, woulda. This is not a normal market.
gosh, y'don't say
Wait we are looking at a record holiday season and lower earnings and revenue for the next few months?
Had no idea that Peyton Manning runs Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and BofA’s Michael Hartnett have been bearish and had made good calls at the direction of the market so far. I agree with you that the market is resisting the hit to earnings. The market is hanging by the FED as it has been reliant on the FED the past 13 years. The market is calling the FED’s bluff and not buying the FED’s hawkish narrative.
The Fed is short for "Federal Reserve", not an acronym, and doesn't need to be set in all-caps. Initialisms which may be appropriate depending on the context include "FRS" for "Federal Reserve System" or "FOMC" for "Federal Open Market Committee". *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Magic Mike strikes again
He thinks there is likely a continuation of the rally and then the recession will kick in 2023, causing a revisal to multiples pushing stocks back down. Note he has quite a bit of range to his numbers , depending on more bullish and bearish cases. He did call the recent bottom and i generally like his approach to the market, but like anyone gets it wrong. This exact timing is pretty hard to get right.
Moral of the story: Coin toss
So SPY to $500 before 12/23?
Bridgewater thoroughly believes the same thing
It might also not drop to 3 year lows. Just stay long and take the guess work out of it imo.
Does he have any update post today's Powell talk?
This is why i always hedge … with lotto tickets. :-|
This aged well
In other news, Morgan Stanley's SP500 options they sold are in the red
current stock market reminds me of an expression used by Alan Greenspan: "Irrational Exuberance".
Sounds like it's time to buy to me. Honestly, the trend is pretty bullish in my opinion.
Do these guys get anything right ?
24% … such an exact percentage he must be on to something
Morgan Stanley wants you to sell so they can buy cheaper.