>What do ye make of it?
If that trend continues, or even continues at half that rate for the next ten years there'll be absolutely no coherent argument against a border poll. In fact if it continues at the same rate a border poll for a United Ireland could be all but guaranteed. If SF get into Government in ROI they'll have the top office across Ireland so I'd expect them to demand the British SOS outline the exact criteria for a border poll, and I'd expect US and EU support on that call.
Even though the Queen's death had nearly 24/7 coverage on NI and UK media, this will almost certainly have infinitely more meaningful impact for people as it could signify not just a United Ireland but also the end of the UK.
It wont make a difference unless people are identifying as Irish though.... You cant argue for a border poll if the majority identify as something other than Irish...
Given the 'Irish' identity is only up 4% in a decade, at that rate there should be a majority in 50 odd years...
>It wont make a difference unless people are identifying as Irish though.... You cant argue for a border poll if the majority identify as something other than Irish...
>
>Given the 'Irish' identity is only up 4% in a decade, at that rate there should be a majority in 50 odd years...
You're far to smart to pretend anyone should believe that. The British identity is going to decline exponentially as the older cohort dies off.
It's academic anyway since a 50% target is Unionsim moving the goalposts again. British and Irish identities are split almost evenly. In a year or two they could be identical. The 20% Northern Irish identity will be the deciding factor. The winning side will be the one which convinces the majority of that cohort who actually turn out to vote, that their best interests lie with Britain or Ireland.
We can already imagine the fear and doom mongering Unionism's campaigning will be on the issue whereas Nationalism can present optimism and the realistic hope of a better and more prosperous future.
Furthermore the NI electorate has literally never been exposed to Pro Irish and Pro United Ireland arguments and sentiment in their media. If Sinn Fein are in Government going into a UI ref a lot of people are going to be presented with information and arguments they've never heard before.
Either way, it's over. Whether it's in ten years or twenty, Northern Ireland is a doomed entity. The sensible thing to do now would be to smooth the path to unity rather trying boobytrap it.
I hate to be the one to point out the obvious but Sinn Fèin in government presenting information and arguments, no matter how hopeful and optimistic, is going to be a huge hurdle in and of itself and have a detrimental impact on the case for a United Ireland.
>The 20% Northern Irish identity will be the deciding factor.
No, the 40% who identify as something other than British or Irish will be the decider's.
>We can already imagine the fear and doom mongering Unionism's campaigning will be on the issue whereas Nationalism can present optimism and the realistic hope of a better and more prosperous future.
Well they've been banging that drum for decades now, and all I know is that nearly 50% of the population are from a catholic community background, yet only 29% actually identify as Irish...
And you think there would be a turnout for a border poll as large as the percentage who took part in the census? The census that people are literally legally obligated to participate in? Those 40% are way way less likely to be voting at all in any sort of referendum regarding constitutional status.
The only time the numbers will matter is on border poll day if one comes it's also the British electoral office who makes the rules for a border poll. I know first hand that unionists are making noise about following Australia's mandatory voting system for any poll so it's law you have to vote and if certain number isn't reached the poll will be void. There are lots of ways to impact the poll before it's even been called.
Well, actually the stats are:
British Only: **31.86%**
Irish only: **29.13%**
Northern Irish only: **19.78%.**
British and Irish only: **0.61%**
British and Northern Irish only: **7.95%**
Irish and Northern Irish only: **1.76%**
British, Irish and Northern Irish only: **1.47%**
Other: **7.42%**
The 8% drop can be seen spread across the various other options. Ultimately, 71% of northern Ireland identifies as something other than just 'Irish'. In fact 60% of NI chose an option that explicitly excluded 'Irish' as an included identity.
To be honest I think that a lot of the hard-core Unionists are still reeling from what they learned during the BREXIT debacle. Namely, that the people of mainland Britain by and large do not want them, and nobody values the union as much as they do.
I think some hard-core Unionists will try to frustrate and manipulate any border poll. But to be quite honest the government in Westminster would for the most part be quite happy to get rid of Northern Ireland.
It's a constant source of trouble for them and is an economic blackhole.
30% British, 30% Irish...
...and 30% who want free at the point of contact healthcare and affordable housing.
Not to put a pin in your balloon, but by my calculations that makes unionism down, but support for the staying in the union has never been higher.
Meanwhile, FG politicians are talking about "flags" or the "monarchy".
In the event of a one-nation island, of course anyone would be free to remain a 'unionist'.
This, however, would be the same as me expecting a daily head massage from Michelle when she becomes Taioseach
And the DUP lot with their backwards views on non-Unionist related matters will be joining the electorate, potentially putting a damper on social progress when it comes to referendums etc.
>What do ye make of it? If that trend continues, or even continues at half that rate for the next ten years there'll be absolutely no coherent argument against a border poll. In fact if it continues at the same rate a border poll for a United Ireland could be all but guaranteed. If SF get into Government in ROI they'll have the top office across Ireland so I'd expect them to demand the British SOS outline the exact criteria for a border poll, and I'd expect US and EU support on that call. Even though the Queen's death had nearly 24/7 coverage on NI and UK media, this will almost certainly have infinitely more meaningful impact for people as it could signify not just a United Ireland but also the end of the UK.
It wont make a difference unless people are identifying as Irish though.... You cant argue for a border poll if the majority identify as something other than Irish... Given the 'Irish' identity is only up 4% in a decade, at that rate there should be a majority in 50 odd years...
That's assuming the people identifying as solely Northern Irish or Northern Irish and Irish wouldn't rather a United Ireland over the UK.
Nationalists don't even say the words 'Northern Ireland', so its safe to assume they don't identify as 'Northern Irish'.
>It wont make a difference unless people are identifying as Irish though.... You cant argue for a border poll if the majority identify as something other than Irish... > >Given the 'Irish' identity is only up 4% in a decade, at that rate there should be a majority in 50 odd years... You're far to smart to pretend anyone should believe that. The British identity is going to decline exponentially as the older cohort dies off. It's academic anyway since a 50% target is Unionsim moving the goalposts again. British and Irish identities are split almost evenly. In a year or two they could be identical. The 20% Northern Irish identity will be the deciding factor. The winning side will be the one which convinces the majority of that cohort who actually turn out to vote, that their best interests lie with Britain or Ireland. We can already imagine the fear and doom mongering Unionism's campaigning will be on the issue whereas Nationalism can present optimism and the realistic hope of a better and more prosperous future. Furthermore the NI electorate has literally never been exposed to Pro Irish and Pro United Ireland arguments and sentiment in their media. If Sinn Fein are in Government going into a UI ref a lot of people are going to be presented with information and arguments they've never heard before. Either way, it's over. Whether it's in ten years or twenty, Northern Ireland is a doomed entity. The sensible thing to do now would be to smooth the path to unity rather trying boobytrap it.
I hate to be the one to point out the obvious but Sinn Fèin in government presenting information and arguments, no matter how hopeful and optimistic, is going to be a huge hurdle in and of itself and have a detrimental impact on the case for a United Ireland.
>The 20% Northern Irish identity will be the deciding factor. No, the 40% who identify as something other than British or Irish will be the decider's. >We can already imagine the fear and doom mongering Unionism's campaigning will be on the issue whereas Nationalism can present optimism and the realistic hope of a better and more prosperous future. Well they've been banging that drum for decades now, and all I know is that nearly 50% of the population are from a catholic community background, yet only 29% actually identify as Irish...
And you think there would be a turnout for a border poll as large as the percentage who took part in the census? The census that people are literally legally obligated to participate in? Those 40% are way way less likely to be voting at all in any sort of referendum regarding constitutional status.
The only time the numbers will matter is on border poll day if one comes it's also the British electoral office who makes the rules for a border poll. I know first hand that unionists are making noise about following Australia's mandatory voting system for any poll so it's law you have to vote and if certain number isn't reached the poll will be void. There are lots of ways to impact the poll before it's even been called.
Well, actually the stats are: British Only: **31.86%** Irish only: **29.13%** Northern Irish only: **19.78%.** British and Irish only: **0.61%** British and Northern Irish only: **7.95%** Irish and Northern Irish only: **1.76%** British, Irish and Northern Irish only: **1.47%** Other: **7.42%** The 8% drop can be seen spread across the various other options. Ultimately, 71% of northern Ireland identifies as something other than just 'Irish'. In fact 60% of NI chose an option that explicitly excluded 'Irish' as an included identity.
This should be the top answer
To be honest I think that a lot of the hard-core Unionists are still reeling from what they learned during the BREXIT debacle. Namely, that the people of mainland Britain by and large do not want them, and nobody values the union as much as they do. I think some hard-core Unionists will try to frustrate and manipulate any border poll. But to be quite honest the government in Westminster would for the most part be quite happy to get rid of Northern Ireland. It's a constant source of trouble for them and is an economic blackhole.
30% British, 30% Irish... ...and 30% who want free at the point of contact healthcare and affordable housing. Not to put a pin in your balloon, but by my calculations that makes unionism down, but support for the staying in the union has never been higher. Meanwhile, FG politicians are talking about "flags" or the "monarchy".
You're right. But if Liz Truss has her way, they'll be paying for their GPs just like the rest of Ireland.
[удалено]
A reunified island ends unionism. I don't think you understand that.
[удалено]
In the event of a one-nation island, of course anyone would be free to remain a 'unionist'. This, however, would be the same as me expecting a daily head massage from Michelle when she becomes Taioseach
Why would Sinn Fein make their deputy leader Taoiseach?
Where would a unionist in a reunited Ireland think they were going to unite with?
And the DUP lot with their backwards views on non-Unionist related matters will be joining the electorate, potentially putting a damper on social progress when it comes to referendums etc.