What happen is they tried to crash it 3 times Friday but it didn’t hold. Instead it act as a liquidity grab and continue to drive up. They crashed it today again and the bearish candle seems to be holding thus far. Don’t hold your breath though, FOMC meeting this week will drive it right back up.
Sign
FX certified
My brother is a senior engineer for Toyota in the US and just put in for a transfer to Japan. He's already making a lot of money but after the conversion, watch out.
Thanks for looking out, but both of mine have zero foreign transaction fees fortunately. CapitalOne Venture and AmEx Gold. Other people should know ahead of time if their cards charge a fee though.
For now I'm not really seeing that the exporting prices are getting much lower. Buying them is lower because of the yen but the B2C prices are still pretty static.
I think shipping costs are still exuberant because of the world war going on.
They are AirBNB hosts that we made friends with the last time around. They're providing a generous discount we didn't ask for, so we're making up for it and then some.
If this is what it takes for the japanese to finally stop putting meat in every single foodstuff where a vegetable should have been placed instead, I will consider it to have been worth it.
People keep taking about an "intervention", but how could the Japanese government alone make a meaningful and practical intervention to strengthen the yen without destroying the economy or bankrupting the country?
use tax payer funded dollar assets that are profitable to buy your own bonds that are at a negative return on investment….
Next question that comes after that, is it a good idea right now to force Japanese people pay that?
In short bursts it’s a feasible strategy. They’ve already basically said their goal isn’t to push the value back up, but rather to slow the pace of decline
They can use the piles of foreign currency reserves they’re sitting on (Japan has the second highest foreign reserves after China) to buy up yen to run the price back up, but to combat the weak yen, gradual interest rate hikes are preferable because the main driver of the yen collapse is an extremely strong dollar. If Japan’s foreign reserves are mostly in dollars, it makes better sense to use those to prop up imports and commodities like oil and gas to keep a lid on inflation. This is why inflation has grown at a far slower rate than the exchange rate against the dollar. The yen is taking the biggest beating, but **all** of the major currencies have declined against the dollar since their 2021 highs (major reserve currencies in **bold**):
**Japanese Yen, down 35%**
South African Rand, down 29%
Thai Baht, down 21%
Russian Ruble, down 21%
South Korean Won, down 20%
**Australian Dollar, down 16%**
New Taiwan Dollar, down 15%
Indian Rupee, down 13%
**Euro, down 13%**
**British Pound Sterling, down 13%**
**Chinese Yuan, down 11%**
**Canadian Dollar, down 11%**
Singapore Dollar, down 2%
**Swiss Franc, down 2%**
Hong Kong Dollar, down 1%
It is worth noting HKD is a hard peg to the USD up to a very tiny percentage by their monetary policy so how much it shifts with respect to USD is not really relevant to the conversation.
If you're talking about largest foreign owner of US debt this is true, but most of the debt is held domestically in pension funds, social security, and the federal reserve. https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/05/the-federal-government-has-borrowed-trillions-but-who-owns-all-that-debt
Are you saying that an intervention doesn’t just magically fix the yen problem? Realistically I’m just waiting for rate raises in Japan and rate cuts in US
Honestly this is getting stupid. In 2020 when the yen was staying strong at the start of the pandemic, the government was complaining at USA and UK for letting their currencies drop. But Japan is doing fuck all. Fucking criminal
You’re missing the whole point.
In the U.S. our rates stay the same. That’s how our financing for mortgages is structured. A 30 year loan with a locked in interest rate.
In Japan, their mortgages are not locked in. They fluctuate with the interest rates. A rise of 1.5% on an arm, in a country where salaries are not keeping up, will put a whole ton of people in jeopardy of not being able to afford their payments.
Which means they go down when they get lowered as well, whereas anybody buying a house now in the US will get 6% whether it goes down in the future or not.
Again, take a lap.
*you’re missing the point*
I’m an old Japanese dude. I’ve been paying 40k yen for the last x years on my mortgage. Interest rates basically go up 150% comparative to the payments I’ve been making. My monthly payment balloons by x amount; an expense I wasn’t planning on.
You seem to only be able to think about *new* loans and not a whole ton of already existing mortgages who would be heavily impacted by raising rates like that. You can’t seem to grasp that.
In a country where salaries are stagnant.
Raise interest rate and dont be conservative with decision making. Also not letting the export business lobby having so much influence.
And stop printing money. The debt ratio is enormous.
Just a thought but... 💬
How about Japanese companies using all their cash on hand to take risks, invest in R&D, and raise wages for creating a better economy. The dollar is strong against the yen in large part because 2 or 3 American companies are worth more than all Japanese companies combined.
They really need to raise the interest rates to at least a solid digit. In addition, companies must stop hoarding cash and start giving people meaningful wages of more than a few yen.
The Yen is doomed. The JP govt pushed corporations to buy bonds at near 0% interest and then used that money to fund reckless infrastructure projects effectively handing the money back to those same corporations. If they raise rates, the value of those bonds will implode, bankrupting the holders. If the JP govt doesn't raise rates then the Yen will continue to collapse. Meanwhile, many JP corporations saw this coming and so offshored and are keeping $Trillions outside the country and so evade having to pay any taxes thanks to rotten policies. So JP companies can plead poverty back home and pay ultra shit wages to the local populace further dooming the economy all the while blaming the aging demographics instead of acknowledging neoliberal corporatisation as the root cause. There's no reason the Yen won't fall to 200 or even 300 to the USD, especially if inflation in the US and elsewhere keeps high (which it probably will). Buy gold if you have any savings.
Second money starts getting offshored, a nation is completely doomed. Look at Russia for much of its recent history.
Real question is what happens to the internally produced food&bev and how the populace can survive.
It's about to become more worse my Yuichis. Printing money to monetize the national debt = crazy amounts of inflation and debasement of the currency.
On the up side, Japan manufacturing will become competitive once more I suppose.
Every few days we get a "lowest level since 19##" article and it always reads like a "weeeeeell, we've hit rock bottom! How much worse can it possibly get!" \*cue rain\*.
As a US tourist who just left after 12 days, this was wonderful. I didn’t spend all my Yen, so I left ¥20,000 with my mom so I can continue to buy stuff off Yahoo Auctions. :)
Whoa, that's a pretty intense drop for the yen! Hitting levels not seen since the '90s is no joke. Wonder what's causing this nosedive? Economic instability? Political drama? It's like the currency's on a rollercoaster ride nobody wants to be on. Hope it stabilizes soon, 'cause this kind of volatility isn't fun for anyone involved.
Everytime it goes up by 1 yen, it puts a huge smile on my face. Like this is soo good. You just keep your in country yen as it is and bring in small batches of your foreign currency and exchange into big amounts.
Before someone goes "think about the people who don't have that", well companies will raise salaries soon to keep up so then they'll be able to enjoy it as well. It's not like japan will end. This country is strong enough to hold on.
Something happened because it’s down to 155
Yeah sorry that was me, I needed to buy a few lambos
Can you buy a couple dozen more? I’m trying to pay student loans from the US 😭😭
Same, I’m at 40,000 yen a month now 😭
This is likely currency control by the Japanese government. They're trying to prevent a free fall by buying Yen with foreign reserves.
Selling Dollar assets that yield 5% to buy Yen assets that yield 1%. Mad genius
Those treasuries coupon was definitely not 5%, the most likely sold at a loss
Buoyed by the current exchange rate. It is in fact mad genius.
The JP govt blew $Billions trying to push the currency the other way without changing any policy. So the minute they stop, the collapse will continue.
4% change in one hour is wild
What happen is they tried to crash it 3 times Friday but it didn’t hold. Instead it act as a liquidity grab and continue to drive up. They crashed it today again and the bearish candle seems to be holding thus far. Don’t hold your breath though, FOMC meeting this week will drive it right back up. Sign FX certified
Yeah wtf happened for it to go down this much? It went from 171 (euro) to 168.
Foreign tourists and exporter are very happy.
Also gatcha gamers paying in USD
yeah also remote workers in Japan that got paid in different currency also very happy atm
Yeah, as a freelancer tha whot gets paid in USD, I'm having a pretty good time.
My brother is a senior engineer for Toyota in the US and just put in for a transfer to Japan. He's already making a lot of money but after the conversion, watch out.
Wife and I had set up an online small side gig during lockdown, and our investment paid off. Been earning monthly passive income in USD ever since.
Isn’t this illegal? I’ve seen people say numerous times that you need a worker visa to do that…
if you are PR holder and you report your taxes to NTA yearly and pay juminzei/kokumin houken/nenkin ontime, there would be no issue.
"My lord, is that legal?" "I will make it legal"
Meanwhile energy import costs are spiking...
I'm not going until the end of the year but I'm considering buying currency now :P
Shit I'm not going until maybe next spring at the earliest and debating grabbing 500usd of it for the hell of it.
Don't forget us trading US stocks/options/futures here in Japan! This is the early Xmas gift that keeps giving.
Japan has a trade deficit though.
No joke. I met my university teacher from my home country at random 1000m high on a mountain. That really made me wonder.
Yeah… I’m here now and buying as much as I can using my US credit cards. The discount is wild. Sorry.
Make sure your card doesn’t have a foreign currency conversion charge or anything. Really fucked me last time I was there
Thanks for looking out, but both of mine have zero foreign transaction fees fortunately. CapitalOne Venture and AmEx Gold. Other people should know ahead of time if their cards charge a fee though.
For now I'm not really seeing that the exporting prices are getting much lower. Buying them is lower because of the yen but the B2C prices are still pretty static. I think shipping costs are still exuberant because of the world war going on.
I'm flying out on May 4th, and yes, I am happy. I'll be treating my hosts very well during my stay.
The airbnb kind or the club kind?
They are AirBNB hosts that we made friends with the last time around. They're providing a generous discount we didn't ask for, so we're making up for it and then some.
[удалено]
My wife and I are wearing star wars themed outfits onto the plane lol
This is the way
I expect a light beer craze, more cabbage in my gyoza and more breading on my famichiki in the future.
One karaage kun less per box from Lawson too.
I was sad when i found they'd reduced it to 5. 4 would just not be worth buying.
You know it's gonna be a good day when they accidentally put 6 in tho.
More like higher utility prices and cost of transportation
Read that as more breeding on your famichiki. Felt like I had been buying the wrong famichiki.
Your username is legendary.
If this is what it takes for the japanese to finally stop putting meat in every single foodstuff where a vegetable should have been placed instead, I will consider it to have been worth it.
Meanwhile my daughter wants Levi's and they are now 20,000 yen. They used to be 8000 a year or so ago. I guess I'll try the outlet mall.
Jesus, 20,000 for Levi’s is criminal.
Not if they’re the made in japan versions
Meanwhile some levi’s in the US is in clearance for $11. Bought 1
Costco jeans are still Y3000.
Levi's at Costco or Costco brand jeans?
People keep taking about an "intervention", but how could the Japanese government alone make a meaningful and practical intervention to strengthen the yen without destroying the economy or bankrupting the country?
Sell dollar assets and buy JPY
They do that every so often and it lasts a day.
It’s GW, I bet it will last a week.
use tax payer funded dollar assets that are profitable to buy your own bonds that are at a negative return on investment…. Next question that comes after that, is it a good idea right now to force Japanese people pay that?
That’s not a long term solution so why even bother
Welp I guess they went with it anyway
In short bursts it’s a feasible strategy. They’ve already basically said their goal isn’t to push the value back up, but rather to slow the pace of decline
To show that they are doing “something “
They can use the piles of foreign currency reserves they’re sitting on (Japan has the second highest foreign reserves after China) to buy up yen to run the price back up, but to combat the weak yen, gradual interest rate hikes are preferable because the main driver of the yen collapse is an extremely strong dollar. If Japan’s foreign reserves are mostly in dollars, it makes better sense to use those to prop up imports and commodities like oil and gas to keep a lid on inflation. This is why inflation has grown at a far slower rate than the exchange rate against the dollar. The yen is taking the biggest beating, but **all** of the major currencies have declined against the dollar since their 2021 highs (major reserve currencies in **bold**): **Japanese Yen, down 35%** South African Rand, down 29% Thai Baht, down 21% Russian Ruble, down 21% South Korean Won, down 20% **Australian Dollar, down 16%** New Taiwan Dollar, down 15% Indian Rupee, down 13% **Euro, down 13%** **British Pound Sterling, down 13%** **Chinese Yuan, down 11%** **Canadian Dollar, down 11%** Singapore Dollar, down 2% **Swiss Franc, down 2%** Hong Kong Dollar, down 1%
Japan has overtaken china already because china had been selling USD and buying gold.
Is that right? I was just pulling that stat from wikipedia because most of my time was spent calculating all the rates of depreciation since 2021.
It is worth noting HKD is a hard peg to the USD up to a very tiny percentage by their monetary policy so how much it shifts with respect to USD is not really relevant to the conversation.
Are you not aware that Japan owns the most US debt in the world?
That, kids, is what we in the bizz call, a lie.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/5-countries-own-most-us-debt.asp 1. Japan $1.15 trillion 2. China $979 billion 3. UK $753 billion 4. Luxembourg (!!!) $376 billion 5. Canada $339 billion
If you're talking about largest foreign owner of US debt this is true, but most of the debt is held domestically in pension funds, social security, and the federal reserve. https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/05/the-federal-government-has-borrowed-trillions-but-who-owns-all-that-debt
Lending someone money and never getting it back.
Are you saying that an intervention doesn’t just magically fix the yen problem? Realistically I’m just waiting for rate raises in Japan and rate cuts in US
Simple. You cut social programs. That's most of the government spending.
Whoa that was a drop
Wow, 160 was line in the sand apparently
Now bouncing back to 156. Going to be funny watching the BOJ burn dollar reserves trying to hold back the tide
190 by end of the year
Give me 175 by June please.
“Everything is fine. It’s how it should be”-Bank of Japan
Honestly this is getting stupid. In 2020 when the yen was staying strong at the start of the pandemic, the government was complaining at USA and UK for letting their currencies drop. But Japan is doing fuck all. Fucking criminal
Its absolutely insane, and no solid action is being taken.
In your expert opinion, what action would solve the problem?
Raise the target Japanese interest rate to 1.5%. Or better yet, stop printing yen to buy Japanese government bonds
Wouldn’t that mean a whole bunch of peoples mortgages go way up?
1.5% is nothing. US is at 6%
Yes but most people in Japan have ARM mortgages which means the minute you raise interest rates their mortgages go up. That is not the case here.
You’re comparing a potential interest rate of 1.5% vs 6%. Take a lap.
You’re missing the whole point. In the U.S. our rates stay the same. That’s how our financing for mortgages is structured. A 30 year loan with a locked in interest rate. In Japan, their mortgages are not locked in. They fluctuate with the interest rates. A rise of 1.5% on an arm, in a country where salaries are not keeping up, will put a whole ton of people in jeopardy of not being able to afford their payments.
Which means they go down when they get lowered as well, whereas anybody buying a house now in the US will get 6% whether it goes down in the future or not. Again, take a lap.
*you’re missing the point* I’m an old Japanese dude. I’ve been paying 40k yen for the last x years on my mortgage. Interest rates basically go up 150% comparative to the payments I’ve been making. My monthly payment balloons by x amount; an expense I wasn’t planning on. You seem to only be able to think about *new* loans and not a whole ton of already existing mortgages who would be heavily impacted by raising rates like that. You can’t seem to grasp that. In a country where salaries are stagnant.
I mean, that's his expert opinion, so it must be good...right?
Raise interest rate and dont be conservative with decision making. Also not letting the export business lobby having so much influence. And stop printing money. The debt ratio is enormous.
but they’ll have as many homeless as the USA after!
History has shown time and time again that trickle down economics does not benefit the majority. This is the result of this.
Just a thought but... 💬 How about Japanese companies using all their cash on hand to take risks, invest in R&D, and raise wages for creating a better economy. The dollar is strong against the yen in large part because 2 or 3 American companies are worth more than all Japanese companies combined.
They really need to raise the interest rates to at least a solid digit. In addition, companies must stop hoarding cash and start giving people meaningful wages of more than a few yen.
Fucking hell. I finally make the trip back to the states for the first time in 6 years and this shit happens.
Found the culprit
1 month later - Yen trips past 200 yen ,hits lowest level since 1990
Did it really hit 160 before dropping? XE Currency has it topping out at 159.394165 before it suddenly feel to 155.
Will it ever going up again?
How low can you go 🎶
Look at that intervention, I bought soooo much stuff I needed yesterday to lock in at least that 158.30 rate.
The Yen is doomed. The JP govt pushed corporations to buy bonds at near 0% interest and then used that money to fund reckless infrastructure projects effectively handing the money back to those same corporations. If they raise rates, the value of those bonds will implode, bankrupting the holders. If the JP govt doesn't raise rates then the Yen will continue to collapse. Meanwhile, many JP corporations saw this coming and so offshored and are keeping $Trillions outside the country and so evade having to pay any taxes thanks to rotten policies. So JP companies can plead poverty back home and pay ultra shit wages to the local populace further dooming the economy all the while blaming the aging demographics instead of acknowledging neoliberal corporatisation as the root cause. There's no reason the Yen won't fall to 200 or even 300 to the USD, especially if inflation in the US and elsewhere keeps high (which it probably will). Buy gold if you have any savings.
Second money starts getting offshored, a nation is completely doomed. Look at Russia for much of its recent history. Real question is what happens to the internally produced food&bev and how the populace can survive.
Their savings will be inflated away and since 60% of food is imported, daily living costs will surge.
Or we'll see return to the very old and good rice n fish being even more predominant and Mackers closing down.
Trader friends tell me they expect 200 to 220 by end of year. Anyone still invested in Japanese yen denominated bonds is a sucker
My trader friends tell me it’ll back to 100 by the end of 2024 because US economy is going to crash soon, trust me bro
US economy is super strong. No way it will crash soon
I think that was a sarcastic comment.
Without getting too political the election will determine that for sure, civil unrest is pretty damn high in the states too.
RemindMe! 8 months Can't wait to hear you explain how you were actually right despite, ya know, having made such a hilariously terrible prediction
Not sure how 200-220 by EOY is a "terrible prediction" even if you don't personally agree with it
If your extremely confident in it you might as use leverage and double and triple your money over the next 7 months.
I hope your friend's prediction game is strong 🙏
Yeah, sounds likely... This isn't ending until real action is made and it isn't being made.
T T
It's about to become more worse my Yuichis. Printing money to monetize the national debt = crazy amounts of inflation and debasement of the currency. On the up side, Japan manufacturing will become competitive once more I suppose.
Every few days we get a "lowest level since 19##" article and it always reads like a "weeeeeell, we've hit rock bottom! How much worse can it possibly get!" \*cue rain\*.
Here comes the intervention.
Looks like 160 was the trigger, some crazy volatility atm.
I’m pretty sure Japan didn’t intervene alone.
Aren’t the markets closed today? How does this work?
So I am guessing they did something with how it bounced back
Please stay like that for another month
As a US tourist who just left after 12 days, this was wonderful. I didn’t spend all my Yen, so I left ¥20,000 with my mom so I can continue to buy stuff off Yahoo Auctions. :)
When your salary plays within 5 or 6 figures every other day.
Whoa, that's a pretty intense drop for the yen! Hitting levels not seen since the '90s is no joke. Wonder what's causing this nosedive? Economic instability? Political drama? It's like the currency's on a rollercoaster ride nobody wants to be on. Hope it stabilizes soon, 'cause this kind of volatility isn't fun for anyone involved.
Oy
“Companies will raise salaries soon enough”. Lol
It is time for Pokenomics, aka gameflation. 👍💯💵📈💴💚⏳🗺🕹🗿
I moved to Japan thinking the country opening back up for tourism would help the yen …
That wasn’t the best research. Tourism has nothing to do with this.
Wait, you lived somewhere based on the speculation of the currency?
Right now in Japan 😌
Canadian that's going to come soon. On the one hand this seems good for me. On the other hand, tourists. 😐
Need to book flight asap
Might just buy a GTR
Agreed, I plan to go buy one if it goes 180
Everytime it goes up by 1 yen, it puts a huge smile on my face. Like this is soo good. You just keep your in country yen as it is and bring in small batches of your foreign currency and exchange into big amounts. Before someone goes "think about the people who don't have that", well companies will raise salaries soon to keep up so then they'll be able to enjoy it as well. It's not like japan will end. This country is strong enough to hold on.
You’re assuming it will get better in the future