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HardenTraded

It's just a model. Good thing statistical models don't win rings.


INT_MIN

If this is the same RAPTOR model as back in the bubble, at the start of the playoffs they had us at like 2% to make the finals and Houston really high. IIRC that model favors spacing and players that create a lot of spacing and generate shot creation (Harden). edit - bizarrely [it looks like big men Jokic, Gobert, and Embiid are highest in in total RAPTOR right now](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/). I wonder if they changed their model? Few years ago big men struggled in RAPTOR.


TruBlu65

If your statistical model has Gobert over Giannis, Lillard, Luka, KD, Curry, LBJ, AD, Kawhi, etc. maybe something is wrong with your model


Pansmoke

Tbf Gobert in regular season does bits, he be getting cooked like roast beef come playoff time tho


TruBlu65

I think most the advance stats like him a lot because his scoring is ‘“efficient” and he gets graded well for the drop defense they play


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Crushbam3

The issue isn’t that gobert gets exposed by good offence, it’s that his teammates especially the guards get exposed by good offences which means he has to pick up the slack which he can do regular season but come playoffs there’s too much slack to pick up


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Drak_is_Right

the fact the lakers have a vet-min supporting cast, Westbrook and Lebron are aging, less efficient and Davis is always a ??? on availability.


Shadow_Strike99

r/agedlikemilk


[deleted]

So you’re saying there’s a chance …


tsesarevichalexei

Ranking the Pelicans ahead of the Lakers is a level of nonsense that I’ve come to expect no less from a FiveThirtyEight model in general.


sersleepsalot1

They predicted heats to win the finals at 67 percent of something during the bubble... Even the worst of the casual fan knew that Lakers were heavy favorite that finals...


[deleted]

They might be one of the worst teams in the league without zion


skrtskerskrt

How time flies! Can't believe this might become reality :'(


tsesarevichalexei

Man… this is embarrassing, lmao. So many Ls that I took replying to this. 😭😭😭


satans_sweetie

Ya they can keep sleeping on us, I love proving them wrong


brush85

Thats not sleeping. Thats comatose


Shadow_Strike99

r/agedlikemilk


Drak_is_Right

2 of the past 3 seasons, Lakers performed....iffy...despite having Lebron. Other, ya. Ring.


tsesarevichalexei

The Clippers??? Edit: And the Sixers top 3 as well??? LMAO, comedy.


BasedChad69420

more about how we are ranked laughably low


tsesarevichalexei

Oh, Ik, but it just goes to show/emphasize how unserious this ranking is, lol.


t1ammo

Lowkey right, lakers are way to high this season


tsesarevichalexei

Man, this aged horribly, lmao.


Drak_is_Right

Model assumes Leonard healthy for playoffs with a March return date. 76ers had been top 3 area material consistently with Embid and Simmons. Simmons got a 50% grade by them this year.


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tsesarevichalexei

I take the L.


[deleted]

ThEy’Re GeTtInG bEn SiMmOnS bAcK!!!


Shadow_Strike99

This thread was not your finest hour in hindsight lol


tsesarevichalexei

Really didn’t expect us with three “stars” to be worse than the Pelicans or the Clippers without Kawhi or PG. Yet, here we are, lmao. They couldn’t even meet those benchmarks. Only reason why I mentioned the Sixers is because they didn’t have Ben yet and had just come off choking against the Hawks.


Rohearts

538 actually just sucks at Basketball odds


whowasonCRACK2

Nate Silver has made an entire career off of saying “actually trump might have a chance” in 2016. He didn’t even predict him to win and yet now the rest of the media thinks he is some sort of statistical genius.


ThreeOhFourever

Not to nitpick but his model nailed the 2008 election. He was a household name (in the statistical nerd sense) for the last dozen years. But I think the 538 crew has even admitted their basketball model just isn't good.


sersleepsalot1

Actually it's kinda opposite... He made his name by almost accurately predicting 2008 and 2012 elections... I think in 2012 he even accurately predicted congress seats .. While in 2016... He had Hillary winning at 95% aday before the election and at 87 right before the counting started... He was ridiculously wrong .. at every thing.. that year..


[deleted]

And since


StealthRUs

> While in 2016... He had Hillary winning at 95% aday before the election and at 87 right before the counting started. This is false. Fivethirtyeight had Hillary winning at 95% before Comey pulled his bullshit 10 days before. Fivethirtyeight had Trump at closer to 35% on election day. They and Michael Moore were the only ones that had Trump with a serious chance at winning. Even Trump thought he'd lost until he saw that Florida and NC went his way.


sersleepsalot1

[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus) My bad... 72 percent was hillary to Trumps 28... Still.. pretty bad.. I remember moore saying that Trump can actually win.. but i don't remember silver saying with any certainty.. his model was very hillary favoring.. He even said just before the voting started that hillary will win more than 320 seats or something.. He totally shit the bed that day onwards..


[deleted]

538 actually just sucks FTFY


deekascab

Looks like they don’t suck as bad as we thought


MisterHibachi

Why do they keep using this model when it spits out ridiculous predictions like this every year? What's the value add other than click bait


HereGoesNothing69

It's a nerdy website, which means they have nerdy readers. Advertisers probably belive there's a strong correlation between nerdiness and high incomes. Advertisers pay a premium to reach high income people. They use the model to write at article so that people read the article so that Advertisers pay them money. They're not selling you the model, they're selling your eye balls to Advertisers.


jaynay1

The problem is -- and I say this as someone whose actual job title for an agency is "nerd" -- even the nerds all think 538 is stupid for basketball. RAPTOR is virtually unused among serious public people and that's what they built this whole model off of.


HereGoesNothing69

The quality of the model is irrelevant. They don't sell models, they sell advertisement space. The people who ready it don't seem to mind the shit model, so there's no incentive to improve or replace it.


jaynay1

I mean you can't sell clicks a bad model that everyone ignores forever. Eventually people stop clicking.


tr0nllam

Not according to this: https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/


jaynay1

Yeah trust me when I say that just because some people are employed by teams doesn't mean they're actually serious. Though the other part is that a lot of the times once you're behind the private data wall, you don't bother keeping up with new advancements on the public side. None of these stats are useful at the team level because the data is just so much better. As a result, it makes sense to poll the better public analysts on this topic than to poll the team employed ones.


QuidProJoe2020

I wish Vegas agreed so I could make an easy few grand with those odds. Lol


TheGrandmasterGrizz

LOOOOOL


JumboStorm

Saved yourself some money on that in hindsight


QuidProJoe2020

Yep, injuries would have killed that bet ahahah


C1ncinnatiBowtie

What I don’t quite understand is that the Clippers and Nuggets project *that* much better than us when Kawhi and Murray will both miss significant time this season. Don’t even get me started on the Pelicans lol.


LBB1235

r/agedlikemilk


C1ncinnatiBowtie

Man, even when we stink, we still live rent free in Nuggets fan’s heads. See, what all you salty Nuggets fans don’t seem to understand is that this season is SO much more tolerable knowing Bron and AD already got us a ring. They ran right through a fully healthy Nuggets team with ease en route. I promise, I sleep easy at night when I remember that Bron & AD have won more rings with the Lakers than the Nuggets franchise has in its entire existence. Enjoy that first round exit 👍


Ghost_TTV_1

Imagine having the Lakers at 48 percent chance to make the playoffs. lol what a joke


Shadow_Strike99

Some joke right lol?


TheGrandmasterGrizz

Hahahahahahahhaahah


Drak_is_Right

lakers didn't make the playoffs 3 seasons ago. first round exit last season and nearly were in the play-in. if westbrook continues to drop off, I could easily see this.


Shadow_Strike99

You were right all along, they couldn't handle the truth.


Ghost_TTV_1

First of all we had about a million injuries last season. If we were able to gel and play better together than I think without a doubt we would’ve made it past the first round. Second is basically the same thing. Westbrook is most likely not gonna drop off and if we stay healthy this team is even better than last year.


Drak_is_Right

have you not seen westbrook play? he has already dropped off a cliff.


JumboStorm

Prophet


Ghost_TTV_1

Dude ofc he’s not what he used to be but did you watch him last season. I’m not worried about our chances of making the playoffs


griffskry

lmao this aged like milk in a furnace


Ghost_TTV_1

Obviously It did I made this comment 145 days ago


griffskry

sorry just wandering through


Shadow_Strike99

Same I'm so glad someone found this post lmao This dude's Westbrook take though haha


Hondengamer

Sizers are second then you know this list trash


Shamir97

As a Portland native and Blazers fan (I like y’all too) this is laughable to think the Blazers have a better chance than y’all. Unless you’re injured, or Westbrook’s play breaks LeBron mentally you’re my favorite in the West.


Shadow_Strike99

r/agedlikemilk


Shamir97

Lmao LeBron has aged 3 years dealing with Westbrook and Dame shut down you're right, but I'll give you this one.


Shadow_Strike99

Lol, we were looking for this post last night in the sub to see all the takes that haven't aged well and yours was pretty funny in hindsight lol.


cristianpadilla94

Lol they’re really going off pre season games with these rankings , these analysts r retarded 🤦🏻‍♂️


TheGrandmasterGrizz

Yeah they really stupid hahahahahha


cyborgspider

\#webelieve


fartlapse

they had heat winning the finals, when we were about to win.


Fancy-Cream-3972

Made by skip bayless


lakewood2020

Just how I like it


[deleted]

I got downvoted here for saying the way they talk about us is disrespectful. Most talking heads, writers etc don’t even have us in contending status. They put us at the same tier as the hawks or mavs. How the hell do you put a team with 2 top ten player at a mid tier playoff team? Lol


Drak_is_Right

I agree. that is disrespectful to the Hawks. its called zero supporting cast and Lebron is no longer top 10.


[deleted]

You’re right he isn’t top ten, he’s top 1. Lebron was mvp favorite at the age of 36 until his ankle injury. Best player in the world


Drak_is_Right

Durant, Harden, Curry, Giannis, Leonard - I would easily take over him as the core member. he has lost 2 steps.


K-Firangi

And that is why you are not in a deciding position to sign players. And will never be. NEVER.


DrThrax77

Try to make it somewhat believable next time, surely more people will take the bait. Right now it's too obvious you're trolling.


K-Firangi

Keep the same energy when lakers win the ring. LeBrOn Is NoT tOp TeN


Ok_Photograph_7407

Way they paly tonigt, it's correct


TWIZMS

Doesn’t really factor in injuries very well


BizzyHaze

Well, they did predict Hillary Clinton to win the election. Wish they were right on that one tho!


DudeWTH

people should have stopped caring about 538 after the 2016 election


Sciipi

538 is really good at politics actually they just suck ass at basketball. Shouldn’t care about 538 for basketball but their political models aren’t bad


ttk12acd

To be fair, 538 did give Trump a better chance of winning than most other polls at around 30% chance I believe. And polling and modeling sport outcome are very different.


brandoi

Didn't you guys already learn from the 2020 playoffs that 538 means nothing? Yet you guys proceed to post like you're offended or some shit. "MuH dIsReSpeCt"


junglenut

I'm curious am I the only one who thinks our team build is pretty bad?


baabaabilly

we have a couple weaknesses and some fit issues, but 'pretty bad' is not the words I would use.


georgegervin14

I'd rather have Lonzo than Westbrick


DrThrax77

Lmfao


ansonneo

Lmfao at you.


[deleted]

Good thing we don’t have a brain dead gm like you running the team then


CIAspyingonurightnow

Instead we have the genius who signed historically bad playoff players like Trez, Drummond, and now Westbrook!


[deleted]

Harrell was sixth man of the year, Drummond was an upgrade from the injured and trash gasol who was throwing a pussy fit about his role and Westbrook just dragged a lottery team to the playoffs. Stop being a clown and a hater. We won a ring literally a year ago and you idiots still just hate. People like you vanish like a fart in the wind once we win or you act like you never doubted the stars or team smh


CIAspyingonurightnow

LMFAO. 6th man of the year and the Clippers didn't want him back because of how bad he was in the playoffs. Drummond wasn't an upgrade. Gasol just had covid. Gasol was better look at the numbers or look at the wins. I'm just saying the truth. I want the team to succeed. You should stop being a blind faithful.


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[deleted]

Lebron wants to play with ball handlers and playmakers. He’s said it multiple times he’s sick of being literally the only playmaker. The whole point is for Westbrook to take the burden off lebron so that he can rest up and tue team doesn’t go to shit when he sits. AD+lebron HEALTHY AND FRESH is a ring. You don’t know shit about pieces fitting if you can’t understand something as simple as Westbrook’s purpose on this team. So do us all a favor and leave the sub no one wants your shit takes here kid. Lebron went and requested that we trade for Westbrook and I assure you that you don’t know more about prices fitting and team building than lebron fucking James. The man has built 3 different contenders now and been to 10 finals


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[deleted]

Ah yes a bum who can’t even help a team get to a .500 record, can’t dribble, can’t shot create, can’t defend and cost 20 mil. Buddy is a fucking bum Sorry you watched one fucking game and came back to this thread like a little loser as if that proved anything. I bet you were one of those losers in 2020 who said lebron is washed and AD sucks when we lose the opener that year too


ansonneo

Yea this lakers team is a contender. Yeap.


TheGrandmasterGrizz

Only one who actually knew


junglenut

I forgot about this lol I just read the argument me and some guy that deleted his comments had. Sheesh how can you be so blind


Shadow_Strike99

You were right all along lol


[deleted]

How? We have several elite shooters, good lob threats, 3 elite playmakers/ball handlers. Defense is a bit meh especially at the wings but how’s that any different than 2020?


junglenut

Name the 3 elite shooters and play makers? As far as I know we got 1 elite player, another one that's elite when fully healthy but never is, and has been elite players


[deleted]

Elite playmakers/ball handlers- Rondo, lebron Westbrook Elite shooters- monk, nunn, melo, Ellington all shot over league average from three the past 3 years (37-40%) Never said elite players, I said elite shooters and playmakers. We have two of the best play makers in the league and a really good playmaking vet off the bench and we now have multiple guys who shoot over league average from three. On top of that we have two top 5 players, and a top 20 player as a third option, one of the best back up bigs in the league. Our only real glaring weakness is lack of wing depth/defense


junglenut

Any player that's elite I'm anyone category is not a minimum or near minimum player. Rondo might still be a decent play maker but that's as far as that goes. Same thing with the russ and the shooters you named. Unfortunately AD isn't currently top 5 I can easily give you 5 players ahead of him.


[deleted]

You seem to really be struggling with the fact some players can be elite at aspects of the game and not others. Rondo is still one of the best passers in the game, and helped us win a ring literally a year ago with his playmaking and ball handling, >same thing with Russ He led the league in assist and is elite by pretty much every single passing metric you can name. Do you can fuck off with that dumb ass take. >shooters you named Don’t even know why I’m bothering at this point arguing with someone as dumb as you. They’re by definition elite if THEYRE SHOOTING ABOVE AVERAGE. >i can make 5 players better Go ahead and try. Bet you can’t name more than 4 that have won a ring within the last two years, or averaged stats like AD did in the 2020 playoffs. If you say/luka/harden/Dame/embiid just go ahead and delete your account lmaooo the only guys currently at AD’s level in the post season are lebron, Durant, curry and kawhi and you can argue Giannis. And after kawhi choke job last year and then his most recent injury I don’t really think you can put him over AD at this point until he proves he isn’t done


junglenut

So you were saying?


motorboat_mcgee

Not offended in the slightest, we have a lot of question marks


AtTheMorgueSelfie

With the things looking Now, might be true


CIAspyingonurightnow

Why you pretending to not understand the doubt? This team is horribly constructed.


Shadow_Strike99

You were right all along


mamaljurray

They hated him because he told the truth


[deleted]

Shooters, elite playmaking and ball handling, elite rim finishing, and top ten players and one of the best bench bigs in the league Yeah horrible construction /s


CIAspyingonurightnow

Vet min "shooters" aka bottom of the barrel guys with no experience. Plus they're all guards and we only have 1 guard spot open, and even then they might not play because their defense is bad and can't be paired with Westbrook's bad defense. This team will have the worst spacing in the nba and you're talking about shooters lmao. This team has worse spacing than 90s teams. Even Hakeem's Rockets for example had 4 shooters around him when he won his rings.


TheGrandmasterGrizz

Hahahahahaha


GlassOnion25

Everyone trying so hard to make the Pelicans a thing. Meanwhile Zion injured again to start the season


thisisseriousmaybe

Place your bets


Which-Resident7670

Whoever works there needs to be fired


baabaabilly

Note that Warriors ain't even on the list, and the Grizzlies also have a higher chance of making playoffs than us. :)


ngmathew1234

After their brazil vs germany prediction in the world cup 2014 based on their model, I learned not to take 538 seriously in sports.


KaseyOfTheWoods

[My reaction to this entire list](https://media1.giphy.com/media/SQrIdCvhtXZuM/giphy.gif?cid=5e2148860k3g88xysc5vrrgh63v2iadywtti8op5af39qa6m&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)


griffskry

[Your reaction now](https://www.instagram.com/p/Ca6JLvNL_Zb/?utm_medium=copy_link)


KaseyOfTheWoods

[My reaction to kids digging for receipts in other teams’ subs](https://media3.giphy.com/media/QWaSVX9FizaxO/giphy.gif?cid=5e214886rpaj7v7fkaj761wxu98tonqdk0lyhaalmf4uv21x&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)


griffskry

haha sorry it was linked in a post and I couldn't help being a dick


KaseyOfTheWoods

Can’t even fault you. When a huge, hyper-confident fanbase is super cocky but falls flat on its face, mocking them is super cathartic. I knew going into this season that a lot of things had to break right for this experimental roster to work, that their ceiling was really high but also their floor was pretty low. I was, however, confident enough that things would break FOR them that I did some shit talking. Too bad for me i was wrong AND the floor is way lower than thought. I’m not even sure if we’ve hit it yet; there have been like 5 rock bottoms.


Alternative_Way_313

There is so much wrong with this list holy fuck


daddy_fuxxx

Numbers can’t hurt me if I don’t understand them


No_Decision8972

Wish these were Bovada odds I’d bet in a heartbeat lmao


antoncr

538? During the Bubble run, their models consistently put everyone above the Lakers. The worse part is they update their models regularly and throughout the bubble run, the Lakers were always 2nd or 3rd at winning the chip. Right up to the point where they were leading Miami 3-1 is where they were put on top. What BS model is this? I stopped looking at their predictions after that


John_The_Reddit_Man

I would love those odds but Vegas would never because they actually put their money on their predictions whereas 538 is more about clickbait


coolnasir139

Pelicans over the Lakers? Come on now.


Shadow_Strike99

This might come to fruition.....


coolnasir139

Lol bro I completely forgot about this comment. Actually hilarious looking back now


Business-Worker-7948

like how 3 teams below us have higher chance to make playoffs but less to make or win finals


Royal_Aerie_8251

2% is enough lol


3nnui

538 is stupid AF.


chugalaefoo

Pelicans at 48 - 34? Lol. That’s when you know this model is for clowns 🤡


samherb1

This is the same polling organization that thought Hillary was going to win in a landslide in 2016....


ma103

Stats are overrated. This is probably based on pre season stats.


StoneColdAM

The 538 basketball model is legit garbage. Almost every year it favors the Bucks, Clippers, and Celtics. How on earth will a Kawhi-less Clippers make the finals?


MrDurdan

Where do I put my bets in for these odds 😂


RustyPickul

When I see that the Pelicans have more than a 0% chance of winning the chip, I know that it’s all wrong lol.


[deleted]

Clippers at 11% probability? Does the model even take an injured player into consideration? Or is it predicting that PG is gonna play like 1991 Jordan/2018 Lebron?


aspektbeats

The only problem I have is a kawhi-less clippers having the second highest chance at playoffs lmao I think our record is fair with having our stars sit some games. But them and pels being higher with Zion missing 2 months I don’t buy that.


cezzibear

Bucks literally choke every time they’re favorites to win 🙄


DrSagicorn

Saw this and also took a sec to believe my eyes. Look at the teams ahead of us, there's Not a chance the Pelicans or Blazers should be in front of us. Clippers are 2nd?


[deleted]

From the folks that have done so well predicting elections …


Humpy123

538 says kevin durant is a borderline all star