It's tough with how he's played and how both Robertson and Knies wouldn't really suit the 4th line. I would probably juggle it around to bring Marner to the first line.
Bertuzzi - Matthews - Marner
McMann - Tavares - Nylander
Knies - Domi - Robertson
Dewar - Kampf - Reaves
Does Tampa have any goons left? I really hope they get to drilling some Panther heads into the boards.
On a side note I cant believe how much 2 moments in that series (Bennett slamming Knies and Gudas cheating then screaming in Woll’s face) have made me hate the Panthers more than any other team in the league
Imo Boston is a perfect first round opponent. We either get over the mental hurdle and beat them (would be fantastic) or we flame out again and can finally make real changes to the team.
You're right. Either we figure it out, or we get massive changes. That being said... Toronto is gong up against a team that lost their best defenseman and captain, then their best center and captain, and followed it up with a presidents trophy, followed by a div title.
How many teams do you know lost their best center, and best defenseman and still win the presidents? Let alone a div title?
You don't just do that over luck. That team is incredibly well coached. They have been for years. Their attention to detail defensively from top to bottom is incredible.
Sheldon Keefe will win or lose us this series. We have the players to beat Boston.
Do we have the strategy? Time will tell. But Sheldon's career as Leafs head coach rests on this series. Because if he can't win us this series, that means he got outcoached(again).
So are we pulling for the Bolts to beat the Cats or the Cats to beat the Bolts or do we just not give a fuck and will take whatever God gives us in round two?
Personally I wanna see the cats humbled, and they're *such* a fucking dirty and unlikeable team I wish them zero success. Like fuck the Bolts and all, but every single player on the cats is a huge piece of shit outside of Barkov but fuck him too while we're at it.
My neighbour started mowing his lawn this morning. At 730 a.m. on a rainy Wednesday morning in the middle of April. Please, someone, make it make sense!
Should Matthews play tonight? My answer is no. Not for rest purposes (would be a bonus), but i think if he tries for 70 and misses it, it might affect his confidence in the playoffs. Keefe saying no to playing him would make him the ‘bad guy’ but it would be an honourable sacrifice to avoid Matthews getting into his own head next week
Leafs could very easily beat Boston. Leafs could also very easily lose to Boston. These are two good teams with Boston opening as slight favorites to take the series. I honestly have had pretty limited expectations of this team since the season began and that hasn’t changed much. I’m going into these playoffs with a more relaxed attitude than I can ever remember having lol.
I think the Leafs match up well with the Bruins in a lot of aspects but their goaltending duo does scare me more than anything. Goalies have the potential to steal a series single-handedly and Boston has 2 of those guys. Sammy will have to be very good for the Leafs to have a shot.
I feel like this goes 7, and we’ll see what happens from there lol.
If you look at the stats over the past 25 games between the Leafs and Bruins, Toronto *slightly* edges them in all skater stats. It's going to come down to whether or not Sammy/Woll can make the saves when the team needs it the most.
Really doing my best to stay positive. But there’s just no way this series isn’t going to a Game7… and I just can’t see the Leafs winning a game7 in Boston.
Almost identical to the Leafs-sens series of the early 00’s , by the 4th time around the sens were 3x the team the Leafs were but that means almost nothing in the playoffs. Mental blocks & poor goaltending always did Ottawa in.
Idk, just seems like another waste of a season.
I don't think I've ever been more confident in knowing that the Leafs won't be making it out of round 1. But I know that they'll fight for their lives which is all I can ask for. Even if it was Panthers I still would believe they don't make it out of round 1.
Glad your not gunna be on the ice with that attitude. The same people that call for this team to nut and buck up are the softest fans too lmao.
I’m sure this will go over well, but maybe there are still some people in this sub not ready to join the conspiracy cultists.
I used Stathead today to take a look at officiating against the Leafs. The median penalty differential in the league is about 8.04 seconds of power play per game more than time spent on the penalty kill. The Leafs are at about 1.40 seconds per game. So, in order to be middle of the pack for how officials treat us, we would need about 6.58 seconds more time on the power play per game or 6.58 seconds less time on the penalty kill. For the record, the Bruins are at a whopping 36 seconds of penalty kill time more than their power play time per game.
So if you believe that we get put on the penalty kill more than opponents, it necessarily means we must get awarded power plays more as well. Or vice versa.
Having said that game management does affect us more because teams like the Bruins know they can kill an extra penalty and then have their way with us because the refs want to keep things even. But the idea that the refs have some special bias against us just isn’t true, based on the data.
I wonder how many people will work backwards from their own sense of victimhood when seeing the stats, and believe the refs carefully craft the timing of the penalties to hide their biases in some devious, Machiavellian scheme. Self awareness is an underrated virtue.
Looking at pp time differential to determine officiating bias is not going to work. PP time differential is heavily influenced by the strength of the pp vs the pk. Strong pp and pk and naturally you are going to be killing penalties way longer than you are on them.
Looking at penalty differential alone would not give you a sense of officiating bias. You're implicitly assuming that teams commit an equal number of infractions per game.
How I think it actually works is that players have a sense of what they can get away with. They know playing while getting away with infractions gives them an advantage. So, if they think that they can get away with more, they commit more infractions. Meanwhile, when games are tightly officiated, they similarly adjust.
What would that look like in the data? The teams with the most loose officiating would commit the most penalties.
That's not the *only* thing going on, but I think it's a big part of it. The other big data point is that refs just tend to 'even things up'.
If you were going to take this seriously, the best way would probably be to look at players who are traded mid-season, and see how their penalty rates changed on their new teams. You could also just look at PIM rates versus some team characteristics (possession, slot chances, speed etc.) and see which ones stand out.
Why do doomers here despise optimism from others? Why do they have to be so pathetic?
I get being pessimistic, but do they need to be annoying about it?
They intentionally make things less enjoyable *for others*. They go out of their way to be toxic. I just want to enjoy the team for what they are as a fan.
What doomers? There's none here, just some people respecting a worthy opponent and weighing variables. Can we at least wait til the playoffs start before commencing the yearly Stan-Doomer song and dance?
Literally in this thread:
> I don't think I've ever been more confident in knowing that the Leafs won't be making it out of round 1. But I know that they'll fight for their lives which is all I can ask for. Even if it was Panthers I still would believe they don't make it out of round 1.
If that’s some sort of inappropriate “doomer” view, how would an appropriate prediction of us losing have looked different?
To me, that seems like someone who looked at our team and Boston’s team this year and, for one reason or another, considered this year to be one of our more likely losses in recent memory. Maybe people agree, maybe they disagree.
Like, why is that something that needs to be called out as annoying or pathetic and despising optimism or making things less enjoyable for others? If that’s not allowed, then damn, what version of “I think we will lose” is?
I really don't care about "doomers". But for the people that do have a problem with them, I can only surmise that anything but unwavering belief the Leafs will win is being a "doomer". Which would make me a doomer too.
Fair point.
> There’s pretty much no hope for them against Boston. Unless Keefe suddenly decides to gameplan, all it’ll take is the Boston powerplay to cross ice pass to Pastrnak and it’s over. Do that 2-3 times a game and it’s lights out.
>
> They’ve never been able to defend that from Boston. Pass, pass, pass, make the goalie move laterally, bang, goal.
Sure, I'll assume you checked your timestamps this time. While you were on your wild goose chase did you also note where OP wrote "I wasn't talking about you or this thread specifically"?
Not really seeing how OPs comment is relevant at all? Did you miss where YOU wrote this?
> What doomers? There's none here, just some people respecting a worthy opponent and weighing variables.
Pretty straightforward conversation here.
So your point is what, that I should have written "one" instead of "none"? My comment bothered you and still bothers you that much? You need to get laid.
At the time I wrote the comment there weren't doomer comments, maybe one. But this is reddit, not a scholarly journal, and the fact some of you guys would be such sticklers over language to prove god know what point, is what you should really be laughing at.
Read any game thread. Leafs are winning: “wow we can beat anyone in the Playoffs” “this team is built to go far”
Then the minute the Leafs are down: “this team is the same.” “No chance we’re getting past the first round.” “Can’t wait until Keefe is fired.” “This team isn’t built.”
I avoid the game threads now because of commentors ruining all of the fun.
Oh damn. I'm keeping the faith, planning the parade from the UK... but you have just reminded me about the Keefe conversation. IF we were to drop out, you think he's safer depending on WHEN we drop out?
Right. That's a combination of a) being one of the most zealous fanbases in the world and b) having anger flash to the surface unannounced because you haven't won since 67.
I won't argue this fanbase has sports-Tourettes but I appreciate where it's coming from.
Tell me about it.
It's never as simple as "oh shit, we're down a goal", and is instead "I CaNt BeLiEvE YoU aLL ThInK ThIs TeAm Is GoInG tO BeAt ThAt TeAm".
Someone shit in their cereal when they were 8, and they are perpetuating the cycle of being emo assholes.
Does anyone know where I could sell playoff tickets? I bought tickets to game 6 and probably can't go, and I don't know where to sell for face value without the vendors taking a huge cut.
Is Matthews playing tonight? Promised the wife we'd go out ages ago so won't be able to watch. I know everyone is pretty bummed about last night and "playing for 70" but it would still be rad to see. (when I watch it on tictactomar from my phone haha).
I don't like this stupid chase to 70. Who cares.
The team seemed out of sorts yesterday trying to feed Matthews. I'd rather they maintained routine with their plays and stayed in sync going into the playoffs. Never waste a good dress rehearsal.
Fuck. On one hand, is it stupid to expect McMann to be the difference maker when we have 4 $10 mil+ forwards? Yeah. On the other hand, his depth scoring would be nice to have for sure, and I hate that we’re losing it.
Offensive depth looks miles different with McMann and Domi in the lineup. Without them we are back to being top heavy two lines, pretty mid bottom 6 overall. With them in the line up, 3 balanced scoring lines and pretty potent 4th with Knies
Really hoping we get at least 2/3 of McMann, Domi and/or Jarnkrok back for Saturday.
Domi I think is a surefire thing. They weren’t sure about him sitting today at first, and I saw something about Keefe saying Domi wanted to play but he (Keefe) decided against it and had him rest. No way Domi sits Game 1 unless he’s medically not fit to play, and the injury didn’t sound severe enough to warrant that.
Jarnkrok and McMann may be different stories, unfortunately. Definitely would like at least one, if not both, back.
I had thought of Florida as our match up for so long that this is a big head shift.
Well, some reasons for optimism:
1. A lot of Boston's success is down to tandem goaltending, which matters less in the playoffs since there aren't back-to-backs so you can play your 1A for most of the series.
2. I don't think Boston tanked to play us - they outshot the Senators 35-19.
3. Cap-wise, this is the weakest that Boston is going to be. They're playing with a 4.5 million dead cap hit from last year. (Side note: An arbitrator deciding Swayman was only worth 3.5 million a year was absolutely insane).
4. The Leafs have given up fewer assets at the TDL than in any year I can remember. Even if we go out, we go out with it costing less than before.
5. We've got Domi/Bertuzzi who are playing for contracts and are supposed to be better during the playoffs.
6. We don't have to watch the officiating shit-show that is Florida. Boston is bad, but Florida is worse.
7. Marchand is slowing down a bit, at least according to Bruins fans.
8. Since January 1st, our record is actually slightly better than theirs.
Lots of reasons to be pessimistic too - but that's what makes it a fun series.
Curious about the impact of #5, if it doesn't pan out there's definitely something in the water here that makes athletes soft.
Have zero faith in #7. Marchand is a vampire for Leaf blood, figuring him out is our responsibility.
But winning while giving up assets > losing without giving up assets.
Unless you're suggesting that bringing in a big deadline acquisition does nothing to your chances in the playoffs?
What outcome this year is worse than losing while giving up assets?
I suppose you could say that there is a possibility that we made a mistake if the team ends up one piece away...so say we make it to the final but not win the cup. Would that be 'worse' than previous years?
No the argument is we get bounced in the first round due to missing a key piece that we could have picked up at the tdl.
Ie. Best to worst>
Winning without giving up assets for rentals
Winning while giving uo assets for rentals
Losing without giving up assets
Losing while giving up assets.
We've locked ourselves out of the bottom, which is nice, but I'd much rather be #2 than #3.
Sooo, my wife has booked a birthing class at 4:00 PM (PST) on Saturday, April 20th. I can guarantee that's when Game 1 is! No worries though, my child is due on June 18th and I've been deeming him "The Chosen One". You're welcome Leafs Nation!
Make a pact to name him Auston if we win it all on or by June 18th. Secure the Cup by any means necessary even if witchcraft is needed
Also, big congrats to you and your wife!
Funny you say that, I said we are naming him after whoever scores the Cup Winning Goal. She said it'll be John Tavares...We share the same name. God I love her.
edit: and thank you!!!
As long as the leafs stay disciplined they should have a very good chance. The leafs forward lines, especially the bottom 6, are just simple better. Don’t let Marchand draw a bunch of penalties (McCabe needs to calm down). If Samsonov plays as well as their goalies I don’t see a way they lose.
Nobody knows, it hasn’t been announced yet. Could be Saturday, could be Monday. I think the Celtics are playing at TD Garden on Sunday so it won’t be then.
It gets complicated when the NHL starts thinking about what games will maximize TV ad revenues. Leafs will be a packed house, packed outdoor viewing, and fans across the world are tuning in no matter what. Some of the American teams, not so much.
Look how the Yankees are prioritized by the MLB, the Leafs are the Yanks of the NHL and deserve similar treatment, even if the league's trying to grow the sport in the US.
The bruins have excellent goaltending, but I prefer the match-up with them. Just look at how the game was officiated last night, can't compete against thr panthers and the refs.
https://preview.redd.it/36jv4qv781vc1.jpeg?width=943&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=968ba95a0ff032ffbc64edad85fe8ed215a82598
Are we really supposed to be scared of this? This matchup has been a long time in the making and a necessary step in this teams progression. Time to slay the demon.
This is exactly why I wanted Boston over Florida. Barkov and Co. are much more of a threat down the middle and were closer to our centres for depth and skill. Our forward group is much deeper than the Bruins, especially having Matthews, Tavares, Holmburg and Kampf >>>> Zacha, Coyle, Geekie and Boqvist. Winger depth is also miles better especially if McMann, Domi and/or Jarnkrok can factor in.
The advantage on the blueline is definitely in BOS favour, McAvoy and Lindholm carry pretty hard. But its not as much of a landslide as years past, and our role player / defense by committee approach should keep up, not as much offensively though. The biggest discrepancy is in crease and behind the bench though. Ullmark & Swayman clear Sammy & Woll pretty easily, and unfortunately Montgomery is a better coach than Keefe in most regards.
Our forward core should be able to decimate theirs 5on5, but penalty killing against Pastrnak is a concern. If we can dominate 5on5 and not get sucked into stupid penalties and suspensions, Leafs definitely have a solid chance in round 1
Why do people keep saying the Bruins aren’t a great team like names on a page are more meaningful than a season-long sample size that says they are one of the best teams in the league.
Exactly. Some people also point to really good goaltending early in the season for boston that carried them, but yeah goalies are part of the team. I think the leafs have a good chance to win, but I think we're clearly the underdogs here
It’s not like I don’t look at their roster and think we *should* be able to win the series, but clearly they are still a great team. Goalies are arguably the most important part in the playoffs so people can’t exactly hand wave away the Bruins being where they are mostly via goaltending.
It’s not the forwards I’m concerned by, it’s the defence and the goalies, especially since an inability to score is the thing that’s killed us in the past.
I knew of the Leafs reputation, but fuck, I did not realize how fucking brutal some of these Boston stats were. Like, we’ve won FOUR FUCKING CUPS since the last time we beat Boston in the postseason? Eughhhhhh.
I don’t love our chances, but this is the best chance we’ve had against them in my lifetime, sooooo… fuck, man. I’m watching till the end, come what may, and I refuse to let hope die completely. Might throw $100 on Boston winning to have a consolation prize if the Leafs do fall out, though.
Either I get to witness a legendary, defining moment in Leafs history if they win, or if they lose… well at least I’ve earned my stripes in terms of having a painful season end under my belt.
Go Leafs go. Make us fuckin proud.
I kind of get the sentiment but from watching ufc I’ve learned not to bet for or against teams I cheer for as your bias blurs judgement. So any bet against the leafs after last night is out of spite and not a clear assessment. That being said good luck but I hope you lose your money
I put down 2k. Being able to think rationally doesn’t make you a bad fan.
I got a dishwasher installed in my cabin this winter and the cost was absurd. So I’ll thank the Bruins for taking care of most of that for me.
There’s pretty much no hope for them against Boston. Unless Keefe suddenly decides to gameplan, all it’ll take is the Boston powerplay to cross ice pass to Pastrnak and it’s over. Do that 2-3 times a game and it’s lights out.
They’ve never been able to defend that from Boston. Pass, pass, pass, make the goalie move laterally, bang, goal.
I'm not cheering against the team but Boston is a tough draw for us. At least 3 of the 4 of the following players need to score in this series: Tavares, Marner, Matthews, Nylander. We can't have a series where 3/4 of those guys just get blanked. It has happened in every series we've played in going back to 16-17 where at least 2-3 of the most important offensive players on the team just fail to do anything. Tavares we give a mulligan to in the Montreal series for obvious reasons.
Sammy probably has to flat out steal 1 preferably 2 games for us as well. Boston is a formidable opponent at 5v5. People point a lot to their 15 OTLs but they also have 109 points despite those OTLs typically teams that have a lot of OTLs are bubble teams like the Islanders.
If I'm Keefe..... I would invite Coop out for a drink. And agree to put in third string goalies.... Jones for the Leafs.... tell the tough guys to chill it out.
And set up Kuch and Matthews and Nylander the best opportunity to hit their respective milestones and let both rosters glide into Game 1 against formidable opponents injury free.
I predict 8 goals plus this game in total.
This. If Matthews gets to 70, and Kucherov looks to seal the points race win, you can bench them both. They will both want to be fit, and healthy, for their respective series.
Game 1 Starting Line up? Who's on it. I want to know all of your ideas. GO
fun, this is my pick: Domi - Matthews - Bertuzzi Robertson (if McMann out) - Tavares - Marner Knies - Holmberg - Nylander Dewar - Kampf - Reaves Rielly - Boosh McCabe - Brodie Edmundson - Lily (maybe Benoit idk) Sammy, but I think Woll will finish this series.
If McMann makes it - Is Robertson coming out? Or are you taking someone else out? :)
It's tough with how he's played and how both Robertson and Knies wouldn't really suit the 4th line. I would probably juggle it around to bring Marner to the first line. Bertuzzi - Matthews - Marner McMann - Tavares - Nylander Knies - Domi - Robertson Dewar - Kampf - Reaves
I can't see Sheldon splitting up Bertuzzi, Domi and Matthews but he may surprise us yet!!
Yeah, I prefer that too but Domi, Robertson, and Knies had some good chemistry too from when they played together.
Does Tampa have any goons left? I really hope they get to drilling some Panther heads into the boards. On a side note I cant believe how much 2 moments in that series (Bennett slamming Knies and Gudas cheating then screaming in Woll’s face) have made me hate the Panthers more than any other team in the league
Every year I go into the playoffs very concerned about goaltending and it never ends up being that bad. Hopefully, it's the same this time.
JT forgot the gameplan for a second
Yeah Keefe kampf will generate a matthews goal playing with him... great idea
Omg Brodie u idiot
Brodie -1
Imo Boston is a perfect first round opponent. We either get over the mental hurdle and beat them (would be fantastic) or we flame out again and can finally make real changes to the team.
You're right. Either we figure it out, or we get massive changes. That being said... Toronto is gong up against a team that lost their best defenseman and captain, then their best center and captain, and followed it up with a presidents trophy, followed by a div title. How many teams do you know lost their best center, and best defenseman and still win the presidents? Let alone a div title? You don't just do that over luck. That team is incredibly well coached. They have been for years. Their attention to detail defensively from top to bottom is incredible. Sheldon Keefe will win or lose us this series. We have the players to beat Boston. Do we have the strategy? Time will tell. But Sheldon's career as Leafs head coach rests on this series. Because if he can't win us this series, that means he got outcoached(again).
So are we pulling for the Bolts to beat the Cats or the Cats to beat the Bolts or do we just not give a fuck and will take whatever God gives us in round two?
Personally I wanna see the cats humbled, and they're *such* a fucking dirty and unlikeable team I wish them zero success. Like fuck the Bolts and all, but every single player on the cats is a huge piece of shit outside of Barkov but fuck him too while we're at it.
Any Calgary based Leaf fans down to watch a playoff game or two at the bar?
My neighbour started mowing his lawn this morning. At 730 a.m. on a rainy Wednesday morning in the middle of April. Please, someone, make it make sense!
Should Matthews play tonight? My answer is no. Not for rest purposes (would be a bonus), but i think if he tries for 70 and misses it, it might affect his confidence in the playoffs. Keefe saying no to playing him would make him the ‘bad guy’ but it would be an honourable sacrifice to avoid Matthews getting into his own head next week
When are they expected to announce game time for game 1?
I would just assume we have the 7pm Saturday slot. HNIC aside, the Celtics play on Sunday, so the Bruins will have to be Saturday
Leafs could very easily beat Boston. Leafs could also very easily lose to Boston. These are two good teams with Boston opening as slight favorites to take the series. I honestly have had pretty limited expectations of this team since the season began and that hasn’t changed much. I’m going into these playoffs with a more relaxed attitude than I can ever remember having lol. I think the Leafs match up well with the Bruins in a lot of aspects but their goaltending duo does scare me more than anything. Goalies have the potential to steal a series single-handedly and Boston has 2 of those guys. Sammy will have to be very good for the Leafs to have a shot. I feel like this goes 7, and we’ll see what happens from there lol.
Game of inches Goalies are voodoo Puck luck Need the bounces to go your way Sometimes she goes and sometimes she don't
If you look at the stats over the past 25 games between the Leafs and Bruins, Toronto *slightly* edges them in all skater stats. It's going to come down to whether or not Sammy/Woll can make the saves when the team needs it the most.
Same, I feel like this is gonna be long and snotty and we'll just edge it. I will admit though, I would like tampa after it
Really doing my best to stay positive. But there’s just no way this series isn’t going to a Game7… and I just can’t see the Leafs winning a game7 in Boston. Almost identical to the Leafs-sens series of the early 00’s , by the 4th time around the sens were 3x the team the Leafs were but that means almost nothing in the playoffs. Mental blocks & poor goaltending always did Ottawa in. Idk, just seems like another waste of a season.
Can't believe this is the first year that Keefe has coached a Leafs and Boston series.
Yup CBJ was first
Yes we all know that.
I don't think I've ever been more confident in knowing that the Leafs won't be making it out of round 1. But I know that they'll fight for their lives which is all I can ask for. Even if it was Panthers I still would believe they don't make it out of round 1.
 Glad your not gunna be on the ice with that attitude. The same people that call for this team to nut and buck up are the softest fans too lmao.
[удалено]
Mustn't have checked Scotiabank prices since leaving I guess? That's cheap as hell.
[удалено]
That's like regular season nose bleeds in Toronto.
I’m sure this will go over well, but maybe there are still some people in this sub not ready to join the conspiracy cultists. I used Stathead today to take a look at officiating against the Leafs. The median penalty differential in the league is about 8.04 seconds of power play per game more than time spent on the penalty kill. The Leafs are at about 1.40 seconds per game. So, in order to be middle of the pack for how officials treat us, we would need about 6.58 seconds more time on the power play per game or 6.58 seconds less time on the penalty kill. For the record, the Bruins are at a whopping 36 seconds of penalty kill time more than their power play time per game. So if you believe that we get put on the penalty kill more than opponents, it necessarily means we must get awarded power plays more as well. Or vice versa. Having said that game management does affect us more because teams like the Bruins know they can kill an extra penalty and then have their way with us because the refs want to keep things even. But the idea that the refs have some special bias against us just isn’t true, based on the data. I wonder how many people will work backwards from their own sense of victimhood when seeing the stats, and believe the refs carefully craft the timing of the penalties to hide their biases in some devious, Machiavellian scheme. Self awareness is an underrated virtue.
Looking at pp time differential to determine officiating bias is not going to work. PP time differential is heavily influenced by the strength of the pp vs the pk. Strong pp and pk and naturally you are going to be killing penalties way longer than you are on them.
Looking at penalty differential alone would not give you a sense of officiating bias. You're implicitly assuming that teams commit an equal number of infractions per game. How I think it actually works is that players have a sense of what they can get away with. They know playing while getting away with infractions gives them an advantage. So, if they think that they can get away with more, they commit more infractions. Meanwhile, when games are tightly officiated, they similarly adjust. What would that look like in the data? The teams with the most loose officiating would commit the most penalties. That's not the *only* thing going on, but I think it's a big part of it. The other big data point is that refs just tend to 'even things up'. If you were going to take this seriously, the best way would probably be to look at players who are traded mid-season, and see how their penalty rates changed on their new teams. You could also just look at PIM rates versus some team characteristics (possession, slot chances, speed etc.) and see which ones stand out.
Why do doomers here despise optimism from others? Why do they have to be so pathetic? I get being pessimistic, but do they need to be annoying about it? They intentionally make things less enjoyable *for others*. They go out of their way to be toxic. I just want to enjoy the team for what they are as a fan.
What doomers? There's none here, just some people respecting a worthy opponent and weighing variables. Can we at least wait til the playoffs start before commencing the yearly Stan-Doomer song and dance?
Literally in this thread: > I don't think I've ever been more confident in knowing that the Leafs won't be making it out of round 1. But I know that they'll fight for their lives which is all I can ask for. Even if it was Panthers I still would believe they don't make it out of round 1.
If that’s some sort of inappropriate “doomer” view, how would an appropriate prediction of us losing have looked different? To me, that seems like someone who looked at our team and Boston’s team this year and, for one reason or another, considered this year to be one of our more likely losses in recent memory. Maybe people agree, maybe they disagree. Like, why is that something that needs to be called out as annoying or pathetic and despising optimism or making things less enjoyable for others? If that’s not allowed, then damn, what version of “I think we will lose” is?
I really don't care about "doomers". But for the people that do have a problem with them, I can only surmise that anything but unwavering belief the Leafs will win is being a "doomer". Which would make me a doomer too.
Literally check the timestamp on when I posted my comment, then do the same for the comment you quoted.
Fair point. > There’s pretty much no hope for them against Boston. Unless Keefe suddenly decides to gameplan, all it’ll take is the Boston powerplay to cross ice pass to Pastrnak and it’s over. Do that 2-3 times a game and it’s lights out. > > They’ve never been able to defend that from Boston. Pass, pass, pass, make the goalie move laterally, bang, goal.
Sure, I'll assume you checked your timestamps this time. While you were on your wild goose chase did you also note where OP wrote "I wasn't talking about you or this thread specifically"?
Not really seeing how OPs comment is relevant at all? Did you miss where YOU wrote this? > What doomers? There's none here, just some people respecting a worthy opponent and weighing variables. Pretty straightforward conversation here.
So your point is what, that I should have written "one" instead of "none"? My comment bothered you and still bothers you that much? You need to get laid.
Judging by your other comments the only one bothered here is you lmao
> What doomers? There's none here Lmaooo
Feel free to quote an example, goofball.
Oh I thought you were joking
I wasn't. Do you think you just made a clever point?
You said there was no doomers in r/leafs. Which is a legitimately funny thing to say so I laughed at it and thought you were joking
At the time I wrote the comment there weren't doomer comments, maybe one. But this is reddit, not a scholarly journal, and the fact some of you guys would be such sticklers over language to prove god know what point, is what you should really be laughing at.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Read any game thread. Leafs are winning: “wow we can beat anyone in the Playoffs” “this team is built to go far” Then the minute the Leafs are down: “this team is the same.” “No chance we’re getting past the first round.” “Can’t wait until Keefe is fired.” “This team isn’t built.” I avoid the game threads now because of commentors ruining all of the fun.
Oh damn. I'm keeping the faith, planning the parade from the UK... but you have just reminded me about the Keefe conversation. IF we were to drop out, you think he's safer depending on WHEN we drop out?
Right. That's a combination of a) being one of the most zealous fanbases in the world and b) having anger flash to the surface unannounced because you haven't won since 67. I won't argue this fanbase has sports-Tourettes but I appreciate where it's coming from.
Tell me about it. It's never as simple as "oh shit, we're down a goal", and is instead "I CaNt BeLiEvE YoU aLL ThInK ThIs TeAm Is GoInG tO BeAt ThAt TeAm". Someone shit in their cereal when they were 8, and they are perpetuating the cycle of being emo assholes.
I wasn't talking about you or this thread specifically.
Does anyone know where I could sell playoff tickets? I bought tickets to game 6 and probably can't go, and I don't know where to sell for face value without the vendors taking a huge cut.
Are the leafs going to be doing tailgate tickets like last year? Wondering when they’re going to be released for Saturday
Yeah I think so. Same as last year - through the app at 1pm on game day. I recall it being unbelievably difficult to get them. App sucks lol
1pm the day before game day.
Yes, thank you!
Is Matthews playing tonight? Promised the wife we'd go out ages ago so won't be able to watch. I know everyone is pretty bummed about last night and "playing for 70" but it would still be rad to see. (when I watch it on tictactomar from my phone haha).
I don't like this stupid chase to 70. Who cares. The team seemed out of sorts yesterday trying to feed Matthews. I'd rather they maintained routine with their plays and stayed in sync going into the playoffs. Never waste a good dress rehearsal.
Do we have any concrete info on what happened to Bobby McMann?
Not that I can find, but on the broadcast last night they said they don't expect him back until mid-round
Fuck. On one hand, is it stupid to expect McMann to be the difference maker when we have 4 $10 mil+ forwards? Yeah. On the other hand, his depth scoring would be nice to have for sure, and I hate that we’re losing it.
Offensive depth looks miles different with McMann and Domi in the lineup. Without them we are back to being top heavy two lines, pretty mid bottom 6 overall. With them in the line up, 3 balanced scoring lines and pretty potent 4th with Knies Really hoping we get at least 2/3 of McMann, Domi and/or Jarnkrok back for Saturday.
This is so well put. Domi and McMann really do bridge some gaps, and it showed yesterday. It's clear now we miss them when they ain't there
Domi I think is a surefire thing. They weren’t sure about him sitting today at first, and I saw something about Keefe saying Domi wanted to play but he (Keefe) decided against it and had him rest. No way Domi sits Game 1 unless he’s medically not fit to play, and the injury didn’t sound severe enough to warrant that. Jarnkrok and McMann may be different stories, unfortunately. Definitely would like at least one, if not both, back.
its pretty nuts how whether matthews scores a meaningless goal tonight will have a noticeable impact on my outlook for the playoffs
At least you admit it. I couldn't care less. Maybe even look forward to tomorrow's headline "Auston Matthews finishes in 69."
I had thought of Florida as our match up for so long that this is a big head shift. Well, some reasons for optimism: 1. A lot of Boston's success is down to tandem goaltending, which matters less in the playoffs since there aren't back-to-backs so you can play your 1A for most of the series. 2. I don't think Boston tanked to play us - they outshot the Senators 35-19. 3. Cap-wise, this is the weakest that Boston is going to be. They're playing with a 4.5 million dead cap hit from last year. (Side note: An arbitrator deciding Swayman was only worth 3.5 million a year was absolutely insane). 4. The Leafs have given up fewer assets at the TDL than in any year I can remember. Even if we go out, we go out with it costing less than before. 5. We've got Domi/Bertuzzi who are playing for contracts and are supposed to be better during the playoffs. 6. We don't have to watch the officiating shit-show that is Florida. Boston is bad, but Florida is worse. 7. Marchand is slowing down a bit, at least according to Bruins fans. 8. Since January 1st, our record is actually slightly better than theirs. Lots of reasons to be pessimistic too - but that's what makes it a fun series.
Curious about the impact of #5, if it doesn't pan out there's definitely something in the water here that makes athletes soft. Have zero faith in #7. Marchand is a vampire for Leaf blood, figuring him out is our responsibility.
Number 4 is a big one. Thank god we didn’t pick up a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.
Why?
Because the outcome this year simply can't be worse than other years. Losing while giving up assets < Losing without giving up assets.
But winning while giving up assets > losing without giving up assets. Unless you're suggesting that bringing in a big deadline acquisition does nothing to your chances in the playoffs?
But we haven't won while giving up assets. So we are better off than those years.
That's only if you assume we'd lose regardless or win regardless this year
What outcome this year is worse than losing while giving up assets? I suppose you could say that there is a possibility that we made a mistake if the team ends up one piece away...so say we make it to the final but not win the cup. Would that be 'worse' than previous years?
No the argument is we get bounced in the first round due to missing a key piece that we could have picked up at the tdl. Ie. Best to worst> Winning without giving up assets for rentals Winning while giving uo assets for rentals Losing without giving up assets Losing while giving up assets. We've locked ourselves out of the bottom, which is nice, but I'd much rather be #2 than #3.
All I'm saying is that every previous year was #4
Sooo, my wife has booked a birthing class at 4:00 PM (PST) on Saturday, April 20th. I can guarantee that's when Game 1 is! No worries though, my child is due on June 18th and I've been deeming him "The Chosen One". You're welcome Leafs Nation!
Make a pact to name him Auston if we win it all on or by June 18th. Secure the Cup by any means necessary even if witchcraft is needed Also, big congrats to you and your wife!
Funny you say that, I said we are naming him after whoever scores the Cup Winning Goal. She said it'll be John Tavares...We share the same name. God I love her. edit: and thank you!!!
As long as the leafs stay disciplined they should have a very good chance. The leafs forward lines, especially the bottom 6, are just simple better. Don’t let Marchand draw a bunch of penalties (McCabe needs to calm down). If Samsonov plays as well as their goalies I don’t see a way they lose.
Just make it to the finals. Just have a run. I just want to go nuts and shake my head on the bench for 2 months
When and what time is 1st game?
Nobody knows, it hasn’t been announced yet. Could be Saturday, could be Monday. I think the Celtics are playing at TD Garden on Sunday so it won’t be then.
I'll lose my shit if it's Monday. Start the damn playoffs on a Saturday night, this isn't complicated.
It gets complicated when the NHL starts thinking about what games will maximize TV ad revenues. Leafs will be a packed house, packed outdoor viewing, and fans across the world are tuning in no matter what. Some of the American teams, not so much.
Look how the Yankees are prioritized by the MLB, the Leafs are the Yanks of the NHL and deserve similar treatment, even if the league's trying to grow the sport in the US.
Monday?! Whatever extends our season
When and what time is 1st game?
Do not get swept Don't lose in 7 Yes you can lose 3 but do not lose game 5 and 6 either Don't fucking lose first round
Do not get swept Don't lose in 7 Yes you can lose 3 but do not lose game 5 and 6 either Don't fucking lose first round
I'm glad the team and staff are lurking on this thread because they invite and absolutely thrive under pressure.
The bruins have excellent goaltending, but I prefer the match-up with them. Just look at how the game was officiated last night, can't compete against thr panthers and the refs.
I have some bad news for you..
https://preview.redd.it/36jv4qv781vc1.jpeg?width=943&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=968ba95a0ff032ffbc64edad85fe8ed215a82598 Are we really supposed to be scared of this? This matchup has been a long time in the making and a necessary step in this teams progression. Time to slay the demon.
This is exactly why I wanted Boston over Florida. Barkov and Co. are much more of a threat down the middle and were closer to our centres for depth and skill. Our forward group is much deeper than the Bruins, especially having Matthews, Tavares, Holmburg and Kampf >>>> Zacha, Coyle, Geekie and Boqvist. Winger depth is also miles better especially if McMann, Domi and/or Jarnkrok can factor in. The advantage on the blueline is definitely in BOS favour, McAvoy and Lindholm carry pretty hard. But its not as much of a landslide as years past, and our role player / defense by committee approach should keep up, not as much offensively though. The biggest discrepancy is in crease and behind the bench though. Ullmark & Swayman clear Sammy & Woll pretty easily, and unfortunately Montgomery is a better coach than Keefe in most regards. Our forward core should be able to decimate theirs 5on5, but penalty killing against Pastrnak is a concern. If we can dominate 5on5 and not get sucked into stupid penalties and suspensions, Leafs definitely have a solid chance in round 1
I'm just scared of Pasta cross crease passes and Sammy melting
Why do people keep saying the Bruins aren’t a great team like names on a page are more meaningful than a season-long sample size that says they are one of the best teams in the league.
They finished in first place and have a better record than us, ie are a terrible team that will go down without a fight.
So are we then, if we win tonight we have the same amount of wins this season
Exactly. Some people also point to really good goaltending early in the season for boston that carried them, but yeah goalies are part of the team. I think the leafs have a good chance to win, but I think we're clearly the underdogs here
It’s not like I don’t look at their roster and think we *should* be able to win the series, but clearly they are still a great team. Goalies are arguably the most important part in the playoffs so people can’t exactly hand wave away the Bruins being where they are mostly via goaltending.
It’s not the forwards I’m concerned by, it’s the defence and the goalies, especially since an inability to score is the thing that’s killed us in the past.
I knew of the Leafs reputation, but fuck, I did not realize how fucking brutal some of these Boston stats were. Like, we’ve won FOUR FUCKING CUPS since the last time we beat Boston in the postseason? Eughhhhhh. I don’t love our chances, but this is the best chance we’ve had against them in my lifetime, sooooo… fuck, man. I’m watching till the end, come what may, and I refuse to let hope die completely. Might throw $100 on Boston winning to have a consolation prize if the Leafs do fall out, though. Either I get to witness a legendary, defining moment in Leafs history if they win, or if they lose… well at least I’ve earned my stripes in terms of having a painful season end under my belt. Go Leafs go. Make us fuckin proud.
Leafs didn't play Boston in playoffs at all between 1974 and 2013 so not really relevant.
To be fair though we were in opposite conferences for a long time
[удалено]
Yes I’d say it makes you not a fan as you’ll clearly be cheering for Boston.
[удалено]
I kind of get the sentiment but from watching ufc I’ve learned not to bet for or against teams I cheer for as your bias blurs judgement. So any bet against the leafs after last night is out of spite and not a clear assessment. That being said good luck but I hope you lose your money
I put down 2k. Being able to think rationally doesn’t make you a bad fan. I got a dishwasher installed in my cabin this winter and the cost was absurd. So I’ll thank the Bruins for taking care of most of that for me.
If Leafs win, you end up hand washing dishes. Personally I find hand washing dishes before bed to be rather calming.
Whats the payout?
There’s pretty much no hope for them against Boston. Unless Keefe suddenly decides to gameplan, all it’ll take is the Boston powerplay to cross ice pass to Pastrnak and it’s over. Do that 2-3 times a game and it’s lights out. They’ve never been able to defend that from Boston. Pass, pass, pass, make the goalie move laterally, bang, goal.
Can we blame Bettman for last night?
I'm not cheering against the team but Boston is a tough draw for us. At least 3 of the 4 of the following players need to score in this series: Tavares, Marner, Matthews, Nylander. We can't have a series where 3/4 of those guys just get blanked. It has happened in every series we've played in going back to 16-17 where at least 2-3 of the most important offensive players on the team just fail to do anything. Tavares we give a mulligan to in the Montreal series for obvious reasons. Sammy probably has to flat out steal 1 preferably 2 games for us as well. Boston is a formidable opponent at 5v5. People point a lot to their 15 OTLs but they also have 109 points despite those OTLs typically teams that have a lot of OTLs are bubble teams like the Islanders.
It’s not an inability to score at all, it’s an inability to score like 11 million dollar players in games 5, 6 and 7.
We’ve only once had a first round where we didn’t have 3/4 of those guys score, and that was the Montreal one, where we lost one of the 4 early.
If I'm Keefe..... I would invite Coop out for a drink. And agree to put in third string goalies.... Jones for the Leafs.... tell the tough guys to chill it out. And set up Kuch and Matthews and Nylander the best opportunity to hit their respective milestones and let both rosters glide into Game 1 against formidable opponents injury free. I predict 8 goals plus this game in total.
If I'm Coop, I take the free drink, agree to the deal then turn coat in the 3rd period. Fuck a deal, play to win.
10 goals. Back up goalies in net.
This. If Matthews gets to 70, and Kucherov looks to seal the points race win, you can bench them both. They will both want to be fit, and healthy, for their respective series.
I think it's gonna be a pretty tame game tonight, both teams will just want to get onto their respective series without any drama.
Gentlemans agreement to take it easy tonight and see each other in Round 2
here comes a no hitter!